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2010 WORLD MIGRATION REPORT
Regional Overviews on Regional Overviews on Migration TrendsMigration Trends
Roberto Pitea & Susanne MeldeResearch Officers
Research and PublicationsInternational Organization for Migration
Cairo / Geneva
OUTLINE
• Introduction
• Regional
Overviews
1. Asia
2. Oceania
3. Americas
4. Middle East
5. Africa
6. Europe2
Regional Overviews on…
• Key regional migration trends
• New: The impact of the global financial crisis
Based mostly on data by
• UN Population Division – 2009 revision
• World Bank
• DRC Global migrant origin database
• Others (national, etc.)
INTRODUCTION
3
1. ASIA
• Continuing increase in the estimated international migrant stock since 2005 to an expected 27.5 million in 2010 (UNPD, 2009)
• Migration less significant in relative terms (<1%) (UNPD, 2009)
• Number of refugees rose by 2.5 million since 2005
• 4 of the top 10 migration corridors worldwide are in Asia (WB, 2008):
- Bangladesh India (3.5 million migrants)
- India UAE (2.2 million)
- The Philippines United States (1.6 million)
- Afghanistan Iran (1.6 million) 4
1. ASIA
Source: World Bank, 2006; 2008
Environmental migration
• 31 million people, or 86% of all people displaced by disasters in 2008 were living in Asia (OCHA/IDMC, 2009)
5
Stock of emigrants from Asia by country of destination, 2005
United States25%
Saudi Arabia11%
India18%
Iran5%
Malaysia5%
Singapore6%
Canada6%
China, Hong Kong SAR
8%Others (South)
11%
Japan5%
Top ten emigration countries in Asia, 2005
India
China
Bangladesh
Philippines
Pakistan
Vietnam
Afghanistan
Indonesia
South Korea
Malaysia
millions0 2 4 6 8 10
1.5
1.6
1.7
2
2.2
3.4
3.6
4.9
7.3
1. ASIA
Impact of the economic crisis
• Remittances expected to remain strong in South and East Asia despite decrease globally, lagged impact possible
• Rising unemployment rates in some destination countries of Asian workers, especially in construction, manufacturing and services sectors
• Restrictions on new admissions of migrant workers and non- renewal of work permits in Asian destination countries:South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand
6
2. OCEANIA• Continuing increase in the estimated international migrant
stock to over 6 million in 2010 (UNPD, 2009)
• Highest regional share recorded worldwide
• Migration will constitute >20% of the population growth from 2005-2010
7
Australia17%
New Zealand20%Europe
4%Asia7%
Pacif ic Islands13%
North America36%
Others3% Australia
New Zealand
Europe
Asia
Pacif ic Islands
North America
Others
Source: DRC, 2007
Pacific Islands, Stock of emigrants (%) by country/ region of destination
2. OCEANIA • Brain drain remains crucial issue for Pacific Islands:
Emigration rate of skilled workers to OECD area (2000)
- Palau: 80.9% - Kiribati: 55.7%
- Tonga: 75.6% - Marshall Islands: 42.8%
- Fiji: 62.8%
• Positive net migration rate decreased from 4.1 % to 2.8 % from 2000- 2005 to 2005-2010 (UNPD, 2009)
Impact of the economic crisis• Decreasing remittance in-flows (Pacific Islands) and out-flows
(Australia and New Zealand)
• To cope with rising unemployment rates Australia and New Zealand introduced more restrictive immigration measures 8
3. AMERICAS
• Number of international migrants rising from almost 35 million in 1990 to over 57.5 million in 2010 (UNPD, 2009)
• Feminization of migration in LAC, decreasing share of women among migrants residing in North America 9
Stock of migrants in North America, by destination Stock of migrants in the Americas, as a share of total population
Source: UNPD, 2009
5,555
34,814
6,304
39,266
7,202
42,813
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
Canada
U.S.
Thousands2000 2005 2010 21.3
22.5
23.6
26.4
30.7
31.9
36.6
39.2
46.5
56.5
63.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Canada
Guadeloupe
Antigua and Barbuda
Netherlands Antilles
Bermuda
Aruba
U.K. Virgin Islands
Anguilla
French Guiana
U.S. Virgin Islands
Cayman Islands
%2000 2005 2010
3. AMERICAS
• 32 million emigrants - or 4% of the population - from the Americas region in 2005, 20 million of those resided in the US
10Source: World Bank, 2006
Destination countries of emigrants from LAC, 2005
United States 64%Spain 7%
Argentina 4%
Venezuela 3%
Canada 2%
UK 1%
Japan 1%
Costa Rica 1%
Others 17%
From M exico
57%
From other LAC
countries43%
LAC emigration into the U.S.
3. AMERICAS
Source: World Bank, 2009
Impact of the economic crisis
LAC remittance recipients with the largest declines in 2009
• Migrants from LAC particularly affected as industries hit hardest in main destination countries employ large shares of migrant workers
-20
0
20
40
60
Latin Americaand
Caribbean
Mexico Colombia Jamaica Honduras El Salvador
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e
Yearly growth rate %
4. MIDDLE EAST• With an estimated 28.8 million migrants in 201028.8 million migrants in 2010, the
Middle East witnessed an increase of 4.5 million an increase of 4.5 million migrants since 2005.
• The Middle East thus continues to be one of the fastest growing migrant receiving regions, with a yearly growth rate of migration stock of 3.8 per cent yearly growth rate of migration stock of 3.8 per cent (UN PD, 2009).
• Economic growth and labour shortages in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), as well as conflict and insecurity in Mashreq acted as the main drivers of mobility to and from the region in the past years.
12
4. MIDDLE EAST
13
-25.0%
-15.0%
-5.0%
5.0%
15.0%
25.0%
Egypt Lebanon Jordan
Growth of Remittance Flows to Select Mashreq Countries
2008 (Q1-Q3) 2008 (Q4)2009 (Q1) 2009 (Q2)
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Arab countries North America Main EU destination countries*
Growth in remittance inflows to Egypt by sending countries
Q3 (2008) Q4 (2008) Q1 (2009) Q2 (2009)
• Recruitment agencies in Egypt and Jordan reported a drop by up to a half in demand for labour in the Gulf region beginning in 2008 (Awad, 2009).
• Remittance growth has slowed down in 2008 and became negative in the first quarters of 2009.
4. MIDDLE EAST
14
• Media polls in the UAE report that one in ten residents reported having lost their jobs because of the financial crisis. 58 % of unemployed foreign 58 % of unemployed foreign workers planned to stay in the UAEworkers planned to stay in the UAE.
•• 29 % of Pakistani workers in Saudi Arabia 29 % of Pakistani workers in Saudi Arabia identified employment and opening a business in Pakistan as a possible alternative to the crisis.
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
KSA - Egypt UAE - Egypt Other GCC -Egypt
Remittance outflows from GCC to Egypt
2009 (Q1) 2009 (Q2) 2009 (Q3) 2009 (Q4)
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
KSA - Pakistan UAE - Pakistan Other GCC -Pakistan
Remittance outflows from GCC to Pakistan
2009 (Q1) 2009 (Q2) 2009 (Q3) 2009 (Q4)
5. AFRICA
• With an estimated 19 19 million migrants in 2010million migrants in 2010, Africa witnessed an increase of 1.5 million increase of 1.5 million migrants since 2005, with a yearly growth rate of yearly growth rate of migrant stock of 1.7 per migrant stock of 1.7 per cent cent (UN PD, 2009).
• Africa remains a continent with strong migration dynamics. International migration takes place mostly within the African continent. 15
African emigrants by region of destination
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
East andCentralAfrica
NorthAfrica
SouthernAfrica
WesternAfrica
Africa Middle EastEU North AmericaOther
5. AFRICA• Conflicts, income inequality
and environmental change result in very low levels of human security.
• Out of 26 million people displaced internally world wide, at least 10 million 10 million (38%) (38%) are living in East and Central Africa. Almost 700 700 thousand thousand people were displaced in Africa in 2008 as a result of environmental disasters.
16
Changes in Migrant Stock in Africa according to regions. 2005 - 2010
South Africa
Burkina Faso
Nigeria
Ghana
Tanzania Sudan
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Eastern andCentralAfrica
NorthernAfrica
SouthernAfrica
WesternAfrica
Thou
sand
s
5. AFRICA
17
-50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
150.0%
Morocco Sudan Nigeria Cape Verde
Year-on-year growth in remittances inflows per quarter for select countries
of North and West Africa
2008 (Q2) 2008 (Q3) 2008 (Q4)
2009 (Q1) 2009 (Q2) 2009 (Q3)
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Kenya Uganda Ethiopia Mauritius
Year-on-year growth in remittances inflows per quarter for select
countries in East Africa.
2008 (Q2) 2008 (Q3) 2008 (Q4)2009 (Q1) 2009 (Q2) 2009 (Q3)
• Closures in the mining sector, traditional employer of migrant workers, have led to mass layoffs in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (100.000), South Africa (40.000) and Zambia (3.000)
• Anecdotal evidence suggests that irregular African migrants in EU have not returned due to economic situation in their home countries
6. EUROPE
18
• With 72.6 million migrants in 201072.6 million migrants in 2010, Europe is the top receiving region of migrants worldtop receiving region of migrants world--wide wide (1/3 migrants worldwide)
• Europe witnessed an increase of 5.1 million an increase of 5.1 million migrantsmigrants since 2005.
• Migrants represent 8.7 per cent of the total 8.7 per cent of the total European populationEuropean population
6. EUROPE
19
• EU enlargement: Early evidence suggests that migration flows between the EU8 and EU15 member states have been quite modest on average and modest on average and unequally distributed unequally distributed across different member states such as the UK, Austria and Ireland.
• Emigration from Europe is mostly within the continent and towards other countries of the OECD.
• Russia remains the top receiving country (ethnic Russians and citizens of former USSR). After the 2006 reform of migration laws three quarters of three quarters of labor migrants obtained work permits labor migrants obtained work permits (15-25 before 2006). Unregistered migrants reduced to a third (15 percent of total stock).
6. EUROPE
20
• Following many years of continuous increase, a fall in labour migration has become apparent since the second half of 2008 in virtually all EU countries due to a significant decline in international recruitment by employers.
6. EUROPE
21
• Many EU Member States have implemented new migration policies in response to the crisis, including:
• More stringent conditions for admission stringent conditions for admission under labour migration programmes and reduction in quotas (Italy, Spain, Russia, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Russian Federation and Ukraine)
•• Stricter labour market tests Stricter labour market tests (UK and Estonia)
•• Decreased possibilities to change status and/or Decreased possibilities to change status and/or to renew work permitsto renew work permits, and stricter controls stricter controls on family and persons entering on grounds of humanitarian protection (Italy)
• Incentives to return ““pay to go schemespay to go schemes”” (UK, Czech Republic and Spain)
