2017 ECONOMIC P - Orange City Council · Orange Economic Profile 2017 Source: Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2014-15 (cat. no. 3218.0) Significant Urban Areas Orange has seen

2017 ECONOMIC PROFILE

PREPARED BY ORANGE CITY COUNCIL

MARCH 2017

2

Orange Economic Profile 2017

Foreword 4

About this document 4

Census Data 4

Geography terms used in this document 4

Small data sets 5

Common Abbreviations 5

Population Statistics 6

Population - General 6

Estimated Residential Population by Radius Bands 6

Estimated Residential Population for Orange geographies 6

Population Comparisons by City 6

How the Population is Estimated 7

Births 7

Deaths 7

Internal Migration 7

Age and Gender - Service Age Groups 10

Age and Gender - 5 Year Age Cohorts 11

Labour Market and Skills 12

Labour force status 12

Unemployment 12

Employment by industry 14

Employment by occupation 15

Education qualifications 16

Journey to work 17

Where do the workers in jobs in Orange come from? 17

Where Do Orange Residents go for Work? 18

Business and Industry 19

Economic diversity 19

Distribution of businesses 20

Distribution of Business versus Employees by Industry 21

Employment Size Range by Industry 22

Health Industry in Orange 23

Income and Accounts 24

Regional accounts 24

Average personal income 25

Income by occupation 26

Household expenditure 26

Tourism 27

Accommodation and Occupancy 27

Destination NSW Tourist Accommodation Profile 28

Orange Accommodation Profile 28

Visitor Summary 29

International Visitor Key Measures 30

Domestic Overnight Travel Key Measures 31

Domestic Day Travel Key Measures 33

Shop Orange data 34

Day Visitors 34

Overnight Visitors 35

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Orange Economic Profile 2017 Land and Property Information 36

Rental Accommodation 36

Sydney Suburb Price Comparison 37

Median Sales Price 38

Rural property values 39

Commercial property values 40

Value of a single shop site 40

Motor vehicle registrations 41

Motor vehicle registrations in Orange City Council 41

Motor Vehicle Registrations in Orange 41

Motor vehicle registrations in the OCB region 42

Motor Vehicle Registrations in the OCB region 42

Climate and geography 43

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Foreword About this document This document has been created by Orange City Council to assist businesses and individuals to easily obtain information about the Orange City and Orange region economy as well as allowing for comparison to other areas in some instances. Wherever possible throughout this document, the data used is from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The data is sourced by Catalogue Number or other reference on each chart or table. This allows the reader to independently verify the claims made within the document. The Australian Bureau of Statistics implemented a new standard of geography (see “Geography terms used in this document”). This new standard tends to be reflected in ABS post-Census data. The reader should make themselves familiar with the various geographies to ensure they are using the data most appropriate to their needs. Maps of the various levels of geography are included at the back of this document. Census Data The last Census of Population and Housing was 2011. The next Census is due in August 2016 but the majority of the detailed data won’t be released until 2017 or 2018, depending on the detail of data required. It is because of this reason that the Census data shown here is 2011 data. The Census, while thorough, does not capture everyone in a particular location, but it is reliable enough to show trends across the broad population and industry. After the Census is completed, the ABS reviews the

data, estimates the number of people missed in the Census and this is reported in various reports either quarterly or annually. This sometimes leads to differences between Census data and quarterly Small Area Labour Market data released by the Department of Employment. Census population data (which should not be used) and the Estimated Residential Population (ERP) for the same year are also significantly different. The Census population data is used so that a particular demographic can be expressed as a percentage of the overall population. Geography terms used in this document There are various levels of geography used in the collection of data. It is important to understand what the levels are so that the reader can ensure they are reading the correct data for their needs. The data has traditionally been reported in terms of Local Government Area (LGA), Small Area Labour Markets (SALM) or Statistical Local Areas (SLA). These three geography level boundaries are practically identical in the case of Orange, Cabonne and Blayney. In 2011 the ABS introduced new geography classifications. Most reports are still released with LGA or SALM, but also have the new geography. Some reports are released with the new geography only. The new geography levels introduced in 2011 refers to Statistical Area (SA) levels. The statistical levels are designed to reflect communities that interact together socially and economically. The smallest Statistical Area is the SA1 level. All other Statistical Levels are made up of whole SA1.

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In this document, the common geography used is:

LGA Local Government Area. Less and less data is being published in LGA format and being produced in SA level data instead.

SLA Statistical Local Area (pre 2011). The boundaries are almost the same as LGA.

SALM Small Area Labour Market - used in labour force data such as unemployment rate, unemployed people and labour force.

SA 2 Medium-sized areas that represent communities. The four key ones are Orange, Orange North, Orange Region and Blayney.

SA 3 Orange SA 3 is made up of the above SA 2 regions. It is similar to the OCB LGA region but not exactly the same.

SUA Significant Urban Areas (SUAs) are aggregations of whole SA2s which represent concentrations of urban development with populations of 10,000 people or more. The Orange and Orange North SA2 form the Orange SUA. This is often referred to within this document as Orange City.

Postcode Some agencies report by postcode only.

Small data sets Where there are small numbers or results for a data set (table or report) that may allow for identification of an individual person, dwelling, business or other survey result, the ABS will randomise the data. As an example, if the ABS is releasing data on business that identifies the industry and the number of employees and there is only business in manufacturing

employing 200 or more people, then the data is randomized. The resulting entry into the table may be 0, 1, 2 or 3. This is to protect privacy. Common Abbreviations

ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics

ERP Estimated Residential Population -

LGA Local Government Area(s)

OCB Orange, Cabonne and Blayney LGAs

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Population Statistics Population - General

At 30 June 2015 the estimated resident population (ERP) of the city of Orange was 40,075, an increase of 0.8% over the previous year. The population of the Orange Local Government Area (LGA) was 41,809 or an increase of 1.0% over the previous year. The ERP of the wider Orange-Cabonne-Blayney (OCB) region was 63,049 in June 2015, an increase of 0.8% compared with twelve months earlier. In 2012, a total of 89,228 people live within a 50 kilometre radius of Orange City Centre with 45% of these residing less than 10 kilometres from the center of the City. A further 157,488 people live between 50 and 200 kilometres to the west of the City. Estimated Residential Population by Radius Bands

Radius Area ERP in a zone ERP within X kms of City Centre

Less than 10km 39,989 10km 39,989

10 to 20kms 3,903 20kms 43,892

20 to 30kms 4,033 30kms 47,925

30 to 40kms 8,014 40kms 55,939

40 to 50kms 33,289 50kms 89,228

50 to 100kms (East) 44,396

50 to 100kms (West) 36,497 100kms 170,121

100 to 150kms (East) 92,764

100 to 150kms (West) 76,224 150kms 339,109

150 to 200kms (East) 2,837,687

150 to 200kms (West) 44,767 200kms 3,221,563

Total within 200km 3,221,563 3,221,563 Source: ABS Customised Report, Estimated resident population, June 2012

Estimated Residential Population for Orange geographies

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Orange SA2 20241 20375 20672 20901 20959 21081

Orange - North SA2 16747 17410 17851 18307 18782 18994

Orange 36988 37785 38523 39208 39741 40075

Orange LGA 38660 39419 40160 40851 41406 41809

Source: Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2014-15 (cat. no. 3218.0)

Source: Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2014-15 (cat. no. 3218.0)

Population Comparisons by City

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Orange City 37785 38523 39208 39741 40075

Bathurst City 33754 34203 34855 35369 36013

Dubbo City 35281 35701 36073 36599 36941 Source: Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2014-15 (cat. no. 3218.0) Significant Urban Areas

34000

36000

38000

40000

42000

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Orange City ERP versus Orange LGA ERP

Orange City

Orange LGA

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Source: Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2014-15 (cat. no. 3218.0) Significant Urban Areas

Orange has seen consistent growth since 2006 and continues to grow at a rate quicker than predicted by the NSW Government. A lot of this growth can be attributed to the diversity of industry and security of the jobs within the region. See more under Employment by Industry.

How the Population is Estimated

The Estimated Residential Population (ERP) is calculated annually by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The ABS uses a range of data sources to calculate the ERP. The ERP figure released is the estimate for 30 June of the year of release (end of financial year). In simple terms, the ABS uses the following to estimate the population: last year’s ERP; births; deaths; net internal migration (NIM or domestic migration) and net overseas migration (NOM or international migration).

The ABS uses various data sources to estimate these figures such as Medicare change of address details, information from Births and Deaths Registers as well as information from immigration. Births Orange has consistently ranked as the 5th highest suburb in NSW for births. Orange has also consistently ranked as the highest suburb outside Sydney metropolitan area for births.

Orange Suburb 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Number of births 580 597 576 588 550

Suburb ranking in NSW 5 5 5 5 5 Source: http://www.bdm.nsw.gov.au/Documents/top-baby-suburbs.pdf

Deaths 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

ORANGE LGA 314 282 383 319 303 319 Source: ABS Deaths, Australia, 2015 (cat. No. 3302.0)

Net Natural Increase is the term used for the number of births over a period less the number of deaths over the same period. Although the births and deaths figures above are both on a calendar year, they are from a different geography so not directly comparable. A very loose comparison between 2012 and 2014 shows approximately 270 more births than deaths per year for Orange. Internal Migration This is a measure of net growth, measured by people moving to a region less the number of people moving away from the region. Orange has had a predominately positive net migration since 2007-08.

28000

30000

32000

34000

36000

38000

40000

42000

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

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Population Comparisons by City

Orange

Bathurst

Dubbo

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Net Internal (Domestic) Migration for Orange LGA

Arrivals Departures Net

2007-08 2714 2602 112

2008-09 2527 2794 -267

2009-10 2596 2335 261

2010-11 2969 2415 554

2011-12 3041 2713 328

2012-13 2434 2450 -16

2013-14 2282 2380 -98

2014-15 2445 2292 153

2006-07 to 2014-15 21008 19981 1027

Average each year 2,626 2,498 128 Source: ABS Migration, Australia, 2014-15 (cat. No. 3412.0)

Orange sustained above average growth through high net migration during 2010-11 and 2011-12. This coincided with some significant construction projects such as the Orange Health Service, Charles Sturt University School of Dentistry as well as the construction of the Cadia East project. With the conclusion of these projects, the expected exodus of people did not occur, thus reinforcing the strengths of the local labour market to support additional employment. Migration summary Number

Current residents who moved at least once between 2006 and 2011 14,123

Residents who had moved within Orange City 6,648

Migration from other parts of New South Wales 5,491

Migration to other parts of New South Wales 4,063

Net Migration from other parts of New South Wales 1,428

Migration from other parts of Australia 1,165

Migration to other parts of Australia 1,358

Net Migration from other parts of Australia -193

Migration from other countries 668

The migration summary table shows that there were 6,648 people in Orange who had relocated within Orange between 2006 and 2011. This is 17.5% of the population in Orange had moved over a 5 year period. Combined with the migration in and out, the numbers of dwellings for rent or sale over the period were significant. This is reflected in the number of real estate agencies in Orange.

State / Territory In

migration Out

migration Net migration

New South Wales 5,491 4,063 1,428

Victoria 177 185 -8

Queensland 507 636 -129

South Australia 95 80 15

Western Australia 189 153 36

Tasmania 72 34 38

Northern Territory 31 41 -10

Australian Capital Territory 94 229 -135

The table above shows the net migration by state or territory. Orange loses most people to the ACT, which is potentially a reflection of public sector employment and university admission. The high levels of activity in migration between Orange and Queensland or Western Australia reflects relocation activity as part of the mining and resources boom. There were 35% more people from NSW move to Orange between 2006 and 2011 than moved from Orange to other parts of NSW.

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The Local Government Areas that created the greatest net loss to the Orange Local Government Area over the period 2006 to 2011 are in the table below.

LGA In

migration Out

migration Net

migration

ACT 85 229 -144

Bathurst Regional 179 259 -80

Port Macquarie-Hastings 38 101 -63

Moreton Bay 29 89 -60

Sunshine Coast 25 84 -59

Newcastle 54 110 -56

Cabonne 690 741 -51

Lake Macquarie 61 107 -46

Shoalhaven 43 85 -42

Wollongong 87 126 -39

With most of the net losses it is likely people were moving for work or education reasons. The net loss to Cabonne is more than likely that this is for lifestyle change to move from city based living to rural or rural residential lifestyle blocks. The small geographic area of the Orange LGA creates these types of anomalies with data. The following table shows the Local Government Area that created the greatest net gains for the Orange LGA. Half of the LGAs are Sydney based LGAs. Apart from Brisbane the other LGAs sit within the Central NSW region.

LGA In

migration Out

migration Net

migration

Blacktown 138 39 99

Parkes 143 63 80

Dubbo 166 101 65

Hornsby 72 13 59

Parramatta 70 12 58

Cowra 96 41 55

Brisbane 121 70 51

Holroyd 59 10 49

Lachlan 71 22 49

Penrith 111 63 48

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Age and Gender - Service Age Groups

At June 2011, 64% of the population of Orange was in the principal working age population aged between 15 and 64 years. This was slightly higher than the OCB region and the Rest of NSW (both 63%). In Orange, 14% of the population was aged 65 years and above, lower than that found in the OCB region (15%) and the Rest of NSW (18%). The aged dependency rate, measured as the size of the population aged 65 years and above as a proportion of the working age population, was 22.1 in Orange compared with 24.0 in OCB and 27.9 in the Rest of NSW. In addition, the aged dependency ratio in Orange has increased by only 0.1% since 2006 compared with an increase of 7.8% for the Rest of NSW. Conversely, 22% of the population of Orange was aged less than 15 years, a similar level to that found in OCB but higher than for the Rest of NSW (19%).The above is reflected in the lower average (mean) age of the population in Orange at 37.4 years, compared with 38.3 years for OCB and 40.6 years for the Rest of NSW. Orange had a marginally higher proportion of females in the population (51%) compared with both the OCB region and the Rest of NSW (both 50%). The overall dependency ratio, defined as the size of the non-working age population divided by the working age population, is lower in Orange at 56.2 than either the OCB region (58.8) or the Rest of NSW (58.3). In addition, whilst dependency ratios have increased over the past five years, the rate of increase in Orange has been lower than in the comparison regions.

The age structure in Orange indicates that the City has a higher proportion of the population in the economically active age group than regional NSW as a whole as well as a lower percentage of persons aged 65 years and over.

Source: ABS Census 2011, ABS Cat. No. 3235.0

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0-14 15-34 35-64 65 +

Age Distribution of Resident Population

Orange

OCB

Rest of NSW

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Age and Gender - 5 Year Age Cohorts

A cohort is a group of data units sharing a common characteristic. This data has been grouped into cohorts of 5 years for comparative analysis. At the 2011 Census, males outnumbered females in the three youngest 5 year age cohorts. The females outnumbered the males in all other cohorts, significantly so in the 70 year plus age range. The largest cohort was the 0-4 age group. The next largest cohort is 10-14 followed by 15-19 age groups. The fourth largest cohort is the 5-9 cohort, indicating Orange has a sustainable growth through births. The size of the population under 20 years of age presents opportunities in specialist retailing and services to the younger age groups.

Source: Census 2011

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

0 to 4

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85 and over

2011 Census 5 Year Cohorts - Male & Female

Total

Females

Males

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Labour Market and Skills Labour force status

At the 2011 Census the labour force participation rate in Orange was 76.4% for people aged between 15 and 64 years, higher than for OCB (76.2%) and the Rest of NSW (73.0%). The youth unemployment rate, measured as a percentage of the labour force aged 15 – 19 years, was considerably lower in Orange at 12.9% than for OCB (13.2%) and the Rest of NSW (15.8%).

Source: Census 2011

Amongst those aged between 15 and 64 years in the workforce 71% in Orange were in full-time employment, similar to that found for the wider OCB region. This was considerably higher than for the Rest of NSW where 65% were employed full-time and 35% were in part-time employment.

The labour force in Orange, Cabonne and Blayney tends to flow between one location and another due to the close proximity. There is more information available under the Journey to Work section of this document.

Unemployment

In the September quarter of 2016, the unemployment rate in Orange was 4.5%. This is a reduction from 7.0% in the September 2015 quarter. The OCB region had a lower unemployment rate in the September quarter of 2016 at 4.1%. Over the past 8 years the unemployment rate in the OCB region has been lower than that for Orange.

Source: Department of Employment Small Area Labour Markets

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Orange

OCB

Rest of NSW

Distribution of the Labour Force, 2011

Employed full-time Employed part-time Unemployed

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

Mar

-08

Sep

-08

Mar

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Sep

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Mar

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Sep

-10

Mar

-11

Sep

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Mar

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Sep

-12

Mar

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Sep

-13

Mar

-14

Sep

-14

Mar

-15

Sep

-15

Mar

-16

Sep

-16

Unemployment Rate - Smoothed Series

Orange

Blayney

Cabonne

OCB

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Orange reached a high of 1,504 unemployed persons in the September 2015 quarter. This figure had fallen to 1,018 just one year later, a reduction of 486 persons. While it is not possible to quantify where the jobs were created, anecdotal information suggests it is likely that the recovery is underpinned by the expanding healthcare and social assistance, public administration and education sectors. Over the same period (Sept15 to Sept16) the labour force grew by 1,317 persons. This sizable growth in the labour market while reducing the number of unemployed people demonstrates the underlying strength in the Orange economy. The graph showing employed persons is derived by taking the number of unemployed away from the number of persons in the labour force.


Source: Derived from Department of Employment Small Area Labour Markets

0

200

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1000

1200

1400

1600

Mar

-08

Sep

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Mar

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Sep

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Mar

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Sep

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Mar

-11

Sep

-11

Mar

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Sep

-12

Mar

-13

Sep

-13

Mar

-14

Sep

-14

Mar

-15

Sep

-15

Mar

-16

Sep

-16

Unemployed Persons

Orange

Blayney

Cabonne

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Mar

-…

Sep

-08

Mar

-…

Sep

-09

Mar

-…

Sep

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Mar

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Sep

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Sep

-12

Mar

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Sep

-13

Mar

-…

Sep

-14

Mar

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Sep

-15

Mar

-…

Sep

-16

Labour Force

Orange

Blayney

Cabonne

18000

18500

19000

19500

20000

20500

21000

21500

22000

Mar

-08

Sep

-08

Mar

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Sep

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Mar

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Sep

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Mar

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Sep

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Mar

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Mar

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Sep

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Mar

-14

Sep

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Mar

-15

Sep

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Mar

-16

Sep

-16

Employed Persons - Orange LGA

Orange (C)

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Employment by industry

At the 2011 Census there were 17,336 persons counted as being employed in Orange of which 77% were residents of the City. Health care and social assistance is the single biggest employer in Orange. A similar result is found for OCB and the Rest of NSW. However, the proportion of the total workforce employed in this sector is significantly higher in Orange at 20% than in OCB (16%) or the Rest of NSW (13%). Compared with the Rest of NSW, Orange has above average levels of employment in the following sectors:

Education and training;

Public administration and safety;

Mining;

Rental, hiring and real estate services;

Professional, scientific and technical services;

Retail trade; and

Other services. Sectors which have grown more slowly than in the Rest of NSW include health care and social assistance, retail trade and public administration and safety. However, these sectors already contributed a greater proportion of employment in Orange in 2006 than was found for the Rest of NSW.

Source: Census 2011

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Health care & social assistance

Retail trade

Education & training

Manufacturing

Public administration & safety

Accommodation & food services

Construction

Professional, scientific & technical services

Other services

Transport, postal & warehousing

Wholesale trade

Mining

Administrative & support services

Financial & insurance services

Rental, hiring & real estate services

Agriculture, forestry & fishing

Electricity, gas, water & waste services

Information media & telecommunications

Arts & recreation services

Employment by Industry, 2011

Orange OCB Rest of NSW

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Employment by occupation

Professional occupations form the single biggest category amongst people working in Orange at 22% of the workforce. This represents a higher proportion of employment than is found in either OCB (19%) or the Rest of NSW (17%). Orange has an above average proportion of employment in clerical & administrative workers at 16% when compared with either the wider OCB region (14%) or the Rest of NSW (12%). At the one digit ANZSCO level, the main area of under-representation amongst occupations in Orange compared with the Rest of NSW is managers. However, this category includes farmers and farm managers which comprise 29% of the managers category in the Rest of NSW but only 7% in Orange. Shift-share analysis of changes in employment by occupation between 2006 and 2011 indicates that, amongst occupations growing at above average rate, growth in Orange has outstripped the Rest of NSW in health professionals, office managers & program administrators and storepersons. Occupations which have been growing at an above average rate in the Rest of NSW but where Orange has yet to capitalise include:

ICT professionals;

Legal, social and welfare professionals;

Food trades workers; and

Hospitality workers.

Source: Census 2011

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Machinery Operators & Drivers

Labourers

Sales Workers

Community & Personal Service Workers

Managers

Technicians & Trades Workers

Clerical & Administrative Workers

Professionals

Employment by Occupation,2011


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Education qualifications

At June 2011, the proportion of the population of Orange aged 15 years and above holding a post-school qualification was 48%, higher than for the Orange-Cabonne-Blayney region (47%) and the Rest of NSW (46%). The proportion of the population of Orange aged 15 years and above holding a Bachelor degree or above was 16%, compared with 15% in the Orange-Cabonne-Blayney region and 14% in the Rest of NSW. Amongst the population aged between 25 and 34 years, the age group targeted by the Federal Government to achieve 40% holding a Bachelor degree by 2025, 23% in Orange held a Bachelor degree or above compared with 22% in both the Orange-Cabonne-Blayney region and the Rest of NSW. Amongst those aged between 25 and 34 years, the proportion holding a post-school qualifications in Orange and the wider Orange-Cabonne-Blayney region (both 65%) was higher than for the Rest of NSW (63%).

Source: ABS Census 2011

Source: ABS Census 2011

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

No post school qualifications

Certificate III & IV Level

Bachelor degree

Advanced diploma or diploma

Postgraduate degree

Certificate I & II Level

Educational qualififcations, population aged 15 years and above, 2011


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

No post school qualifications

Certificate III & IV Level

Bachelor degree

Advanced diploma or diploma

Certificate I & II Level

Postgraduate degree

Education qualifications, population aged 25 - 34 years, June 2011


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Journey to work

Where do the workers in jobs in Orange come from? In the 2011 Census, there were 17,336 people working in Orange of which 77% were residents of the City. The balance of the workforce is primarily drawn from residents of Cabonne (11.7%), Blayney (4.4%) and Bathurst (3.2%). The remainder is drawn from a large number of other LGAs, mainly in western NSW. Residents of Cabonne who work in Orange have above average representation in the following industry sectors in the City:

Electricity, gas, water and waste services;

Education and training;

Wholesale trade; and

Construction. Residents of Blayney who work in Orange have above average representation in the following industry sectors in the City:

Mining;

Arts and recreation services;

Electricity, gas, water and waste services; and

Transport, postal and warehousing. Residents of Bathurst who work in Orange have above average representation in the following industry sectors in the City:

Public administration and training;

Information media and telecommunications; and

Wholesale trade.

Where do people come from to work in Orange?

LGA Persons

Orange 13,291

Cabonne 2,016

Blayney 760

Bathurst 544

Wellington 78

Cowra 64

Dubbo 59

Parkes 50

Other 382 Source:2011 Census

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Where Do Orange Residents go for Work? Of the 16,800 people living in Orange in the 2011 Census who were in employment, 79% worked in the City. Residents of the City working elsewhere are primarily employed in Cabonne (5.9%), Blayney (3.2%) and Bathurst (1.6%). It should be noted that 9% nominated a place of work that was either “undefined” or of no fixed address. Persons employed in the construction, administrative & support services and transport, postal & warehousing were more likely to nominate a place of work that was “undefined” or of no fixed address as a result of working in a range of locations. A similar trend was found for the Rest of NSW with persons employed in construction and administrative & support services significantly more likely to indicate a non-specified place of work. Residents of Orange who work in Cabonne are more likely to be employed in the following industry sectors:

Mining;

Agriculture, forestry and fishing; and

Administrative and support services. Residents of Orange who work in Blayney are more likely to be employed in the following industry sectors:

Mining;

Manufacturing; and

Agriculture, forestry and fishing. Residents of Orange who work in Bathurst are more likely to be employed in the following industry sectors:

Financial and insurance services;

Information media and telecommunications; and

Public administration and safety. Where do Orange residents work?

Orange 13291

Cabonne 901

Blayney 481

Bathurst 239

Sydney 34

Wellington 29

Dubbo 28

Parkes 18

Other 1782 Source: 2011 Census

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Business and Industry Economic diversity

The index of economic diversity measures the industrial structure of a region in terms of employment compared with national or State averages. Greater diversity generally indicates increased resilience to downturns in any one sector and reduced economic vulnerability. When the index approaches zero, the regional economy is close to mirroring the national economy and may be considered more diverse. As the index increases it reflects a divergence from the distribution of employment in the national or State economies and indicates a less diverse economy. The accompanying table indicates the index of economic diversity for Orange and other regions in western New South Wales compared with Australia, the State as a whole and the Rest of NSW. Orange has a more diverse economy than the surrounding LGAs of Cabonne and Blayney which have a greater reliance on the agriculture and mining sectors. The economic diversity index for Orange in comparison with Australia and New South Wales has increased marginally since 2006, primarily as a result of expansion of employment in health care and social assistance.

Index of economic diversity compared with:

Australia New South Wales Rest of NSW

Orange LGA 0.93 1.05 0.91

Blayney LGA 5.49 5.98 4.98

Cabonne LGA 8.22 8.74 7.19

Orange-Cabonne-Blayney 0.90 1.13 0.64

Central West SA4 1.17 1.41 0.77

Bathurst LGA 0.80 0.95 0.82

Dubbo LGA* 0.55 0.62 0.52

Lithgow LGA 2.56 2.92 2.46

Mid Western Regional LGA 3.09 3.43 2.47

Regional NSW 0.28 0.47 0.00

New South Wales 0.06 0.00 n.a.

Australia 0.00 n.a. n.a. This was Dubbo City Council prior to amalgamation with Wellington Shire Council

Source: Census 2011

20


Distribution of businesses

At June 2015 there were more than 2,800 businesses registered in the City of Orange1. Approximately 18% of businesses were in the construction sector although more than 60% of these were sole traders. Rental, hiring and real estate services accounted for 10% of businesses with in excess of 80% being sole traders. Other sectors contributing a significant proportion of registered businesses in Orange City include:

Healthcare and Social Assistance;

Professional, scientific & technical services;

Retail trade; and

Agriculture, forestry and fishing. The broader Orange SA 3 region (similar to the OCB LGA boundary and includes City of Orange) had 5,034 registered businesses at 30 June 2015 Agriculture is the dominate proportion of businesses in the Orange SA 3 region with 25% of total business numbers. Construction is the next highest in the broader SA 3 region; however this is primarily because of the large numbers of construction firms in Orange and in the rural residential areas surrounding Orange.

1 Care should be taken in interpreting this data. The General Government Institutional Sector is excluded which impacts on counts for Public Administration & Safety, Education &Training and Health Care & Social Assistance. In addition the geographical classifications used do not directly correlate with LGA boundaries.

Source: ABS Cat. No. 8165.0

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Electricity, Gas, Water and…

Public Administration and…

Information Media and…

Mining

Education and Training

Arts and Recreation Services

Currently unknown

Administrative and Support…

Wholesale Trade

Manufacturing

Accommodation and Food…

Other Services

Transport, Postal and…

Financial and Insurance…

Retail Trade

Health Care and Social…

Professional, Scientific and…

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate…

Construction

Agriculture, Forestry and…

Distribution of Businesses, June 2015

City

SA3

21


Distribution of Business versus Employees by Industry

The number of businesses in an industry sector is not proportionate to the number of people employed within that sector. The Education and Training industry has less than 1% of the number of businesses in Orange yet employs more than 10% of the people who work in Orange. The industries that have a high ratio of employees per business are:

Health Care and Social Assistance;

Education and Training; and

Public Administration and Safety. The industries with a lower ratio of employees per business are usually the ones where people are self-employed. The industries in the City of Orange with the lowest ratios of employees per business are:

Agriculture;

Financial and Insurance Services;

Construction

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate

Source: ABS Cat. No. 8165.0, 2011 Census

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

Arts and Recreation Services

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

Inadequately described

Information Media and…

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste…

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate…

Financial and Insurance Services

Administrative and Support Services

Mining

Wholesale Trade

Transport, Postal and Warehousing

Other Services

Professional, Scientific and…

Construction

Accommodation and Food Services

Public Administration and Safety

Manufacturing

Education and Training

Retail Trade

Health Care and Social Assistance

Distribution of business and employees, Orange City

% workforce

% businesses

22


Employment Size Range by Industry

It can be identified from the table below that 55% of businesses in Orange are operated by sole traders who do not employ any other staff. Orange City Business Count

Industry (Orange SUA) 0 1-4 5-19 20-199 200+ Total

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 159 29 12 3 0 203

Mining 10 3 3 0 0 16

Manufacturing 47 46 24 10 0 127

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste 3 0 0 0 0 3

Construction 277 166 56 3 0 502

Wholesale Trade 39 21 24 0 0 84

Retail Trade 83 65 59 10 0 217

Accommodation and Food Services 28 44 48 14 0 134

Transport, Postal and Warehousing 96 44 12 5 0 157

Information Media and Telecom 8 0 0 0 0 8

Financial and Insurance Services 163 37 8 3 0 211

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate 231 39 12 0 0 282

Professional, Scientific and Technical 132 86 36 8 0 262

Administrative and Support Services 39 36 18 6 0 99

Public Administration and Safety 3 3 3 0 0 9

Education and Training 9 7 6 0 0 22

Health Care and Social Assistance 124 88 29 6 0 247

Arts and Recreation Services 13 7 3 3 0 26

Other Services 71 67 20 6 0 164

Currently unknown 25 3 3 0 0 31

TOTAL 1560 791 376 77 0 2804

Source: ABS Counts of Australian Business (Cat No 8165.0)

The proportions of businesses that do not employ any staff are highest in both Orange City and Orange Region for the following industries:

Financial & Insurance Services;

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate;

Agriculture;

Orange Region Business Count

Industry (Orange SA3) 0 1-4 5-19 20-199 200+ Total

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 906 267 87 17 0 1277

Mining 13 9 6 0 0 28

Manufacturing 85 65 35 10 0 195

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste 6 0 0 0 0 6

Construction 455 257 70 3 0 785

Wholesale Trade 76 31 31 3 0 141

Retail Trade 118 87 73 13 0 291

Accommodation and Food Services 47 77 63 17 0 204

Transport, Postal and Warehousing 150 80 18 5 0 253

Information Media and Telecom 8 4 0 0 0 12

Financial and Insurance Services 237 43 8 3 0 291

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate 313 50 15 0 0 378

Professional, Scientific and Technical 202 123 42 8 0 375

Administrative and Support Services 58 41 24 6 0 129

Public Administration and Safety 3 3 3 0 0 9

Education and Training 16 13 6 0 0 35

Health Care and Social Assistance 150 104 35 6 0 295

Arts and Recreation Services 23 16 3 3 0 45

Other Services 102 93 27 6 0 228

Currently unknown 45 6 6 0 0 57

Total 3013 1369 552 100 0 5034

Source: ABS Counts of Australian Business (Cat No 8165.0)

Care should be taken when interpreting this data as there are randomized numbers where the data results are very small to protect privacy.

23


Health Industry in Orange

The healthcare and social assistance industry is the single largest contributor

to employment in Orange. As well as being a significant employer, the

industry also attracts a number of visitors from the broader region to come

to Orange for specialist medical treatment or care.

The aged care sector also fits within this industry group and has seen

significant expansion in recent years (2015-16) with new and redeveloped

aged care facilities opening. These new and revamped facilities include

Gosling Creek Aged Care (new) and Wontama (refurbishment and

expansion).

The new $250 million dollar public health facility was opened in May 2011

and provides medical services to the Central West region of NSW. The

Orange hospital is the largest hospital in NSW outside of metropolitan

Sydney. The Mental Health component of the campus is only one of its kind

in NSW and provides both State and Area wide services; it is integrally linked

with medical services through Orange Base Hospital and with training and

research facilities such as the Universities of Sydney and Newcastle.

At June 2011, there were 3,371 people employed in the health care & social

assistance sector in Orange, representing 20% of people working in the City.

Of those employed in health care & social assistance:

36% were employed in hospitals;

28% were employed in medical and other health care services;

20% were employed in social assistance services; and

16% were employed in residential care services.

The key occupations amongst those employed in health care & social

assistance were:

Community & personal service workers (26%);

Midwifery & nursing professionals (25%);

Clerical & administrative workers (15%); and

Medical practitioners (6%).

Hospital facilities in Orange include:

Orange Health Service (public)

Bloomfield Hospital (public)

Dudley Private Hospital (private)

Orange Day Surgery Centre

Orange Eye Centre

In 2016 there were more than 40 general practitioners in Orange.

24


Income and Accounts

Regional accounts

The gross regional product of Orange in 2013-14 was estimated to be $2.7 billion (Source: RDA CW Economic Profile). This equates to approximately $66,064 per capita. The industry sectors contributing most to gross regional product are:

Health care and social assistance;

Mining; and

Manufacturing. Sectors with a greater contribution to gross regional product than to full-time equivalent employment in Orange include:

Financial and insurance services (3.2:1);

Mining (2.8:1);

Electricity, gas, water and waste services (2.5:1); and

Information media and telecommunications (1.9:1).

Distribution of industry value added, 2011-12

Source: RedeConsult estimates

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Health care & social assistance

Mining

Manufacturing

Public administration & safety

Financial & insurance services

Education & training

Retail trade

Construction

Professional, scientific & technical services

Transport, postal & warehousing

Accommodation & food services

Wholesale trade

Other services

Electricity, gas, water & waste services

Rental, hiring & real estate services

Administrative & support services

Information media & telecommunications

Agriculture, forestry & fishing

Arts & recreation services

Value added FTE

25


Average personal income

In 2010-11 average personal taxable income amongst residents of Orange was $59,690. This was higher than the average for the Orange-Cabonne-Blayney region ($58,590) and the Rest of NSW ($56,680). Over the previous five years average personal taxable income amongst residents of Orange had increased at an average rate of 5.7% per annum. This is marginally lower than for the OCB region (6.0% per annum) but higher than for the Rest of NSW (5.2% per annum). Since 2007-08, average personal taxable income amongst residents of Orange has consistently been more than 5% higher than the average for residents of the Rest of NSW. Higher average personal income levels can reflect greater financial security and adaptive capacity to change, all other things being equal. The ratio of median house prices to mean personal income in Orange is 4.97, indicating greater financial security than the average for the Rest of NSW where the ratio is 5.22.

Average personal taxable income, 2006-07 to 2010-11

Source: Australian Taxation Office, 2013

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11


26


Income by occupation

Data from the 2011 Census indicates that the average income of persons in employment in Orange was approximately $54,650, some 9% higher than the average for the Rest of NSW. People employed in managerial occupations earned significantly more than their counterparts in the wider Orange-Cabonne-Blayney region and the Rest of NSW. Average income of employed people in Orange across all major occupation groupings, with the exception of those employed as machinery operators and drivers, was higher than for the same categories in the Rest of NSW. Persons employed as technicians and tradespersons and machinery operators and drivers earned less in Orange on average, as a result of the impact of the mining sector in the wider region.

Source: Census 2011

Household expenditure

It is estimated that average weekly household expenditure in Orange in 2012-13 is approximately $1,335. The key areas of expenditure are current housing costs (20%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (16%), transport (16%) and recreation (12%). Distribution of average weekly household expenditure, Orange, 2012-13

Source: ABS Cat. No. 6530.0, 6401.0, Census 2011

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000

Managers

Professionals

Technicians and Trades Workers

Community and Personal Service Workers

Clerical and Administrative Workers

Sales Workers

Machinery Operators and Drivers

Labourers

Average Income by Occupation, 2011


0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Current housing costs (selected dwelling)

Food and non-alcoholic beverages

Transport

Recreation

Miscellaneous goods and services

Medical care and health expenses

Household services and operation

Household furnishings and equipment

Clothing and footwear

Alcoholic beverages

Domestic fuel and power

Personal care

Tobacco products

27


Tourism Accommodation and Occupancy

The average room occupancy rate in hotels, motels and serviced apartments with 15 or more rooms in Orange in the year ending 30 June 2015 was 67%. This represents a decrease from the peak occupancy recorded in 2012 although it should be recognised that the earlier rate coincided with major construction projects in the City with many workers seeking temporary accommodation. At the March quarter of 2013 there were 453 rooms available in hotels, motels and serviced apartments in Orange. Room occupancy rates over the year ranged from a low of 50% in December 2012 to a high of 77% in October 2012. Average takings per room night occupied averaged $125 across the year. Average room occupancy rates in Orange have been considerable higher than the average for other regional centres2 over the past six years. In the year ending March 2013, the average room occupancy rate in Orange was 20% higher than for the other regional centres. In June 2015 this had risen to 29%. Average takings per room night occupied has also been higher in Orange, although the gap has narrowed slightly since 2010. The table on the following page shows even though the number of rooms in Orange grew by 18% in 2015, the average room rate and the yield increased across the industry, proving there is scope for growth in this market.

2 Centres included are Bathurst, Cowra, Forbes, Mudgee and Parkes.

Source: ABS Cat. No. 8635.1.55.001, Destination NSW

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Average room occupancy rates and takings

Orange - average takings per room night sold

Region - average takings per room night sold

Orange - average room occupancy rate

Region - average room occupancy rate

28


Destination NSW Tourist Accommodation Profile

Supply Demand Revenue

1 Yr %

2 Estab

3 No of Room

4 Night Avail

5 Night Occ

6 Occ rate

7 Take

8 Av

Rate

9 Yield

Orange LGA

2014 12 481 175 116 66.3 14.2 122.40 81.14

2015 13 567 197 131 66.6 16.9 128.52 85.53

% 8.3 17.9 12.8 12.8 0.3 18.5 5.0 5.4

Central NSW Tourism Region

2014 131 3,921 1,428 749 52.5 86.4 115.32 60.50

2015 133 4,046 1,464 754 51.5 92.1 122.12 62.90

% 1.5 3.2 2.5 0.6 -1.0 6.6 5.9 4.0

Regional NSW

2014 1,094 38,541 13,999 7,175 51.3 994.3 138.57 71.02

2015 1,119 38,472 13,757 7,314 53.2 1053.2 144.00 76.56

% 2.3 -0.2 -1.7 1.9 1.9 5.9 3.9 7.8

NSW

2014 1,375 75,161 27,321 17,928 65.6 3124.8 174.30 114.37

2015 1,435 75,184 27,103 18,144 66.9 3243.7 178.77 119.68

% 4.4 0.0 -0.8 1.2 1.3 3.8 2.6 4.6

1 – Year ending 30 June or % difference between 2014 & 2015 2 – Establishments (no) 3 – Rooms (no) 4 – Room nights available (000’s) (no) 5 – Room nights occupied (000’s) (no) 6 – Room Occupancy rate (%) 7 – Takings from Accommodation ($ millions) 8 – Average room rate ($) 9 – Yield ($) (Average takings per room per night – occupied or not)

The above table shows a growth of 86 rooms (22,000 room nights) in Orange over the 12 month period to 30 June 2015. Despite adverse predictions about occupancy rates from within the industry regarding the additional competition, the occupancy rate grew marginally (0.3%) but there was a 5% growth in the average room rate and 5.4% growth in yield.

The yield per room is significantly better for Orange than Central NSW Tourism (36%) and Regional NSW (12%). This performance is coming on top of a year where there was an 18% increase in rooms in Orange. This shows the Orange visitor economy is able to expand to create additional demand to meet any new supply in the traditional accommodation market. Orange Accommodation Profile

Accommodation Type Establishments Rooms

Motels 10 516

Hotels (Pubs) 7 58

Caravan Parks 2 26

Large self-contained apartments 3 67

Self-contained apartments/houses 104 226

B & B’s and guesthouses 12 55

Air B & B listings (as at 6/6/16) 117 Source: Orange Visitor Information Centre survey’s and Air BnB website

29


Visitor Summary

As the peak tourism body for the state of NSW, Destination NSW collects statistics and reports for the visitor economy throughout the state. These figures are then utilized by the industry to assess growth or decline in the visitor numbers.

It can be observed from the above graph, and the following table, that Orange is now attracting a total of over three quarters of a million visitors a year. The overnight visitor market is now over the quarter of a million visitors a year. The figures can be quite volatile as they are collected on a

national basis and then apportioned. This can lead to large fluctuations in the figures.

Key Measures Orange NSW

Total Visitors (overnight and domestic daytrip) (000's) 767 80,316

Total Overnight Visitors (000's) 273 28,105

Total Nights (000's) 907 154,563

Total Spend (overnight and domestic daytrip) ($ Million) 191 26,503

Total Overnight Visitor Spend ($ Million) 119 20,955 Source: Destination NSW, Orange LGA Profile YE September 2014

The above table indicates that the domestic daytrip visitors (total visitors less overnight visitors and international visitors) number around 487,000 and form a very critical part of the visitor market. The reasons for day visits are many and varied. They can include visiting friends or relatives, medical appointments, conferences, leisure or sporting events. The Domestic Day Travel Key Measures highlights some high level statistics on this group. Orange City Council has also carried out some work on discovering why Domestic Day Travelers and Domestic Overnight Travelers come to Orange. This was through a ‘Shop Orange’ campaign where the reason for visit was recorded. See the Shop Orange section of this document for more information.

30


International Visitor Key Measures

Orange hosts around the 6-7,000 international visitors per year. The average spend per international visitor ($985) is more than double the average spend of the overnight domestic visitor ($398).

International Visitor Key Measures Orange NSW

Visitors (000's) 7 2,910

Nights (000's) 128 70,300

Average Length of Stay (nights) 17.8 24.2

Expenditure ($ Million) 6 6,488

Spend per visitor ($) 985 2,229

Spend per night ($) 49 92 Source: Destination NSW, Orange LGA Profile YE September 2014

Purpose of Visit (visitors) 000's LGA % NSW %

Holiday 3 46 56

VFR 2 31 27

Business * * 13

Education * * 5

Employment * * 3

Other * * 4 Source: Destination NSW, Orange LGA Profile YE September 2014

Purpose of Visit (nights) 000's LGA % NSW %

Holiday 52 41 32

VFR 39 30 24

Business * * 6

Education * * 26

Employment * * 11


Top 5 Origin Markets (visitors) 000's LGA % NSW %

New Zealand 2 22 13

United Kingdom * * 11

France * * 2

USA * * 10

Canada * * 3 Source: Destination NSW, Orange LGA Profile YE September 2014

The latest figures from Tourism Research Australia (year ending September 2014) shows that 56% of the international visitors to Orange are an unaccompanied traveler. Of the international travelers coming here, 25% are aged 15-24 years and 23% are 25 to 34 years. This compares to 18% and 26% respectively for NSW.

Top 5 Accommodation types (nights) 000's LGA % NSW %

Home of friends or relatives (no payment required) 44 35 30

Rented house, apartment, flat or unit * * 42

Caravan 21 17 1

Other non-commercial property * * 1

Homestay * * 4 Source: Destination NSW, Orange LGA Profile YE September 2014

Travel Party (visitors) 000's LGA % NSW %

Unaccompanied traveller 4 56 54

Adult couple (in a relationship sense) 2 23 20

Friends or relatives travelling together * * 10

Family group - parent(s) and children * * 10

Business associates travelling together * * 4

School tour group (teachers and/or students) * * 1 Source: Destination NSW, Orange LGA Profile YE September 2014

These figures show a high likelihood that backpacking visitors are a large percentage of the international visitor market.

31


Domestic Overnight Travel Key Measures

Domestic Overnight Travel Key Measures Orange NSW

Visitors (000's) 266 25,194

Nights (000's) 779 84,263

Average Length of Stay (nights) 2.9 3.3


Spend per visitor ($) 425 574

Spend per night ($) 145 172 Source: Destination NSW, Orange LGA Profile YE September 2014

Orange has a higher average spend per overnight visitor ($425) than Bathurst ($326) or Dubbo ($319) (Source: Destination NSW LGA Profile updated 22/5/16).

Purpose of Visit (visitors) 000's LGA % NSW %

Holiday 66 25 42

VFR 114 43 37

Business 62 23 17

Other 23 9 6 Source: Destination NSW, Orange LGA Profile YE September 2014

Purpose of Visit (nights) 000's LGA % NSW %

Holiday 144 18 47

VFR 304 39 35

Business 288 37 13

Other 43 5 5 Source: Destination NSW, Orange LGA Profile YE September 2014

Top 3 transport types (visitors) 000's LGA % NSW %

Private or company car 233 88 76

Rental Car * * 17

Aircraft * * 4 Source: Destination NSW, Orange LGA Profile YE September 2014

Of the domestic overnight visitors to Orange, the Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR) visitors are the overwhelming category of visitor with 43% of the market share. The VFR visitors are often in unpaid accommodation (staying with family or friends) which sometimes leads people to assume lesser levels of expenditure. Anecdotally, the money saved in accommodation expenditure is usually spent in the economy in other areas such as food or retail. Private or company cars are the overwhelming form of transport to get to Orange. Flights to and from Orange tend to be dominated by business visitors or locals on business trips.

Origin (visitors) 000's LGA % NSW %

Sydney 106 40 28

Regional NSW 121 45 41

Total Intrastate 226 85 68

Victoria * * 11

Queensland * * 11

ACT * * 5

Other Interstate 8 3 4

Total Interstate 40 15 32 Source: Destination NSW, Orange LGA Profile YE September 2014

Orange has more overnight travelers from Regional NSW (45%) than from Sydney (40%) for a total intrastate visitor total of 85%. Bathurst has a higher rate of visitation from Sydney (48%) and an intrastate visitation of 89% for overnight travelers. This shows Bathurst is more reliant on Sydney and NSW generally than Orange. Dubbo has an overnight visitation rate of 26% from Sydney and 47% from Regional NSW for a total intrastate visitation of 73%.

32


Origin (nights) 000's LGA % NSW %

Sydney 247 32 26

Regional NSW 257 33 36

Total Intrastate 505 65 62

Victoria * * 13

Queensland * * 14

ACT * * 5

Other Interstate 43 6 7

Total Interstate 275 35 38 Source: Destination NSW, Orange LGA Profile YE September 2014

Top 5 Activities (visitors) 000's LGA % NSW %

Eat out at restaurants 144 54 58

Visit friends and relatives 143 54 49

Go shopping (pleasure) 64 24 26

General sight seeing 58 22 25

Pubs clubs discos etc 47 18 22 Source: Destination NSW, Orange LGA Profile YE September 2014

The top 5 activities for overnight visitors should not be confused with ‘reasons for visit’. The table above lists what a visitor did when they got here, not why they came to Orange.

Top 5 Accommodation Types (nights) 000's LGA % NSW %

Friends or relatives property 331 42 39

Rented house, apartment, flat or unit * * 10

Hotel, resort, motel or motor in 176 23 25

Caravan park or commercial camping ground * * 13

Camping near road or on private property * * 4 Source: Destination NSW, Orange LGA Profile YE September 2014

Travel Party (visitors) 000's LGA % NSW %

Adult couple (in a relationship sense) 89 33 27

Travelling alone 69 26 26

Travelling with Children 61 23 26

Friends or relatives - without children 22 8 15

Business Associates * * 4


Age Group (visitors) 000's LGA % NSW %

15 - 24 years * * 15

25 - 34 years 34 13 17

35 - 44 years 47 18 18

45 - 54 years 53 20 19

55 - 64 years 55 20 16

65+ years 45 17 15 Source: Destination NSW, Orange LGA Profile YE September 2014

33


Domestic Day Travel Key Measures

Domestic Overnight Travel Key Measures Orange NSW

Visitors (000's) 494 52,212


Spend per visitor ($) 145 106

The domestic day visitors equates to over 1,350 people visiting Orange every day. This doesn’t include the people in the Journey to Work section of this document. The average spend of $145 per visit for people who are here for domestic day travel is significant, especially with the flow on effects in retail and medical employment. Historically, people have viewed overnight visitors as higher expenditure per head per day than day visitors. The table above shows the daily expenditure in Orange is $145 per day for day visitors. The corresponding table in the overnight visitors section shows an expenditure of $145 per day for overnight visitors, making day visitors just as valuable as overnight visitors on a per day basis. The spend per visitor for Orange is 37% higher than the NSW average.

Purpose of Visit 000's LGA % NSW %

Holiday 206 42 47

VFR 91 18 30

Business 71 14 11

Other 126 25 13

The data provided for the “Purpose of Visit” does not reflect the data captured in the Shop Orange campaign. This can be explained in a number of ways. The data in the Shop Orange campaign was captured from people shopping. The Top 5 Activities in the next column indicates only 43% of day travel visitors go shopping, so the two results are able to sit side-by-side.

Top 5 Origin Markets 000's LGA % NSW %

Central NSW 392 79 5

Sydney * * 42

Blue Mountains * * 3

Riverina * * 2

South Coast * * 9

Top 5 Activities (visitors) 000's LGA % NSW %

Eat out at restaurants 251 51 44

Go shopping (pleasure) 214 43 21

Visit friends and relatives 135 27 36

General sight seeing * * 15

Attend an organised sporting event * * 3

Age Group 000's LGA % NSW %

15 - 24 years * * 14

25 - 34 years * * 16

35 - 44 years 81 16 17

45 - 54 years 76 15 17

55 - 64 years 61 12 17

65+ years 101 20 19

34


Shop Orange data

During the latter half of 2015, Orange City Council undertook the Shop Orange campaign in conjunction with the Orange Business Chamber. The campaign was conducted over a six week period and offered a $500 a week to a lucky shopper drawn at random. To enter the competition, the shopper completed a survey and placed it in an entry box. The entry results were recorded and each of the participating businesses provided a copy of the results for their business, cluster and the entire campaign. The survey results from this competition are not considered statistically accurate as the entry forms were completed by people who self-nominated rather than people who were completely chosen at random. The results are good enough to identify trends and groups.

RESIDENT OR VISITOR

Total entries 6214 100%

Orange Residents Entries 4514 73%

Daytrip visitors Entries 1167 19%

Overnight Visitor Entries 291 5%

Did Not Respond to question 242 4% Source: Orange City Council Shop Orange data

The businesses involved in the Shop Orange promotion (67 businesses) did not include any supermarkets, department stores, discount department stores or major retail chains such as Woolworths or Westfarmers.

Day Visitors Of those people who were visiting Orange as a day visitor and entered the competition, the primary reason for the visit is listed below.

DAY VISITOR PRIMARY REASON FOR VISIT

Activity Shop Orange

DNSW

Shopping 43.4% *

Medical 16.5% *

Visiting Friends & Relatives 12.9% 18%

Work 9.6% 14%#

Sport 2.6% *

Business 2.2% 14#

Eisteddfod 1.6% *

Visit (holiday) 1.6% 42%

Other 9.7% 25% # These categories have been combined for DNSW figures * There is insufficient data to report on this category

The Shop Orange data shows that just under half of all day visitors to Orange who responded to the survey came here for the primary purpose of shopping. A further 16.5% of respondent day visitor shoppers were primarily here for a medical reason but took the opportunity to go shopping. Of particular note is that the DNSW figures have 42% of day visitors coming to Orange for a holiday, yet this is only 1.6% of responses in the survey.

35

Orange Economic Profile 2017 The postcode indicated by day visitors was recorded from each entry. The

top twenty postcodes and the number of respondents are listed below.

2795 Bathurst 148 2865 Manildra 36

2866 Molong 131 2830 Dubbo 33

2798 Millthorpe 114 2820 Wellington 31

2799 Blayney 101 2800 Orange surrounds 26

2870 Parkes 87 2867 Cumnock 26

2871 Forbes 63 2806 Eugowra 21

2794 Cowra 61 2792 Mandurama 12

2864 Cudal 45 2868 Yeoval 11

2877 Condobolin 40 2790 Lithgow 10

2804 Canowindra 38 2875 Trundle 10

Based on the above day visitor postcodes and years of anecdotal evidence, the service area of Orange is considered to be 100km to the east and 150km to the west. Based on the ERP listed earlier in this document, the effective service area of Orange would be 246,345. Prior to conducting the Shop Orange campaign, the service area was generally only considered to be to the west of the city. Overnight Visitors The overnight visitors to Orange have a different range of triggers for visiting. The primary reason of visiting friends and relatives is a variation of only 3.4% for the Shop Orange data and the DNSW data, strongly indicating the results for the Shop Orange data are statistically valid.

Primary reason for visit Shop Orange DNSW

Visiting Friends & Relatives (VFR) 39.6% 43%

Visit (Holiday) 17.5% 25%

Work 12.4% 23%#

Medical 10.4% *

Shopping 5.8% *

Eisteddfod 2.9% *

Business 2.9% 23%#

Food/Wine 1.2% *

Other 7.2% 9% # These categories have been combined for DNSW figures * There is insufficient data to report on this category

36


Land and Property Information

Rental Accommodation

The median weekly rental for a three bedroom house in Orange in the March quarter of 2016 was $320 while for a four bedroom house, the median weekly rental was $400. Although rental rates in Orange have fallen following completion of local major construction projects in 2013, weekly rentals for houses in Orange are generally higher than in other LGAs in the region. The median weekly rental for a one bedroom flat in Orange in the March quarter of 2016 was $220 while for a two bedroom flat the median weekly rental was $250. Weekly rental rates for flats in Orange are generally higher than for other LGAs in the region despite a fall in median rental rates over the past year.

Mar-16

House Flats/Units

Two

Bedrooms Three

Bedrooms Four

Bedrooms One

Bedroom Two

Bedrooms

Orange 280 320 400 220 250

Bathurst 260 320 410 190 250

Dubbo 280 315 382 200 230

Cabonne - 250 - - -

Blayney - 285 318 - -

Source: Housing NSW, 2016

Change Mar-15 to Mar-16

House Flats/Units

Two

Bedrooms Three

Bedrooms Four

Bedrooms One

Bedroom Two

Bedrooms

Orange 12.0% 6.7% 0.0% 10.0% 8.7%

Bathurst -3.7% -3.0% 2.5% 8.6% 0.0%

Dubbo 9.8% 1.6% 0.5% -2.4% 4.5% Source: Housing NSW, 2016

While not now achieving the record rents recorded in the 2011 to 2013 period, the Orange rental market has corrected itself and is again seeing growth across most segments of the market. Orange tends to have greater numbers of houses and units built than other regional locations, with demand often outstripping the construction industry ability to supply new dwellings. This has kept the rents at a reasonable of return for investors and renters since the peak of 2011 to 2013.


220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

Mar

-10

Au

g-1

0

Jan

-11

Jun

-11

No

v-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Sep

-12

Feb

-13

Jul-

13

De

c-1

3

May

-14

Oct

-14

Mar

-15

Au

g-1

5

Jan

-16

3 Bedroom Houses

Orange

Bathurst

Dubbo

37




Sydney Suburb Price Comparison

Weekly Rent (Mar-16) Rent v sales price

(Mar-16)

2 bed unit

3 bed house

4 bed house

Median Sales (000)

2 bed unit

3 bed house

4 bed house

Campbelltown $360 $410 $480 $531 28.37 24.91 21.27

Hornsby $510 $600 $700 $950 35.82 30.45 26.10

Liverpool $380 $480 $560 $650 32.89 26.04 22.32

Parramatta $430 $490 $600 $675 30.19 26.49 21.63

Penrith $320 $430 $530 $590 35.46 26.39 21.41

Strathfield $495 $700 $800 $792 30.77 21.76 19.04

Orange $250 $320 $400 $345 26.54 20.73 16.59 Source: Housing NSW, 2016

The rent versus sales price columns in the above table are a simplistic calculation of the number of years of rent it would take to make the sales price for the suburb. In all cases, Orange takes the least number of years rent to make the sales price. This makes Orange a logical place to make a real estate investment purchase.

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

Mar

-10

Au

g-1

0

Jan

-11

Jun

-11

No

v-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Sep

-12

Feb

-13

Jul-

13

De

c-1

3

May

-14

Oct

-14

Mar

-15

Au

g-1

5

Jan

-16

4 Bedroom Houses

Orange

Bathurst

Dubbo

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

Mar

-10

Au

g-1

0

Jan

-11

Jun

-11

No

v-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Sep

-12

Feb

-13

Jul-

13

De

c-1

3

May

-14

Oct

-14

Mar

-15

Au

g-1

5

Jan

-16

2 Bedroom Units/Flats

Orange

Bathurst

Dubbo

38


Median Sales Price

NSW Housing Data The median sales price for all dwellings in Orange in the December quarter of 2016 was $335,000. At the same time, the median sales price in the proximate LGAs of Blayney and Cabonne were $271,000 and $273,000 respectively. The median sales price in Cabonne and Blayney experience wild fluctuations due to comparatively low numbers of sales in each quarter.


Compared with metropolitan areas, housing purchases are more affordable in Orange. Data from the 2011 Census indicates that average household mortgage repayments in Orange represent approximately 28% of average household income compared with 31% for the Rest of NSW.


Both Orange and Bathurst have traditionally traded places with each other for the higher median sales price. Figures from NSW Housing show this occurring all the way back to 2001. Based on these trends, the Orange median sales price will continue to increase over 2016 while the Bathurst price is likely to soften or hold steady. 150

200

250

300

350

400

Mar

-10

Au

g-1

0

Jan

-11

Jun

-11

No

v-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Sep

-12

Feb

-13

Jul-

13

De

c-1

3

May

-14

Oct

-14

Mar

-15

Au

g-1

5

Median Sales Price

Orange

Cabonne

Blayney

200

250

300

350

400

Mar

-10

Au

g-1

0

Jan

-11

Jun

-11

No

v-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Sep

-12

Feb

-13

Jul-

13

De

c-1

3

May

-14

Oct

-14

Mar

-15

Au

g-1

5

Median Sales Price

Orange

Bathurst

Dubbo

39


Rural property values

The average value of tablelands grazing property increased by almost

11% between 2011 and 2012 with an average value per hectare of just

over $6,000 in 2012. Values in selected other localities in the region fell

between 2011 and 2012 and are generally lower than those in Orange,

although variations in property size are likely to impact on average values

per hectare.

The average value of hobby farm sites in Orange and other selected

localities in the region remained unchanged between 2011 and 2012. The

average value per hectare in Orange was $12,657, higher than was found

in Bathurst ($11,940) and Dubbo ($6,035) where the average size of

landholding is similar.

The average value of rural home sites in Orange increased by almost 10%

between 2011 and 2012 whilst values in other selected localities

remained stable over the same period. The average value of rural home

sites in Orange in 2012 was just over $135,000, significantly higher than

in Bathurst ($112,600) where the average property size is similar.

Average value of rural properties, 2012

Ha Average Value

($'000) Average Value per Ha

($)

Tablelands Grazing

Orange 238 1,430 6,008

Bathurst 683 2,090 3,060

Mudgee 943 717 760

Oberon 191 584 3,058

Hobby Farm Sites

Orange 39.9 505 12,657

Bathurst 40.2 480 11,940

Mudgee 10.1 254 25,149

Lithgow 13.1 331 25,267

Dubbo 40.1 242 6,035

Rural Home Sites

Orange 2.2 294 135,484

Bathurst 2.5 277 112,602

Dubbo 10.1 178 17,624

Source: NSW Land and Property Information, 2013

40


Commercial property values

The average value of a retail shop site in Orange with a frontage of 4.9

metres in 2012 was $226,000. This equates to an average of $46,100 per

metre. This represents a 10% increase since 2011.

Values in Orange were generally higher than surrounding localities being

7% higher than Bathurst, 33% higher than Mudgee and 60% higher than

Dubbo.

Retail rental rates in a prime CBD location in Orange are also higher than

elsewhere in the region. Prime rental rates in Orange start at around

$550 per square metre per annum compared with $485 in Bathurst and

$380 in Dubbo.

Value of a single shop site

Frontage (m) Average value Average value per metre

Orange 4.9 $226,000 $46,122

Bathurst 5.4 $232,000 $42,963

Dubbo 6.4 $184,500 $28,828

Lithgow 4.5 $90,000 $20,000

Mudgee 5.3 $184,000 $34,717

Parkes 6.6 $73,000 $11,061

Source: NSW Land & Property Information

41


Motor vehicle registrations

Motor vehicle registrations in Orange City Council

At March 2016 there were a total of 43,133 motor vehicles, including

trailers, registered in Orange. Between 2011 and 2016, the total

number of registered vehicles increased by an average of 3.2% per

annum.

The largest increase in motor vehicle registrations was in rigid trucks,

with registrations increasing by an average of 4.9% per annum

between 2011 and 2016 and growing by 6.5% in the past year. Prime

movers grew by 18.5% over the past year.

Overall, the number of registered passenger vehicles and motor cycles

per head of population in Orange has increased from 0.54 in 2008 to an

estimated 0.59 in 2013, remaining steady at 0.59 since 2013

Motor Vehicle Registrations in Orange

Orange 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Change 2011-16

Change 2015-16

Passenger Vehicles

21,231 21,881 22,625 22,854 23,332 23,876 2,645 544

Motor cycles &scooters

1,291 1,322 1,417 1,475 1,535 1,543 252 8

Small Buses & people movers

442 474 502 484 480 478 36 -2

Heavy Buses

89 102 76 86 88 87 -2 -1

Rigid Trucks

6,092 6,333 6,635 6,930 7,238 7,738 1,646 500

Plant

72 65 55 61 61 60 -12 -1

Prime movers

216 195 158 172 212 260 44 48

Heavy Trailers*

3,063 3,134 314 315 441 524

Light Trailers*

4,422 4,452 7,545 7,907 8,157 8,567

Trailers combined*

7,485 7,586 7,859 8,222 8,598 9,091 1,606 493

Total Registrations

36,918 37,958 39,327 40,284 41,544 43,133 4,609 1,096

Passenger Vehicles & Motorcycles per capita

0.57 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.59

*The end of 2012 saw trailers categorised differently by the RMS. The “Trailers Combined” category has been created from the RMS data for continuity purposes.

Source: NSW Roads and Maritime Services 2016

42


Motor vehicle registrations in the OCB region

Motor Vehicle Registrations in the OCB region

OCB Region 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Change 2011-2016

Change 2015-2016

Passenger Vehicles

32,640 33,549 34,538 34,894 35,453 36,038 3,398 585

Motor cycles &scooters

1,994 2,047 2,205 2,318 2,410 2,428 434 18

Small Buses & people movers

680 707 740 725 746 706 26 -40

Heavy Buses

157 175 133 146 148 146 -11 -2

Rigid Trucks

10,796 11,136 11,616 12,046 12,524 13,210 2,414 686

Plant

166 142 138 136 136 133 -33 -3

Prime movers

405 385 305 325 379 444 39 65

Heavy Trailers*

5,476 5,653 621 617 778 897

Light Trailers*

7,652 7,738 13,373 13,945 14,427 15,148

Trailers combined*

13,128 13,391 13,994 14,562 15,205 16,045 2,917 660

Total Registrations

59,966 61,532 63,669 65,152 67,001 69,150 6,740 1,476

Passenger Vehicles & Motorcycles per capita

0.58 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.60

*The end of 2012 saw trailers categorised differently by the RMS. The “Trailers Combined” category has been created from the RMS data for continuity purposes.

Source: NSW Roads and Maritime Services 2016

At March 2016 there were a total of 69,150 motor vehicles, including

trailers, registered in the OCB region. Between 2011 and 2016, the

total number of registered vehicles increased by an average of 2.9%

per annum.

The largest increase in motor vehicle registrations was in rigid trucks

with registrations increasing by an average of 4.1% per annum

between 2011 and 2016 and growing by 5.2% in the past year.

The number of registered passenger vehicles and motor cycles per

capita in Orange and the Orange-Cabonne-Blayney region is

significantly higher than the State average.

43


Climate and geography

Average climatic conditions - Orange

Source: Bureau of Meteorology, 2013

The Orange Post Office is located 863 metres above mean sea level. The

coordinates for the Orange Post Office are -33.283793 and 149.100162. The

highest ground point in the city is on Dairy Hill at a height of 920 metres. The

lowest ground point in the city is adjacent to the Mitchell Highway (Molong

Road) and Northern Distributor Road is 826 metres.

Orange is situated on the western side of the Central Tablelands of NSW.

Data from the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that average annual rainfall

in Orange approximates 930mm with peak rainfall occurring in the month of

August (98.3mm). The month with the lowest rainfall is April, with an

average of 51.4mm.

The mean maximum temperature across the year in Orange is 18OC. The

months of January, February and December record the highest mean

maximum temperatures at 26.60C, 25.60C and 24.30C respectively.

The mean minimum temperature across the year in Orange is 7.20C. July,

August and June record the lowest mean minimum temperatures at 1.50C,

2.10C and 2.60C respectively.

Orange regularly experiences snow for a few days each winter. Orange also

has frosts throughout the winter.

0

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120

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25

30

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Jul

Au

g

Sep Oct

No

v

Dec

Mean rainfall (mm)

Mean temperature

(°C)

Mean max (°C) Mean min (°C) Mean rainfall (mm)