20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference FAA Safety Initiatives Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) John Hickey, Director Aircraft Certification

20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference

FAAFAA

Safety InitiativesSafety Initiatives

Commercial AviationCommercial AviationSafety Team (CAST)Safety Team (CAST)

John Hickey, DirectorAircraft Certification Service, AIR-1


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AgendaAgenda Status and Progress to Date

– Background

– Runway Incursions

– Current Annual Safety Plan

– Business Model

International Collaboration

– Outreach Efforts

Prioritized Safety Research

CAST Future Direction


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In the U.S., our focus was set by theIn the U.S., our focus was set by theWhite House Commission on Aviation White House Commission on Aviation

SafetySafety1.1 Government and industry

should establish a national goal to reduce the aviation fatal accident rate by a factor of five within ten years and conduct safety research to support that goal

1.2 The FAA should develop standards for continuous safety improvement, and should target its regulatory resources based on performance against those standards


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The National Civil Aviation Review The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) Commission (NCARC)

on Aviation Safety Provided Additional Directionon Aviation Safety Provided Additional Direction

• FAA and the aviation industry must develop a strategic plan to improve safety, with specific priorities based on objective, quantitative analysis of safety information and data

• Government should expand on their programs to improve aviation safety in other parts of the world

DODFAA• Aircraft Certification• Flight Standards• System Safety• Air Traffic

Operations• Research

NASAICAOJAATCCNATCA

Industry

Commercial Aviation Commercial Aviation Safety TeamSafety Team

(CAST)(CAST)

Government

*Representing GE and RR

AIAAirbusALPAAPAATANACABoeingP&W*RAAFSFIATAAAPAATACAPFA

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference 5


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CAST GoalsCAST Goals Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal

accident rate by 80% by 2007

Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

• Safety enhancement development

• Master safety plan • Enhancement

effectiveness• Future areas of

study

CASTCAST• Data analyses

Joint Safety Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT)Analysis Teams (JSAT)

Joint Safety Joint Safety Implementation Implementation

Teams (JSIT)Teams (JSIT)

Joint Implementation Joint Implementation Measurement Data Measurement Data

Analysis Team (JIMDAT)Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)


Historical Part 121 Fatality Risk (1987-2000)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%To

tal

LOC

Flt

CFI

T

Fire

/Exp

losi

onR

unw

ay C

ollis

ion

LOC

GN

D

Mid

air

Cre

w In

c

Eng

-UC

EF

Sys

-Com

p

Turb

ulen

ce

Eva

c

Fat

alit

y R

isk

Excluding all security events



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Integrated Strategic Safety PlanIntegrated Strategic Safety Plan

Contains 46 safety enhancements optimized to include those actions with the best effectiveness vs. resource relationships

21 complete/25 committed and underway Initially combines short-term “liveware”-based

enhancements with transition to design change enhancements long term

Foundation for U.S-driven continuous improvements in worldwide aviation safety


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Runway IncursionsRunway Incursions Identified as an important contributor to risk in the

initial Safer Skies agenda CAST chartered analysis (JSAT) and

implementation (JSIT) teams to study Runway Incursions and develop Safety Enhancements to address them

10 of the 46 Safety Enhancements on the Integrated Strategic Safety Plan relate to Runway Incursions

2 of the 10 R&D Projects and Studies relate to Runway Incursions


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Completed Safety EnhancementsCompleted Safety Enhancements Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS) CFIT Standard Operating Procedures Precision approach implementation (PAI) Vertical Angles –

Increase constant angle approaches Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP) CFIT Crew Resource Management (CRM) training CFIT Prevention training Air Traffic Controller CFIT training PAI-VGSI at runway ends PAI-DME at airports RI SOPs – Ground Operations (General Aviation) RI SOPs - Tow tug operators

Completed Safety Enhancements Completed Safety Enhancements (cont’d)(cont’d) Safety Culture

– Industry will include essential safety information in the appropriate airline manuals (i.e., training programs)

– FAA inspectors will utilize the Aircraft Flight Manual (AFM) database

– CEO and Director of Safety (DOS) more visible Maintenance Procedures

– FAA published guidance on: Servicing landing struts Surveillance of maintenance subcontractors Minimum Equipment List (MEL) (covers recurring maintenance

events) – Air Carriers’ Directors of Safety completed internal surveys to

verify guidance was being followed ALAR Flight crew training Uncontained Engine Failures

– FAA issued Airworthiness Directives requiring the Inspection of High-Energy Rotating Parts


Committed Plan ElementsCommitted Plan Elements Policies and Procedures

– Industry will develop/implement Risk Management tools– Industry will develop a process to inform personnel/flight crew of critical safety

information– Industry will develop a process to enhance flight crew proficiency – FAA/Industry will develop standard operating procedures for loss of control related

accidents

Aircraft Design – FAA will issue guidance on Continuing Airworthiness– FAA will issue guidance on Critical System Maintenance– FAA will amend guidance to include recommendations surrounding autoflight designs

for new type designs– Manufacturers will implement Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades for new type designs

(i.e. interactive checklists)– FAA/JAA will amend guidance to include recommendations regarding Displays and

Alerting Systems for new designs– Manufacturers agree to install Vertical Situation Displays in new aircraft– FAA/JAA will issue amended icing certification criteria for criteria for new airplane

designs not equipped with evaporative systems – Manufacturers agree to install Flight Envelope Protection in new type designs


Committed Plan Elements Committed Plan Elements (cont.)(cont.)

Flight Crew Training – Advanced Maneuvers Training will be provided by all

operators– Industry will incorporate a human factors-related training

guide into training programs and SOPs

Precision approach implementation (PAI) FAA and Industry will develop:

– Recommended procedures, displays and training that will enable pilots of commercial aircraft to fly a stabilized vertical path to the runway for all instrument approaches

– Criteria and guidance for reduced landing minima– Laterally and vertical guided approach paths to runway

ends not served by Instrument Landing System (ILS)



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Committed Plan Elements Committed Plan Elements (cont.)(cont.)

Runway Incursions -

Enhanced airport surveillance equipment Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs)

• Ground operations (Commercial Aviation)• Vehicle operators• ATC• Clearance readback requirements

Training –• Pilots• ATC

• Enhanced Tower Controller training• CRM


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Resource Cost vs. Risk ReductionResource Cost vs. Risk ReductionAPPROVED PLAN

Completed + Plan (2007

Implementation Level)

Completed + Plan (2020

Implementation Level)

All JSIT Proposed Enhancements

(2020 Implementation

Level)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Re

so

urc

e C

os

t ($

Mil

lio

ns

)

Risk Reduction

Total Cost in $ (Millions)

2007 2020

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Ris

k E

lim

ina

ted

by

Sa

fety

En

ha

nc

em

en

ts

Completed

CAST-050


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Safety Plan BenefitsSafety Plan Benefits

Prediction of a 64% risk reduction that also results in approximately $540 million annual savings to the industry Current accident cost per flight is

approximately $90 cycle Implementation of the 46 selected safety

enhancements reduces this cost by $58 per flight cycle

Safety is good for business


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Do

llars

/Flt

. Cy

c

Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents

100

80

60

40

20

0

Historic cost of accidents/flt. cyc

64 % Risk reduction

Savings ~ $58/Flt. Cyc

Or

~ $540 Million Dollars/Yr.

Cost of Accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan @ 2007 levels

2002 2007

Hull Loss & Fatal AccidentsPortion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan

(2007 Implementation Values)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Tota

l

LOC

Flt

CFI

TFi

re/E

xplo

sion

Run

way

Col

lisio

n

LOC

GN

D

Mid

air

Cre

w In

c

Eng

-UC

EF

Sys

-Com

p

Turb

ulen

ce

Eva

c

Po

rtio

n o

f R

isk

Risk EliminatedRisk Remaining

CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset – Security events excluded.



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Safety MetricsSafety MetricsPurpose: Measure to determine if program is resulting in desired

risk reduction. Identify issues needing more detailed analysis if desired result is not occurring

Assumption: Measurement of accident rate is not effective means of identifying program success

Concentrate on using reporting systems currently in existence (ex: FOQA, Partnership programs, SDR, NAOMS, etc.)

Direct link is through the problem statements identified by data analysis

–Identify events that reflect the problem

–Identify available method for measuring the event frequency

–Establish event baseline

–Identify trend

Safety Metrics ExamplesSafety Metrics ExamplesSafety Enhancement Indicator

1. Terrain Avoidance Warning System (TAWS)

Reduction in MSAW alertsReduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT)

4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (7-11,18)

Percentage of operators who have adopted constant angle approaches

Continuous reduction in selected metrics

21. ALAR Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades – New Type Designs (1-3)

Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below decision height

23. ALAR Flight Crew Training – one project

Continuous reduction in the number of busted approach gates

Continuous reduction in altitude busts

27. LOC Policies and Procedures – Risk Assessments and Management – one project

Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk assessment/management processes in place

Continuous reduction in the number of operations with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systems

Percentage of operators with a process to include safety information in manuals



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CAST Driven International Safety CAST Driven International Safety ActivitiesActivities

ICAO– COSCAP (Cooperative

Development of Operational Safety and Continuing Airworthiness)

Europe– JSSI: Joint Safety

Strategy Initiative

Central and South America

– PAAST: Pan American Aviation Safety Team

East Africa– African Airlines

Safety Council, AFRASCO

West Africa– Flight Safety

Foundation

Asia/Pacific– Association of Asia

Pacific Airlines


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CAST Future DirectionCAST Future Direction Execute the CAST approved Safety Plan

Measure Plan effectiveness and modify Plan based on metrics and results

Continue the development of a proactive incident-based risk mitigation methodology

Improve the CAST process

Expand CAST influence on worldwide safety programs

Integrate safety program with R & D initiatives

Catalog the many ongoing safety initiatives that dilute limited resources and identify opportunities for program integration and efficiency improvements


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Prioritized R&D Prioritized R&D and Study Recommendationsand Study Recommendations

Captured all R&D and study recommendations from all JSAT/JSIT activity

Consolidated and grouped like products Tested all against CAST Dataset for

effectiveness Recommending those that perform well

against dataset


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ConclusionsConclusions CAST has an effective data driven process CAST has become the model for

Industry/Government consensus building on safety

CAST brings together all the key players

– Air Carriers – Manufacturers

– Employee Groups – Government Predicted 64% risk reduction Industry is voluntarily implementing CAST

recommendations World-wide leadership Need your support to shape the future

Documents

20th Annual JAA/FAA International Conference FAA Safety Initiatives Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) John Hickey, Director Aircraft Certification