20120215_2012GoldInvestorsGuide

7/28/2019 20120215_2012GoldInvestorsGuide

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GOLDBy Je Clark, Editor oBIG GOLD

I n v e s t O r s G u I D e


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GOLD I n v e s t O r s G u I D e

A Casey Research Special Report 2

Welcome to Casey Research!Were glad to send you our brand new2012Gold Investors Guide, an updated version o ourwildly popular Three Best Ways to Invest in Gold

special report.

Were absolutely condent that i you ollow itsadvice, youll be in position to make spectaculargains in gold in the months and years ahead.

Now, we dont recommend investing in gold be-cause were gold bugs. We do it because gold is thesaest way to protect yoursel rom ailing curren-cies and out-o-control governments... and becauseits the best way to prot rom undamental actorsworking in your avor.

So Why Should YouInvest in Gold?Lets call the global crisis what it is: the worstnancial collapse since 1929.

Housing prices are down 33% rom their bubble

peak in 2006, and we believe the end o the declineis still not in sight. While worldwide stock mar-kets have recovered some o their 2008 losses, ewinvestors are condent that a lasting recovery ishere to stay. And unemployment continues to risein most developed countries.

Governments the world over are debasing their cur-rencies by lowering interest rates, and many haveresorted to quantitative easing, a ancy term that

means nothing more than printing money. In theUS, the number o dollars in circulation has tripled

since 2008, while worldwide, M2 one measure omoney supply is up in all G7 countries.

omorrows ination is already baked in the cake.

And while the cry to cut government spendinggets louder, the decit and debt continue to grow.Te ocialdecit or 2011 is estimated at $1.6trillion, although in reality its almost $2 trillion.otal US debt at the end o 2011 was $15.2 trillion.

How has gold responded to all o this? BetweenJanuary 2007 and January 2011, gold rose 144.7%,while the S&P 500 ell 11.3% in the same period.

And while gold has corrected signicantly since

last summer (2011), its still up 13.4% or the year,while the S&P 500 is at with a gain o 0%.

Here are the closing prices or gold or the end othe each year rom 2000, along with the percent-age increase rom the preceding year:

2000 $271.502001 $278.1 (gain o 2.43%)2002 $347.50 (gain o 24.96%)2003 $415.20 (gain o 19.48%)

2004 $437.10 (gain o 5.27%)2005 $516.60 (gain o 18.19%)2006 $636.00 (gain o 23.11%)2007 $833.30 (gain o 31.02)2008 $880.80 (gain o 5.7%)2009 $1,095.60 (gain o 24.39%)2010 $1,421.60 (gain o 29.76%)2011 $1,566.40 (gain o 10.19%)

Te bottom line is that since the end o 2000, gold

has risen 477%. Heres what this spectacular gainlooks like on a graph:


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Over the same period, the S&P lost 4.7%.Even sharp corrections like the 20% drop rom

August to October 2008 shown in the chart haventaltered the trend o this massive bull market.

Gold and Silver vs. Other Investment

Classes During the Past Five Years


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As you can see, despite the sharp correction in thelast quarter o 2011 the precious metals sector hasbeen the place to be. Gold rose or an eleventh con-secutive year, setting yet another nominal record($1,900.30). From 2007 through 2011, it gained

155.49%. Silver did nearly as well, gaining 116.6%.

And the DOW? It lost 1.9%. Te S&P did evenworse, dropping 11.3%.

Clearly, gold and silver have rewarded investorshandsomely in 2011, notwithstanding the ex-tremely volatile year.

Our portolio has held up extremely well, despitethe volatility o 2008 and 2011. Overall, its up

14.9% or the period o 2007-2011.

While that may not seem so impressive, considerthe act that the Dow, S&P 500, and many othermarkets lost money during that time and that ourpublished portolio gains do not include dividends.

Meanwhile, many CNBC types and governmentocials continue to claim that gold is in a bubble oroutright declare it as a poor investment. Amazing.

Is It Too Late to Investin Gold?Absolutely not.

While gold has had a good run, our researchshows that whats ahead will be, quite rankly,spectacular. By positioning yoursel now, youllbe in ahead o the crowd and will prot tremen-

dously as greater masses rush in.Tink about this: Te near-veold increase weveseen in the gold price has happened during aperiod o no price ination to speak o no e-ects o the atrocious increase in the money sup-ply. Imagine what will happen to the price o goldwhen serious ination kicks in, as it certainly will.Investors will stampede to gold as never beore.

Here, specically, is why we think its not too late:

1. Gold is an ination hedge. As the Fed contin-ues cranking up the printing presses, oodingthe economy with paper money, and as nation-

al debt skyrockets at unprecedented rates, thereis no question that sooner or later (we thinksooner), ination will come roaring back witha vengeance.

Teres no doubt that the current administrationand Federal Reserve are committed to printingenough money so that the dollar will continueto be devalued. Afer all, its the only legitimateway or them to ever be able to repay their debts.And gold is the #1 way to protect yoursel romthe inationary results o their actions.

2. Gold is a dollar hedge. Mounting pressure onthe dollar rom negative real interest rates anddebasement rom all the government bailouts,debts, and money printing are all conspiring topush the dollar lower (notwithstanding the actthat the Dollar Index was at or 2011 due toinvestors eeing to US reasuries in the ace oEuropes debt woes).

Gold has moved higher against the US dollarevery year since 2000, and its done even betteragainst euros, Swiss rancs, Canadian dollars, orBritish pounds. Tats a solid, unbroken, globalbull market.

Tink about this: Unlike paper money, which haslost 96% o its purchasing power since the incep-tion o the Federal Reserve in 1913, golds pur-

chasing power has essentially stayed the same.Imagine that in 1930 when the averagemonthly wage was $165 and gold sold or $21 anounce you had hidden a one-ounce coin un-der your mattress. And lets say your neighborstashed the same amount o money away $21in one-dollar bills.


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Back then, that coin would have bought you agood-quality suit. Fast orward to today: thatone ounce o gold will still buy you a nice suit.

And consider this: In 1900, $1 bought 14 loaves

o bread; but in 2010 it would only get you 16slices rom one 20-slice loa.

At some point, it might well be cheaper to useyour depreciated paper money as toilet paperthan to buy actual bathroom tissue with it.

When not i that situation occurs, gold willtake the proverbial moon shot that weve beentalking about or years.

3. Gold is money. Troughout recorded history,

gold has been an accepted means o exchangeworldwide. It ullls the our criteria or money:Its divisible, portable, durable, and limited insupply (in the era o Ben Helicopter Bernankethe ourth criterion technically disqualies theUS dollar as money).

Gold and Dollar, CPI-Adjusted

Even though its price is subject to uctuation, goldhas never been worth zero.

And i times get truly desperate such as theGreater Depression Doug Casey has been predict-ing or years a gold coin will hold much greater

value than a pocketul o dollar bills.

Were not the only ones who think so. Legendaryhedge und manager John Paulson owns 20.3 mil-lion shares in the SPDR Gold rust, a bullion gold

holdings EF more than several major countriescombined. And Michael Pento (chie economistat Delta Global Advisors Inc.) announced that therm is doubling its gold holdings to 8%, addingthat, Anything the government cannot replicateby decree, I want to own.

Tere are a growing number o voices expressingthe same sentiment.

Right now you may be asking how gold will are


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i we have a serious depression. Te answer lies inthe Great Depression itsel.

From the summer o 1929 to the summer o 1935,the Dow lost 66.7% (rom 381.17 to 127.27). Mean-

while, the two biggest mining companies in theworld at the time Homestake Mining and DomeMines gained 519% and 558%, respectively (theprice o gold itsel was articially pegged at $35/ozby the government).

he bottom line is, even in a depression, goldwill more than hold its own in terms o pur-chasing power.

When Will Gold Take Of?Because the Fed continues to pour money intothe economy, its dicult to say or certain whengold will make a dramatic move. Te historicalrecord indicates that a surge in money growth hasits peak eect on economic activity about 9-18months later. Add another 12 months or so or thepeak eect on consumer price ination.

In other words, the Federal Reserve is always driv-ing with a loose steering wheel. Most o the experi-ence behind those numbers is with relatively tameups and downs in the business cycle not the kindo nancial violence weve been seeing over the lastseveral years, which adds another variable. And ontop o that, the numbers are about peak eect, notinitial eect.

So while pinpointing the exact timing is dicult,what we do know is that there are clear andunavoidable consequences to wildly energeticmoney creation, including, sooner or later,rampant price ination.

Are there signals? Te primary sign wont beinows to EFs (although they are indicators), or

jewelry sales (the 70s bull market had nothing todo with bracelets), or even dramatic increases in

the sale o physical bullion (we had that in 08 andgold was up 5.5% hardly meteoric).

No, the payday rise in gold will occur whenthere is a signiicant shit in the psychology o

the general public.Tat shif is already starting to appear: Accordingto the World Gold Council, demand or gold wasat a ten-year high in 2010 despite a 40% increasein price between 2008 and 2010. For Q3 o 2011,demand was up 6% compared to the same periodin 2010.

Another sign that the publics psychology aboutgold is shifing is that the US Mint requently sus-

pends sales o its more popular coins due to over-whelming demand.

Institutional investors are starting to enter thegold market as well. In April o last year, the Uni-

versity o exas announced that its endowmentund (the second-largest in the country next toHarvards) had taken possession o a billion dol-lars worth o physical gold.

Gold and gold-denominated investments areamong the biggest positions o the $5 billion hedgeund Greenlight Capital, which has more thandoubled its holding in the Mark Vectors GoldMiners EF to over seven million shares.

Beore the gold rocket takes o, lets look at thethree best ways I know o to invest in gold so thatyoure positioned ahead o the crowd.

Best Way #1:PHYSICAL GOLDGiven the state o the global economy and the USgovernment continuing to administer large doseso the wrong medicine, we rst recommend thatall investors place rom 10% to 20% o their invest-ments in gold bullion and coins.


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We dont mean 10-20% o your gold portolio; wemean 20% o all your liquid assets.

Sounds extreme, we know. But even i the globaleconomy remains in a deationary dip and gold

struggles or a while, gold remains the sae harborduring the upheaval.

Remember, its not simply a question o inationor deation; its a crisis. And thats exactly whatgold ownership is or.

Bernanke and Geithner wont be rewriting history;theyll be part o it.

Nothing replaces having physical gold in your pos-

session and under your control.

Where to Buy Physical GoldI you know an honest, reputable coin dealer inyour area, thats a good place to start or smallerpurchases. Our editors buy their gold either with alocal dealer or online, but either way its importantto nd a reputable dealer... as in every line o busi-ness, theres no shortage o crooks.

In our experience, the best places to buy physicalgold are:

1. MilesFranklin.com (1-800-822-8080). MilesFranklin has some o the deepest contacts in theindustry and as a result has been able to sourcemetal when many other dealers cant. And withsome o the best prices in the industry, theyreone o our top picks. Be sure to tell them yourecalling rom Casey Research to get the best deal.

2. thecoinagent.com (1-888-494-8889, or [email protected]). Proprietor WayneLemonier has some o the lowest costs weveseen in the industry.

3. bordergold.com (888-312-2288, ext. 7). BorderGold in Vancouver, BC is where we go or theCanadian Maple Lea. Costs are so low that you

will likely get a better total price with shippingincluded at Border Gold than you would at yourlocal coin shop.

4. assetstrategies.com (1-800-831-0007 in North

America). Asset Strategies International inMaryland carries a ull range o one-ounce bul-lion coins. ASI also oers the option o storinggold outside the US.

5. davidhall.com (1-800-759-7575). We go to oneplace or rare or numismatic coins: Van Simmonsat David Hall Rare Coins, who actually helpedcreate the Proessional Coin Grading Service. Wedont recommend entering the numismatic world

as an investor unless you are or are willing tobecome a knowledgeable coin collector.

Keep in mind that premiums and delivery timeswill uctuate according to market conditions.

Tere are other online dealers out there, and somemay have good prices, too. Te things to watchor are total costs (including product, shipping,and insurance) and availability; i a dealer claimsit will be several weeks to locate the product,

we would look elsewhere. Its also not uncommonto nd salespeople who try to talk you into otherproducts, such as proo sets or rare coins (this isespecially true with the dealers that advertise onV), so beware o the hard sell.

We havent had that experience with our recom-mended dealers.

Where do you store your gold? Tere isnt a magic

bullet or saekeeping, as each orm has its ownrisks. Physical gold is subject to thef and re; pa-per gold is subject to raud and mismanagement.Te most prudent approach is to own more thanone orm o gold, in more than one location, withan edge toward physical ownership.

Weve prepared an in-depth report that outlinesyour options here.
http://www.milesfranklin.com/http://www.thecoinagent.com/http://www.bordergold.com/http://www.assetstrategies.com/http://www.davidhall.com/http://www.davidhall.com/http://www.assetstrategies.com/http://www.bordergold.com/http://www.thecoinagent.com/http://www.milesfranklin.com/


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Gold Accumulation PlansYou can get started owning physical gold with aslittle as $100 a month, thanks to new savings pro-grams that can automatically withdraw the money

rom your bank account.

So, instead o shelling out $1,600 or more or anounce o gold, you can start buying that ounce andmore in monthly installments. Tese programs canalso store your gold as well (you can also accumulatesilver through these programs).

Weve vetted dozens o programs and have oundthree to be worthy o recommendation: BullionVault,GoldMoney, and SilverSaver.

SilverSaver, despite the name, allows you to purchasegold, too. It is the most convenient o these programsto automatically purchase physical metal. Storage isat the First State Depository in Delaware.

With BullionVault, you get a ree gram o gold uponregistration, and you can choose storage in Zurich,London, or New York. Premiums are cheap, and iyou have online bill paying ability, you can choose

how much you want to automatically contribute toyour account.

GoldMoneyallows you to buy platinum and palladi-um in addition to gold and silver. However, the onlyway to und it is through a wire transer, which addsto your overall cost. Storage options are London, Zu-rich, or Hong Kong, and prices are very competitive.No automated purchase plan is available or NorthAmericans, but is or Europeans.

BullionVault and GoldMoney arent really designedor delivery (although it can be arranged), so i youintend to eventually take possession, SilverSaver isyour best bet.

Best Way #2: PAPER GOLDWhile there is no substitute or having physical gold

under your immediate control, holding paper prox-ies or the metal can be a useul portolio supple-ment. In recent years, the market has responded toburgeoning demand or convenient ways to tradecommodities by creating a galaxy o exchange

traded unds (EFs). Tese are designed to mirrorthe ups and downs o the underlying commodityand can be bought and sold like a stock.

1. Te largest and most popular gold EF, SPDRGold Shares (GLD), buys and holds gold bullionin a secure London vault, with each share trad-ing at approximately 1/10 the price o an ounceo gold on the spot market. GLD has done a verygood job o ollowing golds lead, posting gains

that have been only slightly below that o the met-al itsel (due to costs). GLD represents a simple,eective way o extracting some paper protsrom golds bull run. We like the EF PhysicalSwiss Gold Shares (SGOL) even better, since thegold is stored in Switzerland and the custodialstructure is less complicated.

2. Want a und with both gold and silver? CentralFund o Canada (CEF) is a closed-end und thats

made up o roughly 55% gold and 42% silver.Te major dierence between it and an EF isthat EFs are structured to keep the share price

very close to net asset value (NAV). Not so witha closed-end und, which responds much morestrongly to market sentiment about the unditsel. Tis means that shares in a gold-based,closed-end und can trade at a steep discount toNAV or at a premium. Over time, while CEFrises and alls in tandem with gold, those who

buy at a discount and sell at a premium will getan added kicker and those who do the oppositewill get kicked. o watch or the best entry point,

visit the CEF website rom time to time and clickon Net Asset Value. Te gure is updated daily.

3. Perth Mint Certicates (PMCs)are a orm opaper gold. Te additional advantage a PMCprovides over EFs is that it gives you instant in-
https://silversaver.com/https://bullionvault.com/http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=biggoldhttp://www.centralfund.com/http://www.centralfund.com/http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=biggoldhttps://bullionvault.com/https://silversaver.com/


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ternational diversication. Te disadvantage is thatit doesnt trade like a stock, as theyre designed ormore long-term holdings. Its also the only govern-ment-backed bullion storage program vaulted andinsured by the state o Western Australia. Tere

is a US$10,000 minimum initial purchase and aUS$5,000 minimum or subsequent purchases.

Best Way #3:THE RIGHT GOLD STOCKSGold stocks are a leveraged way to play a risinggold price. You might look at gold as your deenseand gold stocks as your oense. When the gold

price really heats up, gold stocks will rise exponen-tially more. It is this volatility that will bring uswhat we believe will be lie-changing prots.

One bit o caution, though: with this added lever-age comes added risk. Gold stocks exhibit greater

volatility than gold in both directions. Tis hastwo implications:

Our company recommendations should not beviewed as amily heirlooms you can hold into oldage or leave to your children. At some point we willbe selling our stock positions to lock in big gains.

We recommend you avoid trading. You may readothers who recommend doing this, but trading inour opinion is not a prudent way to capture the biggains. Keep in mind that you must be right twice tomake one protable trade; you must correctly timethe bottom and correctly time the top to capturea gain. A wrong call on one o those can keep you

rom proting. And worse what i you get caughton the sidelines and the stock takes o without you?

Our best advice on how to buy a gold stock can besummed up in three words.

Buy. Hold. Repeat.

Buy when prices drop and give you attractive entry

points. Gold stocks wont go up in a straight line,and when those inevitable pullbacks come, you arebeing given the opportunity to initiate or add topositions at great prices.

Tats what the BIG GOLD editors do.

Hold meaning dont trade it, time it, or run therisk o getting caught on the sidelines with stockstaking o. Plus, youll get to sleep better at nightthan those who try their hand at timing.

And repeat until the rest o civilization joins usand pushes our prices much higher.

Until the mania kicks in, we do recommend tak-

ing prots when youre up by, say, 30% or more.Tis is how we come up with the cash to buy morestocks and bullion.

By ollowing this simple strategy, one can accumu-late substantial positions over time at good prices.

In act, Doug Casey has ofen said that his successas an investor has come down to one key actor:being able to recognize the dierence betweensomethings price and its value. Whenever theresa large discrepancy between these two in any ormo investment, its an opportunity to prot. Andthats especially true with gold stocks right now.

Why Gold Stocks AreGathering StrengthInvestors are becoming increasingly antsy to nda place to put their money that doesnt lead to

the kind o negative returns that are inevitableor stocks, bonds, houses, and om Brady-auto-graphed ootballs or the oreseeable uture.

Once ination begins to ramp up, there will evenbe a widespread questioning o the value o cur-rency itsel. People will turn to historys premiersae haven, gold.


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As we said beore, gold is money when nothing else is.

One o the criteria that make gold suitable asmoney is its limited supply. And although worldgold production has been rising since 2008, it is

still below its 2001 peak. O the eight largest gold-producing countries in the world, six have declin-ing production and thus bring ewer and ewerounces to the market every year.

Further, in the most recent data available, the WorldMining Congress reported some alarming statistics:

Based on historic averages, 75% of all discoveredgold has been mined.

In spite of massive increases in exploration

spending, new discoveries are declining.

Te traditional search space for gold is beingdepleted.

Newer mines are being found in more techni-cally challenging and politically risky areas.

Make no mistake: A decrease in global gold pro-duction will underpin the bull market or years.

At the same time, demand is skyrocketing. Cen-

tral banks have been net buyers o gold since 2009.And 20 out o 22 und managers interviewed in2010 bought physical gold or personal investmentbecause they ear quantitative easing programswill lead to ination. In other words, not only arethey buying gold in their unds, theyre also stash-ing some at home.

India and China are also accelerating their goldpurchases. According to the World Gold Coun-

cil, the countries demand or gold grew 38% and25%, respectively, in Q2 2011 and during the sameperiod in 2010. And they account or 52% o allinvestment demand or gold.

Despite the insatiable world appetite or the yel-low metal, the companies that produce the stuhave not been appropriately rewarded. Teir stockprices remain relatively inexpensive.

Tat will change. As gold moves steadily higher,gold stocks will start to catch up.

And this is just the beginning.

Te stocks that prosper the most will be those pro-ducers that are best at combining growing revenuestreams with eective cost controls and propertiesin areas where mining activity is welcomed.

Mr. Conservatives ApproachTe easiest, simplest, and most conservative way toprot with gold stocks is to buy into a gold-stockmutual und that has a low expense ratio. While

there are thousands o mutual unds, there areonly a couple dozen gold-stock unds, and not allmake a good investment, in our opinion.

Tere is a second conservative way to buy goldstocks that most o the investing public is not yetaware o: gold royalty companies. Tese are theleast-risky gold stocks because they buy a xedpercentage interest in a mines gross productionand let the mining company do the dirty work. Inother words, they prot as gold is mined and theprice rises, but they have no risks to productiontroubles or rising costs. Teyre conservative butdont mistake this to mean they wont be prot-able: one royalty company was our top perormerin 2008, and another topped our portolio in 2009and 2010.

And while gold stocks as a group were down in2011, two o our three royalty company recom-mendations were up or the year.

When gold (and silver) take o again, prot marginso these companies will soar, as will their share prices.

Our Secret to PickingGold StocksWhen it comes to picking gold stocks, BIG GOLD


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seeks out the most undervalued and makes themlong-term holdings. We do it by analyzing thestandard metrics: P/E ratios, revenue growth,market capitalization (or market cap), and debt/equity. Tat last one is particularly important; i

a company is carrying too much debt and has torenance to und operations, its not likely to raisethe cash on very avorable terms.

But there are other actors unique to our sectorthat must be considered. We know demand israging and supply dwindling, so we look closelyat what proven reserves a company has in theground, how quickly theyll be able to get themout, and at what cost. Once we know this, we can

calculate a net asset value or each miner that en-ables us to compare it to its peers.

Tis net asset value, put through our proprietarymathematical model, allows us to assign eachcompany a number we call the Valuation Ratio(VR). A VR o 1.0 denotes a company that is airly

valued, so the urther a stocks VR alls below 1.0,the more undervalued it is. Conversely, companiesover 1.0 would be overvalued. Our valuation ratio

is updated every 30 minutes during trading hours.Afer taking into consideration a gold (or silver)miners VR, along with the standard metrics, wethen plug in the intangibles, asking questions like:Are the companys mines in politically stable areas?How is managements experience?

Are the local governments supportive? And so on.Te answer to some o these questions explainswhy we dont recommend some o the largest gold

mining companies, despite having low VRs.

In the end, we arrive at a list o what we believe arethe best o the best.

Size MattersTere are dierent sizes o gold producers, each withits own level o risk and reward. Heres the breakdown:

Major Producers. Tese companies have multipledeposits, usually in multiple countries, and areconsidered majors because o the size o their re-serves and market cap. Generally, a major produc-es over one million ounces o gold per year. Tey

tend to carry less risk than smaller companies, andtheir stock prices are less volatile.

Mid-Tier (or Intermediate) Producers. A mid-tier company produces 100,000 to 1 million ounc-es o gold per year. Risk varies rom company tocompany. Perhaps more so than the majors, theirprotability is closely tied to the price o gold; asgold rises, these companies will show exponen-tially greater prots.

Small Producers. Tese are companies that areeither just starting to produce, have smaller opera-tions, or just one mine. Tey tend to have higherrisk because they may lack diversication and arethus vulnerable i they experience a problem withtheir primary project. Yet they tend to see thehighest growth prole, and as they add reserves orother properties, the market will typically revaluethe business and reprice its stock upward. More

risk, but more upside potential.

Opportunity rom CrisisCrisis and opportunity are as tightly bound asgold and money. Te current challenging marketbrings with it tremendous opportunities or in-

vestors in precious metals. Many o these oppor-tunities are presented every month in BIG GOLDrom Casey Research.

Id like to invite you to give it a try or just $79 ora ull-year, 12-issue subscription. Its completelyrisk-ree you may cancel any time within 90 daysor a 100% reund. As soon as you subscribe, youllhave access to our portolio recommendations andall back issues.

Learn More Now!
http://www.caseyresearch.com/orderv7Cgr.phphttp://www.caseyresearch.com/orderv7Cgr.php


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A C R h S i l R t 12

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20120215_2012GoldInvestorsGuide