2.5 Demonstrate understanding of how technological modelling supports risk management

Lesley PearceTeam Solutions Auckland University

November 2010

Level 7 Curriculum

Objective• Understand how the "should" and "could"

decisions in technological modelling rely on an understanding of how evidence can change in value across contexts and how different tools are used to ascertain and mitigate risk.

Level 7 indicatorsStudents can:• discuss examples to illustrate why the status of evidence

gained from technological modelling might change across contexts

• explain why different people accept different types of evidence as valid and how this impacts on technological modelling

• explain the role of technological modelling in ascertaining and mitigating risk

• describe examples to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of technological modelling for risk mitigation.

Designers/technologists…

• they sketch, make mock-ups and rudimentary functional models, which makes it possible for them to learn about the alternative design directions and anticipate forthcoming design possibilities and challenges in a designerly manner (Cross, 2006)

• By becoming more familiar with the new project through design exploration, designers can identify project specific information needs, which give a focused agenda to the later process phases, which include meetings with the users.

Why modelling is important…

• There are no rewards in life for being the first one with the wrong answer. Imagine spending years building a product, only to learn that it missed the needs of its intended market. History is littered with the carcasses of failed products and the companies that built them - product development is indeed a risky business.

Product failures - Segway• a self-balancing personal transportation device

with two wheels launched in 2002. ”It will be to the car what the car was to the horse and buggy” Head of Segway

• Anticipated sales might hit $1 billion as fast as any company in history. The company spent about $100 million developing the product. Segway did not understand that its price point, well above $3,000 for most models and $7,000 for some, was too high to draw a mass consumer base. The other major unforeseen problem is that the Segway was classified as a road vehicle in some countries requiring licensing, while it was illegal to use on roads in other nations. From 2001 to the end of 2007, the company only sold 30,000 units of its two-wheeled scooter.

Why?

Zoo bans Cadbury bars – why?

Cadbury and palm oil• Cadbury has bowed to consumer pressure and stopped using palm oil in its dairy

milk chocolate. • The confectionery giant caused a furore when it was revealed it had substituted

cocoa butter with vegetable fat including palm oil. • Palm oil is a contentious ingredient with reports blaming its plantations for huge

contributions to global warming and intensive habitat destruction leading to the deaths of orang-utans in Indonesia and Malaysia.

• Cadbury New Zealand managing director Matthew Oldham said he was "really sorry" and that the decision was in direct response to consumer feedback, including hundreds of letters and emails.

• "At the time, we genuinely believed we were making the right decision, for the right reasons. But we got it wrong,” he said.

• "Now we’re putting things right as soon as we possibly can, and hope Kiwis will forgive us.

Technological literacy

• Technological modelling• Risk management• Stakeholders• Functional modelling• Prototyping• Functional reasoning• Practical reasoning• Social aspects – moral/ethical

Functional reasoningwhat can be done

• Provides a basis for exploring the technical feasibility of the design concept and outcome

• That is it focuses on “how to make it happen” in the functional modelling phase, and the reasoning behind “how it is happening” in the prototyping

Practical reasoningwhat ought to be done

• Provides a basis for exploring acceptability (such as moral, ethical, social, political, economic, and environmental dimensions) surrounding the design concept and outcome testing. That is the reasoning around decisions as to should it happen focuses on “should we make it happen?” and “should it be happening?”

Functional modelling

• The yet to be realised tech outcome for the purpose of testing design concepts with regard to the physical and functional nature of the outcome required by the brief

Prototype

• Is the modelling of the realised but yet to be implemented technological outcome

• Its purpose is to evaluate the fitness for purpose of a technological outcome against the brief

• It is used to gather information to establish its acceptability for implementation or the need for further development

When is modelling carried out?

Design Research

• What’s the idea? What problem does it solve? How do people use it? Is it one-size-fits-all? Who’s going to buy it? How much will they pay for it?

• Questions in the research phase-combining market and technology research with focus groups, thorough foundations for projects. ends with the creation of the design brief.

• After all - The foolish man built his house upon the sand...

• Concept design is about translating, exploring and resolving the design brief - turning an idea scribbled on a napkin into a believable, viable product.

• Firstly, the problem is examined and a range of possible solutions are sketched and explored. This allows us to make educated decisions on the best design options. This is typically achieved through cycles of researching, innovation, sketching and evaluation.

Concept design

Design development• Development work refines the way the user will

interact with the product and the look and feel. We solve how best to manufacture, assemble and disassemble the product.

• This phase involves a lot of mechanism sketching, user storyboards, model making, and a more detailed selection of material, colours and textures.

• By applying ergonomic, anthropometric and mechanical data to the designs, we can ensure their accuracy and integrity.

Computer Aided Design

• CAD allows designers to create 'virtual' prototypes on the computer. They can be developed, analysed and eventually used to create the technical drawings for rapid prototyping and manufacture.

• CAD is a relatively inexpensive way of visualizing your product. Once the model is built, it can be viewed from any angle and photorealistic renderings can be produced.

Prototyping & Manufacturing

• This is the final stage before taking the leap into manufacture.

• Producing a prototype allows you to demonstrate and test the appearance, size, features and function of your product. This is a great way to get real feedback from users, manufacturers or investors to tweak and improve the product prior to manufacture.

Case study: Dyson• Dyson set to work. 5 years and 5,127 prototypes

later, the world's first bagless vacuum cleaner from Dyson arrived

• Brief case studyhis method does underline the value of models in product development. This iterative approach is how all Dyson design engineers continue to work today.

• When they began work on the DCO5 cylinder vacuum cleaner they wanted to develop a smaller, lighter, quieter and more powerful cylinder vacuum cleaner that used Dual CycloneTM technology.

Sketches – card models

Breadboard – foam models

Used to assess the products performance

Used to develop ergonomics and aesthetics

MDF – Resin models

Prototype

Testing

Capturing movement

Testing for failure

AS Step ups from level 1 to 2

Existing modelling behind a productExisting modelling behind a product

Students own modelling within

technological practice

Students own modelling within

technological practice

OROR

Reflection on student practice• During tech modelling evidence is gathered to justify decision

making• Prediction of possible and probable consequences of the proposed

outcome• Functional reasoning focuses on “how to make it happen” and “how

it is happening?”• Practical reasoning focuses on “should we make it happen” and

“should it be happening?”• Decisions as a result of technological modelling may include the :

termination of the development in the short or long term, continuation of the development as planned, or changing/refining the design concept and/or the nature of the technological outcome before proceeding

Sentence starters…• This case study focuses on..• This modelling was used to interact with... (stakeholder)• The feedback showed…if they had not listened to the stakeholders then• This modelling allowed the identification of… probable risk… type of risk.. The

severity of the risk..• This type of modelling allowed… and this information/evidence identified…

ensuring…• This modelling showed what should be done..• I think this evidence…and this allowed them to…• The …model was used to discover what should happen and then the evidence was

used to help decide how to make it happen• …..this tested technical feasibility/social acceptability• The modelling allowed… which meant a significant change (or refinement) to the

design/use of material• Real/perceived risks were identified so they trialled/tested…..

Resources

• http://www.ijdesign.org/ojs/index.php/IJDesign/article/view/218/141

• Digital: Using Paper Prototypes to Manage Risk By Carolyn

Snyderhttp://www.uie.com/articles/prototyping_risk/

• Digital http://csweb.cs.bgsu.edu/maner/domains/Proto.htm