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2015: A perfect storm? Political and social trends in Tanzania. Ben Taylor f or Society for International Development Copenhagen November 12, 2013. Global. Regional. Corruption. Religion?. Media. Human rights. Public services. Demo-graphics. Natural resources. Growth. Party politics. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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2015: A perfect storm?
Political and social trends in Tanzania
Ben Taylorfor Society for International Development
CopenhagenNovember 12, 2013
Tanzania
Global Regional
Natural resources
Tax
Poverty
Public services
Growth
Demo-graphics
Party politicsReligion
?
Media
Human rights
Constitution
Corruption
International Politics
Global
International Politics
Regional
Economics
Growth
Source: Afrobarometer survey, 2012
Economics
Growth
Source: Afrobarometer surveys, 2002-2012
Economics
Poverty
Source: Investments to End Poverty (Development Initiatives)
Tax
AidFDI
Remittances
Economics
Tax
Source: HakiElimu
Economics
Tax
Source: Kipanya
The government has no money, Kipanya! And you think even paying 1,000
shillings is an issue?
Economics
Tax
$3bn in 2020 Estimate based on IMF projections of government revenue from natural gas
Source: TMAA / IMF
Economics
Natural Resources
Source: 2012 Census
Society
Demo-graphics
Source: UN
Society
Demo-graphics
Source: shule.info
Society
Public Services
Society
Public Services
National Politics
Corruption
National Politics
Constitution
Political rightsNational
Politics
Human Rights
National Politics
Media
National Politics
Media
National Politics
Media
National Politics
Religion?
National Politics
Party politics
National Politics
Party politics
data from 2001-2003 is speculative, based on a different survey question
National Politics
Party politics
Asanteni
Ben Taylor@mtega
www.mtega.com
www.twaweza.org
2015: Tanzania’s
perfect storm?
Looking east
Tax and gas, not aid
Strain on land & public
services
Reduced political space
Increased political
competition
