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Anke Mueller-Solger,
IEP Lead Scientist,
Delta Stewardship Council
Delta ISB Meeting,May 4, 2012
•2011 – Water, Fish•2012 IEP Workshop•What’s next
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
BIG Disclaimer:Many graphs and data and their
interpretation in this presentation are PRELIMINARY and
subject to change!!!
Many thanks to everyone who provided data and graphs – all errors in display and interpretation are mine, not theirs.
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
2011 Was Very Wet
WY 2011
This Year
Graph: CDECResults are PRELIMINARY & subject to
change!
6.7
26.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Wat
er V
olum
e (M
AF/
Year
)
Water Year (Oct-Sep)
Total Annual Export Volume (MAF)
Total Annual Inflow Volume (MAF)
Total Annual Outflow Volume (MAF)
34.3
… And Had High In- & Outflows and Record High Exports
Data: DAYFLOW Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Ave
rage
Sep
-Oct
X2
+ 1
SD (
km)
Calendar Year
Sep-Oct X2 Long-term Sep-Oct X2 Median (1955-2011)
83
… And a Westward Low Salinity Zone in the Fall.(September-October)
Data: DAYFLOW
75
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
ESA Listed since 1993
CESA Listed since 20092012: ESA Candidate Species
Longfin Smelt
Delta Smelt
Graphs: DFG
Fall
Inde
xFa
ll In
dex
Some Fish Abundance Indices Improved in 2011
Highest since 2006
603
Highest since 2001
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
4.4
33.9
19.3
7.7
39.7
23.8
11.38.0
13.18.2
15.49.9
1.0 2.9 2.3 3.88.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Abu
ndan
ce In
dex
Spring: Larval Delta Smelt Index (20 mm)Larval Delta Smelt Index (20 mm) 1995-2011 Median (8.2)
3.2
11.1
4.03.3
11.9
8.0
3.54.7
1.62.9
0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.82.2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Abu
ndan
ce In
dex
Summer: Juvenile Delta Smelt Index (TNS)Juvenile Delta Smelt Index (TNS) 1995-2011 Median (2.9) 1959-2011 Median (5.4)
899
127
303420
864756
603
139210
74 26 41 28 23 17 29
343
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Wet Wet Wet Wet Wet Fairly Wet
Dry Dry Average Fairly Dry
Fairly Wet
Wet Dry Dry Dry Average Wet
Abu
ndan
ce In
dex
Fall: Subadult Delta Smelt Index (FMWT)Subadult Delta Smelt Index (FMWT) 1995-2011 Median (139) 1967-2011 Median (338)
Delta smelt indices increased throughout 2011
Spring:Highest
since 2006
Summer:Highest
since 2004
Fall: Highest
since 2001Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to
change!
Some fish indices did not improve in 2011
Threadfin Shad (non-native)
Winter Run Chinook Salmon
8240
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10Num
ber o
f Ret
urni
ng S
alm
on
Sacr
amen
to R
iver
Year
ESA Listed since 1989
Data: DFG
Graph: DFG
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
What happened?
?2 New IEP Initiatives:
– Fall Low Salinity Habitat Monitoring and
Studies starting Fall 2011→ → → Delta Smelt, Preliminary Results at Workshop
– 2012 IEP Analysis, Synthesis, & Work Planning
Friday
Wednesday
Thursday
2012 IEP Workshop:Some preliminary results
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
?Friday
WednesdayThursday
2012 Annual IEP Workshop~ 350 registered attendees, 56 talks in 11 sessions, 51 posters
Cooperation with CWEMF; Lake Natoma Inn, Folsom, CA
Photo: Bill Templin, DWR
What happened?
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
2012 Annual IEP Workshop:
Photo: Bill Templin, DWR
WEDNESDAY, 4/18• Joint CWEMF and IEP
Introduction and Updates• Smelt Life Cycle Models• Applied Hydrodynamic
Modeling and Forecast Tools
• New Delta Lead Scientist, Peter Goodwin
• Joint CWEMF and IEP Poster Session
THURSDAY, 4/19• What’s New in the Salmon
World?• Poster Speed Introductions• Due North: Cache Slough
Complex, Liberty Island and the Deep Water Shipping Channel
• Water Quality Effects, From Producers to Consumers
• IEP Poster Reception
FRIDAY, 4/20• Under the Microscope and
Lower Trophic Critters• Marking, Counting and
Detecting Fish: The Latest and Greatest from Suisun to the North Delta
• Fall Low Salinity Habitat (FLaSH) Studies: Making Sense of Physical and Biological Conditions in 2011
Agenda & Abstracts at http://www.water.ca.gov/iep/activities/workshop.cfm
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
Thursday
A few Workshop Highlights:
Chinook Salmon
River
Estuary
Ocean
• Ocean, river, estuary conditions all matter –the 4 H’s: hydrology, harvest, hatcheries, and habitat (J. Israel & R. Johnson, Reclamation and S. Lindley, NMFS)
• Survival of migrating juveniles is getting worse - best in North Delta/ Sacramento River (up to 70%), poor in Central Delta (down to < 10%, Russ Perry & Jon Burau, USGS), and poorest in the South Delta/San Joaquin River (often <10%, Pat Brandes, FWS)
• Survival is generally greater at higher flows (several talks). Duration of flow direction may be important metric (B. Cavallo, Cramer Fish Sciences)
• The Sacramento River banks near the city of Sacramento are “lined” with predators (>3 per 100m) – tethered salmon smolts had a 31% chance of being eaten in one hour (Cyril J. Michel, NMFS)
• Review of IEP Delta Juvenile Monitoring & Survival Studies – Public scoping meeting May 11 (J. Kirsch, FWS)
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
A few Workshop Highlights:
Delta Smelt: New ToolsFriday
134
160
195
231
106
622
918 22
8 30
50
100
150
200
250
DWSC Cache Lindsey Liberty Suisun Sac River
Total Silversides Dissected
Silversides Positive for Smelt
Brian Schreier, DWR: Genetic Detection of Predation on Larval
Delta Smelt by Silversides…
Thursday
… and others: Striped bass, Pikeminnow,Sunfish, Largemouth bass, Gobies, Threadfin
shad, Chinook salmon, Golden shiner,Tule perch, Exopalaemon shrimp,
Three-spine stickleback
Richard Connon, UCD: Transcriptomics & Delta
Smelt Monitoring
Don Portz, Reclamation:Smeltcam
Gonzalo Castillo, FWSDelta smelt ID with
natural marks
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
A few Workshop Highlights:
Delta Smelt: “FLaSH”Friday
• = Fall Low Salinity Habitat studies• Part of AM required by 2008 FWS Delta Smelt BiOp RPA - “fall X2”• Intensive new monitoring and studies starting in 2011
DFG
UCD
USBRUSGS
USGS
USBR
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
Brief FLaSH History & Timeline2008 – New FWS Delta Smelt BiOp with prescription
to adaptively manage fall outflow in W & AN years2009 – Habitat Study Group2011 – April – Wet Year designation
• May – Prepared draft AMP• June – Review panel convened by DSP• July – Panel report and AMP revisions• August — FLaSH Preparations• September – Implementation
2012 – Next review in July – 1st FLaSH report• Study continuation, maybe some new studies
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
FLaSH Terminology• FLaSH: Fall Low Salinity Habitat• X2: distance of salinity 2 from Golden Gate in km• Low salinity zone (LSZ)
– 1-6, where most delta smelt occur in the fall
• Low salinity habitat (LSH)– Includes other stuff that organisms need
• FLaSH Report: Synthesis of Studies in Fall Low Salinity Habitat of the San Francisco Estuary; USGS Scientific Investigations Report– Lead author Larry Brown, USGS– Review by DSP Science Panel in July
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
Current delta smelt fall range
“Stationary Habitat”
http://www.fws.gov/sfbaydelta/ocap/
After M. Peterson, Reviews in Fisheries Science 11(4): 291-313 (2003)
New Conceptual
Model
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
Current delta smelt fall range
LSZ
Low Outflow
“Stationary Habitat”
“Dynamic Habitat”
http://www.fws.gov/sfbaydelta/ocap/
After M. Peterson, Reviews in Fisheries Science 11(4): 291-313 (2003)
New Conceptual
Model
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
Current delta smelt fall range
LSZ
High Outflow
“Stationary Habitat”
“Dynamic Habitat”
http://www.fws.gov/sfbaydelta/ocap/
After M. Peterson, Reviews in Fisheries Science 11(4): 291-313 (2003)
New Conceptual
Model
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
Higher After Wet Springs
Higher After Wet Springs
After Wet Springs, Broad Fall LSZOverlaps Suisun Region
Higher After Wet Springs
Higher After Wet Springs
More Variable, Higher After Wet Springs
More Variable, Maybe Lower After Wet Springs
Always Low
Always Low
Narrow Fall LSZ In River Channels,Never Overlaps Suisun Region
Always Lower
Always Lower
Always Less Variable, Lower
Less Variable, Maybe Higher
Higher
Higher
Many in South, Fewer in North
Fewer
Bathymetric Complexity
Erodible Sediment Supply
Contaminant Sources
Entrainment Sites
Lower
Lower
Many
More
Net Total Delta Fall Outflow
San Joaquin River Contribution to Fall Outflow
Location and Extent of the Fall LSZ (1-6 psu)
Hydrodynamic Complexity in the Fall LSZ
Wind speed in the Fall LSZ
Turbidity in the Fall LSZ
Contaminant Concentrations in the Fall LSZ
Stationary Abiotic Habitat ComponentsSuisun Region River Confluence
Dynamic Abiotic Habitat ComponentsVariable Fall Outflow Regime Static Fall Outflow Regime
Dynamic Biotic Habitat ComponentsLSZ Overlaps Suisun Region LSZ Overlaps River ConfluenceHigher
Variable
Food Availability and Quality
Predator Abundance
Lower
Higher
X2=74km
X2=85km
Changing Interactions betweenStationary and Dynamic Habitat Components…
Higher Outflow
Lower Outflow
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
Higher After Wet Springs
Higher After Wet Springs
After Wet Springs, Broad Fall LSZOverlaps Suisun Region
Higher After Wet Springs
Higher After Wet Springs
More Variable, Higher After Wet Springs
More Variable, Maybe Lower After Wet Springs
Always Low
Always Low
Narrow Fall LSZ In River Channels,Never Overlaps Suisun Region
Always Lower
Always Lower
Always Less Variable, Lower
Less Variable, Maybe Higher
Higher
Higher
Many in South, Fewer in North
Fewer
Bathymetric Complexity
Erodible Sediment Supply
Contaminant Sources
Entrainment Sites
Lower
Lower
Many
More
Net Total Delta Fall Outflow
San Joaquin River Contribution to Fall Outflow
Location and Extent of the Fall LSZ (1-6 psu)
Hydrodynamic Complexity in the Fall LSZ
Wind speed in the Fall LSZ
Turbidity in the Fall LSZ
Contaminant Concentrations in the Fall LSZ
Stationary Abiotic Habitat ComponentsSuisun Region River Confluence
Broad, Westward
Higher
Better
May be Higher
Distribution
Growth, Survival, Fecundity
Health and Condition
Recruitment in the next Spring
Constricted, Eastward
Lower
Worse
Lower
Dynamic Abiotic Habitat ComponentsVariable Fall Outflow Regime Static Fall Outflow Regime
Dynamic Biotic Habitat ComponentsLSZ Overlaps Suisun Region LSZ Overlaps River ConfluenceHigher
Variable
Food Availability and Quality
Predator Abundance
Lower
Higher
Delta Smelt ResponsesLSZ Overlaps Suisun Region LSZ Overlaps River Confluence
X2=74km
X2=85km
Changing Interactions betweenStationary and Dynamic Habitat Components…
… lead to Changes in Delta Smelt?!Listed since 1993
Listed since 1993
Higher Outflow
Lower Outflow
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
Habitat & fish response predictions in the
2011 Fall Outflow Adaptive Management Plan
Variable (Fall Months) 85 km 81 km 74 kmDynamic Abiotic Habitat Components
Average Daily Net Delta Outflow ~5000 cfs? ~8000 cfs? 11400Average Turbidity in the LSZ Lower Moderate HigherAverage Secchi Depth in the LSZ Higher Moderate Lower and 7 others
Dynamic Biotic Habitat ComponentsAverage Phytoplankton Biomass in the LSZ (excluding Microcystis)
Lower Moderate Higher
Contribution of Diatoms to LSZ Phytoplankton Biomass
Lower Moderate Higher
Calanoid copepod biomass in the LSZ Lower Moderate HigherCorbula biomass in the LSZ Higher Moderate Lower and 8 others
Delta Smelt (DS) ResponsesDS growth, survival, and fecundity in fall Lower Moderate HigherDS health and condition in fall Lower Moderate HigherDS Recruitment the Next Year Lower Moderate Higher and 4 others
Predictions for X2 scenarios
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
• FMWT conducted by DFG
• Began in 1967
• Samples 122 stations Sep-Dec
• 12 minute, oblique tows
• Added WQ, phyto, zoop,…
FLaSH studies complementingIEP Fall Midwater Trawl (FMWT)
Graphic: D. Contreras, DFGResults are PRELIMINARY & subject to
change!
Current FLaSHAnalysis & Synthesis Approach:
Compare -4 regions (High Salinity, Low Salinity, Fresh, and Cache/SRDWSC)-4 years (2005, 2006, 2010, 2011)
→ Were habitat & fish predictions for 3 fall X2 scenarios accurate?
X2=74 km, ~Fall 2011 X2=85 km, Fall 2010 X2=81 km, ~Fall 2005&6
Graphs: Michael MacWilliams, Delta Modeling Associates, Inc.
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
1000
10000
100000
1000000
Jan
Feb M
…A
pr M…
Jun Jul
Aug Se
pO
ct N…
Dec Jan
Feb M
…A
pr M…
Jun Jul
Aug Se
pO
ct N…
Dec
Flow
(cfs
)
Net Delta Outflow, 2005-6 and 2010-11
OUT (2005-6)OUT (2010-11)
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00Ja
n F… M…
A…
M…
Jun Jul A… S… O…
N…
D…
Jan F… M
…A
…M
…Ju
n Jul A… S… O…
N…
D…
X2 (k
m)
X2, 2005-6 and 2010-11
X2 (2005-6) X2 (2010-11) Sep-Oct X2=74 km
Outflow & X2
Data: DAYFLOWGraphs: A. Mueller-Solger
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
2011201020062005
YEAR
2 3 4 5 6 7SURVEY
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2011201020062005
YEAR
2 3 4 5 6 7SURVEY
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2011201020062005
YEAR
2 3 4 5 6 7SURVEY
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
SECC
HI2011201020062005
YEAR
2 3 4 5 6 7SURVEY
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
SECC
HI
Sep Oct Nov Dec Sep Oct Nov Dec
Sep Oct Nov Dec Sep Oct Nov DecCS/SDWSC
1-6 ppt (= LSZ)
>6 ppt
<1 ppt
Secc
hiD
epth
(m)
Secc
hiD
epth
(m)
Data: IEP FMWTGraphs:S. Slater, DFG
Turbidity (1)Monthly Secchi depths lowest in the LSZ and CS/SDWSC (= most turbid).
In LSZ, lowest Secchi depths in Sep & Oct 2011.
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
Grizzly Bay (LSZ)
Upper Cache Slough
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Suspended Sediment Concentration
Grizzly Bay
Suisun Cutoff
UpperCache
LibertyIsland
SRDWSC
Turb
idit
y (N
TU)
Sep-Jan Turbidity Averages
PRELIMINARY DATA & Graphs:D. Schoellhamer &T. Morgan, USGS
Turbidity (2)Turbidity & SSC at Suisun Bay sites were higher and more variable than at Cache/SRDWSC sites
LSZ
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
2005 2006 2010 2011 2005 2006 2010 2011
1
12
1
12
1
12
1
12
1-6 psu 6-12 psu
< 1 psu Cache/SDWSC
< >
< <=
<
< >>
Bloom
Chlo
roph
yll a
(µg/
L)
Year
Phytoplankton Biomass Fall 2011 Phytoplankton Bloom in LSZ
N=912Data: EMP, USGS-Polaris, FMWTGraph: Anke Mueller-Solger, DSC
SFSU data: up to 30 µg/L(F. Wilkerson)
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
Nov 15,FMWT
Fall 2011 Phytoplankton Bloom Species in LSZ:
Blue-Greens & Diatoms
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
10000000
10000000
1E+09
Sep Oct Nov Dec
Biol
volu
me
(µm
3 /m
L)
Aphanizomenon Anabaena Aulacoseira
Sep. Peak
Nov. Peak
Data: EMP, USGS-Polari, Graph: A. Mueller-Solger, DSCsResults are PRELIMINARY & subject to
change!
1 2 3 4 5 6
Distance from GG (km)
Carq
.St
rait Suisun
BayWestern
Delta
Dat
e
FallChl a
(µg/L)
Central & San Pablo Bays
Was the fall 2011 phytoplankton bloom unusual?
2 3 4 51 60
Rio VistaGolden Gate
Fall Blooms common in Suisun/West Delta before 1987
Data: EMP, USGS-Polaris, DFG “NZ”,Graph: A. Mueller-
Solger, DSC
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
Fall blooms only west of Carquinez,except 2011
1 2 3 4 5 6
Distance from GG (km)
Suisun Bay
Western Delta
Dat
e
FallChl a
(µg/L)
Central & San Pablo Bays
“Depression”
Carq
.St
rait
Fall Blooms common in Suisun/West Delta before 1987
Was the fall 2011 phytoplankton bloom unusual?
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
Acartiella sinensisAcartia spp.
Pseudodiaptomus forbesiPseudodiaptomus marinusSinocalanus doerrii
Tortanus spp.
October
0
5000
November
0
5000
0
December5000
>6 1-6 <1 Cache/SDWSC
Aver
age
BPU
E (µ
g C
arbo
n m
-3)
September
0
5000
No zooplankton samples >6 ppt
Zooplankton Biomass (1) High adult calanoid copepod biomass in LSZ & Cache/DWSC in fall 2011
Data: FMWTGraph: A. Hennessy,DFG
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
Aver
age
BPU
E (µ
g C
arbo
n m
-3)
0
September
0
14000
October
0
14000
November
0
14000
December
0
14000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Data: IEP EMPGraph: A. Hennessy,DFG
Year
Zooplankton Biomass (2) High total zooplankton biomass in LSZ in fall 2011
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
May 2009-11
Oct 2009-11
Filtration Rate (m/d)
Corbicula
Potamocorbula
Corbicula
Potamocorbula
Clam grazing in the LSZ is higher in fall than in spring
Data: IEP EMP “GRTS” & Jan Thompson, USGS; Graphs:Jan Thompson, USGS
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
Clam grazing in Suisun shallows lower in Oct. 2011,Clam grazing in deep Suisun channels higher in Oct. 2011
20
09 L
T5 F
R
2009
LT5
GR
2010
LT5
FR
2010
LT5
GR
2011
LT5
FR
2011
LT5
GR
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Filt
rati
on, G
razi
ng R
ate
(m3
m-2
d-1
)
2009* 2010 2011
20
09 L
T5 F
R
2009
LT5
GR
2010
LT5
FR
2010
LT5
GR
2011
LT5
FR
2011
LT5
GR
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2009* 2010 2011
Data: IEP EMP & J. Thompson, USGS; Graphs: J. Thompson, USGS* 2009 Sep-Oct X2 = 87 km
Suisun Bay < 5 m Suisun Bay > 5 m
1 2 32 2 1= > < <
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
Delta Smelt Fall Distribution:
Graphic: D. Contreras, DFG
Fall Midwater Trawl (FMWT)
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
FMWT- September 2011 Delta Smelt In Low Salinity Zone
= 0
= 1-25
CPUE = Catch per 10,000 m3
>6 1-6 <1Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to
change!
FMWT - October 2011 Delta Smelt Within & Above The Low Salinity Zone
= 0
= 1-25
= 45
CPUE
>6 1-6 <1Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to
change!
FMWT- November 2011 Delta Smelt Move With The Low Salinity Zone
= 0
= 1-25
CPUE
>6 1-6 <1Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to
change!
FMWT - December 2011 Delta Smelt Follow The Low Salinity Zone
= 0
= 1-25
= 47
= 211
CPUE
>6 1-6 <1Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to
change!
Delta Smelt Growth, Health & Nutrition
S. Teh, J. Hobbs,S. Acuna, S. Gandhi –UC Davis
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
Individual condition &
Growth
Organ Condition
Cellular Condition
Biochemical
Hie
rarc
hy o
f fun
ctio
n
Stressor Response Time
Delta Smelt Health & Nutrition
S. Teh, J. Hobbs, S. Acuna, S. Gandhi –UC Davis
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
1999 2000 2001 2005 2006 2007 20110.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1999 2000 2001 2005 2006 2007 2011
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
August 1999-2011 September 1999-2011
Gro
wth
Rat
e (m
m/d
ay)
Data and Graphs:J. Hobbs, UC Davis 8 9 10 11 12
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
Gro
wth
Rat
e (m
m/d
ay)
Delta smelt grew well in 2011
Month
2011
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Cache/ SDWSC
Sto
mac
h co
nten
ts b
y pe
rcen
t num
ber
Pseudo spp. Acartiella Sinocalanus TortanusOther calanoid Cyclopoid Limno spp.
Sep
tem
ber
Oct
ober
Nov
embe
rD
ecem
ber
1-6 ppt
890
852
839
223
227
71
308
37
Zooplankton Consumption by Delta Smelt in fall 2011~Selective feeding on Pseudodiaptomus, Acartiella, cyclopoids;
not much Sinocalanusin diet in spite ofhigh abundance inCache/SRDWSC
Data: IEP FMWTGraph: S. Slater, DFG
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
Habitat & fish response predictions in the
2011 Fall Outflow Adaptive Management Plan – many met!
Variable (Fall Months) 85 km 81 km 74 kmDynamic Abiotic Habitat Components
~ 2005&6 ~2010 ~ 2011
Average Daily Net Delta Outflow ~5000 cfs? ~8000 cfs? 11400Average Turbidity in the LSZ Lower Moderate Higher üAverage Secchi Depth in the LSZ Higher Moderate Lower ü and 7 others
Dynamic Biotic Habitat ComponentsAverage Phytoplankton Biomass in the LSZ (excluding Microcystis)
Lower Moderate Higher ü
Contribution of Diatoms to LSZ Phytoplankton Biomass
Lower Moderate Higher ü
Calanoid copepod biomass in the LSZ Lower Moderate Higher üCorbula biomass in the LSZ Higher Moderate Lower and 8 others
Delta Smelt (DS) ResponsesDS growth, survival, and fecundity in fall Lower Moderate Higher üDS health and condition in fall Lower Moderate HigherDS Recruitment the Next Year Lower Moderate Higher and 4 others
Predictions for X2 scenarios
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
– “Management, Analysis, and Synthesis Team”Broader IEP Analysis, Synthesis, & Work Planning, 2012 (+?)
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
– 2012 IEP Analysis, Synthesis, & Work Planning
2012: POD Fish Species – what happened in 2011? : How did changes in habitat conditions
affect the POD fish species? What’s missing?• Includes 2013 Workplan – PSP; Your thoughts? • IEP report – revised conceptual models, assessments• Habitat conditions and fish responses in all seasons
: Were “fall predictions” met?
If MAST Continues:
2013: Other Fish Species?2014: Ecosystem – peer-reviewed “POD Book” (AFS)
Delta Science Plan? (DSP)Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to
change!
Updated Conceptual Models….
Temperature (spawning window)Predation by Silversides in
freshwater?Entrainment & TransportFood (NH4 Inhibition?)
Contaminants(NH4)
HydrologyWeather
Larvae – March-June
Contaminants(runoff risk)
Exports
Adults – December-March
First flush toxicity?Entrainment
Food?
WeatherOutflowClam grazingNutrients?
Subadults—September-December
FoodTurbidity
Temperature (metabolism ) Harmful Algal Blooms
Size and Location of LSZPredation by striped bass in LSZ?
WeatherHydrologyClam grazingNutrients?
Juveniles – June-September
Food TurbidityTemperature (metabolism) Harmful Algal Blooms
Spawning Stock Larval
Survival
Growth and Survival
Gro
wth
and
Su
rviv
al
– 2012 IEP Analysis & Synthesis
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
… & “Assessments”Right now REALLY drafty!
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
… & “Assessments”Right now REALLY drafty!
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
Reports are Great,Peer-Reviewed Pub.s are Better!
Total IEP POD Funds: ~$32MWith CALFED/Delta Science: ~$52M
$0.00
$2,000,000.00
$4,000,000.00
$6,000,000.00
$8,000,000.00
$10,000,000.00
$12,000,000.00
$14,000,000.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
IEP Agency POD Funds, 2006-2011with coordinated CALFED/Delta Science Funds
DWR USBR SWRCB CALFED/Delta Science
Published POD Papers 2006-2011: 64With Manuscripts In Review: 76(+)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 In Review
0
5
10
15
20
25
Peer-Reviewed POD Publications (#)Fish populations Habitat Bottom-Up Top-Down Synthesis
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!
DFG
USGS
DWR
UCD
SFSU
Thanks!
Results are PRELIMINARY & subject to change!