204521 Digital System Architecture 1 September 23, 2015 Lecture 1b Technology Trends Pradondet Nilagupta, KU (Based on lecture notes by Prof. Randy Katz

204521 Digital System Architecture 1April 19, 2023

Lecture 1bTechnology Trends

Pradondet Nilagupta , KU(Based on lecture notes by Prof. Randy Katz

& Prof. Jan M. Rabaey , UC Berkeley)


Original

Big Fishes Eating Little Fishes


1988 Computer Food Chain

PCWork-station

Mini-computer

Mainframe

Mini-supercomputer

Supercomputer

Massively Parallel

Processors


1998 Computer Food Chain

PCWork-station

Mainframe

Supercomputer

Mini-supercomputerMassively Parallel

Processors

Mini-computer

Now who is eating whom?

Server


Why Such Change in 10 years? Function

– Rise of networking/local interconnection technology

Performance– Technology Advances

CMOS VLSI dominates TTL, ECL in cost & performance

– Computer architecture advances improves low-end RISC, Superscalar, RAID, …

Price: Lower costs due to …– Simpler development

CMOS VLSI: smaller systems, fewer components

– Higher volumes CMOS VLSI : same dev. cost 10,000 vs. 10,000,000 units

– Lower margins by class of computer, due to fewer services


1985 Computer Food Chain Technologies

PCWork-stationMini-

computer

Mainframe

Mini-supercomputer

Supercomputer

ECL TTL MOS


Year

Tra

nsis

tors

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

100000000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

i80386

i4004

i8080

Pentium

i80486

i80286

i8086

Technology Trends: Microprocessor Capacity

CMOS improvements:• Die size: 2X every 3 yrs• Line width: halve / 7 yrs

“Graduation Window”

Alpha 21264: 15 millionPentium Pro: 5.5 millionPowerPC 620: 6.9 millionAlpha 21164: 9.3 millionSparc Ultra: 5.2 million

Moore’s Law


Memory Capacity (Single Chip DRAM)

size

Year

Bit

s

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

100000000

1000000000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

year size(Mb) cyc time

1980 0.0625 250 ns1983 0.25 220 ns1986 1 190 ns1989 4 165 ns1992 16 145 ns1996 64 120 ns2000 256 100 ns


CMOS ImprovementsDie size 2X every 3 yrs

Line widths halve every 7 yrs

0

5

10

15

20

25

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992

Die SizeLine Width Improvement

Die size increase plus transistor count increase

Transistor Count


Future DRAMs (Spectrum 1/96)

1995 .35 190 .064 1998 .25 280 .256 2001 .18 420 1 2004 .13 640 4 2007 .10 960 16 2010 .07 1400 64

Year Smallest Die Size Bits/Chip Feature sq. mm (Billions)


Memory Size of Various Systems Over Time

128K

128M

20008K

1M

8M

1G

8G

1970 1980 1990

1 chip

1Kbit

640K

4K 16K 64K 256K 1M 4M 16M 64M 256M

DOS limit

1/8 chip

8 chips-PC

64 chips workstation

512 chips

4K chips

Bytes

Time


Technology Trends(Summary)

Capacity Speed (latency)

Logic 2x in 3 years 2x in 3 years

DRAM 4x in 3 years 2x in 10 years

Disk 4x in 3 years 2x in 10 years


386486

Pentium(R)

Pentium Pro(R)

Pentium(R) II

MPC750604+604

601, 603

21264S

2126421164A

2116421064A

21066

10

100

1,000

10,000

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

Mh

z

1

10

100

Ga

te D

ela

ys

/ Clo

ck

Intel

IBM Power PC

DEC

Gate delays/clock

Processor freq scales by 2X per

generation

Processor frequency trend

Frequency doubles each generation Number of gates/clock reduce by 25%


Processor PerformanceTrends

Year

Microprocessors

Minicomputers

Mainframes

Supercomputers

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000


Performance vs. Time

Mips25 MHz

0.1

1.0

10

100

Per

form

ance

(V

AX

780

s)

1980 1985 1990

MV10K

68K

7805 MHz

RISC 60%

/ yr.

uVAX 6K(CMOS)

8600

TTL

ECL 15%/yr.

CMOS CISC

38%/yr.

o ||MIPS (8 MHz)

o9000

Mips(65 MHz)

uVAXCMOS Will RISC continue on a

60%, (x4 / 3 years)?

4K


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

DEC A

lpha

21164/6

00

DEC A

lpha

5/5

00

DEC A

lpha

5/3

00

DEC A

lpha

4/2

66

IBM

PO

WER 1

00

DEC A

XP/

500

HP

9000/7

50

Sun

-4/2

60

IBM

RS

/6000

MIP

S M

/120

MIP

S M

/2000

Processor Performance(1.35X before, 1.55X now)

1.54X/yr


Performance Trends(Summary)

Workstation performance (measured in Spec Marks) improves roughly 50% per year (2X every 18 months)

Improvement in cost performance estimated at 70% per year


199919971995199319911989198719851983

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

Mainframe

Super-mini

Workstation

Inst

ruct

ion

s/se

con

d/$

Instructions/Second/$ vs. Time

PC


Processor Perspective Putting performance growth in perspective:

IBM POWER2 Cray YMP

Workstation Supercomputer

Year 1993 1988

MIPS > 200 MIPS < 50 MIPS

Linpack 140 MFLOPS 160 MFLOPS

Cost $120,000 $1M ($1.6M in 1994$)

Clock 71.5 MHz 167 MHz

Cache 256 KB 0.25 KB

Memory 512 MB 256 MB 1988 supercomputer in 1993 server!


Where Has This Performance Improvement Come From?

Technology? Organization? Instruction Set Architecture? Software? Some combination of all of the above?


Performance Trends Revisited(Architectural Innovation)

Microprocessors

Minicomputers

Mainframes

Supercomputers

Year

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

CISC/RISC


Performance Trends Revisited(Technology Advances)

Logic Speed: 2x per 3 years

Logic Capacity: 2x per 3 years

Leads to:

Computing capacity: 4x per 3 years

– If can keep all the transistors busy all the time

– Actual: 3.3x per 3 years


Performance Trends Revisited (Microprocessor Organization)

Year

Transistors

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

100000000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

r4400

r4000

r3010

i80386

i4004

i8080

i80286

i8086

• Bit Level Parallelism

• Pipelining

• Caches

• Instruction Level Parallelism

• Out-of-order Xeq

• Speculation

• . . .


Greater instruction level parallelism? Bigger caches? Multiple processors per chip? Complete systems on a chip? (Portable Systems) High performance LAN, Interface, and Interconnect

What is Ahead?


Hardware Technology 1980 1990 2000

Memory chips 64 K 4 M 256 M-1 G

Speed 1-2 20-40 400-1000

5-1/4 in. disks 40 M 1 G 20 G

Floppies .256 M 1.5 M 500-2,000 M

LAN (Switch) 2-10 Mbits 10 (100) 155-655 (ATM)

Busses 2-20 Mbytes 40-400


Software Technology

1980 1990 2000 Languages C, FORTRAN C++, HPF object stuff?? Op. System proprietary +DUM* +DUM+NT User I/F glass Teletype WIMP* stylus, voice,

audio,video, ?? Comp. Styles T/S, PC Client/Server agents*mobile New things PC & WS parallel proc. appliances Capabilities WP, SS WP,SS, mail video, ??

DUM = DOS, n-UNIX's, MAC WIMP = Windows, Icons, Mouse, Pull-down menus Agents = robots that work on information


Computing 2001 Continue quadrupling memory every 3 years

– 1K chip in 72 becomes 1 gigabit chip (128 Mbytes) in 2002

On-line 12-25 Gigabytes; $10 1-Gbyte floppies & CDs

Micros increase at 60% per year ... parallelism ญ100

Radio links for untethered computing


Computing 2001

Telephone, fax, radio, television, camera, house, ...Real personal (watch, wallet,notepad) computers

We should be able to simulate:

– Nearly everything we make and their factories

– Much of the universe from the nucleus to galaxies

Performance implies: voice and visualEase of use. Agents!


Applications: Unlimited Opportunities

Office agents: phone/FAX/comm; files/paper handling Untethered computing: fully distributed offices ?? Integration of video, communication, and computing:

desktop video publishing, conferencing, & mail Large, commercial transaction processing systems Encapsulate knowledge in a computer: scientific &

engineering simulation (e.g.. planetarium, wind tunnel, ... )


Applications: Unlimited Opportunities

Visualization & virtual reality Computational chemistry e.g. biochemistry and

materials Mechanical engineering without prototypes Image/signal processing: medicine, maps, surveillance. Personal computers in 2001 are today's supercomputers Integration of the PC & TV => TC


Challenges for 1990s Platforms

64-bit computers video, voice, communication, any really new apps? Increasingly large, complex systems and environments

Usability? Plethora of non-portable, distributed, incompatible,

non-interoperable computers: Usability? Scalable parallel computers can provide “commodity

supercomputing”: Markets and trained users?


Challenges for 1990s Platforms

Apps to fuel and support a chubby industry: communications, paper/office, and digital video

The true portable, wireless communication computer Truly personal card, pencil, pocket, wallet computer Networks continue to limit: WAN, ISDN, and ATM?


Density Access Time

(Gbits/cm2) (ns)

DRAM 8.5 10

DRAM (Logic) 2.5 10

SRAM (Cache) 0.3 1.5

Density Max. Ave. PowerClock Rate(Mgates/cm2) (W/cm2) (GHz)

Custom 25 54 3Std. Cell 10 27 1.5

Gate Array 5 18 1Single-Mask GA 2.5 12.5 0.7

FPGA 0.4 4.5 0.25

A glimpse into the future

Die Area: 2.5x2.5 cmVoltage: 0.6 - 0.9 VTechnology: 0.07 m15 times denser

than today2.5 times power

density5 times clock rate

Silicon in 2010Silicon in 2010


What is the next wave?

Source: Richard Newton


The Embedded Processor

What?

A programmable processor whose programming interface is not accessible to the end-user of the product.

The only user-interaction is through the actual application.


Examples:

Sharp PDA’s are encapsulated products with fixed functionality

- 3COM Palm pilots were originally intended as embedded systems. Opening up the programmers interface turned them into more generic computer systems.


Some interesting numbers The Intel 4004 was intended for an

embedded application (a calculator) Of todays microprocessors

– 95% go into embedded applications SSH3/4 (Hitachi): best selling RISC

microprocessor– 50% of microprocessor revenue stems from

embedded systems


Some interesting numbers (cont.)

Often focused on particular application area– Microcontrollers– DSPs– Media Processors– Graphics Processors– Network and Communication Processors


Some different evaluation metrics

Flexibility

Power

Cost

Performance as a Functionality ConstraintPerformance as a Functionality Constraint(“Just-in-Time Computing”)(“Just-in-Time Computing”)

Components of Cost

– Area of die / yield

– Code density (memory is the major part of die size)

– Packaging

– Design effort

– Programming cost

– Time-to-market

– Reusability

Documents

204521 Digital System Architecture 1 September 23, 2015 Lecture 1b Technology Trends Pradondet Nilagupta, KU (Based on lecture notes by Prof. Randy Katz