HawaiianIslands (USA)

GLOBAL STRESS POINTS*Events posing the greatest threat tothe global economy in 2006

Event Impact(0-100)

Likelihood(0-100)

Oil price shock 70 50

Avian flu pandemic 55 55

Terrorists detonate dirty bomb 45 50

Instability in Central Asia 35 65

50 35War on Korean peninsula

War between China and Taiwan 70 20

20 65Serious disruption in the Balkans

Nationalist regime in Russia 30 30

25 30Financial collapse in Philippines

Collapse of euro 40 20

Islamisation of Pakistan 20 30

Fall of House of Saud inSaudi Arabia

35 15

Civil war in Iraq 25 20

U.S. strike on Iran 25 20

New sovereign default inArgentina

20 25

Drawing upon a worldwide network of more than 1,000 scholar-experts,Oxford Analytica’s Global Stress Points Matrix™ provides constantlyupdated assessments of the greatest threats to the global economy.The above analysis was current as of December 2005. For more recentanalysis, visit www.oxan.com.

*Patent pending

Gulf of A

den

Red Sea

The Gul f

Car ibbean Sea

NorthSea

TimorSea

TasmanSea

East S iber ian Sea

Ber ing Sea

EastChina

Sea

SouthChina

Sea

PACIFIC OCEAN

Mediterranean

Sea

Caspian Sea

Bay of Bengal

Arabian Sea

BlackSea

Gulf of Mexico

PACIFIC OCEAN

ATLANTIC OCEAN

INDIAN OCEAN

ARCTIC OCEAN

Sea ofOkhotsk

Barents Sea

Kara SeaLaptev Sea

Norwegian Sea

Beaufort Sea

Hudson Bay

Baffin Bay

Davis Strait

SOUTHERN OCEANScotia Sea

Ascension Island (UK)

St. Helena (UK)

ATLANTIC OCEAN

NetherlandsAntilles (NL)

FalklandIslands (UK)

Reunion Islands (Fr)

CaymanIslands (UK)

New Caledonia (Fr)

SAO TOME & PRINCIPE

Tahiti

Symbols illustrating significant risksCountry risk level

KEY

Low risk

Medium-low risk

Medium risk

Medium-high risk

High risk

POLITICAL INTERFERENCE:

SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION:

EXCHANGE TRANSFER:

SOVEREIGN NON-PAYMENT:

LEGAL & REGULATORY RISK:

Very high risk

Non Rated

Line of Control

POLITICAL VIOLENCE:

RISK OF DOING BUSINESS:

BANKING SECTOR VULNERABILITY:

INABILITY OF GOVERNMENT TO PROVIDE STIMULUS:

FOOD:

WATER:

GUYANA

FRENCH GUIANA (FR)

Cabinda (Angola)

Melilla (Sp)

Gibraltar (UK)Ceuta (Sp)

C A N A D A

U N I T E D S T A T E SO F A M E R I C A

M E X I C O

BELIZE

NICARAGUA

EL SALVADOR

HONDURAS

GUATEMALA

COSTA RICA

PANAMA

HAITI

DOMINICAN REP

JAMAICA

ANTIGUA & BARBUDAVIRGIN ISLANDS (US and UK)

DOMINICAANGUILLA

BARBADOS

GRENADA

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO

SURINAME

VENEZUELA

COLOMBIA

ECUADOR

PERU

BOLIVIA

B R A Z I L

PARAGUAY

URUGUAY

ARGENTINAC H I L E

G R E E N L A N D

ICELAND

UNITEDKINGDOMIRELAND

FRANCE

SPAIN

PORTUGAL

GERMANY

ITALY

DENMARK

NETHERLANDS

BELGIUM

LUXEMBOURG

LIECHTENSTEIN

SWITZERLAND

MONACOSAN MARINO

VATICANANDORRA

CZECH REPSLOVAKIA

AUSTRIA

HUNGARYSLOVENIA

POLAND

UKRAINE

BELARUS

LITHUANIA

LATVIA

ESTONIA

FINLAND

ROMANIA

MONTENEGRO

MOLDOVA

BULGARIA

BOSNIA

ALBANIA

SERBIA

F.Y.R. MACEDONIA

GREECE

MALTA

CROATIA

CYPRUSLEBANON

PALESTINE

ISRAEL

SYRIA

JORDAN

TURKEY

EGYPT

LIBYAALGERIA

TUNISIA

MALI

Western Sahara

NIGER

CHAD

SUDAN

SOUTHSUDAN

MAURITANIA

MOROCCO

CAPE VERDE

BURKINAFASO

BENIN

CAMEROON

GABON

CENTRALAFRICAN REPUBLIC

NIGERIA

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICOF CONGO

UGANDA

ZAMBIA

NAMIBIA

BOTSWANA

ZIMBABWE

SOUTHAFRICA

TANZANIA

MADAGASCAR

MOZAMBIQUE

ETHIOPIA

YEMEN

UAE

OMAN

BAHRAIN

QATAR

KUWAIT

SAUDIARABIA

I N D I A

BHUTAN

BURMA (MYANMAR)

SRI LANKA

MALDIVES

SEYCHELLES

COMOROS

MAURITIUS

THAILAND

CAMBODIA

VIETNAM

MACAUHONG KONG

SINGAPORE

BRUNEI

R U S S I A

K A Z A K H S T A N

M O N G O L I A

C H I N A

UZBEKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

AFGHANISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

KYRGYZSTANAZERBAIJAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA

PAKISTAN

IRAN

IRAQ

MALAYSIA

INDONESIA

JAPAN

NORTH KOREA

SOUTH KOREA

TAIWAN

PHILIPPINES

MICRONESIA

PALAU

GUAM

PAPUA NEWGUINEA

TIMOR LESTE

SOLOMON ISLANDS

VANUATU

FIJI

NEW ZEALAND

SAMOA

NIUE (NZ)FRENCH

POLYNESIA

TONGA

A U S T R A L I A

KIRIBATI

TUVALU

NAURU

Alaska (US)

TOGO

GHANA

CONGO

ANGOLA

CUBA

DJIBOUTI

ERITREA

LAOS

NEPAL

BANGLADESH

SOMALIA

KENYA

SOUTH SUDAN

EQ GUINEA

GAMBIA

GUINEA BISSAU

LESOTHO

LIBERIA

BURUNDI

RWANDA

MALAWI

SENEGAL

SIERRA LEONE

SWAZILAND

COTE D'IVOIRE

PUERTO RICO (US)

SWEDEN

NORWAY

ST. KITTS & NEVIS

ST. LUCIA

ST. VINCENT

BAHAMAS

Anchorage

Vancouver

Seattle

San Francisco

Los AngelesDallas

HoustonNew Orleans

Washington, D.C.

New York

Boston

Toronto

Chicago

OttawaMontréal

Guadalajara

Mexico City

Belmopan

Guatemala

San Salvador

Managua

Tegucigalpa

San JoséPanama

Miami

Havana

Kingston

Port-au-Prince

SantoDomingo

Caracas

Georgetown Paramaribo

Cayenne

Quito

Bogotá

Lima

La Paz

Santiago

Buenos AiresMontevideo

Asunción

Rio de Janeiro

São Paulo

Brasilia

Salvador

Fortaleza

Cape Town

Johannesburg

PretoriaGaborone

Maputo

Harare

Lusaka

Lilongwe

Dar-es-Salaam

Bujumbura

KigaliNairobi

Kampala

Windhoek

Luanda

Brazzaville

Kinshasa

Libreville

YaoundéBangui

Mogadishu

Addis Ababa

Antananarivo

GUINEAFreetown

MonroviaAbidjan Accra

Lomé

Bissau

Conakry

BanjulDakar

Nouakchott

El Aaiun

Rabat

Algiers

Tunis

Tripoli

Cairo

Khartoum

N'Djamena

NiameyBamako

Lisbon

Madrid

Paris

Bern

London

Dublin Berlin

Copenhagen

Prague

Rome

Sarajevo

Belgrade Bucharest

Athens

Warsaw

Kaliningrad(Russia)

StockholmOslo Helsinki

Tallinn

Riga

Vilnius

St Petersburg

Minsk

Kiev

Ankara

BeirutDamascus

AmmanTel Aviv

Sana

Mecca

Jeddah

Muscat

Abu DhabiRiyadh

Baghdad

Baku

Tehran

Ashkhabad

Kabul Islamabad

Dushanbe

Tashkent

Bishkek

Astana

Novosibirsk

Karachi

Delhi

Mumbai

Kolkata

Katmandu

Dhaka

Naypyitaw

Bangkok

Thimphu

Vientiane

Phnom Penh

Hanoi

Wuhan

Beijing

Ulan Bator

Pyongyang

Seoul

Vladivostock

Tokyo

Osaka

Shanghai

Taipei

Manila

Kuala Lumpur

Jakarta

Dili

Darwin

Brisbane

Sydney

Canberra

Melbourne

Adelaide

Perth

Port Moresby

Auckland

Wellington

Christchurch

Colombo

Moscow

Bermuda (UK)

Godthåb

Honiara

Reykjavik

Azores (Port)

Madeira (Port)

The Canaries (Sp)

Guadeloupe (Fr)

GalapagosIslands (Ecuador)

Québec

Brussels

Amsterdam

Vienna Budapest

Sofia

ZagrebLjubljana

Bratislava

Kishinev

Yerevan

Tbilisi

Porto-NovoLagos

Ouagadougou

2015 Political Risk Map

Aon's political risk experts use a combination of market experience, innovative analysis tools and tailored risk transfer programmes to help you minimise your exposure to political risks. Aon designs risk transfer

and management programmes to respond to adverse political actions, providing balance sheet protection and business facilitation. Political and security risk assessments are also available, allowing you to make

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Sri Lanka

Indonesia

ChinaIndia

Iraq

Gulf ofAden

U.S. West Coast

Argentina

SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION RISKS

This map shows events that have caused disruption in global supply chains. The chief components of loss are business interruption and extra expense resulting from relocated production or alternative sourcing.This map is for illustration only.

Canada

U.S. Gulf of Mexico

Washington, DC

London

BosporusStrait

Brazil

Thailand

Taiwan

EU

Suez Canal MalaccaStrait

Panama Canal

South Korea

RECENT SUPPLY CHAINDISRUPTION EVENTS

Argentina: Financial crisis caused supplier insolvency

Canada: Canadian rail strike

China: SARS outbreak

EU: Blockage of Chinese textile imports

Gulf of Aden: Terrorist attack on oil tanker

Iraq: Iraq war

Suez Canal: Tanker breakdown blocked canal

Thailand, Sri Lanka and Indonesia: Asian tsunami

U.S. Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Katrina

U.S. West Coast: Longshoreman strike

KEY SUPPLY CHAINDISRUPTION THREATS

Bosporus Strait, Malacca Strait, Panama Canal& Suez Canal: Terrorist attacks or maritime piracy

Brazil: Labour unrest and infastructure failures

China: Bird flu outbreak

China: Financial crisis causing supplier insolvency

India: Political instability

South Korea: War on Korean peninsula

Taiwan: China-Taiwan hostilities

Washington, D.C. and London:Restrictions on outsourcing

COMMODITY CRUNCHEXPOSURE MATRIXVolatility in global commodity prices in the 1970s and early 1980s contributed to political and economic instability in a number of countries. What countries are vulnerable in 2009 if commodity prices continue to fall, as some forecasters suggest?

VULNERABILITY INDICATORS

Angola

Argentina

Bahrain

Bolivia

Congo

Côte d’Ivoire

Ecuador

Guinea

Iran

Iraq

Kazakhstan

Nigeria

Norway

Pakistan

Papua New Guinea

Peru

Russian Federation

Saudi Arabia

Suriname

Tajikistan

Thailand

Trinidad and Tobago

Ukraine

Venezuela

Zimbabwe

Co

mm

odit

y C

run

chEx

pos

ure

Leve

l

Relia

nce

on

Co

mm

odit

yEx

por

ts

Exp

ort

Pric

eVo

lati

lity

Inst

abili

ty R

isk

SOVEREIGN DEFAULT RISKThe countries shown are of concern to political risk underwriters as being at potential risk of sovereign default in 2009. Selected indicators of default vulnerability are also shown.

VULNERABILITY INDICATORS

Argentina

Bolivia

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

Georgia

Kyrgyzstan

Pakistan

Philippines

Romania

Tajikistan

Ukraine

Venezuela

Zimbabwe

An

alys

tC

on

cern

Exte

rnal

Deb

tO

blig

atio

ns

Cur

rent

Acc

ount

Defi

cit

Econ

omic

Polic

y Ri

sk

FOOD AND WATER INSECURITY INDEX

Angola

Argentina

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Brazil

China

Congo

Dominican Rep.

Ecuador

Gabon

Gambia

Ghana

Guinea

India

Ivory Coast

Kazakhstan

Liberia

Libya

Nigeria

Pakistan

Russia

Saudi Arabia

Senegal

Sierra Leone

Syria

Turkey

Uganda

Ukraine

Venezuela

Yemen

Ove

rall

Ran

kin

g

Wat

er In

secu

rity

an

d C

urre

nt

Stre

ss

Food

Inse

curi

ty

and

Cur

ren

t St

ress

Glo

bal

War

min

g

Vul

ner

abili

ty

Since 1990, global population growth has outpaced growth in global agricultural output. In the future, climate change may threaten both water resources and agricultural productivity. The Aon/Oxford Analytica Food and Water Insecurity Index assesses countries' vulnerability to disruptions in food and water supplies, combining 20 statistical indicators representing water insecurity, food insecurity, vulnerability to global warming, current levels of food/water stress and a country's capacity to react and adapt to unexpected food/water disruptions or shocks. The table below represents Aon's 'Top 30', based on those countries for which there has been the greatest number of requests for Political Risk insurance during 2009. It is not an exhaustive list; other countries for which Aon has seen a high demand for Political Risk cover include Afghanistan, Algeria, Benin, Bolivia, Colombia, Egypt, Georgia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Iraq, Kenya, Lebanon, Mexico, Peru, Philippines,Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thailand, Togo, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.

48

135

39

156

163

69

95

119

137

102

4

81

131

45

146

140

42

8

97

41

91

104

3

105

33

70

134

54

88

17

AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY SUPPLY RISK

Cocoa

Maize

Rice

Sugar Cane

Coffee

Sorghum

Wheat

Sugar Beet

Barley

Risk

Ran

kin

g

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Indonesia

China

Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand, Indonesia, China, Vietnam, India

Pakistan, Thailand, China, India, Mexico

Ethiopia, Colombia, Uganda, Indonesia, Vietnam, India, Mexico, GuatemalaSudan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, China, India, Mexico

Pakistan, Russia, China, India

Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, China

Iran, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, China, Spain

Sourcing Countries Most at Risk Other Primary Producers

Ghana

Brazil, USA

Brazil

Brazil

USA

France, USA

France, Germany, Poland, USASpain, France, Canada, Germany

Global agricultural supplies may be disrupted by many factors, including political violence, natural disasters, water insecurity and global warming. Aon and Oxford Analytica have developed assessments of supply disruption risk for more than 170 countries and nine agricultural commodities. Below, key commodities are ranked by the degree to which world supplies are concentrated in countries facing disruption risks. Also listed are other lower-risk 'Primary Producers' accounting for more than 5% of global production.

SOVEREIGN PAYMENT RISK PERCEPTIONSSOVEREIGN PAYMENT RISK PERCEPTIONSThese graphs display the shifts in market perceptions of sovereign payment risks for key

countries, based on conditions in trade credit and political risk insurance markets.

-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Dominican Republic

Latin America

MexicoBrazil

20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

Indonesia

Far East

Philippines

-180%-160%-140%-120%-100%

-80%-60%-40%-20%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%120%140%160%180%

GhanaEgyptAngola

20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

Africa

-100%-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Russian FederationRomania

Russia & CIS

KazakhstanAzerbaijan

20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

PhilippinesIndonesia

Philippines Indonesia

Far East

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

Romania Russian FederationKazakhstan

Russia & CIS

Azerbaijan

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

Angola Egypt Ghana

Africa

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

Brazil Mexico Dominican Republic

Latin America

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000

Countries Region Election 1 typeElection 1

dateElection 2

typeElection 2 date

Election 3 type

Election 3 date

Election 4 type

Election 4 date

Algeria

Africa

Legislative 2012

Gambia Legislative 24/03/12

Guinea Bissau Parliamentary 2012

Sierra Leone Legislative Aug-12 Presidential 17/11/12

Angola Parliamentary Sep-12

Burkina Faso Parliamentary May-12

Cameroon Legislative Jul-12

Congo Braz-zaville

Legislative 2012

Equatorial Guinea

Parliamentary 2012

Ghana Presidential Dec-12 Legislative Dec-12

Kenya Presidential (First Round)

14/08/12 Parliamentary 14/08/12

Lesotho Parliamentary 2012

Madagascar Presidential (Tentative)

Mar-12 Parliamentary (Tentative)

Mar-12

Mali Presidential (First Round)

29/04/12 Presidential (Second Round)

13/05/12 Parliamentary (First Round)

01/07/12 Parliamentary (Second Round)

22/07/12

Senegal Presidential 26/02/12 Parliamentary 2012

Sudan Referendum (Postponed)

2012

Togo Parliamentary 2012

Zambia Referendum 2012

Zimbabwe Parliamentary (Tentative)

2012 Referendum (Tentative)

2012

Egypt

Middle East

Parliamentary 03/01/12 Legislative -- First Round

22/01/12 Presidential Mar-12

Syria Legislative (Tentative)

Feb-12

Iran Parliamentary 29/03/12

Palestine Presidential 04/05/12 Parliamentary 04/05/12

Yemen Presidential 21/02/12

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Africa & Middle East selected elections of interest

Region Country Election Election

Africa Angola Parliamentary – September 2012

Algeria Legislative – May 2012

Burkina Faso Parliamentary – May 2012

Cameroon Legislative – July 2012

Congo Brazzaville Legislative – 2012

Equatorial Guinea Parliamentary – 2012

Gambia Legislative – 29 March 2012

Ghana Presidential – December 2012 Legislative – December 2012

Guinea Bissau Parliamentary - 2012 Presidential – April 2012

Lesotho Parliamentary – February 2012

Madagascar Presidential (Tentative) – March 2012 Parliamentary (Tentative) – March 2012

Mali Presidential – 29 April & 13 May 2012 Parliamentary – 1 July & 22 July 2012

Senegal Presidential – 26 February 2012 Parliamentary – 17 June 2012

Sierra Leone Legislative – November 2012 Presidential – 17 November 2012

Sudan Referendum (Postponed) – 2012

Togo Parliamentary – October 2012

Zambia Referendum – 2012

Zimbabwe Parliamentary (Tentative) – 2012 Referendum (Tentative) - 2012

Middle East Egypt Presidential – March 2012

Iran Parliamentary 29 March 2012

Palestine Presidential – 4 May 2012 Parliamentary – 4 May 2012

Syria Legislative (Tentative) – February 2012

Yemen Presidential – 21 February 2012 (Tentative)

Dates correct at time of print - January 2012