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2007 National Consumer Congress Mapping the future — Australia’s consumer demographics. Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift and The Big Picture Partner KPMG Australia 14 March 2007. 1901. 2001. Inner city. Coastal. Inner city. Coastal. 5%. 19%. 8%. 25%. Rural. 17%. Suburbia. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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2007 National Consumer Congress
Mapping the future — Australia’s consumer demographics
Bernard Salt
Author The Big Shift and The Big Picture
Partner KPMG Australia
14 March 2007
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
kpmg
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
kpmg
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
kpmg
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
kpmg
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
kpmg
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
kpmg
Push from the bush
• Suburban culture emerged during the 20th Century• Provincial coastal culture now ascendant • Underpinned by lifestyle-seeking baby boomers• Edna Everage; Neighbours 1985; Kath & Kim 2002
2001
Inner city5%
Suburbia59%
Rural17%
Coastal19%
1901
Inner city25%
Suburbia15%
Rural52%
Coastal8%
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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1. Gold Coast 13,563
2. Wanneroo 7,941
3. Melton 6,814
4. Wyndham 6,660
5. Casey 6,429
6. Blacktown 4,955
7. Brisbane SW 4,839
8. Rockingham 4,616
9. Ipswich 4,240
10. Cairns 4,099
Population and business hotspots
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Telecommuting lifestyle towns are evolving at Palm Beach (NSW), Mt Tambourine (Qld), Daylesford (Vic), Birdwood (SA), Falmouth (Tas) and Cundinup (WA) … and this was in 2001 prior to Broadband and 3G technology
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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Why population shifts are important to business
10,000 extra residents support job growth, eg:
• 3,700 new suburban households, or
• 6,700 new inner-city households
• $82 million in new retail spending*
• $28 million in new supermarket spending*
• ½ a Kmart
• One cinema screen
• 7,500 cubic metres of pre mix concrete
Population loss reverses these markets*includes GST
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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Our shifting heartland is changing the consumer focus
Areas of population loss and growth between 1976 and 2006 Losers
Winners
Narooma
Port Stephens
Port Macquarie
Coffs Harbour
Gold Coast
CaloundraNoosaHervey Bay
Yeppoon
Townsville
Port Douglas
MacedonRanges
Denmark
East Pilbara
Ngaanyatjarraku
Leonora
Broome
Palmerston
Busselton
Geraldton
Augusta-MargaretRiver Victor Harbor
Sorell
Proserpine
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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Coastal towns require infrastructure and services
The driving force for many Australians is the pursuit of lifestyle either on the beach or up in the hills
Bun
bury
Her
vey
Bay
Man
dura
hB
usse
lton
Cai
rns
Mac
kay
Tow
nsvi
lleG
old
Coa
st-T
wee
dD
arw
inA
lban
yS
unsh
ine
Coa
stM
ildur
aB
unda
berg
Gla
dsto
neB
endi
goP
erth
Mou
nt B
arke
rB
alla
rat
She
ppar
ton
Livi
ngst
one
(Yep
poon
)T
oow
oom
baW
arrn
ambo
olC
offs
Har
bour
Bris
bane
Now
ra-B
omad
erry
Bat
hurs
tM
ount
Isa
Wag
ga W
agga
Sin
glet
onM
elbo
urne
Tam
wor
thLi
smor
eG
reat
Lak
es (
For
ster
)G
eral
dton
Grif
fith
Beg
a V
alle
yG
eelo
ngR
ockh
ampt
onA
lbur
y-W
odon
gaC
anbe
rra-
Que
anbe
yan
Gra
fton
La T
robe
Val
ley
Gre
ater
Hob
art
Eur
obod
alla
(N
aroo
ma)
Bal
lina
Nam
bucc
aW
inge
carr
ibee
(B
owra
l-Mos
s V
ale)
Syd
ney
Dub
boA
dela
ide
Bur
nie-
Dev
onpo
rtO
rang
eN
ewca
stle
Arm
idal
eP
ort M
acqu
arie
Laun
cest
onM
ount
Gam
bier
Tar
ee (
Gre
ater
)Li
thgo
wB
urde
kin
(Ayr
)K
emps
eyM
aryb
orou
ghW
ollo
ngon
gB
yron
Alic
e S
prin
gsK
algo
orlie
/Bou
lder
Gou
lbur
nB
roke
n H
illW
hyal
laJo
hnst
one
(Inn
isfa
il)
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Po
pu
lati
on
ch
ang
e: 2
005-
to
200
6
Innisfail
BunburyHervey Bay
Mildura
Mandurah
National average
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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Y/E January 2007 1997/07 2006/07
$b % change % change
Supermarkets, grocery & convenience stores 62.8 77% 7%
Take-away food retailing 9.4 36% 3%
Other food retailing 16.5 95% 11%
Total department stores 16.6 43% 3%
Clothing retailing 10.5 74% 4%
Other clothing related retailing 3.8 53% 5%
Furniture & floor covering retailing 7.7 120% 7%
Domestic hardware & houseware 9.5 123% 1%
Domestic appliances & recorded music 15.4 69% 9%
Newspapers, books & stationery retailing 5.3 38% -5%
Other recreational goods retailing 3.0 33% 7%
Pharmaceutical & cosmetic retailing 9.4 105% 10%
Other retailing 12.5 76% 4%
Hotels and licensed clubs 19.5 72% 4%
Cafes & restaurants 13.0 114% 13%
Selected services 2.8 63% 6%
Total retail & hospitality 218 74% 6%
Household formation, pharmacy and lifestyle drive consumer spending
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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0 9010 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Gen Y
Change in life expectancy over 80 years
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australia’s Health 2004 (AIHW)
Gen Y is stretching the teenage years
Child Adolescence Lifestyle OldRetired2008 82
Adult
Child Teen OldAdult1968 71
Child Adult Old1928 63
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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Born 1976-1991 … now aged 16-31
Often a single child of baby boomer parents
Matured to adulthood in prosperous times
Many live at home with mum & dad
Not committed in their 20s … to marriage, mortgage, children, careers
May turn out to be the “Disappointed Generation”
Different views on loyalty to friends, to workmates, to employers
Prefer ‘deals’ not contracts and ‘mentors’ not bosses
Highly educated, opportunistic and global in their thinking
Characteristics of Generation Y
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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50,000
150,000
There is a demographic logic behind the rise of Generation Y … in Australia …
1950 2050
Boomer Gen X Gen Y
2007
Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 yearsSource: KPMG Property Advisory (2007); Australian Historical Population Statistics, ABS (2004); Population Projections, Australia, 2004 to 2101 (2006)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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… in Japan …
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
1950 2050
Boomer Gen X Gen Y
2007
Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 yearsSource: KPMG Property Advisory, Statistics Bureau of Japan (2006)
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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… and in the US
Source: KPMG Property Advisory, US Census Bureau (2006)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
1950 2050
Boomer Gen X Gen Y
2007
Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years
The “Latino Lift”
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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What winning businesses must do
Offer careers within careers
Focus on work-life balance
Engage with staff
Create culture of positive relationships
Transmit consistent messages/values
In the early decades of the 21st Century, winning businesses will get their people strategy right
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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The ageing of the average Aussie bride
Source: Australian Demographic Statistics; Marriages and Divorces
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
19
21
19
24
19
27
19
30
19
33
19
36
19
39
19
42
19
45
19
48
19
51
19
54
19
57
19
60
19
63
19
66
19
69
19
72
19
75
19
78
19
81
19
84
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
Bridegrooms
Baby boomer brides were 21 in 1971
Xer brides were 29 in 2002
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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Behold the Great Australian Man Drought
Source: ABS 3201.0 (2004) Unpublished historical data (1976)1976 2006
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Male surplus
30-39 1976 2006
Men 936,400 1,493,100
Women 882,200 1,502,300
Male surplus +54,200 -9,200
Male deficit
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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YE June Men WomenMale Surplus
1968 137,000 136,000+1,000
1969 139,000 140,000-1,000
1970 144,000 145,000-1,000
1971 148,000 150,000-2,000
1972 154,000 157,000-3,000
1973 159,000 161,000-2,000
1974 149,000 151,000-2,000
1975 148,000 150,000-2,000
Women born in 1972 have got it toughest
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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The fella filter
Total men aged 25-34 1,381,000
Less married 485,000
Total Prime Available Male Product 86,000
Less than 6 per cent of men survive the Fella Filter
Less gay relationship 7,000
Less men not earning $60k + pa (2005) 568,000
Less defacto 185,000
Less single parent (baggage) 12,000
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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The fella filter delivers geeks and bean counters
1. Accountant 3,460
2. Sales & marketing manager 2,657
3. Software designer 2,233
4. Applications & analyst programmer 2,148
5. Fitter 1,593
6. General electrician 1,540
7. Systems designer 1,400
8. Management consultant 1,370
9. Solicitor 1,277
10. General manager 1,252
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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Young Kiwi men are not in New Zealand
Source: Statistics New Zealand1976 2006
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84
30-39 1976 2006
Men 190,600 273,900
Women 186,000 304,200
Male surplus 4,500 -30,300
Male deficit
Male surplus
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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Out with the Brady Bunch, in with Bridget Jones
• Mum, Dad & the Kids has been the leading social structure at the household level in Australia for several decades
• By 2021 ‘families’ and couples are eclipsed by singles – who then pull ahead in 2020s
1991 2001 2031
Singles 20 24 31
Couples 24 26 29
One-parent family 10 11 11
Mum, Dad & the Kids 41 33 24
Group households 5 4 3
Other family 1 1 1
Households (‘000s) 6,450 7,789 11,580
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
Baby boomers just won’t die!
Source: ABS Censuses; ABS Series B Projections September 2003
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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It doesn’t get any better after 43-48 …
40
5430
25
70
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,0001
5
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
51
54
57
60
63
66
69
72
75
78
81
84
87
90
93
96
99
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
‘Rich’ live longer
Boomers at their peak until June 2006 … then the slide begins
Last 20 years Next 20 years
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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… but discretionary spending peaks in the 50s
Source: KPMG Property Advisory Group; Australian Bureau of Statistics
Per
son
s p
er h
ou
seh
old
Income
Persons
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 8485
+
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
Average rent/mortgage cost Average household income per person
Average household disposable income Persons per household
Rent
Disposable
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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Big shift in attitudes to retirement next decade
60,000
140,000
1950 20502007
Source: KPMG Property Advisory (2007); Australian Historical Population Statistics, ABS (2004); Population Projections, Australia, 2004 to 2101 (2006)
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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Generational traits
• Born 1946-1961
• Now aged 46-61
• 4.1 million
• Idealistic; career-orientated; consumerist
• Promoted ‘young’ and propped
• Peak income earning 1991-2005
• Succession planning, advisory boards, non-executive directors
• Inter-generational fight
Boomers
• Born 1961-1976
• Now aged 31-46
• 4.4 million
• Realists; cynical
• Held back by “old fart log-jam”
• Peak income earning 2006-2021
• Assuming positions of high office now
• Must deal with baby boomers in retirement
Gen X
• Born 1976-1991
• Now aged 16-31
• 4.6 million (ultimately)
• Experiential; ethicists; uncommitted to career; relationships
• Extended adolescence
• Helicopter kids; kippers
• Peak income earning 2021-2036
• Technology savvy; global thinking
• Inherit boomer wealth
Gen Y
© 2007 KPMG, an Australian partnership, is part of the KPMG International network. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. All rights reserved.The KPMG logo and name are trademarks of KPMG.
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Further information & contact
• The Big Picture – $29.95rrp out now
• Bernard Salt’s column appears in The Australian every Thursday
• Bernard Salt’s columns appear monthly in Wish Magazine
• Population Growth Database 2006 now available at $495: contact [email protected]
• Contact: Bernard Salt (03) 9288 5047; [email protected]; www.bernardsalt.com.au
The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.