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2010
Improvement of the competitiveness of enterprises: analysis of net effects
Prof. Jarosław GórniakRafał Trzciński
26.02.2010
Objective of the evaluation study
The main objective of the study was to estimate and assess the real effects of Sectoral Operational Programme Improvement of the Competitiveness of Enterprises, years 2004-2006 (SOP-ICE). Two measures were covered by the study:
Measure 2.1 – Improvement of competitiveness of SMEs through advice,
Measure 2.3 – Improvement of competitiveness of SMEs through investments
Background of the problem
?
Factor I
Factor II
Problem: low
competitiveness of enterprises
SOP-ICE
Effects
The research problem
To what extent has the intervention contributed to the observed effects?
What is the net effect of the implemented programmes?
Net effect – the difference between what is observed and what would have been observed had the
intervention not been implemented
How to measure the net effect?
Revenues from sale:
€ 2 million € 1,5 million
Net effect =
Counterfactual
0,5 million
€ = ?
?
Counterfactual € = ?
Propensity score matching
Propensity score matching method helps to ensure that the treatment and control groups are similar in terms of observable characteristics (reduction of selection bias).
The propensity score is the probability of assignment to treatment (program, project, etc.) given a set of covariates X.
Propensity score is unknown and needs to be estimated, for instance, by using logistic regression.
The main assumption: control group shows what would have happened to participants if they had not participated in the programme (selection bias is eliminated by conditioning on a set of observable variables).
Propensity score matching in its simplest form
NON-PARTICIPANTSCONTROL GROUP
ps= 0,6ps= 0,5
ps= 0,8ps= 0,1
ps= 0,2
ps= 0,3ps= 0,2
ps= 0,01
ps= 0,4
ps= 0,9
TREATMENT GROUP (PARTICIPANTS)
ps= 0,8 ps= 0,3
ps= 0,9 ps= 0,4
ps= 0,1
Evaluation of the Sectoral Operational Programme Improvement of the Competitiveness of Enterprises
Evaluated programs
Measure 2.1 was aimed at increasing the competitiveness of Polish SMEs through facilitating their access to specialised advisory assistance.Budget: PLN 59,6 million (average level of co-
financing amounted to PLN 27,8 thousand). Measure 2.3 was aimed at improvement of
competitiveness of Polish SMEs through modernisation of their product and technological offer.Budget: PLN 1 489,6 million (average value of co-
financing amounted to PLN 505,4 thousand).
Data sets used in the evaluation PAED data sets (databases of all applicants; databases
containing information on the participation in other programs – Phare SME, SOP-HRD), 19 covariates such as age, revenue, size, legal form,
assets, the use of other funding etc. Central Statistical Office data sets collected in the so-called F-
01/I-01 form (Report on revenues, costs and financial results and the cost of fixed assets) 30 outcome variables such as net revenues from sale,
average paid employment, expenditures, costs, etc. In the first case the data were used for the selection of the
control group, In the second case the data were used to estimate the net
effect of the support.
Model review (Measure 2.3)
Variable Treated
(mean value)Untreated
(mean value)Control group(mean value)
The standardized difference in percent
(before matching)
The standardized difference in percent
(after matching)Total employment 73,3095 203,6780 70,2619 -1,48 0,03Employment of women 20,5097 171,3047 18,4324 -1,71 0,02Revenues 68032,5452 133853,2120 77556,1103 -5,27 -0,76Assets 39844,9119 158897,6398 31228,8509 -3,17 0,23Amount of deminimis 14170,8455 10479,6290 14917,1959 4,66 -0,94Age 10,6512 10,7992 10,6376 -1,77 0,16Percentage of women ,2714 ,3343 ,2745 -25,75 -1,26Employment growth before the programme
,6571 ,5367 ,6700 24,72 -2,66
Revenue growth before the programe
,7288 ,5981 ,7171 27,92 2,51
Assets growth before the programe
,7082 ,6067 ,7006 21,52 1,62
Number of contracts signed in Phare
1,2365 ,4825 1,3088 57,34 -5,50
Value of signed contracts in Phare
17417,7968 5771,3597 17886,0127 49,78 -2,00
Application in SOP-ICE 2.1 ,0776 ,0121 ,0700 32,06 3,74Contract in SOP-ICE 2.1 ,0518 ,0059 ,0453 27,67 3,90Contract in SOP-HRD 2.3 ,1406 ,0152 ,1194 48,10 8,12… … … … … …
Results
Effects of advisory program (Measure 2.1)
Net effect:PLN 2 942thousand
43,3%
Effects of advisory program (Measure 2.1)
Net effect:PLN 861thousand
Effects of advisory program (Measure 2.1)
79,2%
24,3%
Net effect:PLN 1 077thousand
Effects of advisory program (Measure 2.1)
Net effect:PLN 2 864thousand
30% 44,6%
Effects of advisory program (Measure 2.1)
29,4% 20,8%
Net effect:5 FTE
Effects of advisory program (Measure 2.1)
Net effect:PLN 335thousand
65,4% 41,9%
Effects of advisory program (Measure 2.1)
Net effect:PLN 542thousand
48,4% 85%
Effects of advisory program (Measure 2.1)
Net effect:PLN -72thousand
71,4%
18,4%
Effects of advisory program (Measure 2.1)
Net effect:PLN 1thousand
105,9% 100%
Effects of investment program (Measure 2.3)
Net effect:PLN 2 359thousand
47,6%
48,1%
Effects of investment program (Measure 2.3)
Net effect:PLN 1 391thousand
55,5%
70,1%
Effects of investment program (Measure 2.3)
Net effect:PLN 829thousand
42,4%
Effects of investment program (Measure 2.3)
Net effect:PLN 2 429thousand
46,9%
Effects of investment program (Measure 2.3)
Net effect:14 FTE
20,5%
34,1%
Effects of investment program (Measure 2.3)
59%
Effects of investment program (Measure 2.3)
Net effect:PLN 652thousand
74,7%
95,6%
Effects of investment program (Measure 2.3)
Net effect:PLN 223thousand
72,4%
303,7%
Effects of investment program (Measure 2.3)
9,5%
260,4%
The main conclusions
The main conclusions
SOP-ICE improved competitivness of participating SMEs.
The effects of advisory programme (2.1) clearly surpassed the effects of investment programme (2.3) at the time of evaluation.
Results assessment in relative terms differs from calculated in absolut terms – percent versus money.
Estimation of the net effect ≠ evaluation
Net effect measurement addresses effectivness of the programme and does it well.
Among others, it does not cover non-intended consequences of the programme – is fully goal based.
It has to be supplemented with insight addressing other evaluation criteria guided by the (re)constructed programme theory.
Thank you for your attention!
Polish Agency for Enterprise Development81/83 Pańska Street
00-834 Warsaw, Poland
Tel + 48 (22) 432 80 80Fax + 48 (22) 432 86 20
+ 48 (22) 432 84 04
Infoline: + 48 (22) 432 89 91/92/93www.parp.gov.pl