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7/28/2019 2013 06 20 - EBIX WORTH NO MORE THAN 8, LIKELY A ZERO
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GOTHAM CITY RESEARCH LLC
EBIX:
Shares are worth no more than
$8.00 per share, and likely headed to
$0.00 per share
7/28/2019 2013 06 20 - EBIX WORTH NO MORE THAN 8, LIKELY A ZERO
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Disclaimer:
By reading this report, you agree that use of GOTHAM CITY RESEARCH LLCs (GCR) research is at your
own risk. In no event will you hold GCR or any affiliated party liable for any direct or indirect trading
losses caused by any information in this report. This report is not investment advice or a
recommendation or solicitation to buy any securities. GOTHAM CITY RESEARCH LLC is not registered asan investment advisor in any jurisdiction.
You agree to do your own research and due diligence before making any investment decision with
respect to securities covered herein. You represent to GCR that you have sufficient investment
sophistication to critically assess the information, analysis and opinion in this report. You further agree
that you will not communicate the contents of this report to any other person unless that person has
agreed to be bound by these same terms of service.
You should assume that as of the publication date of this report, GOTHAM CITY RESEARCH LLC stands to
profit in the event the issuers stock declines. We may buy, sell, cover or otherwise change the form or
substance of its position in the issuer. GCR disclaims any obligation to notify the market of any such
changes.
Our research and report includes forward-looking statements, estimates, projections, and opinions
prepared with respect to, among other things, certain accounting, legal, and regulatory issues the issuer
faces and the potential impact of those issues on its future business, financial condition and results of
operations, as well as more generally, the issuers anticipated operating performance, access to capital
markets, market conditions, assets and liabilities. Such statements, estimates, projections and opinions
may prove to be substantially inaccurate and are inherently subject to significant risks and uncertainties
beyond GOTHAM CITY RESEARCH LLCs control.
Our research and report expresses our opinions, which we have based upon generally available
information, field research, inferences and deductions through our due diligence and analytical
process. GOTHAM CITY RESEARCH LLC believes all information contained herein is accurate and
reliable, and has been obtained from public sources we believe to be accurate and reliable.
However, such information is presented as is, without warranty of any kind, whether express or
implied. GCR, makes no representation, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or
completeness of any such information or with regard to the results to be obtained from its use. All
expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice, and GOTHAM CITY RESEARCH LLC is not
obligated to update or supplement any reports or any of the information, analysis and opinion
contained in them.
7/28/2019 2013 06 20 - EBIX WORTH NO MORE THAN 8, LIKELY A ZERO
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GOTHAM CITY RESEARCH LLCa
Research Note
Ebix shares are worth no more than $8.00/share Ebixs valuation at 1x revenue is$5.45/share, valuation at 12x normalized earnings (at a 33% tax rate) is $9.72/share, and its
tangible book value/share is negative. A simple average of these estimates gets you below
$8.00/share. Note that these incorporate some very generous assumption, given the
accounting irregularities, regulatory event risk, flat/declining organic growth, tax risk, and
other risks identified in our prior reports.
Ebix shares are likely worthless Ebix owes at least $80 million to creditors, has a negative
net cash position, and potentially owes over $100 million to U.S. taxpayers (in back-taxes,
penalties, and interest). This doesnt include additional costs related to the SEC investigation
or class-action lawsuits. Given negative organic growth, its unclear how Ebix will pay its
creditors & taxpayers. Governments throughout the world are targeting institutions undersuspicion of tax-related malfeasance. Ebix is the worst offenderpar excellence.
Huge distraction for management Its unclear how Ebixs management can successfully
navigate its declining operations even as Ebix faces the trifecta of the IRS, SEC, and DOJ. Ebix
will also have to stop violating Microsofts intellectual property rights, which means
additional software-related costs going forward.
A criminal indictment would be unsurprising Many Americans go to jail for allegations far
less serious than the ones that Ebix, Robin Raina, and related parties face. It would not
surprise us at all to see a criminal indictment, given Ebixs intentional misconduct.
Goldman Sachs will likely be vindicated for walking away We applaud Goldman Sachs for
exercising prudent risk management, and walking away from this deal. We hope that theexecutives at Goldman who played key roles in rejecting this deal will be rewarded.
Ebix and Robin Raina did not address our core concerns Robin Raina claims that the
allegations in the class-action suits are without merit. He did not say that the allegations are
false. Nor did Raina say that Gotham City Researchs allegations are false.
A CEO who lies about his charitys finances cannot be trusted, period Robin Raina
foundations tax filings are inaccurate; hes never denied this. You should assume that theres
something wrong here. Whenever Raina has ignored an allegation, its ended up being true.
True value investors will stay away from Ebix There is no margin of safety against fraud, as
famous value investors Benjamin Graham and Seth Klarman have taught. Klarman famously
warned, Beware of the value pretenders, those who buy stocks because they are down but
not necessarily cheap.
Be fearful of what the regulators know We have provided regulators with additional
information that has yet to be publicly disseminated, and we will likely continue to aid in
their efforts. Gotham City Research has no obligation to share our additional findings with
the public. You should assume that its materiality equals, if not exceeds, what weve
published so far. You should not assume Ebixs cash position is necessarily as they portray.