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8/6/2019 2011 Half-Year Natural Catastrophe Review Jul 12th-2011
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Questions and Answers
Welcome/Introduction Terese Rosenthal
U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update Carl Hedde
Global Natural Catastrophe Update Peter Hppe
Economic Implications of Natural Catastrophe LossesDr. Robert Hartwig
Agenda
2
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U.S. NATURAL CATASTROPHE UPDATE
Carl Hedde, SVP, Head of Risk AccumulationMunich Reinsurance America, Inc.
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From 1980 until today all lossevents; for USA and selectedcountries in Europe all lossevents since 1970.
Retrospectively, all greatdisasters since 1950.
In addition, all major historicalevents starting from 79 AD
eruption of Mt. Vesuvius (3,000historical data sets).
Currently more than 30,000data sets
4
The Database Today
MR NatCat SERVICE One of the worlds largest databases on natural catastrophes
2011 Munich Re
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2011 Headlines
Very active thunderstorm (tornado-hail) season with insured lossesexceeding $16 billion, far above the 2001 to 2010 January Juneaverage thunderstorm loss of $6.4 billion (in 2010 Dollars). It was alsothe deadliest thunderstorm season in over 50 years.
Extensive severe flooding events in Midwest and Great Plains
Large, damaging wildfires in Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico.
Major blizzard and ice storm in Midwest; severe freezing conditions inSouthwest
Seasonal forecasts indicate active hurricane season; neither El Nioor La Nia conditions are expected to be a factor this year
U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
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As of July 6, 2011 Number of
Events FatalitiesEstimated OverallLosses (US $m)
Estimated InsuredLosses (US $m)
SevereThunderstorm
43 593 23,573 16,350
Winter Storm 8 15 1,900 1,425
Flood 8 15 2,100 in progress
Earthquake 2 1 105 in progress
Tropical Cyclone 0 0 0 0
Wildfire 37 7 125 50
Natural Disaster Losses in the United StatesFirst Six Months of 2011
6 2011 Munich Re
U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
Source: MR NatCat SERVICE
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Natural Disasters in the United States, 1980 2011Number of Events (January June Only)
Source: MR NatCat SERVICE 7 2011 Munich Re
Meteorological events(Storm)
Hydrological events(Flood, massmovement)
Climatological events (Extreme temperature,drought, forest fire)
Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami,volcanic eruption)
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
First Six Months 201198 Events
U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
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Meteorological events(Storm)
Hydrological events(Flood, massmovement)
Climatological events (Extreme temperature,drought, forest fire)
Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami,volcanic eruption)
Natural Disasters in the United States, 1980 2011Number of Events (Annual Totals 1980 2010 vs. First Six Months 2011)
Source: MR NatCat SERVICE 8 2011 Munich Re
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
2
51
8
37
U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
First Six Months 201198 Events
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2011: Year of the Tornado
Pratt City, Alabama
Joplin, Missouri
Source: FEMA
U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
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Deadliest tornado year since 1953: 593 fatalities
Deadliest single tornado since 1947: Joplin, Missouri, 155 fatalities
Most observed tornadoes in a month: 875, April
Largest number of tornadoes in a day: 226, April 27Most EF5 Tornados in a year: 6 (tied for first with 1974)
Five insured billion-dollar outbreaks
Two thunderstorm outbreaks each caused insured losses of about $5billion
Late April (Alabama) outbreak is among top 10 largest naturalcatastrophe losses in U.S. history
U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
2011: Year of the Tornado
10 2011 Munich Re
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U.S. Thunderstorm Loss TrendsJanuary June only, 1980 - 2011
Thunderstorm losses for the period January June in 2011 were more than double of the2006-2010 5-year average.
Source: Property Claims ServiceMR NatCat SERVICE
First Half 2011$16.4 bn
U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
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Source: Property Claims ServiceMR NatCat SERVICE
U.S. Thunderstorm Loss TrendsAnnual Totals 1980 2010 vs. First Half 2011
Average thunderstorm losses have increased fivefold since 1980.
First Half 2011$16.4 bn
U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
12 2011 Munich Re
First Half 2011$16.4 bn
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2011 U.S. Tornado CountU.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
13 2011 Munich Re
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Lower Mississippi Flood of 2011
April 2011
Source: NASA
U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
14 2011 Munich Re
http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/50000/50504/missrv_amo_2011125_lrg.jpghttp://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/50000/50504/missrv_amo_2010125_lrg.jpg8/6/2019 2011 Half-Year Natural Catastrophe Review Jul 12th-2011
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Other Notable Floods of 2011
Similar to the triggers of the Mississippi River flood, heavy rains in the northernplains states and the melting of a heavy snowpack in the Rockies resulted insevere flooding along several river systems, including the:
Missouri River: Numerous breached levees (some intentional to preventflooding in densely populated regions), agriculture and transportationnetworks severely disrupted, Fort Calhoun nuclear power plant threatened,but no damage.
Souris River: Record flood levels at Minot, North Dakota. Levees wereovertopped by flood waters; an estimated 11,000 residents (25% of Minotspopulation) was evacuated.
June 2011
U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
16 2011 Munich Re
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Notable Wildfires in 2011
Texas: Over 3 million acres burnedin west Texas from 12 major seats offire. Over 200 homes andbusinesses destroyed, $50 millioninsured loss.
Arizona and New Mexico: Wallowfire largest in AZ history at 538,000acres, Las Conchas fire near LosAlamos, 30 buildings destroyed.
April June
Source: NASA
U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
17 2011 Munich Re
http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/50000/50924/wallow_amo_2011159_lrg.jpghttp://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/50000/50924/wallow_amo_2011159_lrg.jpghttp://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/50000/50924/wallow_amo_2011159_lrg.jpg8/6/2019 2011 Half-Year Natural Catastrophe Review Jul 12th-2011
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Number of Acres Burned in Wildfires, 1980 2011 YTDU.S. Natural Catastrophe Update
Source: Property Claims ServiceMR NatCat SERVICE 2011 Munich Re 18
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Deadliest DisastersDate Event Area Deaths
11.3.2011 Earthquake, tsunami Japan 15,500 (still missing: 7,297)
12/16.1.2011 Landslides, flash floods Brazil 1,350
22-28.4.2011 Severe storm, tornadoes USA 350
Costliest Disasters (Overall Losses)Date Event Area Overall losses in US$m
11.3.2011 Earthquake, tsunami Japan 210,000
22.2.2011 Earthquake New Zealand 20,000
22-28.4.2011 Severe storm, tornadoes USA 7,500
Costliest Disasters (Insured Losses)Date Event Area Insured losses in US$m
11.3.2011 Earthquake, tsunami Japan ~30.000
22.2.2011 Earthquake New Zealand >10,000
22-28.4.2011 Severe storm, tornadoes USA 5,050
25Source: MR NatCat SERVICE 2011 Munich Re
Global Natural Catastrophe Update
Worldwide Natural Disasters 2011Significant Natural Disasters (January June only)
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Gl b l N l C h U d
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Insured losses 1980 - 2011 (January June only): US$ 389bn
Worldwide Natural Disasters 1980 2011Percentage Distribution of Insured Losses Per Continent (January June only)
27
Continent Insured losses [US$ m] Jan June only
Africa 1,000America 237,200Asia 45,100Australia/Oceania 25,100Europe 80,900
Source: MR NatCat SERVICE 2011 Munich Re
Global Natural Catastrophe Update
58%
2%
21%
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100
200
300
400
500
600
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Worldwide Natural Disasters 1980 2011Number of Events (January June only)
Source: MR NatCat SERVICE 28 2011 Munich Re
Meteorological events(Storm)
Hydrological events(Flood, massmovement)
Climatological events (Extreme temperature,drought, forest fire)
Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami,volcanic eruption)
First Six Months 2011355 Events
Global Natural Catastrophe Update
Gl b l N t l C t t h U d t
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U S $ b n
Worldwide Natural Disasters 1980 2011Overall and Insured Losses
29
Losses in 2011: Overall = US$ 265bn ; Insured = US$ 60bn
Overall losses (in 2011 values) Insured losses (in 2011 values)
Source: MR NatCat SERVICE 2011 Munich Re
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Loss figures 2011January June only
Global Natural Catastrophe Update
Global Natural Catastrophe Update
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2011(Jan June)
2010(Jan June)
Average ofthe last 10
years 2001-2010
(Jan June)
Average ofthe last 30
years 1981-2010
(Jan June)
Top Year1981 -2010
(Jan June)
Number of events 355 480 390 310 2007
Overall losses inUS$m(original values)
265,000 97,200 47,400 36,400 1995(EQ Kobe)
Insured losses inUS$m(original values )
60,000 26,900 12,100 8,200 1994(EQ, US
Northridge)
Fatalities 19,380 230,300 52,900 42,700 2010(EQ Haiti)
Natural Catastrophes, 2011Overview and comparison with previous years
30Source: MR NatCat SERVICE 2011 Munich Re
Global Natural Catastrophe Update
Global Natural Catastrophe Update
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Worldwide Natural Disasters 2011January June only
EarthquakeNew Zealand
EarthquakeJapan
Tornadoes,Wildfires, Floods
US
FloodsAustralia
Three strong earthquakes in 9months
High losses due to soilliquefaction
Strongest EQ in Japan Mw 9.0
Spring time brought extremeweather and climate events
Deadliest tornadooutbreak since 1925 in
the US ( 1. Half year : 589)
The series of floods 2010/11were the most devastating inmodern Australian history
Highest sea surfacetemperature off theAustralian coastline
31Source: MR NatCat SERVICE 2011 Munich Re
Global Natural Catastrophe Update
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Global Natural Catastrophe Update
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Date Affected Area Fatalities1920 China 273,4001976 China 242,800
2010 Haiti 222,5702004 Indonesia 220,000
1923 Japan 142,800
Date Affected
Area
Overall losses (US$m,
original values)2011 Japan 210,000
1995 Japan 100,000
2008 China 85,000
1994 USA 44,000
2010 Chile 30,000
Deadliest/Costliest Earthquakes 1900 June 2011
34Source: MR NatCat SERVICE 2011 Munich Re
Global Natural Catastrophe Update
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Economic & Financial
Implications of NaturalCatastrophe LossesFirst Half 2011
Insurance Information InstituteJuly 12, 2011
Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist
Insurance Information Institute
110 William Street
New York, NY 10038Tel: 212.346.5520 Cell: 917.453.1885 [email protected] www.iii.org
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Top 12 (13?) Most Costly Disasters
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38
Top 12 (13?) Most Costly Disastersin U.S. History
(Insured Losses, 2010 Dollars, $ Billions)
*Losses will actually be broken down into several events as determined by PCS.Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments.
$11.5 $12.8$14.0
$17.5$22.6 $23.1
$45.8
$8.6$8.2$6.7$6.3$5.3$4.3
$0
$5$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50
Jeanne(2004)
Frances(2004)
Rita(2005)
Hugo(1989)
Ivan(2004)
Charley(2004)
Wilma(2005)
Ike(2008)
SpringTornadoes*
(2011)
Northridge(1994)
Andrew(1992)
9/11 Attack(2001)
Katrina(2005)
Taken as a single event, theSpring 2011 tornado season
would likely become 5 th costliest
event in US insurance history
Insurers Making a Difference in
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Insurers Making a Difference inImpacted Communities
Source: Insurance Information Institute 39
Destroyed home inTuscaloosa. Insurerswill pay some 165,000
claims totaling $2 billionin the Tuscaloosa/
Birmingham areas alone.
Presentation of a checkto Tuscaloosa MayorWalt Maddox to theTuscaloosa Storm
Recovery Fund
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P/C Net Income After Taxes
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P/C Net Income After Taxes19912011:Q1 ($ Millions)
$ 1 4
, 1 7 8
$ 5
, 8 4 0
$ 1 9
, 3 1 6
$ 1 0
, 8 7 0
$ 2 0
, 5 9 8
$ 2 4
, 4 0 4 $
3 6
, 8 1 9
$ 3 0
, 7 7 3
$ 2 1
, 8 6 5
$ 3
, 0 4 6
$ 3 0
, 0 2
9
$ 6 2
, 4 9 6
$ 3
, 0 4 3
$ 3 4
, 6 7 0
$ 7
, 8 0 7
$ 2 8
, 6 7
2
-$6,970
$ 6 5
, 7 7 7
$ 4 4
, 1 5 5
$ 2 0
, 5 5 9
$ 3 8
, 5 0 1
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11*
2005 ROE*= 9.6%2006 ROE = 12.7%2007 ROE = 10.9%2008 ROE = 0.3%2009 ROAS 1 = 5.9%2010 ROAS = 6.5%2011:Q1 ROAS = 5.6%
P-C Industry 2011:Q1 profits weredown 12.2% to $7.8B vs. $8.9B in2010:Q1, as underwriting results
deteriorated
* ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 6.5% ROAS for
2011:Q1, 7.5% for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009.Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute 46
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Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C
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-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
7 5
7 6
7 7
7 8
7 9
8 0
8 1
8 2
8 3
8 4
8 5
8 6
8 7
8 8
8 9
9 0
9 1
9 2
9 3
9 4
9 5
9 6
9 7
9 8
9 9
0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
0 9
1 0
1 1 *
Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/CInsurance Industry, 1975 2011*
*Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs are I.I.I. estimates. 2011 figure is an estimate based on annualized ROAS for Q1 data.
Note: Data for 2008-2011 exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers.Source: Insurance Information Institute; NAIC, ISO, A.M. Best.
1977:19.0% 1987:17.3%
1997:11.6% 2007:12.3%
1984: 1.8% 1992: 4.5% 2001: -1.2%
10 Years
2011:6.1%*
History suggests next ROE
peak will be in 2016-2017
ROE
1975: 2.4%
48
Soft Market Persisted in 2010 but
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49
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
7 1
7 2
7 3
7 4
7 5
7 6
7 7
7 8
7 9
8 0
8 1
8 2
8 3
8 4
8 5
8 6
8 7
8 8
8 9
9 0
9 1
9 2
9 3
9 4
9 5
9 6
9 7
9 8
9 9
0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
0 9
1 0
1 1 *
Soft Market Persisted in 2010 butGrowth Returned: More in 2011?(Percent)
1975-78 1984-87 2000-03
*2011 figure is an estimate based on Q1 data.
Shaded areas denote hard market periodsSources: A.M. Best (historical and forecast), ISO, Insurance Information Institute.
Net Written Premiums Fell0.7% in 2007 (First Decline
Since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008,and 4.2% in 2009, the First 3-Year Decline Since 1930-33.
NWP was up0.9% in 2010
2011:Q1growth was+3.5%; FirstQ1 growthsince 2007
P/C Net Premiums Written: % Change,
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50
P/C Net Premiums Written: % Change,Quarter vs. Year-Prior Quarter
Sources: ISO, Insurance Information Institute.
Finally! Back-to-back quarters of net written premium growth(vs. the same quarter, prior year)
1 0
. 2 %
1 5
. 1 % 1 6 . 8 %
1 6 . 7 %
1 2
. 5 %
1 0
. 1 %
9 . 7
%
7 . 8
%
7 . 2
%
5 . 6
%
2 . 9 % 5
. 5 %
- 4 . 6
%
- 4 . 1
%
- 5
. 8 %
- 1 . 6
%
1 0
. 3 %
1 0
. 2 % 1
3 . 4
%
6 . 6
%
- 1 . 6
%
2 . 1 %
0 . 0
%
- 1 . 9
%
0 . 5
%
- 1 . 8
% - 0 . 7
%
- 4 . 4
% - 3 . 7
%
- 5 . 3
%
- 5 . 2
%- 1 . 4
%
- 1 . 3
%
1 . 3 % 2 . 3
%
1 . 3 % 3
. 5 %
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2 0 0 2 : Q 1
2 0 0 2 : Q 2
2 0 0 2 : Q 3
2 0 0 2 : Q 4
2 0 0 3 : Q 1
2 0 0 3 : Q 2
2 0 0 3 : Q 3
2 0 0 3 : Q 4
2 0 0 4 : Q 1
2 0 0 4 : Q 2
2 0 0 4 : Q 3
2 0 0 4 : Q 4
2 0 0 5 : Q 1
2 0 0 5 : Q 2
2 0 0 5 : Q 3
2 0 0 5 : Q 4
2 0 0 6 : Q 1
2 0 0 6 : Q 2
2 0 0 6 : Q 3
2 0 0 6 : Q 4
2 0 0 7 : Q 1
2 0 0 7 : Q 2
2 0 0 7 : Q 3
2 0 0 7 : Q 4
2 0 0 8 : Q 1
2 0 0 8 : Q 2
2 0 0 8 : Q 3
2 0 0 8 : Q 4
2 0 0 9 : Q 1
2 0 0 9 : Q 2
2 0 0 9 : Q 3
2 0 0 9 : Q 4
2 0 1 0 : Q 1
2 0 1 0 : Q 2
2 0 1 0 : Q 3
2 0 1 0 : Q 4
2 0 1 1 : Q 1
The long-awaited uptick. In2011:Q1 occurring in
personal linespredominating cos. (+3.8%)and commercial lines
predominating cos. (+3.5%)
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P/C I I i 1969 2010
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P/C Insurer Impairments, 19692010
8
1 5
1 2
7
1 1
9
3 4
9
1 3
1 2
1 9
9
1 6
1 4
1 3
3 6
4 9
3 1 3
4
5 0
4 8
5 5
6 0
5 8
4 1
2 9
1 6
1 2
3 1
1 8 1
9
4 9 5
0
4 7
3 5
1 8
1 4 1
5 1 6 1
8
1 1
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
6 9
7 0
7 1
7 2
7 3
7 4
7 5
7 6
7 7
7 8
7 9
8 0
8 1
8 2
8 3
8 4
8 5
8 6
8 7
8 8
8 9
9 0
9 1
9 2
9 3
9 4
9 5
9 6
9 7
9 8
9 9
0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
0 9
1 0
Source: A.M. Best Special Report 1969-2010 Impairment Review, June 21, 2010; Insurance Information Institute.
The Number of Impairments Varies Significantly Over the P/C InsuranceCycle, With Peaks Occurring Well into Hard Markets
8 of the 18 in 2009 were smallFlorida carriers. Total also
includes a few title insurers.
54
Reasons for US P/C Insurer
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55
Reasons for US P/C InsurerImpairments, 19692010
3.6%4.0%
8.6%
7.3%
7.8%
7.1%
7.8%13.6%
40.3%
Source: A.M. Best: 1969-2010 Impairment Review , Special Report, April 2011.
Historically, Catastrophe Losses Account for Only a Small Share ofP-C Insurer Impairments.
Deficient Loss Reserves/ Inadequate Pricing
Reinsurance Failure
Rapid GrowthAlleged Fraud
Catastrophe Losses
Affiliate Impairment
Investment Problems(Overstatement of Assets)
Misc.
Sig. Change in Business
Top 10 Lines of Business for US P/C
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56
pImpaired Insurers, 20002010
2.0%4.4%
4.8%
6.5%
6.9%
7.7%
8.1%
10.9%
22.2%
26.6%
Source: A.M. Best: 1969-2010 Impairment Review , Special Report, April 2011.
Catastrophe Exposed Lines Account for a Relatively Small Share of the
Premium Volume of Impaired Insurers Over the Past Decade
Workers Comp
Financial Guaranty
Pvt. Passenger Auto
Homeowners
Commercial Multiperil
Commercial Auto Liability
Other Liability
Med Mal
SuretyTitle
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SURPLUS/CAPITAL/CAPACITY
57
Have Large Global Losses ReducedCapacity in the Industry, Setting
the Stage for a Market Turn?
US Policyholder Surplus:
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$0$50
$100$150$200$250$300
$350$400$450$500$550$600
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11*
y p19752011*
* As of 3/31/11.Source: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute.
Surplus is a measure ofunderwriting capacity. It is
analogous to OwnersEquity or Net Worth in
non-insurance
organizations
($ Billions)
The Premium-to-Surplus Ratio Stood at $0.77:$1 as of3/31/11, A Near Record Low (at Least in Recent History)**
Surplus as of 3/31/11 was a record $564.7B, upfrom $437.1B at the crisis trough at 3/31/09. Prior
peak was $521.8 as of 9/30/07. Surplus as of 3/31/11was 8.2% above 2007 peak; Crisis trough was as of
3/31/09 16.2% below 2007 peak.
58
Policyholder Surplus,
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y p ,2006:Q42011:Q1
Sources: ISO, A.M .Best.
($ Billions)
$487.1
$496.6
$512.8$521.8
$478.5
$455.6
$437.1
$463.0
$490.8
$511.5
$540.7$530.5
$544.8$556.9
$564.7
$505.0$515.6$517.9
$420
$440
$460
$480
$500
$520
$540
$560
$580
06:Q4 07:Q1 07:Q2 07:Q3 07:Q4 08:Q1 08:Q2 08:Q3 08:Q4 09:Q1 09:Q2 09:Q3 09:Q4 10:Q1 10:Q2 10:Q3 10:Q4 11:Q1
2007:Q3Previous Surplus Peak
Quarterly Surplus Changes Since 2007:Q3 Peak
09:Q1: -$84.7B (-16.2%) 09:Q2: -$58.8B (-11.2%)09:Q3: -$31.0B (-5.9%)09:Q4: -$10.3B (-2.0%)
10:Q1: +$18.9B (+3.6%)10:Q2: +$8.7B (+1.7%)10:Q3: +$23.0B (+4.4%)10:Q4: +$35.1B (+6.7%)11:Q4: +$42.9B (+8.2%)
Surplus set a new
record in 2011:Q1*
*Includes $22.5B of paid-incapital from a holdingcompany parent for oneinsurers investment in anon-insurance business inearly 2010.
The Industry now has $1 ofsurplus for every $0.77 of
NPWthe strongest claims-paying status in its history.
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Above Average Activity,More Landfalls Expected
Outlook for the 2011 Atlantic
Hurricane Season
Outlook for 2011 Hurricane Season:
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75% More Active Than Average
Average* 2005(Katrina Year) 2011FNamed Storms 9.6 28 16
Named Storm Days 49.1 115.5 80
Hurricanes 5.9 14 9Hurricane Days 24.5 47.5 35Intense Hurricanes 2.3 7 5
Intense Hurricane Days 5.0 7 10
Accumulated Cyclone Energy 96.1 NA 160
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 100% 275% 175%
*Average over the period 1950-2000.Source: Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray, Colorado State University, June 1, 2011. 61
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Most States Fail to Address
Their Vulnerabilities toCatastrophic Coastal Loss
US Property Residual Markets
Remain Under Strain
U.S. Residual Market Exposure to Loss
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p($ Billions)
Source: PIPSO; Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.); http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-2010 .
$281.8
$757.9
$430.5$372.3
$54.7
$150.0
$292.0$244.2$221.3
$419.5
$656.7 $696.4
$771.9$703.0
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
($ Billions)
In the 21-year period between 1990 and 2010, total exposure to loss in theresidual market (FAIR & Beach/Windstorm) Plans has surged from $54.7
billion in 1990 to $757.9 billion in 2010.
HurricaneAndrew
4 FloridaHurricanes
Katrina,Rita andWilma
U.S. Residual Market: Total Policies In-Force
http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-2010http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-2010http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-2010http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-2010http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-2010http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-20108/6/2019 2011 Half-Year Natural Catastrophe Review Jul 12th-2011
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(1990-2010) (000)
Source: PIPSO; Insurance Information Institute; http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-2010 .
931.6
1,785.0
1,458.11,196.5
1,741.7
2,841.4
2,479.4
1,319.7
2,621.32,780.6
1,642.3
2,840.4
2,209.32,203. 9
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
(000)
Hurricane
Andrew
4 FloridaHurricanes
Katrina, Ritaand Wilma
In the 21-year period between 1990 and 2010, the total number of policiesin-force in the residual market (FAIR & Beach/Windstorm) Plans has more
than tripled.
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http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-2010http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-20108/6/2019 2011 Half-Year Natural Catastrophe Review Jul 12th-2011
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www.iii.orgThank you for your time
and your attention! Twitter: twitter.com/bob_hartwig
Insurance Information Institute Online:
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More Information
Press InquiriesTerese RosenthalPhone: 609.243.4339E-mail: [email protected]
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