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2019TM
Welcome to the 2019 edition of the Miami ReportTM
For the last nine years, ISG has produced and published the Miami Report. In each report, we have documented the unparalleled growth of South Florida and chronicled its journey in becoming an area of global importance and its rise as a truly world-class destination.
Our market research department has worked tirelessly over the past several months tracking new developments in order to present a clear picture of the current state of our condominium market. Once again, we have assembled and graphically presented what we deem to be critical information for real estate industry leaders as they make decisions on future development and investment.
The constant changes in political climates of our neighbors to the south, Central and South America, and the strength of the U.S. dollar have had a profound effect on the absorption of new developer condo inventory over the last four years. This has resulted in a challenging condo market for urban centers reliant on international buyers.
So where are we now and what lies ahead for our immediate future? We believe the data we have assembled and are presenting will confront you with what we have labeled a “supply shock.”
South Florida continues to be one of the fastest-growing areas in the United States. However, the stubbornness of the high U.S. dollar has, for the most part,slowed any meaningful new condominium development. Despite the slowdown, our data reveals just 2,101 unsold developer condo units in our market area, with only 587 of these units being standing inventory. The remaining units are either under construction or in the pre-construction phase. Even at the lower absorption rates of the past two years, the total remaining unsold inventory should be absorbed in the next 18 to 24 months.
Developers are expecting to launch pre-sale campaigns for the next cycle in 2020. Factoring in the height of these new towers, which are planned to reach 60 to 100 stories, it’s evident that most of these future buildings won’t be available for occupancy until 2024 or 2025 at the earliest. What becomes clear is that after the current developer inventory is sold, a buyer relocating in the next several years will need to look solely to MLS/resale inventory to satisfy immediate needs, thus the title of this Miami Report, “Supply Shock.”
We trust you will find our report informative and concise. We have endeavored to present the current conditions factually. We hope that this data will help you formulate your own conclusions and guide you to take advantage of what the current state-of-the-market is offering as you develop your business plans.
Sincerely,
The Miami ReportTM is produced for general interest only. It is not definitive and is not intended to give advice. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis and views presented in the Miami Report,
no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by ISG World, International Sales Group, LLC and/or Related ISG International Realty for the contents. We make no express or implied guarantee of the accuracy of any of the contents.
As far as applicable laws allow, we do not accept responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions, nor for loss or damage that may result directly or indirectly from reliance on or use of its contents. Readers should not take or refrain from
taking any action as a result of information in the Miami Report.
CEOCraig Studnicky
PresidentMichael Ambrosio
Chief Marketing OfficerVeronica Escobedo Gorson
President, RelatedISG International RealtyAlex Vidal
Creative DirectorEdward Trelles
Director of Market Research Athena Rossano
EditorialRebecca StellaSenior Marketing & Communications Associate
DesignersEmiliana ZelkowiczGraphic Designer
Maria LatorreGraphic Designer
ContributorsRowena LunaMarketing Director, RelatedISG International Realty
Sergio PintosExecutive V.P. of Sales
Chrystal LozanoMarketing Associate
Lian OteizaMarketing Associate
Special thanks to: Becky Randel, MOR Printing, Inc., Element Image, Morphoto Inc., and Unsplash.com
C
PAGE
46
PAGE
50
PAGE58
TransportationSouth Florida’s inter-city rail service,
seaport and airports continue to expand
year after year, improving accessibility to
the region.
MLS/RESALE MARKET & RENTAL TRENDS34
Cultural &EconomicGrowthThe growth and diversification of the
sectors impacting Miami’s culture
and economy further position
Miami as a top global city.
LANDSCAPE OF THE FUTURE - A wave of new developments
in Greater downtown Miami is transforming the area into a
world-class neighborhood.
76
COMMERCIAL SNAPSHOT42
InternationalAn update on some of the most active
international markets currently impacting
Miami real estate.
ONTESTN
0302
2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
ISG CITY WATCH: BRICKELL74
NEW CONSTRUCTION CONDO DEVELOPMENT
An analysis and current status of South Florida’s new
developer condominium market.
08
DEMAND - Florida’s population grows by more than
900 people everyday.
22
PAGESupply ShockFeatured Story04 Dwindling new developer condo
inventory paired with increasing
demand has resulted in a shocking
shortage of new condo inventory.
WEALTH REPORT24
Brickell City Centre
Echo Brickell
ON THE GROUND - Expert insights on the South Florida
real estate landscape from president of RelatedISG
International Realty, Alex Vidal.
78
FEATURED STORY
The accelerated decline of new developer condo inventory
2019 MIAMI REPORT
04
The dwindling of new developer
condo inventory paired with
increasing demand for South Florida
condo living has resulted in a shocking
shortage of new condo inventory that
the market has never seen before.
ISGWORLD.COM
Low Remaining Developer Inventory
Based on the current absorption rate, this remaining
developer inventory is projected to be absorbed by 2021
SUPPLY
Of the 19,868 condominium units that were developed in the
current condo cycle and since 2012, 89 percent have been sold,
leaving just 2,101 new developer units available for sale across
South Florida, from Coconut Grove to Fort Lauderdale, east of
I-95. At the current rate of sales, the absorption projection for
this remaining inventory is as follows:
For more information on supply, see page 8.
587 Delivered Units ...............................................Estimated Sellout: 12 Months
1,331 Under Construction Units ...........................Estimated Sellout: 24 Months
183 Pre-Construction Units ...................................Estimated Sellout: 24 Months
Remaining Developer Inventory
Florida’s Daily Population Growth
The number of people Florida’s
population grows by each day
(does not include second-home buyers)
DEMAND
Every day, Florida’s population grows by more than 900 people.
Of those moving to Florida from other countries and other states,
45 percent of them move to South Florida. While states like New York
and Illinois are losing population every day, Florida’s population growth
is the second-fastest in the country, resulting in an ever-increasing
demand for real estate.
For more information on demand, see page 22.
Miami-Dade ............................................................ 82,308
Broward .................................................................. 39,508
West Palm Beach.................................................... 26,338
Total ...................................................................... 148,154
South Florida Yearly Population Growth Breakdown
New CondoDevelopment Cycle
The year developers plan to launch new
condominium developments
THE NEXT CYCLE
As shocking as the current low level of new developer condo
inventory is, it is the future supply of inventory that is more concerning.
The lack of condominium groundbreakings over the years is daunting
compared to South Florida’s history. Major real estate developers
expect to launch pre-sale programs for their next developments in
2020, kicking off the next condo cycle, with the majority of those
developments being delivered in 2024 or 2025 at the earliest.
For more information on the next cycle, see page 21.
ISGWORLD.COM
NEXT CYCLE
Projected start of next cycle
Projected delivery of new developer inventoryin the next cycle
PROJECTIONS
07
Remaining developer inventory
2019 MIAMI REPORT
SUMMARY
CURRENT CYCLE
Florida’s daily population growth
(587 Delivered / 1,331 Under Construction / 183 Pre-construction)
Supply Shock SummaryTotal new construction condo units currently available for sale in Brickell, Biscayne Corridor (Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown, Design District, Omni), Downtown
Miami, The Beaches (South Beach, Miami Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands, Sunny Isles Beach, Hallandale Beach, Hollywood Beach), Aventura,
North Miami Beach, Coconut Grove and Key Biscayne since 2012
06
NEW CONSTRUCTION CONDODEVELOPMENT
CURRENT CYCLE
NEW
CON
STRUCTION
CON
DO
DEVELO
PMEN
T
0908
ISGWORLD.COM
Downtown Miami Photo by Janis Laubergs
2019 MIAMI REPORT
New Construction Condo Development SummaryTotal new construction condo units sold and currently available for sale in Brickell, Biscayne Corridor (Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown, Design District, Omni),
Downtown Miami, the Beaches (South Beach, Miami Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands, Sunny Isles Beach, Hallandale Beach, Hollywood Beach),
Aventura, North Miami Beach, Coconut Grove and Key Biscayne since 2012
TOTAL DEVELOPER UNITS SOLD DEVELOPER UNITS REMAINING DEVELOPER INVENTORY
Total new construction condo developer units east of I-95 and available for sale since 2012
New Construction Condo Inventory Analysis - Sold vs. Unsold
89% SOLD As of May 2019
19,868 Total Units
17,767Total Sold Units
2,101Remaining Developer Inventory
(587 Delivered / 1,331 Under Construction / 183 Pre-Construction)
Macro 2016-2021 Absorption Analysis for New Condos Built Since 2012
REMAINING DEVELOPER INVENTORY
NEW
CON
STRUCTION
CON
DO
DEVELO
PMEN
T
11
2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
10
CURRENT CYCLE CURRENT CYCLE
Jan 2012 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
6,515
19,868
5,1953,860
2,101
Summer 2020*
420*
1,340Average Annual
Absorption(Last 3 years)
*Projected
As of May 2019
2,498
Jan 2019
1,238*
Jan 2020*
Delivered Inventory Sold Out Pre-Construction/Under Construction Remaining
Dec 2021*
0*
15,054Delivered
4,454Under Construction
587 Unsold
1,331 Unsold
183 Unsold
360Pre-Construction
Tota
l New
Con
stru
ctio
n D
evel
oper
Uni
ts
96% Sold
70% Sold
50% Sold
Source: Developer Sales Reports, Miami-Dade and Broward County Property appraisers and onsite sales staff
Cassa Brickell 81 Total Units100% SOLD
Echo Brickell 180 Total Units98% SOLD
Le Parc 128 Total Units100% SOLD
Nine at Mary Brickell Village 390 Total Units100% SOLD
My Brickell 192 Total Units100% SOLD
SLS Hotel and Residences 453 Total Units100% SOLD
SLS Lux 450 Total Units100% SOLD
50 Total Units100% SOLD
Smart Brickell Tower II 50 Total Units66% SOLD
The Bond 323 Total Units100% SOLD
Smart Brickell Tower I
*Est. % Sold - Project won’t release the information
5,757 Total Units / 5,461 Sold Units (95%) / 296 Unsold Units
Brickell - 95% SoldTotal new construction condo units available for sale since 2012
SOLD DEVELOPER UNITS UNSOLD DEVELOPER UNITS
D RECENTLY DELIVERED P PRE-CONSTRUCTIONUNDER CONSTRUCTIONU
250 Wynwood 11 Total Units
Baltus House 167 Total Units100% SOLD
100% SOLDW Y N W O O D
D E S I G N D I S T R I C T
E D G E WAT E R
Hyde Midtown* 410 Total Units100% SOLD
Aria On The Bay 648 Total Units96% SOLD
Canvas 513 Total Units
Aston Martin Residences
One Thousand Museum 83 Total Units82% SOLD
Paramount Miami Worldcenter 513 Total Units85% SOLD
M I D T O W N
D O W N T O W N M I A M I
O M N I
100% SOLDCentro 352 Total Units
48% SOLD 390 Total Units
94% SOLD
96 Total Units100% SOLD23 Biscayne Bay
Bay House 165 Total Units100% SOLD
Biscayne Beach 399 Total Units100% SOLD
The Crimson 90 Total Units100% SOLD
Elysee 100 Total Units49% SOLD
Icon Bay 300 Total Units100% SOLD
Gran Paraiso 95% SOLD 333 Total Units
Missoni Baia 249 Total Units40% SOLD
26 Edgewater 86 Total Units94% SOLD
Emilia Edgewater 30 Total Units100 % SOLD
One Paraiso 280 Total Units100% SOLD
Paraiso Bayviews 396 Total Units99% SOLD
Paraiso Bay 100% SOLD *360 Condo tower only*Bay homes not included
Biscayne Corridor - 94% Sold Downtown Miami - 76% Sold
Biscayne Corridor: 4,633 Total Units / 4,358 Sold Units (94%) / 275 Unsold UnitsDowntown Miami: 1,718 Total Units / 1,307 Sold Units (76%) / 411 Unsold Units
Total new construction condo units available for sale since 2012 (Wynwood, Design District,
Edgewater, Midtown & Omni)
SOLD DEVELOPER UNITS UNSOLD DEVELOPER UNITS
D RECENTLY DELIVERED P PRE-CONSTRUCTIONUNDER CONSTRUCTIONU
Okan Tower 149 Total Units
1100 Millecento 382 Total Units
1010 Brickell
Brickell City Centre (Tower I) - Reach 390 Total Units
Brickell City Centre (Tower II) - Rise 390 Total Units
Brickell Heights East 367 Total Units100% SOLD
Brickell Heights West 332 Total Units100% SOLD
Brickell House 374 Total Units100% SOLD
Brickell Ten 155 Total Units100% SOLD
Brickell Flatiron 548 Total Units90% SOLD
B R I C K E L L
387 Total Units
Una Residences 135 Total Units45% SOLD
95% SOLD
100% SOLD
100% SOLD
70% SOLD
D
P
U
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
U
P
D
U
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
U
D
D
D
D
D
D
U
D
U
U
P 56% SOLD
YotelPad Miami 231 Total UnitsU74% SOLD
NEW
CON
STRUCTION
CON
DO
DEVELO
PMEN
T
13
2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM*Condo-hotel not included
M I A M I B E A C H /S O U T H B E A C H
The Beaches - 85% SoldTotal new construction condo units available for sale since 2012 (South Beach, Miami Beach,
Bay Harbor Islands, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles Beach, Hallandale Beach and Hollywood)
SOLD DEVELOPER UNITS UNSOLD DEVELOPER UNITS
D RECENTLY DELIVERED P PRE-CONSTRUCTIONUNDER CONSTRUCTIONU
4,325 Total Units / 3,656 Sold Units (85%) / 669 Unsold Units
*Est. % Sold - Project won’t release the information
Beach House 8
Edition Residences
Faena House
Glass
Louver House
Marea South Beach
One Ocean
Palau Sunset Harbour
Peloro on the Bay
Bay Breeze Residences
Kai at Bay Harbor
Le Jardin
O Residences
Eighty Seven Park
L’atelier
Three Hundred Collins
Pearl House
Sereno Bay Harbor
The Ivory
Ritz-Carlton Residences
321 Ocean
B AY H A R B O RI S L A N D S
Bijour Bay House
Club at Bay Harbor
The Palm Residences
The Waters
Monad Terrace*
Harbor Park
57 Ocean
8 Total Units
26 Total Units
47 Total Units
10 Total Units
12 Total Units
30 Total Units
50 Total Units
45 Total Units
114 Total Units
66 Total Units
23 Total Units
19 Total Units
111 Total Units
21 Total Units
100% SOLD
100% SOLD
100% SOLD100% SOLD
100% SOLD
100% SOLD
100% SOLD
100% SOLD
100% SOLD
85% SOLD
100% SOLD
100% SOLD
72% SOLD
100% SOLD
58 Total Units20% SOLD
81 Total Units18% SOLD
17 Total Units
57 Total Units
30 Total Units
41 Total Units
15 Total Units
40 Total Units
42 Total Units
41 Total Units
42 Total Units
100% SOLD
96% SOLD
80% SOLD
100% SOLD
76% SOLD
100% SOLD
88% SOLD
80% SOLD
100% SOLD42 Total Units86% SOLD
9 Total Units50% SOLD
17 Total Units100% SOLD
D
U
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
U
D
D
D
U
U
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
U
D
D
D
U
U
Oceana 240 Total Units80% SOLDB A L H A R B O U R
Hyde Beach House
Hyde Resort and Residences
Sage Beach
Apogee Beach
H O L LY W O O DB E A C H
342 Total Units (Now including all residences)85% SOLD
407 Total Units100% SOLD
24 Total Units100% SOLD
49 Total Units100% SOLD
BeachwalkH A L L A N D A L E B E A C H
2000 Ocean*
400 Sunny Isles
Aurora
Residences by Armani Casa
Chateau Beach
Mansions at Acqualina
Muse
Parque Towers
Porsche Design Tower
Regalia
Ritz-Carlton Residences
Turnberry Ocean Club
Jade Signature
The Estates at Acqualina
S U N N Y I S L E SB E A C H
84 Total Units100% SOLD64 Total Units15% SOLD
308 Total Units
320 Total Units100% SOLD
212 Total Units
192 Total Units
242 Total Units
230 Total Units100% SOLD
61 Total Units72% SOLD78% SOLD
81 Total Units100% SOLD
79 Total Units100% SOLD
68 Total Units93% SOLD
132 Total Units96% SOLD
39 Total Units100% SOLD75% SOLD
154 Total Units53% SOLD
96% SOLD
75% SOLD
D
D
U
U
D
D
U
D
D
D
D
D
U
U
U
D
D
U
D
D
NEW
CON
DO
CON
STRUCTION
Fendi Chateau 58 Total Units100% SOLDDS U R F S I D E
Surf Club Four Seasons Private Residences 150 Total Units87% SOLDD
The Sophie 26 Total Units - Just releasedP
NEW
CON
STRUCTION
CON
DO
DEVELO
PMEN
T
15
2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
2000 Ocean* 64 Total Units15% SOLD U
Arte Surfside 16 Total Units13% SOLD U
158 Total Units
Aventura Park Square 131 Total Units85% SOLD
Bellini 70 Total Units100% SOLD
Echo Aventura 100% SOLD
Privé 86% SOLD
190 Total UnitsAV E N T U R A
North Miami Beach & Aventura - 97% SoldTotal new construction condo units available for sale since 2012
1,442 Total Units / 1,392 Sold Units (97%) / 50 Unsold Units
SOLD DEVELOPER UNITS UNSOLD DEVELOPER UNITS
D RECENTLY DELIVERED P PRE-CONSTRUCTIONUNDER CONSTRUCTIONU
D
D
D
D
Oceana 100% SOLD
Grove at Grand Bay 100% SOLD
One Park Grove 60% SOLD
Two Park Grove 99% SOLD
Park Grove Club Residences 100% SOLD
Fairchild Residences
97 Total Units
67 Total Units
154 Total Units
73 Total Units
152 Total Units
26 Total Units75% SOLD
K E Y B I S C AY N E
C O C O N U T G R O V E
Glasshaus in the Grove 60% SOLD 23 Total Units
D
The Harbour
The Reserve at Marina Palms 99% SOLD
99% SOLD 425 Total Units
468 Total UnitsN O RT H M I A M IB E A C H
D
D
U
U
U
D
D
Fort Lauderdale - 74% SoldTotal new construction condo units available for sale since 2012
1,355 Total Units / 1,005 Sold Units (74%) / 350 Unsold Units
SOLD DEVELOPER UNITS UNSOLD DEVELOPER UNITS
D RECENTLY DELIVERED P PRE-CONSTRUCTIONUNDER CONSTRUCTIONU
321 at Water’s Edge 23 Total Units
Adagio on the Bay 12 Total Units100% SOLD
55% SOLD
Aquablu Fort Lauderdale 35 Total Units94% SOLD
Aqualuna Las Olas 16 Total Units100% SOLD
Aquamar Las Olas 20 Total Units100% SOLD
Aquavue Las Olas
100 Las Olas
8 Total Units
113 Total Units
75% SOLD
40% SOLD
Auberge Beach North Tower 57 Total Units100% SOLD
Auberge Beach South Tower 114 Total Units86% SOLD
Four Seasons Private Residences* 55% SOLD
Paramount Fort Lauderdale 95 Total Units100% SOLD
90 Total Units
Aquavita Las Olas 22 Total Units100% SOLD
Gale Hotel & Residences 129 Total Units100% SOLD
Adagio Fort Lauderdale Beach 31 Total Units71% SOLD
The Conrad 290 Total Units
Riva 100 Total Units75% SOLD
33 Intracoastal 11 Total Units100% SOLD
W Residences Fort Lauderdale 171 Total Units65% SOLD
Wave 18 Total Units89% SOLD
60% SOLD
*Est. % Sold - Project won’t release the information
D
D
D
U
D
D
D
D
D
U
D
D
U
D
D
D
R
R
U
R NEWLY RENOVATED
638 Total Units / 588 Sold Units (92%) / 50 Unsold Units
SOLD DEVELOPER UNITSSOLD DEVELOPER UNITS UNSOLD DEVELOPER UNITS
D RECENTLY DELIVERED P PRE-CONSTRUCTIONUNDER CONSTRUCTIONU
Key Biscayne & Coconut Grove - 92%Total new construction condo units available for sale since 2012
NEW
CON
STRUCTION
CON
DO
DEVELO
PMEN
T
17
2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
Arbor 83% SOLD 46 Total UnitsU
New Construction Condo Development Summary by SubmarketsTotal new construction condo units available for sale since 2012
Coconut Grove
Edgewater
Key Biscayne
Brickell
Miami Beach / South Beach
Surfside
Bal Harbour
Sunny Isles Beach
Hallandale Beach
Hollywood Beach
Fort Lauderdale
Design District
Midtown
Downtown Miami
BISCAYNE CORRIDOR
Wynwood
Aventura
Omni
BayHarborIslands
Miami River District
50% - 74% SOLD
Hallandale Beach ....................... 64%
Fort Lauderdale ......................... 74%
75% - 99% SOLD
Coconut Grove ........................... 90%
Brickell ....................................... 95%
Downtown Miami ...................... 76%
Biscayne Corridor ...................... 94%
Miami Beach/South Beach ........ 79%
North Miami Beach ................... 99%
Surfside ...................................... 92%
Bay Harbor Islands .................... 91%
Bal Harbour ............................... 80%
Sunny Isles Beach ...................... 86%
Aventura .................................... 92%
Hollywood Beach ...................... 89%
Key Biscayne ............................. 100%
100% SOLD
North Miami Beach
Photo by Muzammil Soorma
NEW
CON
STRUCTION
CON
DO
DEVELO
PMEN
T
19
2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
CURRENT CYCLE
18
15
20
10
5
Total macro* new construction groundbreakings by year for condos built since 2012 and east of I-95*(Brickell, Biscayne Corridor, Downtown Miami, South Beach, Miami Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands, Sunny Isles Beach, Hallandale Beach, Hollywood Beach,
Aventura, North Miami Beach, Coconut Grove, Key Biscayne and Fort Lauderdale). Condo developments with 20 units or less not included.
2000 OceanFour Seasons Private
Residences The Estates at
AcqualinaGlasshaus In the Grove 57 Ocean
Okan TowerUna ResidencesSmart Brickell Tower IIYotelPad Miami
The number of South Florida condominium groundbreakings has significantly tapered off from when this condo cycle peaked in 2014, indicating a winding down of the current cycle.
2012
15
2013
20
2014
23
2015
18
2016
14
2017
11
2018
4
2019*
5*
2020*
0*
TOTAL GROUNDBREAKINGS
* Projected
Condo Groundbreakings
Miami’s pre-construction development cycle timelineOver the past three decades, the typical high-rise condominium’s development cycle, from inception to delivery, was a two- to three-year process. Today, real estate developers are building 50- to 100-story luxury residential towers, which easily doubles the development and construction timeline to five or six years.
0
0.5 years
1 year
1.5 years
2 years
2.5 years
4 years
Pre-SaleRequirement Achieved/
Groundbreaking
Top Off
2023
2022
2021
2020
Completion
Pre-Sale
2024
2025+
3 years
3.5 years
4.5 years
5 years
NEW
CON
STRUCTION
CON
DO
DEVELO
PMEN
T
21
2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
NEW CYCLE INCEPTION*
DELIVERY*
Typical high-rise condominium development cycle
20
CURRENT CYCLE
* Projected
NEXT CYCLE (projected)
22
2019 MIAMI REPORT
Brickell City Centre
DEMAND
DEM
AND
23
ISGWORLD.COM
According to Knight Frank’s Wealth Report, Miami is expected to be the fastest-growing luxury real estate market in the U.S. and the fifth fastest-growing in the world in 2019.
Wealth Report
2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
DEM
AND
2524
Source: Knight Frank Wealth Report
MIAMI
fastest-growing luxury real estate market in
the world
#5fastest-growing luxury real estate market in
the U.S.
#1
Miami’s private jet industryis soaringAs the ultra-wealthy flee high-tax states and cold weather for South Florida, the market’s private jet industry is seeing major growth, with more and more flights taking off and landing in South Florida.
increase in private flightsin South Florida
35%
Miami ranked a top global city for its prime residential property
Highest earners in U.S. leaving New York, Chicago, Silicon Valley for Miami
Wealthy residents from high-tax states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Chicago and California are relocating to Miami and other parts of South Florida and purchasing ultra-luxury real estate. This group includes Wall Street hedge-fund managers, tech moguls, and other high earners looking to escape the effects of the tax reform law that was implemented last year by re-establishing their primary residence in Florida. This trend has resulted in record-setting real estate sales across the Miami area.
‘Tax refugees’ are dropping between
$10 million and$50 million on
ultra-luxuryMiami homes
Sources: Miami Herald & Privatefly
First-quarter luxury sales fromCoconut Grove - Fort Lauderdale Beach
Source: MLS Closed Sales
Single-Family, $5M+ Q1’17 Q1’18 Q1’19
Median Sales Price $10.9M $8.6M $12.4M
Volume $153.4M $103.8M $224.6M
Sales 14 12 18
Condos + Townhomes, $3M+ Q1’17 Q1’18 Q1’19
Median Sales Price $6.1M $6.3M $5.6M
Volume $225M $235.6M $254.7M
Sales 37 37 45
1. Madrid
2. Berlin
3. Paris
4. Cape Town
6. Monaco
7. Vancouver
8. Sydney
9. Los Angeles 10. Geneva
5. Miami
As the populations of the world, country and state of Florida continue to surge, a significant upward pressure is placed on the demand for goods, services and housing.
Population Growth
United States Population Growth
It will only take 33 yearsto add the next
73 Mil*
people in 1914
100 Mil
MIL
LIO
NS
100M
200M
326.8M
400M*
1800 1914 1967 2018 2051*
World Population Growth
BIL
LIO
NS
1.5B
3.5B
7.7B
9.8B*
1800 1914 1967 2018
It will only take 33 yearsto add the next
2.1 Bil*
people in 1914
1.5 Bil
2051*
Florida Population Growth
MIL
LIO
NS
18M20.6M 21.3M
28.9M*
1967 2006 2017 2018 2040*
*Projected Source: WorldPopulation.com & Statchat.com
6.6M
1998
MIDWEST
SOUTH
WEST
NORTHEAST
2018
MIDWESTWEST
NORTHEAST
2008
MIDWEST
NORTHEAST
WEST
Florida #2
nationally in population growth(2014-2018)
26
DEM
AND
27
2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
California .......... 1,381 per day
Texas .................... 884 per day
Florida ................. 823 per day
New York ............. 580 per day
New Jersey .......... 193 per day
Illinois .................. 150 per day
Connecticut ......... 130 per day
Massachusetts ..... 125 per day
Texas ................. 1,032 per day
Florida ................. 902 per day
California ............. 342 per day
New Jersey ............ 55 per day
Massachusetts ....... 14 per day
Connecticut ............ -3 per day
Illinois ................. -123 per day
New York ............ -132 per day
Texas ................. 1,200 per day
California ............. 994 per day
Florida ................. 473 per day
New York ............. 430 per day
Massachusetts ....... 82 per day
Illinois .................... 75 per day
Connecticut ........... 70 per day
New Jersey ............ 55 per day
Regional Population Migration
The U.S. is experiencing a domestic migration trend and population shift from states in the Northeast and Midwest to states in the South like Florida and Texas. According to U.S. Census data, Florida had the highest level of net domestic migration from 2017-2018.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau
SOUTH
SOUTH
Florida has consistently been one of the most desirable states in terms of weather and tax climate, maintaining a strong average daily population growth throughout the last couple of decades.
FLORIDA
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
NU
MB
ER
OF
PE
OP
LE
PE
R D
AY
2018
823
747789
818
911
862 827 869890
550
437
343
522
701645 671
803
1,002
1,063
900 902
Florida’s 20-year average daily population growth
781
28
DEM
AND
29
2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau
20 Years of Florida’sDaily Population Growth
Florida’s Daily Population GrowthOf the 902 people that Florida’s population grows byeach day, 45 percent of them are in Miami-Dade, Browardand Palm Beach counties.
25%Miami-Dade
55%rest of the state
12%Broward
(Fort Lauderdale)
8%Palm Beach
of Florida’s daily population growth occurs in South Florida
45%
Source: Demographics for the Bureau of Economics and Business
States with the largest daily population growth
TEXAS
1
1,032per day
28.7 Miltotal pop.
FLORIDA
2
902per day
21.3 Miltotal pop.
CALIFORNIA
3
342per day
39.5 Miltotal pop.
(2018)
Average daily population growth (last 20 years)
(1998 - 2018)
TEXAS FLORIDA CALIFORNIA
1,159per day
781per day
943per day
Projected average daily population growth (next 20 years)
(2019 - 2040)
TEXAS FLORIDA CALIFORNIA
1,409per day
946per day
690per day
30
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2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Source: Statchat.com
Florida vs. New York
FLORIDA NEW YORK
#2in population growth
Florida
NU
MB
ER
OF
PE
OP
LE P
ER
DA
Y
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
437
343
522
701645 671
803
1,063
900
1,002
#1 in population loss
New York
902
-132
people per day in Florida
people per day in New York
Photo by Blake Connally
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2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
New Yorkers seeking milder weather and lower taxes are increasingly drawn to states like Florida, driving New York into a daily population loss for the first time in history.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau
[Miami] is experiencing more activity than usual from buyers living in states like New York, New Jersey and Illinois.
Photo by Jonathan Riley
Daily Population Growth (Florida vs. New York)
34
MLS/RESALE MARKET & RENTAL TRENDS
Downtown Miami Photo by Frank Charles
ISGWORLD.COM
MLS/RESALE M
ARKET & REN
TAL TREND
S
35
2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
Condo MLS/Resale Market SnapshotTotal new construction condo units delivered in Brickell, Biscayne Corridor (Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown, Design District, Omni), Downtown Miami,
The Beaches (South Beach, Miami Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands, Sunny Isles Beach, Hallandale Beach, Hollywood Beach), Aventura,
North Miami Beach, Coconut Grove and Key Biscayne since 2012
Miami-Dade & Broward Residential SnapshotSingle-Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos and Rental Units available on the MLS
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
Total housing inventory: 1,024,211
Total Active Single-Family Homes ................... 6,932 0.68%
Total Active Condos / Townhomes ............... 16,067 1.57%
Total Active Rentals ........................................ 10,865 1.06%
TOTAL ACTIVE LISTINGS .............................33,864 3.31%
LOW INVENTORY
ONLY 3.31%of total housing units are available for sale or rent
in Miami-Dade County
3.31%96.69%(unavailable)
BROWARD COUNTY
Total housing inventory: 823,602
Total Active Single-Family Homes ................... 5.925 0.72%
Total Active Condos / Townhomes ................. 8,098 0.98%
Total Active Rentals .......................................... 4,890 0.59%
TOTAL ACTIVE LISTINGS .............................18,913 2.30%
LOW INVENTORY
ONLY 2.30%of total housing units are available for sale or rent
in Broward County
2.30%97.70%(unavailable)
* Under construction/pre-construction projects not included, only those with certificate of occupancy.
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2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
Brickell
Total Units Delivered(2012-2019)
Total Active MLS Listings**
% Active
Downtown Miami/Biscayne Corridor
The Beaches
Aventura/North Miami Beach
Coconut Grove/Key Biscayne
Fort Lauderdale
4,974
4,588
2,575
1,442
544
931
783
690
444
261
83
107
15.74%
15.03%
17.24%
18.10%
15.26%
11.49%
Totals 15,054* 2,368 15.73%
MLS/RESALE M
ARKET & REN
TAL TREND
S
37
Total Units Delivered(2012-2019)
15,054*
Total Active MLS Listings
2,368% Active
15.73%
ISGWORLD.COM
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau & MLS Source: MLS
What is Total Housing Units?
Total single-family homes, townhomes, condos and apartments for sale or rent that have been delivered in Miami-Dade and Broward County
Real Estate Rule of Thumb
5% of inventory on the market or below = a seller's market. 10% of inventory on the market or above = a buyer's market.
** Total active MLS listings as of May 2019
MLS/RESALE M
ARKET & REN
TAL TREND
S
39
Unsold Developer Inventory vs. MLS/Resale Absorption Analysis
TOTAL UNSOLD DEVELOPER INVENTORY TOTAL MLS RESALE’S SOLD
38
2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
*Projected Source: MLS
Dec 2016
5,195
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Dec 2017 Dec 2018 Dec 2019*
3,860
2,498
1,238*
88259
455 638*
0*
1,000+*
MLS reported a 75% increase in resale transactions in 2018 for
condos built since 2012
DEVELOPER INVENTORY DECLINING
TOTAL MLS/RESALES SOLD INCREASING
Dec 2021*
- Developer inventory SOLD OUT*
Total MLS/Resales sold
As developer inventory continues to decline,
MLS/Resale transactions continue to increase.
Total new construction condo units delivered in Brickell, Biscayne Corridor (Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown, Design District, Omni), Downtown Miami,
The Beaches (South Beach, Miami Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands, Sunny Isles Beach, Hallandale Beach, Hollywood Beach), Aventura,
North Miami Beach, Coconut Grove and Key Biscayne since 2012
Condo MLS/Rental Market Snapshot
Total Units Delivered(2012-2019)
15,054*
Total Active Units Available for Rent
882Average MLS Rental Absorption
(based on 2018 average absorption of 230 units per month)
4 months*Under construction/pre-construction/multi-family projects not included.
40
MLS/RESALE M
ARKET & REN
TAL TREND
S
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2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
Brickell
Downtown Miami/Biscayne Corridor
The Beaches
Aventura/North Miami Beach
Coconut Grove/Key Biscayne
Fort Lauderdale
Totals
Total Units Delivered(2012-2019)
4,974
4,588
2,575
1,442
544
931
15,054*
Total Activefor Rent*
234
370
117
104
34
23
882
Asking$/PSF
$3.32
$2.88
$5.02
$2.60
$4.67
$4.45
$3.82
Rented 2017$/PSF
$2.76
$2.61
$4.02
$2.20
$4.50
$3.23
$3.22
Rented 2018$/PSF
$3.19
$2.63
$4.33
$2.40
$4.61
$3.49
$3.44
Source: MLS
* Total active MLS listings as of May 2019
Total new construction condo units delivered in Brickell, Biscayne Corridor (Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown, Design District, Omni), Downtown Miami,
The Beaches (South Beach, Miami Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands, Sunny Isles Beach, Hallandale Beach, Hollywood Beach), Aventura,
North Miami Beach, Coconut Grove and Key Biscayne since 2012
42
COM
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2019 MIAMI REPORT
Brickell City Centre Photo by Janis Laubergs
COMMERCIALSNAPSHOT
ISGWORLD.COM
RetailMiami boasts some of the most desirable retail
property in the world. Vacancies are below 4 percent
overall, while new neighborhoods for development
are constantly on the rise.
(2013-2018)
Under 4%Miami-Dade retail vacancy rates
* Projected Source: CBRE Research - Q4 2018
$40
$35
$30
$25
5%
4%
3%
2%
Miami-Dade retail asking rates and total market availability rate
2013 2014 2015 20172016 2018
Availability Rate($PSF)
Vacancy Rate (%)
$36.59
3.2%
VACANCY RATEASKING RENT
2019* 2020*
Largest mall in the U.S. is coming to MiamiSpanning 6 million square feet, the $4 billion American Dream Miami will be a retail and entertainment complex about twice the size of the
nation’s current largest mall, the King of Prussia Mall in Pennsylvania.
retail and entertainment complex
$4 Bilsquare feet6 Mil
OfficeAs Miami’s job market grows, so does the value of its office space. Price per square foot,
absorptions and completions are all up. One look at the burgeoning downtown area
tells you all you need to know about this thriving sector.
Vacancy levels dropped
at a record pace to 3.7%
Source: CBRE Research - Q4 2018
$50
$45
$40
$35
$30
$25
$20
Asking lease rate ($)
Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2016Q4 2015 Q4 2017
$36.10
$27.18
CLASS BCLASS A
Q4 2018
Terminal
Lease rate (PPSF) $45.60
Net Absorption 76,000 SF
Completions 214,000 SF
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Overall Vacancy
2014 2015 2016 20182017
5-YEAR HISTORICAL AVERAGE = 5.4%
Miami’s strong economy and job growth suggest another strong
year for the industrial market in 2019. Similar to 2018, heavy
demand for warehouse/distribution space and continued trade
will support the market, keeping vacancy rates low.
Industrial
(2018)
15%Miami-Dade retail rents
$45.60
$33.89
3.7%Source: Cushman and Wakefield - Q4 2018 update
Source: Business Insider - May 2018
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Bric
kell
City
Cen
tre
American Dream Miami
INTERN
ATION
AL
4746
INTERNATIONAL
2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
Miami Beach Photo by Raphaël Biscaldi
2019 MIAMI REPORT
48
Mexico
INTERN
ATION
AL
49
The growing population and desire from international buyers,specifically from Latin America, have always fueled the Miami real estate market. The high U.S. dollar and political uncertainty in several Latin American countries over the last real estate cycle have had an impact on the South Florida condominium market. Below is an update on some of the most active markets for Miami currently.
International Markets
Mexico’s current leftist government has created a sense of cautiousness among high-net-worth individuals. We are currently seeing an increase in Mexicans seeking to purchase high-end condos and make other real estate investments in Miami as a “plan B,” should their political situation change for the worse. Wealthy Mexicans have always viewed Miami as a safe haven, and are attracted to the social and financial security it offers.
Population: 123 MilPresident: Andrés Manuel López Obrador
ColombiaOver the past few years, Colombia has remained a fairly steady
market, with stable political and social conditions, even more so since Iván Duque Márquez became President. We see constant
activity from Colombians buying real estate in Miami, both as investments to diversify their portfolio with, and as second
homes, primarily in high-end condo buildings.
Population: 49.9 Mil President: Iván Duque Márquez
Miami
in U.S. foreign buyer sales (2018)
#1Florida
ArgentinaArgentina is currently facing political, social and economic challenges. The depreciation of the peso since Mauricio Macri assumed office in 2015 has caused negative sentiment around his presidency. With elections this October, there is some suggestion that former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner could be re-elected, which could cause further economic and social unrest for the country, prompting more Argentinians to invest in Miami real estate.
Population: 44.7 MilPresident: Mauricio Macri
BrazilBrazil is exiting one of the worst recessions in its history. Last year, a new right-wing government won the election and is creating a new image for the country in an effort to generate economic confidence. High-net-worth Brazilians are coming to Miami to buy real estate because they remain uncertain about the future of their economy and enjoy the security of the U.S. A policy shift to reform the country’s pension system is crucial to Brazil’s economic growth and could result in more interest in Miami real estate.
Population: 208.5 MilPresident: Jair Bolsonaro
Contributed by Sergio Pintos
ISGWORLD.COM
Source: National Association of Realtors
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TRANSPORTATION
2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
Miami Photo by Eduardo Velazco Guart
“Brightline is at the forefront of innovation
in this market, and the ideal partner for Virgin
to work with to alter perceptions and traveling habits
across the United States.”
RICHARD BRANSONFounder, Virgin Group
2019 MIAMI REPORT
Next stop: OrlandoBrightline/Virgin Trains’ planned future expansion includes Orlando, with a station to be located at Orlando International Airport. Virgin has filed plans and secured funding of $1.75 billion for its expansion to Orlando, and has proposed to extend their train service to Orlando’s theme park area, as well as Tampa.
Connecting MiamiInterstate 395, which connects Miami Beach to downtown Miami, is currently undergoing an $800 million restructuring. The project includes a design-focused statement bridge, as well as plans to add 30 acres of urban parkland and revitalize parts of the historic community of Overtown.
Florida’s intercity rail service, formerly Brightline, is rebranding itself as Virgin Trains. Thanks to a new partnership with Richard Branson’s Virgin Group, the train system will utilize the international company’s brand recognition to help promote its services, while Virgin makes a footprint in one of the U.S.’s hottest markets.
By Land
Expected launch of Orlando to Tampa service
2021
TRANSPO
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53
ISGWORLD.COM
Virgin Trains
$800 Mil Interstate 395 Redesign
Current Station & Route
Future Station & Route
Fort Lauderdale
Miami
West Palm Beach
Orlando
TampaTheme Park
Area
Source: The Next Miami
52
Photos courtesy of Brightline
PortMiami, the busiest cruise port in the world, once again won Porthole Cruise Magazine’s Editor-in-Chief Award for Best U.S. Port in recognition for its customer service, quality operations and all around excellence.
PortMiami
Carlos Gimenez, Miami-Dade County Mayor
Cruise capital of the worldAnyone who drives over the I-395 causeway is familiar with the impressive line of ships coming in and out of PortMiami. Its cruise terminals are among the most modern in the world, hosting 22 cruise lines and 55 ships, and setting the bar in passenger service.
Economic impact
$43 Mil
Leading cruise port in North America
#1
Source: Miami Dade County, PortMiami, Sun-Sentinel, Cruise & Ferry, Travel Weekly year-long cruise lines
5Soon to be the only port with
in new development$500 Mil+
Record-breaking
Cruise LinesPort Everglades: 11 • Port Canaveral: 4
22passengers in one day
(short 66 people for world record)
55,819Record-breaking
Minimal construction cost
$300 Mil
Sq. ft. corporate campus
350,000
Photo by Linval Ebanks
PortMiami welcomes Virgin VoyagesVirgin Group’s bold, new cruise line, Virgin Voyages, is now in business. Its first ship, Scarlet Lady, will set sail from Virgin’s new PortMiami terminal in April 2020. From no buffets on board,
to free Wifi and a focus on environmental protection, Virgin Voyages will offer a cruising experience that is quite different from that of traditional cruise lines.
Terminals on the riseOn the heels of the completion of Royal Caribbean’s “Crown of Miami,” comes Norwegian Cruise Line’s “Pearl” of Miami. Slated for completion by fall 2019, the new terminal will welcome the Norwegian Encore, the newest ship in the cruise line’s Breakaway Plus class. PortMiami’s other major cruise lines also have big plans in the works for their terminals.
Royal Caribbean’s “Crown of Miami” cruise terminal, the largest in the U.S., is now open
Norwegian Cruise Line
Disney Cruise Line
MSC Cruises
Virgin Voyages
NEW TERMINALS TO COME FOR:
New $300 million Royal Caribbean HQ coming to PortMiamiRoyal Caribbean is expanding its main headquarters at PortMiami. The new, ten-story, 350,000-square-foot complex breaks ground this year and is expected to be completed by the end of 2020.
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2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
Source: World Travel Awards
Source: Cruise Ferry
Source: The Next Miami Source: South Florida Business Journal
in flights to Latin Americaand the Caribbean
#1Atlanta .......................................... 988Chicago ........................................ 701Dallas ............................................ 592Houston ........................................ 521Los Angeles .................................. 817New Jersey ................................... 411New York .................................... 2101San Francisco ................................ 309Washington .................................. 790
DOMESTIC
Ecuador .......................................... 48Peru ................................................ 42Colombia ........................................ 93Venezuela ....................................... 69Guyana ............................................. 2Suriname .......................................... 5Brazil ............................................. 121Paraguay ........................................... 4Bolivia ............................................... 9Chile ............................................... 31Argentina ........................................ 47Uruguay ............................................ 9
SOUTH AMERICA
Denmark ........................................... 4Turkey ............................................... 7London ............................................. 5Russia ................................................ 7Israel ................................................. 3Switzerland ....................................... 3
EUROPE & MIDDLE EAST
Lufthansa first to offer facial recognition departures from MIA
Passengers departing from Miami International Airport to Munich on Lufthansa flight 461 can now board with the quick click of a camera instead of a boarding pass and passport, thanks to the airport’s launch of biometric exit technology.
Photo by Brandi Ibrao
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Busiest airports
#1 New York (1,613)
#2 California (1,611)
#3 Florida (1,555)
#4 Texas (1,476)
#5 Illinois (1,376)
TOTAL DEPARTURES PER DAY BY STATE
Miami International Airport Direct Weekly FlightsA sampling
Both Miami International Airport and Fort Lauderdale- Hollywood International Airport are among the busiest in the U.S. in terms of international passengers and flight options. Each year, they continue to grow their airline offerings and departures, and serve as top economic engines for Miami-Dade and Broward counties, as well as the state of Florida.
By Air
80 Mil PassengersMiami International Airport &
Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport
$62 Bil in economic impact for Miami-Dade and Broward Counties
Source: Miami International Airport & Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport
Source: Flightfrom.com
Source: Miami International Airport
Photo by chuttersnap
of Colombia’s total population
160%of Argentina’s total
population
180%To put it in perspective:
Source: Miami International Airport
2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
CULTURAL &ECONOMIC GROWTH
Institute of Contemporary Art Photo by Juno Jo
58
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Referred to as “The Gateway to the Americas,” Miami has long been a crucial market for companies seeking an international foothold, especially within Latin America. Global corporations are drawn to the city’s low taxes,
connectivity, multi-cultural population and desirable quality of life. From flourishing startups and Fortune 500 businesses, to the thriving tech scene, South Florida’s also become a magnet for talented professionals.
EconomicLandscape
largest in the U.S.
4thFlorida’s economy is the
best taxpayer ROI
#3Florida
business climate index
#4Florida
Florida’s economy tops $1 trillionUS WORLD NEWS
U.S. Ranking World Ranking
California 1 5
Texas 2 10
New York 3 12
Florida 4 17
New opportunity zone program for investorsStudies of the new federal Opportunity Zone Program are naming South Florida one of the most desirable destinations for these types of investments. Because Miami boasts a growing population, no state tax and a strong real estate market, investors can take advantage of delaying capital gains taxes by investing in economically distressed communities.
Sources: bisnow, floridajobs.org
Tax comparisons: metropolitan areas
PersonalIncome Tax %
CorporateIncome Tax % Sales Tax %
Florida’s Tax Advantages
Brickell
City State Local State Local State Local
Miami 0.00 0.00 5.50 0.00 6.00 1.00
New York 4.0-8.9 2.9-3.6 7.10 8.85 4.00 4.50
Los Angeles 1.0-9.55 0.00 8.84 0.00 8.25 1.50
Chicago 5.00 0.00 9.50 0.00 6.25 3.00
Houston 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 6.25 2.00
“Florida’s
economy is
thriving,
expanding at a
record pace.”
Local Personal Income Tax 0%
State PersonalIncome Tax 0%
State Corporate Income Tax 5.5%“The program could
become the most impactful federal incentive for equity
capital investment in low-income and distressed
communities ever.”
Source: Tax Foundation 2019 State Business Tax Climate Index
Florida markets lead U.S. for economic momentumFlorida’s economy is booming and has become the 17th
largest economy in the world. Cushman & Wakefield evaluated markets around the country across a range of factors indicative of economic momentum. Of the 10 cities with the most economic momentum, five are in Florida. From growing populations that support strong economic and commercial real estate fundamentals, to the lack of state income taxes in the state, the dynamics in these markets create a more favorable environment for development and investment.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
ECONOMIC MOMENTUM INDEX
Orlando
West Palm Beach
Tampa
Dallas
Austin
Houston
San Jose
Ft. Lauderdale
Salt Lake City
Miami
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
136
122
138
137
126
123
120
120
150
157
Sources: South Florida Business Journal, Tax Foundation 2019 State Business Tax Climate Index, WalletHub
LARGEST U.S. ECONOMIES BY STATE
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ISGWORLD.COM
W Residences Fort Lauderdale
The traditional branded concept is a hotel-led development with integrated or linked residences. They naturally benefit from the hotel brand (quality), management
(smooth running) and services (luxury). In essence, this gives the owner the comfort and performance of a home but with the full benefits and luxury of a five-star hotel.
Real Estate Trend:
Branded Residences
What defines a branded residence?
The Value of Branded Residences
Sampling of South Florida’s branded residences
PRIME LOCATIONSLocated in major, world-class cities as well as luxurious beach and resort locales, branded residences are found in the most desirable destinations in the world.
HASSLE-FREE OWNERSHIPOwners of branded residences enjoy peace of mind that their property will be safe and maintained in their absence, as well as rental flexibility and the option to rent their property through the development’s hotel rental program.
PROFESSIONAL, TRUSTWORTHY & CREDIBLE MANAGEMENTBuyers can expect certain management standards from these prestigious and reliable brands, as well as an assurance of quality and consistent re-investment in and maintenance of the property and brand.
SUPERIOR SERVICES & AMENITIESReputable, respected and desired brands consistently deliver 5-star service and quality amenities to all residents.
OWNER BENEFITS
A branded residence typically comes with owner-specific perks including exclusive access or discounts to property amenities, restaurants and other properties that the brand operates.
STRONGER RESALE VALUESBranded residences tend to sell at higher prices than non-branded properties as their limited availability and exclusivity help maintain property values.
BY THE NUMBERS
properties in South Florida
40+
properties globally
400
branded units globally by 2023
69,000Source: Knight Frank Branded Residence Report
“Buy into a reputable brand and you have the assurance in the delivery and quality of the development as well
as professional management.”
Auberge Beach Residences & Spa Fort Lauderdale
The Ritz-Carlton Bal Harbour
CHRIS GRAHAMGraham Associates
2019 MIAMI REPORT
Rapid job growth in Miami’s tech sector
has made the city one of the most
attractive for technology professionals.
According to a recent report from
RentCafe, from 2014 – 2017, the Miami
metro area had the fifth-fastest rate of
tech job growth in the U.S., higher than
that of San Francisco, and growing by
more than 20 percent.
(projected to grow an additional 11% by 2023)
40%
in the U.S. for startups
Miami #1
Tech job growth
Miami becoming a true “startup city”
For the last two years, the Kauffman Foundation, a
nonprofit focused on entrepreneurship, has ranked
Miami #1 in the U.S. for startups. Corporations from
all over the world, from Goldman Sachs to Endeavor
to Cambridge Innovation Center, are investing in
Miami’s burgeoning startup scene.
investment in co-working spaces, accelerators and events such as eMerge Americas since 2012
$25 Mil+
Source: miamiherald.com
Source: miamiherald.com
TheVentureCity brings Google Launchpad to MiamiMiami-based tech startup accelerator and
consultancy TheVentureCity partnered with
Google Launchpad, a global acceleration
program created by Google for developers,
to bring the tech-focused workshop to Miami,
making it the first city to host the program
in the U.S. outside of Silicon Valley. The
intensive program aims to boost the growth
of startups in flourishing tech markets, which
further positions Miami as an international
startup launcher.
Source: prnewswire.com
Courtesy of Magic Leap
64
2019 MIAMI REPORT
invested in South Floridastartups
$1.38 Bil2018 SOUTH FLORIDA TECH MARKET
startup deals128
in the nation in venture activity & investments by dollar volume
11thRanked
Top venture capital-funded South Florida companies
“We believe that Miami is on the cusp of something transformative - and we know the data and trends back it up.”
FELICE GORORDOCEO of eMerge Americas
2018 sampling
CULTURAL & ECO
NO
MIC G
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Source: eMerge Insights Report
ATransformative Tech Scene
ISGWORLD.COM
Miami’s tourism industry is extremely
robust, attracting a record 16.5 million
overnight visitors in 2018, up 3.5% from
2017. While Miami Beach remains home
to some of the area’s top hotels, the
region’s tourism boom has spread well
beyond the beaches. According to the
Miami Downtown Development Authority,
growth in tourism in downtown Miami
has led to a boom in hotel construction,
with nearly 4,000 new hotel rooms in the
development pipeline.
Hospitality
Top 10 hotel markets in the U.S.
1. New York
2. Oahu Island
3. San Francisco
4. Miami
5. Boston
6. Los Angeles
7. San Diego
8. Anaheim
9. Seattle
10. Washington, D.C.Source: STR
“Miami – a vibrant, dynamic and truly cosmopolitan destination that draws travelers from all over the world – is the perfect market for our Waldorf Astoria brand.”
Danny Hughes President for the Americas, Hilton
Miami is getting its first Waldorf Astoria Hotel and Residences — and it will change
the city’s skyline
1,049 Feet Tall 200 Hotel Rooms* 400 Condos*
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total number of visitors
23.3 Mil
economic impact
$18 Bil
2018
• Latin America and New York City were key feeder markets in 2018, contributing significantly to the total overnight visitors.
• The top three countries of origin for overnight international visitors into Greater Miami were Brazil,
Colombia and Argentina.
HIGHLIGHTS
W Fort Lauderdale
Waldorf Astoria Hotel & Residences MiamiImage by ARX SolutionsCourtesy Property Markets Group
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Source: South Florida Business Journal*ProposedSource: GMCVB 2018 Visitor Industry Overview
ISGWORLD.COM
Miami loves art and art loves Miami. A recent study by Americans for the Arts, the nation’s leading nonprofit organization for advancing the arts and arts education, found that Miami-Dade’s arts and cultural
sector generates a whopping $1.43 billion in economic activity annually. Additionally, attendance at Miami-Dade’s cultural events continues to grow, representing over 16 million global attendees annually.
Arts & Culture
Arts and cultural economic impact
$1.43 Bil
annual visitors to Miami-Dade cultural events and venues
16 Mil+
Local and state revenue
$158 Mil
Knight Foundation invests an additional $37 million in Miami artsThis latest investment of $37 million brings the total arts funding that the Foundation has contributed to the city since 2005 to $165 million, which supports the growth of Miami as a force for arts and culture. The new funding will be invested in:
• Fostering the work of anchor institutions
• Promoting the creation of cutting-edge art in Miami
• Advancing training and learning opportunities
• Knight Arts open calls for ideas
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CONTINUING SUPPORT OF THE MIAMI ART SCENE
Nonprofit ArtCenter/South Florida has accumulated $100 million, more than any other South Florida visual arts organization, to help grow Miami’s art infrastructure and provide career support for emerging artists. In a move from South Beach to Little Haiti, the ArtCenter will build a new $30 million facility scheduled to break ground in Fall 2020 with a planned opening in Spring 2022.
A new $30 million, 40,000-square-foot art center will include:
• 22 studios for resident artists
• 2,500-square-foot exhibition space
• 120-seat theater
• Classrooms and work spaces
ART SPOTLIGHT
To commemorate the 35th anniversary of Surrounded Islands, Christo and Jeanne-Claude’s renowned 1983 installation, Pérez Art Museum Miami presented a special documentary exhibition from October 2018 – February 2019. Surrounded Islands made alasting impact on the city’s cultural history, marking the birth of Miami’s international artistic profile while anticipating its rise as a hub for contemporary art.
Miami-Dade County is in the top ranks of comparable American cities with New York, Chicago and
Philadelphia in the arts.
Adolfo HenriquesChairman of the Miami-Dade Cultural Affairs Council
Phot
o by
Geo
rge
Paga
n III
/ W
ynw
ood
Arts
Dist
rict
2019 MIAMI REPORT
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Source: KnightFoundation.org
Photo by Ruben Ramirez
Source: The New York Times
Source: PAMM.org
Source: Miami-Dade County Department of Cultural Affairs
Art Center/South FloridaMiami art scene’s new $100 million player
Already a sports haven and home to four major professional teams, including the Miami Dolphins, Miami Heat, Miami Marlins, and Florida Panthers, Miami is now home to the future Major League Soccer team Inter Miami CF, who’s ownership group is led byDavid Beckham. The team is slated to begin play in 2020 in a new training facility and stadium in Fort Lauderdale before relocating to its permanent home in Miami.
Sports David Beckham’s MLS teamunveils name and crest
“Our mission to bring an MLS club to Miami is now complete and we are deeply satisfied, grateful and excited.”
Miami will host the Super Bowl in 2020, which will celebrate the NFL’s 100th centennial season. While the big game will be played at Hard Rock Stadium, downtown Miami will be transformed into the Super Bowl Live fan village.Bayfront Park and Museum Park will become “Super Bowl Park,” hosting a full week of events including concerts, large-screen broadcasts and numerous activations.
Super Bowl LIVSouth Florida hosts record-breaking 11th Super Bowl
NFL celebrating
100th SeasonSouth Florida
# 1in number of Super Bowlshosted
Estimated
$500 Milin economic impact
2020Inaugural season
begins
David BeckhamInter Miami team owner and president of football operations
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Source: Sun Sentinel
“I think Miami continues to grow, and get more
diverse and dynamic. In a lot of ways, I think Miami is
a curator for culture for the rest of the country, and in
some ways for the rest of the world.”
Tom GarfinkelPresident and CEO of the Miami Dolphins and
Hard Rock Stadium
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Year after year, Miami continues to top itself in terms of the quality and quantity of its educational offerings. The private schools are top-notch, the magnet schools have been ranked among the best in the U.S. and Florida International University, the city’s public research university, is breaking records for growth and performance.
EducationMiami-Dade County Public Schools is now home to 21 certified magnet schools, more than any other district in the U.S. Seven of those schools have earned the bonus “Demonstration” designation for exceeding the criteria outlined in the Magnet Schools of America (MSA) Standards of Excellence.
Miami tops country in certified national magnet schools
Southside ElementaryK-8 expansion to be completed
by 2021
Mater Brickell Preparatory AcademyNew facility to be completed
by 2021
Avenues: The World SchoolManhattan-based private academy
to open Miami location in 2022
New Schools Coming to Miami’s Urban Core
in U.S. for total number of magnet schools
#1Florida ranked
#1 Florida 581
#2 California 529
#3 Texas 260
MAGNET SCHOOLS BY STATE
New performance scores from the Florida Board of Governors of the state’s public universities ranked Florida International University (FIU) second in the state, just behind the University of Florida (UF) in Gainesville. FIU’s increase in these key performance measures resulted in additional funding for the school.
FIU second behind UF in new performance score
An influx of wealthy out-of-state buyers seeking to avoid the effects of the recent tax reform is creating huge waiting lists at Miami’s most elite private schools. The schools are
seeing a big increase in applications from families from New York, New Jersey, Chicago, Boston and California.
As the wealthy flock to Miami, private schools report massive waiting lists
U.S. News & Worldreport recently ranked Florida the #1 state for higher education for the second year in a row.
Miami schools say they are seeing a sharp uptick in demand as a result:
• Palmer Trinity School says the number of families from
New York and New Jersey have doubled in the past year.
• Miami Country Day School has seen an uptick in applicants
from New York, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles and Houston.
• Gulliver Schools has seen a lot of interest from families
moving to Miami both from high-tax states and
around the world.
• Ransom Everglades School’s waiting lists are always full.
Source: South Florida Business Journal
Source: Business Insider
Source: Miami-Dade County Public Schools / Florida Department of Education
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2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
With its booming population, surge of new condominiums and hotels and some of the hottest new bars and restaurants, the Brickell neighborhood has become one of the fastest-growing destinations in the country. A magnet for both business and tourism, this highly accessible and thriving district offers a true “live, work, play” lifestyle.
ISG City Watch: Brickell
WHY BRICKELL?
of Greater Downtown Miami’s population resides there
45%
visitors go to Brickell every year
15 Mil
concentration of international banks in the U.S. & second-largest financial hub outside
of New York’s City’s financial district
#1
New ConstructionBeyond mixed-use development Brickell City Centre, the neighborhood’s $1.05 billion anchor including two condo towers - Reach & Rise, office buildings, the EAST, Miami hotel and 500,000 square feet of retail, other major new developments to the area include Echo Brickell, SLS Lux and Brickell Flatiron.
Creative Culture
Phillip and Patricia Frost Museum of Science
Pubbelly Sushi
ConnectivityGet everywhere you need to go in Miami with Brickell’s easy access to public transportation
including the Metromover, Miami Trolley and Virgin Trains, as well as a variety of ridesharing options.
Delicious eatsFrom top-rated Italian, Asian and Latin cuisines, to some of thebest sushi in the city, Brickell offers an extensive list of trendy and tasty restaurants including Casa Tua Cucina, NAOE and Quinto La Huella.
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Wellness LifestyleStaying fit and active is a breeze in Brickell. Take a jog around beautiful Brickell Key, or enjoy a yoga class in downtown’s Bayfront Park.
Brickell City Centre
Baywalk
Metromover
Source: Forbes
Just north of Brickell, residents and visitors can enjoy the city’s best cultural destinations, from premier performance and entertainment venues like the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts, to world-class art and science museums like Pérez Art Museum Miami.
Greater Downtown Miami is rapidly
evolving into a world-class neighborhood.
A wave of transformational new
developments is coming, adding to
its accessibility, pedestrian-friendliness,
retail and tourism offerings, and
changing the landscape of Miami forever.
The 1,000-foot observation tower and entertainment center is a revolutionary structure that will capture Miami’s energy and exhilaration.
The Biscayne Green project will convert sections of Biscayne Boulevard into a grand promenade with sitting areas, green spaces, and “activations” including art exhibits and activities.
The $802 million project will completely reconstruct the existing interstate, create a
signature bridge that will span 1,025 feet and transform the area beneath I-395 into 55 acres of open communal green space.
The $2.7 billion mixed-use development is the biggest in the U.S. after New York’s
Hudson Yards and will include 450,000 square feet of retail and a condo tower
complete with a flying cars SkyPort.
The 10-mile linear park, urban trail and living art destination will connect communities, improve pedestrian and
bicyclist safety and create over 120 acres of open space.
Museum Park
PortMiami
AmericanAirlines Arena
Bayside
Pérez Art Museum Miami
Phillip and Patricia Frost Museum
of Science
Freedom Tower
Brickell City Centre
Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts
Landscape of the Future
The UnderlineMiami WorldcenterI-395 Signature BridgeBiscayne GreenSkyRise Miami
Bayfront Park
Baywalk
Virgin Trains USA
Metromover
Metrorail
Source: Miami Downtown Development Authority, Florida Department of Transportation, Miamiworldcenter.com, Miami Today News, Bisnow
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Status: Under construction Status: Planning phase Status: Under construction Status: Under constructionStatus: Under construction
2019 MIAMI REPORT ISGWORLD.COM
On the GroundExpert Insights on the South Florida Real Estate Landscape
Alex VidalPresidentRelatedISG International Realty
Q: The Miami Report is highlighting shockingly low levels of developer condo inventory in South Florida. Are you seeing any similarities in the MLS/resale market for single-family homes?
A: In Miami-Dade and Broward counties, there are approximately 13,000 active single-family homes available for sale. This may sound like a large number, but it’s actually less than 1% of total housing units in these markets. MLS has reported that Miami-Dade and Broward have sold close to 32,000 homes per year over the last 3 years, largely driven by our surging population growth. Therefore, the 13,000 active single-family homes represent only five months of supply. So, yes, single-family home resale inventory is following the same trend as the low developer condo supply.
Q: What are you seeing in terms of condominium resales on the MLS?
A: There are currently 21,000 condos active on the MLS between Miami-Dade and Broward counties. MLS has reported annual resales of condos equaling 24,800 per year over the last 3 years. That means there is approximately one year of condo inventory on the market.
Condo resale inventory is following a similar trend as that of single-family homes, for the same basic reasons. In fact, we expect condo resale velocity to accelerate as developer inventory continues to shrink.
Q: What impact has the 2017 change to the federal tax law had on the general real estate market in South Florida?
A: We’ve seen an immediate impact on the ultra- luxury market as a result of this recent change to the tax law. As an example, for single-family homes above $5 million, total sales volume jumped from $103.8 million in Q1 2018 to $224.6 million in Q1 2019. For condos above $3 million, total sales volume increased from $235.6 million in Q1 2018 to $254.7 million in Q1 2019.
Most of this activity is fueled by tax refugees from high-tax states like New York, New Jersey, Illinois and California.
Q: At the moment, what are the most active neighborhoods for resales for both single-family homes and condos?
A: When it comes to resales of single-family homes, the most active submarkets are currently Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines and Miramar. For condo resales, the most active submarkets are Fort Lauderdale, Miami Beach and Brickell.
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2019 MIAMI REPORT
For over 26 years, ISG World® has been honored and privileged to work with some of the
most respected and talented professionals in the real estate industry, from developers,
architects, engineers and designers, to brokers, vendors and of course, our dedicated employees.
To engage ISG today is to harness the talent, network and creativity that provides our clients
the competitive edge necessary to succeed in the South Florida marketplace.
International Sales Group, LLC • 2875 Northeast 191st Street • 2nd Floor • Aventura, FL 33180
305.931.6511 • isgworld.com
+$10 Billion in sales
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HEADQUARTERSInternational Sales Group, LLC2875 Northeast 191st Street • 2nd Floor
Aventura, FL 33180
305.931.6511 | isgworld.com