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2018 Crop Overview
2018/2019 Pecan Market
❖Current supply
❖Short-term market impactors
❖Long-term market impactors
❖Industry initiatives
Product availablefor sale by US
2017 2018 (Est.)
Prior Year Carry-Out 155,128,580 180,259,589
US Crop 293,850,000 278,900,000
Mexican Imports to US 253,296,635 276,826,697*
Total Supply 702,275,215 735,986,286
Carry-Out 187,731,000 250,968,690*
Consumption 514,544,215* 485,017,596**NOTE: NFF Estimates
Note: Figures are expressed in pounds, inshell basis, and do not take into account US Inshell sent to Mexico for shelling. Carry-in meats are converted assuming a 44% yield. Mexican import meats are converted assuming a 50% yield. Data Sources: USDA NASS & FAS, USDA Market News & Nature’s Finest Foods
US Pecan Exports
Source: Foreign Ag Service
0.00
50,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
Poun
ds (In
sh
ell B
asis
)
Crop Year
Total Exports
US Consumption vs Total Exports
Source: Foreign Ag Service & Nature’s Finest Foods
Crop Year
Po
un
ds
(In
sh
ell
Ba
sis
)
0.00
50,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
350,000,000.00
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20082009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018(est)
US Consumption Total Exports
World Supply - Inshell Pounds
Country 2017 2018 (est.)
United States 293,850,000 278,900,000
Mexico 322,245,875 358,245,446
South Africa 36,375,900 40,123,720
Australia 7,716,100 4,409,200
US Carry-In 155,128,580 180,259,589
WORLD TOTAL 815,316,455 861,937,955
Source: USDA NASS, Stahman Farms-Australia, Golden Peanut & Tree Nut–SA, Bester-SA, Mtebeni Valley Farms, SA, Agricultural Information Service - Mexico, Nature’s Finest Foods, Ltd.
Mexican Supply DataInshell Pounds (Metric Tons)
Organization 2015 2016 2017 2018
Comenuez 122,714 142,140 114,750 141,720
Agricultural Information Service
122,714 140,712 146,170 162,499
World Pecan SupplyP
ou
nd
s (
Ins
he
ll B
as
is)
Crop YearSource: USDA NASS, Stahman Farms -Australia, Golden Peanut & Tree Nut – SA, Bester, SA, Mtebeni Valley Farms, SA, Agricultural Information Service - Mexico
0.00
100,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
400,000,000.00
500,000,000.00
600,000,000.00
700,000,000.00
800,000,000.00
900,000,000.00
1,000,000,000.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018(est)
SouthAfrica
Mexico
Australia
US Crop
Carry-In
2018 Market Impactors
❖Heavy rains throughout US Pecan growing region
❖Hurricane Irma (2017), Hurricanes Florence and Michael (2018)
❖US – China Trade Dispute
❖China’s over-purchase on inventory in 2017
❖Production increases in South Africa and Mexico
Mexican Exports to US
0.00
50,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
Source: Foreign Ag Service
Crop Year
Po
un
ds
(In
sh
ell
Ba
sis
)
Breakdown of Mexican Exports to US
Source: USDA Federal State Market News
March 4, 2017 March 4, 2018 March 4, 2019
Inshell 59,138,232 49,679,780 74,969,581
Shelled Kernels 57,758,956 48,763,303 64,887,058
Converted 174,656,144 147,026,386 204,743,697
7/31 Crop Year Final 235,604,383 233,273,657 276,826,951*
*NOTE: NFF Estimate of Gross Exports assuming 50% conversion of meats to inshell
Long Term Market Impactors
❖Continued production increases in Mexico and South Africa (including new plantings in Zambia, Namibia & Zimbabwe).
❖Cheap Labor and minimal regulatory burden in Mexico, S. Africa, China and other developing pecan producers
❖Mexico’s ability to meet GFSI Food Safety Standards and shift to selling directly to US Market
❖Additional Plantings in China
❖Major US firms changing payment terms, conditions of contracting, etc.
Projected World Pecan Production P
ou
nd
s (
Ins
he
ll B
as
is)
Crop Year Source: Stahman Farms -Australia, Golden Peanut & Tree Nut –SA, Agricultural Information Service – Mexico, USDA NASS
0.00
100,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
400,000,000.00
500,000,000.00
600,000,000.00
700,000,000.00
800,000,000.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018(est)
US Crop Australia Mexico South Africa
Pecan productionUnited States vs Mexico
0.00
50,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
350,000,000.00
400,000,000.00
450,000,000.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018(est)
US Crop Mexico
Source: USDA NASS. Foreign Ag Service, Mexican Agriculture Information Service & Nature’s Finest Foods
Po
un
ds
(In
sh
ell
Ba
sis
)
Crop Year
Pecan productionUnited States vs Mexico
0.00
50,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
350,000,000.00
400,000,000.00
450,000,000.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018(est)
US Crop Mexico Linear (US Crop) Linear (Mexico)
Source: USDA NASS. Foreign Ag Service, Mexican Agriculture Information Service & Nature’s Finest Foods
Po
un
ds
(In
sh
ell
Ba
sis
)
Crop Year
Price paid to Grower by China
Source: Foreign Ag Service
Crop Year
Do
lla
rs
/L
b.
Pa
id t
o G
ro
we
r
0.87
2.93
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Inshell: Price/Pound Paid byChina (incl: China/HK/VN)
337% Increase
Price paid to Grower for Improved Inshell
Source: USDA NASSCrop Year
Do
lla
rs
/L
b.
Pa
id t
o G
ro
we
r
364% Increase
$0.66
$2.40
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Price paid to Sheller for Jr Mammoth Halves
Source: NFF EstimateCrop Year
Do
lla
rs
/L
b.
Pa
id t
o S
he
lle
r
280% Increase
$2.25
$6.30
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
2001 20022003200420052006200720082009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Average Prices Paid to Grower
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Inshell: Price/PoundPaid by China (incl:China/HK/VN)
Inshell Price - Improved
Inshell Price - Natives
Inshell Price - USAverage
Do
lla
rs
/L
b.
Crop YearSource: Foreign Ag Service
$2.59/lb $2.66/lb
US Supply Vs Consumption & PriceP
ou
nd
s (
Ins
he
ll B
as
is)
Crop Year
Source: USDA National Ag Statistics Service, Foreign Ag Service and Nature’s Finest Foods.
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
0.00
100,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
400,000,000.00
500,000,000.00
600,000,000.00
700,000,000.00
800,000,000.00
Pr
ice
(d
oll
ar
s)
Total Supply Consumption Price of Jr Mam Hvs
US Exports to China vs S. AfricanProduction
Crop Year
Po
un
ds
(In
sh
ell
Ba
sis
)
Source: USDA Foreign Ag Service, Golden Peanut & Tree Nut – SA, Nature’s Finest Foods, Ltd.
0.00
20,000,000.00
40,000,000.00
60,000,000.00
80,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
120,000,000.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total Exports toChina (incl:China/HK/VN)
South Africa
Linear (Total Exportsto China (incl:China/HK/VN))
Linear (South Africa)
American Pecan CouncilInitiatives
❖APC Marketing/Launch of new Brand – American Pecans: The Original Supernut
❖APC Launch of Annual and Monthly Industry Statistical Reports
❖APC contracting of The Boston Consulting Group to develop an industry strategic plan
❖APC Acreage Survey
Cold Storage Holdings-NASS, APC & Committed Inventory
Month
Po
un
ds
(In
sh
ell
Ba
sis
)
Source: USDA NASS, American Pecan Council
0.00
50,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2018-2019
USDA Cold Storage APC Cold Storage APC Committed Inventory
Cold Storage Holdings-Difference: NASS v APC
Month
Po
un
ds
(In
sh
ell
Ba
sis
)
Source: USDA NASS, American Pecan Council
28,160,811.00 26,969,843.00
-6,230,712.00
26,569,950.00 27,128,391.00
-10,000,000.00
-5,000,000.00
0.00
5,000,000.00
10,000,000.00
15,000,000.00
20,000,000.00
25,000,000.00
30,000,000.00
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Cold Storage Holdings-NASS, APC & Committed Inventory
Month
Po
un
ds
(In
sh
ell
Ba
sis
)
Source: USDA NASS, American Pecan Council
0.00
50,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
150,000,000.00
200,000,000.00
250,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2018-2019
USDA Cold Storage APC Cold Storage APC Committed Inventory
Committed Inventory In Cold Storage
Month Source: American Pecan Council
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2018-2019
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