Upload
thien-nguyen
View
22
Download
7
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
abcGlobal Research
Chinese exports improve, but fixed asset
investment slows and CPI falls below 2%
Asian central banks on hold for now, but tightening bias evident, except Thailand
New in this issue: momentum heatmaps and indispensable China data dashboard
Not quite there With Lunar New Year distortions dropping out of the data,
March and April provided the first clean read on economic
momentum in Asia. The verdict: no real sign of a bounce. In
China, investment slowed further last month and loan growth
spluttered. Across the region, exports also disappointed,
better data in the West notwithstanding. In Thailand, political
turmoil is starting to take a greater toll on growth.
But, it’s not all discouraging. In Japan, the initial signs are that
the economy is taking the sales tax hike in its stride. Producers
appear quite optimistic about a rebound in the coming months.
The Bank of Japan also struck a confident note, leading many
observers, including us, to push back expectations of further
easing. Meanwhile, in Australia, better employment data and
robust building approvals also suggest underlying strength.
Inflation continues to be subdued across much of Asia. One
exception is India, where the CPI ticked up last month. The
persistence of price pressures, despite weaker growth, raises
the chance of another rate hike by the central bank. With a
new administration set to take the reins shortly, however, it
may get trickier for the RBI to deliver this. An added risk is
that the monsoon this year may deliver below average rainfall,
which could put upward pressures on agricultural prices.
Central banks in Australia, Korea, Indonesia, and Malaysia held
rates in recent weeks. So did the BSP in the Philippines, even
if it raised the reserve requirement ratio. In New Zealand, as
expected, officials raised the cash rate. Across the region, the
various statements had a hawkish tint, hinting at some (gentle)
tightening to come in the next several quarters. Thailand, alas,
is an exception: with political uncertainty still elevated, and
fiscal policy out of commission, another cut may seems likely.
Check out our new heatmaps and China dashboard inside!
Macro Asian Economics
On top of the data
Following the flow in Asia
15 May 2014 Frederic Neumann Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2822 4556 [email protected]
Ronald Man Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2996 6743 [email protected]
Joseph Incalcaterra Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2822 4687 [email protected]
Rini Sen Economics Associate Bangalore
View HSBC Global Research at: http://www.research.hsbc.com
Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
Disclaimer & Disclosures This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it
2
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
What’s New 3
PMI Heatmaps 5
Indicators 11 GDP 12
Industrial Production 13
Exports 14
Consumer Spending 15
Headline CPI 16
Core CPI 17
Asset Prices 18
Money & Credit 19
Rates 20
Foreign Exchange 21
Global indicators 22
G7 Indicators 23
Asia Electronics 24
Asia Major Events 25 Australia 26
China 27
Hong Kong 28
India 29
Indonesia 30
Japan 31
Korea 32
Malaysia 33
New Zealand 34
Philippines 35
Singapore 36
Sri Lanka 37
Taiwan 38
Thailand 39
Vietnam 40
Asia Brief 41
Momentum Heatmaps 42
Best of Asian economics research 44
Disclosure appendix 50
Disclaimer 51
Contents
3
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
What’s New Change in forecast – change in growth bias
Australia BIAS Retail sales, business confidence and export volumes have picked up further, while the labour market is continuing to improveNew Zealand BIAS New Zealand remains on track to post one of the strongest growth rates amongst the OECD economies China BIAS HSBC Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction in April. IP and FAI growth also eased pointing to downside risks to Q2 14 growthHong Kong BIAS Growth is expected to rise 3.6% y-o-y in Q1. However risks tilt to the downside owing to weak exports growth to slowing MainlandIndia BIAS Weak PMIs have increased downside risks to growth in the near term. A strong mandate government would lift medium-term growth biasIndonesia BIAS Monetary tightening is slowing growth as BI intended, and we retain our growth forecast of 5.2% for this year Japan BIAS Real household spending spiked 10.5% m-o-m sa in March, posing upside risks to our 8.7% q-o-q saar estimate in Q1 14 consumptionKorea BIAS Korea adopted the 2008 system of national accounts, which poses upside risks to our 3.2% 2014 GDP forecast on statistical groundsMalaysia BIAS We retain our view for growth forecast of 5.2% for this year. Domestic demand will moderate, but net exports should pick up the slackPhilippines BIAS Inflation rose 4.1% y-o-y in April from 3.9% in March; with output lower this year, prices will likely accelerate in the summer monthsSingapore BIAS Upside risk to growth following better-than-expected factory output and improving PMIsSri Lanka BIAS Upside risk to growth thanks to additional monetary policy stimulus this yearTaiwan BIAS Robust manufacturing and private consumption kept growth at 3.0% y-o-y in Q1, in line with our estimates for the full-yearThailand BIAS Political uncertainty poses downside risks to growth. Although household debt is high, we continue to expect one more cut from the BOTVietnam BIAS The headline PMI Index increased sharply to 53.1 in April from 51.3 in March. Output, new orders, and employment roseSource: HSBC
Data surprises
Australia Trimmed mean CPI increased by +2.6% y-o-y in Q1 (market had +2.9%)New Zealand Employment increased by +3.7% y-o-y in Q1 (market had +3.4% y-o-y)China April FAI growth ytd eased to 17.3% y-o-y (vs. BBG consensus 17.7%)Hong Kong Retail sales value fell 1.3% y-o-y in March vs. Bloomberg expectations of +7.4%India March IIP fell 0.5% y-o-y vs. consensus expectations of -1.5% y-o-y. April CPI came in slightly higher than expected (8.6% y-o-y vs. 8.5% consensus)Indonesia Q1 GDP was weaker than expected. Net trade subtracted more than we thought. Although consumption beat our forecast, investment was sub-trendJapan Real household spending spiked 7.2% y-o-y in March vs. consensus expectations of 2.0%Korea April export growth beat expectations, but the weaker new export orders suggest the strong momentum may be difficult to sustain Malaysia The trade surplus widened more than expected to MYR9.6bn in March. Imports were weaker, while exports were stronger than expectedPhilippines The BSP raised the RRR by 1 ppt to 20%; S&P upgraded the Philippines to BBB ratingSingapore March industrial production rose 12.1% y-o-y (vs. consensus expectation of 6.4%). Mar CPI rose 1.2% y-o-y (vs. 1.1% consensus expectation)Sri Lanka April CPI inflation rose to 4.9% y-o-y, below consensus expectation of 5.0 % y-o-yTaiwan Export orders rose 5.9% y-o-y in March, up from 5.7% in the previous month and consensus expectations of 4.7% Thailand Exports and imports disappointed with 3.1% and 14.2% y-o-y contraction, respectively. Current account surplus surprised on the upside at USD2.9bnVietnam Inflation stayed steady at 4.4% y-o-y in April from 4.4% in MarchSource: Bloomberg, HSBC
Did you know? Time to pay up! Number of hours it takes to prepare and pay taxes (2013)
Source: World Bank, HSBC; NB: Time to prepare and pay taxes is the time, in hours per year, it takes to prepare, file, and pay (or withhold) the corporate income tax, the value added or sales tax, and labor taxes, including payroll taxes and social security contributions.
0
100
200
300
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
BR VN MX JA CH IT TH ID IN TU GE SL SA PH KR RU US NZ MA FR CA SW UK AU SI HK
World Av erage= 267
Vietnam = 872
Brazil = 2600
hours per y ear hours per y ear
4
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
This page has intentionally been left blank.
5
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
PMI Heatmaps
April 2014 Manufacturing PMI
Source: Markit, HSBC. * Whole Economy PMI
PMI not reported
Expanding and stronger
Expanding but weaker
Contracting and weaker
Contracting but improving
China
South Korea
TaiwanIndia
Hong Kong*
Sri Lanka
Vietnam PhilippinesThailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
Singapore
Japan
Australia
New Zealand
India
Macro
A
sian E
con
om
ics 15 M
ay 2014
6
ab
cManufacturing PMIs
Source: Markit, CEIC, HSBC
Apr 14 Mar 14 Feb 14 Apr 14 Mar 14 Feb 14 Apr 14 Mar 14 Feb 14 Apr 14 Mar 14 Feb 14 Apr 14 Mar 14 Feb 14Australia 44.8 47.9 48.6 42.6 49.2 51.5 41.8 52.3 50.0 49.3 39.6 45.5 -7.5 12.8 4.5
New Zealand 58.4 56.5 60.5 59.0 60.5 57.0 51.1 49.4 9.4 7.7
China HSBC 48.1 48.0 48.5 47.9 47.2 48.8 47.4 46.5 48.6 50.7 51.0 50.1 -3.3 -4.5 -1.5
China NBS 50.4 50.3 50.2 52.5 52.7 52.6 51.2 50.6 50.5 47.3 48.3 47.8 3.9 2.3 2.7
India 51.3 51.3 52.5 51.7 52.2 54.0 52.5 52.7 54.9 52.7 51.4 51.4 -0.2 1.3 3.5
Indonesia 51.1 50.1 50.5 49.8 49.8 50.3 52.7 51.2 50.3 49.5 49.8 48.9 3.2 1.4 1.4
Japan 49.4 53.9 55.5 46.2 54.2 58.4 47.4 54.9 56.2 50.0 50.3 50.6 -2.6 4.5 5.6
Korea 50.2 50.4 49.8 49.8 50.4 49.7 50.0 50.4 49.9 49.6 48.5 47.8 0.4 1.9 2.2
Singapore 51.1 50.8 50.9 52.3 51.5 51.9 52.4 50.8 51.2 50.5 49.9 50.8 1.9 0.9 0.4
Taiwan 52.3 52.7 54.7 54.0 54.3 57.2 54.5 54.1 57.8 48.8 51.2 50.4 5.7 2.9 7.4
Vietnam 53.1 51.3 51.0 53.7 52.3 51.4 54.9 53.0 51.8 50.3 48.2 43.3 4.5 4.8 8.6
Global 51.9 52.4 53.3 53.0 53.5 54.6 52.7 53.3 54.6 49.1 50.0 49.8 3.6 3.3 4.8
US (ISM) 54.9 53.7 53.2 55.7 55.9 48.2 55.1 55.1 54.5 53.0 52.5 52.5 2.1 2.6 2.0
US (Markit) 55.4 55.5 57.1 58.2 57.5 57.8 58.9 58.1 59.6 49.1 47.9 47.0 9.7 10.2 12.6
UK 57.3 55.8 56.6 61.9 58.7 58.5 59.8 57.4 59.5 49.4 49.5 46.5 10.5 7.9 12.9
Germany 54.1 53.7 54.8 58.8 57.0 57.4 54.5 55.5 57.1 47.2 49.3 49.0 7.3 6.1 8.1
France 51.2 52.1 49.7 51.7 53.3 50.8 51.8 53.2 49.2 50.4 48.0 49.5 1.5 5.2 -0.2
Eurozone 53.4 53.0 53.2 56.5 55.6 55.3 53.9 54.3 54.5 47.9 48.5 48.3 6.0 5.8 6.1
Apr 14 Mar 14 Feb 14 Apr 14 Mar 14 Feb 14 Apr 14 Mar 14 Feb 14 Apr 14 Mar 14 Feb 14 Apr 14 Mar 14 Feb 14Australia 62.8 67.7 75.1 31.9 31.1 25.8 43.6 45.0 47.4
New Zealand 56.3 54.7
China HSBC 46.5 41.7 45.0 46.4 41.5 46.8 0.1 0.2 -1.8 48.9 51.3 48.5 47.9 49.4 47.2
China NBS 48.3 44.4 47.7 49.1 50.1 48.2 48.3 48.3 48.0
India 50.9 51.0 51.4 54.6 57.2 61.0 -3.7 -6.2 -9.6 53.0 56.8 54.1 50.2 50.2 50.2
Indonesia 56.0 55.4 57.4 60.3 60.0 65.7 -4.3 -4.6 -8.3 50.9 50.4 50.8 50.2 48.2 48.7
Japan 50.1 49.8 51.8 55.3 57.8 58.5 -5.3 -8.0 -6.6 49.1 52.3 51.5 53.8 52.6 53.7
Korea 47.7 48.3 48.2 47.9 47.8 49.8 -0.2 0.5 -1.6 49.9 50.7 50.5 50.9 51.9 50.6
Singapore 50.8 50.2 50.5 52.5 51.7 51.5 49.7 50.7 50.1
Taiwan 48.2 48.1 49.2 52.2 52.5 54.4 -4.0 -4.3 -5.3 54.8 53.8 56.7 50.8 51.2 50.9
Vietnam 49.3 49.5 50.0 55.6 53.9 54.4 -6.3 -4.5 -4.4 53.7 52.7 49.4 52.2 49.2 50.9
Global 51.4 51.6 53.5 51.0 51.8 51.5 51.5 51.6 51.3
US (ISM) 56.5 59.0 60.0 57.0 55.5 53.5 54.7 51.1 52.3
US (Markit) 50.9 51.6 52.3 53.5 54.5 54.1 -2.6 -2.9 -1.8 51.7 51.1 51.6 53.7 53.9 54.1
UK 53.1 53.9 55.1 48.2 46.5 50.0 4.8 7.4 5.1 54.9 53.3 54.8 55.5 55.1 55.5
Germany 50.0 49.4 51.2 43.8 46.0 48.2 6.2 3.4 2.9 52.0 52.2 55.2 51.1 50.4 50.7
France 48.6 49.3 51.6 45.7 46.2 49.8 2.9 3.1 1.8 51.1 51.8 50.2 49.6 50.2 48.5
Eurozone 49.2 49.3 50.5 45.4 47.2 49.8 3.8 2.0 0.7 53.3 53.4 54.5 51.3 50.3 50.6
Notes: above 50 + rising above 50 + falling below 50 + falling below 50 + rising
unchanged above 50 Unchanged below 50
New orders-InventoryPMI Output New orders Inventories
Output prices Input prices Output minus Input prices New export orders Employment
Macro
A
sian E
con
om
ics 15 M
ay 2014
7
ab
c
Non-manufacturing/service PMIs
Source: Markit, HSBC; HK PMI services stands for whole economy PMI, business activity for output, New business for New orders and Outstanding business for backlogs of work, US data is ISM non-manufacturing
Apr 14 Mar 14 Feb 14 Apr 14 Mar 14 Feb 14 Apr 14 Mar 14 Feb 14 Apr 14 Mar 14 Feb 14Australia 48.6 48.9 55.2 47.7 45.3 52.7 49.8 51.8 53.7China (HSBC) 51.4 51.9 51.0 50.3 51.7 50.8 51.4 51.3 51.4 49.7 49.8 48.6China (NBS) 54.8 54.5 55.0 50.2 51.4 50.9 50.8 50.8 51.4Hong Kong 49.7 49.9 53.3 49.5 51.1 50.4 47.2 50.5 54.1India 48.5 47.5 48.8 49.8 51.2 50.1 48.4 47.6 49.5 52.1 52.2 48.2Japan 46.4 52.2 49.3 51.8 50.9 52.0 48.8 52.4 51.9 50.2 50.6 49.4
Global 52.7 53.5 52.7 51.2 51.1 51.6 53.0 52.6 54.0 48.9 49.4 50.1Eurozone 53.1 52.2 52.6 50.5 49.8 50.1 52.3 51.8 51.9 50.0 49.7 48.6France 50.4 51.5 47.2 49.0 49.6 46.8 49.4 51.3 48.0 51.5 52.7 47.4Germany 54.7 53.0 55.9 52.4 51.0 53.9 52.4 51.3 52.3 48.5 46.6 48.4UK 58.7 57.6 58.2 56.0 53.5 55.6 58.2 58.5 59.2 50.2 52.7 54.6US (Markit) 55.0 55.3 53.3 51.2 51.8 51.9 55.1 53.0 56.0
US (ISM non-mfg) 60.9 53.4 54.6 51.3 53.6 47.5 58.2 53.4 51.3 49.0 51.5 52.0
Apr 14 Mar 14 Feb 14 Apr 14 Mar 14 Feb 14Australia 60.7 63.7 61.4 China (HSBC) 51.2 52.8 51.6 49.7 49.8 48.6China (NBS) 52.4 52.8 52.1 47.2 48.3 46.5Hong Kong 53.2 53.5 56.0 50.6 48.6 52.7India 53.9 53.2 53.9 52.1 52.2 48.2Japan 54.6 52.2 54.0 50.2 50.6 49.4
Global 54.6 53.5 54.6 48.9 49.4 50.1Eurozone 52.6 52.8 54.1 50.0 49.7 48.6France 52.1 51.9 52.4 51.5 52.7 47.4Germany 54.0 53.5 56.2 48.5 46.6 48.4UK 54.0 54.1 55.0 50.2 52.7 54.6US (Markit) 55.9 53.2 54.7US (ISM non-mfg) 60.8 58.3 53.7 49.0 51.5 52.0
Notes: above 50 + rising above 50 + falling below 50 + falling below 50 + rising
Unchanged above 50 Unchanged below 50
Business activity Employment New Business Outstanding business
Input prices Outstanding Business
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
CH HK IN JN WD EU FR GE UK US (ISM) US (markit)
Latest Long Term average
Serv ices PMI Business Activity Index Index
8
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
PMI charts Chart 1: Global PMI and Asia ex Japan Business Index
NB: Asia Business Index is a composite of available PMI and similar surveys. Source: Markit, CEIC, HSBC
Chart 2: Asia ex Japan New orders minus Inventories and IP growth
Source: Markit, CEIC, HSBC
Chart 3: US ISM New orders minus Inventories and Asian export growth
NB: Exports series is simple regional average. Source: Markit, CEIC, HSBC
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
May-00 May-02 May-04 May-06 May-08 May-10 May-12 May-14Global manufacturing PMI Asia Business Index (ex Japan)
Index Index
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14
Asia ex JP new orders minus inventories (LHS) IP %3m/3m, Asia simple avg. ex HK & JP (RHS)
Index % 3m/3m
-25-20-15-10-505101520253035
-25-20-15-10-505
101520253035
May-00 May-02 May-04 May-06 May-08 May-10 May-12 May-14
US ISM New orders minus Inventories (LHS) Exports sa, Asia ex JP, simple, % 3m/3m (RHS)
% y -o-yIndex
9
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Chart 4: Asia ex Japan New Export orders and New orders
Source: Markit, CEIC, HSBC
Chart 5: Asia ex Japan Input and Output prices
Source: Markit, CEIC, HSBC
Chart 6: Asia ex Japan employment measure and retail sales growth
Source: Markit, CEIC, HSBC
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14
Asia ex JP: New Export Orders Asia ex JP New Orders
Index Index
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
May-02 May-04 May-06 May-08 May-10 May-12 May-14
Asia ex JP: Output prices Asia ex JP: Input prices
Index Index
-24-20-16-12-8-404812162024
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14
Asia ex Japan: PMI employment index Real retail sales for Asia ex JP (% y-o-y, simpl avg., RHS)
Index % y -o-y
10
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Latest monthly CPI (% y-o-y)
Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, HSBC. *Quarterly data
Above consensus
At par with consensus
Below consensus
China
South Korea
TaiwanIndia Hong Kong
Sri Lanka
Vietnam Philippines
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
Singapore
Japan
Australia*
New Zealand*
India
11
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Indicators
Latest export growth (% y-o-y)
Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, HSBC
Consensus not availableAbove consensus
At par with consensus
Below consensus
China
South Korea
TaiwanIndia
Hong Kong
Sri Lanka
Vietnam Philippines
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
Singapore
Japan
Australia
New Zealand
India
12
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
GDP GDP (red denotes an improvement, grey denotes a deterioration or unchanged from previous reading; ▲,▼, ◄►denotes relative to consensus)
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC; ▲,▼, ◄► denotes above, below or no-change from Bloomberg consensus respectively
Asia GDP (% y-o-y, weighted average) Asia GDP (% y-o-y)
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC
% y-o-y 2013 2014f 2015f 4Q13 1Q14e 2Q14f 3Q14f 4Q14f 1Q15f 2Q15f
Australia 2.4 2.8 (2.8) 3.2 (2.9) 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.2New Zealand 2.7 3.5 (3.5) 3.0 (3.0) 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1China 7.7 7.4 (7.3) 7.7 (7.2) 7.7 7.4 7.6 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.7Hong Kong 2.9 3.7 (3.4) 4.0 (3.5) 3.0 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.9India 4.6 5.3 (5.4) 6.3 (6.0) 4.7 4.5 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.9 6.1Indonesia 5.8 5.2 (5.4) 6.0 (5.8) 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.6 5.9Japan 1.5 1.0 (1.4) 1.0 (1.3) 2.6 2.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.5Korea 3.0 3.2 (3.5) 3.4 (3.7) 3.7 3.9 3.3 2.8 3.4 3.6 3.6Malaysia 4.7 5.2 (5.1) 5.0 (5.0) 5.1 6.5 6.0 4.9 3.5 3.5 4.2Philippines 7.2 5.9 (6.4) 6.1 (6.3) 6.5 6.0 6.0 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.0Singapore 4.1 3.5 (3.8) 4.0 (4.0) 5.5 5.1 2.5 3.4 2.9 3.9 4.0Sri Lanka 7.2 7.2 (7.2) 7.2 (7.0) 8.2 7.8 7.4 7.1 6.5 7.1 7.2Taiwan 2.1 3.0 (3.3) 3.5 (3.6) 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.7 3.7Thailand 2.9 3.0 (2.5) 4.0 (4.2) 0.6 3.3 3.3 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.6Vietnam 5.4 5.6 (5.7) 5.8 (5.9) 6.0 5.0 5.5 5.8 6.2 5.5 5.7Asia 4.7 4.5 (4.6) 4.8 (4.7) 5.1 5.0 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.9Asia x JN 6.2 6.1 (6.1) 6.5 (6.2) 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.5Asia x JN x CH 4.2 4.4 (4.6) 5.0 (5.0) 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.8 4.9ASEAN 5.1 4.7 (4.8) 5.2 (5.3) 4.8 5.1 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.8 5.1
NB: Numbers in parenthesis are consensus as of Apr 2014; Regional aggregates are nominal GDP USD weighted, Asia excludes Australia and New Zealand Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC, Consensus Economics
Mar-14 Dec-13 Sep-13 Jun-13
Australia 2.8 2.4 2.4 0.8 0.6 0.8New Zealand 3.1 3.3 2.3 0.6 1.0 0.1China 7.4 7.7 7.8 7.5 1.5 2.0 2.2 1.6Hong Kong 3.0 2.8 3.1 1.1 0.7 0.6India 4.7 4.8 4.4 1.2 1.2 1.0Indonesia 5.2 5.7 5.6 5.8 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.4Japan 2.6 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.2 1.0Korea 3.9 3.7 3.4 2.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0Malay sia 5.1 5.0 4.4 1.7 1.6 1.6Philippines 6.5 6.9 7.6 1.5 1.3 1.5Singapore 5.1 5.5 5.8 4.2 0.0 1.5 0.1 3.5Sri Lanka 8.2 7.8 6.8 2.0 2.1 2.0Taiw an 3.0 2.9 1.3 2.7 0.3 1.8 0.1 1.0Thailand 0.6 2.7 2.9 0.6 1.4 0.6Vietnam 5.0 6.0 5.5 4.9 -1.1 2.5 2.0 1.6
% y-o-y % q-o-q sa
Mar-14 Dec-13 Sep-13 Jun-13
-3
0
3
6
9
12
-3
0
3
6
9
12
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Asia ex JN ex CH Asia ex JN
% y -o-y % y -o-y
0123456789
0123456789
TH JN AU TA HK NZ SK IN MA SI ID VN PH CH SL
Dec-13 Mar-14
% y -o-y % y -o-y
13
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Industrial Production IP (red denotes an improvement, grey denotes a deterioration or unchanged from previous reading; ▲,▼, ◄► denotes relative to consensus)
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC; * Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong IP are available on a quarterly basis, rest are monthly data, ▲,▼, ◄► denotes above, below or no-change from Bloomberg consensus respectively
Asia IP (% y-o-y, weighted average) Asia IP (% y-o-y)
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC
% y-o-y 2013 2014f 2015f 4Q13 1Q14e 2Q14f 3Q14f 4Q14f 1Q15f 2Q15f
Australia 2.6 2.7 3.5 -1.2 0.9 2.3 4.1 3.5 4.1 4.1New Zealand 0.7 2.2 1.1 3.4 3.8 4.5 3.1 1.3 1.3 1.2China 9.7 9.4 9.8 10.0 8.7 9.4 9.2 9.5 9.6 9.8Hong Kong -0.7 2.7 0.6 0.5 2.0 3.0 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.9India -0.1 3.8 6.2 -0.8 -0.5 3.4 2.2 4.3 5.0 5.5Indonesia 5.6 4.2 5.0 1.5 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.6 4.9Japan -0.9 2.3 5.3 5.8 8.1 0.9 2.5 3.5 5.2 5.4Korea 0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.6 0.2 -0.3 -1.5 -0.1 0.5 0.4Malaysia 2.7 5.6 4.9 3.4 7.3 5.5 6.4 3.5 3.5 4.2Philippines 10.5 8.0 8.0 12.3 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0Singapore 1.6 2.8 4.0 7.1 9.8 2.5 2.7 1.5 3.8 4.0Sri Lanka 0.2 5.2 7.3 2.3 4.5 4.6 5.4 6.4 7.5 7.5Taiwan 0.7 3.8 3.7 2.0 2.4 3.7 4.4 2.0 2.7 3.5Thailand -3.2 0.6 5.6 -7.1 -7.0 -0.4 2.8 4.9 5.2 5.5Asia 3.9 5.3 6.7 6.0 6.4 4.8 5.1 5.7 6.5 6.7Asia x JN 6.1 6.6 7.4 6.1 5.6 6.5 6.3 6.8 7.1 7.3Asia x JN x CH 1.3 3.0 4.2 0.9 1.5 2.8 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.1ASEAN 3.6 4.0 5.3 2.2 3.6 3.7 4.4 4.2 4.8 5.1
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC *NB: regional aggregates are nominal GDP USD weighted, Asia excludes Australia and New Zealand; India annual numbers are fiscal year.
Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14China 8.7 8.8 8.6 8.6 0.5 -3.5 4.9 -0.2India -0.5 -1.8 0.8 0.9 -0.9 1.3Indonesia 4.9 3.5 2.9 0.6 0.3 0.4Japan 7.0 7.0 10.6 0.4 -1.8 2.5Korea 2.7 4.1 -4.3 0.9 -1.9 -0.2Malay sia 4.4 6.8 3.5 -0.3 1.8 -1.6Philippines -1.1 6.8 4.8 -8.2 1.4 -9.8Singapore 12.1 13.1 4.3 6.1 6.5 -7.8Sri Lanka 3.7 -0.3Taiw an 3.1 6.8 -1.8 -2.1 1.3 -1.7Thailand -10.4 -4.7 -5.6 -2.1 -0.5 0.6Vietnam 5.8 4.1 15.5 -1.7 1.6 1.7 0.3 -2.1
4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 1Q13Australia* 2.7 2.0 5.0 4.4 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.4New Zealand* 3.6 1.1 -0.2 1.5 3.1 1.1 -1.0 0.5Hong Kong* 0.5 -0.9 0.3 0.5 -1.0 -0.1 0.4 0.2
1Q134Q13 3Q13 2Q13
% q-o-q, sa/ % m-o-m, saApr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14
% y-o-y
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14Asia ex JN ex CH Asia ex JN
% y -o-y % y -o-y
-12-9-6-303691215
-12-9-6-30369
1215
TH PH HK IN NZ AU SK TA VN MA ID JN CH SI
Mar-14/3Q13 Apr-14/4Q13
% y -o-y % y -o-y
14
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Exports Exports* (red denotes an improvement, grey denotes a deterioration or unchanged from previous reading; ▲,▼, ◄►denotes relative to consensus)
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC; ▲,▼, ◄► denotes above, below or no-change from Bloomberg consensus respectively. *Growth rates are calculated using the export series in local currency terms. Rest are calculated using the export series in USD terms.
Asia exports (% y-o-y, weighted average) Asia exports (% y-o-y)
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC
% y-o-y 2013 2014f 2015f 1Q14e 2Q14f 3Q14f 4Q14f 1Q15f 2Q15f 3Q15f
Australia* 6.1 7.9 6.9 9.4 8.5 7.1 6.8 6.4 6.5 7.0New Zealand* 2.8 7.8 1.3 0.4 5.5 7.3 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.4China 7.8 10.0 12.0 -3.5 11.5 11.5 10.5 12.0 11.0 13.0Hong Kong 13.9 4.2 3.4 3.0 3.8 5.2 4.5 3.4 3.3 3.2India 5.9 8.0 8.7 5.4 7.5 4.8 7.5 10.2 9.0 9.3Indonesia -2.6 -3.8 3.6 -2.4 -3.9 -0.5 -6.0 4.9 3.1 5.3Japan -10.9 -1.5 12.1 -3.6 -2.7 -0.4 4.4 13.4 13.4 11.6Korea 2.7 8.1 13.5 2.5 10.5 10.0 9.4 13.5 13.7 13.5Malaysia -1.7 4.5 8.4 1.4 9.4 4.4 3.0 8.1 8.3 8.5Philippines -3.6 7.8 8.0 7.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 8.0 8.0 8.0Singapore 0.0 3.8 8.4 4.5 2.8 4.5 3.3 7.2 8.0 8.8Sri Lanka 7.3 7.7 11.0 8.0 14.0 16.0 16.0 14.0 14.0 12.0Taiwan 1.4 4.4 4.8 4.1 3.6 4.4 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.4Thailand -0.2 3.3 7.2 -0.8 2.3 1.4 3.9 5.8 6.4 7.6Vietnam 15.4 15.4 13.0 12.2 17.4 13.3 10.5 11.7 10.3 14.3Asia 0.5 5.0 10.9 -1.6 5.3 5.9 6.9 11.4 10.9 11.3Asia x JN 5.6 7.9 10.4 -0.6 9.0 8.8 8.1 10.6 9.8 11.2Asia x JN x CH 2.8 5.3 8.3 3.1 5.7 5.2 4.9 8.7 8.2 8.8ASEAN -1.7 0.9 6.0 0.4 1.2 2.1 0.0 6.2 5.6 6.9
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC, Australia and New Zealand data are exports of goods and services; Regional aggregates data are nominal GDP USD weighted, Asia excludes Australia and New Zealand
Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14
Australia* 18.4 19.1 22.6 -2.4 0.2 4.9New Zealand* 15.2 16.3 21.4 1.1 3.8 0.5China 0.8 -6.6 -18.1 10.5 4.5 5.9 -14.2 5.1Hong Kong 3.4 -1.4 -0.6 12.5 -9.4 -1.1India 5.3 -3.2 -5.5 2.7 1.1 0.9 -0.7 -0.1Indonesia 1.2 -2.5 -5.9 -3.5 2.9 -5.3Japan* 1.8 9.8 9.5 -1.5 -0.2 -1.1Korea 9.0 5.1 1.4 -0.2 0.9 3.5 -1.8 0.3Malay sia 2.4 5.9 4.0 -5.3 3.1 2.7Philippines 11.2 11.6 -3.0 -0.5 7.4 -11.7Singapore -3.4 8.3 -1.8 -11.3 8.7 0.9Sri Lanka 5.4 23.2 -9.8 13.4Taiw an 7.9 1.1 7.4 -4.3 0.6 2.4 0.3 -3.0Thailand -2.7 2.2 -1.5 1.4 1.6 -1.1Vietnam 21.6 11.3 33.5 -0.1 3.1 0.9 2.0 4.6
Jan-14Feb-14Mar-14Apr-14
% y-o-y % m-o-m, sa
-40-30-20-1001020304050
-40-30-20-10
01020304050
Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14
Asia ex JN Asia ex JN ex CH
% y -o-y % y -o-y
-10
0
10
20
30
-10
0
10
20
30
CH SI IN TH TA ID JN MA HK SK PH VN NZ AU
Mar-14 Apr-14
% y -o-y % y -o-y
15
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Consumer Spending Consumer spending (red denotes an improvement, grey denotes a deterioration or unchanged from previous reading)
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC; * New Zealand data available on quarterly basis, rest are monthly data
Asia Retail Sales (% y-o-y, weighted average) Asia Retail Sales (% y-o-y)
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC
Retail Sales
Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14Australia 4.4 5.0 6.7 0.1 0.3 1.1China 11.9 12.2 11.8 11.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6Hong Kong -1.3 -2.1 14.4 -3.0 -4.8 5.5Indonesia 27.7 25.1 18.8 24.8 2.5 3.4 -0.1 -0.5Japan 11.0 3.7 4.4 3.8 0.2 1.2Korea 2.6 -0.7 6.1 2.1 -2.7 2.2Singapore -9.5 0.1 3.0 0.6Taiw an -3.8 6.5 -4.0 0.6Thailand -8.0 -10.4 -0.6 -3.2Vietnam 11.5 6.3 12.7 11.9 3.5 -2.2 3.1 0.0
4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 1Q13 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 1Q13New Zealand* 3.9 4.5 3.2 3.2 1.3 0.7 0.8 1.1
% y-o-y % q-o-q, sa/ % m-o-m, sa
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14
Asia ex JN ex CH Asia ex JN
% y -o-y % y -o-y
-10-5051015202530
-10-505
1015202530
SI TH TA HK KR NZ JA AU CH
Feb-14/3Q13 Mar-14/4Q13
% y -o-y % y -o-y
Motor Vehicle Sales
Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14Australia -2.8 -3.6 -3.2 Malay sia 3.1 12.9 -8.2China 8.8 6.6 17.8 6.0 Philippines 25.4 16.5 27.1Hong Kong -11.1 23.1 -15.0 Singapore 14.5 38.5 -8.7India 7.8 13.4 5.3 4.3 Sri Lanka Indonesia 17.8 8.2 7.0 Taiw an 14.6 11.5 -4.9Japan -5.5 17.4 18.4 29.4 Thailand -46.7 -44.8 -45.5Korea 12.6 7.3 5.5 -6.4 Vietnam 21.8 60.6 20.9
% y-o-y % y-o-y
_______________________ Consumer Confidence ________________________ _______________________ Private Consumption ________________________ ______________________________ Index _______________________________ % y-o-y % q-o-q, sa Apr-14/1Q14 Mar-14/ 4Q13 Feb-14/ 3Q13 Jan-14/ 2Q13 1Q14 4Q13 1Q14 4Q13
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC; * Hong Kong Consumer confidence is available on a quarterly basis (latest being 4Q-2013), rest are monthly data
Australia 99.7 99.5 100.2 107.6 2.6 1.6New Zealand 3.7 1.2China 107.9 103.1 101.1 Hong Kong* 75.6 75.3 75.0 3.2 1.7India 2.5 0.7Indonesia 113.9 118.2 116.2 116.7 5.6 5.3 1.5 1.3Japan 38.0 38.8 39.7 2.1 0.5Korea 110.2 110.2 110.2 111.2 2.2 0.9Malay sia 7.3 1.2Philippines 5.6 1.3Singapore 1.9 0.3Taiw an 83.7 81.0 82.9 80.8 3.3 1.0Thailand 67.8 68.8 69.9 71.5 -4.5 -0.2
16
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Headline CPI Headline CPI (red denotes an improvement, grey denotes a deterioration or unchanged from previous reading; ▲,▼, ◄► denotes relative to consensus)
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC; * Australia and New Zealand CPI are available on a quarterly basis, rest are monthly data; ▲,▼, ◄► denotes above, below or no-change from Bloomberg consensus resp.
Asia CPI (% y-o-y, weighted average) Asia CPI (% y-o-y)
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC
% y-o-y 2013 2014f 2015f 1Q14 2Q14f 3Q14f 4Q14f 1Q15f 2Q15f 3Q15f
Australia 2.4 2.8 (2.8) 2.8 (2.6) 2.9 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.8New Zealand 1.1 2.3 (1.9) 2.5 (2.3) 1.5 2.3 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4China 2.6 2.6 (2.6) 3.1 (3.0) 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.2Hong Kong 4.3 4.1 (3.9) 4.0 (3.6) 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.2 3.9India (WPI) 5.9 5.0 (5.6) 6.4 (5.8) 5.1 6.0 4.0 3.9 6.0 6.3 6.4India (CPI) 9.4 7.4 (7.7) 8.0 (7.1) 8.4 7.7 7.4 6.6 8.0 8.2 8.1Indonesia 6.4 6.3 (6.3) 4.9 (5.5) 7.8 7.4 4.5 5.5 4.7 4.8 5.0Japan 0.4 2.8 (2.6) 1.8 (1.7) 1.5 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.2 1.0 1.0Korea 1.3 2.4 (1.9) 3.3 (2.6) 1.1 2.2 2.8 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.2Malaysia 2.1 3.2 (3.3) 3.3 (3.6) 3.5 3.5 3.2 2.5 2.0 3.5 3.8Philippines 2.9 4.2 (4.1) 4.3 (3.8) 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.1 4.0 4.3 4.4Singapore 2.4 2.4 (2.5) 3.2 (2.7) 1.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.3 3.2Sri Lanka 6.9 6.0 (6.2) 7.2 (6.7) 4.2 4.3 6.6 8.8 9.0 8.2 6.2Taiwan 0.8 1.4 (1.2) 1.6 (1.7) 0.8 1.2 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.6Thailand 2.2 2.3 (2.4) 2.5 (2.8) 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5Vietnam 6.6 5.1 (6.0) 7.3 (6.9) 4.8 4.5 4.9 5.8 6.5 6.7 6.8Asia 2.6 3.3 (3.2) 3.3 (3.1) 2.5 3.3 3.0 3.2 3.4 2.9 2.9Asia x JN 3.6 3.5 (3.5) 3.9 (3.7) 3.0 3.4 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.7Asia x JN x CH 5.0 4.8 (4.7) 5.1 (4.6) 3.8 4.3 3.5 3.7 4.3 4.4 4.4ASEAN 4.3 4.4 (4.5) 4.1 (4.3) 4.8 5.0 3.7 4.1 3.6 4.0 4.1
NB: Numbers in parenthesis are consensus as of Apr 2014; Regional aggregates data are nominal GDP USD weighted, Asia excludes Australia and New Zealand Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC, Consensus Economics
Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14China 1.8 2.4 2.0 2.5 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.2Hong Kong 3.9 3.9 4.6 0.1 0.3 0.4India (WPI) 5.7 4.7 5.2 0.5 0.2 -0.3India (CPI) 8.6 8.3 8.0 8.8 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2Indonesia 7.3 7.3 7.7 8.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5Japan 1.6 1.5 1.4 0.0 0.0 -0.1Korea 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2Malay sia 3.5 3.5 3.4 0.3 0.3 0.4Philippines 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5Singapore 1.2 0.4 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.2Sri Lanka 4.9 4.2 4.2 4.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1Taiw an 1.6 1.6 0.0 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1Thailand 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3Vietnam 4.4 4.4 4.6 5.5 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.2
1Q14 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13Australia* 2.9 2.7 2.2 2.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.6New Zealand* 1.5 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.2
% q-o-q, sa/ % m-o-m, sa% y-o-yApr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14
2Q131Q14 3Q134Q13
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14Asia ex JN Asia ex JN ex CH
% y -o-y % y -o-y
0
3
6
9
0
3
6
9
SI KR NZ JA TA TH CH AU MA HK PH SL VN ID IN
Mar-14/4Q 13 Apr-14/1Q14
% y -o-y % y -o-y
17
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Core CPI Core CPI (red denotes an improvement, grey denotes a deterioration or unchanged from previous reading)
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC; * Australia and New Zealand CPI is available on quarterly basis, rest are monthly data; Australia data is trimmed mean inflation
Asia core CPI (% y-o-y, weighted average) Asia core CPI (% y-o-y)
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC
% y-o-y 2013 2014f 2015f 1Q14 2Q14f 3Q14f 4Q14f 1Q15f 2Q15f 3Q15f
Australia 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.8New Zealand 1.6 2.1 2.3 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aChina 1.7 1.7 1.8 0.1 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aHong Kong 2.3 0.3 4.6 4.0 5.3 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.5India (WPI) 2.8 4.6 4.9 3.2 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.9 4.9 4.9Indonesia 4.4 5.2 4.8 4.6 5.7 4.9 4.9 4.6 4.8 4.8Japan 0.4 2.6 1.9 1.3 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 1.0 1.1Korea 1.6 2.5 2.9 1.9 2.3 2.9 2.8 3.2 3.1 2.8Malaysia 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.1 2.4 2.8Philippines 2.9 3.5 3.6 3.0 3.3 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6Singapore 2.4 2.6 3.3 2.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aSri Lanka 4.5 5.4 4.7 3.3 4.1 6.5 7.5 5.6 5.2 4.2Taiwan 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.2Thailand 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5Vietnam 10.5 5.5 5.8 6.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aAsia 1.6 2.5 2.4 2.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.5 2.3 2.3Asia x JN 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.7Asia x JN x CH 2.6 3.3 3.7 2.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.7ASEAN 2.8 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.6 3.6
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC; Australia data is trimmed mean; Regional aggregates data are nominal GDP USD weighted, Asia excludes Australia and New Zealand
Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14China 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3Hong Kong 3.9 4.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.5India (Core WPI) 3.5 3.1 3.0 0.4 0.2 0.3India (Core CPI) 7.8 7.8 7.9 8.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7Indonesia 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4Japan 0.6 0.7 0.6 -0.1 0.1 -0.1Korea 2.3 2.1 1.7 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1Malay sia 2.6 2.5 2.3 0.2 0.3 0.2Philippines 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3Singapore 1.9 1.7 2.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1Sri Lanka 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.5 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.9Taiw an 1.2 1.0 -0.2 1.0 0.2 0.7 -0.7 0.4Thailand 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2Vietnam 5.1 5.7 5.9 6.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1
1Q14 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 1Q14 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13Australia* 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.3 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.6New Zealand* 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3
% y-o-y % q-o-q, sa/ % m-o-m, sa
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14Asia ex JN Asia ex JN ex CH
% y -o-y % y -o-y
-1012345678
-1012345678
JN TA TH NZ CH SI KR AU MA PH SL HK ID VN IN
Mar-13/ 4Q13 Apr-14/ 1Q14
% y -o-y % y -o-y
18
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Asset Prices Real Estate Prices (red denotes an increase, grey denotes decrease or unchanged)
NB: China: Property price ytd avg; New Zealand: median sales price of dwellings; Hong Kong: Property price index, domestic price; Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Australia: Housing price Index; India: 15 city average of Housing Price Index, National Housing Bank; Taiwan: Sinyi Residential Property price Index for Taipei area; Indonesia and Singapore: Residential property price Index; India m-o-m data is nsa; Source: CEIC, HSBC, Thomson Reuters Datastream
Real Estate Prices (% y-o-y) Real Policy Rates (%)
Source: CEIC, Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC Source: CEIC, Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC
HSBC Real Policy Rates - (negative readings denoted in red)
1Q 14 2Q 14f 3Q 14f 4Q 14f 1Q 15f 2Q 15f 3Q 15f
Australia -0.36 -0.57 -0.09 0.23 0.27 0.17 0.42 New Zealand 1.25 0.91 1.00 0.93 1.23 1.53 1.83Bangladesh -0.15 -0.35 -0.05 0.65 -0.05 -0.25 0.05China 3.70 3.40 3.60 3.30 3.00 2.90 2.80Hong Kong -3.60 -3.53 -3.70 -3.50 -3.40 -3.70 -2.90India -0.40 0.55 0.82 1.69 0.22 0.03 0.13Indonesia -0.31 0.06 3.01 1.99 2.83 2.65 2.51Japan -1.49 -3.12 -3.27 -3.08 -3.14 -0.95 -0.99Korea 1.40 0.32 -0.07 -0.29 -0.36 0.03 0.59Malaysia -0.50 -0.50 0.25 0.95 1.47 -0.03 -0.31Philippines -0.63 -0.31 -0.48 -0.10 0.04 -0.33 -0.37Singapore -0.70 -2.50 -2.40 -2.30 -2.80 -2.90 -2.80Sri Lanka 3.80 3.66 1.41 -0.84 -0.52 0.50 2.57Taiwan 1.08 0.68 -0.13 -0.13 0.50 0.55 0.60Thailand 0.01 -0.38 -0.76 -0.99 -0.83 -0.31 -0.25Vietnam 0.17 0.47 0.11 -0.77 -0.50 -0.72 -0.75
Source: Central Banks, CEIC, HSBC.
Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14
China -1.5 -3.6 -3.6 0.3 0.2 -1.9
Hong Kong 1.6 1.7 5.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
Korea 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
New Zealand 10.0 8.6 8.6 1.6 1.0 -2.2
Thailand 6.5 7.4 0.4 0.2
1Q14 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 1Q14 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13
Australia 9.5 8.1 5.3 2.8 3.2 2.1
India 3.4 6.4 5.9 2.4 1.1 -1.7
Indonesia 11.5 13.5 12.1 1.8 2.3 2.2
Malay sia 8.1 12.2 11.3 -0.8 3.2 3.7
Singapore -0.8 1.1 3.9 4.1 -1.3 -0.9 0.4 1.0
Taiw an 15.1 15.0 15.4 2.0 0.8 7.4
% y-o-y % m-o-m sa/% q-o-q sa
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-5
0
5
10
15
20
CH SI KR HK IN TH MA AU NZ ID TA
Latest 6 months ago
% y -o-y % y -o-y
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
HK JN SI PH MA IN AU ID BD TH VN TA NZ SK CH SL
Last Quarter (1Q-14) 2014f (period-end)
% %
19
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Money & Credit Private Credit (red denotes an improvement, grey denotes a deterioration or unchanged from previous reading)
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC; *New Zealand data available on quarterly basis, rest are monthly data
Private Credit Growth (% y-o-y) Asia Money Supply (% y-o-y)
Source: CEIC, HSBC, Thomson Reuters Datastream Source: CEIC, HSBC, Thomson Reuters Datastream
Money Supply (red denotes an improvement, grey denotes a deterioration or unchanged from previous reading)
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC. NB: Australia money supply is M3, the rest is M2
Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14
Australia 6.8 6.8 6.6 0.5 0.6 0.6
China 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.3 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2
Hong Kong 19.0 21.8 17.8 -1.2 3.2 3.7
India 14.1 17.0 15.6 15.6 -0.1 1.5 1.1 2.2
Indonesia 19.1 19.9 20.9 1.2 0.7 1.5
Japan 2.7 2.8 0.1 0.3
Korea 6.1 6.1 5.7 0.2 0.7 0.8
Malay sia 10.4 10.9 11.4 0.5 0.2 1.0
Philippines 18.0 15.9 1.4 0.7
Singapore 13.5 14.6 16.5 0.7 0.6 1.3
Sri Lanka
Taiw an 4.4 4.2 4.2 0.6 0.5 0.7
Thailand 7.1 -1.0
4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 1Q13 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 1Q13
New Zealand* 5.1 4.8 4.4 4.2 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.4
% y-o-y % q-o-q, sa/ % m-o-m, sa
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
JN NZ TA SK AU TH MA SL SI CH IN PH HK ID
Latest 6 months ago
% y -o-y % y -o-y
0510152025303540
05
10152025303540
SI JN KR NZ TA MA TH AU ID IN HK CH SL PH
% y-o-y latest % 3m/3m saar latest
% y -o-y % y -o-y
Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14Australia 6.6 7.1 6.6 7.4 7.8 7.7New Zealand 5.0 6.8 7.0 7.2 5.8 4.6China 13.2 12.0 13.3 13.2 14.0 13.1 12.3 12.1Hong Kong 12.1 12.8 9.6 11.6 12.8 13.0India 10.7 9.3 9.6 11.1 9.8 10.0 9.6 9.9Indonesia 10.0 10.9 11.6 7.1 6.2 6.8Japan 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.3 1.6 3.0 4.2 4.7Korea 5.0 5.7 5.5 7.3 6.8 6.1Malay sia 6.3 6.4 6.8 2.9 2.1 0.9Philippines 34.8 36.1 37.3 23.9 24.7 31.9Singapore 2.0 2.4 3.6 4.8 3.1 1.3Sri Lanka 16.1 17.8 12.6 13.3Taiw an 5.9 5.8 6.1 4.4 3.8 4.3Thailand 6.4 7.4 7.4 6.0 6.9 6.2
% y-o-y % 3m/3m saar
20
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Rates Asia Policy rate forecasts % pa, (red denotes rate hikes or HSBC above implied rate, grey denotes rate cuts or HSBC below implied rate)
Current Last Move/Date Next MPC 1Q 14 2Q 14f 3Q 14f 4Q 14f 1Q 15f 3M FW 6M FW 12M FW
Australia 2.50 -25bp (Aug-2013) 3-Jun 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.75 3.00 2.66 2.69 2.83New Zealand 3.00 +25bp (Apr-2014) 11-Jun 2.75 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.75 3.50 3.68 4.04Bangladesh 7.25 -50bp (Feb-2013) n/a 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 n/a n/a n/aChina 6.00 -31bp (Jul-2012) n/a 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 n/a n/a n/aHong Kong 0.50 -100bp (Dec-2008) n/a 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 n/a n/a n/aIndia Repo 8.00 +25bp (Jan-2014) 3-Jun 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.02 7.93 8.03Indonesia 7.50 +25bp (Nov-2013) 12-Jun 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 n/a n/a n/aJapan 0.0-0.10 (Oct-2010) 21-May 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 n/a n/a n/aKorea 2.50 -25bp (May-2013) 12-Jun 2.50 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 2.50 2.56 2.66Malaysia 3.00 +25bp (May-2011) 10-Jul 3.00 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.25 3.18 3.59Philippines 3.50 -25bp (Oct-2012) 19-Jun 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.00 4.00 n/a n/a n/aSri Lanka 8.00 -50bp (Jan-2014) 25-May 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.50 n/a n/a n/aTaiwan 1.875 +12.5bp (Jun-2011) 25-Jun 1.875 1.875 1.875 1.875 2.000 2.030 2.060 2.120Thailand 2.00 -25bp (Mar-2014) 18-Jun 2.00 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.46 2.05 2.03Vietnam 5.00 -50bp (Mar-2014) n/a 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 6.00 n/a n/a n/a
NB: forecasts in italics; New Zealand and Australia implied rates are OIS swap rates. Singapore implied rates are calculated through 'the Bloomberg FWCM function'; Rest of the implied rates are based on recommendation from our local rates strategy team. For implied rates comparison, 3m compares to 2Q-2014, 6M to 3Q-2014 and 12 months to 1Q-2015; Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, HSBC
Asia nominal vs. core deflated real Policy rate (%) Expected change in Policy rate (bps)
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, CEIC, HSBC
HSBC Asia bond yields forecast (% pa)
______________________ 5 yr ____________________ _____________________ 10 yr ____________________ Rates strategy comment Current + 3m + 6m + 9m Current + 3m + 6m + 9m 9m view
US 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.4 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.5 n/aUK 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.7 2.7 3.0 2.8 2.5 n/aEuro 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 n/aAustralia 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.2 NeutralNew Zealand 4.0 4.8 4.9 5.1 4.3 5.0 5.2 5.4 FlatteningChina 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 SteepeningHong Kong 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.4 NeutralIndia 8.8 9.0 8.5 8.5 8.8 9.0 8.6 8.6 SteepeningIndonesia 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.3 FlatteningJapan 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 FlatteningKorea 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.2 FlatteningMalaysia 3.6 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 SteepeningPhilippines 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.5 FlatteningSingapore 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.3 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.5 FlatteningTaiwan 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 NeutralThailand 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 Flattening
Note: Rates strategy recommendations from HSBC: Asia-Pac Rates: A decline in term and political premium as of 24 April 2014; forecasts in italics, 3m compares to 2Q-2014, 6M to 3Q-2014 and 9 months to 4Q-2014. For US, UK, Euro forecasts are for 3M, 6M and 12M. Source: HSBC, CEIC & Bloomberg
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
JN HK TA NZ AU KR MA TH PH VN CH ID IN SL
Nominal Policy rate (latest) Real Policy rate (core deflated)
% %
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
TH JN AU CH HK ID SL TA VN NZ IN KR MA PHOver 6 months Over 12 months
bps bps
21
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Foreign Exchange HSBC Asia FX forecast (period end, vs. USD) (red denotes appreciation or HSBC above forward rate, grey denotes depreciation or HSBC below forward rate)
Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14f Q3 14f Q4 14f Q1 15f % chg 2014 3M FW 6M FW 12M FW
Australia 0.93 0.93 0.90 0.87 0.86 0.86 -8.51 0.93 0.93 0.92 New Zealand 0.83 0.87 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.88 1.16 0.86 0.85 0.84China 6.05 6.17 6.26 6.20 6.14 6.12 -0.16 6.17 6.18 6.20Hong Kong 7.75 7.76 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 0.65 7.75 7.75 7.75India 61.90 60.10 61.00 62.00 62.00 63.00 3.54 60.36 61.44 63.59Indonesia 12,189 11,404 11,750 12,000 12,250 12,500 6.14 11,620 11,815 12,221Japan 105.37 102.98 103.00 103.00 101.00 99.00 -0.98 102.00 102.00 101.00Korea 1,055 1,069 1,060 1,050 1,040 1,030 1.76 1,024 1,029 1,036Malaysia 3.25 3.27 3.30 3.32 3.33 3.35 3.42 3.23 3.25 3.28Philippines 44.41 45.00 44.80 45.00 45.20 45.40 3.20 43.80 43.80 44.00Singapore 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.28 1.28 2.40 1.25 1.25 1.25Sri Lanka 130.89 131.98 130.00 130.00 130.00 130.00 -0.30 n/a n/a n/aTaiwan 29.95 29.78 30.20 30.00 29.80 29.70 -1.00 30.10 30.00 29.80Thailand 32.68 31.71 32.80 33.40 34.00 34.30 4.62 32.60 32.70 33.10Vietnam 21,095 21,080 21,100 21,100 21,100 21,100 -0.01 21,236 21,463 22,755Euro 1.37 1.39 1.33 1.30 1.28 1.25 -7.91 1.39 1.39 1.39Sterling 1.66 1.66 1.61 1.55 1.50 1.47 -11.76 1.69 1.69 1.69
NB: forecasts in italics; % change from May 8, 2014 to end 4Q 14; FW rates are from Bloomberg FXFC function using forward rate; for forward rate comparison, 3M compares to 2Q-2014, 6M to 3Q-2014, and 12M to 1Q-2015; Source: HSBC, Bloomberg
Asia REER (% y-o-y) Exchange rate- 2014 upside/downside vs. spot rates (%)
Source: BIS, HSBC Source: Bloomberg, HSBC, Spot returns as of May 14, 2014
HSBC Asia FX policy sustainability dashboard — (negative readings denoted in red)
S.T. ext debt FX reserves S.T. debt C/A 2014f C/A 2015f ______________ Exports % y-o-y _______________ (USD bn) (USD bn) Cover (%) (% of GDP) (% of GDP) 3mma (Latest) 2014f 2015f
Australia n/a 57 n/a -1.9 -1.5 3.7 7.9 6.9New Zealand n/a 12 n/a -2.9 -3.8 19.6 7.8 1.3China 741 3,948 18.8 2.5 2.7 -8.0 10.0 12.0Hong Kong 788 318 n/a 4.1 6.2 0.5 4.2 3.4India 100 284 35.3 -2.2 -2.7 -2.0 8.0 8.7Indonesia 52 106 49.1 -2.4 -2.0 -2.4 -3.8 3.6Korea 151 356 42.3 4.6 4.7 5.2 8.1 13.5Malaysia 35 118 29.4 5.4 7.4 4.1 4.5 8.4Philippines 7 80 8.7 3.1 2.4 11.2 7.8 8.0Singapore n/a 275 n/a 19.3 19.8 1.0 3.8 8.4Sri Lanka 6 8 73.2 -5.2 -5.6 13.9 7.7 11.0Taiwan 118 421 28.0 8.7 6.3 5.5 4.4 4.8Thailand 68 167 41.0 1.0 1.2 -0.7 3.3 7.2Vietnam 10 30 33.0 3.3 0.9 22.1 15.4 13.0
NB: (1) short term debts are 2014 estimates and FX reserves are the latest released; forecasts in italics; (2) Re-exports are excluded from Taiwan’s export no.s; (3) USD export values are used. Source: HSBC, CEIC.
-25-20-15-10-50510
-25-20-15-10-505
10
AU ID IN JN TH PH MA SI TA CH HK SK NZ
Latest 6 months ago
% y -o-y % y -o-y
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
NZ TA JN SL CH VN HK SK SG PH MA IN TH ID AU
% change ytd
% %
22
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Global indicators Global High Frequency data (red denotes an improvement, grey denotes a deterioration or unchanged from previous reading)
_________________________ GDP (% y-o-y) _______________________ _______________________ Exports (% y-o-y) _____________________ 1Q14 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14
US (q-o-q saar) 0.1 2.6 4.1 2.5 US 6.0 1.6 3.0 Eurozone 0.5 -0.3 -0.6 Eurozone 4.0 1.3 Germany 1.4 0.6 0.5 Germany 10.3 2.8 Japan 2.6 2.3 1.2 Japan 1.8 9.8 9.5 Brazil 1.9 2.2 3.3 Brazil -4.4 -8.8 2.5 0.4 Russia 2.0 1.3 1.0 Russia 13.6 13.7 17.5 16.9 India 4.7 4.8 4.4 India 5.3 -3.2 -5.5 2.7 China 7.4 7.7 7.8 7.5 China 0.8 -6.6 -18.1 10.5 South Africa 2.1 1.8 1.9 South Africa -6.9 -4.7 Turkey 4.4 4.5 Turkey 12.4 5.7 8.3 Mexico 0.7 1.4 1.6 Mexico 4.5 4.7 -1.0
________________________ IP (% y-o-y) _______________________ __________________ Retail Sales (% m-o-m sa) _________________ Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14
US 4.1 3.8 3.2 US 0.1 1.2 0.8 -0.9 Eurozone 1.8 Eurozone 0.3 -0.1 0.9 Germany 2.4 4.7 4.7 Germany -0.2 -0.1 1.1 Japan 7.0 7.0 10.6 Japan 2.3 0.4 1.1 Brazil 5.0 -2.2 Brazil 0.5 1.1 Russia 1.4 2.1 -0.2 Russia 36.0 -38.8 India -0.5 -1.8 0.8 India 0.7 2.4 -0.4 2.1 China 8.7 8.8 8.6 8.6 China 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 South Africa 1.5 2.5 South Africa -0.2 0.5 Turkey 3.8 4.1 6.4 Turkey 5.6 -10.8 -14.6 -21.0 Mexico 3.4 0.5 0.8 Mexico -0.9 -0.7
________________________ CPI (% y-o-y) _______________________ _____________________ Core CPI (% y-o-y) ____________________ Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14
US 1.5 1.1 1.6 US 1.7 1.6 1.6 Eurozone 0.5 0.7 0.8 Eurozone 0.8 1.1 1.0 Germany 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.3 Germany 0.9 1.2 1.2 Japan 1.6 1.5 1.4 Japan 0.6 0.7 0.6 Brazil 6.3 6.2 5.7 5.6 Brazil 6.4 6.2 5.7 Russia 7.3 6.9 6.2 6.1 Russia 9.4 6.0 5.6 5.5 India 5.7 4.7 5.2 India 3.5 3.1 3.0 China 1.8 2.4 2.0 2.5 China 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.0 South Africa 6.0 5.9 5.8 South Africa 5.5 5.3 5.3 Turkey 9.4 8.4 7.9 7.8 Turkey 9.4 8.9 8.1 7.2 Mexico 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.5 Mexico 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.2
______________________ Policy rate (%) ______________________ ____________________ OECD Lead Indicator ___________________ Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Dec-13 Nov-13
US 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 US 100.5 100.6 100.7 100.7 Eurozone 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Eurozone 101.1 101.0 100.9 100.8 Germany Germany 98.3 98.5 98.7 98.8 Japan 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 Japan 101.2 101.2 101.2 101.1 Brazil 11.00 10.75 10.75 10.50 Brazil 98.3 98.5 98.7 98.8 Russia 7.50 7.00 5.50 Russia 99.4 99.6 99.7 99.7 India 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 India 97.6 97.7 97.8 97.9 China 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 China 99.3 99.3 99.3 99.4 South Africa 5.50 5.50 5.50 South Africa 100.1 100.2 100.2 100.2 Turkey 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Turkey 97.9 98.4 98.8 99.2 Mexico 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 Mexico 99.4 99.1 98.9 98.8
____________________ Unemployment rate (%) ___________________ __________________ Consumer Confidence Index _________________ Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14
US 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.6 US 82.3 83.9 78.3 79.4 Eurozone 11.8 11.8 11.8 Eurozone -12.7 -11.7 Germany 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 Germany 8.5 8.5 8.3 7.7 Japan 3.6 3.6 3.7 Japan 36.9 37.6 39.7 Brazil 5.0 5.1 4.8 Brazil 106.3 107.2 107.1 108.9 Russia 5.4 5.6 5.6 China 107.9 103.1 101.1 Turkey 10.1 Turkey 78.5 72.7 69.2 72.4 Mexico 4.8 4.6 5.1 Mexico 90.3 88.79 84.52 84.5
4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 1Q13 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 1Q13 China 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.1 Russia -11.0 -7.0 -6.0 -7.0 South Africa 17.5 17.6 18.2 South Africa -5.7 -6.9 -7.8 1.2
Note: Japan exports is in local currency, rest are in USD terms; Eurozone retail sales is ex-motor vehicles, Eurozone IP is ex-construction, Germany Consumer confidence is Gfk consumer confidence index, South Africa unemployment rate is average of Black African, coloured, Indian and white, India inflation data is WPI; Source: CEIC, Thomson Reuters Datastream
23
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
G7 Indicators German IFO – current assessment versus expectations G-3 Capital Goods Orders (% y-o-y, non-weighted)
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
G-3 Retail Sales (% y-o-y, non-weighted) G-7 OECD lead indicator vs. Asia ex Japan IP Growth (% y-o-y)
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC
Brent crude oil and Gold prices IMF Commodity price indices (2005 = 100)
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC Source: IMF, HSBC
US and Germany 10 year bond yields US and EU core CPI
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC
75
85
95
105
115
125
75
85
95
105
115
125
May-04 May-06 May-08 May-10 May-12 May-14
IFO - Current Assessment (LHS) IFO - Expectation (RHS)
Index Index
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14
G-3 Capital Goods Orders
% y -o-y % y -o-y
-10-8-6-4-202468
-10-8-6-4-202468
Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12 Feb-14G-3 Retail Sales
% y -o-y % y -o-y
-15
-5
5
15
25
95
97
99
101
103
Feb-02 Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12 Feb-14
G7: OECD lead indicator (LHS)
Asia ex JP (Simple) IP growth (RHS)
Index % y -o-y
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
60
80
100
120
140
160
Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14
Brent (LHS) Gold (RHS)
USD/bbl USD/Troy Ounce
100
150
200
250
300
100
150
200
250
300
Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14
Food Price Index (LHS) Metal Price Index (RHS)
Index Index
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14
US 10-yr bond yield (LHS) Germany 10-yr bond yield (RHS)
% %
0.650.901.151.401.651.902.152.402.65
0.650.901.151.401.651.902.152.402.65
Apr-06 Apr-08 Apr-10 Apr-12 Apr-14US PCE Core CPI (LHS) EU Core CPI (RHS)
% y -o-y % y -o-y
24
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Asia Electronics Asian electronics lead indicator
Source: CEIC, HSBC
US Semiconductor Equipment book-to-bill ratio Singapore Electronics PMI
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
Philly Semiconductor Index US Semiconductor shipments worldwide
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
US electronic imports Japan, Korea and Taiwan electronic exports
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14
Asian electronics lead indicator (LHS) Asian electronics production growth (RHS)
Change in indicator v alue % 3m/3m sa
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14US SEMI book-to-bill
Ratio Ratio
40
45
50
55
60
40
45
50
55
60
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Singapore Electronics PMI
Index Index
190
290
390
490
590
190
290
390
490
590
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Philly Semiconductor Index
Index Index
-40-30-20-10010203040
-40-30-20-10
010203040
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
US Semiconductor shipments, 3m rolling avg
% y -o-y % y -o-y
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14US Electronics Imports
% y -o-y % y -o-y
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14Korea Electronic Exports Taiwan Electronic ExportsJapan Electronic Exports
% y -o-y % y -o-y
25
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Asia Major Events
Major Events
Source: Bloomberg, HSBC.
China
South Korea
TaiwanIndia Hong Kong
Sri Lanka
Vietnam Philippines
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
Singapore
Japan
Australia
New Zealand
India
State Council announces new capital market reforms for the next five years
Sewol ferry incident
PM Yingluck foundguilty by Constitutional Court of abuse of power in 2011 transfer of securityhead
Opposition party PDI-P wins most votes in April 9 legislative elections
26
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Australia News Highlights
Australia’s fiscal settings are currently in focus, given the release of Budget 2014/15 on 13 May. To provide a guide to government spending reform, the new government had appointed a Commission of Audit, which released its report recently. Two key themes were highlighted among the report’s 86 recommendations. First, that without cuts to spending or boosted tax revenue, Australia faces the prospect of persistent budget deficits. Second, Australia can implement gradual reform to get the budget deficit under control, without the need for urgent fiscal austerity. This room for gradual reform reflects Australia’s low – by international standards – level of net public debt.
Data Trends
The economy continues to rebalance away from mining-led growth towards other drivers. Low rates and rising asset prices are supporting a rise in consumer spending, with retail sales up 5.7% y-o-y in March, while resource export volumes continue to rise strongly. More broadly, businesses are reporting improved trading conditions, consistent with a further increase in domestic demand. Stronger activity is also supporting the labour market, with solid jobs growth in April and the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.8%, down from 6.0% in February. Higher frequency indicators continue to point to further improvement in the labour market.
Australia GDP Australia PMI Manufacturing
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
Australia Inflation v/s Policy rate Australia NAB Business survey
`
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13
GDP y-o-y (LHS) GDP q-o-q saar (RHS)
% y -o-y % q-o-q saar
30
34
38
42
46
50
54
58
30
34
38
42
46
50
54
58
Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
PMI Manufacturing New Orders Index
Index , sa Index , sa
012345678
012345678
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inflation (LHS) Policy rate (RHS)
% y -o-y %
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Business conditions:actual Business conditions:expected
Index Index
Paul Bloxham, Economist HSBC Australia Limited +612 9255 2635 [email protected]
Adam Richardson, Economist HSBC Australia Limited +612 9006 5848 [email protected]
Indicator Last 12 data
points DoR* Unit
Mar Trade Balance
1-May AUD m
RBA Cash Target
6-May %
Mar Retail Sales
7-May % m-o-m
Apr Emp Change
8-May ‘000s
Apr Unemployment
8-May %
* Date of Release
27
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
China News Highlights
On 12 May, the State Council issued new capital market reforms to be rolled out in the next five years. These include inroads into the equity, bond and futures markets to reduce government involvement and broaden private sector participation in financing growth. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on 10 May announced it is granting telecom pricing autonomy to all operators in China. Telcos can now freely design service packages and set prices based on consumer needs and market conditions.
Data Trends
At 48.1 in April, the HSBC manufacturing PMI continued to disappoint although domestic demand and output stabilized from their March readings. The HSBC services PMI also eased in the month. Export figures rebounded after two consecutive months of contraction. Exports and imports rose 0.9% y-o-y and 0.8% y-o-y respectively in April. IP eased to 8.7% y-o-y whereas retail sales fell to 11.9% y-o-y in April. Disinflationary pressures continued to build this month – CPI eased to 1.85% y-o-y on declining vegetable and pork prices. On the credit side, M2 growth rebounded in April but lending still remains weak, likely weighing on investment growth.
China GDP China PMI
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
China HSBC manufacturing PMI China HSBC services PMI
Source: Markit, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
3
6
9
12
15
Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14
GDP y-o-y (LHS) GDP q-o-q saar (RHS)
% y -o-y % q-o-q saar
474849505152535455
474849505152535455
Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
PMI Manufacturing Business Activity Index
Index , sa Index , sa
Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-1448.1 48.0 48.547.9 47.2 48.847.4 46.5 48.650.7 51.0 50.1-3.3 -4.5 -1.546.5 41.7 45.046.4 41.5 46.80.1 0.2 -1.8
48.9 51.3 48.547.9 49.4 47.2
>50 + rising >50 + falling <50 + rising <50 + falling
unchanged above 50 Unchanged below 50
PMI ManufacturingOutputNew OrdersInventoriesNew Orders - InventoryOutput PricesInput PricesOutput Prices - Input PricesNew export ordersEmployment
Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-1451.4 51.9 51.050.3 51.7 50.8
New Business 51.4 51.3 51.4Input Prices 51.2 52.8 51.6Outstanding Business 49.7 49.8 48.6Business Expectations 60.7 63.1 62.2
>50 + rising >50 + falling <50 + rising <50 + falling
unchanged above 50 Unchanged below 50
Business ActivityEmployment
Qu Hongbin, Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2822 2025 [email protected]
Julia Wang, Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 3604 3663 [email protected]
Indicator Last 12 data
points DoR* Unit
Apr HSBC PMI
5-May Index
Apr Exports
8-May % y-o-y
Apr CPI
9-May % y-o-y
Apr M2
12-May % y-o-y
Apr IP
13-May % y-o-y
* Date of Release
28
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Hong Kong News Highlights
The HKMA stated that the risks to Hong Kong banks from lending to Mainland China are manageable, as it is supported by genuine economic activity. Loans to Chinese borrowers by banks in Hong Kong, including branches of Mainland banks, surged 30% last year. The increased holdings of bonds traded in China’s interbank market and trade-related activities are also among the reasons for the increase, according to Arthur Yuen, the HKMA’s deputy chief executive. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange plans to list coal and industrial metal futures on its trading platform. It also expects to offer RMB-denominated futures for zinc, copper and nickel by the end of 2014.
Data Trends
The HSBC Hong Kong PMI fell further to 49.7 in March, the lowest reading since August 2013, on slowing output and a sharp reversal in new business from China. Retail sales were also weak in March, contracting 1.3% y-o-y and 2.3% y-o-y in value and volume terms respectively, while the trade deficit also widened. However, price pressures remained subdued in March, with CPI unchanged at 3.9% y-o-y. The unemployment rate was unchanged for the third consecutive month in March at 3.1%, the lowest rate since the 1990s. A relatively tight labor market is therefore not translating into higher prices just yet.
Hong Kong GDP HSBC Hong Kong PMI
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
Hong Kong Inflation v/s Policy rate HSBC Hong Kong PMI
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13
GDP y-o-y (LHS) GDP q-o-q saar (RHS)
% y -o-y % q-o-q saar
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
PMI New Orders Index
Index , sa Index , sa
-3
0
3
6
9
-3
0
3
6
9
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inflation (LHS) HIBOR-3 months rate (RHS)
% y -o-y %Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-1449.7 49.9 53.349.4 49.2 55.150.3 49.1 54.850.0 52.0 53.40.3 -2.9 1.4
51.5 51.2 54.455.5 53.5 56.2-3.9 -2.3 -1.947.2 50.5 54.149.5 51.1 50.4
>50 + rising >50 + falling <50 + rising <50 + falling
unchanged above 50 Unchanged below 50
PMIOutputNew OrdersInventoriesNew Orders - InventoryOutput PricesInput PricesOutput Prices - Input PricesNew Business from ChinaEmployment
John Zhu, Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2996 6621 [email protected]
Rini Sen, Economics Associate Bangalore
Indicator Last 12 data
points DoR* Unit
Apr PMI
7-May Index
1Q-2014 GDP
16-May % y-o-y
Apr CPI
22-May % y-o-y
Apr Exports
27-May % y-o-y
Apr Imports
27-May % y-o-y
* Date of Release
29
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
India News Highlights
Exit polls suggested the NDA-led coalition would comfortably win the elections, but these polls have been unreliable in the past (source: Reuters). The Planning Commission will recommend a more business friendly version of the land acquisition bill to the new government. Lower expenditure due to election code of conduct may have lowered FY14 fiscal deficit to 4.5% (vs. 4.6% revised estimate) according to a finance ministry official. The World Bank estimated that India is the third largest economy in PPP terms. The current account deficit for FY13-14 fell to USD32bn (1.7% of GDP), according to the finance ministry. India Meteorological Department expects monsoon rainfall to be 5% below normal due to El Nino.
Data Trends
The manufacturing PMI was broadly unchanged despite softer readings for output. This was largely the result of firmer domestic demand, which countered the slowdown in export orders. Meanwhile, services PMI readings for activity and new business flows improved, but remained below the water line. The trade balance was broadly unchanged in April at USD10.1bn vs. USD10.5bn in March. Exports bounced back and imports declined further in annual terms. Industrial production continued to contract in annual terms in March. Meanwhile, CPI inflation rose more than expected due to food price, but core CPI eased slightly.
India GDP India PMI
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
HSBC India manufacturing PMI HSBC India services PMI
Source: Markit, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13
GDP y-o-y (LHS) GDP q-o-q saar (RHS)
% y -o-y % q-o-q saar
444648505254565860
444648505254565860
Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
PMI Manufacturing Business Activity Index
Index , sa Index , sa
Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14PMI Manufacturing 51.3 51.3 52.5Output 51.7 52.2 54.0New Orders 52.5 52.7 54.9Inventories 52.7 51.4 51.4
-0.2 1.3 3.550.9 51.0 51.454.6 57.2 61.0-3.7 -6.2 -9.6
New export orders 53.0 56.8 54.1Employment 50.2 50.2 50.2
>50 + rising >50 + falling <50 + rising <50 + falling
unchanged above 50 Unchanged below 50
New Orders - InventoryOutput PricesInput PricesOutput Prices - Input Prices
Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-1448.5 47.5 48.849.8 51.2 50.1
New Business 48.4 47.6 49.5Input Prices 53.9 53.2 53.9Outstanding Business 52.1 52.2 48.2Business Expectations 65.8 66.0 63.4
>50 + rising >50 + falling <50 + rising <50 + falling
unchanged above 50 Unchanged below 50
Business ActivityEmployment
Leif Eskesen, Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch +65 6658 8962 [email protected]
Prithviraj Srinivas, Economics Associate Bangalore
Indicator Last 12 data
points DoR* Unit
Apr Mfg PMI
2-May Index
Apr Exports
9-May % y-o-y
Apr Imports
9-May % y-o-y
Mar IIP
12-May % y-o-y
1Q-2014 GDP
30-May % y-o-y
* Date of Release
30
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Indonesia News Highlights
The official tally of the 9 April legislative polls confirmed that the PDI-P had won the most votes (18.9%), followed by Golkar and Gerinda, at 14.8% and 11.8%, respectively. Including NasDem and the PKB, the PDI-P-led coalition garnered 34.7% of the vote. PDI-P presidential nominee Joko Widodo said he would phase out fuel subsidies gradually over four years if elected, because the subsidy bill was too large and could be used for more productive industries. S&P reaffirmed the country’s credit rating just one notch below investment grade at BB+, saying that fiscal reform and the state of governance would be important in its future assessment.
Data Trends
Q1 GDP growth slowed to 5.2% y-o-y from 5.7% in Q4. Seasonally adjusted, q-o-q growth decelerated to 1.0%, the slowest since the Lehman crisis and below long-term trend growth of around 1.5%. Although private consumption was stronger than we expected, sub-trend investment spending and a sequential contraction in imports suggest that monetary tightening will continue to cool domestic demand in a broad-based manner. After the GDP report Bank Indonesia (BI) kept policy on hold, but trimmed its 2014 growth forecast to 5.1-5.5% from 5.5-5.9% earlier. April inflation remained stable at 7.3% y-o-y, while trade balance posted a modest surplus of USD673m in March.
Indonesia GDP Indonesia PMI Manufacturing
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
Indonesia Inflation v/s Policy rate HSBC Indonesia manufacturing PMI
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
GDP y-o-y (LHS) GDP q-o-q saar (RHS)
% y -o-y % q-o-q saar
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
PMI Manufacturing New Orders Index
Index , sa Index , sa
3
6
9
12
15
0
5
10
15
20
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inflation (LHS) Policy rate (RHS)
% y -o-y %Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14
PMI 51.1 50.1 50.5Output 49.8 49.8 50.3New Orders 52.7 51.2 50.3Inventories 49.5 49.8 48.9
3.2 1.4 1.456.0 55.4 57.460.3 60.0 65.7-4.3 -4.6 -8.3
New export orders 50.9 50.4 50.8Employment 50.2 48.2 48.7
>50 + rising >50 + falling <50 + rising <50 + falling
unchanged above 50 Unchanged below 50
New Orders - InventoryOutput PricesInput PricesOutput Prices - Input Prices
Su Sian Lim, Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch +65 6658 8963 [email protected]
Abanti Bhaumik, Economics Associate Bangalore
Indicator Last 12 data
points DoR* Unit
Apr Mfg PMI
2-May Index
Apr CPI
2-May % y-o-y
Mar Exports
2-May % y-o-y
1Q-2014 GDP
5-May % y-o-y
Reference rate
8-May %
* Date of Release
31
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Japan News Highlights
US President Obama made a state visit to Japan on 23-25 April. Though there were hopes that the President's visit would yield a breakthrough in the stalled Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations, the two sides were unable to reach an agreement. According to media reports, progress was made on tariff discussions for beef, dairy, rice, barley, and sugar. However, there remained disagreements over pork tariffs and safety standards for US auto exports to Japan. Discussions will continue at the ministerial level at TPP talks in Vietnam (12-15 May). Meanwhile, in early April, Japan announced that it had concluded an economic partnership agreement (EPA) with Australia after seven years of negotiation.
Data Trends
Consumption-related indices registered a sharp pick-up in March, thanks to front-loaded spending in the run-up to the 1 April tax hike. Department store sales were up 25% y-o-y, and retail sales jumped 6.3% m-o-m sa in March. Meanwhile, real household spending surged 10.8% m-o-m sa, beating even the most aggressive analyst estimates. Preliminary reports from retail shops – though highly anecdotal – suggest that the "payback" from the tax hike has been no worse than feared. April business surveys have shown deterioration in corporate sentiment, with Reuters Tankan, Shoko Chukin SME survey, and Markit PMIs all pointing to a slowdown in activity. But firms see momentum picking up again in the near term.
Japan GDP Japan PMI
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
Japan Inflation v/s Policy rate Japan manufacturing PMI
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
Jun-06 Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Dec-13
GDP y-o-y (LHS) GDP q-o-q saar (RHS)
% y -o-y % q-o-q saar
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
PMI Manufacturing Business Activity Index
Index , sa Index , sa
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inflation (LHS) Policy rate (RHS)
% y -o-y % Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14PMI 49.4 53.9 55.5Output 46.2 54.2 58.4New Orders 47.4 54.9 56.2Inventories 50.0 50.3 50.6
-2.6 4.5 5.650.1 49.8 51.855.3 57.8 58.5-5.3 -8.0 -6.6
New export orders 49.1 52.3 51.5Employment 53.8 52.6 53.7
>50 + rising >50 + falling <50 + rising <50 + falling
unchanged above 50 Unchanged below 50
Input Prices
New Orders - InventoryOutput Prices
Output Prices - Input Prices
Izumi Devalier, Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2822 1647 [email protected]
Indicator Last 12 data
points DoR* Unit
Apr Mfg PMI
7-May Index
Mar CI-prelim**
9-May Index
1Q-2014 GDP
15-May % y-o-y
Mar IP-final
16-May % y-o-y
Apr Exports
21-May % y-o-y
* Date of Release ** Coincident Index
32
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Korea News Highlights
The 16 April Sewol ferry disaster is expected to weigh on Korea’s economic activity in Q2. In response, the government announced on 9 May that it will increase its front-loaded spending by allocating 57% of its 2014 budget into H1 from 55%. The Bank of Korea will provide support to impacted firms, mainly from the transport and tourism industries, by using money from its small- and medium-sized enterprise lending facility. Private consumption growth, which fell from 0.6% q-o-q sa to 0.3% in Q1, may slow further and dip into negative territory in Q2.
Data Trends
Korea is on track to close its output gap by year-end. Strong sequential GDP growth was sustained in Q1 and export growth in April beat market expectations. However, the HSBC Korea PMI showed that manufacturers also recorded a decline in new export orders. Hence such strong shipment growth may be difficult to sustain. While growth is in line with the Bank of Korea’s baseline scenario, uncertainty over the growth in key emerging market economies, such as China, and the impact of the Sewol ferry incident remain a downside risk. We expect the Bank of Korea to keep its policy rate low at 2.50% in H1 2014 to support the recovery.
Korea GDP Korea PMI Manufacturing
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
Korea Inflation v/s Policy rate HSBC Korea manufacturing PMI
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
-18
-9
0
9
18
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14
GDP y-o-y (LHS) GDP q-o-q saar (RHS)
% y -o-y % q-o-q saar
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
PMI Manufacturing New Orders Index
Index , sa Index , sa
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inflation (LHS) Policy rate (RHS)
% y -o-y %Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14
PMI 50.2 50.4 49.8Output 49.8 50.4 49.7New Orders 50.0 50.4 49.9Inventories 49.6 48.5 47.8
0.4 1.9 2.247.7 48.3 48.247.9 47.8 49.8-0.2 0.5 -1.6
New export orders 49.9 50.7 50.5Employment 50.9 51.9 50.6
>50 + rising >50 + falling <50 + rising <50 + falling
unchanged above 50 Unchanged below 50
New Orders - InventoryOutput PricesInput PricesOutput Prices - Input Prices
Ronald Man, Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2996 6743 [email protected]
Indicator Last 12 data
points DoR* Unit
Apr Exports
1-May % y-o-y
Apr CPI
1-May % y-o-y
Apr HSBC PMI
2-May Index
7-Day Repo Rate
9-May %
Apr IP
30-May % y-o-y
* Date of Release
33
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Malaysia News Highlights
Second finance minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah said efforts to reduce the cost of living and aspects of subsidy rationalization will continue to be the government’s main focus in preparing the 2015 budget, which is expected to be tabled in Parliament on 10 October. There will also be emphasis on the entrepreneurship sector. Meanwhile the agriculture ministry said it was making plans to brace for El Nino in H2, with the weather pattern potentially hurting the production of rice and other crops. Separately, BNM Governor Zeti said the economy remains vibrant, and that the financial system is able to cope with volatility of capital flows.
Data Trends
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.00% in May. But it said “the degree of monetary accommodation may need to be adjusted” and that “inflation ... is expected to remain above its long-run average due to higher domestic cost factors”. We look for two 25bp rate hikes from the 10 July meeting, taking the policy rate to 3.50% by the year-end. March CPI remained stable but above BNM’s comfort range at 3.5% y-o-y, but our estimates of core suggested that underlying inflation continued to creep higher to 2.4% y-o-y. Meanwhile the trade surplus narrowed slightly in March, to MYR9.6bn, as exports rose 8.4% y-o-y and imports gained just 0.5% y-o-y.
Malaysia GDP Malaysia Commodity Prices
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
Malaysia Inflation v/s Policy rate Malaysia Exports v/s IP
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
Jun-06 Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Dec-13
GDP y-o-y (LHS) GDP q-o-q saar (RHS)
% y -o-y % q-o-q saar
6
9
12
15
18
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14
Palm Oil Price (LHS) Rubber Price (RHS)
MYR/ton MYR/kg
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inflation (LHS) Policy rate (RHS)
% y -o-y %
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14
Exports IP
% y -o-y % y -o-y
Su Sian Lim, Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch +65 6658 8963 [email protected]
Abanti Bhaumik, Economics Associate Bangalore
Indicator Last 12 data
points DoR* Unit
Mar Exports
7-May % y-o-y
BNM Policy Rate
8-May %
Mar IP
12-May % y-o-y
1Q-2014 GDP
16-May % y-o-y
Apr CPI
21-May % y-o-y
* Date of Release
34
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
New Zealand News Highlights
The RBNZ has offered its initial assessment of the macro-prudential tools it adopted last year. It sees the policy as having been effective, having restricted the pace of high loan-to-value ratio (LVR) lending to 4.8% of new lending (below the mandated 10% maximum), down from a rate of 25% prior to implementation. Credit growth has also slowed and the RBNZ’s modelling suggests the policy has dampened house price inflation. Despite this, house price inflation is currently at +8.5% y-o-y and near-record levels of migrant inflows are likely to provide on-going support. The RBNZ indicated that LVR restrictions are likely to remain in place until at least later this year.
Data Trends
Recent data continue to point to strong growth in New Zealand. Inward migration was at the second highest level on record in March. New Zealand’s labour market continues to improve, with employment growth running at +3.7% y-o-y in Q1 and business confidence remains well above average levels. With the economy continuing to pick up strongly, the RBNZ raised its cash rate by a further 25bp in April. Further rate hikes are likely in the near term, as economic momentum continues to build. However, the recent strength of the NZD and the recent fall in dairy prices from very elevated levels should also help to keep the economy from overheating.
New Zealand GDP New Zealand PMI
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
New Zealand Inflation v/s Policy rate inflation New Zealand Manufacturing PMI
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
-6-4-20246810
-6-4-202468
10
Jun-06 Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Dec-13
GDP y-o-y (LHS) GDP q-o-q saar (RHS)
% y -o-y % q-o-q saar
45
50
55
60
65
45
50
55
60
65
Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
PMI Manufacturing New Orders Index
Index , sa Index , sa
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inflation (LHS) Policy rate (RHS)
% y -o-y %Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14
PMI 58.4 56.5 56.4Output 60.5 59.0 59.7New Orders 60.5 57.0 59.9Inventories 51.1 49.4 48.7New Orders-Inventory 9.4 7.7 11.2Employment 56.3 54.7 51.0
>50 + rising >50 + falling <50 + rising <50 + falling
unchanged above 50 Unchanged below 50
Paul Bloxham, Economist HSBC Bank Australia Limited +612 9255 2635 [email protected]
Adam Richardson, Economist HSBC Bank Australia Limited +612 9006 5848 [email protected]
Indicator Last 12 data
points DoR* Unit
Apr PMI
15-May Index
Apr Net Migration
21-May ‘000s
Apr Exports
26-May % y-o-y
Apr Imports
26-May % y-o-y
Apr Trade Balance
26-May NZD m
* Date of Release
35
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Philippines News Highlights
S&P raised the Philippines' rating one notch to BBB. Following the upgrade, Governor Tetangco commented that the strengthening of the PHP will help temper inflationary pressures. Weather experts estimate that the Philippines will likely receive below-average rainfall in Q4 2014 and Q1 2015 and have a more volatile tropical cyclone pattern. This means that while the impact of Typhoon Haiyan is still lingering, the Philippines will potentially experience more supply shocks in H2 2014. While the Supreme Court extended indefinitely the temporary restraining order it issued against Manila Electric Company over the increase of electricity prices, risks to accelerating inflation remain.
Data Trends
Inflation rose 4.1% y-o-y in April from 3.9% in March; with the storm season approaching and agricultural output lower this year, prices will likely accelerate in the summer months. M3 increased in March to 34.8% y-o-y due to higher deposits; credit also accelerated to 18.3% y-o-y from 18.0% in February. Excess liquidity is a concern but manageable; the BSP kept policy rates on hold but raised the RRR by 1ppt to 20%. Net FDI declined by 59% in February to USD350m, according to the BSP.
Philippines GDP Philippines Trade
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
Philippines Inflation v/s Policy rate Philippines Overseas Remittances
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
-12-9-6-303691215
-12-9-6-30369
1215
Jun-06 Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Dec-13
GDP y-o-y (LHS) GDP q-o-q saar (RHS)
% y -o-y % q-o-q saar
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Balance of Trade (RHS) Exports (LHS) Imports (LHS)
USD m% y -o-y
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inflation (LHS) Policy rate (RHS)
% y -o-y %
-12-9-6-3036912
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14
% y-o-y (RHS) % m-o-m sa (LHS)
% y -o-y % y -o-y
Trinh Nguyen, Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2996 6975 [email protected]
Indicator Last 12 data
points DoR* Unit
Apr CPI
6-May % y-o-y
BSP Policy Rate
8-May %
Mar Exports
9-May % y-o-y
Mar Remittances
15-May % y-o-y
1Q-2014 GDP
29-May % y-o-y
* Date of Release
36
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Singapore News Highlights
Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam took over as Chairman of the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB)’s international advisory council (IAC) on 1 May. As per the EDB, manufacturers in Singapore are upbeat about their prospects over the next six months; the precision engineering cluster is the most optimistic. Singapore attracted 15.6m tourists in 2013, a record for the country. Singapore and the US agreed to facilitate compliance of Singapore financial institutions with US tax laws.
Data Trends
CPI inflation picked up, mainly on account of a smaller fall in car prices. Contributions from all other sectors, except accommodation, were also slightly higher. Non-oil domestic exports fell in March, with the volatile pharmaceuticals sector pulling down growth. Manufacturing output continued to grow at a sharp pace in March supported by both the biomedical and the transport engineering clusters. PMIs from April indicate that the pickup in factory output is set to continue supported by new export orders.
Singapore GDP Singapore PMI
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
Singapore Inflation v/s Policy rate Singapore PMI
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
-18-12-6061218243036
-18-12-606
1218243036
Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14
GDP y-o-y (LHS) GDP q-o-q saar (RHS)
% y -o-y % q-o-q saar
46474849
505152
5354
46474849
505152
5354
Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
PMI Manufacturing New Orders Index
Index , sa Index , sa
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2-1012345678
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14Inflation (LHS) Policy rate (RHS)
% y -o-y %Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14
PMI 51.1 50.8 50.9Output 52.3 51.5 51.9New Orders 52.4 50.8 51.2Inventories 50.5 49.9 50.8
1.9 0.9 0.4
50.8 50.2 50.5
New export orders 52.5 51.7 51.5Employment 49.7 50.7 50.1
>50 + rising >50 + falling <50 + rising <50 + falling
unchanged above 50 Unchanged below 50
New Orders - InventoryOutput PricesInput PricesOutput Prices - Input Prices
Leif Eskesen, Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch +65 6658 8962 [email protected]
Prithviraj Srinivas, Economics Associate Bangalore
Indicator Last 12 data
points DoR* Unit
Apr PMI
5-May Index
Mar Retail Sales
15-May % y-o-y
Apr NODX
16-May % y-o-y
1Q-2014 GDP-final
20-May % y-o-y
Apr CPI
23-May % y-o-y
* Date of Release
37
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Sri Lanka News Highlights
The IMF raised its 2014 GDP growth forecast for Sri Lanka from 6.5% to 7%. The government is confident of achieving its target of a per-capita income of USD4,000 by 2015, one year before the target date. The central bank governor has asked banks to change their attitude towards lending to SMEs and allocate more loans to these. On the recent UNHRC resolution against Sri Lanka, the president noted that “except for an international inquiry, we are in the process of implementing all other demands made by sponsors of the resolution”. Fitch affirms Sri Lanka's rating at 'BB-' with stable outlook. It believes risks to the rating outlook were well balanced.
Data Trends
The central bank of Sri Lanka kept policy rates on hold as expected in April. The statement noted that inflation continued to moderate, but also that the drought may push up food inflation in coming months. Annual inflation picked up in April on a weak base in the previous year and price increases for food. Meanwhile, core CPI was unchanged. The trade deficit continued to narrow as a result of an increase in exports and a decline in imports. Remittance and tourism receipts improved as well, helping to lower the current account deficit.
Sri Lanka GDP Sri Lanka Trade
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
Sri Lanka Inflation v/s Policy rate Sri Lanka Domestic credit v/s Money supply
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
-20246810121416
-202468
10121416
Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13
GDP y-o-y (LHS) GDP q-o-q saar (RHS)
% y -o-y % q-o-q saar
-150
-75
0
75
150
-60
-30
0
30
60
Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14
Balance of Trade (RHS) Imports (LHS) Exports (LHS)
LKR bn% y -o-y
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inflation (LHS) Policy rate (RHS)
% y -o-y %
5
10
15
20
25
-15
0
15
30
45
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14Domestic credit: Private (LHS) M2 (RHS)
% y -o-y % y -o-y
Leif Eskesen, Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch +65 6658 8962 [email protected]
Prithviraj Srinivas, Economics Associate Bangalore
Indicator Last 12 data
points DoR* Unit
Feb Exports
5-May % y-o-y
Feb Imports
5-May % y-o-y
Deposit Rate
22-25 May %
Lending Rate
22-25 May %
May CPI
30-May % y-o-y
* Date of Release
38
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Taiwan News Highlights
In a bid to contain soaring property prices, the Legislature’s Finance Committee approved an amendment to increase the minimum and maximum housing tax to 1.5% (from 1.2%) and 3.6% (from 2%) respectively. If passed, the amendment will come into effect in May 2015, affecting 15% of Taiwan’s population. Labour Minister Pan Shih-wei said that the basic minimum wage could be adapted differently by region to mitigate the widening wealth gap between the north and south. There was renewed speculation that Taiwan’s move to merge its four public pension funds (combined assets of USD100bn) will eventually lead to the creation of a sovereign wealth fund.
Data Trends
Taiwan’s Q1 2014 GDP was in line with market expectations at 3.0% y-o-y. Strong private consumption and lower imports offset weak investment. However, sequential growth slowed to 0.3% q-o-q sa from 1.3% in Q4 2013. The HSBC Taiwan PMI eased further to 52.3 in April from 52.7 in March although new export orders accelerated, and actual export orders also picked up in March, rising 5.9% y-o-y. Meanwhile, CPI rose 1.65% y-o-y in April, marginally higher than consensus expectations. We expect prices to trend upwards in Q2 but remain well under the CBC’s comfort zone.
Taiwan GDP Taiwan PMI Manufacturing
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
Taiwan Inflation v/s Policy rate HSBC Taiwan manufacturing PMI
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
-20-15-10-50510152025
-20-15-10-505
10152025
Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14
GDP y-o-y (LHS) GDP q-o-q saar (RHS)
% y -o-y % q-o-q saar
424446485052545658
424446485052545658
Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
PMI Manufacturing New Export Orders Index
Index , sa Index , sa
1
2
3
4
-3-2-10123456
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inflation (LHS) Policy rate (RHS)
% y -o-y %Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14
PMI 52.3 52.7 54.7Output 54.0 54.3 57.2New Orders 54.5 54.1 57.8Inventories 48.8 51.2 50.4
5.7 2.9 7.448.2 48.1 49.252.2 52.5 54.4-4.0 -4.3 -5.3
New export orders 54.8 53.8 56.7Employment 50.8 51.2 50.9
>50 + rising >50 + falling <50 + rising <50 + falling
unchanged above 50 Unchanged below 50
Input Prices
New Orders - InventoryOutput Prices
Output Prices - Input Prices
John Zhu, Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2996 6621 [email protected]
Rini Sen, Economics Associate Bangalore
Indicator Last 12 data
points DoR* Unit
Apr Mfg PMI
2-May Index
Apr CPI
6-May % y-o-y
Apr Exports
7-May % y-o-y
Apr IP
23-May % y-o-y
1Q-2014 GDP-final
23-May % y-o-y
* Date of Release
39
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Thailand News Highlights
The Constitutional Court ruled that caretaker PM Yingluck and nine other cabinet ministers acted illegally in the transfer of former national security head Thawil Pliensri in 2011 (source: Bloomberg, 7 May). Following the verdict, Ms Yingluck could be impeached, but that would require a 3/5 vote from the senate. The 20 July election date is now also in doubt. Separately, the anti-corruption office also indicted Ms Yingluck over the controversial rice scheme; if also found guilty by the Supreme Court, she could face a five-year ban from politics.
Data Trends
Headline inflation rose to a 12-month high of 2.5% y-o-y in April, bringing the four-month average to 2.1% vs. 2% in Q1. Core inflation also grew at a faster pace of 1.7%, as the dry season damaged crops and lifted processed food prices. Meanwhile the trade balance reverted to a surplus of USD706m in Q1 2014 vs a deficit of USD2.6bn in Q4 2013. However this was on the back of weak imports (as domestic demand slowed), rather than exports. The latter was down -3.1% y-o-y in March after a brief upturn in February.
Thailand GDP BoT Investment and Consumption Indicators (%3m/3m saar)
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
Thailand Inflation v/s Policy rate Thailand Business Sentiment Index
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC
-40-30-20-100102030405060
-20-15-10-505
1015202530
Jun-06 Dec-07 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-12 Dec-13
GDP y-o-y (LHS) GDP q-o-q saar (RHS)
% y -o-y % q-o-q saar
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Investment Index (LHS) Consumption Index (RHS)
% 3m/3m saar % 3m/3m saar
0.000.751.502.253.003.754.505.256.00
-6-4-202468
10
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inflation (LHS) Policy rate (RHS)
% y -o-y %Mar-14 Feb-14 Jan-14
Business Sentiment Index 46.4 46.0 45.5New Orders 45.3 46.1 44.9Inventories 46.4 46.2 43.0
-1.1 -0.1 1.944.9 42.5 42.438.0 40.4 37.16.9 2.1 5.3
Employment 51.3 50.5 49.7
>50 + rising >50 + falling <50 + rising <50 + falling
unchanged above 50 Unchanged below 50
New Orders - InventoryOutput PricesInput PricesOutput Prices - Input Prices
Su Sian Lim, Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch +65 6658 8963 [email protected]
Abanti Bhaumik, Economics Associate Bangalore
Indicator Last 12 data
points DoR* Unit
Apr CPI
1-May % y-o-y
1Q-2014 GDP
19-May % y-o-y
Apr Exports
23-27 May % y-o-y
Apr Imports
23-27 May % y-o-y
Apr Mfg Prod
28-May % y-o-y
* Date of Release
40
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Vietnam News Highlights
The head of management of Vietnam Railway Authority was arrested for allegedly “abusing positions and powers while performing official duties” (source: Bloomberg, 9 May). He will be the sixth official detained in connection with the Japanese ODA funded Hanoi urban railway project. The Prime Minister approved 127 public works projects requiring foreign investment by 2020, including a refinery, airport and railway. For example, the first phase of Long Thanh International Airport requires USD5.6bn of foreign investment. The Bien Hoa - Vung Tau Railway project requires USD5bn in foreign investment.
Data Trends
The headline PMI Index increased sharply to 53.1 in April from 51.3 in March. Output, new orders, new export orders, and employment rose. New export orders have increased in the past two months to reflect rising demand from the US and the Eurozone. However, Thailand is expected to dump its rice stockpile into the global market in Q2 2014, which will likely drive global prices lower, reducing the value of Vietnam rice exports. CPI rose slightly in April on a month-on-month basis but was still very low in comparison to the historical average. Even with an assumption of higher social service and electricity costs in August and September, we expect headline to end at 5.6% y-o-y in 2014.
Vietnam GDP Vietnam PMI Manufacturing
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
Vietnam Inflation v/s Refinancing rate HSBC Vietnam PMI
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: Markit, HSBC
2
4
6
8
10
2
4
6
8
10
Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14
GDP y-o-y
% y -o-y % y -o-y
404244464850525456
404244464850525456
Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
PMI Manufacturing New Orders Index
Index , sa Index , sa
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
08 09 10 11 12 13 14Inflation (LHS) Refinancing rate (RHS)
% y -o-y %Apr-14 Mar-14 Feb-14
PMI 53.1 51.3 51.0Output 53.7 52.3 51.4New Orders 54.9 53.0 51.8Inventories 50.3 48.2 43.3
4.5 4.8 8.649.3 49.5 50.055.6 53.9 54.4-6.3 -4.5 -4.4
New export orders 53.7 52.7 49.4Employment 52.2 49.2 50.9
>50 + rising >50 + falling <50 + rising <50 + falling
unchanged above 50 Unchanged below 50
Output PricesInput PricesOutput Prices - Input Prices
New Orders - Inventory
Trinh Nguyen, Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2996 6975 [email protected]
Indicator Last 12 data
points DoR* Unit
Apr Mfg PMI
2-May Index
May CPI
24-May % y-o-y
May Exports-ytd
26-30 May % y-o-y
May Retail Sales**
26-30 May % y-o-y
May IP
26-30 May % y-o-y
* Date of Release **ytd
41
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Asia Brief Should we worry about corporate leverage in Asia?
In recent years, corporations in much of Asia – as in other parts of the world – have shifted their funding mix away from equity towards debt. This is partly the result of quantitative easing by central banks in advanced markets, as well as credit easing in China. Our first chart below shows the decline in equity issuance last year compared with 2007. Note the drop in China, where the equity market was roaring in 2007 but has treaded water since. Singapore and Japan are two exceptions. The former is a regional financial centre and the data might therefore not reflect a rise in stock issuance by local companies. In the latter, the liquidity-fuelled rally in the equity market last year probably explains the rise in issuance, but this may prove temporary as corporate Japan remains awash in cash and debt financing as cheap as anywhere in the world.
One measure of corporate leverage is the debt-to-equity ratio. Chart 2 shows this for listed companies in Asia (excluding financial firms). Note that the debt-to-equity ratio has risen in most markets, and quite sharply so in China, Thailand, the Philippines, and Singapore last year compared to 2007. However, there are other markets where it has declined in recent years, with listed firms in Indonesia, for instance, now having the lowest debt-to-equity ratio in Asia. In short, from this perspective, the build-up in corporate leverage has been quite uneven across the region in the last few years.
The trouble with the analysis so far, of course, is that it focuses on listed firms. This is a good starting point, since data is available in greater detail than for the corporate sector as a whole. However, most companies in Asia are not listed. It’s therefore useful to look at total private sector indebtedness (although this also includes loans to households, which is not corporate debt). Chart 3 uses a definition from the World Bank. Note that, as a share of GDP, this has increased everywhere since 2007, except for Sri Lanka and Japan.
But back to listed companies. That debt has become a more prominent source of funding than equity is clear from the data. But, to what extent, are firms taking on too much leverage? One useful measure is “interest cover” or the ratio of profits to interest rate expenses. If this falls, then companies have a smaller cushion against unforeseen shocks, such as a rise in interest rates or a downturn in profits. Compared with 2007, the interest cover has fallen in most Asian markets and in some cases quite sharply; Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Malaysia are the exceptions. In sum: keep an eye on corporate leverage.
Chart 1: Lower equity raised in all markets except Japan and Singapore Chart 2: Leverage has risen, but below pre-Asian financial crisis levels
Source: Bloomberg, HSBC equity strategy team. NB: based on announcement by firms Source: Thomson DataStream, Bloomberg, HSBC. NB: MSCI (ex financials) country indices, India is FY13
Chart 3: However, economies are more credit driven now Chart 4: Profit cover has declined despite lower interest rates
Source: World Bank, HSBC Source: Thomson DataStream, Bloomberg, HSBC. NB: MSCI (ex financials) country indices, India is FY13
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
CH HK IN AU SK TW SG JP
Equity issuance (USD bn)
2007 2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
HK MA SK ID IN TW SG CH TH PH
Leverage (Debt/Equity)
2007 2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
JN SL AU SK PH IN VN ID BD MA CH SG TH HK
Indebtedness (Total private credit/GDP)
2007 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
CH TH PH SG IN ID SK MA HK TW
Interest cover (EBITDA/interest expenses)
2013 2007
Frederic Neumann, Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2822 4556 [email protected]
Prithviraj Srinivas, Economics Associate Bangalore
42
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Momentum Heatmaps
Exports to the world
Source: CEIC, HSBC. Colour codes are based on the z-score of the year-on-year figures on a rolling 36 months basis.
Exports by destination
Source: CEIC, HSBC. Colour codes are based on the z-score of the year-on-year figures on a rolling 36 months basis.
Industrial Production
Source: CEIC, HSBC. Colour codes are based on the z-score of the year-on-year figures on a rolling 36 months basis.
Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14ChinaHong KongIndiaIndonesiaJapanKoreaMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeSri LankaTaiwanThailandVietnamAsiaAsia ex JNAsia ex JN & CH
Above average and rising Above average but falling Below average but rising Below average & falling
Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14ChinaHong KongIndiaIndonesiaJapanKoreaMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeSri LankaTaiwanThailandVietnamAsiaAsia ex JapanAsia ex Japan & China
Above average and rising Above average but falling Below average but rising Below average & falling
World US EU China
Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14ChinaHong KongIndiaIndonesiaJapanKoreaMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeSri LankaTaiwanThailandVietnamAsia ex JN & HK (simple)Asia ex JN & HK (weighted)
Above average and rising Above average but falling Below average but rising Below average & falling
43
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
China Data Dashboard
Source: Markit, CEIC, HSBC. Colour codes are based on the z-score of the year-on-year figures on a rolling 24 months basis, black denotes z-score less than -1.0, light grey denotes z-score between -1.0 and -0.5, white denotes z-score between -0.5 and 0.5, pink denotes z-score between 0.5 and 1.0, and red denotes z-score greater than 1.0.
Headline CPI
Source: CEIC, HSBC. Colour codes are based on the z-score of the year-on-year figures on a rolling 36 months basis.
F-12 M-12 A-12 M-12 J-12 J-12 A-12 S-12 O-12 N-12 D-12 J-13 F-13 M-13 A-13 M-13 J-13 J-13 A-13 S-13 O-13 N-13 D-13 J-14 F-14 M-14 A-14
Outstanding Loan Growth -0.8 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.05 0.2 0.09 0.05 -0.6 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -1.1 -1.4 -1.1 -1.3 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.3 -1 -1.1 n/a n/a
Total Social Finance/GDP -0.1 0.29 -1.1 -0.2 1.3 0.3 0.19 1.31 1.04 0.03 1.08 2 -0.4 1.74 0.84 -0.5 -1.3 -0.7 0.55 -0.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.6 1.6 -1.3 -0 -0.2
Real 7D Repo Rate -0.7 -0.4 -0.7 0.15 -1.7 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 -1 -0.8 -1.2 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -0.1 -1.7 -1.7 -1.1 -0.1 -0 -0.6 -0.4 -1.6 -1.2 0.8 -0.3 -0.8
M0 Real Growth -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.32 -0.1 -0 -0.5 -1.9 2.2 0.7 0.25 0.45 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -1.5 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 3.3 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9
M1 Real Growth -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0 2.6 0.7 1.71 1.56 1.41 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.34 0.28 0.44 0.51 -1.8 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5
M2 Real Growth -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 0.2 0.5 0.37 1.06 0.97 0.82 0.71 2 0.9 1.63 1.52 1.39 0.3 0.4 0.54 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 -1.7 -0.4
GDP Growth -2 -2.1 -2.2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.8 -1.6 -1.4 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.07 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3 n/a
Non-M PMI -0.3 -0.3 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 -2 -1.7 -2.3 -2.9 -1.7 -2.2 -2.4 -2.2 -1.2 -0.8 -0.9 -1.1 -0.6 -0.4 0.18 0.25 0.53 1.13 0.8 1 0.81 0.43
M PMI -0.7 0.5 0.74 -1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.5 -1 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 0.11 -0.1 0.18 -0.5 -0.3 0.43 0.54 0.8 0.74 0.27 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2
HSBC M PMI -0.8 -1.3 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -0.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.3 0.26 0.96 1.8 0.5 1.38 0.53 -0.3 -1 -1.3 0.51 0.57 1.12 0.96 0.62 -0.1 -0.8 -1.2 -1.1
PMI M Output -0.6 -1.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.6 -0.2 -0.9 -1.1 -0.8 0.37 0.8 1.6 0.5 1.66 0.7 0.49 -0.6 -0.9 0.62 0.24 0.73 1.26 0.76 0.4 -0.8 -1.7 -1.3
New Orders -1 -1.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.1 -0.7 -1.3 -0.9 0.24 0.27 1.08 1.6 0.7 1.42 0.64 -0.4 -0.8 -1.1 0.59 0.58 0.88 0.93 0.8 0.1 -0.6 -1.3 -1
New Orders-Inventory -1.2 -0.9 -0.5 -1.2 -1.4 -0.9 -1.9 -0.9 0.3 0.28 0.61 1 0.5 0.72 -0.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 0.77 0.67 0.86 0.8 -0.1 -0.5 -1.3 -0.9
IP 2.6 -1.1 -1.9 -1.6 -1.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.2 -1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 n/a n/a -1.6 -1.6
Electricity consump 1.6 -0.8 -1.3 -1 -1 -0.9 -1 -1 -0.5 -0.3 0.45 2.3 -2.7 -0.8 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.84 0.42 0.32 0.2 0.12 -1.3 1.1 0.09 n/a
Freight -0.2 -2 -1 -1 -1.6 -0.6 -2.2 -1.5 -1.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -1.7 -1.5 -2.4 -2.2 -0.8 2.1 -0.4 -0.3 0.35 1.29 0.36 -0.6 -1.2 -0.6 n/a
Business Climate -1.7 -1.7 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1 -1 -1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Fixed Asset Investment -2.8 -2.7 -2.6 -2.2 -1.8 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3 -1.1 -1 -1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -1 -1.9 -3.6 -2.9 -2.6 -2.4
Real Estate Climate -2 -2.1 -2.3 -2.2 -2 -1.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.4 -0.9 -0.9 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0 0.1 0.18 0.25 0.13 -0.1 0.59 0.4 0.4 0.03 n/a
Property Price -2.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.08 0.15 0.14 0.1 0.3 2.1 1.9 1.62 1.23 0.74 0.5 0.3 0.22 0.17 0.16 0.09 0.02 -1.8 -1.9 -1.5 n/a
Retail sales -1.6 -1.2 -1.6 -1.6 -1.5 -1.6 -1.4 -0.9 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 -1.6 -1.7 -1.4 -1.2 -1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -1.9 -1.7 -1.2 -1.4
Employment* 0.6 -2.2 -2.4 -2.1 -1.5 -1.9 -1.7 -1 -0.8 -0.4 0.56 1.3 0.7 0.54 -0.1 -0.7 -1.5 -1.4 -0.2 -0.2 1.27 -0.1 -0.2 -1.4 -1.4 0.69 -0.7
CPI -1.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -2 -2.1 -1.8 -1.7 -1.6 -1.3 -0.9 -1.1 -0.4 -1 -0.7 -0.8 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.25 0.55 0.39 -0.2 -0.1 -0.9 -0.1 -1.3
PPI -2.5 -2.2 -2.1 -2 -2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0 0.01 0.22 0.39 0.3 -0 -0.3 0.19
Wage 1.3 1.24 1 0.92 0.8 0.7 0.63 0.57 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Export -0.5 -1.2 -1.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.6 -1.3 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -0 1.2 0.8 -0.5 0.21 -1.5 -1.8 -0.7 -0.4 -1.3 -0.5 0.52 -0.6 0.2 -2.9 -1.5 -0.6
Import -1.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -2 -2.1 -1.8 -1.7 -1.6 -1.3 -0.9 -1.1 -0.4 -1 -0.7 -0.8 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.25 0.55 0.39 -0.2 -0.1 -0.9 -0.1 -1.3
New Export Orders -1.4 -1.4 0.01 -0.9 -2.3 -1.6 -2 -2 -1 1.35 0.12 0.8 0.7 0.73 -0.2 0.04 -1.8 -0.5 -0.6 0.89 1.19 0.8 0.25 -0 0 1.3 0.15
Terms of Trade -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 0.94 1.1 0.8 0.35 0.73 1.2 1 0.82 0.2 0.5 0.4 1.02 1.09 1.5 0.1 -0.9 0.09 0.34 0.24 -0.2 0.8 0.3 0.17 0.98
* Employment is from HSBC PMI Employment
Trade
Financing
Consumption
Investment
Growth
Deceleration Acceleration n/a Data n/a
May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14ChinaHong KongIndiaIndonesiaJapanKoreaMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeSri LankaTaiwanThailandVietnamAsia ex JN (simple)Asia ex JN (weighted)
Above average and rising Above average but falling Below average but rising Below average & falling
44
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Income inequality is a challenge in Asia, too
Click here for PDF
Books on economics rarely become instant best-
sellers. But Thomas Piketty’s “Capital in the
twenty-first century” managed the feat with
impressive speed. Only a few weeks after its
release in the United States, the French
professor’s tome sold out on Amazon and is
among the most widely reviewed books in years.
The author evidently struck a chord with the
American public.
– Frederic Neumann
Chart of the Week: So, who’s the biggest?
Click here for PDF
Plenty of headlines about it over the past couple
of weeks. According to new data, China’s
economy will exceed the US in terms of size at
the end of this year. Some commentators were so
excited, they even calculated the exact day when
this will happen: November 2 (on the basis of
World Bank forecasts, at least). Other interesting
factoids are buried in the new dataset as well:
India is now number three in the world, Indonesia
is bigger than Italy, and Sri Lanka beats New
Zealand. Wonderful. Except it’s all a bit
theoretical. These findings are based on new
purchasing power parity (PPP) indices published
at the end of April by the International
Comparison Program, which is hosted by the
World Bank. These are designed to improve
comparisons of living standards across economies.
Since prices vary across economies, and market
exchange rates are doing an imperfect job of
translating true living costs from one to the next,
researchers like to resort to PPPs. Fair enough.
But to compare the relative size of economies, the
measure is rather misleading. For this, USD GDP
is still the best guide. Depending on your
assumptions, China may not exceed the US for
another decade.
– Frederic Neumann & Dinkar Pawan
Something missin': What the latest PMIs mean for Asia
Click here for PDF
Have a quick glance at data in the West, and you
might conclude Asia's trade cycle is about to fire
up. In the US, output has accelerated in recent
months as reflected in the PMIs. In Europe, too,
the recovery is spreading and strengthening
beyond Germany. This should, in principle, lead
to a lift in Asia as well. But that's not the case.
New export orders remain lacklustre and new
orders are still contracting. This hardly signals a
rebound in growth. China, in particular, isn't out
of the woods yet. Japan and India, too, are sliding.
Thankfully, Vietnam is rocking ahead. Its PMI hit
the highest level on record.
– Frederic Neumann & Dinkar Pawan
Best of Asian economics research
45
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
An uptick: Asian electronics lead indicator rose
Click here for PDF
The April 2014 reading for our headline Asian
electronics lead indicator (AELI) was -0.08, up
from -0.20 in the previous month.
– Ronald Man
Chart of the Week: Japan and the world
Click here for PDF
Last week, we looked at capital flows from Japan
to ASEAN over the past year. The conclusion:
bank lending and FDI from the former to the latter
have risen sharply since the Bank of Japan
stepped up its easing program in April 2013;
portfolio flows, by contrast, barely budged. Here,
we look at capital outflows from Japan more
broadly. Again, the sharp pick-up in FDI outflows
is the most notable feature. Total overseas bank
lending also grew, if not quite as rapidly as to
ASEAN specifically. Portfolio flows were highly
volatile over the past year, although Japanese
investors stepped up their overseas purchase over
time. This should accelerate given (a) the wider
yield differential between yen and dollar debt, (b)
falling FX volatility, and (c) rising excess reserves
by Japanese banks. True, further easing by the
BoJ may only come next year, but there’s already
plenty of cash in the system. The money train has
left Tokyo station: it may not run at shinkansen
speed, but it’ll arrive soon enough.
– Frederic Neumann & Dinkar Pawan
Asia Economics Comment: Decoupling, still
Click here for PDF
Last week brought several painful reminders that
stronger growth in the West isn’t providing much
of a lift to Asia. Over the coming days, expect the
data to reinforce that message. Asian exports,
including Japan’s, have so far failed to respond
convincingly to improving demand in the US and
the EU. With consumption and investment
looking a little tired in most markets, the expected
pick-up in growth will be decidedly muted.
Fortunately, stable interest rates and resilient
capital flows will help keep things on an even keel
for the time being. At least that’s something.
– Frederic Neumann
Chart of the Week: Japan and ASEAN
Click here for PDF
Time for a quick update on one of our favourite
themes. A year ago, the Bank of Japan (BoJ)
rolled up its sleeves, readied the ink, and started to
print yen galore: in an unprecedented move, the
central bank promised to double the monetary
base within two years. The question was, and is,
where is all that money headed? Corporate Japan
doesn’t really need it: capital spending hasn’t
picked up yet and, in any case, firms are sitting on
cash reserves equivalent to almost half of GDP.
Banks and investors used to place most of their
cash in government bonds as a result, but these
are now hoovered up by the BoJ. Our thinking
thus was that part of the extra liquidity would spill
abroad. But has this happened? It appears so, but
not necessarily in ways that the market initially
anticipated. Portfolio outflows from Japan, at least
into emerging Asia, haven’t really fired up. But,
as we’ve argued for a while, it is bank lending and
FDI, especially into ASEAN, where the effect is
really felt. And there’s plenty of liquidity still on
its way to keep the region afloat for a while.
– Frederic Neumann & Dinkar Pawan
Australian Budget Observer: Gradual consolidation expected
Click here for PDF
The government has announced that next week's
budget will be 'tough' as it maps out a plan to
return to budget surplus. According to the
government, carbon and mining taxes to be
removed, disability insurance and paid parental
leave scheme to be introduced, but likely offset by
cuts in benefits and tax hike for high income
46
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
earners. We expect the budget to project a return
to surplus over time; we don't expect aggressive
short-term austerity measures.
– Paul Bloxham & Adam Richardson
The RBA Observer: On hold and comfortable, for now
Click here for PDF
The Q1 CPI data showed that inflation remains
close to target and is a bit below the RBA's last set
of published forecasts. We expect the RBA to
leave the cash rate at 2.50% and to restate that it
expects rates to remain 'stable' for some time.
With inflation close to target and growth lifting,
we also expect the central bank to refrain from
'jawboning' the AUD lower, despite the currency
remaining historically high.
– Paul Bloxham
Australian economics comment: Fiscal audit to inform 2014/15 budget
Click here for PDF
The government published the results of its
Commission of Audit on Australia's fiscal
situation, which is designed to provide advice on
budget policy. The 1,200 page report contained 86
key recommendations, some of which could be
implemented in the 2014/15 budget, to be
delivered on 13 May. Without adjustments to
policy commitments, the Commission suggests
that Australia faces perpetual budget deficits. The
government has already flagged some measures
that are being considered for the May budget,
including increasing the pension age and cutting
social benefits. They are likely to announce more
budget plans in coming days.
– Paul Bloxham & Adam Richardson
China Inside Out: Time to ease a little
Click here for PDF
Despite looser interbank liquidity, long-term
interest rates have stayed stubbornly high. With
more disinflationary pressures, real rates risk
moving higher, squeezing private sector
investments and pushing up the debt to GDP ratio.
Monetary policy should be more accommodative
to cushion the growth slowdown.
– Qu Hongbin & Julia Wang
India PMI Chartbook: Activity remains subdued
Click here for PDF
Manufacturing held steady as firmer domestic
demand countered softer export orders. Services
activity continues to remain subdued, although the
PMI index ticked up a bit in April. While price
pressures eased in manufacturing, they picked up
for services.
– Leif Eskesen & Prithviraj Srinivas
Bank of Japan Watch: Pushing back our call: Easing unlikely until FY 2015
Click here for PDF
The BoJ leadership has sounded increasingly
optimistic on the prospects of achieving its 2%
inflation target. Firm inflation readings have
reduced pressure on the central bank; the BoJ is
likely to remain on hold as long as core inflation
stays above 1% and begins reaccelerating by Q1
CY15. We have pushed back our expectation of
additional easing from Q3 CY14 currently. Our
base case is that further stimulus will be
announced at the April 2015 policy meeting.
– Izumi Devalier
Bank of Japan too optimistic on
inflation
Click here for PDF
One the face of it, a victory for Japan’s central
bank. Core inflation in Tokyo jumped 2.7% in
April, the fastest pace since 1992. Not bad for an
economy gripped by deflation for well over a
decade. The Bank of Japan unveiled its most
ambitious easing program yet last year, with a
promise to double the monetary base and slay
deflation for good. Look closely, however, and
47
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
it’s not clear that price pressures have really risen
as much as the headline numbers suggest.
– Frederic Neumann
Bank of Japan Watch: The signal and the noise
Click here for PDF
The Bank of Japan is likely to keep the size and
pace of its asset purchases unchanged at its 30
April one-day meeting. With a hold priced in,
markets will focus on the BoJ’s revised price and
growth projections; the policy board will likely
maintain its forecast that core inflation will reach
2% in FY15. We think the risks to the BoJ’s CPI
forecasts skew to the downside and expect
additional easing to be delivered in Q3 14.
– Izumi Devalier
Why Korea will not be “the next Japan”: It can avoid making the same missteps
Click here for PDF
Korea’s economy has grown 1,800% since 1980 –
more than three times the global rate. But there
are concerns that Korea may suffer similar
problems to Japan. We think Korea will avoid
making the same missteps, but more reforms are
needed.
– Ronald Man
Korea central bank watch: According to plan
Click here for PDF
Korea sustained strong GDP growth in Q1 and its
economy continues to benefit from a gradual
export-led recovery. Calls for the Bank of Korea
to deliver a rate hike later this year are growing
louder, even if headline CPI will stay low. We
expect the central bank to hold its policy rate at
2.50% on 9 May and the next move to be a 25bp
hike in Q3 2014.
– Ronald Man
Malaysia Central Bank Watch: Still in pause mode
Click here for PDF
We look for Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to
continue to pause at 3.00% when it meets on
Thursday, 8 May. Although BNM has not turned
completely hawkish, we think risks remain for a
further 50bp of hikes later this year. Inflation now
exceeds the policy rate, and loan growth
particularly for residential property remains
elevated.
– Su Sian Lim
New Zealand Economics Comment: Opposition proposes changing RBNZ mandate
Click here for PDF
New Zealand's opposition Labour party has
proposed adjusting the RBNZ's inflation targeting
regime, as a part of its agenda in the lead up to the
September election. They propose that the current
account position should be part of the RBNZ's
policy targets agreement and the central bank be
given another tool to adjust household saving
rates via superannuation contributions through the
cycle, partly to weaken the high NZD. In our
view, this is over-engineering and would be
demanding too much from monetary policy.
Instead, addressing the underlying causes of low
saving, a persistent current account deficit and
poor productivity growth would better tackle the
issues of an elevated exchange rate.
– Paul Bloxham & Adam Richardson
Philippines central bank watch: Moderate measure: Policy rates to stay on hold
Click here for PDF
Inflation rose 4.1% y-o-y in April from 3.9% in
March; with the storm season approaching and
agricultural output lower this year, prices will
likely accelerate in the summer months. M3
increased in March to 34.8% y-o-y due to higher
48
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
deposits; credit also accelerated to 18.3% y-o-y
from 18.0% in February. Excess liquidity is a
concern but manageable; the BSP likely keep
policy rates on hold but raise the RRR by 1ppt to
20%.
– Trinh D Nguyen
Vietnam at a glance: A new high: April PMI rises
Click here for PDF
April’s HSBC manufacturing PMI rose to 53.1
from 51.3 in March, with all key components
increasing sharply. Government indicators show
exports, retail sales and lending increasing on the
month, indicating a broad pick-up of activity.
While inflation may gradually accelerate,
especially in H2 2014, it is likely to stay
contained, allowing the SBV to keep rates low.
– Trinh D Nguyen
Asian Economics Desk Reference 12 May 2014
For inquiries please contact Asian Economics Team: [email protected], Phone: +852 2822 4556
abc
HSBC US and Europe policy rate outlook (% pa) — (rate hikes denoted in red, cuts denoted in grey)
1Q 2014 2Q 2014f 3Q 2014f 4Q 2014f 1Q 2015f 2Q 2015f 3Q 2015f 4Q 2015f
United States 0.00-0.25 0.00-0.25 0.00-0.25 0.00-0.25 0.00-0.25 0.00-0.25 0.50 0.75Eurozone 0.25 0.25 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15UK 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00
NB: Forecast in italics. Source: HSBC
HSBC Asia FX policy sustainability dashboard — (negative readings denoted in red)
S.T. ext debt FX reserves S.T. debt C/A 2014f C/A 2015f ___________ Exports % yr ____________ (USD bn) (USD bn) Cover (%) (% of GDP) (% of GDP) 3mma (Latest) 2014f 2015f
Australia n/a 57 n/a -1.9 -1.5 3.7 7.9 6.9New Zealand n/a 12 n/a -2.9 -3.8 19.6 7.8 1.3China 741 3,948 18.8 2.5 2.7 -8.0 10.0 12.0Hong Kong 788 318 n/a 4.1 6.2 0.5 4.2 3.4India 100 284 35.3 -2.2 -2.7 -2.0 8.0 8.7Indonesia 52 106 49.1 -2.4 -2.0 -2.4 -3.8 3.6Korea 151 356 42.3 4.6 4.7 5.2 8.1 13.5Malaysia 35 118 29.4 5.4 7.4 4.1 4.5 8.4Philippines 7 80 8.7 3.1 2.4 11.2 7.8 8.0Singapore n/a 275 n/a 19.3 19.8 1.0 3.8 8.4Sri Lanka 6 8 73.2 -5.2 -5.6 13.9 7.7 11.0Taiwan 118 421 28.0 8.7 6.3 5.5 4.4 4.8Thailand 68 167 41.0 1.0 1.2 -0.7 3.3 7.2Vietnam 10 30 33.0 3.3 0.9 22.1 15.4 13.0
NB: (1) short-term debts are 2014 forecasts and FX reserves are the latest released; forecasts in italics; (2) Re-exports are excluded from Taiwan’s export numbers; (3) USD export values are used; (4) BoP exports: goods only. Source: CEIC, HSBC
PMI Manufacturing — (Red denotes above 50 & stronger; pink denotes above 50 & falling, or unchanged ; light grey denotes below 50 & rising, or unchanged; dark grey denotes below 50 & falling)
_______PMI Manufacturing ______ ___________ Output ____________ __________ New Orders __________ Apr Mar Feb Apr Mar Feb Apr Mar Feb
Australia 44.8 47.9 48.6 42.6 49.2 51.5 41.8 52.3 50.0 New Zealand 58.4 56.5 60.5 59.0 60.5 57.0 China HSBC 48.1 48.0 48.5 47.9 47.2 48.8 47.4 46.5 48.6 China NBS 50.4 50.3 50.2 52.5 52.7 52.6 51.2 50.6 50.5 India 51.3 51.3 52.5 51.7 52.2 54.0 52.5 52.7 54.9 Indonesia 51.1 50.1 50.5 49.8 49.8 50.3 52.7 51.2 50.3 Japan 49.4 53.9 55.5 46.2 54.2 58.4 47.4 54.9 56.2 Korea 50.2 50.4 49.8 49.8 50.4 49.7 50.0 50.4 49.9 Singapore 51.1 50.8 50.9 52.3 51.5 51.9 52.4 50.8 51.2 Taiwan 52.3 52.7 54.7 54.0 54.3 57.2 54.5 54.1 57.8 Vietnam 53.1 51.3 51.0 53.7 52.3 51.4 54.9 53.0 51.8
Source: Markit, HSBC
Asian Economics Desk Reference 12 May 2014
For inquiries please contact Asian Economics Team: [email protected], Phone: +852 2822 4556
abc
HSBC Global real GDP growth forecast (% yr) — (red denotes above consensus, grey denotes below consensus)
4Q 13 1Q 14e 2Q 14f 3Q 14f 4Q 14f 2012 2013 2014f Consensus 2015f Consensus Trend Forecasts
US 2.6 0.1 3.7 2.3 2.6 2.8 1.9 2.3 2.8 2.5 3.1 n/a UK 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 0.2 1.8 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 n/a Eurozone 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 -0.6 -0.4 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.4 n/a Australia 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.6 2.4 2.8 2.8 3.2 2.9 3.0 New Zealand 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.3 2.6 2.7 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 Bangladesh n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 6.0 5.9 6.2 6.0 6.4 6.3 6.0 China 7.7 7.4 7.6 7.3 7.4 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.3 7.7 7.2 8.5 Hong Kong 3.0 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.8 1.5 2.9 3.7 3.4 4.0 3.5 3.9 India 4.7 4.5 5.1 5.0 5.3 4.5 4.6 5.3 5.4 6.3 6.0 8.0 Indonesia 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 6.3 5.8 5.2 5.4 6.0 5.8 7.0 Japan 2.6 2.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.3 0.7 Korea 3.7 3.9 3.3 2.8 3.4 2.3 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.7 3.4 Malaysia 5.1 6.5 6.0 4.9 3.5 5.6 4.7 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 Mongolia n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 12.2 12.0 10.0 n/a 12.0 n/a n/a Philippines 6.5 6.0 6.0 5.7 6.1 6.8 7.2 5.9 6.4 6.1 6.3 4.9 Singapore 5.5 5.1 2.5 3.4 2.9 1.9 4.1 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 Sri Lanka 8.2 7.8 7.4 7.1 6.5 6.4 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.9 Taiwan 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.9 1.5 2.1 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 4.7 Thailand 0.6 3.3 3.3 2.7 2.8 6.5 2.9 3.0 2.5 4.0 4.2 4.5 Vietnam 6.0 5.0 5.5 5.8 6.2 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.8 Asia 5.2 5.1 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.0 4.8 5.2 Asia x C 3.5 3.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 Asia. x J 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.3 7.3 Asia. x. J & C 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 5.1 5.0 5.8
NB: Consensus as of April 2014; India and Bangladesh annual data are for fiscal year; Asia aggregate data are nominal GDP USD weighted; US quarterly data are q-o-q annualised; forecasts in italics, actual in normal font. Regional Consensus forecasts are calculated using Consensus Economics country forecasts re-weighted on Nominal GDP basis in order to make them comparable to HSBC Asia aggregate forecasts. Source: HSBC, CEIC, Consensus Economics
HSBC Asia inflation forecast (headline CPI, avg.% yr) — (red denotes above consensus, grey denotes below consensus)
1Q14 2Q14f 3Q14f 4Q14f 1Q15f 2012 2013 2014f Consensus Target* 2015f Consensus Trend Forecasts
Australia 2.9 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.7 1.8 2.4 2.8 2.8 2 to 3 2.8 2.6 2.5 New Zealand 1.5 2.3 2.2 2.6 2.5 1.1 1.1 2.3 1.9 1 to 3 2.5 2.3 2.0 Bangladesh 7.4 7.6 7.3 6.6 7.3 7.2 7.5 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.2 6.9 6.9 China 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.0 Hong Kong 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.5 4.0 3.6 3.2 India 8.4 7.7 7.4 6.6 8.0 10.2 9.4 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.0 7.1 5.5 Indonesia 7.8 7.4 4.5 5.5 4.7 4.0 6.4 6.3 6.3 3.5 to 5.5 4.9 5.5 5.0 Japan 1.5 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.2 0.0 0.4 2.8 2.6 2.0 1.8 1.7 0.1 Korea 1.1 2.2 2.8 3.3 3.6 2.2 1.3 2.4 1.9 2.5 to 3.5 3.3 2.6 3.4 Malaysia 3.5 3.5 3.2 2.5 2.0 1.7 2.1 3.2 3.3 2.0 to 3.0 3.3 3.6 2.5 Mongolia n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 14.3 10.5 10.0 n/a n/a 11.0 n/a n/a Philippines 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.1 4.0 3.2 2.9 4.2 4.1 3 to 5 4.3 3.8 5.0 Singapore 1.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 3.2 4.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 1.5 to 2.5 3.2 2.7 2.5 Sri Lanka 4.2 4.3 6.6 8.8 9.0 7.5 6.9 6.0 6.2 5 to 7 7.2 6.7 7.5 Taiwan 0.8 1.2 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.9 0.8 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.6 Thailand 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.6 3.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 0.5 to 3.0 2.5 2.8 3.5 Vietnam 4.8 4.5 4.9 5.8 6.5 9.3 6.6 5.1 6.0 less than 10 7.3 6.9 6.4
NB: Australia and New Zealand are quarterly data; India annual data are for fiscal year and target refers to end 2014 target as per new monetary policy framework transition path; *Thailand target for core inflation; Sri Lanka targets money supply; Malaysia has implicit preference; Hong Kong government forecasts underlying CPI for 2014 at 4.5%; and composite CPI at 4.5%; Taiwanese directorate general of budget’s forecasts for 2014 is 1.1%; forecasts in italics; Singapore CPI estimate by MAS; JP: 2014 CPI forecast includes the effects of the April 2014 consumption tax hike. Source: HSBC, CEIC, various central banks.
Asian Economics Desk Reference 12 May 2014
For inquiries please contact Asian Economics Team: [email protected], Phone: +852 2822 4556
abc
HSBC Asia policy rate forecast % pa (red denotes rate hikes or HSBC above implied rate, grey denotes rate cuts or HSBC below implied rate)
Current Last Move/Date Next MPC 1Q 14 2Q 14f 3Q 14f 4Q 14f 1Q 15f 3M FW 6M FW 12M FW
Australia 2.50 -25bp (Aug-2013) 3-Jun 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.75 3.00 2.66 2.69 2.83 New Zealand 3.00 +25bp (Apr-2014) 11-Jun 2.75 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.75 3.50 3.68 4.04 Bangladesh 7.25 -50bp (Feb-2013) n/a 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 n/a n/a n/a China 6.00 -31bp (Jul-2012) n/a 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 n/a n/a n/a Hong Kong 0.50 -100bp (Dec-2008) n/a 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 n/a n/a n/a India Repo 8.00 +25bp (Jan-2014) 3-Jun 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.02 7.93 8.03 Indonesia 7.50 +25bp (Nov-2013) 12-Jun 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 n/a n/a n/a Japan 0.0-0.10 (Oct-2010) 21-May 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 n/a n/a n/a Korea 2.50 -25bp (May-2013) 12-Jun 2.50 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 2.50 2.56 2.66 Malaysia 3.00 +25bp (May-2011) 10-Jul 3.00 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.25 3.18 3.59 Philippines 3.50 -25bp (Oct-2012) 19-Jun 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.00 4.00 n/a n/a n/a Sri Lanka 8.00 -50bp (Jan-2014) 25-May 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.50 n/a n/a n/a Taiwan 1.875 +12.5bp (Jun-2011) 25-Jun 1.875 1.875 1.875 1.875 2.000 2.030 2.060 2.120 Thailand 2.00 -25bp (Mar-2014) 18-Jun 2.00 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.46 2.05 2.03 Vietnam 5.00 -50bp (Mar-2014) n/a 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 6.00 n/a n/a n/a
NB: New Zealand and Australia implied rates are OIS swap rates; the rest implied rates are based on recommendation from our local rates strategy team. Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, HSBC
HSBC Asia reserve requirement outlook (%)
Pre-crisis level (15 Sep 2008) Cumulative change to date Current HSBC forecast
China 17.5/16.5 +250/150 bps 20.0/18.0 RRR likely to be unchanged, but there is room for cuts if needed
India 9.0 -500 bps 4.00 Expect CRR to be on hold
NB: Two RRR rates for China refer to the ratio for large banks and the ratio for small banks, respectively. Source: HSBC & Bloomberg
HSBC Asia public debt forecast — (grey denotes improvement, red denotes deterioration)
Budget balance (Local currency bn) ___ Budget balance (% of GDP) ____ _____ Public debt (% of GDP) ______ 2013e 2014f 2015f 2013e 2014f 2015f 2013e 2014f 2015f
Australia -19 -44 -33 -1.2 -2.8 -2.0 27.9 30.0 32.0 New Zealand -3 -2 0 -2.1 -1.0 0.0 36.7 35.8 33.3 Bangladesh -584 -605 -660 -4.9 -4.6 -4.4 42.8 43.2 43.5 China -1,060 -1,350 -1,400 -1.9 -2.2 -2.0 39.5 38.4 36.8 Hong Kong 74 32 21 3.5 1.4 1.1 33.0 32.0 31.0 India -5,245 -5,134 -5,074 -4.8 -4.5 -4.0 71.9 73.1 72.3 Indonesia -187,088 -183,825 -170,190 -2.1 -1.8 -1.5 26.2 29.1 29.3 Japan -44,429 -34,498 -29,349 -9.6 -7.0 -6.0 236.7 249.7 253.3 Korea 11,800 26,350 42,200 0.9 1.8 2.7 31.7 29.8 27.7 Malaysia -38 -39 -36 -3.9 -3.5 -3.0 54.8 52.2 51.5 Mongolia -297 -1,616 -1,589 -1.7 -7.5 -6.0 n/a n/a n/a Philippines -164 -216 -280 -1.4 -1.7 -2.0 49.2 45.0 42.7 Singapore 4 3 4 1.1 0.6 0.9 104.4 100.9 95.7 Sri Lanka -528 -540 -561 -6.0 -5.5 -5.0 74.7 74.1 71.6 Taiwan -221 -203 -185 -1.5 -1.3 -1.2 41.3 40.8 39.9 Thailand -239 -433 -561 -2.0 -3.4 -4.1 44.0 46.9 49.4 Vietnam -143,357 -159,566 -153,362 -4.0 -4.0 -3.4 46.6 45.5 45.5
NB: India figures are in fiscal year, forecasts in italics, Japan and Malaysia are gross central government debt; HK budget balance data is the government’s revised estimate for 2013-14 fiscal year, released in February 2014; HK public debt figures are sourced from IMF, WEO October 2013. Source: HSBC, CEIC, IMF
Asian Economics Desk Reference 12 May 2014
For inquiries please contact Asian Economics Team: [email protected], Phone: +852 2822 4556
abc
HSBC Asia bond yields forecast (% pa)
_______________ 5yr ________________ ______________ 10yr _______________ Rates strategy comment current +3m +6m +9m current +3m +6m +9m 9m view
US 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.4 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.5 n/a UK 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.7 2.7 3.0 2.8 2.5 n/a Euro 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 n/a Australia 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.2 Neutral New Zealand 4.0 4.8 4.9 5.1 4.3 5.0 5.2 5.4 Flattening China 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 Steepening Hong Kong 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.4 Neutral India 8.8 9.0 8.5 8.5 8.8 9.0 8.6 8.6 Steepening Indonesia 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.3 Flattening Japan 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 Flattening Korea 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.2 Flattening Malaysia 3.6 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 Steepening Philippines 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.5 Flattening Singapore 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.3 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.5 Flattening Taiwan 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 Neutral Thailand 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 Flattening
Note: Rates strategy recommendations from HSBC: Asia-Pac Rates: A decline in term and political premium as of 24 April 2014; forecasts in italics, 3m compares to 2Q 2014, 6M to 3Q 2014 and 9 months to 4Q 2014. For US, UK, Euro forecasts are for 3M, 6M and 12M. Source: HSBC, CEIC & Bloomberg
HSBC Asia FX forecast (period end, vs. USD) (red denotes appreciation or HSBC above forward rate, grey denotes depreciation or HSBC below forward rate)
4Q 13 1Q 14 2Q 14f 3Q 14f 4Q 14f 1Q 15f % chg 2014 3M FW 6M FW 12M FW
Australia 0.93 0.93 0.90 0.87 0.86 0.86 -8.51 0.93 0.93 0.92 New Zealand 0.83 0.87 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.88 1.16 0.86 0.85 0.84 China 6.05 6.17 6.26 6.20 6.14 6.12 -0.16 6.17 6.18 6.20 Hong Kong 7.75 7.76 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 0.65 7.75 7.75 7.75 India 61.90 60.10 61.00 62.00 62.00 63.00 3.54 60.36 61.44 63.59 Indonesia 12,189 11,404 11,750 12,000 12,250 12,500 6.14 11,620 11,815 12,221 Japan 105.37 102.98 103.00 103.00 101.00 99.00 -0.98 102.00 102.00 101.00 Korea 1,055 1,069 1,060 1,050 1,040 1,030 1.76 1,024 1,029 1,036 Malaysia 3.25 3.27 3.30 3.32 3.33 3.35 3.42 3.23 3.25 3.28 Philippines 44.41 45.00 44.80 45.00 45.20 45.40 3.20 43.80 43.80 44.00 Singapore 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.28 1.28 2.40 1.25 1.25 1.25 Sri Lanka 130.89 131.98 130.00 130.00 130.00 130.00 -0.30 n/a n/a n/a Taiwan 29.95 29.78 30.20 30.00 29.80 29.70 -1.00 30.10 30.00 29.80 Thailand 32.68 31.71 32.80 33.40 34.00 34.30 4.62 32.60 32.70 33.10 Vietnam 21,095 21,080 21,100 21,100 21,100 21,100 -0.01 21,236 21,463 22,755 Euro 1.37 1.39 1.33 1.30 1.28 1.25 -7.91 1.39 1.39 1.39 Sterling 1.66 1.66 1.61 1.55 1.50 1.47 -11.76 1.69 1.69 1.69
NB: forecasts in italics; % change from May 8, 2014 to end 4Q 2014; FW rates are from Bloomberg FXFC function using forward rate; for forward rate comparison, 3M compares to 2Q 2014, 6M to 3Q 2014, and 12M to 1Q 2015. Source: HSBC, Bloomberg
Economic Calendar – EM Asia May 2014
For inquiries please contact Asian Economics Team: [email protected], Phone: +852 2822 4556
abc
Main EM Asia economic indicators calendar
Date Location Local time Subject Unit Period of data Previous
1-May Korea 07:00 CPI % y-o-y Apr 1.3 1-May Korea 08:00 Exports % y-o-y Apr 5.1 1-May Korea 08:00 Imports % y-o-y Apr 3.6 1-May China 09:00 PMI-Manufacturing Index Apr 50.3 1-May Thailand 12:00 CPI % y-o-y Apr 2.1 1-May Thailand 12:00 CPI Core % y-o-y Apr 1.3 2-May Korea 08:00 PMI-Manufacturing Index Apr 50.4 2-May Indonesia 10:00 Imports % y-o-y Mar -9.9 2-May Taiwan 10:00 PMI-Manufacturing Index Apr 52.7 2-May Vietnam 10:00 PMI-Manufacturing Index Apr 51.3 2-May Indonesia 10:00 Exports % y-o-y Mar -2.5 2-May Indonesia 10:00 CPI % y-o-y Apr 7.3 2-May Indonesia 11:00 PMI-Manufacturing Index Apr 50.1 2-May India 13:00 PMI-Manufacturing Index Apr 51.3 2-May Hong Kong 16:30 Retail Sales Value % y-o-y Mar -2.2 3-May China 09:00 PMI: Non-manufacturing Index Apr 54.5 5-May China 09:45 HSBC PMI-Manufacturing final Index Apr 48.3 5-May Indonesia 12:02 GDP % y-o-y 1Q-2014 5.7 5-May Indonesia 12:02 GDP % q-o-q 1Q-2014 -1.4 5-May Singapore 21:30 PMI-Composite Index Apr 50.8 6-May Taiwan 08:30 CPI % y-o-y Apr 1.6 6-May Philippines 09:55 CPI % y-o-y Apr 3.9 6-May India 13:00 PMI-Services Index Apr 47.5 6-May India 13:00 PMI-Composite Index Apr 48.9 7-May China 09:45 HSBC PMI-Services Index Apr 51.9 7-May China 09:45 HSBC PMI-Composite Index Apr 49.3 7-May Hong Kong 10:30 PMI-Composite Index Apr 49.9 7-May Taiwan 16:00 Exports % y-o-y Apr 2.0 7-May Taiwan 16:00 Imports % y-o-y Apr 7.5 8-May Philippines 16:00 Overnight Borrowing Rate % 8-May 3.50 8-May Malaysia 18:00 Overnight Policy Rate % 8-May 3.00 8-May Indonesia n/a Reference Rate % 8-May 7.50 8-May China n/a Exports % y-o-y Apr -6.6 8-May China n/a Imports % y-o-y Apr -11.3 9-May Korea 09:00 7-Day Repo Rate % 9-May 2.50 9-May China 09:30 PPI % y-o-y Apr -2.3 9-May China 09:30 CPI % y-o-y Apr 2.4
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar – EM Asia May 2014
For inquiries please contact Asian Economics Team: [email protected], Phone: +852 2822 4556
abc
Main EM Asia economic indicators calendar
Date Location Local time Subject Unit Period of data Previous
10-May China n/a Aggregate Financing RMB RMB bn Apr 2070.9 10-May China n/a M2 % y-o-y Apr 12.1 12-May India 20:00 Industrial Production % y-o-y Mar -1.9 12-May Sri Lanka n/a CBSL Standing Deposit Rate % 12-May 6.50 12-May Sri Lanka n/a CBSL Standing Lending Rate % 12-May 8.00 13-May China 13:30 Fixed Assets Ex Rural - ytd % y-o-y Apr 17.6 13-May China 13:30 Retail Sales % y-o-y Apr 12.2 13-May China 13:30 Industrial Production % y-o-y Apr 8.8 14-May Korea 07:00 Unemployment rate sa % Apr 3.5 14-May India 14:30 WPI % y-o-y Apr 5.7 15-May Singapore 13:00 Retail Sales % y-o-y Mar -9.5 15-May Philippines n/a Overseas Workers Remittances % y-o-y Mar 5.6 16-May Singapore 08:30 Non-oil Domestic Exports % y-o-y Apr -6.6 16-May Hong Kong 16:30 GDP-sa % q-o-q 1Q-2014 1.1 16-May Hong Kong 16:30 GDP % y-o-y 1Q-2014 3.0 16-May Malaysia 18:00 GDP % y-o-y 1Q-2014 5.1 17-May Singapore 05/23 GDP, saar final % q-o-q 1Q-2014 0.1 17-May Singapore 05/23 GDP final % y-o-y 1Q-2014 5.1 18-May China 09:30 Property Prices % Apr - 19-May Thailand 10:30 GDP % y-o-y 1Q-2014 0.6 20-May Taiwan 16:00 Export Orders % y-o-y Apr 5.9 21-May Malaysia 17:00 CPI % y-o-y Apr 3.5 22-May China 09:45 HSBC PMI-Manufacturing flash Index May 48.1 22-May Hong Kong 16:30 CPI % y-o-y Apr 3.9 23-May Taiwan 16:00 Industrial Production % y-o-y Apr 3.0 23-May Taiwan 17:00 GDP final % y-o-y 1Q-2014 3.0 23-May Singapore n/a CPI % y-o-y Apr 1.2 24-May Vietnam n/a CPI % y-o-y May 4.5 29-May Philippines 10:00 GDP % y-o-y 1Q-2014 6.5 29-May Philippines 10:00 GDP-sa % q-o-q 1Q-2014 1.5 30-May Korea 07:00 Industrial Production sa % m-o-m Apr 0.9 30-May Korea 07:00 Industrial Production % y-o-y Apr 2.7 30-May Sri Lanka 17:30 CPI % y-o-y May 4.9 30-May India 20:00 GDP % y-o-y 1Q-2014 4.7
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar – DM May 2014
For inquiries please contact Asian Economics Team: [email protected], Phone: +852 2822 4556
abc
Main DM economic indicators calendar
Date Location Local time Subject Unit Period of data Previous
1-May US 02:00 Fed QE3 Pace USD bn Apr 55.0 1-May US 02:00 Fed Pace of Treasury Purchases USD bn Apr 30.0 1-May US 02:00 Fed Pace of MBS Purchases USD bn Apr 25.0 1-May US 02:00 FOMC Rate Decision % 30-Apr 0.25 1-May US 20:30 Initial Jobless Claims 000s Wk Apr 26 330.0 1-May US 20:30 Personal Income % m-o-m Mar 0.4 1-May US 20:30 Personal Spending % m-o-m Mar 0.5 1-May US 22:00 ISM Manufacturing Index Apr 53.7 2-May EMU 16:00 Manufacturing PMI final Index Apr 53.3 2-May EMU 17:00 Unemployment Rate % Mar 11.8 2-May US 20:30 Nonfarm Payrolls 000s Apr 203.0 2-May US 20:30 Unemployment Rate % Apr 6.7 2-May US 22:00 Factory Orders % m-o-m Mar 1.5 5-May Australia 09:30 Building Approvals % m-o-m Mar -5.4 5-May EMU 17:00 PPI % m-o-m Mar -0.2 5-May EMU 17:00 PPI % y-o-y Mar -1.7 5-May EMU 17:00 EC Publishes Spring Economic Forecast - - - 6-May Australia 12:30 Cash Rate Target % 6-May 2.50 6-May EMU 16:00 Services PMI final Index Apr 53.1 6-May EMU 16:00 Composite PMI final Index Apr 54.0 6-May EMU 17:00 Retail Sales % m-o-m Mar 0.1 6-May EMU 17:00 Retail Sales % y-o-y Mar 1.0 7-May Germany 14:00 Factory Orders % m-o-m Mar 0.9 8-May Australia 09:30 Employment Change 000s Apr 21.9 8-May Australia 09:30 Unemployment Rate % Apr 5.8 8-May Germany 14:00 Industrial Production sa % m-o-m Mar 0.4 8-May EMU 19:45 ECB Rate Decision % 8-May 0.25 8-May EMU 19:45 Marginal Lending Facility % 8-May 0.75 8-May EMU 19:45 ECB Deposit Facility Rate % 8-May 0.00 8-May US 20:30 Initial Jobless Claims 000s Wk May 3 344.0 9-May Australia 09:30 RBA releases Monetary Policy Statement - May - 13-May Germany 17:00 ZEW Survey Current Situation Index May 59.5 13-May Germany 17:00 ZEW Survey Expectations Index May 43.2 13-May US 20:30 Retail Sales % m-o-m Apr 1.2 15-May Japan 07:50 GDP-sa prelim % q-o-q 1Q-2014 0.2 15-May Japan 07:50 GDP saar prelim % q-o-q 1Q-2014 0.7 15-May Germany 14:00 GDP-sa prelim % q-o-q 1Q-2014 0.4 15-May Germany 14:00 GDP prelim % y-o-y 1Q-2014 1.4 15-May EMU 16:00 ECB Monthly Report - May - 15-May EMU 17:00 CPI % m-o-m Apr 0.9 15-May EMU 17:00 CPI final % y-o-y Apr - 15-May EMU 17:00 GDP-sa advance % q-o-q 1Q-2014 0.2 15-May EMU 17:00 GDP, sa advance % y-o-y 1Q-2014 0.5 15-May US 20:30 Empire Manufacturing Index May 1.29 15-May US 20:30 CPI % m-o-m Apr 0.2 15-May US 20:30 CPI Ex Food and Energy % m-o-m Apr 0.2
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar – DM May 2014
For inquiries please contact Asian Economics Team: [email protected], Phone: +852 2822 4556
abc
Main DM economic indicators calendar
Date Location Local time Subject Unit Period of data Previous
15-May US 20:30 CPI % y-o-y Apr 1.5 15-May US 20:30 CPI Ex Food and Energy % y-o-y Apr 1.7 15-May US 20:30 Initial Jobless Claims 000s Wk May 10 - 15-May US 21:15 Industrial Production % m-o-m Apr 0.7 15-May US 22:00 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index May 16.6 15-May US n/a Annual Manufacturing Revisions - - - 16-May Japan 12:30 Industrial Production final % m-o-m Mar 0.3 16-May US 20:30 Housing Starts Revisions - - - 16-May US 20:30 Housing Starts 000s Apr 946.0 16-May US 21:55 Univ. of Michigan Confidence prelim Index May 84.1 19-May Japan 07:50 Machine Orders % m-o-m Mar -8.8 19-May Japan 07:50 Machine Orders % y-o-y Mar 10.8 21-May Japan 07:50 Trade Balance JPY bn Apr -1446.0 21-May Japan 07:50 Exports % y-o-y Apr 1.8 21-May Japan 07:50 Imports % y-o-y Apr 18.1 21-May EMU 22:00 Consumer Confidence advance Index May -8.6 21-May Japan n/a 2014 Monetary Base Target JPY trn 21-May 270.0 22-May US 02:00 Fed Releases FOMC Meeting Minutes - Apr 29-30 - 22-May EMU 16:00 Manufacturing PMI prelim Index May 53.4 22-May EMU 16:00 Services PMI prelim Index May 53.1 22-May EMU 16:00 Composite PMI prelim Index May 54.0 22-May US 20:30 Initial Jobless Claims 000s Wk May 17 - 22-May US 22:00 Existing Home Sales M Apr 4.59 23-May Germany 14:00 GDP-sa final % q-o-q 1Q-2014 - 23-May Germany 14:00 GDP final % y-o-y 1Q-2014 - 23-May Germany 16:00 IFO Business Climate Index May 111.2 23-May US 22:00 New Home Sales Revisions - - - 23-May US 22:00 New Home Sales 000s Apr 384.0 25-May EMU n/a EC OECD Economic Outlook - - - 27-May US 20:30 Durable Goods Orders % m-o-m Apr 2.9 27-May US 20:30 Durables ex transportation % m-o-m Apr 2.4 27-May US 20:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air % m-o-m Apr 3.5 27-May US 20:30 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air % Apr 1.5 27-May US 22:00 Consumer Confidence Index May 82.3 27-May US 22:00 Richmond Fed Manufac. Index Index May 7.0 28-May EMU 17:00 Consumer Confidence final Index May - 29-May US 20:30 GDP Annualized % q-o-q 1Q-2014 0.1 29-May US 20:30 Initial Jobless Claims 000s Wk May 24 - 29-May US 22:00 Pending Home Sales % m-o-m Apr 3.4 30-May Japan 07:30 National CPI % y-o-y Apr 1.6 30-May Japan 07:30 Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food % y-o-y May 2.7 30-May Japan 07:50 Industrial Production prelim % m-o-m Apr - 30-May US 20:30 Personal Income % m-o-m Apr 0.5 30-May US 20:30 Personal Spending % m-o-m Apr 0.9 30-May US 21:45 Chicago PMI Index May 63.0 30-May US 21:55 Univ. of Michigan Confidence final Index May -
Source: Bloomberg
50
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Frederic Neumann, Hongbin Qu, Ronald Man, Paul Bloxham, Leif Eskesen, Trinh Nguyen, John Zhu, Su Sian Lim, Julia Wang, Izumi Devalier, Joseph Incalcaterra and Adam Richardson
Important Disclosures This document has been prepared and is being distributed by the Research Department of HSBC and is intended solely for the clients of HSBC and is not for publication to other persons, whether through the press or by other means.
This document is for information purposes only and it should not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other investment products mentioned in it and/or to participate in any trading strategy. Advice in this document is general and should not be construed as personal advice, given it has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. If necessary, seek professional investment and tax advice.
Certain investment products mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries, and they may not be suitable for all types of investors. Investors should consult with their HSBC representative regarding the suitability of the investment products mentioned in this document and take into account their specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to purchase investment products.
The value of and the income produced by the investment products mentioned in this document may fluctuate, so that an investor may get back less than originally invested. Certain high-volatility investments can be subject to sudden and large falls in value that could equal or exceed the amount invested. Value and income from investment products may be adversely affected by exchange rates, interest rates, or other factors. Past performance of a particular investment product is not indicative of future results.
HSBC and its affiliates will from time to time sell to and buy from customers the securities/instruments (including derivatives) of companies covered in HSBC Research on a principal or agency basis.
Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking revenues.
For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research.
Additional disclosures 1 This report is dated as at 15 May 2014. 2 All market data included in this report are dated as at close 13 May 2014, unless otherwise indicated in the report. 3 HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its
Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.
51
Macro Asian Economics 15 May 2014
abc
Disclaimer * Legal entities as at 8 August 2012 ‘UAE’ HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai; ‘HK’ The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Hong Kong; ‘TW’ HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited; 'CA' HSBC Bank Canada, Toronto; HSBC Bank, Paris Branch; HSBC France; ‘DE’ HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Düsseldorf; 000 HSBC Bank (RR), Moscow; ‘IN’ HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited, Mumbai; ‘JP’ HSBC Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo; ‘EG’ HSBC Securities Egypt SAE, Cairo; ‘CN’ HSBC Investment Bank Asia Limited, Beijing Representative Office; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Branch; HSBC Securities (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, Johannesburg; HSBC Bank plc, London, Madrid, Milan, Stockholm, Tel Aviv; ‘US’ HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, New York; HSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler AS, Istanbul; HSBC México, SA, Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero HSBC; HSBC Bank Brasil SA – Banco Múltiplo; HSBC Bank Australia Limited; HSBC Bank Argentina SA; HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, New Zealand Branch incorporated in Hong Kong SAR
Issuer of report The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Level 19, 1 Queen's Road Central Hong Kong SAR Telephone: +852 2843 9111 Telex: 75100 CAPEL HX Fax: +852 2801 4138 Website: www.research.hsbc.com
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (“HSBC”) has issued this research material. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. This material is distributed in the United Kingdom by HSBC Bank plc. In Australia, this publication has been distributed by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (ABN 65 117 925 970, AFSL 301737) for the general information of its “wholesale” customers (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001). Where distributed to retail customers, this research is distributed by HSBC Bank Australia Limited (AFSL No. 232595). These respective entities make no representations that the products or services mentioned in this document are available to persons in Australia or are necessarily suitable for any particular person or appropriate in accordance with local law. No consideration has been given to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. This publication is distributed in New Zealand by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, New Zealand Branch incorporated in Hong Kong SAR. This material is distributed in Japan by HSBC Securities (Japan) Limited. HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. accepts responsibility for the content of this research report prepared by its non-US foreign affiliate. All US persons receiving and/or accessing this report and intending to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so with HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. in the United States and not with its non-US foreign affiliate, the issuer of this report. In Korea, this publication is distributed by either The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch ("HBAP SLS") or The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Branch ("HBAP SEL") for the general information of professional investors specified in Article 9 of the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act (“FSCMA”). This publication is not a prospectus as defined in the FSCMA. It may not be further distributed in whole or in part for any purpose. Both HBAP SLS and HBAP SEL are regulated by the Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service of Korea. In Singapore, this publication is distributed by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch for the general information of institutional investors or other persons specified in Sections 274 and 304 of the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289) (“SFA”) and accredited investors and other persons in accordance with the conditions specified in Sections 275 and 305 of the SFA. This publication is not a prospectus as defined in the SFA. It may not be further distributed in whole or in part for any purpose. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Singapore Branch is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Recipients in Singapore should contact a "Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch" representative in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with this report. In the UK this material may only be distributed to institutional and professional customers and is not intended for private customers. It is not to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person. HSBC México, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero HSBC is authorized and regulated by Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público and Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV). HSBC Bank (Panama) S.A. is regulated by Superintendencia de Bancos de Panama. Banco HSBC Honduras S.A. is regulated by Comisión Nacional de Bancos y Seguros (CNBS). Banco HSBC Salvadoreño, S.A. is regulated by Superintendencia del Sistema Financiero (SSF). HSBC Colombia S.A. is regulated by Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia. Banco HSBC Costa Rica S.A. is supervised by Superintendencia General de Entidades Financieras (SUGEF). Banistmo Nicaragua, S.A. is authorized and regulated by Superintendencia de Bancos y de Otras Instituciones Financieras (SIBOIF). Any recommendations contained in it are intended for the professional investors to whom it is distributed. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. HSBC has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; HSBC makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of HSBC only and are subject to change without notice. The decision and responsibility on whether or not to invest must be taken by the reader. HSBC and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any securities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such securities (or investment). HSBC and its affiliates may act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in the securities of any companies discussed in this document (or in related investments), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform banking or underwriting services for or relating to those companies. This material may not be further distributed in whole or in part for any purpose. No consideration has been given to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. (070905) In Canada, this document has been distributed by HSBC Bank Canada and/or its affiliates. Where this document contains market updates/overviews, or similar materials (collectively deemed “Commentary” in Canada although other affiliate jurisdictions may term “Commentary” as either “macro-research” or “research”), the Commentary is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to sell or subscribe for, any financial product or instrument (including, without limitation, any currencies, securities, commodities or other financial instruments). © Copyright 2014, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited. MICA (P) 066/04/2014, MICA (P) 171/04/2014 and MICA (P) 077/01/2014
abc
Global
Stephen King Global Head of Economics +44 20 7991 6700 [email protected]
Karen Ward Senior Global Economist +44 20 7991 3692 [email protected]
James Pomeroy +44 20 7991 6714 [email protected]
Europe & United Kingdom
Janet Henry Chief European Economist +44 20 7991 6711 [email protected]
Simon Wells Chief UK Economist +44 20 7991 6718 [email protected]
Elizabeth Martins Economist +44 20 7991 2170 [email protected]
Germany Stefan Schilbe +49 211910 3137 [email protected]
Rainer Sartoris +49 211910 2470 [email protected]
France Mathilde Lemoine +33 1 4070 3266 [email protected]
Francois Letondu +33 1 4070 3933 [email protected]
North America
Kevin Logan Chief US Economist +1 212 525 3195 [email protected]
Ryan Wang +1 212 525 3181 [email protected]
David G Watt +1 416 868 8130 [email protected]
Asia Pacific
Qu Hongbin Managing Director, Co-head Asian Economics Research and Chief Economist Greater China +852 2822 2025 [email protected]
Frederic Neumann Managing Director, Co-head Asian Economics Research +852 2822 4556 [email protected]
Leif Eskesen Chief Economist, India and ASEAN +65 6658 8962 [email protected]
Paul Bloxham Chief Economist, Australia and New Zealand +612 9255 2635 [email protected]
Izumi Devalier +852 2822 1647 [email protected]
Su Sian Lim +65 6658 8963 [email protected]
Sophia Ma +86 10 5999 8232 [email protected]
Ronald Man +852 2996 6743 [email protected]
Trinh Nguyen +852 2996 6975 [email protected]
Adam Richardson +612 9006 5848 [email protected]
John Zhu +852 2996 6621 [email protected]
Joseph Incalcaterra +852 2822 4687 [email protected]
Julia Wang +852 2996 6568 [email protected]
Global Emerging Markets
Bertrand Delgado EM Strategist +1 212 525 0745 [email protected]
Emerging Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa
Murat Ulgen Chief Economist, Central & Eastern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa +44 20 7991 6782 [email protected]
Alexander Morozov Chief Economist, Russia and CIS +7 495 783 8855 [email protected]
Artem Biryukov Economist, Russia and CIS +7 495 721 1515 [email protected]
Agata Urbanska-Giner Economist, CEE +44 20 7992 2774 [email protected]
Melis Metiner Economist, Turkey +90 212 376 4618 [email protected]
David Faulkner Economist, South Africa +27 11 676 4569 [email protected]
Middle East and North Africa
Simon Williams Chief Economist +971 4 423 6925 [email protected]
Latin America
Andre Loes Chief Economist, Latin America +55 11 3371 8184 [email protected]
Argentina Javier Finkman Chief Economist, South America ex-Brazil +54 11 4344 8144 [email protected]
Ramiro D Blazquez Senior Economist +54 11 4348 2616 [email protected]
Jorge Morgenstern Senior Economist +54 11 4130 9229 [email protected]
Brazil Constantin Jancso Senior Economist +55 11 3371 8183 [email protected]
Priscila Godoy Economist +55 11 3847 5190 [email protected]
Mexico Sergio Martin Chief Economist +52 55 5721 2164 [email protected]
Central America Lorena Dominguez Economist +52 55 5721 2172 [email protected]
Global Economics Research Team