2020 Mobile Source Strategy:A Vision for Clean Air

Informational UpdateApril 23, 2020

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2020 Mobile Source Strategy:A Vision for Clean Air

• Builds on 2016 Mobile Source Strategy• Conceptual scenario approach• Identifies potential technology mixes

needed to meet air quality and climate targets

• Meets SB 44 requirements• Informs policy development

2

Addressing Multiple Goals

2023: South

Coast & SJV

Ozone

2024/25: AB 617

Communities South Coast

& SJV PM2.5

2030: GHG

40 percent below 1990

2031: South

Coast & SJV

Ozone

2037: South

Coast & SJV

Ozone

2045: Carbon

Neutrality

2050: GHG

80 percent below 1990

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Prioritizing Benefits to Disadvantaged Communities (DACs)

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• DACs and people of color are disproportionately affected by mobile pollution

• Develop scenarios with focus on benefits in DACs

• Seek rapid transition to zero-emission technology in and near DACs

• Complement AB 617 strategies

Mobile Source Contribution

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Areawide3%

Mobile80%

Stationary17%

2017 Statewide NOx EmissionsTotal = 1294 tons per day

Transportation40%

Electric Power15%

Industrial21%

Commercial & Residential

10%

Agriculture7%

High GWP5%

Recycling & Waste

2%

2017 Statewide GHG EmissionsTotal = 424 MMTCO2e

2016 Mobile Source Strategy

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Regulatory Progress

Regulation AdoptedPhase 2 GHG Standards for Medium/ Heavy-Duty Vehicles

Feb 2018

Lower Opacity Limits for HD Vehicles May 2018

Amended Warranty Requirements for HD Vehicles

June 2018

Innovative Clean Transit Dec 2018

Zero-Emission Airport Shuttle Buses June 2019

Regulations In Development

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Regulation Progress Anticipated Consideration

Ocean Going Vessels – At Berth 1st hearing Dec 2019 Spring 2020Advanced Clean Trucks 1st hearing Dec 2019 Spring 2020Heavy-Duty Low-NOx Omnibus Workshops since 2016 Mid 2020Transport Refrigeration Units Workshops since 2016 Late 2020Small Off-Road Engines Workshops since 2016

Evap Reg amended 11/2016Late 2020

Heavy-Duty I/M Workshops since 2019 2021Advanced Clean Cars 2 In Development 2021

Low-Emission Diesel Requirement Workshops since 2019 2021

On-Road Vehicles

8

Areawide3%

Stationary17%

Light Duty Vehicles13%

MediuVeh

6

Heavy Duty Vehicles

26%

Off-Road Mobile35%

Statewide NOx Emissions

im Duty cles%

Light Duty Vehicles28%

Medium Duty Vehicles2%

Heavy Duty Vehicles7%

Off-Road Mobile4%

Other Sectors(industrial, electricity

generation. etc.)59%

Statewide GHG Emissions

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Current Scenario for Light-Duty• 100% sales ZEVs & PHEVs by 2035; Does not go far enough• Staff continue to evaluate more ambitious ZEV sales scenarios

and the impact of high mileage vehicles

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Hea

vy-d

uty

Vehi

cle

Popu

latio

n (th

ousa

nds)

2010 Cert.

2045

Sales&

Accelerated Turnover

31%44%

23%21%

24%76%

Low-NOxHD ZEV & Accelerated Turnover

HD ZEV

2031 2037

Heavy-Duty Technology Mix Needed

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Heavy-Duty Vehicle Strategies

• Aggressive ZEV penetration and accelerated turnoverof older vehicles

• Cleaner diesel technology (Low-NOx Standard)• In-use performance measures (Heavy-Duty Inspection

and Maintenance Program)• Continued energy efficiency improvements• Renewable fuels where electrification is not feasible

26%

NOx

7%GHG

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Medium-Duty Vehicle Strategies

• ZEV penetration• Enhanced LEV regulations Advanced Clean Cars 2 – Post 2025 automaker rules

• Continued energy efficiency improvements

6% 2%

GHGNOx

Light-Duty Vehicle Strategies

• Aggressive ZEV penetration• Enhanced ZEV and LEV regulations Advanced Clean Cars 2 Clean Miles Standard (SB 1014) – Reducing GHG emissions

from ride hailing

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13%NOx 28%

GHG

Off-Road Sector

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• Off-road NOx is 35 percent of total, expected to grow to become the largest share by 2022

• Off-road annual diesel consumption will reach 2.13 billion gallons by 2045

On-Road 45%

Stationary & Area 20%

Construction, Industrial &

MiningAgriculture

Aircraft

Locomotive PleasureC

raft

PortableEquip.

OceanGoing Vessel

Com

mercial

Harbor C

raftTRU

Small

Off-R

oad

CHE

Off-Road Engine Strategies

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• Zero-emission technology wherever possible• Remaining combustion engines as low-emitting as

technically feasible Tier 5, OBD and GHG standard

• Accelerated turnover of older equipment to cleanestavailable technology

• Retrofit with after-treatment technologies• Renewable fuels where electrification is not feasible

Energy and Infrastructure Needs• Zero-emission technology for both on- and

off-road sectors requires streamlinedinfrastructure build-out

• AB 2127: CEC preparing infrastructureassessment for meeting 2030 ZEV and GHGgoals

• Significant investments being made ininfrastructure

• Staff is coordinating with CEC and CPUC onassessment of infrastructure needs

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Timeline for Completing 2020 MSS

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Scenario Modeling Ongoing

Public Webinar March 2020

Informational Update to the Board April 2020

Release Draft Document Fall 2020

Board Consideration Late 2020

Public Webinar Feedback

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What will CARB do if incentive funding does not materialize?

What renewable fuels is CARB considering when electrification is not feasible?

What does CARB plan to do different to get back on track with California’s VMT/GHG goals?

How will COVID-19 impact the development of the Mobile Source Strategy and regulatory efforts?

Needed Transformation• Zero-emission transformation in every sector

possible is key to California's future

• Streamlined infrastructure build-out is necessary tofacilitate transition to ZEVs

• Significant investments are needed to enableaccelerated transition to a zero-emission future

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Thank you

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