2012 01 10 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

8/3/2019 2012 01 10 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel SwitzerlandTel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

MA

S-TERMMULTI-DAY

L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/POSITION

ENTRYLEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD Sell Stop 3 1.2680 1.2530/1.2150/1.1877 1. 2850

GBP/USD Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY Await New Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.

USD/CHF Sell strategy removed. Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup above 1.0425.

AUD/USD Sell Stop 3 1.0145 1.0040/0.9860/0.9660 1.0270

GBP/JPY Long exited at 118.90.

EUR/JPY Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8300 0.8222/0.8142/0.8068 0.8378

EUR/CHF SHORT 3 1.2130 1.2010/1.1526/1.1002 1.2250

GOLD Sell Stop 3 1590 1520/1460/1300 1640

SILVER SHORT 2 34.1300 26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 30.0000

DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT10 January, 2012

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entrypoint for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more pr ofit. All orders are valid until the next report ispublished, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
http://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/http://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/


2/15

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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 10 January, 2012

www.migbank.com

Temporary bullish unwinding targets 1.2870.

EUR/USD is temporarily unwinding from oversold conditions, having recently

broken under the major 2011 low and reaching a fresh low for the new-year at

1.2666.

The major trend remains bearish, holding within a declining channel range.

While price activity holds here, we prefer to sell into forthcoming rallies, which

are likely to be driven by temporary short covering.

Watch for near-term resistance to come in at 1.2820/70, then 1.2920 and

1.3000/77 (psychological/04 th Jan bearish candle pattern high). Only a sustained

break above here will offer a stronger recovery into 1.3197 (see chart insert).

Meanwhile, the bears need to push back beneath this years new low at 1.2666 to

resume the major downtrend into 1.2600-1.2530 (confluence target).

Inversely, the USD Index has triggered a bearish dark cloud signal having

carved out a 12-month high (see chart).

The move coincided with old resistance at 81.31/44 (Nov 2010/Jan 2011 peaks)

and is likely to trigger further unwinding from overbought conditions into

80.00/79.50 (psychological/pivot level). Expect this level to help re-launch the

greenbacks recovery (which was already up 10%), which is part of our bullish

cycle strategy over the multi-month horizon.

Special Report: EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Target s 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO

Webinar: Why the US dollar is like ly to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.

Media Interview : Bloomberg

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Sell Stop 3: 1.2680, Obj: 1.2530/1.2150/1.1877, Stop: 1.2850

EUR/ USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD Index daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

REVERSALFROM 2 YEAR

UPTREND

200-DMA (1.3957)

BERMUDATRIANGLE

EUR/USD (Daily)

BREAKOUTZONE

(1.4000) BEARISHCHANNEL

1.26-1.2530TARGET

HISTORYREPEATS

R1 (1.3077)

BEARISH 3 CROW

CANDLE PATTERN

913

US DOLLAR INDEX

200-DMA(76.26)

DEMARK BUY SIGNALS

BREAKOUT ZONE

EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

12 MONTHHIGH

KEYSUPPORT

(79.50)

MAJOR HIGHS
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf


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Hourly range remains intact for now.

GBP/USD is dominated by the recent failure to break out of a tight

rangebound hourly structure between 1.5780 and 1.5362.

Although we perceive Sterling as a relative safe haven and also view

the large devaluation of 2008 as being sufficient, there is still scope for a

minor downside bias to emerge, back towards the long-term trend-line

support, currently near 1.5150.

With this in mind we could trade the short-term range or await a fall to

long-term trend-line support. Given the general US Dollar positive

environment, it is deemed better to wait for higher levels to attempt

possible short exposure.

Also, given the negative bias in EUR/GBP, it is anticipated that any

weakness in GBP/USD will be less dynamic than US Dollar strength

seen elsewhere.


Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


4/15

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Bears break from multi-day range extends the retracement (PIR).

USD/JPY has weakened sharply beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level) , as price broke

from a multi-day trading range (see hourly chart below).

Confirmation beneath 77.25 (pivot level) now helps trigger a third price

retracement, that we had been expecting, back to pre-intervention levels and

potentially even a new post world war record low beneath 75.35.

Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying

pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first to call

the market bottom, within the end of this multi-year contracting pattern.

This may first inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike throughpsychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move would

help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders, which wouldcreate healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.

The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a major

long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection points to

trigger over the next few weeks, offering a sustained move above our upside

trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal VIDEO

Webinar: USD/JPYs Long -Term Structural Change

Media Interviews: CNBC Squawk Box & Bloomberg Countdown (Reports: CNBC / Bloomberg)


Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.


USD/JPY

USD/JPY 120 min chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

QUAKESHOCK!

POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PI R I)

G7MOVEHIGH

PIR II

POSTBOJ

MOVE (II)HIGH

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEAD

OF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35 )

POSTBOJ

MOVE (III)PIR III

MULTI-YEARPATTERN

ANTICIPATESBREAKOUT (85-80)

USD/JPY (120 MIN)POSTBOJMOVE (III)

KEY PIVOT LEVEL (77.25) TRIGGERSPOST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT

DEMARK SELL SIGNAL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDHE6uEqm6whttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDHE6uEqm6whttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://www.bloomberg.com/video/83310036/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/83310036/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/83310036/http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.bloomberg.com/video/83310036/http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDHE6uEqm6w


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Return towards the 200 DMA favoured medium-term.

0.9500, our proposed first target has been met, thus we have removed

our prior sell recommendation at 0.9610.

USD/CHF has tested close to the 0.9600 region where it was

anticipated a degree of supply may manifest. In any case the daily

structure present since 0.8568 suggests that the rising phase seen

since 0.7071 is reaching completion.

In the absence of the SNB, it is anticipated that a return to the 200 day

moving average, currently at 0.8708 would be possible, ahead of a

further phase higher.

However, USD/CHF continues to be a tied to the fate of EUR/CHF and

thus the ability of the SNB to successfully maintain its floor in EUR/CHF

at 1.2000. Fresh highs are still anticipated in 10 year Italian sovereign

yields, maintaining downside pressure on USD/CHF.

10 year yields in Spain and Italy are currently trading at 5.563% and

7.140% versus 6.478% and 7.355%, before the US Dollar based swap

agreement. These same yields were trading at 5.665% and 7.110%

respectively yesterday.


Sell strategy removed. Await fresh signal with a bias to shorts.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


USD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


6/15

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Weakening from pattern ceiling.

USD/CAD is weakening from its triangle pattern ceiling, which coincided with

an intraday DeMark exhaustion signal and daily bearish evening star candle

pattern (see hourly/daily charts).

However, the chart structure remains positive and so we prefer to wait for a

strong directional confirmation above 1.0425 before initiating a buy trade setup.

Until then, intraday traders might find a fast hit and run short trad e opportunity

back into key support at 1.0080 (see hourly chart).

Meanwhile, the bulls need to push back above 1.0425 and 1.0524 (25 Nov swing

high), in order to trigger a larger breakout from the rates m ulti-month triangle

pattern.

In terms of the big picture, a directional confirmation above 1.0680 is still needed

to unlock the recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout

from the rates ending triangle pattern, whi ch was part of a major Elliott wave

cycle (see top chart insert).

EUR/CAD, which tends to share a positive correlation with EUR/USD, is

temporarily unwinding from oversold conditions. However, the previous

structural breach under the rates multi -month distribution pattern continues tofavour further downside pressure into 1.2760 (10 th Jan 2010).


Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup above 1.0425.


USD/CAD

USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD 120min chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD (Daily)

200-DMA(0.9918)

BULLISHTRIANGLEPATTERN

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680

OPENS LARGERRECOVERY

USD/CAD (WEEKLY)

USD/CAD (120 MIN)

KEY SUPPORT (1.0080)

DEMARK SELL SIGNALS

DEMARK SELL SIGNAL

BEARISH (DAILY)EVENING STAR PATTERN


7/15

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Capped under 200-day average (1.0405).

AUD/USD remains capped under its 200-day moving average which has been

holding steady around 1.0405 for over 3 months.

While the recent daily bearish evening star pattern continues to weigh beneath

resistance at 1.0387, we remain watchful for short opportunities.

Our cycle analysis remains bearish and favours downside pressure back into

parity, then 0.9862 (15 th Dec low) and 0.9664/20 (23 rd Nov low).

Keep in mind that such a move would signal a break from the multi-month

distribution pattern and the rates 3 year uptrend (see chart insert).

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar has weakened sharply against its neighboring New

Zealand counterpart. Near-term price activity is breaking from a multi-month

trading range and is testing its 200-day MA which is currently trading at 1.2970.Expect further setbacks over the multi-day/week horizon into support at 1.2834

and 1.2319.

The Aussie dollar remains steady against the Japanese yen, while still holding

within its neutral contracting trading range. Watch for key support at 76.98 to

unlock further downside into 74.81.


Sell Stop 3: 1.0145, Objs: 1.0040/0.9860/0.9660, Stop: 1.0270

AUD/USD


AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD 120 min chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

KEY ZONE(1.0000)

AUD/USD(Daily) DEMARK

SELL SIGNALS

200-DMA(1.0405)

AUD/USD(WEEKLY)

3 YEARUPTREND

UNDERTHREATBELOW

0.9620

31.82%(0.9172)

50%(0.8609)

61.8%(0.8046)

AUD/USD (120 MIN)DEMARK

SELL SIGNAL

RANGE BREAKOUT

PIVOT LEVEL (1.0220)

BEARISH (DAILY)EVENING STAR PATTERN

R1 (1.0387)

S1 (1.0146)


8/15

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Towards 116.84 now favoured.

GBP/JPY saw a clear break under the 119.00 low on Friday ending

hopes of a continuation of the recovery structure from this same level.

This failure to hold over 119.00 now suggests a re-test of the regionclose to 116.84. Strong support is anticipated close to this level, should

weakness persist.

In a similar manner to EUR/JPY, there are initial signs of exhaustion

evident in the hourly timeframe. However, as mentioned above, a

further swing lower cannot be ruled out, so the formulation of a long

strategy is best done closer to 116.84, or in the event that we see a

durable swing higher.

Our longer-term view is based on the potential for a much largerrecovery to develop with scope for a return to 163.09 and then

potentially on to 192.65. As suggested above, signs of basing are still

not evident in the medium-term timeframe.


Long exited at 118.90. Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


9/15

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Potential longer-term region of value.

EUR/JPY is stabilising in the hourly perspective after briefly breaking the

support of a falling wedge in the daily timeframe. Given that movement

in EURJPY is largely driven by movement in EUR/USD, there is still

scope for a re-test of the region near the all-time low at 88.97.

However, a break over the resistance of the falling wedge is required,

currently at 99.80, before a more lasting recovery may take place.

As with any pair that includes the EUR, we will continue to monitor

Italian yields, anticipating a test of the 7.500% level in the 10 year

maturity. Longer-term, structure in the Italian 10 year suggests that

7.500% may not be a durable ceiling, with scope for yields beyond

7.500%.

Our medium-term outlook is driven by the theory, that in the absence of

further stresses out of the core Euro-Zone, it would be expected that a

degree of support would be found close to current levels for a longer-

term recovery.


Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY


10/15

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Pullback sought to enter short positions.

EUR/GBP remains in a likely corrective phase in the hourly timeframe.

Structure is still considered bearish and thus a lower high is sought in

the region of 0.8300. Medium-term we continue to seek a return

towards 0.8068 and potentially lower.

The break under long-term support from 0.8068 has also seen this pair

trading in a manner that is consistent with a trending market, featuring

impulsive moves more frequently and fewer false breaks. This is partly

attributed to the breakdown in EUR/USD under 1.3146, which has

assisted short positioning in other EUR crosses too.

Of continued concern is the elevated yield environment, particularly in

the Italian sovereign bond market. Our expectation of further downside

is made on the assumption that, in a rising yield environment in the core

Euro-Zone, Sterling will be deemed as a safe haven of sorts. Focus

remains on the Italian bond market where yields are once again trading

over 7.000%, with a host of rollover auctions scheduled for the first half

of the year.


Sell limit 3 at 0.8300, Objs: 0.8222/0.8142/0.8068, Stop: 0.8378

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP



11/15

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Further weakness anticipated following push under 1.2130.

EUR/CHF saw a test under the key low at 1.2131 yesterday. Hourly

structure continues to suggest further weakness ahead, with scope for a

re-test of 1.2000 and then potentially 1.1800 thereafter. The only clear

risk to our trading bias is the potential for a spate of intervention by the

SNB to protect the region near 1.2000. However, holding back the

remainder of the FX market may be a step too far for the SNB.

We maintain our bearish bias, given the price action in the weekly

timeframe, where a failure to break over the 50 week moving average

leads us to conclude that the larger down-trend is not yet complete.

Elevated yields in the Italian sovereign market are still being closely

monitored, with an expectation of a test of the 7.500% region in the 10

year maturity. Given the longer-term structure, it is doubtful that 7.500%

will cap this 10 year rate.

In an environment where 10 year Italian yields are trading at, or near,

7.000% it is likely that the Swiss Franc will see a degree of demand

despite the low deposit rates available.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Short 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2010/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2250.

EUR/CHF daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



12/15

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200-day average continues to maintain pressure.

Gold is re-testing its 200-day average, which was recently broken for the first time

in 3 years. The move was triggered by a multi-month triangle pattern breakout (see

both daily and intraday charts).

A number of bargain hunting trend -followers will still be watching for any

potential recovery back above the 200-day average which is currently trading at

$1634.

Failure to do so will heighten risk for a much larger decline that we have been

anticipating, if a weekly close beneath $1530 is confirmed. Our cycle analysis

continues to highlight downside targets into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000

(12-year channel floor/see top chart insert).

Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached a key

downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold positions.

This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would ultimately offer a

unique buying opportunity into this coming summer of 2012.

Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

Special Report Golds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO Webinar

Media Interviews: Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box Reports: (BLOOMBERG & CNBC)


Sell Stop 3: 1590, Objs: 1520/1460/1300, Stop: 1640

GOLD

Gold daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP


Gold hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

200-DMABROKEN

FIRST TIMEIN 3 YEARS!

DEMARK SIGNAL WARNED OF GOLDS OVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS

$1600

DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 / $1300 - UPSIDE: $1634 / $1760 / $1800GOLD KEY LEVELS

$1532

DOUBLETOP

$1760

CONFIRMATIONBENEATH $1532TARGETS $1300

$1800

CYCLE FAVOURS DECLINEINTO $1300 & $1040-00

TRENDCHANNEL

(12 YEARS)

GOLD (120 MIN)

SHARPDECLINE

WEAKRECOVERY

DEMARK

SELL SIGNAL

INDECISION HIGHLIGHTEDBY SMALL RANGES

AMIDST 200-DAY MA
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf


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Holding beneath the $30.0000 level.

Silver s weak recovery from oversold conditions is holding beneath key

psychological resistance at $30.0000 (see intraday chart below).

Near-term support at 28.6000 acts as our downside trigger level that would help

unlock a resumption lower into 26.1600 (29 th Dec-hammer pattern low).

Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the

major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile

trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to recover and

accumulate renewed buying interest.

Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000 - 26.0700 over the multi-

week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999

bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long -term uptrendand help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual resumption higher.

Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio (see top chart insert) which has

now accelerated higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next

few weeks. This also helps explain recent divergences between gold and silver.


SHORT 2: 34.1300, Objs: 26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 30.0000

SILVER

Spot Silver hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LPRon William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Spot Silver daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

DEMARK SELL SIGNALS

Silver (Daily)

200 DMA(36.1263)

KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)

13 YEAR LEVEL

UNWINDING 70% FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

Gold/Silver"Mint" Ratio

SILVER (120 MIN)

WEAKRECOVERY

PSYCHOLOGICAL(30.0000)

BULLISH DAILYHAMMER PATTERN

(26.1600)

R1 (30.0000)

S1 (28.6000)


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Limitation of liability

MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including

any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material InterestsMIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had

interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be

exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entrypoint for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop

will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report

is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

DISCLAIMER No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to buy or

sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind

whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and

for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no

representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate,

complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice,

nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should

obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees

that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and

complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

LEGALTERMS


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www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

MIG [email protected]

14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 NeuchtelTel. +41 32 722 81 00

Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

CONTACT

Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

Documents

2012 01 10 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report