2014-Q2 Virginia Home Sales Report

VIRGINIA Home SAleS RepoRt se

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Published by Virginia association of reaLtors®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.


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Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

2014-Q2Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®

Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia TechPage 2

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

January February March April May June July August September October November December

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Virginia Month-to-Month Sales TrendsSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

2011 2012 2013 2014

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2011 4,728 5,116 7,145 7,311 8,391 9,223 7,970 8,136 6,916 6,263 6,070 6,7582012 5,068 5,775 7,213 7,698 9,064 9,740 8,664 9,026 7,213 7,261 7,400 6,8382013 5,528 5,911 7,456 8,660 10,454 10,763 10,344 10,104 8,138 7,887 6,882 7,3562014 5,333 5,595 6,910 8,402 9,555 10,291

Sales increased from 9,555 in May to 10,291 in June (7.7%). June is typically the peak of the spring and summer selling seasons, therefore we expect sales to begin to decrease in July. Sales in the first half of 2014 have been consistently lower than sales in 2013, but generally higher than sales in 2011 and 2012. This trend indicates that the housing market has entered a period of slow growth and for the near term this trend may represent the “new normal.” Decreasing mortgage rates may provide a short-term boost to the market.




17,105

24,906

23,001

19,09918,056

26,502

24,911

21,509

18,910

29,962

28,755

22,478

18,031

28,248

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2

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Virginia Quarterly Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

The pace of home sales was 5.72% lower in the second quarter of 2014 compared to the second quarter of 2013. Virginia typically experiences the highest number of sales in the second quarter, but the third quarter market can show similar strength. Decreasing unemployment rates throughout the country coupled with lower mortgage rates may produce a relatively strong third quarter.

-5.72%YOY




84,194

81,36783,570 84,111 85,062

86,65888,568

90,978 91,832

95,292

99,136 100,105 99,22698,031

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2

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Virginia Annualized Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown. For example, the 2014-Q2 figure (98,031 sales) includes home sales from July 2013 through June 2014. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market.

Our annualized sales metric decreased by 1,195 sales from 2014-Q1 to 2014-Q2, reaffirming evidence that the market recovery is slowing and may have plateaued. As 2014 sales have been consistently lower than sales in 2013, we do not expect to see growth in this metric through the remaining quarters of 2014.




Region 2013-Q2 2014-Q2 ChangeCentral Valley 1,594 1,621 1.7%

Central Virginia 4,687 4,597 -1.9%Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 6,442 6,253 -2.9%

Northern Virginia 14,194 12,823 -9.7%Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 2,240 2,188 -2.3%

Southside Virginia 440 430 -2.3%Southwest Virginia 360 326 -9.4%

All of Virginia 29,957 28,238 -5.7%

Central Valley+1.7%

Northern Virginia-9.7%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg-2.3%

Southwest Virginia-9.4% Southside Virginia

-2.3%Hampton Roads /Chesapeake Bay

-2.9%

Central Virginia-1.9%

Regional Changes in Sales2013-Q2 vs. 2014-Q2 Units

Almost every region of the state experienced a slower pace of sales compared to the second quarter of 2013, with exception of the Central Valley. Most regions experienced only small changes, between 1% and 3%. Northern Virginia and Southwest Virginia experienced the most dramatic year-over-year change, a 9.7% and 9.4% decrease in sales respectively.




$210

,000

$232

,694

$235

,000

$220

,000

$215

,000

$249

,500

$248

,000

$241

,000

$233

,000

$269

,900

$254

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$249

,000

$235

,000

$267

,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2

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Virginia Median Residential Sales PriceSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

The median sales price in Virginia increased 1% over the past year to $267,000. Looking at the longer term trend, the median sales price in Virginia has increased by 14.7% over 2011-Q2. The median sales price increased substantially from 2014-Q1 to 2014-Q2, exhibiting the typical seasonal trend. We can expect prices to decrease next quarter, but the degree to which prices decrease will depend on late summer demand. If interest rates remain very low and unemployment decreases, prices may remain fairly steady through the third quarter.

+14.7%

-1.07%




Region 2013-Q2 2014-Q2 ChangeCentral Valley $220,000 $225,000 2.3%

Central Virginia $200,000 $208,000 4.0%Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay $211,565 $214,500 1.4%

Northern Virginia $385,000 $385,000 0.0%Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg $165,000 $161,000 -2.4%

Southside Virginia $82,000 $80,000 -2.4%Southwest Virginia $115,000 $114,000 -0.9%

All of Virginia $269,900 $267,000 1.1%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg-2.4%

Central Valley+2.3%

Northern Virginia0%

Southwest Virginia-0.9% Southside Virginia

-2.4%Hampton Roads /Chesapeake Bay

+1.4%

Central Virginia+4.0%

Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices2013-Q2 vs. 2014-Q2

Moderate year-over-year change in sales prices was experienced consistently throughout most of the state. Southwest Virginia, the Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg region, and Southside Virginia all experienced year-over-year decreases in price likely related to decreased demand in these regions, and possibly related to an influx of lower-priced homes available due to increased REO sales. The Central Valley, Central Virginia, and the Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay regions experienced increases in median price. Northern Virginia experienced no year-over-year change in median price.




4,503

7,307

6,789

5,275

4,866

8,197

7,684

6,446

5,498

9,913

9,308

6,936

5,326

9,340

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

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11,000

2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2

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Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($M)Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

This graph illustrates the dollar value of real estate sold (in millions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the second quarter of 2014 ($9.3B) decreased 5.78% from the second quarter of 2013 ($9.9B) primarily due to a slower pace of sales. This quarter’s median sales price was only slightly lower than the median price in the second quarter of 2013.

-5.8% YOY




2,816

6,791

6,551

4,441

2,823

3,202

1,030

450

104

40

3,010

7,224

6,708

4,733

3,041

3,648

1,017

438

91

53

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000

0 - $100K

$100K - $200K

$200K - $300K

$300K - $400K

$400K - $500K

$500K - $750K

$750K - $1M

$1M - $1.5M

$1.5M - $2M

$2M +

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

Pric

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Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

2013-Q2 2014-Q2

-6%

-6%

-2%

-6%

-12%

-7%

1%

3%

-25%

14%

There were fewer sales of homes costing less than $500K and more than $2M in this quarter than in the second quarter of 2013. Sales increased 1% in the $750K-1M range, 3% in the $1M-1.5M range and 14% in the $1.5M-2M range. Even though these increases represent a relatively small number of sales, the market for homes in these ranges continues to expand despite a plateau of overall sales. The decrease in year-over-year sales was most substantial in the $2M+ price range (25%). Since this price range always contains a very small number of sales, drastic fluctuations are normal. Nonetheless, there have been year-over-year decreases in this category for two consecutive quarters. Decreases in the remaining ranges were moderate.




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71 71

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2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2

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Virginia Average Days On MarketSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

Days on the market remain low, but increased 3% year-over-year. Time on the market decreased substantially from the first quarter to the second, because Virginia usually experiences the least market activity in the first quarter while the market’s peak is in the second quarter. The market typically remains very active throughout summer, resulting in similarly few days on the market in the third quarter.

+3%YOY




Region 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 ChangeCentral Valley 38 40 5%

Central Virginia 297 238 -20%Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 479 488 2%

Northern Virginia 486 459 -6%Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 89 105 18%

Southside Virginia 21 39 86%Southwest Virginia 12 28 133%

All of Virginia 1,422 1,397 -2%

Central Valley5%

Northern Virginia-6%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg18%

Southwest Virginia133% Southside Virginia

86%Hampton Roads /Chesapeake Bay

2%

Central Virginia-20%

Regional Changes in Foreclosures2014-Q1 vs. 2014-Q2

Many areas of Virginia continued to experience increases in foreclosures in the second quarter of 2014. The Central Valley, the Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay region, the Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg region, and Southside have all experienced increases in foreclosures in the previous two quarters. Increases in foreclosures in Southside and Southwest Virginia seem particularly drastic because the foreclosure numbers in those areas are so small. Compared to the first quarter, there were 16 more foreclosures in Southwest Virginia, 18 more in Southside, and 16 more in the Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg region. Only Central and Northern Virginia experienced decreases in foreclosures.




10,4839,555

455,000417,000

0

100,000

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0

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May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14(p)

Monthly Residential SalesVIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)

$268,000 $263,000

$203,600 $213,600

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14(p)

Monthly Residential Median Sales PriceVIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)

Changes in median sale price in Virginia also consistently track changes in price in the United States as a whole. Median sales price is consistently higher in Virginia, but the difference between prices in Virginia and the United States as a whole has narrowed in 2014.

The pace of Virginia home sales tracks the United States sales pace fairly closely and has continued to do so throughout 2014. Sales in the United States as a whole and in Virginia have increased steadily since January. Virginia’s pace increased slightly faster earlier in the year, but has slowed relative the United States as a whole in recent months.




Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, May 2014

(U.S. rate = 6.3 percent)

14.0% and over

12.0% to 13.9%

10.0% to 11.9%

8.0% to 9.9%

6 0% t 7 9%

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

6.0% to 7.9%

4.0% to 5.9%

3.9% or below

6.5% 6.6%6.2%

5.9% 6.0% 5.9%5.6%

5.3%5.5%

5.8%5.4%

4.9%5.1%

4%

5%

5%

6%

6%

7%

7%

2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2

Virginia Unemployment RateSource: Bureau of Labor & Statistics

Virginia’s unemployment rate increased in the second quarter of 2014 to 5.1% in May. Virginia remained at the second lowest level of unemployment in the United States. United States unemployment decreased in June, which indicates that Virginia’s unemployment likely decreased as well (Virginia’s June unemployment rate has not yet been released).

2013-Q3 unemployment rate based on preliminary August 2013 data.




4.66%

4.31%

4.01%3.92%

3.80%

3.54%3.36%

3.50%3.69%

4.44%4.30% 4.36%

4.23%

3.0%

3.2%

3.4%

3.6%

3.8%

4.0%

4.2%

4.4%

4.6%

4.8%

2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac

3.9%

3.5%3.3%

3.2%3.0%

2.8%2.7% 2.7%

2.9%

3.5%3.4% 3.4% 3.3%

2.0%

2.2%

2.4%

2.6%

2.8%

3.0%

3.2%

3.4%

3.6%

3.8%

4.0%

2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2

Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac

Both 30-year and 15-year mortgage interest rates decreased in the second quarter of 2014. As rates have continued to decrease in July, low rates may begin to affect the pace of sales.




The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS® active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success.

All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to:

Stacey Ricks, Chief of Marketing and CommunicationsVirginia Association of REALTORS®10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059(804) 249-5716 [email protected]/HomeSales

Economic Regions

Central Valley:

Central Virginia:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Southside Virginia:

Southwest Virginia:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City

Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chester�eld, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex

Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York

Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City

Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc.All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

Documents

2014-Q2 Virginia Home Sales Report