2012WWK-PPT-The Looming Food and Water Crisis in Asia by Peter Rogers

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The Looming Food and WaterCrisis in Asia

Peter Rogers

Harvard University and the National University of Singapore

28/08/2012



n erna ona oo ecur y ssessmen , ‐

ERS Report

GFA

‐23,

July

2012,

US

Department

of

Agriculture

Overall food security is estimated to improve between 2011 and 2012. The

number of food‐insecure people is estimated to decline by about 12 million,

from 814

million

in

2011

to

802

million

in

2012.

‐

insecure people from 2011 to 2012, but a 22‐percent increase in the

distribution gap.

Over 2012‐2022, the number of food‐insecure people in the 76 countries

covered by this report is projected to increase by 37 million, or 4.6 percent,

much lower than the 16.7‐percent increase in population. The distribution gap

The number of food‐insecure people is projected to decline for Asian

countries (2.5 percent) included in the report, while the distribution gap

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declines

by 28

percent.



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ecen ma or mpac s o e roug may ma ethese numbers less relevant!



-

– total food supplies – urban demand for hi h ualit food

– climate and water

– ener .

Social and Political uncertainties

• prices• bio-fuel diversions

• trade wars

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Acce erat on o o a Trans t ons



• “Urban Population Transition” large and rapidly growing urban populations

and large malnourished rural populations

• “Nutrition Transition” ra id shifts in demand for food t es and uantities

consumed

• “ ”

climate, and leading to insecurity of supply and volatility in food prices

“ ”

of agriculture, huge losses in the food chain from farm to consumer leading

to industrial scale agricultural systems

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• “Energy Transition” end of cheap petroleum era and move to renewables



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Fig. 1 Changes in the relative global production of crops and animals since 1961 (whenrelative production scaled to 1 in 1961).

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H C J Godfray et al. Science 2010;327:812-818

Published by AAAS



28/08/2012Guyomard et al., p. 8, 2011



Global Contribution of Agriculture to

Bellarby, et

al,

2008

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The 20th Century decline in food prices

P

’

S'

28/08/2012Q



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European Environment Agency, Forecast of global water demand, 2010



• Po ulation size is not the roblem the distribution of food

among population groups is a major problem

• Total quantity of food produced is not a problem; meeting the

eman s or g qua ty ets s a ma or pro em

• Shortage of land and low ag. productivity are pressing

roblems the can be resolved b mechanizin the food

production systems

• Reducing supply fluctuations is a major problem requiring

mo ern management o a eman ase oo c a n re y ng on

more efficient ag. inputs, storage, and transport

•

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non-grain food demands



• Mix horticulture on a substantial scale in areas with strengthenedlogistics

• Try out well-tested precision irrigation technology such as centerpivots and drip

• For large community-concessions initially rely on professionalmanagers

• Climate- roof new develo ments b rovidin drou ht and floodprotection

• Introduce public/private participation in management of state-built

and run s stems.• Use marketing and logistic skills of modern agribiz to integrate the

local production into regional and global food chains andsi nificantl reducin food losses

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28/08/2012Sus Ag Climate, p. 19



Agriculture‐inducedChange diet&

reduce waste

a f e s p

a c e

c t i o n

Global

Population

food needs

t h i n t h e s

o d

p r o d u

2050 based

on

current trendsSafe

Space Reduce

agricultural

r a t i n g w i

G l o b a l f

TodayMaximum food

production

emissions

O p

Reduction of water availability due

to climate changeAda tation ield

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improvements &

increased efficiencyBased on Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change, p. 7, 2012.

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2012WWK-PPT-The Looming Food and Water Crisis in Asia by Peter Rogers