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M A R K E T I N T E L L I G E N C E • A N A L Y S I S • B E N C H M A R K I N G
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MICROGRIDS MARKET UPDATES
MARCH 6, 2015
PETER ASMUS PRINCIPAL RESEARCH ANALYST
Microgrid Market Is Global Phenomenon
2
Total Microgrid Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2Q 2014
(Source: Navigant Research)
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
» Global climate change-related extreme weather patterns building support for microgrids in the U.S., currently top microgrid market
» Yet, Asia Pacific may be best market long term » Remote (off-grid) microgrids are best hope for developing world,
according to the United Nations › Cell phone leapfrogging telecom analogy › Solution for climate change and ending energy poverty › Modular, pay-as-you go/grow business models
» Physical islands most attractive remote opportunity today › High fuel costs and supply vulnerability › Single negotiating party entity for larger scale systems
Today’s Buzz: Microgrids!
3 ©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Technology Drivers for Remote Microgrids
4
» Declining cost of solar PV » High cost of diesel » Highest revenues per MW
› $7 million to $15 million per MW » Three primary segments
› Commodity extraction systems › Physical islands › Village electrification (initiatives
of U.N., World Bank, Clinton Global Initiative, Rockefeller Foundation) ‒ A-B-C model is current focus
Graciosa Island (Azores, Portugal)
(Source: Younicos)
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Leading DG Choices Going in Opposite Directions on Price
Solar PV and Diesel Fuel Price Trends: 2001-2013
(Source: HOMER Energy)
6 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Grid Resiliency Now a Major Issue in United States
(Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
U.S. Power Outages Affecting 50,000 Customers Caused by Extreme Weather
7 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Annual Total Microgrid Capacity by Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Microgrid Scenarios Reflect Uncertain Future
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
(MW
)
Conservative Scenario
Base Scenario
Aggressive Scenario
(Source: Navigant Research)
8 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Annual Total Microgrid Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
Microgrid Forecast Based on System Capacity
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
(MW
)
North AmericaEuropeAsia PacificLatin AmericaMiddle East & Africa
(Source: Navigant Research)
Physical Island Remote Microgrid Revenue
9
Physical Island Microgrid Revenue, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
(Source: Navigant Research)
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
($ M
illio
ns)
North America
Europe
Asia Pacific
Rest of World
Asia Pacific Leads Remote Microgrid Revenue
10
Remote Microgrid Revenue, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
(Source: Navigant Research)
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
($ M
illio
ns)
North AmericaEuropeAsia PacificRest of World
11 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
» Islands are the low-hanging fruit › High cost of power › Sufficient scale for cost effective project developments
» Developing world energy access strategies › United Nations, World Bank, Rockefeller Foundation, Clinton Global
Initiative, etc. › Synergy with cellphone tower explosion and nanogrids
» Was Thomas Edison right? › Increasing DC power sources (solar PV, wind, batteries) › Increasing DC loads (mobile phones, laptops, and other
power electronics)
Why Remote Microgrids Are Best Opportunity Today
12
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