2012 College Basketball Team Previews

11/12/2012 ESPN The Magazine 79photograph by DYLAN COULTER

OFFENSIVE RATING A measurement that factors a player’s points, assists and o!ensive rebounds per 100 possessions.

TERMS YOU’LL NEED TO KNOW FOR THIS STORY

TEAM OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY Points scored/allowed per 100 possessions.

ASSIST PERCENTAGE Teammate field goals on which a player assisted while on the floor.

BLOCK PERCENTAGE Two-point field goal attempts a player (while on the floor) or team blocked.

STEAL PERCENTAGEOpponent possessions that end with a steal. For a player, it accounts only for his time on the floor.

TURNOVER PERCENTAGE A team’s or opponent’s possessions that end in a turnover.* 2011-12 stats courtesy of

KenPom.com and Synergy Sports Technology LLC.

IF YOU’VE GROWN up hoops crazed, surrounded by cornfields and bluegrass, have we got a top 25 for you. Bloomington is abuzz with a legitimate shot at Indiana’s first national title in a quarter-century; Louisville’s adopted son, Peyton Siva, has more than just back-to-back Final Fours in mind; and as for Kentucky’s perpetually youthful Cats, the fine, sensible folks of Lexington ask only for another banner. Yes, according to our map, the road to Atlanta will run right down I-65. Of course, it wouldn’t be college basketball without a season of detours. So to help guide you, we consulted the experts: Our resident bracketologist, CAPSULES BY IAN GORDON

Power Rankings

*

Big Ten avg. starting G Big Ten avg. starting F/CMaurice Creek, G

Jordan Hulls, G

Victor Oladipo, G

Christian Watford, F

Cody Zeller, F 130100 110 120

THE CANDY-STRIPED PANTS, the Assembly Hall sellouts, the No. 1 preseason ranking—maybe these are your

father’s Hoosiers. Led by POY front-runner Cody Zeller, IU returns all five starters from one of the nation’s most

potent o!enses, which put up a Big Ten–best 77.3 ppg. Tom Crean will surround his seven-foot sophomore with 6'9" inside-outside threat Christian Watford (12.6 ppg,

5.8 rpg), sharpshooter Jordan Hulls (49.3 3FG%) and high-energy guard Victor Oladipo. Depth is of no concern

with a trio of ESPN 100 freshmen: PG Yogi Ferrell, SF Jeremy Hollowell and PF Hanner Mosquera-Perea,

all Indiana natives. But the D needs work. Last season, IU allowed 77 or more points in six of its nine losses,

including the 102-90 Sweet 16 shootout against eventual champ Kentucky. Without a sti!er defense,

these Hoosiers will never repeat the wins of the fathers.

INDIANAProjected Big Ten finish: 1st

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to stop the Hoosiers o!ense:Arrive with Hulls on the catch, defend Watford early in the post and switch all ball screens when he is at the 4. Match Oladipo’s energy and keep him o! the glass. Run the floor with Zeller and pressure and blitz all of his low-post catches. Contain Ferrell in transition. Be aggressive against the team’s half-court sets; IU had the fourth most e"cient o!ense in D1. Force Indiana to make plays outside of its plays in the halfcourt.

Nov. 27 vs. North CarolinaFirst time the programs have

met since UNC won at Bloomington in ’04.

Feb. 19 @ Michigan St.Statement game against the defending Big Ten champ. IU

lost at East Lansing in ’11-12.

March 10 @ MichiganA grand finale if both teams live

up to top-five hype. IU hasn’t won in Ann Arbor since ’08.

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 1

124.9 93.8Team o!ensive e"ciency

Team defensive e"ciency

Joe Lunardi, picked each team’s March-worthy matchups and bravely predicted NCAA tourney seeds four months early; former Virginia Tech coach and current ESPN analyst Seth Greenberg used X’s and O’s to show that no one is unbeatable; and Dan Hanner, an economist by day and RealGM.com contributor by night, crunched each team’s next-level numbers to project o!ensive ratings for the players who should see the most minutes. Even after all that, just like the landscape in Indiana and Kentucky, this is one wide-open field.

1

11/12/2012 ESPN The Magazine 81photograph by DYLAN COULTER80 ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012 CHRISTOPHER HANEWINCKEL/US PRESSWIRE

2 3Big East avg. starting G SEC avg. starting GBig East avg. starting F/C SEC avg. starting F/CPeyton Siva, G Archie Goodwin, G

Wayne Blackshear, G/F Ryan Harrow, G

Chane Behanan, F Nerlens Noel, F

Luke Hancock, F Alex Poythress, F

Gorgui Dieng, C Kyle Wiltjer, F130 130100 100110 110120 120

ANY DOUBTS ABOUT Rick Pitino’s most valuable Cards are dispelled with a look at what the horse racing

aficionado named his two newest thoroughbreds: Gorgui and Siva. Pitino is betting on 6'11" Gorgui Dieng to

anchor UL’s matchup zone and senior Peyton Siva to spur an O that ranked 13th in Big East play, scoring just 98.2 points per 100 possessions. Siva must feed junior

SG Russ Smith, the top returning scorer (11.5 ppg), and emerging sophs Chane Behanan down low and Wayne

Blackshear on the perimeter. And he has to change UL’s turnover-prone ways after the team coughed up

14.1 TOs per game. Should Siva do all that, Pitino’s team will have another inside track come March.

NOW THAT JOHN CALIPARI has shed the can’t-win-the-big-one label, what’s to slow Kentucky down? Losing six guys to the NBA is tough, but this latest version of Cal’s

Kids features the nation’s top recruit in 6'10" Nerlens Noel, 6'7" SF Alex Poythress (No. 13, ESPN 100) and

6'5" SG Archie Goodwin (No. 15), all projected first-round picks. With 6'10" pick-and-pop specialist Kyle Wiltjer (17.2 points per 40 minutes) back for his sophomore

season (surprise!) and NC State transfer Ryan Harrow stepping in at PG, the Cats’ starting five can meet

expectations. If you Kentucky fans are worried about a thin bench, relax. In last season’s title run, Cal gave subs just 21.6% of minutes, which ranked 323rd in the nation.

LOUISVILLE KENTUCKYProjected Big East finish: 1st Projected SEC finish: 1st

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to stop the Cards o!enseSiva is the key. This is his third season as a starter, and he probes defenses better than any guard in the country. You have to keep him in front and make him a scorer, and don’t bite on penetration o! of Dieng and Behanan; it will open up easy scoring opportunities. You can shrink the court by dropping o! the perimeter because UL is weakest as a jump-shooting team, especially from beyond the arc, where it hit just 31.8% of threes last season.

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to beat the Cats defensePut Noel, Poythress and Wiltjer in ball-screen situations. You have to control the tempo of the game and make each possession count, not only on the scoreboard but on the clock. Wear down the Cats’ athleticism and keep them from taking advantage of transition. You must think about playing Kentucky like this: Carve out 10 four-minute games. And if you keep it close late, all the pressure will be on a team still trying to establish its identity.

Dec. 15 @ MemphisEarly rematch against a team

UL put at the top of its résumé in ’11-12.

Nov. 9 vs. Maryland (Brooklyn)

We’ll see if the young Cats look at home on a pro stage.

Dec. 29 vs. KentuckyA win against bitter rival

could erase bad taste from last season’s Final Four.

Nov. 13 vs. Duke (Atlanta)There isn’t a tougher

two-game start in college basketball.

Jan. 19 vs. SyracusePitino had beaten

Jim Boeheim seven straight times before last season.

Feb. 12 @ FloridaA lot of Gators return

for revenge after three losses to UK in ’11-12.

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders

109.9 119.8

83.2 90.8

Team o!ensive e"ciency




Projected NCAA tournament seed: 1 Projected NCAA tournament seed: 1

11/12/2012 ESPN The Magazine 83photographs by DYLAN COULTER82 ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012 FROM LEFT: TONY DING/BRUCE SCHWARTZMAN SPORTS; BOB DONNAN/US PRESSWIRE; SCOTT CUNNINGHAM/GETTY IMAGES

7Big Ten avg. starting G Big Ten avg. starting F/CAaron Craft, G

Lenzelle Smith Jr., G

Evan Ravenel, F

LaQuinton Ross, F

Deshaun Thomas, F 130100 110 120

FORGET ABOUT FILLING Jared Sullinger’s shoes. How will Thad Matta replace that space-clearing All-America

butt of his? While Sully and his derriere collect checks from the Celtics, junior PG Aaron Craft and junior SF

Deshaun Thomas will go to work on planning a return trip to the Final Four. Craft creates havoc on defense and led the Big Ten in steals percentage (4.7%), while a varied O

helped the 6'7" Thomas post a 122.1 rating, tops among Buckeyes. But Craft must attack the basket and finish

more frequently, and Thomas needs to improve on the defensive boards, where Sullinger will be most

missed. OSU ranked second in the country by allowing opponents to grab just 25.1% of their missed shots.

ALL EYES ARE on sophomore Trey Burke, who led the team with 14.8 ppg, 4.6 apg and 36.1 mpg but opted to bypass the draft. He headlines a Wolverines squad that will rely on serious minutes from a trio of ESPN 100 freshmen (SF Glenn Robinson III, PF Mitch McGary and SF Nik Stauskas) after losing Zack Novak and Maryland transfer Evan Smotrycz, who shot a combined 42.0% on threes last year. Which is why Burke’s No. 3 jersey won’t be what coach John Beilein has his eye on. It will be Tim Hardaway Jr.’s three-ball—the junior led the team in attempts but made just 15.1% in UM’s 10 losses.

LAST FALL, BILL SELF said he was as nervous as he’d ever been entering a season. Note to Self: not falling for that line again. KU will use a by-committee approach to replace Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor, two keys in last season’s title game run, as frosh PF Perry Ellis (No. 35, ESPN 100) and soph PG Naadir Tharpe can’t do it alone. But Self shouldn’t be skittish, because like last year’s No. 4 D (86.0 points per 100 possessions), these Hawks have athletic wings in 6'6" Travis Releford and 6'4" Elijah Johnson and seven-foot senior Je! Withey, who led the nation with a 15.3% swat percentage.

AFTER THREE DECADES of reliving the Jim Valvano clip, Raleigh is finally the prime stop on Tobacco Road again. In just one season, Mark Gottfried turned the Wolfpack from an ACC also-ran into a Sweet 16 squad that barely missed the Elite Eight. Four starters return from that 60-57 loss to runner-up KU, joined by top-20 Raleigh recruit SG Rodney Purvis. Did we mention their preseason rank is higher than Duke’s and UNC’s for the first time since 1975? And if last season’s top scorers, F C.J. Leslie (14.7 ppg) and PG Lorenzo Brown (12.7 ppg), continue to mature, Gottfried could be the one running to find a hug.

OHIO STATE

MICHIGAN KANSAS NC STATE

Projected Big Ten finish: 3rd

Projected Big Ten finish: 2nd Projected Big 12 finish: 1st Projected ACC finish: 1st

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to beat the OSU defenseYou have to be stronger with the ball against the Buckeyes than against any other team. They’re as physical a half-court D as there is in the country. So limit live-ball turnovers. Craft has great hands and anticipation and does a good job of pressuring the ball and getting deflections. If you’re loose with the ball, he’ll have it going the other way. Attack them in transition and in the first eight seconds of the shot clock, before they can set up their half-court defense.

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to beat the Wolverines defenseWhen the team goes to its bread and butter, a 1-3-1 zone, take care of the ball. Don’t pick up your dribble until you’ve created a passing lane, and always move the ball to a second side. Jordan Morgan can be late trying to hedge, so keep putting him in ball screens. Push hard in transition too, as UM is inconsistent at getting back.

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to stop the Jayhawks o!enseStand up Ellis and Withey in the post—don’t allow them good position. Make it di"cult for them to reverse the ball through the high post. You must take away their ball-screen game by pushing up on the ball screen and going under, denying their runs to the rim. Self’s high-low is predicated on creating lanes for the posts.

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to stop the Wolfpack o!enseTake away Scott Wood’s catch-and-shoot threes; NC State won all 10 games when he hit four or more last season. If Brown attempts to post up a smaller guard, stay home and make him a scorer. Put a body on Richard Howell and Leslie early on the weak-side duck-in, and look to take the charge when they work to the middle.

Nov. 9 vs. Marquette (Charleston, S.C.)

A loss on the U.S.S. Yorktown would alter OSU’s outlook.

Dec. 22 vs. KansasA win in this Final Four

rematch could eventually be worth a top seed.

March 5 @ IndianaThe Hoosiers are much better than last season’s four-point

loss in Bloomington.


111.4

116.1 110.7 116.9

87.6






Nov. 12 vs. IUPUI

NIT Tip-O! opener. Reaching the title game is a must.

Nov. 13 vs. Michigan State

(Atlanta)Two of ’11-12’s

most e"cient D’s.

Nov. 15 vs. Penn State (San Juan)

NCS must reach Puerto Rico final.

Nov. 27 vs. NC State

The Wolverines lost the last

meeting in 2006.

Jan. 6 vs. Temple

A win would be a springboard into

the Big 12.

Dec. 4 vs.Connecticut

(NYC)UConn has nothing to lose in Jimmy V.

Feb. 2 @ Indiana

Starts a brutal four-game stretch, three on the road.

March 9 @ Baylor

The Bears snuck up on KU in last year’s

Big 12 tourney.

Feb. 23 @ North CarolinaWolfpack haven’t won this matchup

since 2007.

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders

Trey Burke, G Elijah Johnson, G Lorenzo Brown, G

Tim Hardaway Jr., G Ben McLemore, G Rodney Purvis, G

Mitch McGary, F Travis Releford, G Richard Howell, F

Jordan Morgan, F Perry Ellis, F C.J. Leslie, F

Glenn Robinson III, F Jeff Withey, C Scott Wood, F130 130 130100 100 100110 110 110120 120 120

90.5 86.2 91.5Team defensive e"ciency




4 5 6

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 2 Projected NCAA tournament seed: 2 Projected NCAA tournament seed: 3

Big Ten avg. starting G Big 12 avg. starting G ACC avg. starting GBig Ten avg. starting F/C Big 12 avg. starting F/C ACC avg. starting F/C

84 ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012 CAL SPORT MEDIA/AP IMAGES

8Big East avg. starting G Big East avg. starting F/CMichael

Carter-Williams, G

Brandon Triche, G

DaJuan Coleman, F

C.J. Fair, F

James Southerland, F 130100 110 120

THE CUSE’S 2-3 ZONE terrorizes with its lane-closing length, which led to the top defensive e!ciency (93.6

points per 100 possessions) and steals percentage (13.3%) in Big East play last season. Those openings might be even slimmer this year, when Jim Boeheim

pairs 6'6" soph Michael Carter-Williams with 6'4" senior Brandon Triche to stifle opposing backcourts. Many see

Carter-Williams—just 10.3 mpg stuck behind three guards last season—as the next Orange breakout (see:

Wes Johnson and Dion Waiters). Before he starts having lottery dreams, though, he’ll have to prove that

he can replace the output of departed seniors and top two scorers Kris Joseph and Waiters.

SYRACUSEProjected Big East finish: 2nd

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to beat the Cuse defenseAttack the 2-3 by running cutters through and bringing a post behind. Do not go to the short corner or the baseline unless it’s for a shot. The Orange will look to trap all short-corner passes. Carter-Williams and Triche are so long and athletic at the top of the zone, and their forwards come up so high, it’s hard to make an easy pass. Get the ball to the middle to force DaJuan Coleman and Rakeem Christmas to defend the high post. You must o"ensive rebound.

Nov. 9 vs. San Diego State (Battle on the Midway)

The Orange are tested early on the aircraft carrier.

Jan. 9 @ ProvidenceFriars are looking for first win since ’09 but have enough to pull an early Big East upset.

March 9 @ GeorgetownCuse eked out a three-point

OT win last season. Sad if this rivalry ends.


116.7

92.0

Team o"ensive e!ciency

Team defensive e!ciency


86 ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012 FROM LEFT: FRANK FRANKLIN I I /AP IMAGES; JAE C. HONG/AP IMAGES; CHRIS CARLSON/AP IMAGES

DUKE HAS LOST two in a row to end a season just three times since ’85, making last season’s ACC tourney exit and subsequent first-game NCAA tourney loss that much more stunning. While many blamed one-and-done guard Austin Rivers, who took 21% of Duke’s shots but had the lowest o!ensive rating (104.7) of any starter, the Devils’ backsliding D (47 2FG% for opponents, 136th in D1) was the main culprit. To avoid a repeat, Coach K will rely on seniors Seth Curry, Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee to make sure frosh Rasheed Sulaimon (No. 12, ESPN 100) fits in rather than sticks out.

UCLA’S FIRST SEASON in the new Pauley rides on two freshmen: 6'6" Shabazz Muhammad (No. 2, ESPN 100) and 6'9" Kyle Anderson (No. 5), though neither had been declared eligible at press time. Bruins fans can’t really trust UNC transfer PG Larry Drew II, who hasn’t surpassed a 94.1 o!ensive rating, or C Joshua Smith, who dropped in almost every major stat as a soph. So it may fall to twins David and Travis Wear, UCLA’s leading returning scorers, to bring back Pac-12 title hopes to Westwood. Because according to most of our pollsters, UCLA plummets out of the Top 25 without Muhammad and Anderson.

WITH FOUR DEEP-BOMBING guards last season, the Gators shot their way to the nation’s third most e"cient o!ense, scoring a whopping 38.1% of their points on threes. This season, pass-first PG Scottie Wilbekin takes the reins, which could mean more touches for junior post Patric Young, whose summer regimen mimicked that of Florida alum Ryan Lochte (the weekly strongman workouts, at least). For UF to open up the floor for senior Kenny Boynton (15.9 ppg), though, Young will have to show better moves than the ones that netted him just 0.9 points per possession down low last season.

DUKE UCLA FLORIDAProjected ACC finish: 2nd Projected Pac-12 finish: 1st Projected SEC finish: 2nd


SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to stop the Blue Devils o!enseSwitch all Kelly screens and take away the pick-and-pop. Arrive on the catch on Curry—no room-and-rhythm threes. Make him put the ball on the floor, and stay down on his shot fake. All help should come o! guards Quinn Cook and Tyler Thornton. Run the floor with Plumlee, and keep him o! the glass.

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to stop the Bruins o!ensePressure Drew, who was erratic at UNC. Take away Travis Wear’s pick-and-pop by pushing up and going under ball screens. Be physical with Anderson, and don’t double because he’s a terrific low-post passer. Keep Muhammad in front. He’s excellent going to the rim, so bigs should be ready to step up for a charge.

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to beat the Gators defenseYou have to attack Young. Make him defend every possession, whether it’s post-ups, o!-ball screens or ball screens. He is the only legitimate post player that Billy Donovan has on his roster, so limiting Young’s time on the floor can be the di!erence between winning and losing when you play the Gators.

116.9 116.5 120.0Team o!ensive e"ciency



Nov. 13 vs. Kentucky (Atlanta)

Coach K last saw the Cats in ’01.

Nov. 19 vs. Georgetown (Brooklyn)

A win will erase last season’s 2–5 start.

Nov. 9 vs. Georgetown

(Jacksonville)Must-win opener in

a rare meeting.

Jan. 12 @ NC State

Resurgent Pack haven’t beaten the Devils since 2010.

Dec. 1 vs. San Diego State

(Anaheim)Surprisingly, first

meeting since ’91.

Dec. 15 @ Arizona

Gators build on thrilling OT win in

Gainesville.

March 9 @ North Carolina

An 18-point loss in Durham began last postseason’s slide.

March 2 vs. Arizona

Payback after being ousted from

Pac-12 tourney.

Feb. 12 vs. Kentucky

Must beat Cats at home after losing three in ’11-12.


Quinn Cook, G Kyle Anderson, G Kenny Boynton, G

Seth Curry, G Larry Drew II, G Mike Rosario, G

Rasheed Sulaimon, G

Shabazz Muhammad, G/F Scottie Wilbekin, G

Ryan Kelly, F Travis Wear, F Erik Murphy, F/C

Mason Plumlee, F Joshua Smith, C Patric Young, C130 130 130100 100 100110 110 110120 120 120




9 10 11


ACC avg. starting G Pac-12 avg. starting G SEC avg. starting GACC avg. starting F/C Pac-12 avg. starting F/C SEC avg. starting F/C

11/12/2012 ESPN The Magazine 89photographs by DYLAN COULTER88 ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012 MIKE CARTER/US PRESSWIRE

12Big Ten avg. starting G Big Ten avg. starting F/CKeith Appling, G

Branden Dawson, G

Gary Harris, G

Derrick Nix, C

Adreian Payne, C 130100 110 120

NOW THAT DRAYMOND GREEN has graduated, Tom Izzo is challenged with replacing the forward’s do-everything

style of play. Stud freshman 2-guard Gary Harris (No. 11, ESPN 100) certainly will help. Bigs Derrick Nix

and Adreian Payne, already adept on the o!ensive glass, will pick up the slack on the defensive end, where

Green grabbed 28.5% of available boards. O!ensive orchestration? PG Keith Appling tripled his assists per

game from his freshman to sophomore year (in just eight more minutes per game). Make no mistake,

though: The Spartans’ standout D (42.4 2FG% and 29.9 3FG%) is bigger than one player and will carry

the momentum from 2011-12 into this season.

MICHIGAN STATEProjected Big Ten finish: 4th

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to stop MSU’s o!enseIzzo brings a football mentality to basketball. You must be prepared for special situations, because Izzo looks to score out of timeouts, underneath out of bounds and side out of bounds. You also need to take the Spartans out of their speed game and have them make plays instead of score out of their plays in the halfcourt. You must cut Branden Dawson, Payne and Nix o! the o!ensive glass—the second shot is often the Spartans’ best o!ense.

Nov. 13 vs. Kansas (Atlanta)

Izzo’s rematch with Bill Self from the 2009 Sweet 16.

Feb. 19 vs. IndianaState held Cody Zeller to just four points in East Lansing

last season.

March 2 or 3 @ MichiganSparty has lost three of the last four against the

rival Wolverines.


113.9

89.1




13ACC avg. starting G ACC avg. starting F/CReggie Bullock, G

P.J. Hairston, G

Dexter Strickland, G

Brice Johnson, F

James Michael McAdoo, F

130100 110 120

WITH JOHN HENSON and Tyler Zeller in the NBA—and few experienced options left down low—UNC won’t again run 16.6% of its plays through the post (a Carolina high

under Roy Williams). Instead, the Tar Heels will rely on a five-man backcourt rotation, including frosh

PG Marcus Paige (No. 22, ESPN 100). If soph James Michael McAdoo can up his production from 0.9 points

per possession and Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald return healthy, this could be the nation’s

deepest collection of guards. It would take a repeat of last season’s catastrophic injuries—McDonald,

Strickland and Kendall Marshall all missed significant time—to keep this team out of the ACC title mix.

NORTH CAROLINAProjected ACC finish: 3rd

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to stop UNC’s o!enseGet back. Defensive transition is key because the Tar Heels run the floor as consistently and hard as any team in the country. They averaged 72.2 possessions per game last year, 10th most in D1. Paige has the potential to be special in Williams’ fast-paced attack. So you must get the Heels into a half-court game. Limit sophomore P.J. Hairston’s scoring opportunities and be physical with McAdoo o! the ball. You have to bump all cutters in their motion.

Nov. 27 @ IndianaTwo of last season’s most

explosive o!enses square o! in Bloomington.

Dec. 29 vs. UNLVUNC can’t let Mike Moser go

o! for 16 points and 18 boards like in last year’s loss.

Feb. 23 vs. NC StateIt’ll be tough for UNC to

sweep the Wolfpack for the sixth straight regular season.


115.8

91.5




90 ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012 FROM LEFT: BRUCE SCHWARTZMAN; JOE MURPHY/GETTY IMAGES; LENNY IGNELZI/AP IMAGES

A YEAR AFTER Josiah Turner (last year’s No. 3 prep PG) washed out with two suspensions and an aborted Euro stint, Sean Miller has to hope no player in Zona’s No. 3 overall class gets derailed. Yes, a trio of freshmen, C Kaleb Tarczewski (No. 4, ESPN 100) and PFs Grant Jerrett (No. 9) and Brandon Ashley (No. 16), are the focus in Tucson, but given Turner’s defection, PG Mark Lyons (15.1 ppg), a Xavier transfer, could be the di!erence maker. If Lyons is to prop up an NIT team, the senior needs to mind his trigger (team-high 20.8% of shots last year) and feed the freshmen and senior F Solomon Hill (12.9 ppg).

TO RID THE Tigers of Calipari’s ghost, SGs Chris Crawford and Joe Jackson and 6'9" F Tarik Black—all members of Josh Pastner’s first class—must finally live up to their blue-chip billing. And Black needs to stay on the floor. Last season, his 119.5 o!ensive rating led Memphis starters, but Black topped 30 minutes in only 15 games because of foul trouble, getting whistled four or more times in 45.7% of games. Black will get a lift in the frontcourt, as 6'9", 246-pound frosh Shaq Goodwin (No. 31, ESPN 100) debuts and soph Adonis Thomas reprises Chris Douglas-Roberts’ role as a high-volume scorer.

WHAT WILL JUNIOR Doug McDermott do to follow up the only first-team All-America season in Creighton history? How about becoming the first Bluejay to win POY? It’s not as outlandish as you think: He is the nation’s most versatile (63.2 2FG%, 48.6 3FG%, 80 FT%) and e"cient scorer, posting a 123.5 o!ensive rating, the highest of any returning player who was used on at least 28% of possessions. Creighton had the nation’s fifth most e"cient o!ense and advanced to the NCAA tourney’s third round. But it needs to shore up a D that finished 178th in e"ciency for a shot at the Sweet 16.

ARIZONA MEMPHIS CREIGHTONProjected Pac-12 finish: 2nd Projected C-USA finish: 1st Projected MVC finish: 1st


SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to beat the Wildcats defenseDue to the team’s gap-defense philosophy, the Cats will at times overhelp. Perimeter players must be shot-ready for kickout threes. They are active, so be strong with the ball and patient in running your sets. Attack Tarczewski and Jerrett with drag ball screens and in transition; both are di"cult for young post players to adjust to.

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to beat the Tigers defenseJackson, Crawford and Antonio Barton are ultra- aggressive and have a tendency to overrun passing lanes. So use ball fakes and shot fakes and look to back-cut to keep them honest. Due to excellent depth, Pastner will extend his defense. Play with good spacing and read advantage or disadvantage while attacking the press.

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to stop the Bluejays o!enseThe team wants to be in the 90s. So you want to control the tempo, limit the number of possessions and get it out of a rhythm. Make it hard for McDermott to catch in a scoring area and come with early help. Be aggressive on guards Grant Gibbs and Austin Chatman while taking away angles from Gregory Echenique in the post.




Dec. 8 @ Clemson

The Tigers’ No. 27 scoring D will test

Lyons & Co.

Nov. 22 vs. VCU (Bahamas)

Can Tigers avoid upset like last year to Murray State?

Nov. 23 vs. Wisconsin

(Las Vegas)Big Ten win raises seeding in a hurry.

Dec. 15 vs. Florida

UF’s bombers face the Cats’ No. 3 three-point D.

Dec. 15 vs. Louisville

These Cards put up a season-high 95 in the ’11-12 win.

Dec. 1 vs.Saint Joseph’s

The Hawks handed the Jays an early

loss in ’11-12.

Jan. 24 vs.UCLA

Zona has won its last four at home

against the Bruins.

Jan. 19 vs. Harvard

An RPI booster until the Crimson’s

scandal hit.

Feb. 13 @ Northern IowaThe teams split

last season, each a three-point win.


Nick Johnson, G Antonio Barton, G Grant Gibbs, G

Mark Lyons, G Chris Crawford, G Jahenns Manigat, G

Solomon Hill, F Joe Jackson, G Doug McDermott, F

Grant Jerrett, F Adonis Thomas, G/F Ethan Wragge, F

Kaleb Tarczewski, C Tarik Black, F Gregory

Echenique, C130 130 130100 100 100110 110 110120 120 120




14 15 16


Pac-12 avg. starting G C-USA avg. starting G MVC avg. starting GPac-12 avg. starting F/C C-USA avg. starting F/C MVC avg. starting F/C

92 ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012 FROM LEFT: JOHN GRIESHOP/BRUCE SCHWARTZMAN SPORTS; GENE J . PUSKAR/AP IMAGES; ISAAC BREKKEN/AP IMAGES

VETERAN GUARDS PHIL PRESSEY and Michael Dixon Jr. return as the top scorers from a team that finished No. 1 in the country in o!ensive e"ciency, putting up 125.4 points per 100 possessions. And the addition of UConn transfer Alex Oriakhi, a power forward, gives the Tigers a boost on the defensive end. Mizzou struggled to block shots last season (253rd in swat percentage) and allowed opponents to hit 47.9% of twos. Oriakhi won’t be asked to do much on o!ense—Pepperdine transfer Keion Bell (18.9 ppg) can pick up the slack—but his post D will be instrumental in the Tigers’ SEC transition.

SURE, STEVE NASH comparisons are unfair. But if sophomore Canadian PG Kevin Pangos comes close to surpassing his output from last season (47.9 2FG%, 40.1 3FG%, 85.1 FT%), they wont stop any time soon. Pangos’ backcourt mate Gary Bell Jr. shot even better, including 47.7% from three, and senior PF Elias Harris (13.1 ppg, 8.5 rpg) is a double-double threat. Add in Polish seven-footer Przemek Karnowski—a favorite of scouts since the 2010 U17 worlds—and the Zags may be even better than in ’11-12, when they were in the top 34 in o!ensive and defensive e"ciency.

DAVE RICE MASHED the accelerator in his first season at the helm for UNLV. More than 20% of Rebels possessions came in transition, up from 13.5% under Lon Kruger in ’10-11. But with a lengthy front line, Rice might ease o! the gas. Pitt transfer Khem Birch (eligible in December), a 6'9" power forward, and 6'8" frosh Anthony Bennett (No. 7, ESPN 100) bring the promise of versatility to complement MWC POY hopeful Mike Moser (14.0 ppg, 10.5 rpg). To help spread the floor, frosh Katin Reinhardt (No. 47) must live up to his deep-threat rep and help replace UNLV’s Chace Stanback (45.5 3FG%).

MISSOURI GONZAGA UNLVProjected SEC finish: 3rd Projected WCC finish: 1st Projected MWC finish: 1st


SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to stop the Tigers o!enseDon’t help on Laurence Bowers and Oriakhi. The key to containing Mizzou is to control the perimeter players. Stay home on post catches, which will take away long closeouts. Mizzou does a great job of spacing the floor. Keep Dixon and Pressey in front. String out ball screens and stay as long as needed to make them give it up.

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to beat the Zags defensePut Harris, Sam Dower, Karnowski and Kelly Olynyk in ball screens and attack them o! those screens. Limit your live-ball turnovers and dictate your shots. The Zags’ contain philosophy will allow you to run your o!ense (209th in defensive TO% last year). Good execution will result in room-and-rhythm scoring opportunities.

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to beat the Rebels defenseThis is a high-risk, high-reward team in the halfcourt that jumps passing lanes, which creates live-ball turnovers and easy baskets. Basically a West Coast version of Memphis—freaky athletic, great length but at times impatient. You have to play with good spacing and use ball fakes and shot fakes to create scoring chances.




Dec. 28 @UCLA

Stanford and the Bruins are the

Tigers’ early tests.

Dec. 28 vs. Baylor

Pangos and Bears’ Brady Heslip duke it out from deep.

Dec. 9 @ California

The Lobos’ weak nonleague slate could be costly.

Jan. 19 @ Florida

Two of the top three o!enses from last

season face o!.

Jan. 19 @Butler

Zags cruised in Spokane last

season 71-55.

Dec. 29 @North Carolina

Heels look for revenge after last year’s 90-80 loss.

Feb. 23 @ Kentucky

Oriakhi gets an SEC welcome against

Nerlens Noel.

Feb. 28 @BYU

In ’11-12, Zags lost by 10 in Provo; WCC’s new rivalry.

Feb. 16 vs.San Diego StateRebs eked past top MWC rival in Vegas

last season.


Keion Bell, G Gary Bell Jr., G Justin Hawkins, G

Michael Dixon Jr., G Kevin Pangos, G Anthony Marshall, G

Phil Pressey, G David Stockton, G Anthony Bennett, F

Laurence Bowers, F Elias Harris, F Mike Moser, F

Alex Oriakhi, F Sam Dower, C Quintrell Thomas, F130 130 130100 100 100110 110 110120 120 120




17 18 19


SEC avg. starting G WCC avg. starting G MWC avg. starting GSEC avg. starting F/C WCC avg. starting F/C MWC avg. starting F/C

94 ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012 FROM LEFT: CAL SPORT MEDIA/AP IMAGES; DYLAN COULTER; CAL SPORT MEDIA/AP IMAGES

TWO SEASONS AGO, Jamaal Franklin did the unthink-able: He ignored his coach and thrived because of it. Steve Fisher wanted the überathlete from LA to redshirt; Franklin opted not to. He played only 8.1 minutes per game but laid the groundwork for his MWC POY season in 2011-12. The 6'5" Franklin’s work in the lane is essential to SDSU’s success—Franklin averaged 19.2 ppg and 9.4 rpg in MWC play—but just as important is senior Chase Tapley’s ability to stretch the floor (15.8 ppg, 43.3 3FG%). Between the two of them, Fisher has one of the best backcourts in the country.

ISAIAH AUSTIN, STEP right up! In what has become a yearly occurrence (Perry Jones III, Quincy Miller), Scott Drew signed another lanky hybrid big man. Austin (No. 3, ESPN 100) is the highest-ranked player among that trio, and now that Jones and Miller are in the NBA, the seven-footer will be needed to replace some of their scoring, along with Quincy Acy’s rebounding. Austin should be a great half-court partner for Pierre Jackson, who finished in the top 20 in assist rate (37.3% of possessions) last season. Plus, he’ll see limited double-teams thanks to deadeye Canadian Brady Heslip (45.5 3FG%).

THE IRISH HAVE missed only one NCAA tourney in the past six years. And with all five starters back from last season, including 6'9" senior Jack Cooley, another tourney berth is expected in South Bend. Cooley’s inside play—and his 1.28 points per possession—is reminiscent of Luke Harangody’s banging. And the backcourt—starring Jerian Grant (12.3 ppg, 5 apg) and Eric Atkins (12.1 ppg, 4.1 apg)—is the most underrated in the Big East. Mike Brey’s teams don’t commit many turnovers (top 30 in TO% since ’03), which helps o!set a poor o!ensive rebounding rate that ranked 15th in the Big East.

SAN DIEGO STATE BAYLOR NOTRE DAMEProjected MWC finish: 2nd Projected Big 12 finish: 2nd Projected Big East finish: 3rd


SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to stop the Aztecs o!enseKeep the team’s guards in front. Tapley is great at catch-and-shoot threes. He spreads out the D, which creates driving lanes for Franklin. Help early on Franklin without fouling; he shot six FTs per game last year. Due to an attacking mindset, he is at times an unwilling passer. Last year, he had 47 assists and 95 turnovers.

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to stop the Bears o!enseThe game starts with the guards. To compete with Baylor, you must contain Jackson and take away Heslip’s room-and-rhythm threes. If you allow Jackson to get to the rim, it gives Baylor’s athletes a chance on the boards. So stay in front and go under all ball screens. Be physical with Austin and cut Ricardo Gathers o! the glass.

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to beat the Irish defenseAttack the defense o! the dribble; it struggles with defending straight-line drives. Put Cooley and Garrick Sherman in ball screens and force the posts to run the floor. Be prepared for Brey to extend the 2-3 zone and give multiple defensive looks. Attack the o!ensive glass against the zone.




Nov. 9 vs. Syracuse

(U.S.S. Midway)An early statement

game for SDSU.

Dec. 1 @ Kentucky

Bears can only gain in this Elite Eight

rematch.

Nov. 29 vs. Kentucky

No. 1 Cuse lost at ND in ’11-12. UK

had better beware.

Dec. 1 vs. UCLA (Anaheim)

The first matchup between these

teams since 1991.

Dec. 28 @ Gonzaga

Zags’ only home loss was to Michigan St.

in 2011-12.

Jan. 7 @ Cincinnati

The Irish’s first true road trip comes 14 games into season.

Feb. 26 @ New Mexico

SDSU has won five of its past seven in

Albuquerque.

March 9 vs. Kansas

Drew is 2–10 against KU in nine seasons at Baylor.

Feb. 4 @ Syracuse

Brey has won only once in the Carrier

Dome since ’04.


Jamaal Franklin, G Brady Heslip, G Eric Atkins, G

James Rahon, G Pierre Jackson, G Jerian Grant, G

Chase Tapley, G Ricardo Gathers, F Scott Martin, G

Xavier Thames, G Cory Jefferson, F Pat Connaughton, G/F

Winston Shepard, F Isaiah Austin, C Jack Cooley, F130 130 130100 100 100110 110 110120 120 120




20 21 22


MWC avg. starting G Big 12 avg. starting G Big East avg. starting GMWC avg. starting F/C Big 12 avg. starting F/C Big East avg. starting F/C

96 ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012 FROM LEFT: MATT YORK/AP IMAGES; KEVIN C. COX/GETTY IMAGES; SCOTT ROVAK/US PRESSWIRE

BO RYAN IS full of folksy sayings, and one of his gems is: “I underpromise and overdeliver.” No one embodied that mantra more than former PG Jordan Taylor, he of the understated game and outrageous assist-to-turnover ratio. A collective will try to replace Taylor’s production. Junior Josh Gasser (45.2 3FG% last season) takes the PG spot, with scoring support from Jared Berggren (10.5 ppg) and Ryan Evans (11 ppg). But 6'7" freshman Sam Dekker (No. 17, ESPN 100) will draw the most eyeballs early. And it will be Ryan’s job to see that Dekker delivers on all of his promise.

WHEN YOU CAN’T shoot, it’s usually hard to win. But in coach Mick Cronin’s six years, Cincy has never ranked above 168th in FG%—and yet it has won 26 games in consecutive seasons. What gives? Cronin’s players—led this season by Sean Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright—don’t get outworked on the glass (top 50 in o!ensive rebound percentage since 2009), don’t make costly mistakes (15th in D1 in TO% last season) and don’t give up freebies (ninth in FT attempts per FG attempt). Of course, making a few more shots wouldn’t hurt their cause come March.

JUST WHEN IT seemed as if Rick Majerus had Saint Louis primed for a program-defining season, heart problems forced him to sit out the season. Now interim head coach Jim Crews leads the Billikens down the road Majerus has been building since 2007-08. Four starters are back—including leading scorers Kwamain Mitchell (12.4 ppg) and Cody Ellis (10.1 ppg)—after the program’s first tourney win since 1998. Mitchell will miss at least November with a broken foot, giving Dwayne Evans a chance to improve his production (7.9 ppg). At only 6'5", Evans was 25th nationally in defensive rebound percentage.

WISCONSIN CINCINNATI SAINT LOUISProjected Big Ten finish: 5th Projected Big East finish: 4th Projected A-10 finish: 1st


SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to stop the Badgers o!enseThe Badgers aren’t going to beat themselves—only nine TOs per game last season. Discipline is the key to being successful against Ryan’s swing o!ense. All five players have to be prepared to defend all five positions. You must finish each possession with a solid blockout, because Mike Bruesewitz and Berggren are active running to the glass.

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to beat the Bearcats defenseKilpatrick, Wright and JaQuon Parker make up one of the country’s best defensive backcourts. So scoring easy baskets against the Cats in transition is a must. Put Justin Jackson in ball screens and pull him from the rim. He averaged almost two blocks last season, which enabled guards to ramp up pressure on the perimeter.

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLANHow to beat the Billikens defenseLook to attack in transition before the team sets up its half-court D. Make Rob Loe and Ellis run the floor. With Mitchell out early, attack the Billikens’ perimeter players o! the dribble. Good ball movement, player movement and shot selection are imperative. Exploit their switches, especially by attacking their bigs.




Nov. 14 @ Florida

UF’s prolific o!ense faces the Badgers’ tough D.

Dec. 19 vs. Xavier

Cooler heads and hotter shooters

will prevail.

Nov. 28 @ Washington

SLU’s nonleague games won’t help the tourney seed.

Dec. 8 @ Marquette

The road team has won this game the

past two years.

Dec. 27 vs. New Mexico

End of a mediocre nonconference

slate.

Jan. 10 vs. MassachusettsLast year’s loss to UMass preceded six straight W’s.

Jan. 15 @ Indiana

UW held Cody Zeller to 2 of 7 in regular season.

Jan. 21 @ Syracuse

Cronin has beaten Jim Boeheim twice

in seven tries.

Feb. 22 @Butler

Great matchup between two of the

best D’s in D1.


Ben Brust, G JaQuon Parker, G Mike McCall Jr., G

Josh Gasser, G Cashmere Wright, G Kwamain Mitchell, G

Ryan Evans, G/F Sean Kilpatrick, G/F Cody Ellis, F

Mike Bruesewitz, F Justin Jackson, F Dwayne Evans, F

Jared Berggren, F/C David Nyarsuk, C Rob Loe, F130 130 130100 100 100110 110 110120 120 120




23 24 25


Big Ten avg. starting G Big East avg. starting G A-10 avg. starting GBig Ten avg. starting F/C Big East avg. starting F/C A-10 avg. starting F/C

11/12/2012 ESPN The Magazine 9998 ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012

53 OklahomaBig 12: 7th 112.2 97.3

54 IllinoisBig Ten: 7th 108.7 94.4

55 West VirginiaBig 12: 8th 107.1 93.3

56 MississippiSEC: 7th 109.5 95.9

57 WyomingMWC: 4th 101.3 89.1

58 VillanovaBig East: 9th 106.9 94.2

59 BYUWCC: 3rd 104.8 92.4

6! Robert MorrisNEC: 1st 109.8 97.0

61 BucknellPatriot: 1st 110.5 97.8

62 VirginiaACC: 6th 103.5 91.8

63 DrexelCAA: 1st 105.9 94.0

64 AkronMAC: 2nd 108.1 96.2

65 IowaBig Ten: 8th 110.8 98.6

66 ColoradoPac-12: 6th 106.1 94.6

67 WashingtonPac-12: 7th 106.8 95.6

68 Virginia TechACC: 7th 107.4 96.3

69 Seton HallBig East: 10th 102.8 92.2

7! Colorado StateMWC: 5th 110.3 99.1

71 South FloridaBig East: 11th 103.8 93.4

72 LSUSEC: 8th 103.9 93.4

73 PurdueBig Ten: 9th 103.3 93.1

74 BelmontOVC: 2nd 110.0 99.6

75 MassachusettsA-10: 6th 106.2 96.2

76 St. John’sBig East: 12th 107.2 97.1

77 South Dakota StateSummit: 1st 112.9 102.2

78 Boise StateMWC: 6th 110.7 100.6

79 LehighPatriot: 2nd 108.5 98.7

8! College of CharlestonSouthern: 2nd 105.1 95.9

81 Washington StatePac-12: 8th 108.1 98.7

82 Central FloridaC-USA: 2nd 107.2 98.0

83 Oregon StatePac-12: 9th 108.4 99.1

84 ManhattanMAAC: 1st 105.8 96.9

85 South CarolinaSEC: 9th 105.8 96.8

86 Fresno StateMWC: 7th 107.5 98.4

87 DetroitHorizon: 1st 109.9 100.6

88 Penn StateBig Ten: 10th 104.1 95.3

89 VermontAmerica East: 1st 104.0 95.3

9! ClemsonACC: 8th 101.9 93.5

91 North Dakota StateSummit: 2nd 110.5 101.3

92 Illinois StateMVC: 3rd 105.9 97.4

93 North TexasSun Belt: 1st 105.2 96.8

94 DaytonA-10: 7th 107.4 98.9

95 PrincetonIvy: 1st 104.1 95.9

96 East CarolinaC-USA: 3rd 109.0 100.5

97 RichmondA-10: 8th 110.3 101.8

98 Middle TennesseeSun Belt: 2nd 105.6 97.8

99 OregonPac-12: 10th 107.0 99.3

1!! MarshallC-USA: 4th 104.7 97.4

1!1 AuburnSEC: 10th 104.3 97.1

1!2 UTEPC-USA: 5th 101.7 94.7

1!3 NorthwesternBig Ten: 11th 108.4 101.0

1!4 WagnerNEC: 2nd 101.8 94.9

1!5 Long Beach StateBig West: 1st 105.3 98.5

1!6 DePaulBig East: 13th 111.1 103.9

1!7 ValparaisoHorizon: 2nd 106.0 99.3

1!8 ConnecticutBig East: 14th 103.4 97.0

1!9 Utah StateWAC: 1st 106.7 100.1

11! Tennessee StateOVC: 3rd 104.4 98.2

111 MarylandACC: 9th 104.5 98.3

112 Texas A&MSEC: 11th 101.7 95.7

113 South Carolina UpstateAtlantic Sun: 1st 103.7 97.7

114 NevadaMWC: 8th 106.5 100.3

115 Green BayHorizon: 3rd 105.0 99.2

116 GeorgiaSEC: 12th 101.1 95.7

117 XavierA-10: 9th 102.1 96.6

118 La SalleA-10: 10th 105.3 99.8

119 MercerAtlantic Sun: 2nd 105.0 99.6

12! Old DominionCAA: 2nd 100.6 95.5

121 St. BonaventureA-10: 11th 106.2 100.9

122 ProvidenceBig East: 15th 107.4 102.2

123 Florida Gulf CoastAtlantic Sun: 3rd 108.1 103.0

124 Georgia StateCAA: 3rd 99.4 95.1

125 NortheasternCAA: 4th 105.3 101.2

126 TulaneC-USA: 6th 102.8 98.9

127 Wichita StateMVC: 4th 99.3 95.9

128 Georgia TechACC: 10th 100.5 97.2

129 EvansvilleMVC: 5th 105.2 102.0

13! Arizona StatePac-12: 11th 103.7 100.7

131 Texas TechBig 12: 9th 103.5 100.4

132 ColumbiaIvy: 2nd 104.6 101.6

133 IonaMAAC: 2nd 105.4 102.5

134 South AlabamaSun Belt: 3rd 104.8 102.1

135 Indiana StateMVC: 6th 99.1 96.7

136 St. Francis (N.Y.)NEC: 3rd 101.5 99.1

137 DelawareCAA: 5th 104.9 102.4

138 Southern IllinoisMVC: 7th 101.5 99.2

139 George MasonCAA: 6th 98.5 96.4

14! MontanaBig Sky: 1st 102.2 100.1

141 Cleveland StateHorizon: 4th 99.5 97.6

142 IdahoWAC: 2nd 103.9 102.2

143 Air ForceMWC: 9th 102.3 101.2

144 LIU BrooklynNEC: 4th 107.2 106.0

145 Oral RobertsSouthland: 1st 102.9 102.0

146 Santa ClaraWCC: 4th 109.9 108.9

147 QuinnipiacNEC: 5th 102.3 101.5

148 George WashingtonA-10: 12th 101.2 100.5

149 James MadisonCAA: 7th 104.6 104.1

15! HawaiiBig West: 2nd 102.7 102.4

151 NebraskaBig Ten: 12th 101.1 100.8

152 New Mexico StateWAC: 3rd 98.7 98.6

153 Texas ArlingtonWAC: 4th 99.3 99.1

154 Western KentuckySun Belt: 4th 96.8 96.7

155 HarvardIvy: 3rd 101.0 100.9

156 NiagaraMAAC: 3rd 105.1 105.0

157 FairfieldMAAC: 4th 94.8 94.8

158 DenverWAC: 5th 100.1 100.3

159 Louisiana TechWAC: 6th 100.0 100.2

16! San DiegoWCC: 5th 100.4 100.6

161 Kent StateMAC: 3rd 101.6 101.9

162 UtahPac-12: 12th 103.1 103.4

163 UNC-WilmingtonCAA: 8th 101.9 102.3

164 Southern MissC-USA: 7th 100.5 101.0

165 PortlandWCC: 6th 103.2 103.9

166 Youngstown StateHorizon: 5th 102.9 103.6

167 Wake ForestACC: 11th 106.6 107.4

168 DrakeMVC: 8th 99.3 100.1

169 Loyola (Md.)MAAC: 5th 101.7 102.7

17! Stephen F. AustinSouthland: 2nd 95.6 96.7

171 Boston CollegeACC: 12th 100.5 102.0

172 Missouri StateMVC: 9th 97.3 98.8

173 HoustonC-USA: 8th 103.0 104.6

174 SMUC-USA: 9th 95.9 97.5

175 Jacksonville StateOVC: 4th 100.5 102.3

176 Sacred HeartNEC: 6th 103.9 105.8

177 ToledoMAC: 4th 101.6 103.5

178 Bu!aloMAC: 5th 97.6 99.5

179 Weber StateBig Sky: 2nd 102.6 104.7

18! PacificBig West: 3rd 101.8 104.0

181 VanderbiltSEC: 13th 94.2 96.4

182 UC IrvineBig West: 4th 99.8 102.2

183 Arkansas StateSun Belt: 5th 99.3 101.9

184 Texas SouthernSWAC: 1st 99.6 102.3

185 ElonSouthern: 3rd 100.6 103.3

186 StetsonAtlantic Sun: 4th 102.2 105.2

187 Northern ColoradoBig Sky: 3rd 105.1 108.4

188 Morehead StateOVC: 5th 95.1 98.2

189 TCUBig 12: 10th 97.2 100.4

19! Cal PolyBig West: 5th 100.8 104.1

191 UABC-USA: 10th 98.1 101.4

192 Louisiana LafayetteSun Belt: 6th 94.6 97.9

193 Florida AtlanticSun Belt: 7th 102.0 105.6

194 Bowling GreenMAC: 6th 97.8 101.5

195 North DakotaBig Sky: 4th 98.2 101.9

196 CornellIvy: 4th 95.6 99.3

197 Savannah StateMEAC: 1st 93.6 97.2

198 Western IllinoisSummit: 3rd 95.8 99.5

199 MaristMAAC: 6th 99.2 103.2

2!! Loyola MarymountWCC: 7th 96.9 101.0

2!1 MilwaukeeHorizon: 6th 96.0 100.1

2!2 HofstraCAA: 9th 98.5 102.8

2!3 Loyola ChicagoHorizon: 7th 99.3 103.7

2!4 North FloridaAtlantic Sun: 5th 99.9 104.4

2!5 Cal State FullertonBig West: 6th 102.3 107.5

2!6 BradleyMVC: 10th 96.3 101.2

2!7 AmericanPatriot: 3rd 97.1 102.1

2!8 DuquesneA-10: 13th 96.9 102.0

2!9 Wright StateHorizon: 8th 93.3 98.5

21! UNC-AshevilleBig South: 1st 99.6 105.2

211 SE Missouri StateOVC: 6th 102.8 108.6

212 CanisiusMAAC: 7th 104.3 110.5

213 AlbanyAmerica East: 2nd 101.4 107.7

214 SeattleWAC: 7th 96.4 102.4

215 Arkansas Little RockSun Belt: 8th 93.0 98.9

216 OaklandSummit: 4th 102.8 109.4

217 Gardner-WebbBig South: 2nd 95.3 101.7

218 Western MichiganMAC: 7th 97.2 103.9

219 Stony BrookAmerica East: 3rd 94.1 100.7

22! ArmyPatriot: 4th 95.9 102.7

221 Southern UtahBig Sky: 5th 97.0 104.0

222 UC DavisBig West: 7th 104.2 111.9

223 FordhamA-10: 14th 98.9 106.3

224 Florida InternationalSun Belt: 9th 94.0 101.1

225 IPFWSummit: 5th 98.5 106.0

226 Mississippi StateSEC: 14th 92.3 99.5

227 Texas StateWAC: 8th 98.3 106.2

228 UC Santa BarbaraBig West: 8th 94.7 102.4

229 CharlotteA-10: 15th 90.0 97.5

23! Coastal CarolinaBig South: 3rd 97.4 105.5

231 Texas San AntonioWAC: 9th 96.5 104.8

232 UNC-GreensboroSouthern: 4th 97.1 105.5

233 LipscombAtlantic Sun: 6th 97.6 106.0

234 Miami (Ohio)MAC: 8th 95.0 103.2

235 Ball StateMAC: 9th 93.9 102.1

236 Delaware StateMEAC: 2nd 100.1 108.9

237 William & MaryCAA: 10th 97.9 106.5

238 San Jose StateWAC: 10th 97.2 105.8

239 Liberty Big South: 4th 97.8 106.5

24! East Tennessee StateAtlantic Sun: 7th 93.5 101.9

241 SienaMAAC: 8th 95.1 103.7

242 Cal State BakersfieldIndependent: 1st 99.6 108.6

243 Mount St. Mary’sNEC: 7th 95.9 104.8

244 Eastern KentuckyOVC: 7th 99.8 109.3

245 Utah ValleyGreat West: 1st 95.5 104.5

246 Sam Houston StateSouthland: 3rd 92.0 100.9

247 ChattanoogaSouthern: 5th 95.8 105.1

248 Eastern MichiganMAC: 10th 89.0 97.7

249 SE LouisianaSouthland: 4th 92.6 102.0

25! CampbellBig South: 5th 98.4 108.4

251 YaleIvy: 5th 94.8 104.5

252 Charleston SouthernBig South: 6th 98.9 109.2

253 VMIBig South: 7th 101.5 112.1

254 Rhode IslandA-10: 16th 97.4 107.7

255 MaineAmerica East: 4th 94.1 104.0

256 Montana StateBig Sky: 6th 98.3 108.6

257 UMKCSummit: 6th 95.9 106.0

258 Cal State NorthridgeBig West: 9th 97.6 108.2

259 Western CarolinaSouthern: 6th 94.8 105.1

26! FurmanSouthern: 7th 93.5 103.8

261 JacksonvilleAtlantic Sun: 8th 94.8 105.3

262 RiderMAAC: 9th 96.7 107.5

263 Georgia Southern Southern: 8th 93.5 104.0

264 Tennessee TechOVC: 8th 96.6 107.5

265 Morgan StateMEAC: 3rd 93.4 104.2

266 Austin PeayOVC: 9th 96.0 107.3

267 IUPUISummit: 7th 99.4 111.2

268 DartmouthIvy: 6th 91.7 102.6

269 Wo!ordSouthern: 9th 94.2 105.5

27! North Carolina A&TMEAC: 4th 93.4 104.7

271 Bethune-CookmanMEAC: 5th 99.8 111.9

272 Illinois ChicagoHorizon: 9th 95.3 107.0

273 Boston UniversityAmerica East: 5th 89.5 100.5

274 TulsaC-USA: 11th 90.0 101.0

275 San FranciscoWCC: 8th 93.3 104.8

276 Jackson StateSWAC: 2nd 94.2 106.1

277 Northwestern StateSouthland: 5th 93.4 105.3

278 RiceC-USA: 12th 92.3 104.1

279 BrownIvy: 7th 97.6 110.1

28! South DakotaSummit: 8th 98.5 111.4

281 New HampshireAmerica East: 6th 91.5 103.7

282 MonmouthNEC: 8th 93.8 106.3

283 Eastern WashingtonBig Sky: 7th 96.7 109.6

284 Holy CrossPatriot: 5th 92.8 105.3

285 PennsylvaniaIvy: 8th 89.7 102.0

286 Saint Peter’sMAAC: 10th 89.3 101.5

287 TroySun Belt: 10th 97.3 110.6

288 McNeese StateSouthland: 6th 93.7 106.6

289 Sacramento StateBig Sky: 8th 95.3 109.2

29! UMBCAmerica East: 7th 96.4 110.7

291 Central ConnecticutNEC: 9th 91.5 105.2

292 The CitadelSouthern: 10th 95.7 110.1

293 UC RiversideBig West: 10th 89.7 103.5

294 Texas A&M Corpus ChristiSouthland: 7th 89.5 103.4

295 Tennessee MartinOVC: 10th 96.4 111.4

296 HartfordAmerica East: 8th 90.4 104.8

297 PepperdineWCC: 9th 89.7 104.1

298 North Carolina CentralMEAC: 6th 89.7 104.3

299 Idaho StateBig Sky: 9th 94.9 110.8

3!! LafayettePatriot: 6th 95.4 111.6

3!1 NavyPatriot: 7th 93.0 108.9

3!2 SamfordSouthern: 11th 96.7 113.3

3!3 LamarSouthland: 8th 85.2 100.0

3!4 HowardMEAC: 7th 90.3 106.5

3!5 Nebraska OmahaSummit: 9th 98.7 116.4

3!6 SouthernSWAC: 3rd 91.5 108.2

3!7 BryantNEC: 10th 96.7 114.5

3!8 Appalachian StateSouthern: 12th 91.9 108.7

3!9 RadfordBig South: 8th 87.8 104.1

31! Houston BaptistGreat West: 2nd 94.3 112.0

311 Prairie View A&MSWAC: 4th 87.5 104.0

312 HamptonMEAC: 8th 86.6 102.9

313 Portland StateBig Sky: 10th 96.2 114.5

314 PresbyterianBig South: 9th 90.8 108.7

315 Nicholls StateSouthland: 9th 96.1 115.2

316 Northern ArizonaBig Sky: 11th 93.9 113.1

317 BinghamtonAmerica East: 9th 94.3 113.6

318 WinthropBig South: 10th 87.0 104.9

319 High PointBig South: 11th 91.2 109.9

32! Texas Pan AmericanGreat West: 3rd 90.1 108.9

321 Northern IllinoisMAC: 11th 88.1 106.7

322 NJITGreat West: 4th 89.4 108.3

323 Florida A&MMEAC: 9th 92.3 112.0

324 Central MichiganMAC: 12th 89.1 108.3

325 SIU-EdwardsvilleOVC: 11th 89.9 109.3

326 Central ArkansasSouthland: 10th 90.6 110.8

327 Norfolk StateMEAC: 10th 87.5 107.1

328 Kennesaw StateAtlantic Sun: 9th 91.7 112.7

329 Louisiana MonroeSun Belt: 11th 93.2 114.6

33! Saint Francis (Pa.)NEC: 11th 88.9 109.9

331 Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC: 11th 87.4 108.5

332 Fairleigh DickinsonNEC: 12th 87.9 109.4

333 ColgatePatriot: 8th 92.5 115.2

334 Arkansas Pine Blu!SWAC: 5th 87.1 108.6

335 Alcorn StateSWAC: 6th 86.4 107.8

336 Alabama StateSWAC: 7th 83.9 105.5

337 TowsonCAA: 11th 85.2 107.5

338 South Carolina StateMEAC: 12th 88.4 113.3

339 Chicago StateGreat West: 5th 85.9 111.0

34! Alabama A&MSWAC: 8th 87.5 113.6

341 Mississippi Valley StateSWAC: 9th 82.0 108.0

342 LongwoodBig South: 12th 90.5 119.3

343 Eastern IllinoisOVC: 12th 86.2 114.3

344 Coppin StateMEAC: 13th 84.4 112.8

345 GramblingSWAC: 10th 78.4 118.7

THE NEXT 320There’s nothing like the feeling of your team being ranked, right? The Mag enlisted economist and RealGM.com contributor Dan Hanner to arrange all the teams outside our top 25 from the least worst to, well, Grambling. Hanner projected tempo-free stats for every player, using college stats and recruiting evaluations while also accounting for coaching. The rankings flowed from the strength of each team’s projected lineup. The model used to construct our list, as well as more player projections, can be found in the 2012-13 edition of College Basketball Prospectus. Because there’s nothing like the feeling of being right either.

26 New MexicoMWC: 3rd 112.6 91.7

27 TennesseeSEC: 4th 111.8 91.4

28 PittsburghBig East: 5th 117.4 96.1

29 TexasBig 12: 3rd 112.5 92.2

3! MarquetteBig East: 6th 111.4 91.5

31 MinnesotaBig Ten: 6th 111.9 92.6

32 GeorgetownBig East: 7th 109.4 90.9

33 AlabamaSEC: 5th 108.0 89.9

34 Kansas StateBig 12: 4th 108.6 90.4

35 Iowa StateBig 12: 5th 113.5 94.5

36 StanfordPac-12: 3rd 111.4 92.8

37 Miami (Fla.)ACC: 4th 113.6 94.7

38 ArkansasSEC: 6th 116.1 97.1

39 ButlerA-10: 2nd 109.5 91.7

4! Saint Joseph’sA-10: 3rd 113.9 95.5

41 Florida StateACC: 5th 110.3 92.6

42 TempleA-10: 4th 111.6 94.1

43 CaliforniaPac-12: 4th 110.7 93.7

44 OhioMAC: 1st 108.2 92.2

45 RutgersBig East: 8th 109.9 93.9

46 USCPac-12: 5th 105.6 90.3

47 Northern IowaMVC: 2nd 112.3 96.1

48 Oklahoma StateBig 12: 6th 109.2 93.9

49 VCUA-10: 5th 106.3 91.7

5! Murray StateOVC: 1st 107.8 93.8

51 Saint Mary’sWCC: 2nd 113.2 98.1

52 DavidsonSouthern: 1st 112.5 97.4

For more on our

preseason Power Rankings, go to ESPN.com and ESPN Insider.

Projected o!ensive e"ciency Projected defensive

e"ciency

26 New MexicoMWC: 3rd 112.6 91.7

Team rank

Projected conference finish

Team name

* New Orleans and Northern Kentucky not ranked because neither is considered a full D1 member this season

*

Documents

2012 College Basketball Team Previews