Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Reportthoughtleadership.aonbenfield.com/ThoughtLeadership/Documents/… · 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks 20 2011 Monthly Catastrophe

Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe ReportImpact Forecasting — 2011

Executive Summary: 2011’s Natural Disaster Events 3

2011 Climate Review 72011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review 92011 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Review 102011 Western Pacific Typhoon Season Review 112011 Indian Ocean and Southern Pacific Cyclone Season Review 122011 United States Tornado Season Review 132011 United States Brushfire Season Review 14

2012 Climate and Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts 15Temperature and Precipitation Outlook: January – March 2012 16Temperature and Precipitation Outlook: March – May 2012 17Historical Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions 182012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks 20

2011 Monthly Catastrophe Review 21United States 21Remainder of North America (Canada, Mexico, Bermuda, Caribbean Islands) 34South America 40Europe 45Africa 50Asia 53Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific Islands) 68

Appendix A: Tropical System Frequency Correlations 72Atlantic Ocean Basin (ENSO) 72Eastern Pacific Ocean Basin (ENSO) 73Western Pacific Ocean Basin (ENSO) 74Southern Hemisphere (ENSO) 75

Appendix B: Historic Global Natural Disaster Events (1980-2011) 76Top 10 Economic Loss Events 76Top 10 Insured Loss Events 76Top 10 Fatality Events 77

Contacts 78

About Impact Forecasting 79

About Aon Benfield 79

Contents

3

Impact Forecasting

Executive Summary: 2011’s Natural Disaster EventsThe world endured a very active year in 2011, marked by a series of devastating

natural disaster events. Japan suffered from a historic earthquake and tsunami that

left nearly 16,000 people dead. The greater Christchurch metropolitan region in

New Zealand faced a major rebuilding effort after being struck by two separate

earthquakes. Extraordinary severe weather outbreaks in the United States spawned

a record number of tornadoes, damaging winds and destructive hail. Major

flooding covered vast areas of Southeast Asia, while floods also impacted parts of

Australia, North America and South America. Hurricane Irene made landfall in the

United States, the first U.S. landfalling hurricane since 2008. Ten additional tropical

cyclone landfalls occurred worldwide. 2011 was the eleventh warmest year in

history since temperature data began being recorded in 1880.

Global natural disaster activity in 2011 produced 253 separate events that caused significant impacts to various parts of the world. The 253 events (defined as natural meteorological or climatological occurrences that caused noteworthy insurance losses, economic losses, human casualties or a large humanitarian impact) aggregated to an economic loss of USD435 billion and insured losses of USD107 billion. The economic losses in 2011 make it the costliest natural disaster year on record. The insured losses incurred in 2011 make it the second costliest year on record – second only to 2005’s USD120 billion, which was dominated by the USD90 billion in losses causedby major hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

Asia, the United States and Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific Islands) endured the majority of insured losses in 2011 due to historic earthquakes in Asia and Oceania, widespread springtime U.S. severe weather, and flooding in Asia and Oceania. The economic losses were dominated by the Japan earthquake and tsunami, which became the costliest economic natural disaster event on record. Extensive flooding in Thailand, two earthquake strikes in New Zealand and numerous severe weather outbreaks in the United States each led to significant economic losses as well.

Of the top 10 insured natural catastrophe events in 2011, four were severe weather events (tornadoes, hail or damaging winds), three were earthquake events, two were flood events and one was a tropical cyclone event. The costliest insured loss and economic loss event of the year was the Japan earthquake and tsunami, which caused an estimated USD35 billion in insured losses and approximately USD210 billion in economic losses. The magnitude-9.0 earthquake and subsequent tsunami occurred on March 11th, and led to the deaths of at least 15,844 people in Japan alone.

Exhibit 1 shows the Top 10 Insured Loss Events in 2011 that caused a combined USD86.25 billion in losses, or nearly 81 percent of the year’s insured loss total. The remaining USD20.90 billion was a combination of losses from winter weather, severe weather, flooding, tropical cyclones, earthquakes, drought, volcano eruptions and wildfires.

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Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report

The overall number of fatalities recorded in 2011 as a result of natural disasters was approximately 24,500, with at least eight separate events killing a minimum of 250 people. The 2011 total was well below the number seen in 2010, when an estimated 303,000 people lost their lives. The 2010 number was elevated due to the roughly 230,000 people that were killed in the Haiti earthquake and an additional 56,000 people who died in Russia as a result of a dangerous heat wave and wildfires.

The most deadly event in 2011 was the March 11th Japan earthquake and tsunami event. The main tremor and subsequent tsunami killed at least 15,844 people in Japan (3,451 others officially remained listed as missing) and also caused dozens of additional fatalities elsewhere around the outer rim of the Pacific Ocean. This event became the fifth deadliest earthquake event in Japan’s recorded history, only surpassed by temblors which struck in 1923, 1896, 1707 and 1293. Exhibit 2 shows the top 10 human fatality events in 2011, as caused by natural disasters.

Exhibit 1: Top 10 Insured Loss Events in 2011

Event Date Event Name Or Type Event Location# Of

Deaths# Of Structures/

ClaimsEconomic Loss

Estimates (USD)Insured Loss

Estimates (USD)

3/11 Earthquake Japan 15,844 1,100,000 210.00 billion 35.00 billion

2/22 Earthquake New Zealand 182 156,313 *30.00 billion 13.50 billion

7/25-11/30 Flooding Thailand 790 4,000,000 45.00 billion 10.78 billion

4/22-4/28 Severe Weather U.S. (Southeast, Plains, Midwest) 344 700,000 10.20 billion 7.30 billion

5/21-5/27 Severe Weather U.S. (Plains, Midwest, Southeast) 181 750,000 9.10 billion 6.75 billion

8/22-8/30 HU Irene U.S., Bahamas, Caribbean Isl. 46 835,000 8.55 billion 5.00 billion

12/21-1/14 Flooding Australia (Queensland) 36 58,463 30.00 billion 2.42 billion

4/3-4/5 Severe Weather U.S. (Midwest, Southeast, Plains) 9 225,000 2.80 billion 2.00 billion

6/13 Earthquake New Zealand 1 53,963 *30.00 billion 1.80 billion

4/14-4/16 Severe Weather U.S. (Plains, Southeast, Midwest) 48 150,000 2.50 billion 1.70 billion

All Other Events 86.69 billion 20.90 billion

Totals 434.84 billion 107.15 billion

*The New Zealand government has only released a combined USD30 billion economic loss total for the September 2010, February 2011 and June 2011 EQ events.

Exhibit 2: Top 10 Human Fatality Events in 2011

Event Date Event Name Or Type Event Location # Of Deaths# Of Structures/

ClaimsEconomic Loss

Estimates (USD)

3/11 Earthquake Japan 15,844 1,100,000 210.00 billion

12/16-12/17 TS Washi Philippines 1,257 48,499 31.70 million

1/10-1/14 Flooding Brazil 903 21,500 1.20 billion

7/29-11/30 Flooding Thailand 790 4,000,000 45.00 billion

10/23 Earthquake Turkey 604 15,000 750.00 million

8/12-9/30 Flooding Pakistan 520 1,600,000 2.00 billion

4/22-4/28 Severe Weather Southeast, Plains, Midwest 344 700,000 10.20 billion

9/10-10/31 Flooding Cambodia 250 250,000 521.00 million

6/1-6/24 Flooding China 239 500,000 6.65 billion

10/19-10/21 TS 02B Myanmar 215 8,000 1.70 million

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Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 3: Top 10 Structural Damage and Filed Claim Events in 2011


ClaimsEconomic Loss

Estimates (USD)

7/29-11/30 Flooding Thailand 790 4,000,000 45.00 billion

8/12-9/30 Flooding Pakistan 520 1,600,000 2.00 billion

3/11 Earthquake Japan 15,844 1,100,000 210.00 billion

8/22-8/30 HU Irene U.S., Bahamas, Caribbean Isl. 46 835,000 8.55 billion

5/21-5/27 Severe Weather Plains, Midwest, Southeast 181 750,000 9.10 billion

4/22-4/28 Severe Weather Southeast, Plains, Midwest 344 700,000 10.20 billion

3/21-4/8 Flooding Thailand 61 609,967 880.00 million

6/1-6/24 Flooding China 239 500,000 6.65 billion

1/1-5/31 Flooding Colombia 116 375,000 5.85 billion

7/27-7/30 TY Nock-ten Philippines, China, Vietnam 94 340,000 126.00 million

Exhibit 3 shows the top 10 catastrophe events in terms of structures damaged or destroyed in 2011.

The most destructive and damaging event in 2011 was the widespread flooding that affected much of Thailand between July and November. The floods left at least 790 people dead and damaged or destroyed more than four million homes, manufacturing facilities, businesses and other structures. The economic and insured losses sustained during the floods made this the costliest natural disaster event in Southeast Asia’s history. Other substantial events which led to more than one million structures sustaining damage or more than one million claims being filed was a flood event in Pakistan and the Japan earthquake and tsunami. In Pakistan, this marks the second year in a row where more than one million homes were damaged or destroyed as a result of catastrophic flooding.

2011 produced 37 separate global natural disaster events that had economic losses that exceeded USD1 billion. Of the 37 billion-dollar economic loss events, at least 10 were in excess of USD5 billion. When comparing to 2010, the number of billion-dollar events in 2011 was actually 16 percent less than the 43 seen the year before. However, the ten events with economic losses beyond USD5 billion was one more than the nine seen in 2010.

The United States set an official record for the number of billion-dollar economic loss events in 2011. According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), at least 12 events officially broke the billion-dollar threshold — surpassing the previous record (9) set in 2008. However, it should be noted that data collected for this report suggests that as many as 17 events surpassed USD1 billion in economic losses during 2011 in the U.S. Of the 17 events in 2011, more than half (9) were severe weather-related. The other eight were caused by flooding (3), winter weather (2), tropical cyclones (2) and drought/wildfires (1).

Outside of the United States, the 20 other billion-dollar economic loss events were found in Asia (10), Oceania (4), Europe (2) and South America (2). Two additional events occurred in North America.

The costliest individual global economic events by natural disaster type in 2011 were:

• Earthquake: Japan (March 11) — USD210 billion

• Flooding: Thailand (July - November) — USD45 billion

• Severe Weather: United States (April 22-28) — USD10.2 billion

• Tropical Cyclone: United States, Bahamas, Caribbean Islands (August 22-30) — USD8.55 billion

• Winter Weather: United States (October 28-30) — USD3 billion

• Drought/Wildfires: United States (January – December) — USD10 billion

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Of the 37 global economic loss events, 17 had insured losses greater than USD1 billion in 2011, representing a 70 percent increase from the 10 events that occurred at or above the USD1 billion threshold in 2010. Of the 17 billion-dollar insured loss events in 2011, at least five were above USD5 billion. There was only one such insured loss event in 2010, which was the Chile earthquake. 2005 remains the world’s costliest year from the perspective of insured losses, primarily due to the United States enduring three landfalling major hurricanes (Katrina, Rita and Wilma).

The United States saw nine separate billion-dollar insured loss events in 2011, more than doubling the four experienced during 2010. Of the nine events, six alone were caused by severe weather. The overall total amount of insured losses that were attributed to convective storms set an all-time record in the U.S. The other three billion-dollar insured events in the U.S. included Hurricane Irene, flooding along the Mississippi River Basin and a late-January/early-February winter storm.

Outside of the United States, the eight other billion-dollar insured loss events included four in Oceania, three in Asia and one in Europe. The losses outside of the U.S. were dominated by the Japan earthquake and tsunami event, which became the second costliest insured loss event in world history (second only to Hurricane Katrina). New Zealand sustained its costliest insured loss events in history when two earthquakes struck the greater Christchurch metropolitan region in February and June. The other five billion-dollar insured loss events were Cyclone Yasi’s landfall in Queensland, Australia, a flooding event in Queensland, Australia, the historic flooding in Thailand, Typhoon Roke’s landfall in Japan and significant flooding in southern France and northern Italy.

Exhibit 4: Total Economic and Insured Losses by Percentage in 2011

Severe Weather

Flooding

Earthquake

Winter Weather

Other

Drought/Wildfire

Tropical Cyclone

59%24%

8%

4% 3%

2% 0%

48%

16%

24%

8%3%

1% 0%

Economic Losses Insured Losses

Exhibit 4 shows the breakdown of economic and insured losses (by percentage) as separated by natural disaster type.

7

Impact Forecasting

Various ocean oscillations often influence the amount of warming or cooling that takes place in a given year. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is a warming or cooling of the waters across the central Pacific, leading to a drastic change in the orientation of the upper atmospheric storm track. Warming periods are noted as El Niño cycles, while cooling periods are known as La Niña cycles. 2011 started with a moderate La Niña phase that developed in July 2010. The La Niña phase gradually weakened during the first few months of 2011 after reaching peak intensity during the months of October, November and December 2010. As the weakening continued, a transition to an ENSO-neutral phase occurred in May. The neutral phase maintained for the majority of the summer, before signs of a return to La Niña began in September. NOAA officially declared the return of La Niña in early September, while forecasting the cycle to strengthen and maintain through the upcoming winter season. The Niño-3.4 Index, which measures the temperature of the ocean waters in the central Pacific, is used to determine ENSO cycles.

2011 was the sixth consecutive year with below average tropical cyclone development across all global basins, with only 39 total hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones (sustained winds of at least 74 mph (119 kph)), 21 major storms (Category 3 or higher with sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) and 11 landfalling hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones. Based on the 25-year average, approximately 47 hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones typically develop—24 of which strengthen to at or above Category 3 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. On average, approximately 18 hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones make landfall across the world. 2011 tied 1988 as having the third-lowest total of named storms over the last 25 years with 76. The 25-year average is approximately 87.

2011 was the 34th consecutive year of above average global temperatures. Using data provided by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) through November, 2011 combined land and ocean temperatures for the earth averaged nearly 0.52°C (0.94°F) above the long-term mean, making 2011 the eleventh warmest year ever recorded since official data on global temperatures began being kept back in 1880. The year 2010 remains the warmest year on record, when the combined global temperature reached 0.64°C (1.15°F) above average. The last below-average year for the globe was recorded in 1976, when global temperatures registered 0.09°C (0.16°F) below average.

Exhibit 5: Global Land and Ocean Temperature Anomalies: 1900-2011

Tem

per

atur

e D

epar

ture

from

Ave

rag

e (º

C)

-1.0-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

Year

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

2011 Climate Review

8


Exhibit 6: Global Tropical System Activity (>74 mph) over the Last 25 Years

Exhibit 7: 2011 Regional Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Activity Frequency Compared to 25-Year Average Values

Region All Named Storms (>39 mph)

All Tropical Activity (>74 mph)

Category 3+ Tropical Activity (>111 mph)

Landfalling Tropical Activity (>74 mph)

Average 2011 % Average 2011 % Average 2011 % Average 2011 %

Atlantic/Caribbean 13.2 19 44% 6.9 7 2% 3.0 3 0% 3.0 1 -67%

East Pacific 15.5 11 -29% 8.5 10 18% 4.2 6 43% 1.3 1 -22%

West Pacific 26.0 20 -23% 16.6 10 -40% 9.2 7 -24% 9.2 6 -35%

Indian/South Pacific 32.4 26 -20% 15.4 12 -22% 7.8 5 -36% 4.2 3 -29%

Global 87.1 76 -13% 47.4 39 -18% 24.2 21 -13% 17.7 11 -38%

The following sections detail each region’s tropical system production in 2011 compared to normal and the notable storms that developed and adversely affected countries bordered by these regions.

Average = 47.4

Global Tropical Systems (>74 mph)

Trop

ical

Sys

tem

s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990198919881987

Year

9

Impact Forecasting

2011’s Atlantic Hurricane Season was very active, tying 1887, 1995 and 2010 as the third-busiest year on record in terms of the number of named storms that developed. When compared to a 25-year average of 13.2 named storms, 2011 produced 44 percent more than normal, with 19 named storms occurring between June and November. Of these 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes developed during the season which was right on par with the average of 6.9 hurricanes. 2005 remains the year with the most hurricanes when 15 occurred. Three hurricanes became major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher), which fell directly in line with the 25-year average of 3.0. Only one hurricane made landfall across the Caribbean and the United States, which is below the average of 3.0. 2011 marks the sixth consecutive year in which the United States did not see a landfalling major hurricane.

2011’s Atlantic Hurricane Season was influenced by neutral conditions from the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and also the late season return of a weak La Niña. La Niña promotes favorable conditions in the upper atmosphere for tropical development. Warm ocean surface temperatures also promoted development of tropical systems across the Atlantic Ocean Basin. See Appendix A for information on hurricane frequency as it relates to the ENSO cycle.

The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season began with eight consecutive tropical storms, becoming the first year in history (since official records began in 1851) to see that many systems develop without reaching hurricane-strength. Irene became the first hurricane of the season, passing through the eastern Caribbean before affecting the Bahamas as a Category 3 storm. The hurricane weakened before making the first of three U.S. landfalls in North Carolina. Katia was the season’s strongest storm, reaching Category 4 strength but it never posed any threat to land. Hurricanes Maria and Ophelia affected parts of the Canadian Maritimes, but lost tropical characteristics upon their arrival. Hurricane Rina reached Category 2 strength but weakened to a tropical storm before making landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. In its post-season analysis, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Storm Nate to hurricane status.

Exhibit 8: Atlantic Hurricanes over the Last 25 Years

Average = 6.9

Atlantic Hurricanes

Hur

rica

nes

0

5

10

15

20

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990198919881987

Year

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review

10


2011 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Review

Exhibit 9: Eastern Pacific Hurricanes over the Last 25 Years

Average = 8.5

Eastern Pacific Hurricanes

Hur

rica

nes

0

5

10

15

20

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990198919881987

Year

2011’s Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season was rather quiet, with only 11 named storms or 29 percent below the average of 15.5 named storms. However, of the 11 named storms, 10 became hurricanes. This is 19 percent above the 25-year average of 8.4. The total is also the highest number of hurricanes produced in the Eastern Pacific Ocean Basin since 2006, when 11 developed. Six of 2011’s hurricanes strengthened to major hurricane status, 43 percent above the 25-year average of 4.2. Only one hurricane made landfall during the season.

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) again played a role in this year’s activity. Because of increased upwelling of cold waters in the western and central Pacific waters due to a transition from neutral conditions to a La Niña phase of ENSO, tropical system production was adversely affected during the latter half of the season. See Appendix A for information on hurricane frequency as it relates to the ENSO cycle.

The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season started with the formation of five consecutive hurricanes, with three of the five reaching Category 4 strength. Of the five hurricanes, only Beatriz (with Category 1 winds) grazed the Mexican coast but did not officially come ashore. Hurricane Dora, which developed in late July, was the basin’s strongest of the season with maximum sustained winds reaching just below Category 5 strength at 155 mph (250 kph). The system remained in the open waters of the Pacific. Hurricanes Greg, Hillary, Irwin and Kenneth also developed but remained well offshore. The lone landfalling hurricane of the season was Hurricane Jova, which came ashore in western Mexico as a Category 2 system in early October. The most notable tropical system of the season, however, was Tropical Depression 12-E. The cyclone came ashore in southern Mexico with minimal sustained winds, but the system’s slow-moving remnants brought torrential rains that led to a large number of casualties across Central America.

11

Impact Forecasting

2011 Western Pacific Typhoon Season Review

Exhibit 10: Western Pacific Typhoons over the Last 25 Years

Average = 16.6

Western Pacific Hurricanes

Typ

hoon

s

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990198919881987

Year

Typhoon activity across the Western Pacific Ocean Basin was below the long-term average for the sixth consecutive year in 2011. A total of 20 named storms developed during the season, 23 percent below the 25-year average of 26.0. Of those storms, 10 typhoons formed, which is 37 percent below the 25-year average of 16.6. Seven of the 10 typhoons reached Category 3 (or higher) strength, approximately 23 percent below the 25-year average of 9.1. Of the 10 typhoons that developed, six made landfall, or 35 percent below the 25-year average of 9.2.

The Philippines experienced another active season, with four typhoons making landfall (in addition to one near landfall) in 2011. The first typhoon to come ashore in the archipelago was Nock-ten, a Category 1 typhoon that moved across northern Luzon Island in late July. This typhoon would eventually cross China’s Hainan Island and northern Vietnam before its remnants combined with seasonal monsoon rains to trigger extensive flooding in Thailand. The strongest storm to make landfall in the Philippines was Super Typhoon Nanmadol, a Category 4

storm with maximum sustained winds of 250 kph (155 mph), which later made a final landfall in Taiwan. The Philippines’ most devastating cyclone of the season was Typhoon Nesat, a Category 3 typhoon that struck in late September and was quickly followed by Super Typhoon Nalgae less than one week later. Both systems would make landfall in China, but with much weaker strength.

The two strongest typhoons of the season in the Western Pacific Basin (Super Typhoons Muifa and Songda) were both Category 5 systems with maximum sustained winds of 260 kph (160 mph). Both weakened considerably prior to landfall in South Korea (Muifa) and Japan (Songda) at tropical storm-strength. Another notable typhoon this season was Typhoon Roke, at one time a Category 4 cyclone, which struck Japan in late September with 170 kph (105 mph) winds. Typhoon Ma-on also made landfall(s) in Japan with Category 1 strength.

12


Exhibit 11: Indian Ocean & South Pacific Cyclones over the Last 25 Years

Average = 15.4

Indian Ocean & South Pacific Cyclones

Cyc

lone

s

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990198919881987

Year

2011 Indian Ocean and Southern Pacific Cyclone Season Review

For the fourth consecutive year, the Indian Ocean and the Southern Pacific Ocean basins saw below average tropical cyclone activity. A total of 26 named storms developed in the region, 20 percent below the 25-year average of 32.4. Of those storms, 12 cyclones formed, or 22 percent below the 25-year average of 15.4. Five of these cyclones reached Category 3 or higher strength, which is approximately 36 percent below the 25-year average of 7.8. Out of the cyclones, only two made landfall, or 52 percent below the 25-year average of 4.2.

Only one system made landfall in Australia in 2011, though it became the second costliest tropical cyclone on record to strike the country (second only to 1974’s Cyclone Tracy). Cyclone Yasi, the basin’s strongest system of the season, officially made landfall in early February at peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 250 kph (155 mph). The storm quickly weakened over northern Queensland though its remnants later trekked across parts of the Northern Territory and South Australia. The rest of

the tropical activity in the South Pacific and South Indian Ocean basins surrounding Australia generally remained over open waters and did not have any direct impacts. Cyclones Carlos and Dianne brought periods of heavy rainfall to Western Australia in late February but only had tropical storm-strength winds at the time of impact.

Outside of Australia, two notable tropical systems occurred in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean basins in 2011. Cyclone Wilma, at one time a Category 4 storm with 215 kph (135 mph) winds, affected both Tonga and the North Island of New Zealand in late January. The system, a tropical storm at the time in both occurrences, brought heavy rains. In Madagascar, Cyclone Bingiza made landfall in mid-February as a Category 3 storm with 185 kph (115 mph) winds. The third (and last) landfalling cyclone of the year in the basin came in late December, when Cyclone Thane came ashore in southern India as a Category 1 storm.

13

Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 12: United States Tornadoes over the Last 25 Years

Average = 1,203

U.S. Tornadoes

Torn

adoe

s

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990198919881987

Year

2011 United States Tornado Season Review

2011 was one of the most active tornado years on record in the United States. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma counted approximately 1,718 tornadoes through late-December, compared to 1,282 in 2010, 1,156 in 2009 and a 25-year average of 1,203. 2011’s count was 43 percent above the 25-year average. There were six EF-5 tornadoes in 2011, tying 1974 for most F5 or EF-5 tornadoes on record in a single year. 2011 became the first year since 1998 that the U.S. saw more than one EF-5 tornado touch down.

A total of 59 killer tornadoes (tornadoes that caused fatalities) occurred across the United States in 2011. This total represents a substantial increase from 2010, when 21 were recorded, and an even greater disparity when comparing to 2009’s nine. The killer tornadoes of 2011 caused 553 fatalities, which is tremendously higher than the 25-year average of approximately 75. The number of tornado-related fatalities in 2011 marks the deadliest year since official records began being kept by the National Weather Service in 1950, and tied for the second deadliest year

overall since unofficial tallies began in 1875. The vast majority of the fatalities occurred in the months of April and May (540), following a series of historic tornado outbreaks that ravaged central and eastern sections of the country.

In a year with dozens of killer tornadoes, the single-deadliest came in Joplin, Missouri on May 22nd. At least 162 fatalities were blamed directly and indirectly on the EF-5 twister as winds reached 250 mph (405 kph) at their peak, causing catastrophic damage throughout the city. Joplin was the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947 and also the costliest single tornado in world history. The deadliest day in 2011 came on April 27th when no fewer than eight tornadoes left a minimum of 10 people dead. In Alabama, the Hackleburg EF-5 tornado, with 210 mph (340 kph) winds, killed 72 people over a 106.9-mile (172.0-kilometer) path that covered five counties; while the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham EF-4 twister with 190 mph (305 kph) winds killed 64.

14


Exhibit 13: United States Acreage per Brushfire over the Last 25 Years

Average = 64.66

Acres Per Fire

Acr

es

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990198919881987

Year

2011 United States Brushfire Season ReviewIn 2011, the number of brushfires across the United States was below the 25-year average, while the number of acres burned per fire was above average. The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) in Boise, Idaho reported approximately 73,484 wildfires burning 8,706,852 acres (3,526,275 hectares) through late-December, compared to 71,971 fires burning 3,422,724 acres (1,386,203 hectares) in 2010 and a 25-year average of 76,134 fires burning 4,950,942 acres (2,005,132 hectares). Exhibit 13 shows that the 2011 wildfire season burned an average of 118.48 acres (47.99 hectares) per fire, significantly above the 25-year average of 64.66 acres (26.19 hectares) per fire. This is the largest burn rate since 2005, when an average of 130.17 acres (52.72 hectares) burned with each fire. The lowest burn rate occurred in 1998, when an average of 16.41 acres (6.64 hectares) burned within each fire, mainly due to excessive precipitation across California early in the year caused by a strong El Niño cycle.

The year began with below average wildfire incidents and below average acreage burned in January before activity began to steadily increase in February and March. In April, while the number of incidents was slightly below average, the total number of acres burned far outpaced the long-term average due to significant fires burning across the southern half of the country – particularly in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Arizona. The fires were aided by a lengthy drought which persisted across the region, in combination with above average temperatures, low humidity, gusty winds and extremely low soil moisture levels. By May, heightened fire activity and coverage remained as the Wallow Fire in Arizona became the largest fire in state history. Between June and August, the total number of fires stayed slightly below average though the acres burned were well above average.

The focus shifted to Texas in early September, as the Bastrop County Complex Fire destroyed 1,645 homes and became the costliest and most destructive wildfire in state history. The last quarter of the year (October, November and early December) saw near normal numbers of fires and acres burned.

15

Impact Forecasting

One of the main influential factors for the globe’s annual climate conditions is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an anomalous warming or cooling of the central Pacific Ocean waters that generally occurs every three to seven years, mainly during the months of August through February.

During neutral conditions, surface trade winds blow from the east and force cooler waters that are upwelled from the deeper depths of the Pacific Ocean to the surface across the western coast of South America. Because of the displacement of water flowing to the west, the ocean is up to 60 centimeters (two feet) higher in the western Pacific Ocean as it is in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The warmer waters are forced into the western portions of the ocean, allowing thunderstorm activity to occur across the western half of the Pacific Ocean.

During El Niño conditions, the surface trade winds that normally blow from east to west weaken and sometimes even reverse direction. This allows the warmer waters to remain or even traverse eastward, bringing more frequent thunderstorm activity to the central and eastern portions of the Pacific Ocean. Warm and very wet conditions typically occur across Peru, Ecuador, Brazil and Argentina from December through April. Portions of Central America, Colombia and the Amazon River Basin are dry, as are southeastern Asia and most of Australia. In Africa, El Niño’s effects range from wetter-than-average conditions across eastern portions to warmer and drier-than-average conditions across southern portions. In North America, the polar jet stream (the jet stream that is responsible for Arctic outbreaks) is usually pushed northward, keeping cold Arctic air across the northern portions of Canada. Warmer-than-average temperatures typically occur across the northern United States and southern Canada. The subtropical jet stream, which usually sinks southward during the winter months, will drift northward and bring a succession of storm systems across the southern tier of the U.S. and northern Mexico.

During La Niña conditions, the surface trade winds will strengthen, promoting additional cooler water to be upwelled from the depths of the Pacific Ocean up to the surface and forced westward. This forces thunderstorm activity across the Pacific Ocean westward and often brings fewer tropical systems to the central and eastern Pacific regions. Because of the waters’ influence of the upper atmospheric jet stream, La Niña’s effects, like El Niño’s effects, are experienced worldwide. The main effects are usually noted across the western Pacific regions, where wetter conditions are expected, especially during the beginning months of the year. Wet and cool conditions are typical across southern Africa and eastern South America between December and February. With the polar jet stream displaced further south, cool and wet conditions occur across the northern half of the North America West Coast, while dry and mild conditions are experienced for the southern half of the United States into northern Mexico. If La Niña’s cycle continues into June, July and August, warm and wet conditions often occur across Indonesia and the southern half of Asia, while cool and wet conditions are found across the southern portions of the Caribbean Ocean.

The following pages contain maps that depict the most likely occurrences of above and below average temperatures and precipitation from January through May across the world. See the appendix for El Niño’s and La Niña’s effects on tropical system frequency for the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

2012 Climate and Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts

Exhibit 14: Phases of the El Niño / Southern Oscillation

Normal Conditions El Niño Conditions La Niña Conditions

16


Temperature and Precipitation Outlook: January – March 2012

Exhibit 15: Temperature Outlook: January – March 2012

Exhibit 16: Precipitation Outlook: January – March 2012

As of December 2011, weak La Niña conditions continued across the central Pacific Ocean. These conditions are expected to persist through the first few months of 2012. However, after January, the computer climate models have begun to indicate that the current La Niña phase may start to weaken in February. Despite the possibility of La Niña gradually weakening, it is expected to remain through March.

Temperature Legend

Much Above Normal

Above Normal

Below Normal

Much Below Normal

Temperature Legend

Much Above Normal

Above Normal

Below Normal

Much Below Normal

17

Impact Forecasting

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook: March – May 2012

Exhibit 17: Temperature Outlook: March – May 2012

Exhibit 18: Precipitation Outlook: March – May 2012

As the La Niña phase continues to weaken and transition towards ENSO-neutral conditions, its effects will likely persist through March, April and May. Typical conditions associated with La Niña will be found across the southern Plains in the United States as warmer than average temperatures and well below normal precipitation will occur. Warmer temperatures will also be likely for parts of northern Canada, Europe and northern Africa. On the other extreme, there is a possibility for a return of wetter than average and cooler conditions across parts of Southeast Asia. Cooler conditions may also be found in parts of northern Australia, South America and southern Canada.

Temperature Legend

Much Above Normal

Above Normal

Below Normal

Much Below Normal

Temperature Legend

Much Above Normal

Above Normal

Below Normal

Much Below Normal

18


Historical Atlantic Hurricane Season PredictionsAbundant media coverage is given to various organizations across the world that issue hurricane season predictions for the Atlantic Ocean Basin. These organizations utilize meteorological and climatic data obtained, in some instances, up to six months in advance to determine how active or inactive the Atlantic Hurricane Season will be in the upcoming year. Several different professional entities issue these forecasts, ranging from governmental agencies to universities to private companies. Three organizations which consistently make their forecasts available to the public are:

• Colorado State University (CSU), a forecast group sponsored by Colorado State University and private companies that is led by Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray

• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the United States’ official governmental climatological and meteorological office

• Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), an Aon Benfield-sponsored forecast group based in London, England led by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr. Adam Lea

Some of these entities disclose in detail the parameters being used to derive these forecasts, while others cite general factors for the reasoning of their predictions. CSU and TSR provide specific numbers for each year’s forecasts, while NOAA provides a range of values.

The forecasts for the last five years made between the period of May 1st and June 10th along with the actual total number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes are shown in the following tables. The May/June forecast was chosen due to the availability of forecasts from each organization. Additionally, a five-year cumulative forecast is shown to emphasize that long-term forecasting may yield more information on general frequency shifts than short-term forecasting.

Exhibit 19: 2011 Forecast

Forecast Parameter

May / June Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

25-Year Average CSU NOAA TSR Season Total

Named Storms 13.1 16 12-18 14 19

Hurricanes 6.8 9 6-10 8 7

Major Hurricanes 3.0 5 3-6 4 3


Forecast Parameter



Named Storms 13.1 18 14-23 18 19

Hurricanes 6.8 10 8-14 10 12


19

Impact Forecasting


Forecast Parameter



Named Storms 13.1 11 9-14 11 9




Forecast Parameter



Named Storms 13.1 15 12-16 14 16




Forecast Parameter



Named Storms 13.1 17 13-17 16 15



Exhibit 24: 5-Year Cumulative Forecast

Forecast Parameter


25-Year Total CSU NOAA TSR 5-Year Season Total

Named Storms 66 77 60-88 73 78

Hurricanes 34 41 31-50 40 36

Major Hurricanes 15 21 12-26 17 17

20


2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season OutlooksCSU and TSR release forecasts for the following year’s Atlantic Hurricane Season in early December, and these forecasts are shown below in the following exhibits.

Exhibit 25: CSU 2012 Atlantic Basin Climatology (issued December 7th)

Forecast Parameter CSU Average Year

Named Storms 12.0

Named Storm Days 60.1

Hurricanes 6.5

Hurricane Days 21.3

Major Hurricanes 2.0

Major Hurricane Days 3.9

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 103%

*Please note that beginning in December 2011, CSU has decided to suspend providing quantitative outlooks for specific numbers of named storms, hurricanes and major (Category 3+) hurricanes in their December analysis.

Exhibit 26: TSR 2012 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Forecast (issued December 7th)

Forecast Parameter TSR Average Year TSR Forecast

Named Storms 10.6 (±4.2) 14.1 (±4.2)

Hurricanes 6.2 (±2.7 6.7 (±3.0)

Major Hurricanes 2.7 (±1.9) 3.3 (±1.6)

Exhibit 27: TSR 2012 Hurricane Landfall Forecast (issued December 7th)

Forecast Parameter TSR Average Year TSR Forecast

U.S. Named Storms 3.1 (±2.0) 4.3 (±2.2)

U.S. Hurricanes 1.5 (±1.3 1.8 (±1.5)

21

Impact Forecasting

United States

• Historic April and May severe weather outbreaks cause catastrophic damage and large loss of life

• Hurricane Irene becomes first landfalling U.S. hurricane since 2008

• Flooding across the Mississippi and Missouri River Basins cause billions (USD) in damage

Exhibit 28: United States January Events


ClaimsDamage

Estimates (USD)

12/31-1/1 Severe Weather Midwest, Southeast 8+ 10,000+ Millions+

1/7-1/12 Winter Weather Midwest, Southeast, Notheast 11+ Thousands+ Millions+

1/17-1/24 Winter Weather Plains, Midwest, Northeast, Tennessee Valley 0 Thousands+ Millions+

2011 Monthly Catastrophe Review

A powerful storm system spawned a severe weather outbreak across parts of the Midwest, Southeast and the Mississippi Valley on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. At least eight people were killed and dozens more were injured during the event. Dozens of tornadoes (including at least seven EF-3 twisters) touched down in parts of Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Mississippi along with additional reports of damaging winds and large hail. Total economic losses were in the tens of millions of dollars (USD).

Winter weather affected the eastern half of the U.S. between the 7th and the 12th. A first system brought a wave of heavy snowfall to parts of the Great Lakes on the 7th and 8th, before the focus shifted into the Southeast on the 8th and 9th as a secondary storm system developed along the Gulf Coast. That storm brought widespread snow and ice throughout the region, where at least 11 people were killed. On the 11th and 12th, the two systems combined to become a powerful Nor’easter that brought snow accumulations ranging from 6 to 30 inches (15 to 76 centimeters) throughout coastal New England. Total economic losses were listed in the tens of millions of dollars (USD).

Two winter storms in the eastern U.S. between the 17th and the 24th left at least 10 people dead. The first storm brought rain, snow and ice to the Northeast on the 17th and 18th; while a more potent second storm crossed the Plains, Midwest, Tennessee Valley and the Atlantic Seaboard between the 19th and the 21st. Arctic air behind the second system led to the closure of schools, businesses and Amtrak service throughout the Midwest and Northeast.

The third record-setting major winter storm of the 2010-2011 winter season brought excessive wintry precipitation and severe weather to the eastern U.S. between the 24th and the 26th. As the storm organized, it spawned at least six tornado touchdowns in central and southern Florida which damaged hundreds of homes, buildings and other structures. By the 25th and 26th, the main area of low pressure crossed Appalachia into the Northeast as the Nor’easter brought heavy snowfall to Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, New York City, Baltimore and Boston. Severe travel disruption ensued.

22


Exhibit 29: United States February Events

Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2# Of Structures/

Claims2,3Damage Estimates2,4

(USD)

1/31-2/12 Winter Weather Midwest, Southeast, Northeast 36+ 100,000+ 2+ billion

2/2-2/6 Winter Weather Plains, Southeast, Southwest 4+ 45,000+ 650+ million

2/20-2/21 Winter Weather Midwest, Ohio Valley, Northeast 1+ 4,000+ Millions+

2/24-2/25 Winter Weather Midwest, Southeast, Northeast 4+ 20,000+ 225+ million

2/27-3/4 Wildfires Texas 1+ 241+ 14.5+ million

2/27-2/28 Severe Weather Southeast, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic 4+ 45,000+ 250+ million

A major winter storm brought record amounts of snow, ice and severe thunderstorms across a more than 2,000-mile (3,218-kilometer) stretch of the United States from Colorado to Maine between January 31st and February 2nd, leaving at least 36 people dead. Twenty-two separate states received snow totals of 5 inches (13 centimeters) or more, and accumulations of more than 18 inches (45 centimeters) were recorded in seven other states. In Chicago, the city sustained the third-biggest snowfall in its history. More than 18,000 flights were cancelled across the country due to the inclement weather, which also included bitter cold that damaged crops in the southern Plains. Severe weather occurred in the Southeast and the Mississippi Valley along the southern branch of the main frontal boundary on the 1st. Total economic losses were at least USD2 billion, while insurers received more than 115,000 claims with losses exceeding USD1.1 billion.

Record snow and bitter cold temperatures engulfed parts of the southern Plains, the Desert Southwest and the Southeast between the 2nd and the 6th. At least four fatalities were attributed to the storm, which directly impacted 14 states. Following a stretch of very heavy snowfall, arctic air sunk over the region as unprecedented cold covered much of the southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley. According to the Texas AgriLife Extension Service, the hard freeze affected agricultural operations by halting fieldwork and damaging crops. Total economic losses were listed at USD650 million, while insurers received more than 45,000 claims with losses exceeding USD400 million.

A winter storm affected parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley and the Northeast on the 20th and the 21st, leaving at least one person dead. Heavy snow totals fell in the Minnesota, the Dakotas, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, with some parts

of the Great Lakes seeing a mixed precipitation and gusty winds that snapped trees and power lines. Thousands of structures and vehicles were damaged.

Another winter storm affected much of the eastern half of the U.S. on the 24th and 25th, with heavy snow and freezing rain occurring from Kansas to Maine and severe weather impacting the Southeast. At least four fatalities were attributed to the system. A squall line raced through parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, which caused widespread damage. Total economic losses were estimated at USD225 million, while insurers received more than 20,000 claims with losses exceeding USD125 million.

The combination of very dry conditions and high winds led to several wildfires across west Texas between February 27th and March 4th. At least 241 homes and other structures were damaged or destroyed in Potter, Randall and Mitchell counties after winds gusting to nearly 70 mph (110 kph) helped the fires char more than 140,000 acres (56,600 hectares) of land. At least one traffic fatality was blamed on heavy smoke. Total economic damages were listed at USD14.5 million.

A strong storm system spawned both severe weather and flooding across parts of the Plains, Midwest, Southeast, Ohio Valley and the Northeast on the 27th and 28th, killing four people. According to the SPC, reports of tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail were recorded damage occurred from Oklahoma to Pennsylvania. In Ohio, heavy rains sparked flooding throughout the state as multiple rivers exceeded flood stage. Total economic losses were estimated at USD250 million, while insurers received more than 45,000 claims with losses exceeding USD150 million.

23

Impact Forecasting

A winter storm brought heavy snow, rain and rounds of severe weather across parts of the Midwest, Mississippi Valley, Southeast and the Northeast between the 5th and 7th. A squall line spawned at least 10 tornado touchdowns in Louisiana on the 5th, where an EF-2 twister in the town of Rayne damaged or destroyed nearly 150 homes and killed one person. Additional damage and injuries were reported in parts of Mississippi and Alabama. On the 6th, tornadoes touched down in North Carolina, while straight-line winds caused damage in parts of eastern Virginia. In New England, heavy snow and gusty winds led power poles and tree branches being snapped.

A large wildfire burned across parts of New Mexico between the 7th and 9th, charring nearly 1,800 acres (728 hectares) of land near Silver City. According to local firefighters, the Quail Ridge Fire led to the destruction of at least 60 structures (including 13 homes). No injuries or fatalities were reported.

A strong storm system brought additional rounds of heavy snow, rain and severe weather across parts of the Midwest, Mississippi Valley, Southeast and Northeast between the 8th and 11th. At least four people were killed. The most significant effects were due to severe weather that impacted areas from Texas to the Carolinas. Dozens of tornadoes touched down on the 8th and 9th in parts of Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana and Tennessee, which led to structural damage. On the 10th and 11th, heavy rains fell across already oversaturated regions of the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic States which prompted both flash flood and river flooding. Total economic losses were estimated at USD200 million, while insurers received at least 20,000 claims with payouts totaling in excess of USD120 million.

Areas along the west coast of the U.S. and Hawaii were affected by the magnitude-9.0 earthquake that struck Japan on the 11th. The triggered tsunami led to widespread damage in parts of California and Hawaii. Total damages in California from the tsunami were listed at more than USD50 million, primarily to docks, harbors and boats. In Hawaii, the state estimated that more than USD8.5 million in damages to infrastructure while direct damage to personal property and local businesses was USD29.9 million.

Dozens of grass fires burned across parts of Oklahoma and Texas on the 12th and 13th. At least 15 injuries were reported. In Oklahoma, the most affected areas came in Oklahoma County where at least 37 homes were damaged or destroyed. Total damages in the county were listed at USD3 million. A total of 49 homes were destroyed state-wide. In Texas, at least 8 homes were destroyed in the towns of Jacksboro and Granbury.

A strong storm system crossed the United States between the 20th and the 23rd, leaving at least three people dead. The system came ashore in California on the 20th and brought heavy rain and blizzard conditions to the Sierras. Damage occurred to hundreds of homes and businesses due to landslides and flash flooding, with costs listed at USD17 million. As the main area of low pressure crossed the country from the Plains to New England, it spawned both heavy snow and severe weather reports. Total economic losses were listed in the tens of millions (USD).

Exhibit 30: United States March Events



(USD)

3/5-3/7 Winter Weather Southeast, Midwest, Northeast 1+ Thousands+ Millions+

3/7-3/9 Wildfires New Mexico 0 60+ Unknown

3/8-3/11 Winter Weather Southeast, Midwest, Northeast 4+ 20,000+ 200+ million

3/11 Tsunami West Coast, Hawaii 1+ Hundreds+ 88.4+ million

3/12-3/13 Wildfires Oklahoma, Texas 0 67+ 3+ million

3/20-3/23 Severe Weather West, Southeast, Northeast 3+ Thousands+ 27+ million

3/26-3/28 Severe Weather Southeast 0 25,000+ 225+ million

3/29-3/31 Severe Weather Southeast 0 37,500+ 350+ million

24


Severe weather caused widespread damage to parts of the Deep South between the 26th and the 28th. The states of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia were primarily affected as hail ranging from nickel to golfball-size was blamed for the majority of inflicted damage. Total economic losses were listed at USD225 million, while insurers received more than 25,000 claims with payouts exceeding USD150 million.

Another round of severe weather impacted the Southeast between the 29th and 31st, as an area of low pressure developed along the remnants of the stationary frontal

boundary. In Louisiana, at least five tornadoes touched down, while at least four counties in Mississippi sustained major damage. On the 30th and 31st, the focus shifted into Central Florida as a nearly persistent band of showers and severe thunderstorms occurred over a 36-hour span. Damage to homes, airplane hangars, businesses and vehicles was widespread throughout the greater Tampa Bay area. Total economic losses were listed at USD350 million, while various insurers received more than 37,500 claims with payouts exceeding USD200 million.

Exhibit 31: United States April Events



(USD)

4/3-4/5 Severe Weather Midwest, Southeast, Plains 9+ 275,000+ 2.8+ billion

4/8-4/11 Severe Weather Midwest, Southeast, Plains 0 290,000+ 2.25+ billion

4/8-4/14 Flooding Red River Valley 3+ Hundreds+ 20+ million

4/9-4/30 Wildfires Texas 2+ 310+ 183+ million

4/14-4/16 Severe Weather Plains, Southeast, Midwest 48+ 150,000+ 2.5+ billion

4/19-4/21 Severe Weather Plains, Southeast, Midwest 0 150,000+ 1.25+ billion

4/22-4/28 Severe Weather Southeast, Plains, Midwest 344+ 700,000+ 10.2+ billion

A powerful spring storm system affected the eastern U.S. between the 3rd and 5th, which led to at least nine fatalities. On the 3rd, squall lines caused widespread damage across parts of Kansas, Missouri, Iowa and Wisconsin. By the 4th into early on the 5th, the system began to traverse through the Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic States. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) recorded 1,476 storm reports, which set a one-day record dating to 2000. Georgia was particularly affected, where at least seven fatalities occurred. Additional tornadoes led to structural damage in Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee and Mississippi. Later on the 5th, parts of North Carolina, Virginia and Florida sustained additional damage from the storms. Total economic losses were listed at approximately USD2.8 billion, while various insurers received more than 275,000 claims with payouts in excess of USD2 billion.

Another storm system brought widespread severe weather across parts of the Midwest, Plains and the Southeast between the 8th and the 11th. In Oklahoma and Kansas, strong supercell thunderstorms triggered golf ball and baseball-sized hail. Additional damage was reported in seven other states on the 8th and 9th. On the 9th and 10th, a cluster of thunderstorms crossed the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast. The Carolinas were particularly affected. On the 10th and 11th, the focus shifted back into the Great Lakes as several tornadoes touched down in Wisconsin. Later on the 10th and the 11th, severe weather brought significant hail damage across the Mississippi Valley and the southern Plains. Total economic losses were listed at approximately USD2.25 billion, while various insurers received more than 290,000 claims with payouts in excess of USD1.5 billion.

25

Impact Forecasting

The Red River Valley saw flooding after rain events caused excessive water run-off into rivers and streams in North Dakota and Minnesota. Outside of the Red River, other rivers and streams draining into the basin saw water levels above flood stage. The Red River officially crested in Fargo on the 9th at 38.75 feet (11.81 meters), which was the fourth highest ever recorded in Fargo. Structural damage was minimal in the cities of Fargo, Moorhead, Casselton and Harwood. Most damage came to the transportation infrastructure after dozens of roads covering at least 60 miles (95 kilometers) were submerged and severely eroded. Total economic losses were listed at USD20 million.

The combination of very dry air and gusty winds led to dozens of wildfires breaking out across Texas between the 9th and the 30th, killing at least two firefighters. The Texas Forest Service reported that the fires charred more than 1.5 million acres (607,000 hectares) of land and at least 310 homes, businesses and churches. The Insurance Council of Texas listed insured losses in excess of USD150 million. Additional damage to fencing, pipelines and other farm assets were listed at USD33 million.

A deadly multi-day tornado outbreak affected central and eastern sections of the country between the 14th and 16th. At least 48 people were killed (24 in North Carolina alone) as hundreds of tornado touchdowns were recorded with thousands of other reports of large hail and damaging winds. The system initially impacted parts of Oklahoma, Kansas and Arkansas on the 14th, with major damage reported in each state. On the 15th, the severe weather shifted into the Southeast (particularly Mississippi and Alabama) and the Midwest where in excess of 100 tornadoes touched down. By the 16th, violent supercell thunderstorms developed in advance of a main squall line across the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. In North Carolina, dozens of tornadoes touched down and caused significant damage throughout the state. Total economic losses were listed at approximately USD2.5 billion, while various insurers received more than 150,000 claims with payouts in excess of USD1.7 billion.

Another powerful storm system spawned additional widespread severe weather across parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Midwest, Ohio Valley and the Southeast between the 19th and 21st. On the 19th, damage was recorded from northern Texas northeastward into Ohio as storms occurred in association with a dangerous squall line. On the 20th, the hardest hit areas included parts of Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. In the days that followed, flash flood watches and warnings were issued throughout the Midwest and the Southeast as recent heavy rains caused several rivers to swell to flood stage. Total economic losses were listed at in excess of USD1.25 billion, while various insurers received more than 150,000 claims with payouts in excess of USD800 million.

An active weather pattern spawned a series of powerful storm systems across the central and eastern U.S. between the 22nd and the 28th, including a historic tornado event on the 27th. At least a combined 344 people died and more than 2,000 others were injured. The first wave spawned tornadic activity in the St. Louis, Missouri metropolitan area. The most destructive tornado was an EF-4 that caused extensive damage to thousands of homes and the international airport. By the 25th and 26th, fresh rounds of severe weather affected the southern Plains, Mississippi Valley, Midwest and New England. A historic wave of severe weather developed on the 26th and the 27th while affecting an area from the southern Plains to the Northeast. At least 322 people (238 in Alabama) were killed after hundreds of tornadoes touched down over a 48-hour stretch. Parts of Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee were decimated by the outbreak. The National Weather Service determined that three EF-5 tornadoes touched down (Hackleburg, Alabama, Rainsville, Alabama and Smithville, Mississippi) during the event in addition to at least 11 other high end EF-4 twisters. The NWS also reported that an estimated 312 tornadoes touched down on the 27th, setting an all-time 24-hour record. The city of Tuscaloosa, Alabama was devastated by an EF-4 tornado with winds of 190 mph (305 kph). Total economic losses were listed at USD10.2 billion, while various insurers received more than 700,000 claims with payouts in excess of USD7.3 billion.

26


After an active winter season and a record snowpack, recent heavy rains and snowmelt led to flooding from New York to Maine between the middle of April through mid-May. In Vermont, the state government reported that at least 500 homes had been destroyed or severely damaged around Lake Champlain. In New York, more than 1,000 homes were damaged by the floods. Total damages were estimated at a combined USD75 million.

Persistent heavy rains combined with snowmelt to bring major flooding throughout the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys between April 25th and the end of May, prompting a federal disaster declaration in three states. At least nine people were killed in flood-related incidents. Flood damage was reported from southern Canada and the Dakotas through Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, Arkansas and Tennessee, Mississippi and Louisiana. The American Farm Bureau Federation reported that over 3.6 million acres (1.45 million hectares) of farmland had been damaged. The flooding, in combination with intentional levee explosions and the opening of spillways, led to damages of at least USD4 billion (primarily due to agricultural losses) up and down the Mississippi River Valley. The government’s Risk Management Agency noted that publicly and privately insured crop losses would be at least USD1.1 billion.

Severe weather swept across parts of the central and eastern U.S. between the 10th and the 13th, leaving at least two people dead. The most notable damage locations came in Minnesota, the Carolinas and parts of the Mississippi Valley primarily due to hail (up to baseball-size) and straight-line winds. Total economic losses were listed at USD300 million, while various insurers reported having received more than 50,000 claims with payouts listed in excess of USD200 million.

Areas in the Missouri River Basin (including parts of Montana, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa and Missouri) endured rounds of river flooding during May and extending well into June. The U.S. Army Corp of Engineers enacted several controlled water releases to help ease record water levels being recorded at some reservoir sites. These releases only added additional water downstream, where multiple levees were either breached or were on the verge of failure throughout the region. The floods caused at least USD1 billion in damages and reconstruction costs.

A series of storm systems spawned another wave of historic severe weather across parts of the U.S. between the 21st and the 27th, killing at least 185 people and injuring 1,300 others. At least 162 fatalities, 1,150 injuries and catastrophic damage occurred in the city of Joplin, Missouri alone from the deadliest single U.S. tornado to occur since the National Weather Service started keeping official statistics in 1950. The twister was rated as an EF-5 with winds in excess of 200 mph (325 kph). A second EF-5 was confirmed in Oklahoma during the period as an area from southern Texas to New England sustained major damage due to the severe weather. The SPC confirmed at least 180 tornado touchdowns. Total economic losses from the event were listed at USD9.1 billion, while various insurers received at least 750,000 claims with payouts totaling in excess of USD6.75 billion.

Extremely dry conditions and winds gusting to 50 mph (85 kph) sparked additional wildfires across parts of Texas between the 28th and the 30th. Two fires just outside the greater Amarillo area combined to destroy at least 12 homes and more than 1,400 acres (557 hectares) of land.

Exhibit 32: United States May Events



(USD)

4/15-5/15 Flooding New England 0 2,000+ 75+ million

4/25-6/15 Flooding Mississippi Valley 9+ 25,000+ 4+ billion

5/10-5/13 Severe Weather Midwest, Southeast 2+ 50,000+ 300+ million

5/15-6/30 Flooding Missouri River Basin 1+ 5,000+ 1+ billion

5/21-5/27 Severe Weather Plains, Midwest, Southeast 185+ 750,000+ 9.1+ billion

5/28-5/30 Wildfires Texas 0 12+ Unknown

5/28-6/1 Severe Weather Plains, Midwest, Northeast 3+ 30,000+ 500+ million

27

Impact Forecasting

Fresh rounds of severe weather impacted central and eastern sections of the country between May 28th and June 1st, leaving at least three people dead. The powerful thunderstorms spawned tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds that affected parts of the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley and the Northeast. The most notable effects came in western and

central Massachusetts on June 1st as at least 18 separate communities reported widespread damage from multiple tornado touchdowns. Total economic losses were listed at USD500 million with various insurers received at least 30,000 claims with payouts totaling in excess of USD300 million.

Exhibit 33: United States June Events



(USD)

5/25-7/5 Flooding Souris River Basin 0 5,000+ 1+ billion

5/29-6/23 Wildfires Arizona, New Mexico, Texas 2+ 300+ 160+ million

6/1-6/2 Severe Weather Central Plains 0 10,000+ 75+ million

6/8-6/10 Severe Weather Midwest, Northeast, Plains 0 35,000+ 300+ million

6/14-6/15 Severe Weather Southern Plains 0 20,000+ 125+ million

6/16-6/22 Severe Weather Midwest, Plains, Southeast 0 200,000+ 1.5+ billion

6/26-6/30 Wildfires New Mexico, Texas 0 100+ 512+ million

Areas in the Souris River Basin, primarily in North Dakota, endured rounds of flooding throughout the month of June after beginning in late May. In Minot, the Souris River set an all-time record crest and flooded at least 4,200 homes in the city and hundreds of other businesses. The transportation infrastructure also sustained major damage. Total economic losses were listed at USD1 billion.

Wildfires burned across parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Texas and Florida during the month, which led to two fatalities. In Arizona, the main blaze was the Wallow Fire which charred more than 538,000 acres (218,000 hectares) and destroyed at least 78 structures. In New Mexico, the Track Fire destroyed at least 19 structures. In Texas, the East Texas Complex charred 29,002 acres (11,700 hectares) of land and at least 40 structures. In Florida, at least two firefighters were killed while fighting the Blue Ribbon Fire. Overall costs to fight the fires was at least USD160 million.

A storm system developed and spawned severe weather (including nearly a dozen tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds) across parts of the Central Plains on the 1st and 2nd. Parts of central and northern Kansas were particularly affected, primarily due to large hail – up to softball-sized in some locations. Total economic losses were estimated at USD75 million, while various insurers received at least 10,000 claims with payouts listed at approximately USD50 million.

Scattered severe weather occurred across multiple sections of the country between the 8th and the 10th. The most notable damage came in parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley and the Northeast as the SPC recorded nearly 1,000 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Total economic losses were estimated at USD300 million, while various insurers received at least 35,000 claims with payouts listed at approximately USD200 million.

Clusters of severe thunderstorms crossed parts of the southern Plains on the 14th into early on the 15th, causing major damage in Oklahoma. Total economic losses were listed at USD125 million, while various insurers received at least 20,000 claims with payouts listed at approximately USD85 million.

An active eight-day stretch of severe weather occurred across much of the eastern two-thirds of the country between the 16th and the 22nd. With a stationary frontal boundary draped across an area from the Carolinas back into the central Plains, several areas of low pressure developed. Of the more than 3,000 storm reports recorded by the SPC during this timeframe, the vast majority were damaging winds and large hail. Notable damage locations during the period came in the greater Chicago, Illinois metropolitan region and at the famed Churchill Downs in Kentucky. Total economic losses were listed at USD1.5 billion, while various insurers reported having received at least 200,000 claims with payouts totaling in excess of USD1.15 billion.

28


New wildfires burned across the Desert Southwest through the end of June, with the most notable fire being the Las Conchas wildfire in New Mexico. The blaze burn more than 124,000 acres (50,100 hectares) of land. At least 95 structures were list

in and around Los Alamos. In Texas, the Forest Service reported that two large fires (the Dyer Mill Fire and the Bearing Fire) destroyed at least USD15 million in timber — resulting in a possible USD500 million economic loss.

Exhibit 34: United States July Events



(USD)

6/30-7/4 Severe Weather Midwest 2+ 90,000+ 800+ million

7/10-7/14 Severe Weather Midwest, Rockies, Plains 0 160,000+ 1.4+ billion

7/22-7/24 Severe Weather Midwest 0 25,000+ 200+ million

7/29 TS Don Texas 0 Unknown Unknown

7/29-8/1 Severe Weather Plains, Midwest, Northeast 0 50,000+ 300+ million

Several days of severe weather between June 30th and July 4th brought widespread damage throughout the Midwest, killing at least two people. In the greater Chicago, Illinois metropolitan region, extremely gusty winds and hail as large as baseballs caused damage in the city. Additional damage occurred in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin as tornadoes, large hail and straight-line winds occurred. Two fatalities occurred in Burnett County, Wisconsin. Total economic losses were listed at USD800 million, with various insurers receiving at least 90,000 claims with payouts in excess of USD600 million.

Clusters of strong thunderstorms led to widespread damage across parts of the Midwest, Rockies and the Plains between the 10th and the 14th. Notable damage locations came in the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin on the 10th before shifting into the Great Lakes on the 11th as a powerful derecho crossed the region. In the greater Chicago metropolitan area, winds gusting to 80 mph (130 kph) led to widespread damage as trees were downed and power lines snapped. Also during the period, severe storms spawned golf ball-sized hail in the greater Denver, Colorado area which led to widespread damage. Total economic losses were estimated at USD1.4 billion, while various insurers have recorded more than 160,000 claims with payouts in excess of USD925 million.

Rounds of heavy rains inundated the greater Chicago metropolitan area between the 22nd and the 24th. The rains prompted significant flooding in some areas, where thousands of homes sustained inundation in basements. The transportation infrastructure was also impacted, where nearly every main highway corridor was affected with floodwaters. Total economic losses were estimated at USD200 million, while various insurers received more than 25,000 claims with payouts in excess of USD125 million.

Tropical Storm Don developed in the southern Gulf of Mexico and made landfall in southern Texas on the 29th. The weak storm dissipated while coming ashore and brought minimal amounts of rainfall to the state.

Rounds of severe thunderstorms accompanied a frontal boundary which traversed through parts of the northern Plains, Midwest and the Northeast between July 29th and August 1st. Large hail (up to golf ball and baseball-sized) and damaging straight-line winds were found in some of the most severe storm cells. Torrential rains also spawned flash flooding in some locations. Total economic losses were listed at approximately USD300 million, while various insurers received more than 50,000 claims with payouts in excess of USD200 million.

29

Impact Forecasting

The combination of a lingering drought and tremendous heat led to ideal wildfire conditions across parts of Oklahoma between July 27th and August 9th that sparked multiple blazes. The most notable wildfire occurred in Pawnee County, where at least 123 structures (including 46 homes) were destroyed. Total economic losses were listed at USD20 million. Another fire destroyed at least 13 homes in addition to other barns and sheds in the town of Edmond.

Rounds of severe weather impacted parts of the Plains, Midwest and the Northeast between the 7th and the 10th as a stationary frontal boundary draped across the region. At least one fatality and multiple injuries were reported. The most notable damage came in the Plains, particularly in Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri. Additional storm damage was reported in parts of the Great Lakes and New England as well.

An advancing cold front spawned severe weather in the Midwest, the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and the Mid-Atlantic on the 13th and 14th. The Chicago, Illinois metropolitan region reported golf ball-sized hail and straight-line winds before the storms continued to strengthen while entering central Indiana. A wind gust of 70 mph (110 kph) caused a concert stage to collapse at the Indiana State Fair, leading to seven fatalities. Elsewhere, additional damage from the activity was recorded in parts of Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Virginia, Maryland and the Carolinas.

Torrential rains spawned flooding in parts of the Ohio Valley and New England on the 13th and 14th. Notable damage came in New Jersey, where as much as 11 inches (280 millimeters) of rain caused extensive damage in Cumberland County. Total infrastructure damages in the county were listed at USD20 million. Parts of Ohio also sustained major effects, particularly in the community of Port Clinton. Additional flood damage was recorded in parts of New York, Pennsylvania and Delaware. Total damages were estimated in excess of USD50 million.

Powerful thunderstorms spawned widespread large hail and straight-line wind damage throughout parts of the Plains on the 18th and 19th. The greater Omaha, Nebraska region was particularly affected as baseball-sized hail caused extensive damage. At the local airport, numerous airplanes and the main terminal sustained severe hail damage. Additional damage was reported in southwest Iowa, northwest Missouri and eastern Kansas. Total economic losses were listed at USD1.1 billion, while various insurers received more than 110,000 claims with total payouts in excess of USD800 million.

A magnitude-5.3 earthquake struck southern Colorado late on the 22nd, causing widespread minor damage. The tremor, with an epicenter 9 miles (15 kilometers) west-southwest of Trinidad, Colorado or 180 miles (290 kilometers) south of Denver, Colorado, damaged some homes and other structures in the state as well as northern New Mexico. The most common

Exhibit 35: United States August Events



(USD)

7/27-8/9 Wildfires Oklahoma 2+ 136+ 20+ million

8/7-8/10 Severe Weather Plains, Midwest, Northeast 1+ Thousands+ Millions+

8/13-8/14 Severe Weather Midwest, Mid-Atlantic 7+ Thousands+ Millions+

8/13-8/14 Flooding Northeast, Ohio Valley 0 Thousands+ 20+ million

8/18-8/19 Severe Weather Plains 0 100,000+ 750+ million

8/22 Earthquake Colorado, New Mexico 0 Hundreds+ Unknown

8/23 Earthquake Mid-Atlantic States 0 1,500+ 250+ million

8/23-8/24 Severe Weather Midwest, Ohio Valley 0 Thousands+ Millions+

8/26-8/28 HU Irene Mid-Atlantic, Northeast 46+ 835,000+ 7.3+ billion

8/30-9/1 Wildfires Texas, Oklahoma 0 77+ Millions+

30


damage type was toppled chimneys and cracked walls. Minor rockslides also left debris on several roadways. According to the USGS, this was the strongest earthquake to strike this region in at least 40 years.

A magnitude-5.8 earthquake struck the Mid-Atlantic region on the 23rd, causing sporadic reports of damage and forcing temporary evacuations. No serious injuries or fatalities were reported. The tremor occurred at 1:51 PM local time (17:51 UTC) with an epicenter 5 miles (8 kilometers) south-southwest of Mineral, Virginia at a depth of 3.7 miles (6 kilometers). The tremor was widely felt throughout the eastern seaboard, including in Washington, D.C., where three pinnacles in the central tower of the National Cathedral broke off in addition to other minor structural damage. The U.S. Park Service reported that cracks were found in the Washington Monument and the Smithsonian Castle. Additional minor damage and isolated incidents of broken gas and water pipes were confirmed in parts of New York, Maryland, New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Closer to the epicenter in Virginia, sporadic damage was reported in the greater Richmond area. Economic losses were listed at approximately USD250 million, with various insurers noted insured losses around USD100 million.

An advancing storm system across parts of the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley spawned reports of severe weather damage on the 23rd and the 24th. An EF-2 tornado with 130 mph (210 kph) winds in Clark County, Wisconsin left at least one person dead. Elsewhere, hail and straight-line wind damage was prevalent throughout parts of Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

Hurricane Irene made three separate landfalls along the East Coast of the U.S. between the 26th and the 28th, bringing torrential rains and very gusty winds from the Carolinas to Maine. At least 46 people were killed and dozens more were injured as Irene prompted a dangerous storm surge in addition to flash floods and river flooding. Nearly eight million power outages were recorded, in addition to more than 13,000 flight cancellations. Widespread damage was recorded to tens of thousands of homes, businesses, other structures and vehicles in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Washington D.C., Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Maine. Total economic losses were in excess of USD7.3 billion, with various insurers recording more than 835,000 claims with payouts at least USD4.3 billion.

Dozens of wildfires were sparked at the end of August in parts of Texas and Oklahoma, as the combination of an extreme drought, triple-digit temperatures and high winds created ideal fire conditions. The most notable fire came in Texas, where the 101 Ranch Fire in Palo Pinto County destroyed at least 39 homes near the town of Brad. In Oklahoma, fires were reported in central sections of the state just to the northeast of Oklahoma City. One particular fire charred more than 4,000 acres (1,620 hectares) of land and destroyed at least 30 homes.

31

Impact Forecasting

Dozens of wildfires were ignited across much of central Texas during the first two weeks of September, destroying more than 2,000 homes and structures. At least four fatalities were recorded. The most destructive fire was the Bastrop County Complex Fire, which was triggered on the 4th just northeast of the city of Bastrop. The blaze charred more than 34,068 acres (13,786 hectares) of land and destroyed at least 1,673 homes. It is the single most destructive wildfire on record in Texas. Other fires destroyed an additional 385 homes. According to the Insurance Council of Texas, in excess of 7,500 claims had already been filed and payouts were anticipated to exceed USD525 million – including USD325 million alone from at least 1,500 claims from the Bastrop fire.

Rounds of severe weather crossed parts of the Great Lakes between the 1st and the 3rd as a storm system slowly moved through the region. The SPC recorded hundreds of reports of hail and damaging winds during the event, which particularly affected parts of Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Total economic losses were approximately USD125 million, while various insurers received at least 15,000 claims with payouts in excess of USD75 million.

Tropical Storm Lee made landfall in south-central Louisiana on the 4th, before its remnants shifted into the Mid-Atlantic and New England. At least 13 fatalities were blamed on the system. The storm brought excessive rains (and isolated severe weather) to many southern and northeastern states, including several still recovering from Hurricane Irene. Heavy rains prompted several rivers in Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey to overflow their banks and flood thousands of homes, businesses and vehicles. Infrastructure damage was widespread as well. Economic flood losses in Pennsylvania alone were estimated at USD1 billion. In terms of insured losses, there were in excess of 100,000 claims filed to various insurers and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Total insured losses topped USD500 million.

Exhibit 36: United States September Events



(USD)

9/1-9/15 Wildfires Texas 4+ 7,500+ 525+ million

9/1-9/3 Severe Weather Great Lakes 0 15,000+ 125+ million

9/4-9/8 TS Lee Southeast, Northeast 13+ 80,000+ 1+ billion

32


Two tornadoes struck portions of South Florida on the 19th, with multiple minor injuries occurring. According to the National Weather Service, an EF-2 twister with winds up to 120 mph (195 kph) tore through a 1.11-mile (1.79-kilometer) path in the greater Sunrise/Plantation area near Miami. At least 50 homes were damaged or destroyed.

A strong, early season Nor’easter brought heavy snow and gusty winds across parts of New England and the Mid-Atlantic between the 28th and the 30th. The system, which was blamed

for the deaths of at least 29 people, caused widespread damage as upwards of two feet (61 centimeters) of heavy, wet snow snapped trees, power lines, power poles and cell phone towers onto homes, businesses and vehicles. Additional damage was reported to the transportation infrastructure from Maryland to Maine. At the height of the event, more than three million power outages were recorded. Total economic losses were estimated to reach USD3 billion, while various insurers received at least 150,000 claims with total insured losses at approximately USD890 million.

Exhibit 37: United States October Events



(USD)

10/19 Severe Weather Florida 0 80+ Unknown

10/28-10/30 Winter Weather Northeast 29+ 150,000+ 3+ billion

33

Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 38: United States November Events



(USD)

11/5 Earthquake Oklahoma 0 Dozens+ Unknown

11/10-11/11 Winter Weather Alaska 0 Hundreds+ 1.8+ million

11/15-11/16 Severe Weather Mississippi Valley, Southeast 6+ Thousands+ Millions+

11/30-12/1 High Winds Southwest 0 45,000+ 225+ million

A rare earthquake struck the state of Oklahoma on the 5th, causing isolated reports of damage and minor injuries. The magnitude-5.6 tremor occurred at 10:53 PM (3:53 UTC on the 6th) with an epicenter eight kilometers (five miles) northwest from Prague, Oklahoma at a shallow depth of 5 kilometers (3.1 miles). According to state officials, the earthquake caused façade damage at more than a dozen homes in Lincoln and Pottawatomie counties and four spires on top of Benedictine Hall at St. Gregory’s University. This was the strongest earthquake ever recorded in Oklahoma’s history.

One of the most powerful storms to affect western Alaska in at least 37 years pummeled the state on the 10th and the 11th. No injuries or fatalities were recorded, though flood and wind damage was prevalent in some areas. According to National Weather Service officials, the system sparked wind gusts in excess of 85 mph (140 kph) with blizzard conditions. A storm surge up to 7 feet (2.13 meters) in height inundated the coastline and left damage in the town of Nome and 36 other native village communities. Total economic losses were listed at more than USD1.8 million.

A strong storm system spawned waves of severe weather across the southern United States on the 15th and 16th, leaving at least six people dead and dozens of others injured. Widespread damage to thousands of homes and structures was prevalent in several states as the storms triggered tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail. Tornado touchdowns occurred in parts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. Total economic losses were estimated in the millions of dollars (USD).

A slow-moving area of low pressure in the Southwest spawned fierce winds on November 30th into December 1st. The system prompted National Weather Service offices to issue high wind warnings across parts of California, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Wyoming. In California, Santa Ana winds gusting in excess of 80 mph (130 kph) downed trees, cut electricity and caused flight delays. Total economic losses were estimated at USD225 million, while various insurers received more than 45,000 claims with payouts in excess of USD175 million.

Exhibit 39: United States December Events



(USD)

12/19-12/21 Winter Weather Southwest, Plains, Midwest 6+ Thousands+ Millions+

A powerful winter storm brought heavy snow and blizzard conditions across parts of the Southwest and the Plains between the 19th and the 21st, killing at least six people. The system, which dumped as much as 18 inches (45 centimeters) of snow in some locations, led to several interstates and highways being

closed in New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Fallen trees, snapped power lines and downed power poles led to widespread damage and power outages across the region as well before later crossing the Midwest.

34


Remainder of North America (Canada, Mexico, Bermuda, Caribbean Islands)

• Hurricane Irene leaves trail of damage and fatalities throughout the Caribbean and the Bahamas

• River flooding in Canada causes more than USD1 billion in economic damages; minimal insured loss

• Major wildfire in Slave Lake, Canada becomes second costliest insured event in nation’s history

Exhibit 40: Remainder of North America January Events



(USD)

1/10-1/13 Winter Weather Canada 0 Hundreds+ Unknown

1/11-1/15 Winter Weather Mexico 16+ Unknown Unknown

1/27-1/28 Winter Weather Canada 0 Hundreds+ Unknown

A Nor’easter spawned winter weather warnings across much of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick between the 10th and the 13th. According to Environment Canada, the system dumped upwards of 25 centimeters (10 inches) of snow in each region before later shifting into the Canadian Maritimes. No injuries or fatalities were reported, though treacherous driving conditions led to the closure of schools and businesses.

A pocket of cold air in Mexico between the 11th and the 15th led to the deaths of at least 16 people. The fatalities were blamed on hypothermia in the states of Chihuahua, Coahuila and Puebla.

A strong winter storm affected the Canadian Maritimes and Atlantic Canada on the 27th and 28th. At least 30 centimeters (12 inches) of snow fell across the region, which led to thousands of residents losing electricity as the heavy snow and gusty winds snapped power lines. The system also forced the cancellation of hundreds of flights at airports in eastern Canada.

Exhibit 41: Remainder of North America February Events



(USD)

2/1-2/2 Winter Weather Canada 0 Dozens+ Unknown

2/15-2/16 Winter Weather Canada 0 Dozens+ Unknown

A major winter storm in the U.S. entered eastern Canada on the 1st and 2nd, bringing additional heavy snow to the region. Parts of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Ontario and Quebec saw snowfall totals ranging between 10 to 30 centimeters (4 to 12 inches) and winds gusting to 50 kph (31 mph), which led to dozens of reports of roof collapses. The storm also caused schools and businesses to be closed and hundreds of flights in the region to be cancelled.

A strong winter storm brought gusty winds and heavy snows to much of Newfoundland and Nova Scotia in Canada on the 15th and 16th. The high winds caused high snow drifts on roads, resulting in the closure of several main highways – including a 30-kilometer (19-mile) stretch of the Trans-Canada Highway between Grand Falls-Windsor and Badger and the Canso Causeway connecting Cape Breton to the Canadian mainland. Due to the extreme driving conditions, schools and several businesses were closed for consecutive days.

35

Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 42: Remainder of North America March Events



(USD)

3/7 Winter Weather Canada 0 Hundreds+ 20.6+ million

A strong winter system affected parts of eastern Canada on the 7th. According to Environment Canada, the province of Quebec saw snow accumulations ranging from 25 to 75 centimeters (10 to 30 inches). The city of Sherbrooke was particularly affected, where snowbound streets paralyzed travel and caused schools and businesses to close. In Montreal, heavy snows cost the city at least CAD20 million (USD20.6 million) to clean-up. No injuries or fatalities were reported.

Exhibit 43: Remainder of North America April Events



(USD)

4/7 Earthquake Mexico 0 Unknown Unknown

A magnitude-6.5 earthquake shook a wide section of southern Mexico on the 7th. The tremor struck at 8:11 AM local time (13:11 UTC) with an epicenter near Las Choapas in the state of Veracruz and was felt as far away as Mexico City. Only minor cracks were reported to local schools and homes near the epicenter primarily due to its deep depth of 167.4 kilometers (104 miles). All refineries and the regional nuclear power plant were all unaffected.

Exhibit 44: Remainder of North America May Events



(USD)

4/14-5/31 Flooding Canada 5+ 10,000+ 1.03+ billion

5/15-5/18 Wildfires Canada 0 522+ 800+ million

River flooding in Manitoba and Quebec provinces in Canada throughout the month led to widespread damage and killed at least five people. In Manitoba, the Red and Assiniboine rivers both crested at record levels across western and southern sections of the province – which led to a 1-in-300 year flood event. Nearly 4,000 homes were affected in the province by the floods and provincial officials reported that total damages to property, agriculture and the transportation infrastructure surpassed CAD1 billion (USD1.03 billion). In Quebec, the Richelieu River saw its worst floods in at least 140 years as more than 3,000 homes were damaged in 20 separate municipalities. The floods along the Richelieu River were also enhanced by a swollen Lake Champlain. Both of these events resulted in limited insured loss as flood is not typically an insured peril for Personal Lines Property in Canada.

Dozens of wildfires broke out across Alberta, Canada between the 15th and the 18th, following a period of very dry conditions with gusty winds. One particular wildfire in Slave Lake led to nearly 40 percent of the town being completely destroyed, including at least 374 homes (57 others severely damaged) and the town’s city hall, library, radio station and numerous other businesses. According to the Insurance Bureau of Canada, total insured losses were listed at CAD700 million (USD695 million), making this the second costliest natural disaster event in Canadian history. Total economic losses were even higher.

36


Nearly ten consecutive days of heavy rains from a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea led to at least 40 fatalities (34 in Haiti, 5 in the Dominican Republic, 1 in Jamaica) between the 1st and the 10th. In Haiti, the rains led to flash flooding and mudslides destroyed hundreds of homes and shanties in Port-au-Prince. Additional damage occurred in the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

A strong storm system crossed Ontario, Canada on the 8th, triggering severe weather which led to widespread property damage throughout the greater Toronto metropolitan region. At least one tornado touchdown was reported, though most of the damage was blamed on hail and high winds. Lightning strikes triggered 15 fires that damaged multiple homes. More than 150,000 Hydro One customers lost electricity during the height of the event as the storm caused extensive damage to parts of the electrical infrastructure. One storm-related fatality was reported.

Hurricane Beatriz developed and skirted the Mexican coastline from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes on the 20th and the 21st. According to Mexican officials, Beatriz spawned heavy rains and periods of gusty winds across the states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Guerrero, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán. At least three fatalities were blamed on the storm. Damage was generally minimal, though dozens of properties reported lost roofs.

Areas along the Souris River in south-central sections of Canada saw flood inundation between the 21st through the 30th. At least 44 homes were damaged or destroyed by the floods in southeastern Saskatchewan. As the high water levels flowed northward out of North Dakota and into southwestern Manitoba, cresting occurred in early July.

Tropical Storm Arlene developed in the Bay of Campeche before making landfall as a 65 mph (100 kph) cyclone near Cabo Rojo, Mexico early on the 30th. Following landfall, the storm caused flooding and landslide damage across the states of Veracruz, Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosi. At least 25 storm-related fatalities occurred in addition to 50,000 homes being damaged. Total damages were listed in the millions of dollars (USD).

Exhibit 45: Remainder of North America June Events



(USD)

6/1-6/10 Flooding Hispaniola, Jamaica 40+ Hundreds+ Unknown

6/8 Severe Weather Canada 1+ Thousands+ Unknown

6/20-6/21 HU Beatriz Mexico 3+ 100+ Unknown

6/21-6/30 Flooding Canada 0 Hundreds+ Unknown

6/30 TS Arlene Mexico 25+ 50,000+ Millions+

37

Impact Forecasting

Tropical rains in the Caribbean Sea spawned flooding throughout the Dominican Republic between the 5th and 7th. At least one person was killed after the heavy rains spawned flash flooding and mudslides. More than 1,900 homes in central and southern sections of the country were damaged or destroyed.

Remnant moisture from what would become Major Hurricane Dora in the Pacific Ocean brought heavy rainfall between the 15th and the 17th to southern sections of Mexico and Guatemala. At least five people were killed and dozens more were injured. The Mexican state of Oaxaca was heavily impacted as an emergency declaration was made for 42 of the state’s

570 municipalities. Flash floods and landslides were the largest culprit of the damage and fatalities, though several rivers and streams overflowed their banks in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec region. As many as 40,000 homes were affected.

Rounds of severe weather affected four Canadian provinces between the 17th and the 19th, leaving at least two people dead. The storms brought damaging winds in excess of 120 kph (75 mph) and large hail (up to baseball-sized) to parts of eastern Ontario, western Quebec, eastern Alberta and Saskatchewan. According to provincial insurers in Saskatchewan, more than 1,000 home and auto claims were filed with total losses well into the millions of dollars (USD).

Exhibit 46: Remainder of North America July Events



(USD)

7/5-7/7 Flooding Dominican Republic 0 1,900+ Unknown

7/15-7/17 Flooding Mexico, Guatemala 5+ 40,000+ Unknown

7/17-7/19 Severe Weather Canada 2+ 1,000+ Millions+

Exhibit 47: Remainder of North America August Events



(USD)

8/3-8/7 TS Emily Hispaniola, Puerto Rico 5+ 10,000+ 60+ million

8/9 Flooding Canada 0 405+ 8.03+ million

8/21-8/24 Severe Weather Canada 1+ 2,000+ 250+ million

8/22-8/26 HU Irene Caribbean, Bahamas, Canada 9+ Thousands+ 1.25+ billion

Tropical Storm Emily affected the eastern and central Caribbean Islands between the 3rd and the 7th, leaving at least five people dead. Minor damage was reported in Martinique and Guadeloupe, though more notable effects were felt in Puerto Rico. The storm caused at least USD5 million in infrastructure damage and forced a two-day work suspension that prompted an additional USD55 million loss to the economy. Hispaniola was also impacted, where five fatalities were reported in addition to nearly 8,000 homes being damaged.

A powerful storm system spawned torrential rainfall that flooded hundreds of homes in the town of Amherstburg, Ontario on the 9th. According to multiple insurers, at least 405 homes sustained flood inundation with losses topping CAD8 million (USD8.03 million).

Rounds of severe weather swept across parts of eastern Canada between the 21st and the 24th, highlighted by the strongest tornado to touch down in the country in 15 years. The twister struck the town of Goderich in Ontario, Canada with winds up

38


to 240 kph (150 mph) – an EF-3 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. Significant damage occurred across a nearly 1.5-kilometer-wide (0.93-mile) path throughout the town as hundreds of homes were directly impacted, in addition to 150 other businesses, churches and the town’s port and historic downtown. At least one fatality and 37 minor injuries were blamed on the twister. Total economic losses were listed in excess of CAD252 million (USD250 million), while the Insurance Bureau of Canada listed insured losses from the Goderich tornado alone at CAD75 million (USD73 million). Aon Benfield Canada estimated total insured losses from the entire event at CAD200 million (USD198 million).

Major Hurricane Irene developed and impacted parts of the Caribbean and the Bahamas between the 22nd and the 26th, leaving at least eight people dead. Puerto Rico sustained widespread damage throughout the island, where at least one fatality was reported. The Puerto Rican government estimated that damages would exceed USD500 million, with an additional USD149.4 million in lost productivity to the public and private

sectors. Similar damage was reported in Hispaniola, where more than 37,700 homes were affected across 88 separate communities in the Dominican Republic. At least four people were killed and economic losses were listed at DOP1 billion (USD26.3 million). In Haiti, the torrential rains led to three fatalities. Reports out of Martinique, Guadeloupe, the Virgin Islands, St. Thomas and St. Croix noted that damage was largely minimal. As the system headed into the Bahamas, major damage occurred on Cat, Mayaguana, Acklins and Crooked Islands. Government reports noted that upwards of 90 percent of all homes and structures on the islands were damaged. On the islands of Grand Turk, New Providence and Grand Bahama, damage was limited though still notable. Total Caribbean economic losses were estimated at nearly USD1.25 billion, with combined insured losses listed around USD1 billion. According to Aon Benfield Canada, at least USD148 million of the insured losses occurred in Canada, with the rest primarily coming from damage in the Bahamas.

Exhibit 48: Remainder of North America September Events



(USD)

9/19 Earthquakes Guatemala 3+ 388+ Unknown

Six separate earthquakes struck southwestern Guatemala near Santa Rosa during a 10-hour span on the 19th. At least three people were killed and 13 others were injured as 400 homes were damaged. Windows were shattered in highrise buildings and the transportation infrastructure was impacted, including several points on the Pan American Highway blocked by landslides.

39

Impact Forecasting

November

There were no significant natural disaster events during the month of November.

Exhibit 50: Remainder of North America December Events



(USD)

12/10 Earthquake Mexico 2+ Hundreds+ Unknown

A strong earthquake rattled parts of Mexico on the 10th, causing isolated reports of damage and leading to the deaths of at least three people. The magnitude-6.5 tremor struck at 7:47 PM local time (1:47 UTC Sunday) with an epicenter 42 kilometers (26 miles) southwest of Iguala, Mexico or 166 kilometers (103 miles) south-southwest of Mexico City at a depth of 64.9 kilometers

(40.3 miles). Reports of damage were largely isolated and confined to areas closed to the epicenter in the coastal state of Guerrero. Some roof collapses and facade damage were noted, though widespread significant structural impacts did not occur. In Mexico City itself, highrise buildings swayed but no damage was reported.

Exhibit 49: Remainder of North America October Events



(USD)

10/11-10/12 HU Jova Mexico 6+ Hundreds+ 27.7+ million

10/11-10/21 TD 12-E Central America 115+ 25,000+ Unknown

Hurricane Jova developed and made landfall in west-central Mexico late on the 11th, coming ashore near the town of Chamela in Jalisco state as a Category 2 storm with 100 mph (160 kph) winds. The storm dumped heavy rains across the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán as flash floods and landslides led to the deaths of at least seven people. Damage (primarily due to flood inundation) was reported to homes, businesses, agriculture and the transportation infrastructure after several rivers overflowed their banks. Total economic losses were listed at MXN370 million (USD27.7 million).

Ten days of rainfall from the remnants of Tropical Depression 12-E and additional tropical moisture led to the deaths of at least 115 people across much of Central America and southern Mexico between the 11th and the 21st. Fatalities were recorded in Guatemala (38), El Salvador (34), Honduras (15), Nicaragua (13), Mexico (10) and Costa Rica (5), in addition to widespread damage to property, infrastructure and agriculture. Tens of thousands of homes and businesses were damaged by flash floods and dozens of rivers overflowing their banks. More than 1 million people were directly impacted by the event.

40


Two weeks of torrential rains (which fell between December 25, 2010 and January 6, 2011) triggered landslides and flooding that left at least 35 people dead. The most affected state was Minas Gerais, though the states of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Espirito Santo also reported damage. More than 30,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, along with wide swaths of agricultural crops and infrastructure.

An extended period of heavy rainfall and flooding affected much of Bolivia between the start of the new year through early March. At least 52 people died due river flooding. More than 68,000 people were affected in the departments of La Paz, Cochabamba, Chuquisaca, Oruro, Potosi and Beni. The government allocated BOB140 million (USD20 million) for recovery efforts.

The most deadly natural disaster in Brazilian history occurred between the 10th and 14th after a series of massive mudslides occurred in the Serrano mountain region. The flooding and slides were blamed on days of torrential rains that oversaturated the soil. The most affected states were Sao Paolo and Rio de Janeiro, where at least 903 people died. A total of 405 people died in Nova Friburgo, 344 in Teresopolis, 67 in Petropolis and 22 in Sumiduoro in Sao Paolo state. According to government officials, more than 21,500 homes, businesses and other structures were destroyed. Total economic losses were listed at BRL2 billion (USD1.2 billion).

Two weeks of torrential rains led to at least six fatalities in Brazil’s Santa Catarina state between the 20th and the 31st. More than 21,000 homes in 71 separate cities were damaged by floods and landslides.

South America

• Significant flooding and landslides in Colombia leave billions (USD) in damage

• Deadliest natural disaster event in Brazil’s history leaves more than 900 dead due series of mudslides

• Severe weather activity in Brazil spawns hundreds of millions (USD) in economic losses

Exhibit 51: South America January Events



(USD)

12/25-1/6 Flooding Brazil 35+ 30,000+ Unknown

1/1-3/5 Flooding Bolivia 52+ 25,000+ 20+ million

1/1-5/31 Flooding Colombia 116+ 375,000+ 5.85+ billion

1/10-1/14 Flooding Brazil 903+ 21,500+ 1.2+ billion


Exhibit 52: South America February Events



(USD)

2/27-4/11 Landslides Bolivia 56+ 20,000+ Unknown

Heavy rainfall between the end of February and early April led to a mudslides and flooding throughout Bolivia, including capital of La Paz. According to the government, at least 20,000 homes and long stretches of roads were destroyed during the timeframe.

41

Impact Forecasting

Consecutive days of heavy rain led to renewed flooding across parts of southern Brazil between the 10th and the 14th. At least 10 people were killed and more than 31,000 others were left homeless in the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Espirito Santo and Parana. Widespread damage to tens of thousands of homes was prevalent, and the agricultural, transportation and electrical infrastructures all sustained significant effects as well. In the town of Sao Lourenco do Sul,

over 1,000 farms (primarily growing tobacco, corn and soybean crops) were damaged by floods. Landslides and floods also blocked highways and damaged more than 40 bridges.

Areas along the west coast of South America were affected by the massive magnitude-9.0 earthquake that struck Japan on the 11th. Reports indicated that 300 homes were damaged in the towns of Pueblo Nuevo de Colan and Pisco in Peru, and 200 additional coastal homes were destroyed Chile.

Exhibit 53: South America March Events



(USD)

3/10-3/14 Flooding Brazil 10+ 25,000+ Millions+

3/11 Tsunami Chile, Peru 0 500+ Unknown

Exhibit 54: South America April Events



(USD)

4/3-21 Flooding Peru 9+ 5,500+ Unknown

4/25-4/26 Severe Weather Brazil 1+ 5,000+ 255+ million

Several weeks of torrential rains led to flooding and landslides throughout Peru. In the southern city of Cusco, a large landslide struck on the 3rd that left at least nine people dead. The landslide occurred after the rains caused soils on Ayahuyco Hill to loosen, which triggered the collapse which fell on the Villa Maria region of the city. Floods damaged nearly 5,500 homes across the country.

Severe weather on the 25th and 26th occurred in the city of Rio, Brazil, killing at least one person and injuring dozens of others. Flooding was widespread throughout the city, with the neighborhoods of Maracana and Praca de Bandeira sustaining the brunt of the damage. Reports indicated that the floods and landslides caused significant damage to homes, businesses and the transportation infrastructure. The Brazilian government released BRL400 million (USD255 million) for relief and recovery efforts.

42


Major ongoing flooding continued to affect Colombia, which was inundated with persistent rainfall that began in April 2010. At least 1,027 out of 1,100 municipalities within 28 of the nation’s 32 provinces sustained significant flood and landslide damage. According to official government statistics, at least 116 fatalities were recorded in 2011. More than 1.06 million hectares (2.5 million acres) of land were submerged, and more than 12,000 homes were destroyed and nearly 360,000 others were

damaged. Tens of thousands of additional schools, businesses, medical facilities and other structures were directly impacted. The transportation infrastructure was also decimated by landslides that covered national roads and municipal highways, and swollen rivers destroyed dozens of major bridges and levee/dyke systems. The Colombian government noted that the floods from 2011 alone had a COP10.44 trillion (USD5.85 billion) economic impact.

Exhibit 55: South America May Events



(USD)

1/1-5/31 Flooding Colombia 116+ 375,000+ 5.85+ billion

Exhibit 56: South America June Events



(USD)

6/1-6/6 Flooding Brazil 0 1,000+ 9.4+ million

6/4-6/15 Volcano Chile 0 Unknown Unknown

6/7 Severe Weather Chile 0 100+ Unknown

Six consecutive days of heavy rains between the 1st and the 6th led to the worst floods since 1976 in the northern Brazilian state of Roraima. According to government officials, a state of emergency was declared after several rivers overflowed their banks. The Branco River, which rose to a record-high 10.02 meters (32.87 feet), flooded many areas in Roraima – including the capital of Boa Vista, which saw 80 percent of its neighborhoods inundated. The flood also submerged several main roads and federal highways. Total damages were listed at BRL15 million (USD9.4 million).

Chile’s Cordon Caulle volcano erupted for the first time since 1960 on the 4th, sending a 10-kilometer-high (six-mile) plume of ash that affected parts of South America and even areas as far away as Australia and New Zealand. The volcano covered the Chilean resorts of San Carlos de Bariloche and Villa la Angostura with ash, which was measured at up to 50 centimeters (29 inches) deep on some nearby roads and farms. Outside of Chile, ash from Cordon Caulle led to the cancellation of domestic and international flights throughout Latin America.

A powerful thunderstorm ripped through a Chilean resort town on the 7th, injuring dozens of people. At least 100 homes were damaged in the town of Villarrica after large hail pelted the area and a suspected tornado with 200 kph (125 mph) winds touched down.

43

Impact Forecasting

Persistent heavy rains between the 16th and the 18th led to widespread flooding in northeastern Brazil, leaving at least 10 people dead in the states of Pernambuco and Paraiba. A state of emergency was declared in 28 separate towns as more than 1,000 homes were damaged from flooding and mudslides. A water supply station and 16 dams were also severely damaged. In terms of the transportation infrastructure, high water levels and debris led to the closure of several main roadways.

Heavy rainfall between the 23rd and the 28th in Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul state led to the deaths of at least three people. At least 27 towns within 16 municipalities declared a state of emergency and damage during the event. State officials reported that more than 123,000 residents were affected, particularly after six rivers had breached flood stage.

Exhibit 57: South America July Events



(USD)


7/23-7/28 Flooding Brazil 3+ Thousands+ Unknown

August

There were no significant natural disaster events in South America during the month of August.

Exhibit 58: South America September Events



(USD)

9/6-9/9 Flooding Brazil 3+ 48,000+ Millions+

Brazil’s Santa Catarina state declared a state of emergency after four days of rain ending on the 9th caused significant flooding in 15 separate towns. At least three people were killed after several rivers (including the Itajai-Acu River) overflowed their banks. More than 680,000 residents were left homeless after 48,000 homes were inundated. Landslides also closed several state highways.

Exhibit 59: South America October Events



(USD)

10/28 Earthquake Peru 0 200+ Unknown

A magnitude-6.9 earthquake rattled the central coast of Peru on the 28th, leaving at least 103 people injured. The offshore tremor destroyed more than 134 homes and damaged several businesses and churches near the city of Ica.

44


Days of heavy rainfall led to a massive mudslide in the Colombian city of Manizales on the 5th, killing at least 48 people and injuring dozens of others. The slide destroyed at least 14 homes in the Cervantes neighborhood. On the 6th, at least seven additional people were killed in the city of Cali after a swollen river burst its banks. Widespread damage was reported to dozens of homes in the region.

Exhibit 60: South America November Events



(USD)

11/5-11/6 Flooding Colombia 55+ 100+ Unknown

Exhibit 61: South America December Events



(USD)

12/5-12/16 Flooding Colombia 21+ 10,000+ Unknown

12/6-12/8 Flooding Venezuela 8+ 4,800+ 15.8+ million


Consecutive days of rain across central and eastern sections of Colombia between the 5th and the 16th triggered a series of landslides and river flooding. In Herveo municipality in Tolima Province, a large landslide crushed a home and killed at least seven people; while six additional people were killed in Santander Province. The most significant impacts came in Bogota after the Bogota River overflowed its banks and damaged at least 10,000 homes. More than 700 farms were also submerged, and the region’s sewer system collapsed. Eight additional fatalities occurred in Caldas after a large landslide struck.

Persistent heavy rains spawned flooding and mudslides across parts of Venezuela between the 6th and the 8th, killing at least eight people. The government reported that VEB60

million (USD15.8 million) had been released for disaster relief. Widespread damage from the floods and mudslides were reported across multiple states, including Miranda, Zulia, Merida, Tachira, Caracas and Trujillo. More than 4,800 homes sustained flood inundation and at least 1,096 of those homes were listed as destroyed. In addition to the structural damage, it was reported that significant impacts had occurred to the transportation and electrical infrastructures.

At least two people were killed in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais after consecutive days of heavy rains between the 16th and the 18th inundated 19 separate towns. Local Civil Defense officials reported that more than 1,500 homes and 14 bridges were damaged or destroyed.

45

Impact Forecasting

The combination of warming temperatures and rainfall led to melting of a large snowpack across parts of Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic. The most notable floods occurred in Germany, where at least five people were killed. Thousands of homes, businesses, agriculture and other personal property were damaged across nearly every section of the country. The floods also inundated large swaths of the transportation infrastructure. The high river waters forced several main ports to temporarily shut down shipping routes, including a 140-kilometer (90-mile) stretch between Cologne and Bingen. Total economic losses were well into the millions of dollars (USD).

A magnitude-4.3 earthquake rattled parts of Hungary on the 29th. The tremor struck in the seismic zone known as the Danube Bend. According to the National Disaster Management Agency, minor damage to buildings occurred (mostly small cracks in facades) primarily near the epicenter in the town of Oroszlany. Insurers received 17,000 claims, with payouts totaling HUF2.1 billion (USD9.4 million). Total economic losses were slightly higher.

Europe

• Early November floods inundate parts of France and Italy; insured losses in excess of USD1 billion

• Magnitude-7.2 earthquake kills at least 604 people in eastern Turkey

• Major flash flood and river flood event in early July strikes Denmark

Exhibit 62: Europe January Events



(USD)

1/9-1/14 Flooding Germany, Poland, Czech Republic 5+ Thousands+ Millions+

1/29 Earthquake Hungary 0 17,000+ 15+ million

Exhibit 63: Europe February Events



(USD)

2/1-2/28 Winter Weather Poland 29+ Unknown Unknown

An extended severe cold spell affected Poland as the death toll rose to 29, with the majority of the deaths blamed on hypothermia as temperatures fell to -20°C (-4°F) in the cities of Warsaw and Bialystok. The cold also led to transportation effects as 25 separate train services were cancelled across the country due to extreme levels of frost.

March

There were no significant natural disaster events in Europe during the month of March.

46


A storm system brought heavy rain, snow and very gusty winds across parts of Scandinavia between the 8th and the 10th. In Norway, high winds tore the roofs off of homes and other structures, with insurance companies noting a large number of claims having been filed. In Iceland, emergency rescue officials responded to more than 400 damage reports – primarily due to

blown off roofs and downed trees. At the Keflavik International Airport, a large hole was ripped at the Icelandair hangar which forced passengers to remain on their aircraft. Several main roads were forced to close due to the excessive wind and precipitation.

Exhibit 64: Europe April Events



(USD)

4/8-4/10 Severe Weather Iceland, Norway 0 500+ Unknown

Exhibit 65: Europe May Events



(USD)

5/12 Earthquakes Spain 9+ 33,000+ 400+ million

5/19 Earthquake Turkey 3+ 2,500+ 260+ million

5/21-5/25 Volcano Western & Central Europe 0 Unknown 50+ million

5/23 Severe Weather Scotland 1+ Hundreds+ 6.5+ million

Two earthquakes rattled southern Spain on the 12th, leaving at least nine people dead and 400 others injured in the town of Lorca. According to the United States Geological Survey, the first tremor (a magnitude-4.5) struck at 5:05 PM local time (15:05 UTC) with an epicenter 55 kilometers (34 miles) southwest of Murcia, Spain. The second temblor, a stronger magnitude-5.1, struck shortly after at 6:47 PM local time (16:47 UTC) with an epicenter 50 kilometers (31 miles) southwest of Murcia, Spain. At least 20,000 homes and other structures sustained various levels of damage (approximately 10 percent of all homes). The transportation infrastructure was also affected, with numerous roads showing large cracks. Additional damage was reported in the areas of Totana, Albacete and Velez-Rubio in Almeria. Insured losses were listed at EUR259 million (USD359 million), with total economic losses in excess of EUR 289 million (USD400 million).

A moderate earthquake rattled western sections of Turkey on the 19th, leaving at least three people dead and more than 125 others injured. The magnitude-5.8 tremor struck at 11:15 pm local time (20:15 UTC) with an epicenter 80 kilometers (50 miles) west-southwest from Kutahya, Turkey at a depth of 9.1 kilometers (5.7 miles). Widespread significant damage was not reported, though upwards of 2,500 buildings in the town of Simav

sustained structural effects. Most of Simav lost electricity and telecommunications in the hours that followed. Total economic losses were estimated at TRY460 million (USD260 million), with insured losses only TRY7.86 million (USD4.3 million).

Iceland’s Grímsvötn volcano erupted on the 21st, sending ash and steam as high as 20 kilometers (12.4 miles) into the air. In the four days that followed, the ash plume crossed the Atlantic into western and central Europe. Parts of Scotland, northern England, Germany, Poland, Russia and Scandinavia reported volcanic ash, which led to temporary flight cancellations and airport closures. Approximately 1,600 flights were cancelled (mostly in Scotland and airports in Hamburg, Bremen and Berlin in Germany) before the ash began to clear. Airlines noted that total business interruption losses were approximately EUR35 million (USD50 million).

A powerful storm brought winds gusting to nearly 115 mph (185 kph) across parts of Scotland on the 23rd, killing at least one person. According to government officials, the storm tore the roofs off of hundreds of homes and businesses. In addition to property damage, farmers noted crop damage at GBP4 million (USD6.5 million).

47

Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 66: Europe June Events



(USD)

6/28 Severe Weather Netherlands 0 Hundreds+ Millions+

Strong thunderstorms ripped through parts of the Netherlands on the 28th, causing localized damage primarily in the southern province of North Brabant. Local media in the towns of Boxmeer and Vught reported that torrential rains, hail and damaging winds

led to downed trees, flooding and the rupturing of some gas lines. Debris covered railways also caused delays on Dutch Rail. The Dutch Association of Insurers reported that damages were anticipated to reach into the millions of Euros.

Exhibit 67: Europe July Events



(USD)

7/2-7/3 Flooding Denmark 0 60,000+ 1+ billion

7/8 Flooding Scotland 0 100+ 1+ million

Some of the heaviest rains in at least 25 years fell in the Denmark capital of Copenhagen and surrounding areas on the 2nd and 3rd. At least 1,700 separate residential homes and hundreds of other businesses reported flood inundation, with Danish police forced to close four major highways surrounding Copenhagen. Thecity’s main train station, Hovedbanegården, was closed due to downed switching signals, muddy tracks and washed out roads. The Danish Insurance Association reported having received 60,000 claims with total payouts exceeding DKK4.75 billion (USD880 million). Total economic losses were slightly higher.

A torrential rainstorm on the 8th led to widespread flooding in southern and western sections of Edinburgh in Scotland. According to officials from Lothian and Borders Fire and Rescue, the flash floods damaged at least 40 homes and flooded dozens of cars. Multiple businesses were damaged as well. The Edinburgh Chamber of Commerce reported that damage costs were anticipated to reach at least USD1 million.

Exhibit 68: Europe August Events



(USD)

8/18 Severe Weather Belgium 5+ Unknown 105+ million

A severe thunderstorm brought extremely gusty winds and large hail to the town of Hasselt, Belgium on the 18th. At least five people were killed and 71 others were injured at an outdoor music festival after major damage occurred to the main stage area. Total economic losses were listed at EUR76 million (USD105 million).

48


The post-tropical remnants of Hurricane Katia quickly crossed the Atlantic, and came ashore in the United Kingdom on the 12th. At least one person was killed as the system brought periods of very gusty winds, high surf and heavy rains. Widespread damage was reported in northern sections of Britain, Scotland,

Wales and Ireland. The majority of the damage was torn off roofs, downed trees and flooding. The Association of British Insurers (ABI) reported that the combination of damage, clean-up costs and business interruptions were at least GBP100 million (USD158 million).

Exhibit 69: Europe September Events



(USD)

9/12-9/13 PT Katia United Kingdom 1+ Hundreds+ 158+ million

Exhibit 70: Europe October Events



(USD)

10/23 Earthquake Turkey 604+ 15,000+ 750+ million

10/23-10/26 Flooding Italy, Ireland, Spain 10+ Hundreds+ 92+ million

A powerful earthquake struck eastern Turkey on the 23rd, killing at least 604 people and leaving more than 4,152 others injured. The magnitude-7.2 earthquake struck at 1:41 PM local time (10:41 UTC) with an epicenter 16 kilometers (9 miles) north-northeast of Van, Turkey at a relatively shallow depth of 20 kilometers (12.4 miles). Widespread substantial damage occurred throughout Van Province, with at least 11,232 buildings listed as destroyed or having sustained severe effects. Multi-level buildings, hotels, businesses and dormitories were all impacted. Dozens of villages near the epicenter, where construction was poor, saw thousands of additional homes collapse. Economic loss estimates were at least TRY1.33 trillion (USD750 million), with insured losses listed at approximately TRY54.8 million (USD30 million).

A strong storm system spawned torrential rains, flooding and mudslides across parts of Europe between the 23rd and the 26th. At least 10 fatalities were recorded. In Italy, the worst affected areas came in the regions of Tuscany and Liguria, with the villages of Cinque Terre, Spezia, Aulla, Five Lands and Borghetto Vara sustaining the most significant damage. The floods swept away roads and bridges, and damaged hundreds of homes and businesses. The government released EUR65 million (USD92 million) for recovery efforts. Both Ireland and Spain saw inundation as well after several rivers overflowed their banks and damaged homes, businesses and infrastructure.

49

Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 72: Europe December Events



(USD)

12/8-12/10 WS Friedhelm United Kingdom, Scandinavia 0 1,000+ 156+ million

12/15-12/17 WS Joachim France, Germany, Switzerland 0 Thousands+ 325+ million

12/25-12/27 WS Dagmar Norway, Finland, Sweden 1+ 7,000+ 177+ million

A slow-moving extratropical area of low pressure (named ‘Rolf’) in the Mediterranean Sea brought consecutive days of torrential rains and gusty winds across portions of France and Italy between the 3rd and the 7th. French officials noted that 16 southern departments sustained impacts as several rivers overflowed their banks and inundated homes, businesses and vehicles. Some of the notable affected cities were Vallerague, Sablières, Loubaresse, Draguignan, Arles and Cannes. At least three fatalities were recorded. In Italy, several cities (including Genoa, Milan, Venice and Turin) sustained various levels of flood inundation to hundreds of properties and vehicles. At least seven people died.

France’s state-owned CCR Group noted that total insured losses in the country alone were EUR800 million (USD1.09 billion). Total economic losses were slightly higher.

A magnitude-5.6 aftershock rattled eastern Turkey on the 9th, killing at least 40 people and injuring dozens more. The tremor struck at 9:23 PM local time (19:23 UTC) with an epicenter 16 kilometers (9 miles) south of Van, Turkey. According to Turkish officials, at least 25 buildings collapsed in the city of Van with hundreds of others sustaining cracking. The tremor was an aftershock of the magnitude-7.2 earthquake which struck on October 23rd.

Exhibit 71: Europe November Events



(USD)

11/3-11/7 Flooding Italy, France 10+ Thousands+ 1.25+ billion

11/9 Earthquake Turkey 40+ Hundreds+ Unknown

Windstorm Friedhelm developed and swept across parts of the United Kingdom and Scandinavia between the 8th and the 10th, bringing extremely gusty winds, heavy rainfall and flooding that caused widespread damage. Scotland was the most affected as winds gusting in excess of 170 kph (105 mph) prompted the closure of schools, businesses and public transport services. In the town of Strathclyde, at least 500 weather-related incidents were recorded; while additional damage reports came in Glasgow, Campbeltown, Falkirk, Stirling, Dalry, Ardrossan and Aberdeen. Outside of Scotland, isolated reports of river flooding and wind damage were recorded in parts of Ireland, England, Wales, Finland and Sweden. Total economic losses have been estimated by professional services firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) at approximately GBP100 million (USD156 million). The loss estimate includes business interruption and electricity restoration costs. Insured losses were listed as minimal.

Windstorm Joachim came ashore across the northwest coast of France on the 15th while triggering wind gusts in excess of 150 kph (90 mph). According to France’s weather service, Météo-France, Joachim came ashore with a minimum central pressure of

973 millibars (28.81 inches of mercury). At least 600,000 power outages were reported throughout the country, in addition to severe travel disruptions. A cargo ship ran aground in the Brittany region, which resulted in the leakage of fuel. The system later moved inland before affecting parts of Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and other countries in the region, where additional travel impacts and damage was reported. The French Federation of Insurance Companies estimated losses from the event at up to EUR250 million (USD325 million).

Windstorm Dagmar developed and swept across parts of the between the 25th and the 27th, leaving at least one person dead. In terms of damage and effects, the most significant impacts came in Norway – where at least 6,000 claims had been filed. Total insured losses were anticipated to exceed NOK275 million (USD46 million). In Finland, the Federation of Finnish Financial Services reported that insured losses may exceed EUR100 million (USD131 million) due to excessive damage being prevalent in some areas. Similar impacts were felt in Sweden after hurricane-force winds engulfed parts of the country. Fallen trees and debris damaged hundreds of homes and covered local roads.

50


At least 123 people died across the South African provinces of Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal after consecutive weeks of flooding and severe weather inundated the region. Disaster zones were declared in 33 separate areas, including in parts of Johannesburg. More than 25,000 homes were damaged along with thousands of hectares (acres) of crops after the Orange River overflowed its banks. An additional 13 people died and 13,000

homes were destroyed in floods in neighboring Mozambique after the Zambezi River overflowed. Parts of Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe also reported widespread flood damage. Total economic losses to property and agriculture in South Africa were listed at ZAR3.55 billion (USD495 million). Local insurers received at least 1,300 claims with payouts totaling ZAR30 million (USD4.13 million).

Africa

• January floods inundate parts of southern Africa; more than 135 people killed

• Cyclone Bingiza comes ashore in Madagascar

• Extensive flooding in Nigeria leaves more than 100 people dead

Exhibit 73: Africa January Events



(USD)

1/1-1/31 Flooding South Africa, Mozambique 136+ 38,000+ 495+ million

Exhibit 74: Africa February Events



(USD)

2/14-2/16 CY Bingiza Madagascar, Mozambique 35+ 35,729+ Unknown

Tropical Cyclone Bingiza made separate landfalls in Madagascar on the 14th and the 16th, causing damage and leaving at least 35 people dead. The first landfall occurred after the cyclone tracked across the Masoala Peninsula and skirted Antongil Bay. The three most affected districts were Maroantsetra, Mananara North and Mandritsara as assessments indicated that at least 26,129 homes,

and other structures were destroyed by the storm’s winds and flooding rains. Agriculture and the transportation infrastructure were also heavily damaged. In Mozambique, at least 9,600 homes sustained flood damage in the Zambezi Valley from heavy rains triggered by Bingiza.

Exhibit 75: Africa March Events



(USD)

3/1-4/12 Flooding Namibia 65+ 30,000+ 15+ million

Heavy rains fell across northern sections of Namibia between the early March and mid-April, leading to the deaths of at least 65 people in the village of Oshakati. The regions of Oshana, Ohangwena, Caprivi and Omusati were the most affected with 30,000 homes and structures damaged. Total economic damages were NAD100 million (USD15 million).

51

Impact Forecasting

Torrential rains in northern Nigeria on the 21st and 22nd prompted major flooding in the towns of Kano, Lagos and other nearby cities. At least 24 people were killed and more than 150 others were injured after the floods inundated numerous neighborhoods. According to the News Agency of Nigeria,

the flash floods damaged hundreds of homes and other commercial properties. Additional damage was reported to the transportation infrastructure and vehicles. Economic costs were at least NIO100 million (USD4.5 million).

April / May

There were no significant natural disaster events in Africa during the month of April or May.

Exhibit 76: Africa June Events



(USD)

6/21-6/22 Flooding Nigeria 24+ 1,000+ 4.5+ million

Exhibit 77: Africa July Events



(USD)

7/22-7/29 Flooding Benin 0 1,000+ Unknown

Excessive rainfall spawned major flooding across the communities of Lokossa, Athiémé Bopa and Cotonou Littoral in Benin between the 22nd and the 29th. The local Red Cross reported that at least 1,000 homes were destroyed and several roads were submerged. There were no reports of fatalities or injuries.

Exhibit 78: Africa August Events



(USD)

8/10-8/31 Flooding Uganda 43+ 30,000+ Unknown

8/20-8/31 Flooding Nigeria 102+ 10,000+ Unknown

Excessive rains, which fell persistently throughout the month of August, prompted significant flooding in eastern, western and southwestern sections of Uganda. Red Cross officials reported that more than 30,000 homes had been damaged or destroyed by floodwaters, which impacted at least 150,000 people. Tens of thousands of hectares (acres) of crops were also submerged by the floods. At least 43 fatalities were recorded as separate large landslides in Bulambuli district crushed dozens of homes at the foothills of the Elgon Mountains.

Weeks of heavy rains between the 20th and the 31st led to the deaths of at least 102 people across nearly every section of Nigeria. Officials from the National Emergency Management Agency reported that the rains spawned flash flooding and also caused rivers and streams to overflow their banks. The states of Bauchi and Oyo were affected most severely, where at least 10,000 homes were destroyed and tens of thousands of hectares (acres) of cropland were submerged. Hundreds of livestock also perished.

52


Several days of torrential rains in the El-Bayadh region of Algeria at the end of September into early October led to the deaths of at least 10 people. Significant damage occurred to thousands of homes and vehicles, in addition to the transportation and

agricultural infrastructures after both flash flood and river flooding swept through the region. Total economic losses were listed at DZD59.7 billion (USD803 million).

Exhibit 79: Africa September Events



(USD)

9/30-10/1 Flooding Algeria 10+ Thousands+ 803+ million

Exhibit 80: Africa October Events



(USD)

10/2 Severe Weather South Africa 1+ 1,000+ Unknown

10/20-10/28 Flooding Nigeria 10+ 25,000+ Unknown

Rounds of severe weather impacted parts of South Africa on the 2nd, spawning multiple tornado touchdowns. At least one person was killed after tornadoes damaged or destroyed nearly 1,000 homes in the towns of Ficksburg and Duduza. More than 285 people were injured.

Nearly 10 days of heavy rainfall (beginning on October 20th) spawned widespread flooding across southern and central sections of Nigeria. At least 10 people died and 25,000 homes were submerged in areas around the city of Lagos and villages in Imo State after rivers overflowed their banks.

November

There were no significant natural disaster events in Africa during the month of November.

Exhibit 81: Africa December Events



(USD)

12/3 Flooding Tanzania 9+ 6,776+ Unknown

12/31 Severe Weather South Africa 5+ Hundreds+ 9.71+ million

Torrential rainfall and high winds affected parts of the Kilimanjaro, Arusha and Mbeya regions of Tanzania on the 3rd, spawning flash floods and landslides. At least nine people were killed as the storm damaged or destroyed more than 6,776 homes. Floodwaters also submerged large swaths of cropland and drowned livestock.

A powerful thunderstorm ripped through the KwaZulu-Natal midlands areas of uMsinga and uMvoti in South Africa on the 31st, killing at least five people and leaving more than 22 others injured. According to local government officials, the storm caused significant damage to hundreds of homes, businesses, schools and other structures in addition to wide swaths of the transportation and electrical infrastructures. Total economic losses were listed at ZAR78 million (USD9.71 million).

53

Impact Forecasting

A severe drought gripped parts of China from January through the end of June, particularly the provinces of Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Shanxi and Jiangsu. More than 6.96 million hectares (17.2 million acres) of land were damaged after many areas saw less than 20 percent of its normal rainfall. Total economic losses across all six affected provinces were listed at CNY17 billion (USD2.67 billion).

The Northeast Monsoon combined with additional moisture to spawn consecutive weeks of heavy rain across 25 separate provinces in Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao in the Philippines. At least 75 people died following floods and landslides that occurred between December 29, 2010 and January 28, 2011. According to the National Disaster Coordinating Council, at least 5,729 homes were damaged or destroyed and more than two million people were affected. Total economic losses were listed at PHP2.06 billion (USD46.6 million) after damage to agricultural crops, infrastructure and personal property occurred.

Wintry weather affected much of southern and eastern China between the 1st and the 24th. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the provinces of Yunnan, Hunan, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Chongqing and Guangxi were most affected by the heavy snow and freezing rain. At least two people died in the event, more than 150,000 homes were destroyed and 142,400 hectares (352,000 acres) of crops were affected. Economic losses were listed at CNY7.4 billion (USD1.17 billion).

Consecutive weeks of heavy rains brought extensive flooding to much of Sri Lanka between the 2nd and the 15th. At least 43 people died and 51 more were injured in floods that inundated Northern, Eastern, Central and North Central provinces in the country. According to the National Disaster Management Center, at least 50,000 homes, businesses and other structures were damaged along with 244,000 hectares (603,000 acres) of rice fields, and large swaths of the transportation and electrical infrastructures. More than 240,000 livestock were also killed during the event. Total economic losses were listed by government officials at LKR55.4 billion (USD500 million).

A strong magnitude-7.2 earthquake struck southwest Pakistan on the 19th, causing minor damage near the epicenter. The main tremor occurred at 1:23 AM local time (20:23 UTC on the 18th) approximately 45 kilometers (30 miles) west of Dalbandin, Pakistan. According to government officials, more than 200 mud homes were destroyed along with offices of Chagai District managers in the Dalbandin area. Additional minor damage was reported throughout the province. No injuries or fatalities occurred.

Flooding rains between the 29th and the 31st led to inundation across parts of Malaysia. At least five people died in the states of Johor, southern Malacca, central Negri Sembilan, eastern Pahang and Sabah state on Borneo Island. Widespread damage was reported throughout the affected areas, particularly to the agricultural and electrical infrastructures. Transportation was also hampered, including the suspension of the Malaysian Railway that connects to neighboring Singapore. Total economic losses were estimated at MYR158 million (USD50 million).

Asia

• Magnitude-9.0 earthquake and subsequent tsunami cause extensive damage and fatalities in Japan

• Historic flooding in Thailand kills more than 790 people; damage costs in the tens of billions (USD)

• Flooding spawns widespread damage and loss of life in China, Pakistan and Southeast Asia

Exhibit 82: Asia January Events



(USD)

1/1-6/30 Drought China 0 Unknown 2.67+ billion

1/1-1/28 Flooding Philippines 75+ 5,729+ 46.6+ million

1/1-1/24 Winter Weather China 2+ 150,000+ 1.17+ billion

1/2-1/15 Flooding Sri Lanka 43+ 50,000+ 500+ million

1/19 Earthquake Pakistan 0 200+ Unknown

1/29-1/31 Flooding Malaysia 5+ 25,000+ 50+ million

54


The combination of severe weather and flooding rains led to the deaths of at least 22 people across parts of the Philippines between January 31st and February 7th. Local officials reported that flash floods, river flooding, landslides, and tornadoes all caused damage across the affected areas. The National Disaster Coordinating Council indicated that 2,598 homes were damaged or destroyed with widespread impacts to agriculture and the transportation infrastructure. Total economic losses were estimated at PHP539 million (USD12.3 million).

Fresh rounds of torrential rains between the 1st and the 10th led to renewed flooding across north, north central and eastern sections of Sri Lanka. At least 18 people were killed and more than 26,761 homes were damaged or destroyed across 18 separate districts after persistent monsoonal rains continued to fall over the country. Total economic losses were listed at LKR50 billion (USD450 million).

A magnitude-4.8 earthquake struck southwest China’s Yunnan Province on the 1st, affecting over 80,000 people. The tremor struck at 3:11 PM Tuesday afternoon (7:11 UTC) with an epicenter 245 kilometers (150 miles) west-southwest of the city of Dali at a depth of 39.6 kilometers (24.6 miles). According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the earthquake had damaged or destroyed at least 678 homes.

Two weeks of heavy snowfall and flash floods affected multiple sections of Afghanistan between the 3rd and the 17th. According to the Afghanistan National Disasters Management Authority, at least 20 people died and 53 more were injured in the provinces of Parwan, Heart, Wardak and Daykundi due to flooding rains. More than 3,000 homes were damaged during the event. The additional five fatalities occurred in the northeastern province of Badakhshan.

Eastern sections of South Korea sustained the heaviest snowfall totals in 100 years between the 11th and the 13th. The provinces of Gangwon, North Gyeongsang and South Gyeongsang were most affected by the event. According to the Gangwon Regional Meteorological Administration, an all-time South Korean one-day record of 77.7 centimeters (30.6 inches) was recorded in Gangneung. Widespread damage was reported, with hundreds of homes, businesses, livestock sheds and greenhouses sustaining roof collapses. The snow also led to travel chaos, with several primary highways being closed and flights also being cancelled. The Disaster and Safety Management Office reported that total economic losses were KRW77.7 billion (USD69.9 million).

Exhibit 83: Asia February Events



(USD)


2/1-2/10 Flooding Sri Lanka 18+ 27,497+ 450+ million

2/1 Earthquake China 0 678+ Unknown

2/3-2/17 Winter Weather Afghanistan 25+ 3,000+ Unknown

2/11-2/13 Winter Weather South Korea 0 1,000+ 70+ million

55

Impact Forecasting

A moderate earthquake rattled parts of southwest China near the border with Myanmar on the 10th. The magnitude-5.4 tremor occurred at 11:28 AM local time (4:58 UTC) with an epicenter in Yingjiang County, Yunnan Province, China. At least 26 people were killed and 313 others were injured. According to officials from China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs, the earthquake damaged or destroyed at least 68,000 homes in Yingjiang County. Supermarkets, apartments and hotels also collapsed in areas closest to the epicenter. The Chinese government allocated CNY1.84 billion (USD290 million) for relief and recovery costs.

A massive mega-earthquake and tsunami struck the northeastern coast of Japan on the 11th, killing at least 15,844 people, injuring 5,890, leaving 3,500 others missing and causing damage to at least 1.1 million homes and other structures. The main magnitude-9.0 earthquake struck at 2:46 PM local time (5:46 UTC) with an epicenter 130 kilometers (80 miles) east of Sendai, Japan and 373 kilometers (231 miles) northeast of Tokyo at a depth of 24.4 kilometers (15.2 miles). Ground shaking from the temblor reportedly lasted for two full minutes. Following the main tremor, more than 1,000 aftershocks rattled the region with at least 70 shocks registering above magnitude-6.0. The tremor spawned a significant tsunami (in excess of 15 meters (49.2 feet)) that swept across the coastlines of Miyagi, Iwate and Fukushima prefectures. Many towns were completely washed away. In the days that followed the earthquake and tsunami, the attention shifted to several nuclear reactor failures at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant facility. The Japanese government listed total economic losses to at JPY16.3 trillion (USD210 billion); while total insured losses were anticipated to exceed JPY2.7 trillion (USD35 billion).

Persistent heavy rains fell between the 17th and the 31st in Papua, Indonesia, which spawned floods that left at least 13 people dead. More than 5,000 homes were destroyed as floodwaters rose as high as 2 meters (6.6 feet) in several districts after the Aga River overflowed its banks. Thousands of hectares (acres) of crops sustained inundation. An unspecified number of livestock also perished during the event.

Torrential monsoonal rains inundated southern sections of Thailand between late March and early April, leaving at least 61 people dead. Ten provinces were listed as disaster zones after more than a year’s worth of rain fell during a six-day span. At least 602,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, 6,600 main roads and bridges were washed away or damaged, 1,367 schools and hospitals were damaged, 269,000 hectares (664,000 acres) of farmland were submerged, power poles snapped and thousands of residents and tourists were left stranded. Transportation via airports and railways were also suspended due to flooding. Thailand’s Economic and Business Forecasting Center anticipated economic damages at THB26.5 billion (USD880 million).

A strong, magnitude-6.8 earthquake rattled northeast Myanmar on the 24th, causing widespread damage and leaving at least 75 people dead. According to the USGS, the main tremor struck at 8:25 PM local time (13:55 UTC) with an epicenter located 89 kilometers (55 miles) north of Chiang Rai, Thailand. Myanmar’s official state media reported that at least 700 homes, 14 Buddhist monasteries and nine government buildings were destroyed. A small hospital and a main bridge were also severely damaged. In Thailand, one woman was killed after a wall collapsed; though damage elsewhere was not extensive. Total damages were listed at MMK23.5 million (USD3.6 million).

Exhibit 84: Asia March Events



(USD)

3/10 Earthquake China 26+ 68,000+ 290+ million

3/11 Earthquake Japan 15,844+ 1.1+ million 210+ billion

3/17-3/31 Flooding Indonesia 13+ 5,000+ Unknown

3/21-4/8 Flooding Thailand 61+ 609,679+ 880+ million

3/24 Earthquake Myanmar, Thailand 75+ 3,194+ 3.6+ million

56


A deadly tornado tore through northern towns in Bangladesh on the 4th, killing at least 17 people and injuring more than 150 others. The districts of Jamalpur, Thakurgaon, Sherpur, Mymensingh, Gaibandha, Joypurhat and Bogra were the most affected areas where hundreds of homes were destroyed, along with wide swaths of crop and trees.

Days of heavy rain between the 9th and the 15th combined with melting snow to spawn widespread flooding across western Kazakhstan. At least two people died and more than 9,000 homes and commercial buildings were damaged. According to government officials, at least 300 kilometers (186 miles) of roads and thousands of hectares (acres) of crops were also destroyed along with additional damage to dams, bridges, power lines, telephone lines and gas pipelines. Total economic damages were listed at KZT20 billion (USD135.2 million).

A magnitude-5.1 temblor struck China’s Sichuan Province at 5:02 PM local time (9:02 UTC) on the 11th with an epicenter in Luhuo County. More than 5,900 homes were severely damaged across 18 separate townships in the county. Total economic losses were listed at CNY40 million (USD6.1 million).

At least 10 people were killed and seven others were injured on the 17th in Indonesia’s East Java province after heavy rains prompted a large landslide. An 80-meter (260-foot) cliff in Malang district collapsed, causing the deaths.

A series of severe thunderstorms spawned large hail throughout southwestern China on the 17th and 18th, killing at least 21 people and injuring 155 others. The provinces of Guangdong, Guizhou and Hainan were primarily affected, with the Ministry of Civil Affairs noting that more than 3,200 homes and thousands of hectares (acres) of farmland were damaged by the hailstones. Total economic losses were listed at CNY171 million (USD26.2 million).

In the Philippines, at least 14 people were killed after a landslide struck a small mining area in Compostela Province on the 22nd. Dozens of homes were also destroyed in the event.

Sandstorms swept across ten Chinese provinces between the 28th and the 30th, damaging or destroying at least 21,000 homes. Local government officials reported that the sandstorms also damaged thousands of hectares (acres) of crops.

Exhibit 85: Asia April Events



(USD)

4/4 Severe Weather Bangladesh 17+ 500+ Unknown

4/9-4/15 Flooding Kazakhstan 2+ 9,000+ 135.2+ million

4/11 Earthquake China 0 5,900+ 6.1+ million

4/17 Flooding Indonesia 10+ Dozens+ Unknown

4/17-4/18 Severe Weather China 0 3,200+ 26.2+ million

4/22 Flooding Philippines 14+ 50+ Unknown

4/28-4/30 Sandstorm China 0 21,000+ Unknown

57

Impact Forecasting

Strong thunderstorms affected China’s Guizhou and Guangdong provinces between April 30th and May 2nd. The combination of torrential rains and golf ball-sized hail damaged or destroyed thousands of homes and also more than 10,500 hectares (26,000 acres) of farmland. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, total economic losses were listed at CNY134 million (USD20.5 million).

Flooding and landslides were recorded in southern sections of China between the 7th and the 9th, killing at least 19 people. Heavy rains led to a series of large landslides in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, causing the fatalities. In neighboring Guangdong Province, heavy rains damaged nearly 1,000 homes, bridges and roadways. Thousands of hectares (acres) of cropland were also submerged.

Tropical Storm Aere made separate landfalls in parts of the Philippines on the 8th and 9th, bringing torrential rains and flooding. At least 35 people were killed. Aere made its first landfall over northern Catanduanes before making a second, and final, landfall over northern Casiguran, Luzon Island. According to the Philippines’ National Disaster Coordinating Council,

the cyclone caused widespread flooding and landslides that submerged roads and bridges. More than 9,420 homes were damaged or destroyed and the agricultural infrastructure saw nearly 10,000 hectares (24,700 acres) of crops damaged. Total economic losses were listed at PHP1.37 billion (USD31.6 million).

Super Typhoon Songda became the first Category 5 cyclone of 2011 prior to weakening and skirting parts of the Philippines and Japan between the 26th and 29th. In the Philippines, Songda left at least four people dead, more than 131 homes damaged or destroyed and caused widespread damage to agriculture and other infrastructure. As the cyclone impacted Japan, it brought torrential rains that spawned flooding and landslides to several southern prefectures. At least 13 people were killed, hundreds of homes, businesses and schools were damaged and more than 219 roads and bridges were swept away across the country. Economic losses in the Philippines were listed at PHP130 million (USD3 million).

Exhibit 86: Asia May Events



(USD)

4/30-5/2 Severe Weather China 0 5,000+ 20.5+ million

5/7-5/9 Flooding China 19+ 1,000+ Millions+

5/8-5/9 TS Aere Philippines 35+ 9,420+ 31.6+ million

5/15-7/15 Flooding Nepal 75+ 500+ Millions+

5/26-5/29 STY Songda Philippines, Japan 17+ 1,000+ 3+ million

58


Persistent rounds of heavy rains fell between the 1st and 24th across at least 13 central and southern provinces in China, including the parched Yangtze River Basin. At least 239 people died. Nationwide, at least 37 million people were directly impacted by the floods, with more than 500,000 homes damaged or destroyed and hundreds of roads, bridges and railways submerged. The Ministry of Civil Affairs noted that nearly one million hectares (2.47 million acres) of farmland were affected as well. Direct economic losses were listed at CNY42.3 billion (USD6.65 billion).

Torrential monsoonal rains battered nine separate provinces in the Philippines between the 1st and the 19th, leaving at least 10 people dead. The province of Maguindanao was most affected, where floodwaters from the swollen Rio Grande de Mindanao River swamped the region. More than 75 percent of the town of Cotabato was underwater. Widespread damage occurred to personal and commercial property and the electrical and agricultural infrastructures. Economic losses were listed at PHP411 million (USD9.4 million).

At least 32 people died in China (23) and the Philippines (9) after torrential rains from Tropical Storm Sarika brought floods and landslides the 4th and the 11th. South China’s Guangdong Province was particularly affected, where thousands of homes were damaged in addition to wide swaths of crops. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, economic damages were CNY1.6 billion (USD248 million).

Flash floods occurred in western and central sections of Singapore on the 5th after a powerful storm brought 124 millimeters (4.88 inches) of rain in just a few hours’ time. Damage was widespread in some areas, with ankle-deep floodwater heights in some locations. Additional floods came in Bukit Timah after a canal burst its banks.

Torrential rains on the 11th and 12th in Tajikistan caused widespread flooding and mudslides throughout the northern province of Sughd. Separate large mudslides impacted the villages of Bobodarhon and Saro, where at least 213 homes were damaged or destroyed. The floods also damaged 11 kilometers (seven miles) of roads, thousands of hectares (acres) of crops, irrigation channels and electricity supply lines.

Tropical Storm Haima developed and brought heavy rains and gusty winds to parts of the northern Philippines, southern China and central and northern Vietnam between the 19th and the 24th. In the Philippines, at least two people died after floods and landslides affected Luzon. Damage was generally listed as minimal throughout the country. In China, Haima damaged hundreds of homes, farmland and caused total economic losses of CNY9.4 million (USD1.45 million). As the system reached Vietnam, torrential rains spawned flooding that left at least 22 people dead and 81 more injured. More than 2,600 homes were destroyed. Total damages were listed at VND1 trillion (USD49 million).

Exhibit 87: Asia June Events



(USD)

6/1-6/24 Flooding China 239+ 500,000+ 6.65+ billion


6/4-6/11 TS Sarika Philippines, China 32+ 15,000+ 248+ million

6/5 Flooding Singapore 0 Dozens+ Unknown

6/11-6/12 Flooding Tajikistan 0 500+ Unknown

6/19-6/24 TS Haima China, Philippines, Vietnam 23+ 5,000+ 50+ million


6/25-6/30 TS Meari Philippines, China, Korea 17+ 5,000+ 44+ million

6/27-6/28 Flooding India 31+ 25,750+ Unknown

6/28 Flooding Philippines 30+ 500+ Unknown

59

Impact Forecasting

A moderate earthquake rattled southwest China’s Yunnan Province on the 20th. According to the United States Geological Survey, the magnitude-5.3 tremor struck at 6:16 PM local time (10:16 UTC) with an epicenter 163 kilometers (101 miles) west-southwest of Dali, China at a depth of 35.2 kilometers (21.9 miles). The Ministry of Civil Affairs reported that the earthquake caused the majority of the damage in Tengchong County, where at least 12,094 homes were damaged or destroyed. Total economic losses were listed at CNY60 million (USD9.2 million).

Tropical Storm Meari traversed through the Philippine Sea and the East China Sea in the Western Pacific Ocean before making its sole landfall in Shinujiu, North Korea on the 26th. The first areas to feel impacts from Meari came in the Philippines, where at least eight people were killed following torrential rains and flooding. The storm damaged or destroyed at least 1,380 homes and caused PHP564 million (USD13.1 million) in damages to agriculture and infrastructure. In eastern China, the provinces of Liaoning, Zhejiang and Shandong reported that at least 400 homes were destroyed and more than 33,000 hectares (81,500 acres) of farmland was submerged. Total economic losses were listed at CNY200 million (USD30.9 million). As a weakened Meari made landfall in Korea, the system damaged numerous bridges, roads and farmland. At least nine people were killed in South Korea.

Monsoonal rains in India on the 27th and 28th led to the deaths of at least 31 people. The northern and eastern states of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and West Bengal were particularly affected by the heavy rainfall. Local officials reported that at least 25,750 homes were washed away.

Torrential monsoonal rains spawned both river and flash flooding across Davao City in the Philippines on the 28th. At least 30 people were killed throughout six villages after the Pangi River overflowed its banks and caused water to reach upwards of 3 meters (10 feet) in some locations of the city. At least 409 homes were damaged or destroyed in addition to parts of the transportation infrastructure.

60


A severe drought persisted in southwest China throughout the month of July after starting in early June. Government officials reported that the drought had damaged 550,000 hectares (1.35 million acres) of crops and left 2.2 million residents without plentiful drinking water. Total economic losses were listed at CNY6 billion (USD923 million).

In Nepal, persistent rainfall led to widespread flooding and landslides across most sections of the country. According to the National Emergency Operation Center, at least 75 people died and more than 80 others were injured in the flooding. More than 500 homes were destroyed.

Fresh rounds of torrential rainfall between the 1st and the 8th brought renewed flooding to 20 separate Chinese provincial regions. At least 49 people were killed and many others were injured as the heavy rains prompted flooding and landslides. Damage was widespread as more than 100,000 homes were damaged or destroyed in addition to hundreds of schools and other structures. The transportation infrastructure was seriously impacted as several state and national highways and bridges were washed away. Wide swaths of cropland were submerged as well. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, direct economic losses were listed at CNY6.39 billion (USD989 million).

Three consecutive days of heavy monsoonal rains across South Korea between the 9th and the 11th left at least nine people dead and several others injured. The country’s National Emergency Management Agency reported that the provinces of South Gyeongsang, Chungcheong and Jeolla saw flash flooding. In Seoul, isolated reports of flooding were prevalent. Damage was reported to hundreds of homes in addition to bridges and roads being destroyed. The floods also submerged thousands of hectares (acres) of farmland and forced the suspension of some train services.

Heavy rainfall between the 11th and the 14th led to flooding and landslides across eight separate provinces in China. At least six people were killed and thousands of homes were damaged or destroyed by the inclement weather. Farmland was also submerged. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, direct economic losses were listed at CNY350 million (USD54.1 million).

Typhoon Ma-on made a brief landfall on Japan’s Shikoku Island on the 19th while spreading heavy rains and gusty winds throughout much of the country. At least five people were killed and dozens more were injured. Heavy rains and gusty winds from the cyclone forced airlines and express trains to cancel hundreds of flights and routes. The storm damaged a centuries-old castle in Kyoto, and submerged agricultural areas. Total economic losses were estimated at JPY3.9 billion (USD50 million).

Exhibit 88: Asia July Events



(USD)

6/1-8/12 Drought China 0 Unknown 923+ million

7/1-7/8 Flooding China 49+ 100,000+ 989+ million

7/9-7/11 Flooding South Korea 9+ 500+ Millions+

7/11-7/14 Flooding China 6+ 5,000+ 54.1+ million

7/18-7/20 TY Ma-on Japan 5+ Hundreds+ 50+ million

7/19 Earthquake Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan 14+ 1,500+ 9.3+ million

7/25-7/27 Flooding China 54+ 150,000+ 632+ million

7/26-7/29 Flooding South Korea, North Korea 100+ 20,000+ 200+ million

7/27-7/30 TY Nock-ten Philippines, China, Vietnam 94+ 340,000+ 126+ million

7/27-7/31 Flooding Japan 3+ 3,000+ Millions+

7/28-8/2 Flooding China 13+ 25,000+ 52.7+ million

7/31 Severe Weather Russia 1+ 250+ 3+ million

61

Impact Forecasting

A magnitude-6.1 earthquake struck the southern portions of Kyrgyzstan on the 19th. The tremor struck with an epicenter 404 kilometers (251 miles) southwest of Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan at a depth of 16 kilometers (9.9 miles). At least 14 deaths were reported near the epicenter, which was near the intersection of the borders of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Government statistics indicated that more than 1,500 homes and buildings were damaged or destroyed throughout the region. Total economic losses were KSG414 million (USD9.3 million).

Torrential rains and strong thunderstorms pelted 267 counties in 18 separate provincial regions in China between the 25th and the 27th. At least 54 people were killed and dozens more were injured as flooding, landslides, damaging winds and hail all contributed to the casualties. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, at least 150,000 homes were damaged or destroyed in addition to tens of thousands of hectares (acres) of crops being submerged. The transportation infrastructure was also affected during the event. Direct economic losses were listed at CNY4.01 billion (USD632 million).

At least 62 people were killed and dozens more were injured in central sections of South Korea after excessive rains between the 26th and 29th prompted widespread flooding and landslides. According to the National Emergency Management Agency, at least 11,000 homes were inundated in addition to thousands of additional buildings, schools and vehicles. Severe damage was also evident to main roads, subway stations, rail lines and underground walkways. Total economic losses were estimated well into the hundreds of millions of dollars (USD). South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service noted that at least 5,839 auto claims had been filed, with payouts exceeding KRW40.3 billion (USD38.3 million).

Typhoon Nock-ten developed and made landfall in the Philippines, China and Vietnam between the 27th and the 30th, bringing torrential rains and gusty winds. At least 94 people were killed, with most of the casualties coming in the Philippines. Nock-ten’s arrival in the Philippines in Aurora Province on the 27th prompted flash floods and landslides. More than 16,974 homes were damaged or destroyed in the country, with economic losses listed at PHP2.77 billion (USD65.3 million). In southern China’s Hainan province, the storm killed at least two people as heavy rains spawned isolated reports of flooding. Direct economic losses were listed at CNY377 million (USD58 million). In Vietnam, a weakened Nock-ten made its third and final landfall while coming ashore in Thanh Hoa and Nghe An provinces and shifting into Laos and Thailand (USD3 million in damages). At least 23 people (20 in Thailand alone) were killed and nearly 315,000 homes were damaged in Thailand.

Four consecutive days of torrential rainfall in Japan prompted widespread flooding across central Honshu Island between the 27th and the 31st, leaving at least three people dead. The prefectures of Niigata and Fukushima were particularly affected, where the Japanese Meteorological Agency recorded upwards of 1,186 millimeters (47 inches) of rainfall. More than 3,000 homes were damaged.

Persistent rains fell across China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Shaanxi province between the 28th and August 2nd, prompting flooding that killed at least 13 people. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, more than 25,000 homes were damaged or destroyed during the event in addition to nearly 75,000 hectares (185,000 acres) of crops being submerged. Combined direct economic losses were listed at CNY1.6 billion (USD52.7 million).

A rare tornado touched down in Russia’s Far East region on the 31st, killing at least one person and injuring 30 more. The twister, which struck the city of Blagoveshchensk, damaged or destroyed at least 250 homes and vehicles. Total economic losses were listed at RUB80 million (USD3 million).

62


Exhibit 89: Asia August Events



(USD)

8/8-8/10 TY Muifa China, Philippines, Korea 22+ 20,000+ 658+ million

8/9 Earthquake China 0 22,800+ Millions+

8/12-10/15 Flooding Pakistan 520+ 1.6 million+ 2+ billion

8/13-8/17 Flooding China 10+ Thousands+ 323+ million

8/20-8/29 Flooding India 47+ Thousands+ 275+ million

8/22 Flooding China 0 300+ 9.22+ million

8/27-8/31 TY Nanmadol Philippines, Taiwan, China 37+ 10,000+ 250+ million

Typhoon Muifa made landfall near the China/North Korea border on the 8th. Prior to landfall in the Philippines, the cyclone spawned flash floods and landslides throughout several regions on Luzon Island. At least eight people were killed. In Japan’s Okinawa prefecture, at least 37 people were injured in flash floods. As the storm brushed eastern China, damage was widespread to more than 14,300 homes and swaths of agricultural land. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, direct economic losses were listed at CNY4.24 billion (USD658 million). The cyclone also impacted North and South Korea, where a combined 14 people were killed. More than 1,000 homes were damaged or destroyed in addition to thousands of hectares (acres) of crops.

A magnitude-5.0 struck at 7:50 PM local time (11:50 UTC) on the 9th with an epicenter 168 kilometers (104 miles) west-southwest of Dali, China in Yunnan Province, China. According to the China Earthquake Networks Center, at least six people were injured after more than 22,800 homes and other infrastructure facilities were damaged throughout the hardest hit areas in Tengchong County.

Torrential monsoonal rains struck southern sections of Pakistan from August 12th through the middle of October, leaving at least 520 people dead and 756 others injured. According to the National Disaster Management Authority, the provinces of Sindh, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were worst affected as more than 1.6 million homes were damaged or destroyed and at least 1.8 million hectares (4.5 million acres) of rice, sugarcane and cotton crops were submerged. Total economic losses were listed at PKR174 billion (USD2 billion).

A wave of heavy rains between the 13th and the 17th led to the deaths of at least 10 people in China. The Ministry of Civil Affairs reported that flooding and landslides were recorded in 138 counties across 16 provinces during the period, with Hubei,

Gansu and Qinghai provinces sustaining the worst effects. Direct economic losses were listed at CNY2.07 billion (USD323 million).

Heavy rains in India’s West Bengal region spawned flooding that killed at least 47 people across 81 municipalities between the 20th and the 29th. State government officials noted that all of the fatalities occurred along the Damodar, Kangsabati and Mayurakshi rivers, which burst their banks and also led to intentional water releases to prevent even more catastrophic flooding. Total economic losses were listed at INR12.7 billion (USD275 million).

Excessive rainfall in China’s Hubei Province triggered widespread flooding and landslides on the 22nd. At least 42,000 people were directly impacted as the floods destroyed 294 homes and more than 15.5 kilometers (9.63 miles) of roads. Direct economic losses were listed at CNY59 million (USD9.22 million).

Typhoon Nanmadol churned through the Northwest Pacific Basin and made three separate landfalls in the Philippines, Taiwan and China between the 27th and the 31st. In the Philippines, Nanmadol’s torrential rains and high winds led to widespread damage across 17 separate provinces on Luzon. At least 35 people were killed. According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, the system affected nearly 3,000 homes and caused extensive damage to the agricultural and transportation infrastructures. Economic losses were estimated at PHP1.46 billion (USD34.4 million). In Taiwan, the system’s heavy rains triggered knee-high flooding in many locations as the most significant impacts came after the floods inundated vast areas of cropland and damaged more than 2,000 homes. A weakened Nanmadol made its final landfall in southeast China, where it damaged or destroyed thousands of homes in Fujian and Zhejiang provinces. Direct economic losses were at least CNY440 million (USD68.9 million).

63

Impact Forecasting

Consecutive weeks of heavy rain (beginning on September 1st) affected nine separate Chinese provincial regions with flash floods, river flooding and landslides during the month. At least 101 people were killed. According to China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs, hundreds of thousands of homes were damaged or destroyed in addition to nearly 1 million hectares (2.47 million acres) of crops submerged. Total economic losses were CNY27.21 billion (USD4.25 billion).

Tropical Storm Talas made landfall in southern Japan on the 2nd, leaving at least 68 people dead and dozens more missing. The system brought record rains to multiple prefectures, which spawned flooding and landslides. According to government officials, widespread damage was prevalent in southern sections of the country, particularly Kii Peninsula on Honshu Island. Japan’s Fire and Disaster Management Agency reported that 25,117 structures were damaged by wind or inundated by flash floods and rivers overflowing their banks. Thousands more vehicles were also impacted. Total economic losses were estimated at JPY38.5 billion (USD500 million), with the General Insurance Association of Japan recording at least JPY33.1 (USD430.9 million) in insured losses.

Monsoonal rains severely impacted India’s eastern state of Orissa between the 5th and the 15th. The rains caused several rivers (including the Mahanadi) to burst their banks, leading to at least 42 people being killed. State officials reported that more than 25,000 homes had been damaged, in addition to a significant amount of crop acreage. Additional flood damage was reported in the northern states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Total economic losses were listed at INR21 billion (USD432 million).

A magnitude-6.6 earthquake rattled Indonesia’s Aceh province on the 6th, leaving at least 10 people dead. The tremor, which struck 100 kilometers (62 miles) southwest of Medan, Indonesia at 12:55 AM local time (17:55 UTC Monday), caused widespread structural damage. Indonesia’s Regional Disaster Mitigation Agency reported that economic losses would reach IDR50 billion (USD5.85 million).

A strong earthquake struck northeastern India on the 18th, leading to the deaths of at least 116 people. At least 500 others were injured as more than 140,000 homes and structures were damaged or destroyed. The magnitude-6.9 earthquake occurred at 6:10 PM local time (12:40 UTC) with an epicenter 68 kilometers (42 miles) northwest of Gangtok, India at a depth of 19.7 kilometers (12.2 miles). The Indian state of Sikkim sustained the most substantial impacts, with the most extensive damage coming in a stretch between Gangtok and Chung Thang. In Nepal, government officials reported at least 11 fatalities and 89 injuries in addition to major infrastructure damage occurring. In China’s Tibet Autonomous Region, at least seven people died and 136 others were injured in 17 counties after at least 17,500 homes were damaged or destroyed. In Bhutan, at least one fatality was recorded after the temblor left structural damage. Total economic costs (including damage and reconstruction) in India were listed at INR100 billion (USD1.89 billion).

Exhibit 90: Asia September Events



(USD)

9/1-9/22 Flooding China 101+ 250,000+ 4.25+ billion

9/2-9/4 TS Talas Japan 68+ 25,117+ 500+ million

9/5-9/15 Flooding India 42+ 25,000+ 432+ million

9/6 Earthquake Indonesia 10+ 1,000+ 5.85+ million

9/18 Earthquake India, Bhutan, Tibet 116+ 140,000+ 1.89+ billion

9/21-9/22 TY Roke Japan 13+ 5,000+ 1.25+ billion

9/23-9/28 Flooding India 51+ 50,000+ 568+ million

9/23-9/25 Flooding Turkey 1+ Hundreds+ Unknown

9/27-9/30 TY Nesat Philippines, China, Vietnam 88+ 65,000+ 1.57+ billion

64


Typhoon Roke made landfall in southern portions of Japan on the 21st, killing at least 13 people and injuring 308 others. The storm brought torrential rains and gusty winds, leading to downed trees, infrastructure damage and rivers overflowing their banks and inundating nearby structures in 12 prefectures. Official data noted that 5,000 properties suffered damage from flood inundation and wind damage. Flights and bullet train service was disrupted, in addition to several global companies being forced to temporarily suspend plant production. The General Insurance Association of Japan noted JPY88.5 billion (USD1.15 billion) in insured losses. Economic losses were slightly higher.

Monsoonal rains brought renewed flooding to parts of the Indian states of Orissa, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh between the 23rd and the 28th. In Orissa, at least 42 people died in floods that occurred after several rivers overflowed their banks and submerged at least 3,569 villages. More than 46,936 homes were destroyed by the floods in addition to 220,000 hectares (544,000 acres) of cropland. At least 13 additional fatalities were recorded in Bihar. Total economic losses in the region were listed at a combined INR28 billion (USD568 million).

Heavy rains in Turkey between the 23rd and the 25th led to the death of at least one person. The rains, which were prevalent in the northern province of Rize (located along the Black Sea), prompted flash flooding that damaged hundreds of homes and businesses.

Typhoon Nesat made separate landfalls in the Philippines, China and Vietnam between the 27th and the 30th, leaving dozens of people dead. In the Philippines, effects were widespread as government officials noted at least 83 fatalities, 91 injuries and more than 53,343 homes damaged or destroyed. Damage was also prevalent throughout Manila, where the city’s financial district was impacted. Economic losses were listed at PHP15 billion (USD346 million). In China, the storm killed four people, damaged 12,000 homes and submerged crops on Hainan Island and other southern provinces. Total economic losses were listed at CNY7.9 billion (USD1.24 billion). In Vietnam, one person was killed and more than 1,000 homes and wide swaths of crops were destroyed. Total losses were listed at VND50 billion (USD2.4 million).

65

Impact Forecasting

Laos sustained several months of extensive flooding as high water levels in the Mekong River Delta occurred in response to an active monsoon season and the arrival of several tropical cyclones. The floods, which began in June, left at least 34 people dead and upwards of 140,000 homes destroyed. More than 64,400 hectares (160,000 acres) of rice paddy fields were submerged. Total economic losses were estimated at LAK1.4 trillion (USD174 million).

The worst flooding in decades affected Thailand between late July and the end of November, as the death toll reached at least 790. In total, more than 13.4 million people were affected in at least 65 of Thailand’s 77 provinces. Substantial damage was reported to personal and commercial property, with approximately four million homes and thousands of additional businesses sustaining various levels of flood inundation. The hardest-hit industries were to electrical appliances and equipment, medical equipment, automobiles and food and beverage manufacturers. The agricultural infrastructure was also impacted with more than 1.92 million hectares (4.74 million acres) of land having been damaged. According to the World Bank, total economic losses were THB1.41 trillion (USD45 billion) – including THB661 billion (USD21.11 billion) in property damages and THB689 billion (USD22 billion) in lost productivity. The Office of Insurance Commission (OIC) released an insured loss projection of THB337 billion (USD10.78 billion).

The Cambodian government reported multiple months of severe flooding as flash floods and inundation along the Mekong River leading to the deaths of at least 250 people. More than 1.2

million people were impacted in 19 separate cities and provinces across the country. At least 250,000 homes, schools and religious sanctuaries were damaged or destroyed, in addition to more than 3,000 kilometers (1,864 miles) of roads. The agricultural infrastructure saw at least 400,000 hectares (988,000 acres) of rice paddy fields submerged as well. Total economic losses were estimated at KHR660 billion (USD161 million).

In Vietnam, several months of severe flooding in the Mekong River Delta caused the deaths of at least 100 people. The Central Committee for Storm and Flood Control reported that more than 175,000 homes were destroyed and 99,000 hectares (245,000 acres) of rice and other crops were submerged. At least 1,455 kilometers (904 miles) of dykes and 1,300 kilometers (808 miles) of roads were damaged as well. Total economic losses were estimated at VND2.85 trillion (USD135 million).

Super Typhoon Nalgae made multiple landfalls in the Philippines, China and Vietnam between September 30th and October 6th, leading to at least 13 fatalities. In the Philippines, the typhoon brought torrential rainfall and extremely gusty winds throughout Luzon Island. According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, Nalgae damaged or destroyed at least 18,241 homes in addition to vast agricultural areas. Economic losses were listed at PHP115 million (USD2.6 million). In China, the Ministry of Civil Affairs noted that heavy rains led to renewed flooding in multiple southern provinces. The final landfall in Vietnam saw a weakened Nalgae losing most of its wind speeds, though heavy rains brought fresh flooding to central and southern sections of the country.

Exhibit 91: Asia October Events



(USD)

6/29-10/31 Flooding Laos 34+ 140,000+ 174+ million

7/25-11/30 Flooding Thailand 790+ 4+ million 45+ billion

9/10-10/31 Flooding Cambodia 250+ 250,000+ 521+ million

9/10-11/15 Flooding Vietnam 100+ 175,000+ 135+ million

9/30-10/6 STY Nalgae Philippines, China, Vietnam 13+ 20,000+ Millions+

10/8-10/11 Flooding Turkey 7+ 500+ Unknown

10/11-10/12 TS Banyan Philippines 10+ Hundreds+ Unknown

10/13 Earthquake Indonesia 0 Hundreds+ Unknown

10/19-10/21 TS 02B Myanmar 215+ 8,000+ 1.7+ million

66


A magnitude-5.4 earthquake struck the northwestern province of Xinjiang in China at 8:21 AM local time (00:21 UTC) on the 1st, with an epicenter 27.9 kilometers (17.3 miles) east-southeast of the city of Yining. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the tremor damaged or destroyed at least 63,600 homes and caused CNY358 million (USD56.4 million) in economic losses. No fatalities were recorded.

Five consecutive days of heavy rains between the 23rd and the 28th led to three fatalities in central Vietnam. According to the Flood and Storm Control Center, flooding affected multiple provinces (including Quang Ngai and Binh Dinh) that destroyed more than 9,500 homes. The transportation infrastructure was also impacted.

Heavy rains and high winds impacted southern sections of Sri Lanka on the 26th and 27th, killing at least 22 people and injuring 41 others. The storm system particularly affected the coastal areas of Galle and Matara, where more than 7,137 homes were damaged or destroyed by flooding and gale-force winds.

Exhibit 92: Asia November Events



(USD)


11/23-11/28 Flooding Vietnam 3+ 9,500+ Unknown

11/26-11/27 Flooding Sri Lanka 22+ 7,137+ Millions+

Persistent heavy rains and gusty winds in Turkey between the 8th and the 11th led to the deaths of at least seven people. Western and southern sections of the country in the Mediterranean and Aegean regions were particularly affected, where the inclement weather left serious damage to hundreds of homes and wide swaths of agricultural land. The transportation infrastructure was also impacted as numerous roads and bridges were either submerged or washed away.

Tropical Storm Banyan came ashore across central and southern sections of the Philippines on the 11th and 12th, leaving at least 10 people dead. According to the Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, Banyan dumped excessive rainfall that led to flash flooding and swollen rivers. Property damage was listed as minimal, though several main highways were closed due to flood damage.

A magnitude-6.1 earthquake rattled parts of Indonesia on the 13th, injuring dozens of people and causing widespread damage. The tremor struck at 11:16 AM (3:16 UTC) with an epicenter 100 kilometers (62 miles) southwest of Denpasar, Indonesia. According to reports from the region, the tremor damaged a significant number of structures though the damage was not severe. Ceilings reportedly collapsed at multiple schools, hotels and at ancient Hindu temples, while homes and other structures saw various levels of façade damage or cracking as well.

Tropical Cyclone 02B came ashore in Bangladesh on the 19th, though its remnants led to extensive flooding across Myanmar. At least 215 people were killed as flash floods and river flooding in central and southern sections of the country damaged or destroyed more than 8,000 homes. The transportation and agricultural infrastructures were also impacted. Total economic losses were listed at MMK11 million (USD1.7 million).

67

Impact Forecasting

A magnitude-5.3 earthquake rattled China’s Xinjiang Province on the 2nd, causing widespread damage. The tremor struck at 8:48 PM local time (12:48 UTC) with an epicenter 32 kilometers (19 miles) west-southwest of the city of Shache. The Ministry of Civil Affairs reported that at least 2,256 homes were damaged or destroyed.

Heavy rains between the 3rd and the 5th spawned flash floods across Indonesia’s Central Sulawesi Province, killing at least five people. According to officials from the National Agency of Disaster Management, the floods were most prevalent in Bolapapu village where all of the fatalities occurred and more than 250 homes, schools and other buildings were damaged or destroyed.

Torrential rains from Tropical Storm Washi prompted flash floods and river flooding across central and southern sections of the Philippines on the 16th and 17th, killing at least 1,257 people and injuring 4,663 more. The two cities which saw the most fatalities were Cagayan de Oro and Iligan in the Mindanao region after 200 millimeters (7.879 inches) of rain fell during a 12-hour period. Washi’s impacts included significant damage to homes, vehicles, churches, businesses, other structures and the transportation and electrical infrastructures. Outside of Mindanao, the Visayas region saw substantial damage and fatalities as well. According to the NDRRMC, more than 8,499 homes were damaged or destroyed and total economic losses were listed at PHP1.39 billion (USD31.7 million).

At least 26 people were killed across northern India between the 17th and the 19th after cold temperatures affected the state of Uttar Pradesh. In addition to the fatalities, the cold weather led to air and rail service disruptions.

A torrential rainstorm on the 18th in the Indonesian province of Central Java triggered flash flooding and landslides – killing at least 11 people. The town of Wonosobo sustained the majority of the damage, where 627 households were impacted.

Multiple days of heavy rains in Sri Lanka between the 21st and the 24th prompted flooding in northern, eastern and central sections of the country. At least one person was killed after the floods damaged or destroyed at least 7,500 homes.

Cyclone Thane made landfall in southern India’s Tamil Nadu state on the 29th and 30th, bringing torrential rains and gusty winds. At least 48 people were killed after the Category 1 storm left widespread damage to more than 200,000 homes and structures. The transportation and electrical infrastructures were also severely impacted. Local government officials reported economic losses in excess of INR20 billion (USD377 million).

Exhibit 93: Asia December Events

Event Date Event Name Or Type1 Event Location # Of Deaths2 # Of Structures/ Claims2,3

Damage Estimates2,4 (USD)

12/2 Earthquake China 0 2,256+ Unknown

12/3-12/5 Flooding Indonesia 5+ 250+ Unknown

12/16-12/17 TS Washi Philippines 1,257+ 48,499+ 31.7+ million

12/17-12/19 Winter Weather India 26+ Unknown Unknown

12/18 Flooding Indonesia 11+ 672+ Unknown

12/21-12/24 Flooding Sri Lanka 1+ 7,500+ Unknown

12/29-12/30 CY Thane India 48+ 200,000+ 377+ million

68


Persistent waves of heavy rains brought several weeks of major flooding across eastern Australia throughout the month of January (after beginning in December 2010). At least 36 people died and dozens more were injured in what became in economic terms, the costliest natural disaster in Australian history. The most affected areas were Queensland, Victoria and New South Wales, though Queensland bore the majority of the damage. More than 2.1 million people were affected by the floods, which were caused by dozens of major rivers and tributaries overflowing their banks and flash flooding. Hundreds of cities, towns and villages were affected, including Brisbane. Extensive damage occurred to property, the transportation infrastructure, the coal mining industry, agriculture and other notable industries and businesses. Total economic losses were listed at AUD30 billion (USD29.6 billion). The Insurance Council of Australia declared four separate catastrophes (three in Queensland) during the floods, with more than 58,463 claims being filed in Queensland (including Brisbane, Lockyer Valley and Toowoomba) with an estimated value of AUD2.4 billion (USD2.42billion). For Victoria, the ICA reported 7,952 claims with payouts totaling AUD122 million (USD123 million).

Rounds of heavy rain inundated parts of New Zealand’s Mid-Upper North Island on the 23rd and 24th, causing widespread flood damage throughout the region. Auckland and the Bay of Plenty were particularly affected, along with North Shore, Eastern Suburbs and Maraetai after roads were submerged and hundreds of homes were inundated. Total economic losses were estimated at NZD15 million (USD11.4 million), while the Insurance Council of New Zealand listed insured losses at NZD6.6 million (USD5 million).

Tropical Cyclone Wilma swept across parts of Oceania between the 25th and the 29th, leaving at least three people dead. According to local governments and International Red Cross agencies, Wilma caused considerable damage on the islands of American Samoa and four islands in the Ha’apai Island group on the 25th and 26th. Hundreds of homes and structures were affected by the combination of high winds and flooding that coincided with a high tide. The cyclone also caused significant damage to the islands’ root crops, fruit trees and the transportation infrastructure. A weakened Wilma quickly raced by New Zealand’s North Island on the 28th and 29th while bringing record rains, flooding and landslides to the region. Damage to the transportation infrastructure and sewage plants was reported. Total economic losses in New Zealand were listed in excess of NZD25 million (USD19 million), while damages in Tonga were USD3 million. The Insurance Council of New Zealand reported NZD19.8 million (USD15.9 million) in insured losses.

Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific Islands)

• Earthquakes devastate New Zealand’s greater Christchurch metropolitan region

• Historic flooding causes upwards of USD30 billion in economic damage in Australia’s Queensland

• Cyclone Yasi becomes second costliest tropical system in Australian history

Exhibit 94: Oceania January Events



(USD)

12/21-1/14 Flooding Australia (Queensland) 36+ 58,463+ 30+ billion

1/13-1/18 Flooding Australia (Victoria) 1+ 7,952+ 150+ million

1/23-1/24 Flooding New Zealand 0 500+ 11.4+ million

1/25-1/29 CY Wilma Tonga, New Zealand 3+ 1,000+ 22+ million

69

Impact Forecasting

Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi made landfall near Mission Beach in Queensland, Australia just after midnight on the 3rd, bringing extremely gusty winds, storm surge (including a 5-meter (16-feet) reading at Cardwell) and torrential rains. The storm damaged hundreds of homes close to the coastline in parts of Hinchinbrook Channel, Cardell, Tully Heads and Mission Beach. The Queensland State Emergency Service reported more than 4,000 damage incidents in the days following landfall. Infrastructure was significantly affected, including the agricultural and transportation industry. An estimated 90 percent of Australia’s banana crop was destroyed and hundreds of hectares (acres) of sugar cane were also inundated. The Australian government noted total economic losses at AUD3 billion (USD2.98 billion). The Insurance Council of Australia reported at least 72,203 claims being filed, with total payouts listed at AUD1.33 billion (USD1.34 billion).

Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms inundated parts of Victoria in Australia between the 4th and the 6th, causing widespread damage to homes, businesses and other property. The most significant effects occurred in Melbourne and its surrounding suburbs. The Insurance Council of Australia reported at least 49,396 claims having been filed, with total payouts of AUD412.3 million (USD416 million). Economic losses were estimated at over AUD422 million (USD425 million).

A bushfire damaged or destroyed suburban homes around the greater Perth metropolitan area on the 5th and 6th. No fatalities were reported, though one firefighter was injured. The bushfire began at approximately 11:45 AM local time (3:45 UTC) on the 5th by sparks from an angle grinder igniting dry grass at a time of extremely high winds. The fire charred at least 440 hectares (1,087 acres). The Perth Hills communities of Roleystone, Kelmscott and Red Hill were declared disaster zones after sustaining the majority of the damage with 71 homes destroyed and 39 more sustaining various degrees of damage. During post-event assessments, it was noted that significant damage had

occurred to the electrical network within the fire perimeter. The Insurance Council of Australia reported total payouts at AUD35 million (USD34 million). Economic losses were slightly higher.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Carlos slowly meandered across the Top End of Australia’s Northern Territory before later tracking along the Western Australian coastline between the 16th and the 22nd. The cyclone triggered heavy rainfall and periods of gusty winds. Damage reports indicated that homes and businesses were inundated by floodwaters and several main roads were submerged. At least 3,700 calls were received by the State Emergency Service. The Northern Territory Chamber of Commerce reported that Carlos cost businesses at least AUD15 million (USD15.3 million); while the Territory Insurance Office reported having received nearly 1,000 claims with losses topping AUD4.5 million (USD4.6 million). In Western Australia, Carlos affected major iron-ore projects in the Pilbara region and also spawned a tornado in Karratha that damaged at least 40 homes.

A magnitude-6.3 earthquake struck New Zealand’s South Island on the 22nd, causing significant widespread damage, fatalities and injuries. At least 182 people were killed and more than 2,000 others were injured. The tremor occurred at 12:51 PM on the 22nd (23:51 UTC on the 21st) with an epicenter near the suburb of Lyttleton in Christchurch, New Zealand at a shallow depth of 5 kilometers (3.1 miles). Extensive damage occurred throughout Christchurch as buildings collapsed into roads, parked cars were buried under rubble, water, sewer and gas lines were ruptured, streets and sidewalks split, bridges collapsed and several buildings were affected by fires in the city. More than 1,000 central city commercial buildings and 10,000 homes were destroyed. The New Zealand Earthquake Commission reported having received at least 156,522 claims. Insured losses were estimated at NZD18 billion (USD13.5 billion). According to the New Zealand government, the total combined economic impact from the September 2010, February 2011 and June 2011 earthquakes was at least NZD40.5 billion (USD30 billion).

Exhibit 95: Oceania February Events



(USD)

2/3 STC Yasi Australia 1+ 72,203+ 3+ billion

2/4-2/6 Severe Weather Australia 0 49,396+ 425+ million

2/5-2/6 Bushfire Australia 0 410+ 50+ million

2/16-2/22 STC Carlos Australia 0 4,000+ 15+ million

2/22 Earthquake New Zealand 182+ 156,473+ See text below

70


Heavy rain across parts of New Zealand caused widespread property damage in the Hawkes Bay region on the 26th and 27th. According to the New Zealand Insurance Council, total insured

losses were listed at NZD6.4 million (USD5.3 million). Total economic losses were approximately NZD10 million (USD8.3 million).

March

There were no significant natural disaster events in Oceania during the month of March.

Exhibit 96: Oceania April Events



(USD)

4/26-4/27 Flooding New Zealand 0 Hundreds+ 8.3+ million

May

There were no significant natural disaster events in Oceania during the month of May.

Exhibit 97: Oceania June Events



(USD)

6/13 Earthquake New Zealand 1+ 54,247+ See text below

The greater Christchurch, New Zealand region was struck by two aftershocks on the 13th, leaving at least one person dead, 46 more injured and causing widespread damage. According to the United States Geological Survey, the first tremor (a magnitude-5.2) struck at 1:00 PM local time (01:00 UTC) with an epicenter nine kilometers (five miles) east-southeast of Christchurch at a depth of 11 kilometers (6.8 miles). The second, and stronger, temblor (a magnitude-6.0) struck approximately 80 minutes later with an epicenter 13 kilometers (eight miles)

north-northeast of Christchurch at a depth of nine kilometers (5.6 miles). Damage was reported throughout Christchurch and its eastern suburbs due to the shaking itself and also from liquefaction and rockslides. The New Zealand Earthquake Commission received at least 54,247 claims with payouts beyond NZD2.4 billion (USD1.8 billion). According to the New Zealand government, the total combined economic impact from the September 2010, February 2011 and June 2011 earthquakes was at least NZD40.5 billion (USD30 billion).

July, August, September and October

There were no significant natural disaster events in Oceania during the months of July, August, September or October.

71

Impact Forecasting

A strong frontal boundary passed through the Australian state of Victoria on the 9th, triggering golf ball-sized hail, gusty winds and flooding rains. Widespread damage was reported across the greater Melbourne metropolitan area, though no injuries or fatalities were recorded. According to the Victoria State Emergency Service, more than 1,200 calls for help were recorded. In Melbourne, at least 340 calls were received for flood and wind damage; while another 200 were recorded in Frankston. The suburbs of Brimbank, Doncaster and Narre Warren also sustained damage as well.

Consecutive days of heavy rainfall impacted the Australia’s New South Wales, spawning both flash floods and river flooding in several communities between the 22nd and the 30th. According to the NSW State Emergency Service, more than

1,034 damage reports were received in areas including Wee Waa, Moree, Garah, Bingara and Wagga Wagga after the Mehi and Namoi rivers burst their banks. At least two fatalities were recorded. Total damages in Moree alone were listed in excess of AUD20 million (USD20 million).

A bushfire destroyed dozens of homes and structures in Western Australia on the 23rd and 24th. The fire was spawned after a prescribed burn spread out of control in the Margaret River region. According to the Department of Environment and Conservation, 32 homes, nine holiday chalets and four sheds were destroyed in the fire, while 16 houses and a shop were damaged at Prevelly, Gnarabup and Redgate. The Insurance Council of Australia declared the event a catastrophe after receiving 392 claims with payouts listed at AUD52.3 million (USD52.7 million).

Exhibit 98: Oceania November Events



(USD)

11/9 Severe Weather Australia (Victoria) 0 1,200+ Millions+

11/22-11/30 Flooding Australia (New South Wales) 2+ 1,034+ 20+ million

11/23-11/24 Bushfire Australia (Western Australia) 0 392+ 52.7+ million

Exhibit 99: Oceania December Events



(USD)

12/23 Earthquakes New Zealand 0 Unknown Unknown

12/25 Severe Weather Australia (Victoria) 0 48,000+ 256+ million

A trio of moderate earthquakes rattled the greater Christchurch region in New Zealand on the 23rd, triggering additional damage caused by ground shaking and also liquefaction. At least 60 minor injuries were recorded. The first moderate earthquake to strike on Friday was a magnitude-5.8 that occurred at 1:58 PM local time (0:58 UTC) with an epicenter 26 kilometers (16 miles) east-northeast from Christchurch at a shallow depth of 4.7 kilometers (2.9 miles). Less than ten minutes later, an even shallower magnitude-5.3 temblor struck the same region. The third strong earthquake became the most powerful jolt (a magnitude-5.9), which occurred at 3:18 PM local time (2:18 UTC) with an epicenter 15 kilometers (9 miles) east-northeast of Christchurch at a depth of 4.9 kilometers (3 miles). According to reports, the earthquakes caused additional damage throughout Christchurch and its suburbs though the scope of the damage was largely minimal.

Strong thunderstorms crossed the Australian state of Victoria on the 25th, spawning golf ball-sized hail, damaging winds, torrential rains and flooding. No serious injuries or fatalities were recorded, though damage was evident in the greater Melbourne metropolitan region. The Victoria State Emergency Service reported having received nearly 4,000 calls for help. Besides the city of Melbourne itself, areas to the north and west of the city (including Taylors Lakes, Brimbank, Greensborough, Bundoora, Eltham, Broadmeadows and Keilor) sustained the brunt of the damage. The Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) declared the event a catastrophe, after more than 48,000 claims had been filed. Total insured losses were estimated at more than AUD250 million (USD256 million).

72


Appendix A: Tropical System Frequency CorrelationsThe following shows how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects tropical system production in Northern Hemisphere tropical basins using historical National Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center data.

Atlantic Ocean Basin (ENSO)

Exhibit 100: 25-Year Atlantic Hurricane Frequency By ENSO Phase

During El Niño Phases

• Overall hurricane frequency is below average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) hurricane frequency is below average

• Landfalling hurricane frequency is below average

During La Niña Phases

• Overall hurricane frequency is above average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) hurricane frequency is above average

• Landfalling hurricane frequency is above average

During Neutral Phases

• Overall hurricane frequency is slightly above average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) hurricane frequency is near average

• Landfalling hurricane frequency is near average

0

2

4

6

8

10

Landfalling Hurricane FrequencyCategory 3+ Hurricane FrequencyHurricane Frequency

Neutral

Cool (La Niña)

25-Year Average

Warm (El Niño)

Hur

rican

es P

er Y

ear

73

Impact Forecasting

Eastern Pacific Ocean Basin (ENSO)

Exhibit 101: 25-Year Eastern Pacific Hurricane Frequency By ENSO Phase


• Overall hurricane frequency is slightly above average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) hurricane frequency is above average

• Landfalling hurricane frequency is slightly below average


• Overall hurricane frequency is below average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) hurricane frequency is below average

• Landfalling hurricane frequency is below average


• Overall hurricane frequency is above average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of 111 mph (179 kph) or greater) hurricane frequency is slightly above average

• Landfalling hurricane frequency is above average

0

2

4

6

8

10


Neutral

Cool (La Niña)

25-Year Average

Warm (El Niño)

Hur

rican

es P

er Y

ear

74


Western Pacific Ocean Basin (ENSO)

Exhibit 102: 25-Year Western Pacific Typhoon Frequency By ENSO Phase


• Overall typhoon frequency is above average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) typhoon frequency is above average

• Landfalling typhoon frequency is near average


• Overall typhoon frequency is below average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) typhoon frequency is below average

• Landfalling typhoon frequency is below average


• Overall typhoon frequency is above average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) typhoon frequency is slightly above average

• Landfalling typhoon frequency is above average

0

5

10

15

20


Neutral

Cool (La Niña)

25-Year Average

Warm (El Niño)

Typ

hoon

s Pe

r Ye

ar

75

Impact Forecasting

Southern Hemisphere (ENSO)

Exhibit 103: 25-Year Southern Hemisphere Cyclone Frequency By ENSO Phase


• Overall cyclone frequency is slightly below average

• Category 3 (sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph)) cyclone frequency is near average

• Landfalling cyclone frequency is below average


• Overall cyclone frequency is near average


• Landfalling cyclone frequency is slightly above average


• Overall cyclone frequency is slightly above average


• Landfalling cyclone frequency is slightly above average

0

5

10

15

20


Neutral

Cool (La Niña)

25-Year Average

Warm (El Niño)

Cyc

lone

s Pe

r Ye

ar

76


Appendix B: Historic Global Natural Disaster Events

The following tables provide a glimpse at historical global natural disaster data for events from 1980 to 2011.

Please note that the provided loss figures are the actual losses at the time of occurrence and have not been adjusted for inflation.

Exhibit 104: Top 10 Economic Loss Events (1980-2011)

Date Event Country/RegionEconomic Loss (USD Millions)

Insured Loss (USD Millions) Fatalities

Mar. 11, 2011 EQ/Tsunami Japan 210,000 35,000 15,844

Aug. 25-30, 2005 Hurricane Katrina United States 125,000 66,900 1,833

Jan. 17, 1995 Earthquake Japan 102,500 3,075 6,434

May 12, 2008 Earthquake China 85,000 425 87,000

Jul-Nov. 2011 Flooding Thailand 45,000 10,789 790

Jan. 17, 1994 Earthquake United States 41,800 15,300 57

Sep. 6-14, 2008 Hurricane Ike U.S.; Caribbean Islands 37,600 15,000 195

May-Sep. 1998 Floods China 32,000 1,000 3,656

Feb. 27, 2010 EQ/Tsunami Chile 30,000 8,500 525

Dec. 2010 - Jan. 2011 Floods Australia (Queensland) 30,000 2,420 36

Sources: Impact Forecasting, Insurance Information Institute, National Hurricane Center, National Climatic Data Center, USGS

Exhibit 105: Top 10 Insured Loss Events (1980-2011)



Aug. 25-30,2005 Hurricane Katrina United States 125,000 66,900 1,833

Mar. 11, 2011 EQ/Tsunami Japan 210,000 35,000 15,844

Aug. 23-27, 1992 Hurricane Andrew United States 26,750 17,000 60

Sep. 6-14, 2008 Hurricane Ike United States; Caribbean 37,600 15,000 195

Jan. 17, 1994 Earthquake United States 41,800 15,300 57

Sep. 7-21, 2004 Hurricane Ivan U.S.; Caribbean 18,800 13,800 130

Feb. 22, 2011 Earthquake New Zealand *30,000 13,500 182

Oct. 19-24, 2005 Hurricane Wilma U.S.; Mexico; Bahamas; Caribbean 21,000 12,500 40

July-Nov. 2011 Flooding Thailand 45,000 10,789 790

Sep. 20-24, 2005 Hurricane Rita United States 12,037 10,200 10

*The New Zealand gov’t has only released a combined USD30 billion economic loss total for the Sept. 2010, Feb. 2011 and June 2011 EQ events Sources: Impact Forecasting, Insurance Information Institute, National Hurricane Center, National Climatic Data Center, USGS

77

Impact Forecasting

Exhibit 106: Top 10 Fatality Events (1980-2011)



Jan. 12, 2010 Earthquake Haiti 8,000 200 230,000

Dec. 26, 2004 EQ/Tsunami Southeast Asia 15,000 2,000 227,898

Apr. 29-30, 1991 Tropical Cyclone Bangladesh 1,700 100 138,866

May 2-5, 2008 Cyclone Nargis Myanmar 10,000 N/A 138,366

Oct. 8, 2005 Earthquake Pakistan; India; Afghanistan 5,200 5 88,000

May 12, 2008 Earthquake China 85,000 425 87,000

Jul.-Aug. 2003 Heat Wave Western and Northern Europe 13,800 20 70,000

Jul.-Sep. 2010 Heat Wave Russia 15,000 20 56,000

Jun. 6, 1990 Earthquake Iran 7,100 100 40,000

Dec. 8-19, 1999 Floods Venezuela; Colombia 3,200 220 30,000

Sources: Impact Forecasting, Insurance Information Institute, National Hurricane Center, National Climatic Data Center, USGS

1 TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone

2 As reported by public news media sources and government agencies

3 Structures defined as any building — including barns, outbuildings, mobile homes, single or multiple family dwellings, and commercial facilities — that is damaged or destroyed by winds, earthquakes, hail, flood, tornadoes, hurricanes or any other natural-occurring phenomenon. Claims defined as the number of claims (which could be a combination of homeowners, commercial, auto and others) reported by various insurance companies through press releases or various public media outlets.

4 Damage estimates obtained from various public media sources, including news websites, publications from insurance companies and financial institution press releases. These estimates can include insured or economic losses except for the United States (insured losses only).

78


Bryon EhrhartChairman of Aon Benfield AnalyticsChairman of Aon Benfield Securities+1 312 381 [email protected]

Kevin CampionChief Operating OfficerAon Benfield Analytics+1 952 886 [email protected]

Adam PodlahaHead of InternationalImpact Forecasting LLC+ 44 (0)20 7522 [email protected]

Stephen MildenhallChief Executive OfficerAon Benfield Analytics+1 312 381 [email protected]

Steve JakubowskiPresidentImpact Forecasting LLC+1 312 381 [email protected]

Steve BowenSr. Scientist/MeteorologistImpact Forecasting LLC+1 [email protected]

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© Impact Forecasting® LLC. No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® LLC has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® LLC does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances.©Aon Corporation. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting® is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon Corporation.

About Impact ForecastingImpact Forecasting LLC is a catastrophe model development center of excellence within Aon Benfield whose seismologists,

meteorologists, hydrologists, engineers, mathematicians, GIS experts, finance, risk management and insurance professionals analyze the

financial implications of natural and man-made catastrophes around the world. Impact Forecasting’s experts develop software tools and

models that help clients understand underlying risks from hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, wildfires and terrorist attacks on

property, casualty and crop insurers and reinsurers. Impact Forecasting is the only catastrophe model development firm integrated into

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© Impact Forecasting LLC, 2011. All rights reserved.This document is intended for general information purposes only and should not be construed as advice or opinions on any specific facts or circumstances. The comments in this summary are based upon Aon Benfield’s preliminary analysis of publicly available information. The content of this document is made available on an “as is” basis, without warranty of any kind. Aon Benfield disclaims any legal liability to any person or organization for loss or damage caused by or resulting from any reliance placed on that content. Aon Benfield reserves all rights to the content of this document.#8042 - 12/2011