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Which candidate will you ‘buy’?
Conjoint Analysis, from marketing studies to electoral research
Janko Hočevar & Toni Gril
Summer School in Methods and Techniques 2009
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3
Agenda
Part I.
• Intro to Conjoint Analysis
- Idea
- History
- Flavors
Part II.
• Conjoint Analysis in the context of political research
• Case studies:
- Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000
- Slovenian presidential elections 2002
• Q&A
::
Part I.
Intro to Conjoint Analysis
Ask people what they want, and they say, “the best of everything”.
Ask them what they would like to spend, and they say, “a little as possible”.
– Bryan K. Orme
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5
Slide borrowed from: Batsell R., Chrzan K., Baggett S., SawtoothSoftware Conference, Barcelona 2008.
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6
Slide borrowed from: Batsell R., Chrzan K., Baggett S., SawtoothSoftware Conference, Barcelona 2008.
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7
Slide borrowed from: Batsell R., Chrzan K., Baggett S., SawtoothSoftware Conference, Barcelona 2008.
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John
Slide borrowed from: Batsell R., Chrzan K., Baggett S., SawtoothSoftware Conference, Barcelona 2008.
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9
Mary
Slide borrowed from: Batsell R., Chrzan K., Baggett S., SawtoothSoftware Conference, Barcelona 2008.
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10
Bubba
Slide borrowed from: Batsell R., Chrzan K., Baggett S., SawtoothSoftware Conference, Barcelona 2008.
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11
4,0
4,5
4,2
4,2
4,6
4,2
4,4
3,8
3,9
1 2 3 4 5
Fancy
Family-Oriented
Outdoorsy
Laid back
Calm
Exciting
Entertaining
Sexy
Romantic
• Bias toward high importance in ratings
• Lack of discrimination
• Different respondents use the scale differently
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12
• Ask Direct Questions about preference:
- What brand do you prefer?
- What Interest Rate would you like?
- What Annual Fee would you like?
- What Credit Limit would you like?
• Answers often trivial and unenlightening (e.g. respondents prefer low fees to
high fees, higher credit limits to low credit limits)
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13
CA Idea
• People cannot reliably express how they weight separate features of the
product/service
• But can evaluate the overall desirability of a complex product/service profile – a
more realistic approach
- Based on a function of the value of its separate (yet conjoined) parts
• We can break product/services into features (attributes & their levels)
• Based on how people evaluate the combined features (profiles) we can deduce
the preference scores people might have assigned to individual features of the
product/service
- That are the result of those overall evaluations
• A back-door, decompositional approach for estimating people‟s preferences,
rather than an explicit approach of simply asking people to rate, rank, .. separate
features
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14
CA Short History
• Based on the work by:
- Luce & Tukey in 60‟s Luce, D. & J. Tukey ,1964. Simultaneous conjoint measurement: A new type of fundamental measurement. Journal of
Mathematical Psycchology
- McFadden in 70‟s - Discrete choice methods McFadden, D. 1974. Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. In P. Zarembka (ed.), Frontiers in
Econometrics, pp. 105-142. New York: Academic Press.
• Early 70s
- work of P. Green: Green, P. & V. Rao 1971, August. Conjoint measurement for quantifying judgemental data. Journal of Marketing
Research
- work of R. Johnson: • Johnson, R. 1974, May. Trade-off analysis of consumer values. Journal of Marketing Research
• 80‟s
- Green & Wind: application of conjoint analysis to help Marriott design its new Couryard Hotel • S. Herman & Bretton-Clark software released software system
- R. Johnson (at Sawtooth Software) released a software system Adaptive Conjoint Analysis (ACA)
• 90‟s
- Discrete Choice overtakes Traditional Conjoint methods • Commercial software released (SawtoothSoftware CBC)
• Application of of hierarchical Bayes (HB) methods to estimate individual-level models from discrete choice data (led by G. Allenby of the Ohio State University)
• 00‟s and beyond
- Maximum-Difference Scaling
- Adaptive Choice Based Conjoint (ACBC) software released by SawtoothSoftware in 2009
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15
Two broad types of CA
• “Traditional” CA
- uses data collected from sequential ratings, rankings or graded (rated) paired
comparisons followed by an analysis using simple linear models
- Use of “choice simulators” to predict individuals‟ preferences and choices
• No Choices are observed
• Choice-based Conjoint Analysis (CBC).
- uses data collected from a series of choices (from “choice sets”), followed by an
analysis using probabilistic choice models.
- Use of choice simulators to predict individuals‟ preferences and choices
• Choices are observed
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16
CA Terminology
• Attribute
- A feature of product/service: Brand, Price, Pack type,...
• Attribute Level
- A value or range of variation for an attribute:
• Coca Cola, Pepsi,..., 0.5€, 0.6€,..., 0,33 l Can, 0,5 l Plastic Bottle
• Profile / Concept
- A combination of attribute levels: Coca-Cola at 0.5€ in a 0,33 l Can
• Design
- the attribute combinations that make up product/service profiles/concepts and how
those profiles/concepts are combined within tasks.
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17
Design
• Orthogonality:
- each level appears an equal number of times with every other level of different
attributes. (zero correlation between pairs of attributes)
• Level Balance:
- within each attribute, each level appears an equal number of times.
• Minimal Overlap:
- achieve maximum variation across levels of an attribute within a (choice) task
(try not to repeat a level).
• Designs which are orthogonal and balanced are optimally efficient.
• In the real world: well-balanced, "nearly orthogonal“ designs
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18
CA Research Process
• Identify attributes that underlie consumer preferences for products/services.
• Select levels or values of each attribute to represent ranges of variation in real
markets
• Create product or service profiles generated from some type of experimental
design
• Administer to a sample of respondents
• Analyze the data
- Relative importance
- Utilities or Part-Worth's
- Simulations
- Optimizations
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19
CA Data Analysis
• Parameter estimates
- OLS
- MNL (HB)
• Simulations
- First choice rule
- Purchase Likelihood
- Share of Preference
- Randomized First Choice
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20
Basic Flavors
• CVA – Conjoint Value Analysis (traditional)
- One or two full profile concepts
- One design / experiment
- Rating
- OLS
- Individual parameter estimation
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21
Basic Flavors
• ACA – Adaptive Conjoint Analysis
- Two partial profile concepts
- Concepts complexity manipulation
- Unique individual design / experiment
- Starting point from direct (self-explicated) input
- Rating
- OLS
- Individual parameter estimation
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22
Starting point
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23
Starting point
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24
Paired comparison section
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25
Calibration part
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26
• CBC – Choice Based Conjoint
- Two or more concepts
- Full or partial profile
- Multiple designs / experiments
- Alternative specific designs
- Fixed / Constant alternatives
• (e.i. I wouldn‟t buy anything; I‟d stay with my current service; NONE)
- Choices, allocations (Constant Sum allocation)
- Group / Semi-individual parameter estimation (MNL HB)
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27
A Choice Task
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28
Alternative specific
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29
Partial profile
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30
What can we do with Conjoint data?
• Base case predictions linked with descriptive data
- who chooses what?
• Great input for segmentation (cluster analysis, latent class,...)
• Simulations (what if?)
- Sensitivity analysis (what if? systematically)
• Optimizations (best configurations)
• A simulator mimics a certain situation, that may or may not happen in reality (like
a flight simulator).
• The purpose is to estimate the probable effects of products/services.
• For this, the simulator needs input
- Data to describe the situation (scenario definition)
- Data on how consumers react (utilities from conjoint)
- Definition of the calculation
• Changing (part of) this data will result in new scenarios and new output
::
Part II.
Conjoint Analysis in the context of political research
Case studies:
Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000
Slovenian presidential elections 2002
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32
The premise
• The outcome of presidential or party contest is influenced by many factors
- party identification, candidate personality, campaign strategy and tactics, financing,
etc.
• In a real „purchase situation‟, „consumers‟ do not make choices based on a
single attribute. Consumers examine a range of features or attributes and then
make judgments or trade-offs to determine their final purchase choice.
• This is just as true for the „choice‟ made in political situations, such as assessing
the viability of a candidate, determining the support of various political,
economic, social issues.
Product:
• Candidate (not „branded‟) / Political Party (not „branded‟ but with issues
positions)
• Political Parties / Candidates are:
- Managed as Products/Services
- Advertised as Poroduct/Services
- Communicated as Products/Services
::
Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000
Client: The Mladina Magazine
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34
Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000
• Determine issues relative importance to voters, the most and least popular
position on each issue, the impact of a given position on voting behavior, and
the relative strength of different candidate profiles.
• To do that, we asked each respondent to rate a series of hypothetical pair of
candidates who have either a „liberal‟, „centrist‟, or „conservative‟ position on
each of 5 issue categories.
• Issues were the subject of debate in the campaign, and the position descriptions
were determined from positions that the candidates have actually taken and
were exposed in the media.
• C.A.T.I., n = 601
• ACA
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35
Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000
5 attributes & a total of 14 levels:
• History:
- Past injustices are settled, what is important
is the future
- There is no future unless we settle past
injustices
- The future must be a priority, but we must
never forget the past injustices
• Roman-Catholic church
- RCC should be included in the political
decision making
- RCC should be consulted only with the
essential political issues
- RCC must be excluded from political sphere
• Equalitarianism
- The state should determine maximum wage
of all managers in all companies
- The state should determine maximum wage
only of managers in state owned companies
- The state should not interfere with managers
wages
• Welfare
- Every single individual should take care of
his/hers social welfare (health care, pension
welfare,...)
- The state and every single individual should
take care of social welfare
- The state should take care of the whole
social welfare of its citizens
• Lustration
- Those who were appointed to management
positions by the former political system,
should stay there if they are capable and
qualified
- We should remove all those who were
appointed to management positions by the
former political system
• 10 pair
• 2 attributes in pair
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36
Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000
Roman-Catholic
church
21,6%
Equalitarianism
19,7%
History
20,3%
Lustration
15,5% Welfare
22,9%
Relative importance of issues
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37
Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000
2,6
-20,4
17,8
-22,7
8,314,4
-0,3
9,5
-9,2
-39,9
19,7 20,1 20,9
-20,9
-50,0
-40,0
-30,0
-20,0
-10,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
Past in
justic
es a
re s
ettle
d, fu
ture
is
import
ant
There
is n
o futu
re
The futu
re m
ust be a
priority
RC
C s
hould
be in
clu
ded
RC
C s
hould
be c
onsulte
d
RC
C m
ust be e
xclu
ded
The s
tate
should
dete
rmin
e
maxim
um
wage
The s
tate
should
dete
rmin
e
maxim
um
wage o
nly
sta
te o
wned
com
panie
s
The s
tate
should
not in
terf
ere
Every
sin
gle
indiv
idual s
hould
take
care
The s
tate
and e
very
sin
gle
indiv
idual
should
take c
are
The s
tate
should
take c
are
of th
e
whole
socia
l welfa
re
Sta
y if
they a
re c
apable
and q
ualif
ied
We s
hould
rem
ove a
ll
History Roman-Catholic church Equalitarianism Welfare Lustration
Utilities / Part Worth's
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38
Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000
• Max – Min horse race
- Max purchase likelihood = 62,43%
- Min purchase likelihood = 20,47%
- Max : Min | 80,6% : 19,4%
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39
Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000
-3,63
-8,62
0
-8,44
-1,87
0
-1,82
0
-4,15
-13,5
-0,11 0 0
-10,16
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Pa
st
inju
stice
s
are
se
ttle
d,
Th
ere
is n
o
futu
re
Th
e fu
ture
mu
st b
e a
pri
ori
ty
RC
C
sh
ou
ld b
e
inclu
de
dR
CC
sh
ou
ld b
e
co
nsu
lte
dR
CC
mu
st
be
exclu
de
d
Th
e s
tate
sh
ou
ld
de
term
ine
Th
e s
tate
sh
ou
ld
de
term
ine
Th
e s
tate
sh
ou
ld n
ot
inte
rfe
re
Eve
ry
sin
gle
ind
ivid
ua
lT
he
sta
te
an
d e
ve
ry
sin
gle
Th
e s
tate
sh
ou
ld ta
ke
ca
re o
f th
e
Sta
y if th
ey
are
ca
pa
ble
We
sh
ou
ld
rem
ove
all
History Roman-Catholic church Equalitarianism Welfare Lustration
2,58
0
5,4
0
4,555,36
1,952,66
0 0
9,89 10,31
6,8
00
2
4
6
8
10
12
Past
inju
stic
es
are
settle
d,
There
is n
o
futu
re
The futu
re
must be a
priority
RC
C
should
be
inclu
ded
RC
C
should
be
consulte
d
RC
C m
ust
be
exclu
ded
The s
tate
should
dete
rmin
e
The s
tate
should
dete
rmin
e
The s
tate
should
not
inte
rfere
Every
sin
gle
indiv
idual
The s
tate
and e
very
sin
gle
The s
tate
should
take
care
of th
e
Sta
y if
they
are
capable
and
We s
hould
rem
ove a
ll
History Roman-Catholic church Equalitarianism Welfare Lustration
Max = 62,43%, ABS % gain / loss
Min = 20,47%, ABS % gain / loss
::
40
Slovenian parliamentary elections 2000
• Issues positions to avoid / to put out
- Where? (geography, not really applicable in Slovenia), to whom? (gender, age,...) ...
• Voter‟s profile
• (Respondent) Party identification profile
• Handling “don‟t knows” or “refused to answer” modalities
::
Slovenian presidential elections 2002
Client: FDV
::
42
Slovenian presidential elections 2002
• Determine issues relative importance to voters, the most and least popular
position on each issue, the impact of a given position on voting behavior, and
the relative strength of different candidate profiles.
- To do that, we asked each respondent to rate a series of hypothetical pair of
candidates who have either a „liberal‟, „centrist‟, or „conservative‟ position on each of
four issue categories.
- Issues were the subject of debate in the campaign, and the position descriptions
were determined from positions that the candidates have actually taken and were
exposed in the media.
• Determine relative importance of demographic characteristics of a presidential
candidate and the impact on voting behavior.
- To do that, we asked each respondent to rate a series of hypothetical pair of
candidates described with demographic characteristics.
• C.A.T.I., issues n = 750, demo n = 786
• ACA
::
43
Slovenian presidential elections 2002
Political issues:
3 attributes & a total of 7 levels:
• History:
- Past injustices are settled, what is important
is the future
- There is no future unless we settle past
injustices
• Roman-Catholic church
- RCC should take active part in the political
decision making
- RCC should be consulted only with the
essential political issues
- RCC must be excluded from political sphere
• Foreign policy
- Joining NATO, EU and to open way for
foreign investments takes careful
consideration of every step we make
- There should be no hesitation with joining
NATO, EU and to open way for foreign
investments
• 10 pair
• 2 / 3 attributes in pair
Demographic profile:
3 attributes & a total of 8 levels
• Gender - Male
- Female
• Age - 40 yrs or younger
- Between 40 and 60 yrs old
- Older than 60 yrs
• Background - In Politics
- In Economy
- In other profession (health, science, culture, education, sport,...)
• 12 pair
• 2 / 3 attributes in pair
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44
Slovenian presidential elections 2002
Relative importance of issues Relative importance of demo
Roman-Catholic
church
46,0%
History
29,5%
Foreign policy
24,5%
Age
45,2%
Gender
17,1%Background
37,7%
::
45
Slovenian presidential elections 2002
Issue Utilities / Part Worth's Demo Utilities / Part Worth's
26,1
-26,1-33,3
-24,8
58,2
25,9
-25,9
-40,0
-20,0
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
Past
inju
stices a
re s
ett
led,
futu
re is
import
ant
There
is n
o f
utu
re
RC
C s
hould
take a
ctive p
art
RC
C s
hould
be c
onsulted
RC
C m
ust
be e
xclu
ded
NA
TO
, E
U,
...
Care
ful consid
era
tion o
f
every
ste
p
NA
TO
, E
U,.
.. N
o h
esitation
History Roman-Catholic church Foreign policy
7,1
-7,1-10,2
51,5
-41,3
-0,3
19,7
-19,4
-60,0
-40,0
-20,0
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
Male
Fem
ale
40 y
rs o
r younger
Betw
een 4
0 a
nd 6
0 y
rs o
ld
Old
er
than 6
0 y
rs
In P
olit
ics
In E
conom
y
In o
ther
pro
fessio
n
Gender Age Background
::
46
Slovenian presidential elections 2002
Male – Female horse race (same profile; 40-60 yrs old, background in economy)
- Randomized First Choice rule:
• Male : Female | 52,9% : 47,1%
Winner Max purchase likelihood = 62,67%, ABS % gain / loss
0,0
-3,0
-11,2
0,0
-16,5
-4,1
0,0
-7,1
-18,0
-16,0
-14,0
-12,0
-10,0
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
Male Female 40 yrs or
younger
Between 40
and 60 yrs
old
Older than
60 yrs
In Politics In Economy In other
profession
Gender Age Background
::
47
Slovenian presidential elections 2002
Official result (2nd round)
• J. Drnovšek = 56,54 %
• B. Brezigar = 43,46 %
Simulation:
• J. Drnovšek
(Male, 40-60 yrs old, background in politics):
56,20%
• B. Brezigar
(Female, 40-60 yrs old, background in other profession /public prosecutor/):
43,80%
::
48
“Life is one big conjoint analysis . . . one tradeoff
after another.”
– Paul E. Green