2020 - NALEO

2020

The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund is the leading national organization that facilitates full Latino participation in the American political process, from citizenship to public service. NALEO Educational Fund carries out its mission through three strategies: mobilizing the Latino community; developing the leadership and governance skills of Latino public servants; and promoting a policy framework that enhances Latino access to U.S. civic life. NALEO Educational Fund is a non-partisan 501(c)(3) organization whose constituency includes the more than 6,800 Latino elected and appointed officials nationwide. For further information contact:

NALEO Educational Fund National Office 1122 West Washington Boulevard, Third Floor

Los Angeles, CA 90015 213 / 747-7606

www.naleo.org@NALEO

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Houston, TX 77008

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New York, NY 10004

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Orlando, FL 32819

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Washington, DC 20003

© 2020 NALEO Educational Fund Los Angeles, CA All Rights Reserved

2020 LATINO ELECTION HANDBOOK

TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S

Introduction 1

Latino Voting Statistics 10

The Nation 10

Arizona 14

California 18

Colorado 22

Florida 26

Illinois 30

New Jersey 34

New Mexico 38

New York 42

Texas 46

Comparison: Participation of Native-Born & Naturalized Citizens 50

The Nation 52

California 53

Florida 54

New York 55

Texas 56

Sources & Methodology 57


A C K N O W L E D G M E N T S

The publication of the Handbook involved the efforts of several individuals who provided invaluable assistance with its research, writing, and production.

On the staff of the NALEO Educational Fund, Dorian Caal made several significant contributions by compiling and analyzing data for the Handbook, and assisting with proofreading. Arturo Vargas assisted with the writing, and Freddy Pech assisted with the graphic design of the Handbook. Rosalind Gold assisted with data analysis, writing the Handbook, and coordination of its publication.

We also extend a special thanks to Peter Chen of Design by Chen for his design and layout of the Handbook.

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I N T R O D U C T I O N

LATINOS AND THE 2020 ELECTION: AN INTRODUCTION AND ANALYSIS

Throughout the Presidential and midterm elections of the past two decades, the Latino electorate has continued to play a pivotal role in our nation’s political life. As the November 2020 election approaches, Latinos are again poised to determine the outcome of contests at all levels of office, including the presidency, and critical races for Congressional, state legislative and statewide seats. Election 2020 is occurring during an unprecedented public health and political climate for any Presidential election in our nation’s history. The COVID-19 pandemic is affecting every aspect of Americans’ economic and social life. The partisan balance of power in Congress is at stake, and our electorate is intensely polarized. In addition, the Administration has proposed or implemented several policies which would undermine the tenets of our representative democracy and which demonstrate a particular animus toward Latinos and immigrants.

The November 2020 election comes in the wake of the hotly-contested Presidential battle of November 2016 and the achievement of Latino political milestones in both the 2016 and 2018 elections. However, the turnout of eligible Latinos in both of those election cycles show that the Latino community is still making progress toward realizing its full political potential. Election 2020 is also occurring when there is uncertainty about the future course of the pandemic and how it will affect access to voting and voter turnout. In addition, the scope of efforts to mobilize the Latino electorate, and the President’s anti-Latino and anti-immigrant statements and actions will shape the landscape for Latino voters and candidates in the 2020 election season.

NOVEMBER 2014

In the November 2014 midterm elections, 6.8 million Latinos cast ballots, a 2% increase over 2010. While the number of Latino voters reached a new record for a midterm election, the turnout of eligible Latinos was extremely low. Between 1994 and 2006, the share of Latino voting-age citizens who voted in midterm elections ranged from 30-34% - in 2014, the turnout rate fell to 27%.

Census data indicate that the turnout rate of all voters nationwide in the 2014 midterm elections was extremely low. The 2014 turnout rate of voting-age citizens was the lowest for a midterm election since at least 1978, when the Census Bureau first started to compile data on voting and citizenship status through its Current Population Survey (CPS).

In addition, CPS data suggest that low turnout among California’s Latinos, who comprised more than one of every four of the nation’s Latino voting-age citizens (27%), contributed to the overall low turnout of Latinos nationwide – only 25% of California’s Latino voting age citizens cast ballots in 2014. As was the case nationwide, the participation rates of Californians were extremely low – according to data from the

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California Secretary of State, the turnout of registered voters that year was the lowest for any regularly-scheduled general election in the state’s history. Political observers suggest that there was little very investment in voter engagement during the California election, because the top of the statewide ticket was incumbent Governor Edward G. Brown Jr., who was not facing competitive opposition in his re-election campaign. In addition, the other statewide races were generally not competitive contests, and there were no major ballot measures that might have otherwise encouraged greater voter mobilization efforts and interest in the election.

NOVEMBER 2016

The Presidential election of 2016 occurred during a time of a high political polarization, with then-candidate Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant and anti-Latino comments earning criticism from members of both political parties. Ultimately, 12.7 million Latino voters cast ballots, a record number for a Presidential election, and a 13% increase from Election 2012. However, the turnout rate of Latino voting-age citizens in November 2016 remained relatively flat – 47.6% in Election 2016 compared to 48.0% in Election 2012. In contrast, this turnout rate had gradually increased between the Presidential elections of 1996 and 2008, growing from 44.0% to 49.9%.

The turnout rates of Latino registered voters in Presidential elections does indicate that once Latinos are registered, they have relatively high turnout rates. For example, between the Presidential elections of 2000 and 2016, this turnout rate fluctuated between 79-84%, and was 83% in Election 2016.

As has been the case in previous Presidential elections, most investment in Latino voter engagement in the 2016 contest was directed toward “battleground” states, which were perceived as being critical to winning the Electoral College vote. As a result, investment in states where the outcome was assumed, including California, Illinois, New York, and Texas was anemic. According to 2018 Census American Community Survey data (1-year estimates), these four states accounted for more than half (56%) of Latino voting-age citizens. Some political observers believe that candidates, parties and other groups with voter engagement resources did not target Latino voters because they assumed that Donald Trump’s divisive statements and policies would bring Latinos to the polls.

In Election 2016, Latinos achieved several political milestones. In Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto (D) was the first Latina elected to the U.S. Senate. In New York, Adriano Espaillat (D) was the first Dominican-American elected to the U.S. House, and Darren Soto was the first Puerto Rican elected to the U.S. House from Florida. After Election 2016, the number of Latinos serving in Congress and state legislatures reached new records, with 38 serving in Congress and 321 serving in state legislatures.



NOVEMBER 2018

Latino turnout trends in the November 2018 midterm elections moved in a more positive direction than the preceding 2014 midterms. Nationwide, the number of Latino voters increased from 6.8 million in 2014 to 11.7 million in 2018. The turnout rate of Latino voting-age citizens also increased dramatically, from 27% to 40%, as did the turnout rate of Latino registered voters, which grew from 53% in 2014 to 75% in 2018. In both California and Texas, 2018 saw significant increases in the turnout rates of Latino registered voters from 2014. In California, the turnout rate of Latino registered voters grew from 52% in 2014 to 78% in 2018, and in Texas, the comparable turnout rates grew from 48% to 68%.

In Election 2018, Latinos continued to achieve political milestones. Texas elected its first two Latina U.S. Representatives to Congress, Democrats Veronica Escobar and Sylvia Garcia. New Mexico elected the first Latina to represent its 2nd Congressional District, Xochitil Torres Small (D). Ohio elected Republican Anthony Gonzalez (R) as its first Latino U.S. Representative. In New York’s 14th Congressional district, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) became the youngest person ever elected to Congress. After Election 2018, the number of Latinos serving in the U.S. House reached a new record, growing to 38 serving in that chamber (four Latinos continued to serve in the United States Senate).

In California, two Latinos were the first elected to their respective statewide offices, with Ricardo Lara (D) becoming the state’s Insurance Commissioner, and Tony Thurmond (NPP) becoming the Superintendent of Public Instruction. Antonio Vazquez (D) was the first Latino to be elected to a seat on the state’s Board of Equalization. These officials’ election, together with the re-election of Secretary of State Alex Padilla (D) and the election of Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D) to his first full term of office, brought the number of Latinos serving as California Constitutional officers to five, the highest number in the state’s history.

In Florida, Jeanette Nuñez (R) became the first Latina to serve as Florida’s Lieutenant Governor. In New Mexico, four Latinos were elected to statewide office, including Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham (D), Lieutenant Governor Howie Morales (D), State Auditor Brian Colón (D), and Commissioner of Public Lands Stephanie Garcia Richard (D).




NOVEMBER 2020

NALEO Educational Fund projects that at least 14.6 million Latinos will cast ballots in November, an increase of 15% from November 2016. This estimate is merely a floor, based on the steady growth of the Latino vote in the past two decades.

There are several factors which will affect Latino turnout in November 2020.

The COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically affected the health and well-being of all Americans, and Latinos in particular. Research from several sources including the Centers for Disease Control have documented that Latinos are suffering significantly higher infection, hospitalization and mortality rates than non-Hispanic Whites. In the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey and a Pew Research Center survey, Latinos report facing more difficult challenges with lost income, food insecurity, loss of private health insurance, inability to make mortgage or rental payments, and residential instability than the overall population. The pandemic may also be affecting Latino voter enthusiasm. For example, in its February 2020 Univision Noticias/Latino Community Foundation poll, research firm Latino Decisions found that 73% of Latino registered voters nationwide indicated that they were almost certain to vote, and 12% indicated that they would probably vote. In contrast, in the firm’s April 2020 SOMOS poll, only 60% of Latino registered voters indicated that they were almost certain to vote, and 15% indicated that they would probably vote.

As a result of the pandemic, states, localities, campaigns and nonprofit organizations are making significant changes in agency operations and election practices, many of which could create obstacles to Latino voter registration and voting. Many Latinos register to vote at state Department of Motor Vehicles or other public agencies, which have closed or reduced their hours. Political science research indicates that personal contact with voters through such efforts as door-to-door campaigns or public events are one of the most effective ways of registering and engaging Latino voters. However, the pandemic has made these activities infeasible. A June 2020 analysis from FiveThirtyEight compared the number of voters that registered inseveral states in April 2016 and April 2020. This analysis found that in states such as California, Florida, Illinois and Texas, there was a decline in the number of registrations in April 2020 compared to April 2016.

Many jurisdictions are promoting vote-by-mail (VBM) as the primary way to cast ballots, in part because they are experiencing difficulties in finding locations that would allow for in-person voting in a safe environment. Some are also experiencing challenges in recruiting poll workers. However, NALEO Educational Fund research indicates that in states such as Arizona, California, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, Latinos are less likely to use VBM to cast ballots than the overall population. Moreover, in states such as New York and Texas, because of restrictions on using VBM, the overall population use of VBM is generally low. In addition, Latinos are often more likely than non-Hispanic whites to have their VBM ballots




rejected by jurisdictions (a more detailed description on the factors contributing to low Latino VBM usage and the overall impact of the pandemic on Latino electoral participation in Election 2020 can be found in the NALEO Educational Fund’s August 2020 report, Latino Voters at Risk: Barriers to Latino Voter Turnout Amid COVID-19.)

Increased usage of VBM may affect Latino electoral participation because many Latinos are not familiar with or face language barriers to VBM voting. Before the pandemic, Latinos were a relatively mobile population, and many more Latinos have moved or changed household arrangements after its onset. As a result of mobility and residential instability, many Latinos will not be living at the addresses reflected on the registration rolls. This will create fundamental challenges with these voters’ eligibility to cast ballots in the jurisdictions where they live, and will also mean they will fail to receive a VBM ballot in jurisdictions where those ballots are mailed to all registered voters.

In addition, while election administrators are likely to maintain some level of in-person voting, as noted above, challenges with finding locations and recruiting poll workers will result in the consolidation, relocation and reduction of polling sites. In Election 2016 and in the 2020 primaries, there were extremely long lines and long waits for voters in several jurisdictions. Research findings from MIT’s 2016 Survey of the Performance of American Elections and Cooperative Congressional Election Studies have documented that Latinos often face longer wait times for voting than non-Hispanic whites. In addition, Latinos often lack information about changes in polling locations, and there could well be significant voter confusion about in-person voting in Election 2020.

Because of challenges in recruiting poll workers, jurisdictions may employ less experienced workers, who may not be familiar with complex election policies, including the rights of Latinos and other voters to receive language assistance at the polling place or to obtain a provisional ballot. As a result, some Latinos may experience difficulties when trying to vote in-person.

Finally, the dissemination of misinformation through the internet creates a risk that Latinos and all voters will not receive accurate information about election matters. Robust voter education and outreach by states, localities, and nonprofit organizations could ameliorate the challenges for Latino voting posed by misinformation efforts and the other changes in election practices that will result from the pandemic. However, many states and localities lack the resources to conduct robust voter education during a time when they must fund efforts to respond to the health and economic problems caused by the pandemic. Federal election assistance funding could help provide the resources for jurisdictions to implement the broad range of activities needed for safe and accessible voting in Election 2020. However, as of this writing, the federal government has only appropriated $400 million for this purpose, which is far below the $4 billion that election experts believe that jurisdictions need. In May 2020, the U.S. House of Representatives approved the appropriation of an addition $3.6 billion of election assistance funding as part of a COVID-19 relief legislation, but so far, the U.S. Senate has not done so in its relief legislation. The extent to which jurisdictions address the challenges created by the pandemic for safe and accessible voting, and have the resources to do so, will have a significant impact on Latino voter turnout in Election 2020.


https://naleo.org/COMMS/2020/Annual Conference/Election Plenary/LVAR-Policy-Brief-2020.pdf

https://naleo.org/COMMS/2020/Annual Conference/Election Plenary/LVAR-Policy-Brief-2020.pdf



The Administration’s Anti-Latino and Anti-Immigrant Stances

Another factor which bears watching in Election 2020 is the extent to which anti-immigrant and anti-Latino statements and policies by the Trump Administration and Members of Congress will mobilize Latinos to cast ballots. President Trump has made several divisive comments about Latinos and immigrants both as a candidate and as President. The Administration has pursued several policies that have a detrimental impact on Latino immigrants and their families, including the continued advocacy for a wall at the U.S. Southern border; the rescission of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program; the termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for immigrants from El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua; the intentional separation of families that cross the border; changes to the “public charge” rule; significant increases in the application fees for naturalization and other immigration services; and unfair and unsound immigration enforcement efforts.

The Administration has also taken several actions regarding Census 2020 intended to diminish Latino representation in the U.S. House of Representations and our democratic process overall. The Administration unsuccessfully attempted to add an untested question on citizenship to Census 2020 which would have deterred Latinos from participating in the decennial enumeration, produce inaccurate data, and undermine the Constitutional mandate that Census 2020 count every resident in the United States. In the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court decision which halted the addition of the citizenship question, the Administration issued a July 2019 Executive Order which would create a flawed citizenship database from administrative records. The Executive Order indicated that the Administration would make the database available to states who wanted to use the data for redistricting. This would enable the states to use the data in a manner during redistricting which could significantly impair fair Latino representation.

The Administration continued to pursue its efforts to diminish Latino representation by issuing a July 2020 memorandum which would exclude undocumented immigrants from the population count used to apportion Congressional seats, another policy effort that violates the Constitution. The Administration has also reversed its position on the extension of statutory deadlines for the delivery of apportionment and redistricting data by the Bureau. The Secretary of Commerce initially requested that Congress extend the deadlines because of operational challenges the pandemic was creating for Census Bureau operations. However, the Administration is now failing to support this extension.

The Bureau had also initially indicated it was going to extend the deadlines for the completion of the most critical components of Census operations. However, as of this writing, the Bureau has announced it will shorten the schedule by one month, which have an extremely detrimental impact on the completeness and accuracy of the count of Latinos and other “hard-to-count” populations. The White House policy memorandum, the creation of the Executive Order database, the failure to extend the apportionment and redistricting data delivery deadlines, and the compressed time frames for the completion of Census operations are all part of a coordinated strategy to essentially sabotage the Census and undermine the growing political power of Latinos and other underrepresented groups. The public dialogue around these issues have also highlighted the anti-Latino animus of the Administration.




In the past, the tone and intensity of the anti-Latino and anti-immigrant public dialogue has been one factor which has mobilized Latino political participation. During the mid-1990’s, California’s voters enacted Proposition 187, which would have denied certain benefits to undocumented immigrants, and several federal anti-immigrant measures were enacted as well. Many proponents of these measures used harsh and inflammatory anti-immigrant rhetoric in their campaigns. In 1996, the number of Latino naturalized citizens and voters reached unprecedented levels.

Similarly, in 2006 and 2007, the passage of H.R. 4437 by the U.S. House of Representatives, which would have criminalized undocumented presence in the United States, together with the failure of comprehensive immigration reform to move forward in Congress, helped mobilize Latinos nationwide. Hundreds of thousands of Latinos took to the streets in the spring of 2006, culminating in a national day of boycott on May 1. Naturalizations again increased significantly, with the number of newly-naturalized citizens in 2008 reaching the highest number in the nation’s history, with naturalization of Latino legal permanent residents reaching their second-highest level ever.

Some trends which are part of the political context for Election 2020 are similar to the events which occurred in past periods where the presence of anti-immigrant and anti-Latino measures helped mobilize Latino participation. For example, since federal Fiscal Year 2010, applications for naturalizations increased in most years. Naturalization service providers are reporting that the desire to speak out against anti-immigrant and anti-Latino measures have contributed to trends of increasing naturalization applications. In this connection, it should be noted that since at least 1996, the turnout rates of Latino naturalized citizens in Presidential and midterm elections have exceeded those of the Latino native-born. For example, in Election 2016, the turnout rate of Latino naturalized registered voters was 90%, compared to 81% for their native-born counterparts.

The extent to which the Administration’s anti-Latino and anti-immigrant statements and actions will affect Latino turnout in Election 2020 is unclear. For example, data from the Office of Immigration Statistics indicate that the number of naturalization applicants who ultimately became U.S. citizens annually did grow between FY 2016 and 2019, increasing 11%. However, U.S. citizenship applicants are now experiencing significant delays in waiting times for application processing and the conduct of swearing-in ceremonies, which the pandemic has exacerbated. Given the relatively high turnout rates of Latino naturalized citizens, the extent to which Latino naturalization applicants become U.S. citizens and vote in Election 2020 will have an impact on Latino turnout.

It is also unclear whether Latinos will see this election as a referendum on the Administration’s immigration policies, particularly in light of the growing saliency of the pandemic. For example, in Latino Decisions’ November 2019 UnidosUs poll of Latinos nationwide, the top three issues Latinos indicated that an ideal candidate would focus on the most were health care (46%), jobs and the economy (43%) and immigration (42%). In the firm’s May 2020 SOMOS/UnidosUs poll, responding to the COVID-19 pandemic address was most frequently named as a top issue for Election 2020 (54%), followed by health care and economic issues.




Stopping discrimination against Latinos or immigrants (20%) and protecting immigrant rights (16%) were not named as frequently as they had been in several pre-pandemic polls. The extent to which the ability of candidates to respond to the pandemic mobilizes Latino voters in Election 2020 remains to be seen.

POLITICAL CLIMATE AND LATINO VOTER ENGAGEMENT EFFORTS

The impact of the political climate on Latino turnout in Election 2020 will also depend in part on whether political parties and candidates invest in Latino voter mobilization for the November general election. Typically, political parties and candidates focus their outreach on voters who are fully engaged in the political process and regularly vote, which means many Latinos are not contacted during the lead-up to elections. For example, results from the seventh week of the NALEO Educational Fund/Latino Decisions Weekly 2018 Political Tracking Poll indicated that three weeks before the election, a majority of Latino voters (55%) reported that they had yet to be contacted by a candidate or political party (the poll was conducted September 1 – November 4, 2018.)

Moreover, as noted above, in Presidential elections, parties and campaigns tend to target “battleground states,” and they have ignored states with sizeable Latino electorates such as Arizona, California, New York, and Texas where campaigns assume the outcome of statewide Presidential contests. However, in 2020, political observers believe that there will be competitive Presidential contests in states which have not traditionally been considered battleground states, such as Arizona and Texas, which may result in more investment in Latino mobilization in those states. The extent to which robust and effective Latino voter mobilization occurs in Election 2020 – both partisan and non-partisan – will have a significant impact on Latino turnout.

Finally, in Election 2020, voters will select the state legislators who in many states will be responsible for redistricting after Census 2020, and who will draw the lines for Congressional and state districts. Thus, Latino political participation will both help determine the outcome of Election 2020 contests, and shape the contour of our representative democracy for the decade to come.




The 2020 Latino Election Handbook

The 2020 Latino Election Handbook provides a demographic and political context for examining the potential for continued Latino political progress in November 2020. For the country as a whole, and for the nine states which together are home to 75% of the nation’s Latino population, the Handbook generally includes:

• The projected 2020 vote.

• The ethnic makeup of the population, and the size of the overall and Latino 2018 adult U.S. citizen population.

• The Latino share of all voters for the past three Presidential and midterm elections.

• Voter turnout and registration data for the Latino and non-Latino populations in the last three Presidential and midterm elections.

Finally, we also present data comparing the participation of native-born and naturalized citizens for the nation as a whole, and the states of California, Florida, New York, and Texas, for the last three Presidential and midterm elections. The sources for all the foregoing data appear in “Sources and Methodology” at the end of the Handbook.

THE

NA

TIO

N


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See “Sources & Methodology” at the end of Handbook. Percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

T H E N AT I O N

NATIONAL PROFILE

ETHNIC COMPOSITION OF POPULATION

According to 2018 Census American Community Survey data, the United States is home to 59.8 million Latinos, who are the nation’s second largest population group, and comprise nearly one of every five U.S. residents (18%). The NALEO Educational Fund projects that at least 14.6 million Latinos will vote in the 2020 Presidential elections.

LATINO WHITE BLACKNATIVE

AMERICANASIAN/

PACIFIC ISLANDER OTHER

18.3% 60.2% 12.3% 0.7% 5.6% 3.0%

TOTAL 2018 U.S. CITIZEN ADULT POPULATION (ACS): 233,565,291

LATINO 2018 U.S. CITIZEN ADULT POPULATION (ACS): 29,826,572

PROJECTED LATINO VOTE IN 2020: 14,556,300

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T H E N AT I O N

ELIGIBLE POPULATION, VOTING AND REGISTRATION

LATINO SHARE OF ALL VOTERS

The Latino share of all voters increased steadily during last decade’s Presidential and mid-term Congressional elections. Between the November 2014 and November 2018 mid-term Congressional elections, the Latino share of the vote grew from 7.3% to 9.6%, an increase of 30.2%. In November 2016, Latinos comprised 9.2% of all voters, an increase of 9.6% from November 2012.

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

2010 2014 2018LATINO NON-LATINO LATINO NON-LATINO LATINO NON-LATINO

Adult U.S. Citizens 21,285,000 189,515,000 25,092,000 194,849,000 28,955,000 199,877,000

Registered Voters 10,982,000 126,281,000 12,862,000 129,304,000 15,558,000 137,508,000

Actual Voters 6,646,000 89,341,000 6,775,000 85,476,000 11,695,000 110,586,000

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS




Actual Voters 9,745,000 121,399,000 11,188,000 121,760,000 12,682,000 124,855,000

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

92.66%

7.34%

2014

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

93.08%

6.92%

2010

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

90.44%

9.56%

2018

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

91.58%

8.42%

2012

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

92.57%

7.43%

2008

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

90.78%

9.22%

2016

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

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T H E N AT I O N

VOTER TURNOUT AND REGISTRATION ■ LATINOS

■ NON-LATINOS



% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS

% VOTERTURNOUT OFU.S. CITIZENS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

51.3% 52.7%

27.0%

66.1%

43.9%

66.4%

2014

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

51.6%

60.5%

31.2%

70.7%

47.1%

66.6%

2010

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

59.4%

84.0%

49.9%

90.1%

65.1%72.2%

2008

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

58.7%

81.7%

48.0%

87.3%

63.5%

72.7%

2012

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

57.3%

83.1%

47.6%

87.7%

63.3%

72.1%

2016

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

53.7%

75.2%

40.4%

80.4%

55.3%

68.8%

2018

AR

IZO

NA


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AR IZONA


A R I Z O N A

STATE PROFILE

REGISTERED VOTERS 2020 LATINO PARTY AFFILIATION 2020


According to 2018 Census American Community Survey data, nearly one of every three Arizona residents is Latino (32%). Latinos represent 24% of Arizona’s voting-age U.S. citizens. The NALEO Educational Fund projects that the Latino vote in Arizona for November 2020 will be at least 595,000.

TOTAL REGISTERED VOTERS:

LATINO REGISTERED VOTERS:

LATINO SHARE OF REGISTERED VOTERS:

DEMOCRAT:

REPUBLICAN:

OTHER:

3,837,304

706,660

18.4%

336,924

98,816

270,920

DEM

OC

RA

T

REP

UB

LIC

AN

OTH

ER

47.7% 14.0% 38.3%


AMERICANASIAN/


31.6% 54.3% 4.3% 3.9% 3.2% 2.7%



PROJECTED LATINO VOTE IN 2020: 595,000

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A R I Z O N A



Between the November 2012 and November 2016 Presidential elections, the Latino share of the vote in Arizona grew from 16.6% to 19.6%, an increase of 18.2%.




Registered Voters 610,000 2,934,000 687,000 2,051,000 757,000 2,505,000

Actual Voters 407,000 2,170,000 364,000 1,420,000 588,000 2,212,000



Adult U.S. Citizens 796,000 3,373,000 989,000 3,325,000 1,145,000 3,440,000


Actual Voters 291,000 2,206,000 400,000 2,012,000 543,000 2,226,000

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

79.58%

20.42%

2014

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

84.21%

15.79%

2010

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

79.00%

21.00%

2018

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

83.42%

16.58%

2012

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

88.35%

11.65%

2008

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

80.39%

19.61%

2016


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A R I Z O N A


■ NON-LATINOS



% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

60.0%53.0%

31.8%

69.2%

43.7%

63.1%

2014

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

57.5%

66.7%

38.4%

74.0%

48.8%

66.0%

2010

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

51.5%

71.0%

36.6%

89.5%

65.4%73.1%

2008

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

52.2%

77.5%

40.4%

87.6%

60.5%

69.1%

2012

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

57.1%

83.0%

47.4%

89.4%

64.7%72.4%

2016

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

62.8%

77.7%

48.8%

88.3%

62.3%70.5%

2018

CA

LIFO

RN

IA


19C A L I F O R N I A 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K


C A L I F O R N I A

STATE PROFILE



According to 2018 Census American Community Survey data, Latinos represent 39% of California’s total population, and are the largest population group in the state. Latinos also comprise nearly one of every three of the state’s voting-age U.S. citizens (30%). The NALEO Educational Fund projects that at least 4.0 million California Latinos will vote in November 2020.




DEMOCRAT:

REPUBLICAN:

OTHER:

20,451,297

5,518,637

27.0%

3,046,819

743,221

1,728,597

DEM

OC

RA

T

REP

UB

LIC

AN

OTH

ER

55.2% 13.5% 31.3%


AMERICANASIAN/


39.3% 36.6% 5.5% 0.4% 14.5% 3.7%




20 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K C A L I F O R N I A

C A L I F O R N I A



The Latino share of all voters in California increased between the 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections, with the 2016 share remaining relatively the same as 2012.





Actual Voters 2,058,000 8,667,000 1,707,000 7,241,000 3,300,000 9,940,000





Actual Voters 2,961,000 10,867,000 3,157,000 10,305,000 3,345,000 11,071,000

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

80.92%

19.08%

2014

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

80.81%

19.19%

2010

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

75.08%

24.92%

2018

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

76.55%

23.45%

2012

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

78.59%

21.41%

2008

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

76.80%

23.20%

2016



C A L I F O R N I A


■ NON-LATINOS



% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

48.0%51.8%

24.9%

66.9%

41.2%

61.5%

2014

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

52.0%

68.0%

35.4%

80.0%

51.1%

63.9%

2010

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

62.8%

90.7%

57.0%

93.5%

65.4%69.9%

2008

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

56.6%

85.7%

48.5%

88.3%

60.9%

69.0%

2012

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

54.7%

86.2%

47.2%

90.6%

62.2%68.6%

2016

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

55.3%

78.4%

43.3%

86.6%

55.5%64.1%

2018

CO

LOR

AD

O


23C O L O R A D O 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K


C O L O R A D O

STATE PROFILE



According to 2018 Census American Community Survey data, Latinos comprise 22% of Colorado’s total population, and 16% of the state’s voting-age U.S. citizens. The NALEO Educational Fund projects that at least 278,400 Colorado Latinos will vote in the 2020 general election.




DEMOCRAT:

REPUBLICAN:

OTHER:

3,462,694

359,618

10.4%

162,513

41,583

155,522

DEM

OC

RA

T

REP

UB

LIC

AN

OTH

ER

45.2% 11.6% 43.2%


AMERICANASIAN/


21.7% 67.8% 3.9% 0.6% 3.1% 3.0%


LATINO 2018 U.S. CITIZEN ADULT POPULATION (ACS): 666,340


24 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K C O L O R A D O

C O L O R A D O





Adult U.S. Citizens 455,000 3,018,000 534,000 3,198,000 590,000 3,439,000


Actual Voters 144,000 1,682,000 218,000 1,993,000 259,000 2,083,000





Actual Voters 195,000 2,113,000 259,000 2,236,000 237,000 2,470,000

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

90.14%

9.86%

2014

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

91.44%

8.56%

2010

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

88.94%

11.06%

2018

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

89.62%

10.38%

2012

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

91.55%

8.45%

2008

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

91.24%

8.76%

2016


25C O L O R A D O 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K

C O L O R A D O


■ NON-LATINOS



% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

60.1%

67.9%

40.8%

85.4%

62.3%

73.0%

2014

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

47.0%

67.3%

31.6%

80.7%

55.7%

69.1%

2010

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

59.2%

86.7%

51.3%

95.5%

70.6%73.9%

2008

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

57.1%

91.2%

52.1%

95.1%

73.4%77.2%

2012

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

63.8%

87.1%

55.6%

94.2%

71.2%75.6%

2016

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

54.7%

80.2%

43.9%

89.7%

60.6%67.5%

2018

FLO

RID

A


27F L O R I D A 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K


F L O R I D A

STATE PROFILE



According to 2018 Census American Community Survey data, Latinos comprise more than one of every four Floridians (26%), and 20% of the state’s voting-age U.S. citizens. The NALEO Educational Fund projects that at least 1,832,900 Florida Latinos will vote in the 2020 general election.




DEMOCRAT:

REPUBLICAN:

OTHER:

13,508,833

2,377,298

17.6%

915,884

572,744

888,670

DEM

OC

RA

T

REP

UB

LIC

AN

OTH

ER

38.5% 24.1% 37.4%


AMERICANASIAN/


26.1% 53.3% 15.3% 0.2% 2.7% 2.4%




28 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K F L O R I D A

F L O R I D A



The Latino share of voters in Florida has increased steadily during the past three Presidential elections. Between November 2012 and November 2016, the Latino share grew from 17.3% to 18.1%, an increase of 4.8%.





Actual Voters 863,000 4,709,000 892,000 5,328,000 1,393,000 6,525,000





Actual Voters 1,227,000 6,724,000 1,399,000 6,708,000 1,552,000 7,026,000

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

85.66%

14.34%

2014

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

84.51%

15.49%

2010

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

82.41%

17.59%

2018

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

82.74%

17.26%

2012

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

84.57%

15.43%

2008

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

81.91%

18.09%

2016


29F L O R I D A 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K

F L O R I D A


■ NON-LATINOS



% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

60.2% 59.7%

36.0%

74.0%

46.7%

63.1%

2014

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

59.0%

69.7%

41.1%

69.7%

44.4%

63.7%

2010

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

69.4%

88.9%

61.7%

90.9%

64.2%70.6%

2008

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

72.1%

86.3%

62.2%

89.7%

60.6%67.5%

2012

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

62.0%

87.2%

54.1%

89.8%

60.8%

67.7%

2016

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

54.8%

80.8%

44.3%

84.6%

54.8%

64.8%

2018

ILLI

NO

IS


31I L L I N O I S 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K


I L L I N O I S

STATE PROFILE

REGISTERED VOTERS 2020


According to 2018 Census American Community Survey data, Latinos comprise 17% of Illinois’ total population, and 12% of the state’s voting-age U.S. citizens. The NALEO Educational Fund projects that at least 527,000 Illinois Latinos will vote in the 2020 general election.




7,842,004

748,322

9.5%


AMERICANASIAN/


17.3% 60.9% 13.8% 0.1% 5.6% 2.2%




32 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K I L L I N O I S

I L L I N O I S



The Latino share of all voters in Illinois the past three Presidential elections has fluctuated in a range between 5.8% and 9.2%. Between November 2012 and November 2016, the Latino share grew from 5.4% to 9.2%, an increase of 69.6%.





Actual Voters 214,000 3,753,000 218,000 3,516,000 354,000 4,386,000





Actual Voters 314,000 5,122,000 295,000 5,133,000 527,000 5,192,000

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

94.16%

5.84%

2014

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

94.30%

5.70%

2010

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

92.53%

7.47%

2018

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

94.57%

5.43%

2012

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

94.22%

5.78%

2008

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

90.79%

9.21%

2016


33I L L I N O I S 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K

I L L I N O I S


■ NON-LATINOS



% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

46.0%53.2%

24.4%

66.3%

43.6%

65.8%

2014

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

51.8%55.2%

28.6%

69.1%

46.7%

67.7%

2010

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

57.4%

81.6%

46.8%

88.8%

63.9%72.0%

2008

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

53.9%

71.1%

38.3%

85.4%

63.7%

74.6%

2012

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

59.1%

83.1%

49.1%

86.1%

65.7%

76.4%

2016

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

50.6%

65.9%

33.4%

79.3%

55.6%

70.1%

2018

NEW

JER

SEY


35N E W J E R S E Y 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K


N E W J E R S E Y

STATE PROFILE



According to 2018 Census American Community Survey data, Latinos comprise 21% of New Jersey’s total population and 15% of the state’s voting-age U.S. citizens. The NALEO Educational Fund projects that at least 481,600 New Jersey Latinos will vote in the 2020 general election.




DEMOCRAT:

REPUBLICAN:

OTHER:

5,671,610

723,197

12.8%

352,599

72,418

298,180

DEM

OC

RA

T

REP

UB

LIC

AN

OTH

ER

48.8% 10.0% 41.2%


AMERICANASIAN/


20.6% 54.6% 12.8% 0.1% 9.7% 2.2%




36 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K N E W J E R S E Y

N E W J E R S E Y



The Latino share of voters in New Jersey increased between the 2008 and 2012 Presidential Elections. Between November 2012 and November 2016, the Latino share remained the same at 10.8%.





Actual Voters 177,000 2,206,000 274,000 1,877,000 471,000 2,913,000





Actual Voters 337,000 3,300,000 395,000 3,275,000 395,000 3,270,000

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

87.24%

12.76%

2014

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

91.98%

8.02%

2010

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

86.08%

13.92%

2018

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

89.24%

10.76%

2012

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

90.73%

9.27%

2008

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

89.22%

10.78%

2016


37N E W J E R S E Y 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K

N E W J E R S E Y


■ NON-LATINOS



% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

61.7%55.1%

34.0%

54.8%

36.8%

67.1%

2014

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

45.2%

62.3%

28.2%

65.4%

43.3%

66.2%

2010

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

58.7%

86.9%

51.0%

90.8%

65.8%72.5%

2008

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

60.5%

84.4%

51.1%

84.9%

63.5%

74.8%

2012

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

53.2%

81.3%

43.3%

88.9%

64.8%72.9%

2016

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

62.8%

81.5%

51.2%

78.3%

54.5%

69.6%

2018

NEW

MEX

ICO


39N E W M E X I C O 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K


N E W M E X I C O

STATE PROFILE



According to 2018 Census American Community Survey data, Latinos are the largest population group in New Mexico, comprising nearly half (49%) of the state’s residents. New Mexico has the highest share of Latino residents of any state in the nation. The NALEO Educational Fund projects that at least 327,600 New Mexico Latinos will vote in the 2020 general election.




DEMOCRAT:

REPUBLICAN:

OTHER:

1,245,548

459,708

36.9%

257,781

87,447

114,480

DEM

OC

RA

T

REP

UB

LIC

AN

OTH

ER

56.1% 19.0% 24.9%


AMERICANASIAN/


49.1% 36.9% 1.9% 8.8% 1.5% 1.8%




40 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K N E W M E X I C O

N E W M E X I C O



In the past three Presidential election cycles, about one of every three New Mexico voters has been Latino, with the Latino share reaching 36.1% in November 2016.



Adult U.S. Citizens 516,000 846,000 503,000 914,000 597,000 888,000

Registered Voters 249,000 497,000 302,000 618,000 322,000 594,000

Actual Voters 183,000 396,000 179,000 467,000 242,000 473,000



Adult U.S. Citizens 539,000 813,000 544,000 882,000 571,000 825,000

Registered Voters 346,000 591,000 349,000 629,000 340,000 576,000

Actual Voters 289,000 557,000 306,000 572,000 276,000 489,000

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

72.29%

27.71%

2014

▲ LATINOS

68.39%

31.61%

2010

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

66.15%

33.85%

2018

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

65.15%

34.85%

2012

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

65.84%

34.16%

2008

NON-LATINO

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

63.92%

36.08%

2016


41N E W M E X I C O 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K

N E W M E X I C O


■ NON-LATINOS



% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

60.0% 59.3%

35.6%

75.6%

51.1%

67.6%

2014

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

48.3%

73.5%

35.5%

79.7%

46.8%

58.7%

2010

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

64.2%

83.5%

53.6%

94.2%

68.5%72.7%

2008

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

64.2%

87.7%

56.3%

90.9%

64.9%71.3%

2012

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

59.5%

81.2%

48.3%

84.9%

59.3%

69.8%

2016

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

53.9%

75.2%

40.5%

79.6%

53.3%

66.9%

2018

NEW

YO

RK


43N E W Y O R K 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K


N E W Y O R K

STATE PROFILE



According to 2018 Census American Community Survey data, Latinos account for nearly one of every five New Yorkers (19%), and are 15% of the state’s voting-age U.S. citizens. The NALEO Educational Fund projects that at least 1.0 million New York Latinos will vote in the 2020 general election.




DEMOCRAT:

REPUBLICAN:

OTHER:

11,540,299

1,429,360

12.4%

985,443

110,414

333,503

DEM

OC

RA

T

REP

UB

LIC

AN

OTH

ER

68.9% 7.7% 23.3%


AMERICANASIAN/


19.2% 55.2% 14.3% 0.2% 8.5% 2.6%




44 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K N E W Y O R K

N E W Y O R K



The Latino share of all voters increased steadily during the past three Presidential elections. Between November 2012 and November 2016, the Latino share increased from 10.9% to 11.2%.





Actual Voters 516,000 5,230,000 502,000 4,178,000 731,000 6,044,000




Registered Voters 836,000 7,622,000 983,000 7,904,000 1,044,000 8,098,000

Actual Voters 743,000 6,816,000 835,000 6,840,000 878,000 6,991,000

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

89.27%

10.73%

2014

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

91.02%

8.98%

2010

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

89.21%

10.79%

2018

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

89.12%

10.88%

2012

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

90.17%

9.83%

2008

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

88.84%

11.16%

2016



N E W Y O R K


■ NON-LATINOS



% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

55.8%50.5%

28.1%

59.0%

35.3%

59.9%

2014

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

51.8%

62.2%

32.2%

69.1%

45.2%

65.4%

2010

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

62.0%

88.9%

55.1%

89.4%

59.3%66.3%

2008

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

63.5%

84.9%

53.9%

86.5%

59.3%

68.5%

2012

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

60.2%

84.1%

50.6%

86.3%

58.2%

67.4%

2016

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

53.9%

75.9%

41.0%

79.6%

50.8%

63.8%

2018

TEX

AS


47T E X A S 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K


T E X A S

STATE PROFILE

REGISTERED VOTERS 2020


According to 2018 Census American Community Survey data, Texas has the second largest Latino population of any American state. Latinos account for 40% of Texas’ total population, and are 30% of the state’s voting-age U.S. citizens. The NALEO Educational Fund projects that at least 2.2 million Latino Texans will vote in the 2020 general election.




14,381,128

3,792,315

26.4%


AMERICANASIAN/


39.6% 41.4% 11.9% 0.2% 4.9% 1.9%




48 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K T E X A S

T E X A S



The Latino share of all voters in Texas the past three Presidential elections has fluctuated in a range between 20.1% and 21.9%.





Actual Voters 1,012,000 4,588,000 1,092,000 4,744,000 1,918,000 6,968,000





Actual Voters 1,697,000 6,738,000 1,890,000 6,753,000 1,938,000 7,688,000

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

81.28%

18.72%

2014

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

81.93%

18.07%

2010

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

78.42%

21.58%

2018

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

78.13%

21.87%

2012

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

79.88%

20.12%

2008

NON-LATINO

▲ LATINOS

79.87%

20.13%

2016


49T E X A S 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K

T E X A S


■ NON-LATINOS



% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

46.2% 48.4%

22.4%

61.7%

39.6%

64.3%

2014

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

53.3%

43.4%

23.1%

64.1%

41.6%

64.9%

2010

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

54.3%

69.5%

37.8%

87.7%

63.9%

72.8%

2008

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

54.5%

71.3%

38.8%

83.4%

60.3%

72.3%

2012

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

55.5%

73.0%

40.5%

84.8%

61.0%

72.0%

2016

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

50.8%

67.5%

34.3%

79.3%

54.5%

68.8%

2018

50 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K C O M PA R I S O N

In 1996, the U.S. Census Bureau provided data that made it possible to compare the voter participation of native-born and naturalized citizens. The following pages provide comparison of those data for the nation and four states with relatively large Latino naturalized citizen populations (California, Florida, New York and Texas).

In every Presidential election since 1996, the national turnout rates of Latino naturalized registered voters and naturalized voting-age citizens have been higher than those of their Latino native-born counterparts. As set forth in the table below, in the 2016 Presidential election, 90% of naturalized Latino registered voters cast ballots nationally, compared to 81% of Latino native-born registered voters. In 2012 and 2016, in California, Florida, New York and Texas, naturalized Latino registered voter turnout rates exceeded those of the Latino native-born, although the gap fluctuated with each election.

Similarly, in California, Florida and Texas, in 2012 and 2016, the turnout rate of naturalized Latino voting-age citizens exceeded the turnout rate of their native-born counterparts. In New York, the pattern was the same in 2016, but reversed in 2012.

C O M P A R I S O N : P A RT I C I P AT I O N O F L AT I N ON AT I V E - B O R N A N D N AT U R A L I Z E D C I T I Z E N S

LATINO NATURALIZED CITIZEN AND NATIVE-BORN TURNOUT IN 2012 AND 2016

TURNOUT OF REGISTERED VOTERS TURNOUT OF VOTING-AGE CITIZENS

NATURALIZED NATIVE-BORN

National2012 87.4% 79.7%2016 89.5% 80.7%

California2012 88.9% 84.4%2016 91.1% 84.5%

Florida2012 88.8% 83.9%2016 90.6% 84.9%

New York2012 86.1% 84.5%2016 93.9% 79.3%

Texas2012 83.4% 69.1%2016 81.8% 71.1%

NATURALIZED NATIVE-BORN

National2012 53.6% 46.1%2016 53.4% 45.5%

California2012 54.8% 46.2%2016 50.6% 46.0%

Florida2012 68.7% 56.9%2016 59.7% 50.5%

New York2012 50.9% 55.1%2016 60.2% 46.3%

Texas2012 42.5% 38.1%2016 47.3% 39.1%


51C O M PA R I S O N 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K

C O M P A R I S O N : P A RT I C I P AT I O N O FN AT I V E - B O R N & N AT U R A L I Z E D C I T I Z E N S

As noted in the “Introduction” of the Handbook, researchers and political observers have partly attributed the relatively higher voter turnout rates of naturalized Latino citizens to changes in the political and policy climate. In particular, Latinos have mobilized in response to the intense tone and tenor of the policy debate on immigration, and to political attacks on Latinos and Latino immigrants. These factors are very much present in the political and policy environment of Election 2020. However, it is unclear what role they will play in a climate where Latinos are also focused on economic and health care issues during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Given the unique set of circumstances surrounding the 2020 Presidential election, a deeper and more profound understanding of the issues and outreach strategies that bring all Latino voters to the polling place on Election Day — regardless of where they were born — will be a vital element in helping Latinos fully participate in the American political process.

52 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K T H E N AT I O N

T H E N AT I O N

VOTER TURNOUT AND REGISTRATION

■ NATIVE-BORN

■ NATURALIZED


% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

57.9%

79.7%

46.1%

87.4%

53.6%61.3%

2012 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

73.4%

87.4%

64.1%

85.9%

53.7%

62.5%

2012 NON-LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

49.3% 49.2%

24.2%

61.6%

35.2%

57.1%

2014 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

67.1% 66.4%

44.6%

60.6%

33.5%

55.3%

2014 NON-LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

56.4%

80.7%

45.5%

89.5%

53.4%59.7%

2016 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

72.8%

87.8%

63.9%

87.2%

54.7%62.7%

2016 NON-LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

53.3%

73.1%

39.0%

80.6%

44.2%

54.9%

2018 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

69.5%

80.6%

56.0%

77.6%

46.6%

60.0%

2018 NON-LATINO

ELIGIBLE POPULATION, VOTING AND REGISTRATION 2018LATINO NON-LATINO

NATIVE NATURALIZED NATIVE NATURALIZED

Adult U.S. Citizens 21,192,714 7,762,524 185,829,147 14,047,325 Registered Voters 11,297,576 4,260,210 129,079,244 8,428,857 Actual Voters 8,261,326 3,433,174 104,041,499 6,544,638


C A L I F O R N I A


■ NATIVE-BORN

■ NATURALIZED


% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

54.5%

84.5%

46.0%

91.1%

50.6%55.6%

2016 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

70.4%

91.3%

64.2%

87.5%

53.2%60.8%

2016 NON-LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

55.8%

76.4%

42.7%

84.1%

45.4%

53.9%

2018 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

65.9%

88.0%

58.0%

78.9%

44.0%

55.8%

2018 NON-LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

54.7%

84.4%

46.2%

88.9%

54.8%61.7%

2012 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

70.9%

89.2%

63.2%

82.9%

49.1%

59.2%

2012 NON-LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

45.5% 47.2%

21.5%

63.0%

34.8%

55.3%

2014 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

63.6%67.6%

43.0%

63.0%

32.8%

52.0%

2014 NON-LATINO



Adult U.S. Citizens 5,643,850 1,968,808 14,739,082 3,173,215Registered Voters 3,148,818 1,062,032 9,709,854 1,769,707Actual Voters 2,407,164 892,870 8,542,957 1,396,655

54 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K F L O R I D A

F L O R I D A


■ NATIVE-BORN

■ NATURALIZED


% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

59.5%

84.9%

50.5%

90.6%

59.7%65.9%

2016 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

68.0%

90.0%

61.2%

87.8%

56.8%64.7%

2016 NON-LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

51.4%

75.5%

38.8%

86.5%

50.9%

58.8%

2018 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

65.7%

84.5%

55.5%

86.4%

48.3%

55.9%

2018 NON-LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

67.8%

83.9%

56.9%

88.8%

68.7%

77.4%

2012 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

68.1%

89.7%

61.1%

89.4%

53.8%60.1%

2012 NON-LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

54.6% 52.1%

28.4%

66.7%

44.3%

66.5%

2014 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

62.9%

74.2%

46.7%

72.4%

47.3%

65.2%

2014 NON-LATINO



Adult U.S. Citizens 1,719,935 1,425,632 10,806,671 1,094,456Registered Voters 884,768 838,230 7,100,431 611,563Actual Voters 667,563 725,071 5,997,620 528,149


N E W Y O R K


■ NATIVE-BORN

■ NATURALIZED


% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

58.4%

79.3%

46.3%

93.9%

60.2%64.2%

2016 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

69.5%

86.5%

60.1%

85.2%

47.1%

55.3%

2016 NON-LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

54.4%

74.6%

40.6%

79.3%

41.8%

52.8%

2018 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

64.7%

80.4%

52.1%

75.0%

44.2%

59.0%

2018 NON-LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

65.2%

84.5%

55.1%

86.1%

50.9%59.1%

2012 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

69.8%

86.2%

60.2%

88.3%

54.5%61.8%

2012 NON-LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

54.3%48.3%

26.2%

54.7%

32.3%

59.0%

2014 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

61.4% 60.1%

36.9%

50.7%

25.8%

50.9%

2014 NON-LATINO



Adult U.S. Citizens 1,262,356 522,941 9,994,032 1,904,591Registered Voters 686,644 275,940 6,467,562 1,123,139Actual Voters 512,213 218,689 5,201,894 842,357

56 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K T E X A S

T E X A S


■ NATIVE-BORN

■ NATURALIZED


% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

55.0%

71.1%

39.1%

81.8%

47.3%

57.8%

2016 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

72.9%

84.5%

61.6%

88.4%

53.0%60.0%

2016 NON-LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

50.8%

66.7%

33.9%

70.4%

36.0%

51.1%

2018 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

69.0%

79.7%

55.0%

72.3%

47.4%

65.5%

2018 NON-LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

55.2%

69.1%

38.1%

83.4%

42.5%51.0%

2012 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

73.7%

83.7%

61.6%

76.0%

46.1%

60.7%

2012 NON-LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

46.1% 47.2%

21.8%

55.0%

25.7%

46.8%

2014 LATINO

% VOTERREGISTRATION

OF U.S. CITIZENS

% VOTERTURNOUT OF

REGISTERED VOTERS


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

64.9% 62.5%

40.6%47.4%

25.7%

54.3%

2014 NON-LATINO



Adult U.S. Citizens 4,523,075 1,071,059 11,914,770 865,301Registered Voters 2,295,741 547,669 8,223,722 567,064Actual Voters 1,532,125 385,713 6,557,969 409,800

57S O U R C E S & M E T H O D O L O G Y 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K

S O U R C E S & M E T H O D O L O G Y

TOTAL ADULT U.S. CITIZEN ANDLATINO ADULT U.S. CITIZEN POPULATION

The Handbook uses two different data sources for the total adult U.S. citizen (CVAP) population and Latino CVAP. In the introductory section for the nation and each state, the data were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey (ACS), a survey that is sent to a sample of the U.S. population on a rotating basis. These data were compiled from the 2018 ACS 1-year estimates. For the sections that present data on the “Eligible Population, Voting and Registration,” the CVAP figures are derived from the U.S. Census Bureau’s November Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS is a monthly survey of about 60,000 households. The survey is conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau on behalf of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

We chose to present ACS data for CVAP in the introductory sections of the Handbook because the ACS sampling methodology and coverage produces figures that are generally more accurate than those of the CPS. We chose to present CPS data for CVAP in the sections on “Eligible Population, Voting and Registration,” in order to enhance comparability with the Handbook’s historical voting and registration data that is also derived from the CPS. For more information about the limitations of CPS data, see “Voter Turnout and Registration from 2008 to 2018” below. Because of differences in the sampling methodology and coverage of the CPS, there may be limitations on the comparability of CVAP data from the ACS and the CPS.

PROJECTED LATINO VOTE

NALEO Educational Fund derived our projection of the Latino vote in Election 2020 by using a statistical modeling approach that takes into account trends in Latino voter turnout in the past several relevant Presidential election cycles. We determined Latino voter turnout in those cycles from Census data in its CPS biennial November supplements, Voting and Registration in the Elections of November 2000-2016. Because the projections are based on past voting trends, they do not take into account the potential increase or decrease in Latino turnout that could that could result from the COVID-19 pandemic, the scope of voter engagement efforts, Latino naturalization trends, restrictive voter registration and voting laws or other factors.


These percentages are derived from the U.S. Bureau of the Census’ 2018 ACS 1-year estimates. For the ACS estimates, respondents are first asked whether or not they are of Hispanic or Latino origin. They are then asked to identify their race, and can indicate more than one racial category. The “Latino” category in the Handbook represents the Bureau’s figures for all persons of Hispanic origin, regardless of their race. The “White,” “Black,” “Asian/Pacific Islander,” and “Native American” categories are based on figures for non-Hispanics who are of only one race. The “Other” category is based on the figures for non-Hispanics who either indicated they are of another race, or are two or more races.

58 2 0 2 0 L AT I N O E L E C T I O N H A N D B O O K S O U R C E S & M E T H O D O L O GY

S O U R C E S & M E T H O D O L O G Y

VOTER TURNOUT AND REGISTRATION FROM 2008 TO 2018

Several charts and tables in the Handbook utilize data from the biennial U.S. Bureau of the Census reports on Voting and Registration in the Elections of November: 2008-2018. These reports use data from the Census Bureau’s November CPS and its biennial Voting and Registration Supplement. The CPS data and the survey from which they are derived are subject to certain limitations. First, actual voter turnout and registration may be overestimated by the CPS, because individuals may tend to over-report electoral participation. Additionally, the CPS is a national survey, and estimates derived for smaller sub-groups within the national population (for example, the Latino populations in Colorado, New Jersey, New Mexico, Arizona, and Illinois), may be based on relatively small sample sizes. Consequently, the margin of error associated with estimates of voting and registration for these sub-groups is greater than the margin associated with the national population or larger population sub-groups.

VOTER REGISTRATION AND PARTY AFFILIATION

2020 state voter registration and Latino party affiliation data were obtained from the NGP Voter Activation Network voter file, which compiles data from voter registration files managed by individual states and counties. Insofar as voter registration files contain information on individual registration, party affiliation, and actual turnout based on the actual registration and voting behavior of voters, they are somewhat more reliable than exit poll or survey data, which are based on voters’ self-reporting of these activities. In exit polls and surveys, respondents may over-report their electoral participation. Voter registration file data are still subject to some errors and limitations. Most states do not require individual voters to provide information on their race and/or ethnicity. Therefore, analysts identify Latino registered voters in the files through the use of independent software applications that generally utilize Spanish surnames to identify Latino registered voters. However, some individuals with Spanish surnames are not Latino, and some Latinos do not have Spanish surnames. Thus, Spanish surname software applications are subject to error because they do not capture a precise count of Latino registered voters, rather only those registered voters who possess a Spanish surname. Additionally, voter registration files are subject to data entry errors, whereby voter information may be accidentally omitted or incorrectly entered by state and county data entry personnel.

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Los Angeles, CA 90015www.naleo.org

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