20140417 5-3-2 development path Savinjska - CEP …...The development path of the regions is relying on the results in WP 3 and WP 4, where energy demand and energy supply as well

3sCE417P3 Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts

Development Path of the Savinjska Region

September 2014

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co‐financed by the ERDF

The sole responsibility for the content of this report lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Communities. The European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

3sCE417P3Introduction of Regional Energy Concepts 2

Content

Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 4 1 Scenario based development path ........................................................................................... 5 1.1 Scenario 1: Trend prolongation ......................................................................................... 7 1.2 Scenario 2: Energy saving ................................................................................................. 8 1.3 Scenario 3: Activation of regional RES ................................................................................ 9 1.4 Scenario 4: RES and EE ................................................................................................... 10

2 The tool: results and visualization of development scenarios .................................................... 12 2.1 Basic data for scenario development, backward and forward projection ............................. 14 2.2 Scenario I – trend prolongation ....................................................................................... 15 2.3 Scenario II: Energy saving and energy efficiency................................................................ 16 2.4 Scenario III: RES activation ............................................................................................. 18

3 Interpretation of the scenarios for the development path ........................................................ 21 4 References .......................................................................................................................... 23


Pictures Figure 1: The trend scenario of the concept region Savinjska ............................................................... 8 Figure 2: The energy saving scenario of the concept region Savinjska .................................................. 9 Figure 3: The RES activation scenario of the concept region Savinjska................................................ 10 Figure 4: Scenario of energy efficiency and RES use for Savinjska region............................................ 11 Figure 5: Current energy balance of Savinjska region ......................................................................... 13 Figure 6: Basic data for energy development scenarios of Savinjska region ....................................... 15 Figure 7: Energy consumption and savings table of Savinjska region ................................................. 17 Tables Table 1: Slovenian RES Targets (Source: National Renewable Energy Action Plan 2010‐2020 (NREAP) Slovenia ................................................................................................................................................... 5


Introduction

The development path of the regions is relying on the results in WP 3 and WP 4, where

energy demand and energy supply as well as the resource potential are analysed.

Given structures in demand and supply are the bases from where the development path is

starting from.

The first step of the development path is identifying energy efficiency and saving potentials

and creating strategies to put these potentials into reality. Efficiency and saving strategies

can be carried out as a general reduction target of (primary‐) energy demand or can be

targeted towards selected demand sectors or the use of selected energy carriers.

The second step is identifying renewable potentials and to rank these potentials by amounts

and by availability or mobilisation potential. The targets can be: increasing the supply from

renewable sources in general and/or the substitution of fossil sources by renewable ones.

In general both steps are tracked more or less simultaneously.


1 Scenario based development path

The development path is strongly bound to the energy related aspects in the Europe 2020

targets.

These targets are: To reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% compared to 1990

levels or by 30% if the conditions are right, increase the share of renewable energy in final

energy consumption to 20%, and achieve a 20% increase in energy efficiency. The national

targets on increasing the share of renewable energy in final energy consumption is differing

among the member states due to their potentials of renewable energy sources.

The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are, essentially, a result of energy efficiency, energy saving and substitution of fossil energy sources by renewable ones. The development path, thus, results in the most effective combination of measures which are leading towards these desired effects.

National targets

The national targets in % share are shown in the table below:

Table 1: Slovenian RES Targets (Source: National Renewable Energy Action Plan 2010-2020 (NREAP) Slovenia

RES 2005 2010 2017 2018 2019 2020

Heating and cooling

20.0 22.3 28.7 29.4 30.1 30.8

Electricity 28.5 32.4 36.1 38.1 38.6 39.3

Transport 0.3 2.6 6.6 7.7 9.0 10.5

Share of RES 16.2 17.7 22.4 23.6 24.3 25.3

According to the (new) Energy Act EZ‐1 and related to the local energy concepts as of

December 2015 Slovenian municipalities need to give evidence to the government that they

follow the national RES share targets and comply with the following documents:

• National Energy Program (NEP),

• Operational Program for Reduction of CO2 emissions until 2012,


• RES Action Plan 2010‐2020 (AN OVE),

• National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (AN URE) 2008–2016,

This means that also municipalities need to follow the national RES targets. According to

experts' estimations Slovenia is more or less following and is only slightly behind the interim

targets on RES share.

As for the energy efficiency seems to be a harder task although currently in line with the

interim targets. Slovenia is still above the EU average level of the energy intensity (primary

112% in 2010) although is being reduced around 1% per year with a target of 1.6%. A bit better

is the situation in industry where the intensity is below the EU average at 95% with 3.3%

yearly reduction for the 2000‐2010 period. Energy consumption per capita in Slovenia has

been slightly above the EU average since 2005 (3.5 toe in 2010). It grew by 1.7 percent/year

between 1990 and 2008 but fell sharply in 2009 (by nearly 10 percent) as a result of the global

economic downturn. It rose by 1.9 percent in 2010, reaching 7.1 Mtoe, but remained below its

2004 level.

The main targets of national energy efficiency action plan (NEEAP) are:

• 4.3 TWh of end‐use energy savings by 2016

• 1.6 TWh of end‐use energy savings in industry by 2016

• 18% of CHP in final energy consumption by 2016

The main 4.3 TWh is target remains in the second NEEAP adopted in 2011. There are quite

some measures presented that could make it possible to achieve up to 6.9 TWh of energy

savings by 2016. 25% of which would be achieved in transport, 24% in industry, 23% in the

residential sector, 6% in the public sector, 4% in services and 18% through cross‐sectoral

measures. By 2020, these measures could save up to 10.3 TWh. The NEEAP involves financial

incentives, mainly for the households and services sectors, for the thermal retrofitting of

existing buildings and the construction of energy‐efficient buildings, high‐efficiency heating

systems and rational electricity use. Moreover, it establishes minimum energy efficiency

requirements for electrical appliances. Therefore some experts remain sceptical about the

possibilities on reaching the set targets.

If we compare the number of measures taken in order to reach the above targets however, we

can see that Slovenia ranks among the countries with fewer measures and of less diversity.

The scenario shows that without any measures the expected final energy demand is slightly

growing and further departing from the 20‐20‐20 targets.


Regional targets

The starting point for the Savinjska region are therefore the obligations that are set in the

nREAP and the main declared commitment expressed in Declaration for the sustainable

development signed by municipalities and many institutions and companies.

CEP‐REC Scenarios are a prognosis‐tool for evaluating the effects of chosen activities and their possible impacts – such as a development path.

The current regional energy balances are the baseline for the development path. Therefore

the regional energy balance sheets have been extended by, basically three, types of

scenarios. The development path tool is containing 4 scenarios:

1.1 Scenario 1: Trend prolongation

This scenario is referring to the development of the past trend since 2005, without

activating any potential of energy efficiency or regional RES. As a benchmark, the national

Europe 2020 targets are introduced on regional level. The result of the scenario is

visualized in a chart in which the result of the scenario is compared with the requirements

of the national Europe 2020 targets – specified for the concept region.

The following chart is showing the forward projection of the past trend between 2005 and

2011 (year of balance). The first scenario shows that without any measures the expected final

energy demand is slightly growing and further departing from the 20‐20‐20 targets. The trend

prolongation is showing that the supply target of RES and the target of energy efficiency

would not be reached if nothing changes.


Figure 1: The trend scenario of the concept region Savinjska

1.2 Scenario 2: Energy saving

This scenario is referring to chosen measures regarding energy efficiency and energy saving.

As in scenario 1, the result of the scenario is visualized in a chart in which the result of the

scenario is compared with the requirements of the national Europe 2020 targets –specified

for the concept region.


Figure 2: The energy saving scenario of the concept region Savinjska

1.3 Scenario 3: Activation of regional RES

In this scenario the effects of the activation of regional resources are observed. The result

is visualized in the same way as in the precedent scenarios.

The following figure shows the development of the region’s energy balance if regional RES are

fully activated. In case of the pilot region Savinjska the most prosperous are the biomass

(mostly wood) and solar energy, an important resource is also geothermal energy. It can be

seen that the renewable potential (blue line) as estimated is al most enough to cover the RES

2020 targets. The most important here are biomass in particularly wood and wood processing

by‐products, solar energy and in long run also geothermal energy in particular for heat

production. The use of solar radiation for energy purposes is still vastly unused although it

received the biggest growth in the recent years and it is now came to almost a complete stop

due to the changed support system. In order to reach the RES 2020 target solar energy can’t

be avoided. In order to achieve those targets also general energy demand should decrease by

applying energy efficiency measures.

RES (wood) use in heating households has got a long tradition in the region. Hence the share


of renewables for heat supply in household is rather high at 40%, high and above the national

average of almost 30%. The general share of RES, at the moment, is 37% and thus already

higher than the national target of 36% in the Europe 2020 documents.

Figure 3: The RES activation scenario of the concept region Savinjska

1.4 Scenario 4: RES and EE

Is a combination of scenario 2 and 3 and shows the effects of combined measures.

Much more probable scenario is however the one that includes further RES investment and

energy efficiency measures applied. According to this scenario the goals 20‐20‐20 would be

reached, with a delay however. The chart below is showing the development of the energy

demand in case of the implementation of energy efficiency measures. In this case the

demand is shrinking in the long run to a value of the European 2020 requirements (red

dashed line). It means the demand reaches the criteria of Europe 2020 in the long run,

though with a 10 years delay. RES targets are still not met however, although the value gets

quite close to the desired one.


The following figure shows the development of the region’s energy balance if regional RES are

fully activated. In case of the pilot region Savinjska the most prosperous are the biomass

(mostly wood) and solar energy, an important resource is also geothermal energy. It can be

seen that the renewable potential (blue line) as estimated is al most enough to cover the RES

2020 targets. The most important here are biomass in particularly wood and wood processing

by‐products, solar energy and in long run also geothermal energy in particular for heat

production. The use of solar radiation for energy purposes is still vastly unused although it

received the biggest growth in the recent years and it is now came to almost a complete stop

due to the changed support system. In order to reach the RES 2020 target solar energy can’t

be avoided. In order to achieve those targets also general energy demand should decrease by

applying energy efficiency measures.

RES (wood) use in heating households has got a long tradition in the region. Hence the share

of renewables for heat supply in household is rather high at 40%, high and above the national

average of almost 30%. The general share of RES, at the moment, is 37% and thus already

higher than the national target of 36% in the Europe 2020 documents.

Figure 4: Scenario of energy efficiency and RES use for Savinjska region


2 The tool: results and visualization of development scenarios

Since the development path is starting at the status quo, the scenarios have been attached

as an extension of the existing regional energy balance sheet:

• The first table in the balance sheet is representing the current situation

• The second table is representing the situation in which all potentials for

energy efficiency and energy savings have been implemented.

• The third table is representing the situation in which, additionally to the precedent

table, the desired amount of RES potentials has been activated.


Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Figure 5: Current energy balance of Savinjska region

However, the tables in the balance are reflecting only static situations, without giving a hint

on the development in the course of time and without comparing the development with the

requirements of the European energy policy.

In order to gain a more dynamic view of the planned development, the scenarios were put

into a time frame. The time frame starts in the year of the respective balance and includes

the period until 2030. The development is divided into sub‐periods. The first sub‐period

reaches from the year of the current balance to 2020. The next two sub‐periods extend from

2020 to 2025 and from 2025 to 2030.

The sub‐periods can also be regarded as short‐ (2020), middle‐ (2025) and long term (2030)

projection of development.


The reference system for the development projection is the energy related catalogue of

criteria in the Europe 2020 targets.

2.1 Basic data for scenario development, backward and forward projection

For the calculation of the scenarios, some basic data are needed. These data are: • The year the energy balance is referring to

• The national gross and final energy consumption in 2005 and the national gross and

final energy consumption in the year the balance is referring to.

In the Excel‐sheet these data are already provided and they need only to be selected

for the respective country and inserted in the marked cells.

These data are needed for the forward‐ as well as for the backward projection of the

energy demand, assuming, that the development of regional final energy

consumption equals the development of the national one.

From the changes in the demand between those years an annual growth rate is

calculated, which can be projected linearly into the future as a scenario of trend

prolongation. Depending on the sign of the growth rate this can result in an increase

or decrease of demand.


• The annual national growth rate of RES in energy supply. Also these data are needed

for trend calculation.

• The national share of RES target, according to the Europe 2020 documents. This value

is needed for calculating the reference scenario.

Figure 6: Basic data for energy development scenarios of Savinjska region

2.2 Scenario I – trend prolongation

The scenario of trend prolongation assumes the development of the energy demand if the

trend since 2005 is prolonged, without implementing any measures for energy saving and

efficiency and without measures for activation of regional resources. The trend

extrapolation assumes also, that the current growth rate (since 2005) of RES in the energy

supply is prolonged.

The development is put into relation with the Europe 2020 targets of energy efficiency and

share of RES in supply. Additionally, the maximum RES potential of the region is visualized.

All trends and values are calculated on the base of the current regional energy balance. This

scenario needs no further data input.


2.3 Scenario II: Energy saving and energy efficiency

Scenario II visualizes the impact of energy saving and/or increase of energy efficiency.

In contrary to the precedent scenario, this scenario needs to be defined. For the definition of

the efficiency or saving potentials, the data sheet: “Energy consumption & savings” has to

be opened.

Table 1 to the left is containing the regional final energy consumption data of the balance.

Table 2 to the right is used for defining the efficiency and saving potentials in % of the

current demand.

For defining the amount of energy (by energy carrier) which shall be reduced by efficiency or

saving measures in the long run, the %‐value of expected reduction has to be inserted into

the grey cells to the very right. At the end of the row, the average saving quote is showing

up. (see the red oval in the following image). Please note, that the calculated values are

regarded as long term targets in the respective chart! This means that the obtained values

will show up in the chart as goals for 2030.

The other rows of table 2 will show the amount of energy saved, as values in MWh/a. The

individual values for the respective energy carriers are summed up to show the total value of

reducible energy demand.


Table 1

Table 3

Table 3 the shows the reduced regional energy demand which should be achieved by the

efficiency and saving measures.

Table 1 Table 2

Table 3

Figure 7: Energy consumption and savings table of Savinjska region

The result of the operation is at one hand that the data are transferred to table 2 in the

balance, where the effects of saving and efficiency strategies are regarded, and, on the other

hand, the visualization in the chart contained in the datasheet: “Scenario II ‐ energy saving”,

as shown in the image below. Taking a closer look on the chart, a further detail is becoming

visible: The reduction of the demand also reduces the absolute value of the Europe 2020

target for RES in energy supply (green dotted line). The share of RES, of course, remains the

same.


In order to find out facts about the respective national energy efficiency strategies, which

surely have also an impact on the regions, please visit http://www.odyssee‐

mure.eu/publications/national‐reports and click on the map to get the data for your country.

Indicators, regarding energy efficiency, can be retrieved from:

http://www.indicators.odyssee‐mure.eu/online‐indicators.html

2.4 Scenario III: RES activation

Scenario III visualizes the effects of the activation of regional RES.

Similar to scenario II, the scenario needs to be defined. The definition of the amount of RES

to activate is done in the data sheet: “Resources”. The data sheet is containing four tables.

Table 1 and table 2 are containing the results of WP 4 regarding energy supply and resource

potentials, but also from WP 5 at the stage of establishing the regional energy balance.

Table 1 is containing the data regarding the current use of regional RES, be it for direct use

or for production of secondary energy like electricity or district heat.

Table 2 is containing the complete theoretical potential of regional RES, as estimated in

WP4. All the data gathered regarding renewable potentials need to be inserted here.

Table 3 is showing the remaining potential of regional RES, after subtracting the currently

used RES from the total potential.

In table 4, similar to the procedure in scenario II, the rate of activation of regional RES is

inserted. The other row in table 4 is the showing the amount of activated RES in MWh/a.

The inserted rate of regional RES needs to be, as in scenario II, the long term goal.


Table 1 Table 2

Table 4 Table 3

The results of this operation are visible in table 3 of the balance, where efficiency and

savings strategies together with the activation of regional RES are regarded. As a second

result in the data sheet: “Scenario III – RES activation” two charts are created.

The first chart is showing the effect of regional RES activation in comparison with the trend

prolongation in scenario I:


Second chart is regarding also the results of scenario II (saving and efficiency) and puts the

result, as in all charts, into relation with the Europe 2020 criteria:


3 Interpretation of the scenarios for the development path

The development path is consisting of two main components, which are energy efficiency

and energy saving strategies on one hand and regional RES activation on the other hand.

As mentioned before, the scenarios, except the trend prolongation scenario, have to be defined. This means, that the goals and strategies of the development path need to be drafted before and they have to be drafted in a long term view. The enhanced balances and especially the charts of the chosen scenarios are then showing the development in relation to the Europe 2020 criteria in the course of approximately one and a half decades up to 2030, in the case that all frame conditions are remaining stable.

Therefore, the development path template can also be used to check different variants of

development paths.

The charts are also containing the theoretical maximum amount of RES within the region, according to the data collection in WP 4, marked by a blue line.

One of the results is, if and when the goals of the Europe 2020 strategy can be achieved by

the chosen regional development path.

The selected scenario follows what we could call “De minimum” principle. In that

municipalities (region) are mainly following the directions given by the national legislation

regarding the local energy concepts. According to the (new) Energy Act EZ‐1 they are obliged

to comply with the goals set in national REAP. This alone is already quite a task for some of the

local communities and for some also mission impossible (e.g. in electricity production).

Therefore some kind of combining forces comes natural to them although many times difficult

because of local peculiarities of historical nature (most of the municipalities are relatively

young). Due to all these factors participating municipalities’ representatives decided to follow

the path they could reach rather than to ambitious targets that are even more difficult to

achieve. The milestones used in nREAP are hence applied.

The starting point for the region are the obligations that are set in the nREAP and the main

declared commitment expressed in Declaration for the sustainable development signed by

municipalities and many institutions and companies.

According to the national reports the concept region are more or less in line with the targets

for the energy efficiency (9% target) and slightly below the RES targets (about 1.5 percentage


point).

One important new factor in the equation is also the new governmental politics and

renewable energy ‘support’. After turning from FIT to sort of combined quota system, the

open call for new projects is simply not there anymore, because of the “lack of money”. The

overheated PV market brought some overspending for FIT that were to high (did not follow

the decreasing investment cost fast enough) which resulted in much increased interest in

building PV plants and ended up with an abrupt lowering of FITs, change of the support system

and finally stop of the support to all new projects (not just PV).

Apart from PV all other RES projects were much less appealing for investors; hence greater

efforts were needed for realising them. Without state support the new projects needed for

raising the RES share are much more difficult to realise and when the common praxis in

municipalities is considered they are not very likely. Therefore at least in 2014 and probably

2015 would not be possible to maintain the desired growth of the renewables. Therefore the

minimal ‐ national RES development scenario chosen by municipalities is rather logical.


4 References • Daljinsko ogrevanje Saleške doline, Nik Naveršnik, (District heating of Saleška valley). • Development Strategy of the Electrical Power System of the Republic of Slovenia 2011‐

2020, ELES. • Distribucija zemeljskega plina, Kristian Robar, (Natural gas distribution). • Energetska bilanca republike Slovenije za leto 2012, 2013, Ministrstvo za infrastrukturo

in prostor, ) Energy Balance of RS). • Geografski informacijski sistem za področje obnovljivih virov energije,

http://www.engis.si/. • Municipalities’ Local Energy Concepts. • National Renewable Energy Action Plan 2010 – 2020, Republic of Slovenia, Ministry of

the Economy, Energy Directorate. • National Statistical Office, SORS, www.stat.si. • National Strategic Reference Framework 2007‐2013, Government Office for Local Self‐

Government and Regional Policy. • Osnutek Regionalnega razvojnega programa RRP Savinjske razvojne regije za 2014‐

2020, RASR in ORA, (Regional development plan draft). • Razvojni načrt prenosnega plinovodnega omrežja za obdobje 2011 – 2020, Geoplin

plinovodi, (Natural gas grid development plan). • Razvojni program podeželja občin Dobje, Dobrna, Slovenske Konjice, …, Občina Šentjur,

(Countryside development program of municipalities Dobje, Dobrna, …). • Razvojni program podeželja za občine Velenje, Šoštanj, Šmartno ob Paki, Savinjsko‐

šaleška območna razvojna agencija. • Regionalna zasnova prostorskega razvoja Savinjske regije, Urbanistični inštitut

Republike Slovenije (Regional space development plan). • Regionalni razvojni program RRP Savinjske regije za 2007‐2013, RASR (regional

development plan). • Resolution on the National Environmental Action Programme 2005–2012 (NEAP). • Second National Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2011 – 2016, Republic of Slovenia,

Ministry of the Economy, Energy Directorate. • Second National Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2011 – 2016, Republic of Slovenia,

Ministry of the Economy, Energy Directorate. • Slovene Regions in Figures, SORS, http://www.stat.si/publikacije/pub_regije.asp. • WISDOM Slovenia, Annex 6, Final Report, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Food.

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20140417 5-3-2 development path Savinjska - CEP …...The development path of the regions is relying on the results in WP 3 and WP 4, where energy demand and energy supply as well