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2005 Roundtable Report Card Below you will find the Roundtable members’ investment picks and pans for 2005. Most of the Barron’s Roundtable panelists are active money managers, and thus take no pledge to stick by the stocks and opinions they offer up at the start of each year. For those who want to keep score, however, here’s how their ideas performed through Dec. 30. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 rallied 3% in 2005. Scott Black’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change A.M. Castle CAS $11.61 $21.84 88.1% National RV Hldgs NVH 11.30 6.69 -40.8 Pacific Sunwear PSUN 23.75 24.92 4.9 Whiting Petroleum WLL 29.00 40.00 37.9 Aspen Insurance AHL 25.20 23.67 -6.1 Citigroup C 48.65 48.53 -0.2 Abby Joseph Cohen’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change ADP ADP $42.60 $45.90 7.7% 3M MMM 82.30 77.50 -5.8 Medtronic MDT 50.20 57.57 14.7 Pfizer PFE 26.30 23.32 -11.3 MBNA KRB 28.49 27.15 -4.7 Exxon Mobil XOM 49.79 56.17 12.8 Marc Faber’s Picks Real Estate: Istanbul, Berlin, India PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change Currencies 1 : U.S. Dollar Against South African Rand $1=6.09 $1=6.65 9.2% British Pound Sterling £1=$1.87 £1=$1.79 -4.3% Thailand (baht) Bangkok Dusit Med BGH TB 16.40 23.70 44.5% Thai Reinsurance THRE TB 4.10 4.98 21.5 Commodities Corn (per bushel) $2.07 $2.16 4.3% Short: US Homebuilders Centex CTX $55.98 $71.49 27.7% Hovnanian HOV 46.09 49.64 7.7 Toll Brothers TOL 33.56 34.64 3.2 Lennar LEN/B 49.63 56.69 14.2 Mario Gabelli’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change Cavco Industries CVCO $23.20 $38.28 65.0% General Mills GIS 50.94 49.32 -3.2 Aztar AZR 34.40 30.39 -11.7 U.S. Cellular USM 49.40 49.40 0.0 Industrials Thomas Industries 2 TII $37.01 $40.00 8.1% Thomas & Betts TNB 28.35 41.96 48.0 Cooper Industries CBE 64.62 73.00 13.0 T.V. Broadcasters Fisher Comm FSCI $49.33 $41.43 -16.0% LIN TV TVL 17.95 11.14 -37.9 (Gabelli cont’d) Entertainment Vivendi Universal V $31.84 $31.40 -1.4% Walt Disney DIS 27.17 23.97 -11.8 Time Warner TWX 18.90 17.44 -7.7 Cable Companies Cablevision CVC 24.68 23.47 -4.9% Rogers Comm RG 25.86 42.26 63.4 Liberty Global 3 LBTYA 43.41 43.70 0.7 UnitedGlobalCom 4 UCOMA 9.19 9.79 6.5 Bill Gross’ Picks Price/Yield Price/Yield Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 iShares Lehman TIPS TIP $104.83/4.1% $102.82/5.98% iShares Lehman 1-3 Yr Treasury Bond SHY 81.33/1.9 80.21/3.24 BlackRock Ins Muni BMT 11.23/5.1 10.36/5.60 PIMCO All Asset 5 PAAIX 12.55/5.8 12.72/6.07 Long iShares S&P 500/Barra Value IVE $61.54/1.7% $65.05/2.51% Short iShares Russell 2000 Growth IWO $63.11/0.3% $69.66/0.55% Fred Hickey’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change Short Best Buy BBY $36.77 $43.48 18.2% Research in Motion RIMM 74.30 66.01 -11.2 eBay EBAY 53.29 43.22 -18.9 Semicon Holdrs Trust SMH 31.48 36.64 16.4 Long Newmont Mining NEM $41.50 $53.40 28.7% Archie MacAllaster’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change Pfizer PFE $26.30 $23.32 -11.3% Lyondell Chemical LYO 28.32 23.82 -15.9 Fifth Third Bancorp FITB 45.95 37.72 -17.9 JPMorgan Chase JPM 38.40 39.69 3.4 St. Paul Travelers STA 36.98 44.67 20.8 Allstate ALL 51.03 54.07 6.0 El Paso EP 10.51 12.16 15.7 Fidelity Natl Finl. 6 FNF 39.98 36.79 27.7 John Neff’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change Citigroup C $48.65 $48.53 -0.2% St. Paul Travelers STA 36.98 44.67 20.8 (Neff cont’d) Short Price/Yield Price/Yield 1/7/05 12/30/05 30-year gov’t bond 107-30/4.84% 112-16/4.54% Art Samberg’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30 Change Companhia Vale do Rio Doce RIO $26.68 $41.14 54.2% Berkshire Hathaway BRK/A $87,500 $88,620 1.3 Energy Transfer Partners ETP 28.05 34.24 22.1 Carter’s CRI 33.15 58.85 77.5 Gemstar-TV Guide GMST 5.61 2.61 -53.5 EMI Group (pence) EMI LN 253.0 242.5 -4.2 Take-Two Interactive TTWO $21.50 17.70 -17.7 Samsung Elec (won) 005930 KS 440,500 659,000 51.9 Oscar Schafer’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change Thomson TMS $26.12 $20.94 -19.8% Shire Pharma SHPGY 33.90 38.79 14.4 OMI OMM 15.88 18.15 14.3 CryoLife CRY 6.92 3.34 -51.7 Meryl Witmer’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change 3i Group (pence) III LN 665.0 847.5 27.4% Assurant AIZ $30.38 $43.49 43.2 Leap Wireless LEAP 26.05 37.88 45.4 Imagistics 7 IGI 32.34 42.01 29.9 Felix Zulauf’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change Currency 1 Dollar/Euro Œ0.77 Œ0.83 7.8% Commodities: Energy Crude Oil (per barrel) $45.65 $61.90 35.6% Crude Oil Dec ’09 $37.00 $60.49 63.5 Transocean RIG 40.22 69.69 73.3 Grains/Argriculture Wheat (per bushel) $3.10 $3.39 9.4% Corn (per bushel) 2.07 2.16 4.3 Soybeans (per bushel) 5.42 6.14 13.3 Australian Agr. AAC AU A$1.59 A$1.56 -1.9 Short Nasdaq 100 Futures 1,567.50 1,659.00 Frontline FRO $37.06 $37.92 2.3% Kuehne & Nagel KNIN SW 235 CHF 370.5 CHF 57.7% 1 This was a six-month position; exchange rates through 6/30/05 2 Acquired 7/05 3 Co. issued 1 shr Series C stock for every Common held. 4 Acquired 6/05 5 Net asset value used for price 6 Price change reflects $10 special cash dividend paid 3/28/05 and 17.5% spin-off of Fidelity National Title 7 Acquired 11/05 Source: Bloomberg

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Page 1: 2005 Roundtable Report Card - Reprintswebreprints.djreprints.com/BA-RT_Report0601.pdf · 2005 Roundtable Report Card ... Berkshire Hathaway BRK/A $87,500 $88,620 1.3 Energy Transfer

2005 Roundtable Report CardBelow you will find the Roundtable members’ investment picks and pans for 2005. Most of the Barron’s Roundtable panelists are active money managers, and thus take no pledge to stick by the stocks and opinions they offer up at the start of each year. For those who want to keep score, however, here’s how their ideas performed through Dec. 30. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 rallied 3% in 2005.

Scott Black’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change

A.M. Castle CAS $11.61 $21.84 88.1%

National RV Hldgs NVH 11.30 6.69 -40.8

Pacific Sunwear PSUN 23.75 24.92 4.9

Whiting Petroleum WLL 29.00 40.00 37.9

Aspen Insurance AHL 25.20 23.67 -6.1

Citigroup C 48.65 48.53 -0.2

Abby Joseph Cohen’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change

ADP ADP $42.60 $45.90 7.7%

3M MMM 82.30 77.50 -5.8

Medtronic MDT 50.20 57.57 14.7

Pfizer PFE 26.30 23.32 -11.3

MBNA KRB 28.49 27.15 -4.7

Exxon Mobil XOM 49.79 56.17 12.8

Marc Faber’s PicksReal Estate:

Istanbul, Berlin, India

PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change

Currencies 1: U.S. Dollar Against

South African Rand $1=6.09 $1=6.65 9.2%

British Pound Sterling £1=$1.87 £1=$1.79 -4.3%

Thailand (baht)

Bangkok Dusit Med BGH TB 16.40 23.70 44.5%

Thai Reinsurance THRE TB 4.10 4.98 21.5

Commodities

Corn (per bushel) $2.07 $2.16 4.3%

Short: US Homebuilders

Centex CTX $55.98 $71.49 27.7%

Hovnanian HOV 46.09 49.64 7.7

Toll Brothers TOL 33.56 34.64 3.2

Lennar LEN/B 49.63 56.69 14.2

Mario Gabelli’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change

Cavco Industries CVCO $23.20 $38.28 65.0%

General Mills GIS 50.94 49.32 -3.2

Aztar AZR 34.40 30.39 -11.7

U.S. Cellular USM 49.40 49.40 0.0

Industrials

Thomas Industries 2 TII $37.01 $40.00 8.1%

Thomas & Betts TNB 28.35 41.96 48.0

Cooper Industries CBE 64.62 73.00 13.0

T.V. Broadcasters

Fisher Comm FSCI $49.33 $41.43 -16.0%

LIN TV TVL 17.95 11.14 -37.9

(Gabelli cont’d)

Entertainment

Vivendi Universal V $31.84 $31.40 -1.4%

Walt Disney DIS 27.17 23.97 -11.8

Time Warner TWX 18.90 17.44 -7.7

Cable Companies

Cablevision CVC 24.68 23.47 -4.9%

Rogers Comm RG 25.86 42.26 63.4

Liberty Global 3 LBTYA 43.41 43.70 0.7

UnitedGlobalCom 4 UCOMA 9.19 9.79 6.5

Bill Gross’ Picks Price/Yield Price/Yield Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05

iShares Lehman TIPS TIP $104.83/4.1% $102.82/5.98%

iShares Lehman 1-3 Yr

Treasury Bond SHY 81.33/1.9 80.21/3.24

BlackRock Ins Muni BMT 11.23/5.1 10.36/5.60

PIMCO All Asset 5 PAAIX 12.55/5.8 12.72/6.07

Long

iShares S&P 500/Barra Value IVE $61.54/1.7% $65.05/2.51%

Short

iShares Russell 2000 Growth IWO $63.11/0.3% $69.66/0.55%

Fred Hickey’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change

Short

Best Buy BBY $36.77 $43.48 18.2%

Research in Motion RIMM 74.30 66.01 -11.2

eBay EBAY 53.29 43.22 -18.9

Semicon Holdrs Trust SMH 31.48 36.64 16.4

Long

Newmont Mining NEM $41.50 $53.40 28.7%

Archie MacAllaster’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change

Pfizer PFE $26.30 $23.32 -11.3%

Lyondell Chemical LYO 28.32 23.82 -15.9

Fifth Third Bancorp FITB 45.95 37.72 -17.9

JPMorgan Chase JPM 38.40 39.69 3.4

St. Paul Travelers STA 36.98 44.67 20.8

Allstate ALL 51.03 54.07 6.0

El Paso EP 10.51 12.16 15.7

Fidelity Natl Finl. 6 FNF 39.98 36.79 27.7

John Neff’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change

Citigroup C $48.65 $48.53 -0.2%

St. Paul Travelers STA 36.98 44.67 20.8

(Neff cont’d)

Short Price/Yield Price/Yield 1/7/05 12/30/05

30-year gov’t bond 107-30/4.84% 112-16/4.54%

Art Samberg’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30 Change

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce RIO $26.68 $41.14 54.2%

Berkshire Hathaway BRK/A $87,500 $88,620 1.3

Energy Transfer Partners ETP 28.05 34.24 22.1

Carter’s CRI 33.15 58.85 77.5

Gemstar-TV Guide GMST 5.61 2.61 -53.5

EMI Group (pence) EMI LN 253.0 242.5 -4.2

Take-Two Interactive TTWO $21.50 17.70 -17.7

Samsung Elec (won) 005930 KS 440,500 659,000 51.9

Oscar Schafer’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change

Thomson TMS $26.12 $20.94 -19.8%

Shire Pharma SHPGY 33.90 38.79 14.4

OMI OMM 15.88 18.15 14.3

CryoLife CRY 6.92 3.34 -51.7

Meryl Witmer’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change

3i Group (pence) III LN 665.0 847.5 27.4%

Assurant AIZ $30.38 $43.49 43.2

Leap Wireless LEAP 26.05 37.88 45.4

Imagistics 7 IGI 32.34 42.01 29.9

Felix Zulauf’s Picks PRICE Ticker 1/7/05 12/30/05 Change

Currency1

Dollar/Euro Œ0.77 Œ0.83 7.8%

Commodities: Energy

Crude Oil (per barrel) $45.65 $61.90 35.6%

Crude Oil Dec ’09 $37.00 $60.49 63.5

Transocean RIG 40.22 69.69 73.3

Grains/Argriculture

Wheat (per bushel) $3.10 $3.39 9.4%

Corn (per bushel) 2.07 2.16 4.3

Soybeans (per bushel) 5.42 6.14 13.3

Australian Agr. AAC AU A$1.59 A$1.56 -1.9

Short

Nasdaq 100 Futures 1,567.50 1,659.00

Frontline FRO $37.06 $37.92 2.3%

Kuehne & Nagel KNIN SW 235 CHF 370.5 CHF 57.7%

1 This was a six-month position; exchange rates through 6/30/05

2 Acquired 7/05

3 Co. issued 1 shr Series C stock for every Common held.

4 Acquired 6/05

5 Net asset value used for price

6 Price change reflects $10 special cash dividend paid 3/28/05 and 17.5% spin-off of Fidelity National Title

7 Acquired 11/05 Source: Bloomberg