2011 Half-Year Natural Catastrophe Review Jul 12th-2011

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    Questions and Answers

    Welcome/Introduction Terese Rosenthal

    U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update Carl Hedde

    Global Natural Catastrophe Update Peter Hppe

    Economic Implications of Natural Catastrophe LossesDr. Robert Hartwig

    Agenda

    2

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    U.S. NATURAL CATASTROPHE UPDATE

    Carl Hedde, SVP, Head of Risk AccumulationMunich Reinsurance America, Inc.

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    From 1980 until today all lossevents; for USA and selectedcountries in Europe all lossevents since 1970.

    Retrospectively, all greatdisasters since 1950.

    In addition, all major historicalevents starting from 79 AD

    eruption of Mt. Vesuvius (3,000historical data sets).

    Currently more than 30,000data sets

    4

    The Database Today

    MR NatCat SERVICE One of the worlds largest databases on natural catastrophes

    2011 Munich Re

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    2011 Headlines

    Very active thunderstorm (tornado-hail) season with insured lossesexceeding $16 billion, far above the 2001 to 2010 January Juneaverage thunderstorm loss of $6.4 billion (in 2010 Dollars). It was alsothe deadliest thunderstorm season in over 50 years.

    Extensive severe flooding events in Midwest and Great Plains

    Large, damaging wildfires in Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico.

    Major blizzard and ice storm in Midwest; severe freezing conditions inSouthwest

    Seasonal forecasts indicate active hurricane season; neither El Nioor La Nia conditions are expected to be a factor this year

    U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update

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    As of July 6, 2011 Number of

    Events FatalitiesEstimated OverallLosses (US $m)

    Estimated InsuredLosses (US $m)

    SevereThunderstorm

    43 593 23,573 16,350

    Winter Storm 8 15 1,900 1,425

    Flood 8 15 2,100 in progress

    Earthquake 2 1 105 in progress

    Tropical Cyclone 0 0 0 0

    Wildfire 37 7 125 50

    Natural Disaster Losses in the United StatesFirst Six Months of 2011

    6 2011 Munich Re

    U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update

    Source: MR NatCat SERVICE

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    Natural Disasters in the United States, 1980 2011Number of Events (January June Only)

    Source: MR NatCat SERVICE 7 2011 Munich Re

    Meteorological events(Storm)

    Hydrological events(Flood, massmovement)

    Climatological events (Extreme temperature,drought, forest fire)

    Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami,volcanic eruption)

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    First Six Months 201198 Events

    U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update

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    Meteorological events(Storm)

    Hydrological events(Flood, massmovement)

    Climatological events (Extreme temperature,drought, forest fire)

    Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami,volcanic eruption)

    Natural Disasters in the United States, 1980 2011Number of Events (Annual Totals 1980 2010 vs. First Six Months 2011)

    Source: MR NatCat SERVICE 8 2011 Munich Re

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    2

    51

    8

    37

    U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update

    First Six Months 201198 Events

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    2011: Year of the Tornado

    Pratt City, Alabama

    Joplin, Missouri

    Source: FEMA

    U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update

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    Deadliest tornado year since 1953: 593 fatalities

    Deadliest single tornado since 1947: Joplin, Missouri, 155 fatalities

    Most observed tornadoes in a month: 875, April

    Largest number of tornadoes in a day: 226, April 27Most EF5 Tornados in a year: 6 (tied for first with 1974)

    Five insured billion-dollar outbreaks

    Two thunderstorm outbreaks each caused insured losses of about $5billion

    Late April (Alabama) outbreak is among top 10 largest naturalcatastrophe losses in U.S. history

    U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update

    2011: Year of the Tornado

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    U.S. Thunderstorm Loss TrendsJanuary June only, 1980 - 2011

    Thunderstorm losses for the period January June in 2011 were more than double of the2006-2010 5-year average.

    Source: Property Claims ServiceMR NatCat SERVICE

    First Half 2011$16.4 bn

    U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update

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    Source: Property Claims ServiceMR NatCat SERVICE

    U.S. Thunderstorm Loss TrendsAnnual Totals 1980 2010 vs. First Half 2011

    Average thunderstorm losses have increased fivefold since 1980.

    First Half 2011$16.4 bn

    U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update

    12 2011 Munich Re

    First Half 2011$16.4 bn

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    2011 U.S. Tornado CountU.S. Natural Catastrophe Update

    13 2011 Munich Re

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    Lower Mississippi Flood of 2011

    April 2011

    Source: NASA

    U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update

    14 2011 Munich Re

    http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/50000/50504/missrv_amo_2011125_lrg.jpghttp://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/50000/50504/missrv_amo_2010125_lrg.jpg
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    Other Notable Floods of 2011

    Similar to the triggers of the Mississippi River flood, heavy rains in the northernplains states and the melting of a heavy snowpack in the Rockies resulted insevere flooding along several river systems, including the:

    Missouri River: Numerous breached levees (some intentional to preventflooding in densely populated regions), agriculture and transportationnetworks severely disrupted, Fort Calhoun nuclear power plant threatened,but no damage.

    Souris River: Record flood levels at Minot, North Dakota. Levees wereovertopped by flood waters; an estimated 11,000 residents (25% of Minotspopulation) was evacuated.

    June 2011

    U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update

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    Notable Wildfires in 2011

    Texas: Over 3 million acres burnedin west Texas from 12 major seats offire. Over 200 homes andbusinesses destroyed, $50 millioninsured loss.

    Arizona and New Mexico: Wallowfire largest in AZ history at 538,000acres, Las Conchas fire near LosAlamos, 30 buildings destroyed.

    April June

    Source: NASA

    U.S. Natural Catastrophe Update

    17 2011 Munich Re

    http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/50000/50924/wallow_amo_2011159_lrg.jpghttp://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/50000/50924/wallow_amo_2011159_lrg.jpghttp://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/50000/50924/wallow_amo_2011159_lrg.jpg
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    Number of Acres Burned in Wildfires, 1980 2011 YTDU.S. Natural Catastrophe Update

    Source: Property Claims ServiceMR NatCat SERVICE 2011 Munich Re 18

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    Deadliest DisastersDate Event Area Deaths

    11.3.2011 Earthquake, tsunami Japan 15,500 (still missing: 7,297)

    12/16.1.2011 Landslides, flash floods Brazil 1,350

    22-28.4.2011 Severe storm, tornadoes USA 350

    Costliest Disasters (Overall Losses)Date Event Area Overall losses in US$m

    11.3.2011 Earthquake, tsunami Japan 210,000

    22.2.2011 Earthquake New Zealand 20,000

    22-28.4.2011 Severe storm, tornadoes USA 7,500

    Costliest Disasters (Insured Losses)Date Event Area Insured losses in US$m

    11.3.2011 Earthquake, tsunami Japan ~30.000

    22.2.2011 Earthquake New Zealand >10,000

    22-28.4.2011 Severe storm, tornadoes USA 5,050

    25Source: MR NatCat SERVICE 2011 Munich Re

    Global Natural Catastrophe Update

    Worldwide Natural Disasters 2011Significant Natural Disasters (January June only)

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    Gl b l N l C h U d

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    Insured losses 1980 - 2011 (January June only): US$ 389bn

    Worldwide Natural Disasters 1980 2011Percentage Distribution of Insured Losses Per Continent (January June only)

    27

    Continent Insured losses [US$ m] Jan June only

    Africa 1,000America 237,200Asia 45,100Australia/Oceania 25,100Europe 80,900

    Source: MR NatCat SERVICE 2011 Munich Re

    Global Natural Catastrophe Update

    58%

    2%

    21%

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    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    Worldwide Natural Disasters 1980 2011Number of Events (January June only)

    Source: MR NatCat SERVICE 28 2011 Munich Re

    Meteorological events(Storm)

    Hydrological events(Flood, massmovement)

    Climatological events (Extreme temperature,drought, forest fire)

    Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami,volcanic eruption)

    First Six Months 2011355 Events

    Global Natural Catastrophe Update

    Gl b l N t l C t t h U d t

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    U S $ b n

    Worldwide Natural Disasters 1980 2011Overall and Insured Losses

    29

    Losses in 2011: Overall = US$ 265bn ; Insured = US$ 60bn

    Overall losses (in 2011 values) Insured losses (in 2011 values)

    Source: MR NatCat SERVICE 2011 Munich Re

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    Loss figures 2011January June only

    Global Natural Catastrophe Update

    Global Natural Catastrophe Update

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    2011(Jan June)

    2010(Jan June)

    Average ofthe last 10

    years 2001-2010

    (Jan June)

    Average ofthe last 30

    years 1981-2010

    (Jan June)

    Top Year1981 -2010

    (Jan June)

    Number of events 355 480 390 310 2007

    Overall losses inUS$m(original values)

    265,000 97,200 47,400 36,400 1995(EQ Kobe)

    Insured losses inUS$m(original values )

    60,000 26,900 12,100 8,200 1994(EQ, US

    Northridge)

    Fatalities 19,380 230,300 52,900 42,700 2010(EQ Haiti)

    Natural Catastrophes, 2011Overview and comparison with previous years

    30Source: MR NatCat SERVICE 2011 Munich Re

    Global Natural Catastrophe Update

    Global Natural Catastrophe Update

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    Worldwide Natural Disasters 2011January June only

    EarthquakeNew Zealand

    EarthquakeJapan

    Tornadoes,Wildfires, Floods

    US

    FloodsAustralia

    Three strong earthquakes in 9months

    High losses due to soilliquefaction

    Strongest EQ in Japan Mw 9.0

    Spring time brought extremeweather and climate events

    Deadliest tornadooutbreak since 1925 in

    the US ( 1. Half year : 589)

    The series of floods 2010/11were the most devastating inmodern Australian history

    Highest sea surfacetemperature off theAustralian coastline

    31Source: MR NatCat SERVICE 2011 Munich Re

    Global Natural Catastrophe Update

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    Global Natural Catastrophe Update

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    Date Affected Area Fatalities1920 China 273,4001976 China 242,800

    2010 Haiti 222,5702004 Indonesia 220,000

    1923 Japan 142,800

    Date Affected

    Area

    Overall losses (US$m,

    original values)2011 Japan 210,000

    1995 Japan 100,000

    2008 China 85,000

    1994 USA 44,000

    2010 Chile 30,000

    Deadliest/Costliest Earthquakes 1900 June 2011

    34Source: MR NatCat SERVICE 2011 Munich Re

    Global Natural Catastrophe Update

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    Economic & Financial

    Implications of NaturalCatastrophe LossesFirst Half 2011

    Insurance Information InstituteJuly 12, 2011

    Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist

    Insurance Information Institute

    110 William Street

    New York, NY 10038Tel: 212.346.5520 Cell: 917.453.1885 [email protected] www.iii.org

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    Top 12 (13?) Most Costly Disasters

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    38

    Top 12 (13?) Most Costly Disastersin U.S. History

    (Insured Losses, 2010 Dollars, $ Billions)

    *Losses will actually be broken down into several events as determined by PCS.Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments.

    $11.5 $12.8$14.0

    $17.5$22.6 $23.1

    $45.8

    $8.6$8.2$6.7$6.3$5.3$4.3

    $0

    $5$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50

    Jeanne(2004)

    Frances(2004)

    Rita(2005)

    Hugo(1989)

    Ivan(2004)

    Charley(2004)

    Wilma(2005)

    Ike(2008)

    SpringTornadoes*

    (2011)

    Northridge(1994)

    Andrew(1992)

    9/11 Attack(2001)

    Katrina(2005)

    Taken as a single event, theSpring 2011 tornado season

    would likely become 5 th costliest

    event in US insurance history

    Insurers Making a Difference in

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    Insurers Making a Difference inImpacted Communities

    Source: Insurance Information Institute 39

    Destroyed home inTuscaloosa. Insurerswill pay some 165,000

    claims totaling $2 billionin the Tuscaloosa/

    Birmingham areas alone.

    Presentation of a checkto Tuscaloosa MayorWalt Maddox to theTuscaloosa Storm

    Recovery Fund

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    P/C Net Income After Taxes

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    P/C Net Income After Taxes19912011:Q1 ($ Millions)

    $ 1 4

    , 1 7 8

    $ 5

    , 8 4 0

    $ 1 9

    , 3 1 6

    $ 1 0

    , 8 7 0

    $ 2 0

    , 5 9 8

    $ 2 4

    , 4 0 4 $

    3 6

    , 8 1 9

    $ 3 0

    , 7 7 3

    $ 2 1

    , 8 6 5

    $ 3

    , 0 4 6

    $ 3 0

    , 0 2

    9

    $ 6 2

    , 4 9 6

    $ 3

    , 0 4 3

    $ 3 4

    , 6 7 0

    $ 7

    , 8 0 7

    $ 2 8

    , 6 7

    2

    -$6,970

    $ 6 5

    , 7 7 7

    $ 4 4

    , 1 5 5

    $ 2 0

    , 5 5 9

    $ 3 8

    , 5 0 1

    -$10,000

    $0

    $10,000

    $20,000

    $30,000

    $40,000

    $50,000

    $60,000

    $70,000

    $80,000

    91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11*

    2005 ROE*= 9.6%2006 ROE = 12.7%2007 ROE = 10.9%2008 ROE = 0.3%2009 ROAS 1 = 5.9%2010 ROAS = 6.5%2011:Q1 ROAS = 5.6%

    P-C Industry 2011:Q1 profits weredown 12.2% to $7.8B vs. $8.9B in2010:Q1, as underwriting results

    deteriorated

    * ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 6.5% ROAS for

    2011:Q1, 7.5% for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009.Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute 46

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    Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C

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    -5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    7 5

    7 6

    7 7

    7 8

    7 9

    8 0

    8 1

    8 2

    8 3

    8 4

    8 5

    8 6

    8 7

    8 8

    8 9

    9 0

    9 1

    9 2

    9 3

    9 4

    9 5

    9 6

    9 7

    9 8

    9 9

    0 0

    0 1

    0 2

    0 3

    0 4

    0 5

    0 6

    0 7

    0 8

    0 9

    1 0

    1 1 *

    Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/CInsurance Industry, 1975 2011*

    *Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs are I.I.I. estimates. 2011 figure is an estimate based on annualized ROAS for Q1 data.

    Note: Data for 2008-2011 exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers.Source: Insurance Information Institute; NAIC, ISO, A.M. Best.

    1977:19.0% 1987:17.3%

    1997:11.6% 2007:12.3%

    1984: 1.8% 1992: 4.5% 2001: -1.2%

    10 Years

    2011:6.1%*

    History suggests next ROE

    peak will be in 2016-2017

    ROE

    1975: 2.4%

    48

    Soft Market Persisted in 2010 but

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    49

    -5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    7 1

    7 2

    7 3

    7 4

    7 5

    7 6

    7 7

    7 8

    7 9

    8 0

    8 1

    8 2

    8 3

    8 4

    8 5

    8 6

    8 7

    8 8

    8 9

    9 0

    9 1

    9 2

    9 3

    9 4

    9 5

    9 6

    9 7

    9 8

    9 9

    0 0

    0 1

    0 2

    0 3

    0 4

    0 5

    0 6

    0 7

    0 8

    0 9

    1 0

    1 1 *

    Soft Market Persisted in 2010 butGrowth Returned: More in 2011?(Percent)

    1975-78 1984-87 2000-03

    *2011 figure is an estimate based on Q1 data.

    Shaded areas denote hard market periodsSources: A.M. Best (historical and forecast), ISO, Insurance Information Institute.

    Net Written Premiums Fell0.7% in 2007 (First Decline

    Since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008,and 4.2% in 2009, the First 3-Year Decline Since 1930-33.

    NWP was up0.9% in 2010

    2011:Q1growth was+3.5%; FirstQ1 growthsince 2007

    P/C Net Premiums Written: % Change,

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    50

    P/C Net Premiums Written: % Change,Quarter vs. Year-Prior Quarter

    Sources: ISO, Insurance Information Institute.

    Finally! Back-to-back quarters of net written premium growth(vs. the same quarter, prior year)

    1 0

    . 2 %

    1 5

    . 1 % 1 6 . 8 %

    1 6 . 7 %

    1 2

    . 5 %

    1 0

    . 1 %

    9 . 7

    %

    7 . 8

    %

    7 . 2

    %

    5 . 6

    %

    2 . 9 % 5

    . 5 %

    - 4 . 6

    %

    - 4 . 1

    %

    - 5

    . 8 %

    - 1 . 6

    %

    1 0

    . 3 %

    1 0

    . 2 % 1

    3 . 4

    %

    6 . 6

    %

    - 1 . 6

    %

    2 . 1 %

    0 . 0

    %

    - 1 . 9

    %

    0 . 5

    %

    - 1 . 8

    % - 0 . 7

    %

    - 4 . 4

    % - 3 . 7

    %

    - 5 . 3

    %

    - 5 . 2

    %- 1 . 4

    %

    - 1 . 3

    %

    1 . 3 % 2 . 3

    %

    1 . 3 % 3

    . 5 %

    -10%

    -5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    2 0 0 2 : Q 1

    2 0 0 2 : Q 2

    2 0 0 2 : Q 3

    2 0 0 2 : Q 4

    2 0 0 3 : Q 1

    2 0 0 3 : Q 2

    2 0 0 3 : Q 3

    2 0 0 3 : Q 4

    2 0 0 4 : Q 1

    2 0 0 4 : Q 2

    2 0 0 4 : Q 3

    2 0 0 4 : Q 4

    2 0 0 5 : Q 1

    2 0 0 5 : Q 2

    2 0 0 5 : Q 3

    2 0 0 5 : Q 4

    2 0 0 6 : Q 1

    2 0 0 6 : Q 2

    2 0 0 6 : Q 3

    2 0 0 6 : Q 4

    2 0 0 7 : Q 1

    2 0 0 7 : Q 2

    2 0 0 7 : Q 3

    2 0 0 7 : Q 4

    2 0 0 8 : Q 1

    2 0 0 8 : Q 2

    2 0 0 8 : Q 3

    2 0 0 8 : Q 4

    2 0 0 9 : Q 1

    2 0 0 9 : Q 2

    2 0 0 9 : Q 3

    2 0 0 9 : Q 4

    2 0 1 0 : Q 1

    2 0 1 0 : Q 2

    2 0 1 0 : Q 3

    2 0 1 0 : Q 4

    2 0 1 1 : Q 1

    The long-awaited uptick. In2011:Q1 occurring in

    personal linespredominating cos. (+3.8%)and commercial lines

    predominating cos. (+3.5%)

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    P/C I I i 1969 2010

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    P/C Insurer Impairments, 19692010

    8

    1 5

    1 2

    7

    1 1

    9

    3 4

    9

    1 3

    1 2

    1 9

    9

    1 6

    1 4

    1 3

    3 6

    4 9

    3 1 3

    4

    5 0

    4 8

    5 5

    6 0

    5 8

    4 1

    2 9

    1 6

    1 2

    3 1

    1 8 1

    9

    4 9 5

    0

    4 7

    3 5

    1 8

    1 4 1

    5 1 6 1

    8

    1 1

    5

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    6 9

    7 0

    7 1

    7 2

    7 3

    7 4

    7 5

    7 6

    7 7

    7 8

    7 9

    8 0

    8 1

    8 2

    8 3

    8 4

    8 5

    8 6

    8 7

    8 8

    8 9

    9 0

    9 1

    9 2

    9 3

    9 4

    9 5

    9 6

    9 7

    9 8

    9 9

    0 0

    0 1

    0 2

    0 3

    0 4

    0 5

    0 6

    0 7

    0 8

    0 9

    1 0

    Source: A.M. Best Special Report 1969-2010 Impairment Review, June 21, 2010; Insurance Information Institute.

    The Number of Impairments Varies Significantly Over the P/C InsuranceCycle, With Peaks Occurring Well into Hard Markets

    8 of the 18 in 2009 were smallFlorida carriers. Total also

    includes a few title insurers.

    54

    Reasons for US P/C Insurer

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    55

    Reasons for US P/C InsurerImpairments, 19692010

    3.6%4.0%

    8.6%

    7.3%

    7.8%

    7.1%

    7.8%13.6%

    40.3%

    Source: A.M. Best: 1969-2010 Impairment Review , Special Report, April 2011.

    Historically, Catastrophe Losses Account for Only a Small Share ofP-C Insurer Impairments.

    Deficient Loss Reserves/ Inadequate Pricing

    Reinsurance Failure

    Rapid GrowthAlleged Fraud

    Catastrophe Losses

    Affiliate Impairment

    Investment Problems(Overstatement of Assets)

    Misc.

    Sig. Change in Business

    Top 10 Lines of Business for US P/C

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    56

    pImpaired Insurers, 20002010

    2.0%4.4%

    4.8%

    6.5%

    6.9%

    7.7%

    8.1%

    10.9%

    22.2%

    26.6%

    Source: A.M. Best: 1969-2010 Impairment Review , Special Report, April 2011.

    Catastrophe Exposed Lines Account for a Relatively Small Share of the

    Premium Volume of Impaired Insurers Over the Past Decade

    Workers Comp

    Financial Guaranty

    Pvt. Passenger Auto

    Homeowners

    Commercial Multiperil

    Commercial Auto Liability

    Other Liability

    Med Mal

    SuretyTitle

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    SURPLUS/CAPITAL/CAPACITY

    57

    Have Large Global Losses ReducedCapacity in the Industry, Setting

    the Stage for a Market Turn?

    US Policyholder Surplus:

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    $0$50

    $100$150$200$250$300

    $350$400$450$500$550$600

    75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11*

    y p19752011*

    * As of 3/31/11.Source: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute.

    Surplus is a measure ofunderwriting capacity. It is

    analogous to OwnersEquity or Net Worth in

    non-insurance

    organizations

    ($ Billions)

    The Premium-to-Surplus Ratio Stood at $0.77:$1 as of3/31/11, A Near Record Low (at Least in Recent History)**

    Surplus as of 3/31/11 was a record $564.7B, upfrom $437.1B at the crisis trough at 3/31/09. Prior

    peak was $521.8 as of 9/30/07. Surplus as of 3/31/11was 8.2% above 2007 peak; Crisis trough was as of

    3/31/09 16.2% below 2007 peak.

    58

    Policyholder Surplus,

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    59

    y p ,2006:Q42011:Q1

    Sources: ISO, A.M .Best.

    ($ Billions)

    $487.1

    $496.6

    $512.8$521.8

    $478.5

    $455.6

    $437.1

    $463.0

    $490.8

    $511.5

    $540.7$530.5

    $544.8$556.9

    $564.7

    $505.0$515.6$517.9

    $420

    $440

    $460

    $480

    $500

    $520

    $540

    $560

    $580

    06:Q4 07:Q1 07:Q2 07:Q3 07:Q4 08:Q1 08:Q2 08:Q3 08:Q4 09:Q1 09:Q2 09:Q3 09:Q4 10:Q1 10:Q2 10:Q3 10:Q4 11:Q1

    2007:Q3Previous Surplus Peak

    Quarterly Surplus Changes Since 2007:Q3 Peak

    09:Q1: -$84.7B (-16.2%) 09:Q2: -$58.8B (-11.2%)09:Q3: -$31.0B (-5.9%)09:Q4: -$10.3B (-2.0%)

    10:Q1: +$18.9B (+3.6%)10:Q2: +$8.7B (+1.7%)10:Q3: +$23.0B (+4.4%)10:Q4: +$35.1B (+6.7%)11:Q4: +$42.9B (+8.2%)

    Surplus set a new

    record in 2011:Q1*

    *Includes $22.5B of paid-incapital from a holdingcompany parent for oneinsurers investment in anon-insurance business inearly 2010.

    The Industry now has $1 ofsurplus for every $0.77 of

    NPWthe strongest claims-paying status in its history.

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    Above Average Activity,More Landfalls Expected

    Outlook for the 2011 Atlantic

    Hurricane Season

    Outlook for 2011 Hurricane Season:

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    75% More Active Than Average

    Average* 2005(Katrina Year) 2011FNamed Storms 9.6 28 16

    Named Storm Days 49.1 115.5 80

    Hurricanes 5.9 14 9Hurricane Days 24.5 47.5 35Intense Hurricanes 2.3 7 5

    Intense Hurricane Days 5.0 7 10

    Accumulated Cyclone Energy 96.1 NA 160

    Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 100% 275% 175%

    *Average over the period 1950-2000.Source: Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray, Colorado State University, June 1, 2011. 61

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    63

    Most States Fail to Address

    Their Vulnerabilities toCatastrophic Coastal Loss

    US Property Residual Markets

    Remain Under Strain

    U.S. Residual Market Exposure to Loss

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    64

    p($ Billions)

    Source: PIPSO; Insurance Information Institute (I.I.I.); http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-2010 .

    $281.8

    $757.9

    $430.5$372.3

    $54.7

    $150.0

    $292.0$244.2$221.3

    $419.5

    $656.7 $696.4

    $771.9$703.0

    $0

    $100

    $200

    $300

    $400

    $500

    $600

    $700

    $800

    $900

    1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    ($ Billions)

    In the 21-year period between 1990 and 2010, total exposure to loss in theresidual market (FAIR & Beach/Windstorm) Plans has surged from $54.7

    billion in 1990 to $757.9 billion in 2010.

    HurricaneAndrew

    4 FloridaHurricanes

    Katrina,Rita andWilma

    U.S. Residual Market: Total Policies In-Force

    http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-2010http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-2010http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-2010http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-2010http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-2010http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-2010
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    (1990-2010) (000)

    Source: PIPSO; Insurance Information Institute; http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-2010 .

    931.6

    1,785.0

    1,458.11,196.5

    1,741.7

    2,841.4

    2,479.4

    1,319.7

    2,621.32,780.6

    1,642.3

    2,840.4

    2,209.32,203. 9

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    (000)

    Hurricane

    Andrew

    4 FloridaHurricanes

    Katrina, Ritaand Wilma

    In the 21-year period between 1990 and 2010, the total number of policiesin-force in the residual market (FAIR & Beach/Windstorm) Plans has more

    than tripled.

    65

    http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-2010http://www.iii.org/pr/last-resort-2010
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    www.iii.orgThank you for your time

    and your attention! Twitter: twitter.com/bob_hartwig

    Insurance Information Institute Online:

    66

    More Information

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    More Information

    Press InquiriesTerese RosenthalPhone: 609.243.4339E-mail: [email protected]

    67

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