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Impact
s of Long-t
erm
Clim
ate
Change
on India
n A
gri
culture
Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture
Hyderabad
G.G
.S.N
.Rao
Pro
ject
Coord
inato
r (A
gro
met
)
G.G
.S.N
.Rao
Pro
ject
Coord
inato
r (A
gro
met
)
Occurs due to changes in
•Composition and
circulation of
•Atm
osphere &
•Oceans
•Hydrological cycle
•Land surface
Climate Change
2007 W
arm
est Y
ear
•Fig
ure
show
s 2007 t
em
per
atu
re a
nom
alies
rela
tive
to t
he
1951-1
980 b
ase
perio
d m
ean.
•The g
lobal m
ean t
em
peratu
re a
nom
aly
, 0.5
7°C
(about
1°F
) w
arm
er t
han
the 1
951-1
980 m
ean, continues
the str
ong w
arm
ing trend o
f th
e p
ast
thir
ty
years
that
has
been confidently attri
bute
d to
th
e effect
of
incre
asing
hum
an-m
ade g
reenhouse
gase
s (G
HG
s) (H
anse
n e
t al. 2
007).
•The e
ight w
arm
est
years
in the G
ISS r
ecord h
ave a
ll o
ccurre
d s
ince 1
998,
and the 1
4 w
arm
est
years in
the r
ecord h
ave
all o
ccurred sin
ce 1
990.
Evidenc
e for
reality
of clim
ate
chang
eEvidenc
e for
reality
of clim
ate
chang
e
Glaciers m
elting
Glaciers m
elting
Glaciers m
elting
1900 2003
Alpine glacier, Austria
1900 2003
Alpine glacier, Austria
1909
Toboggan
Glacier
Alaska
2000
Muir Glacier, Alaska
All-India monsoon rainfall during 1871-2000
Shows no significant long-term
trend
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Years
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
Rainfall (mm)
Annual rainfall
trends
CRIDA
N
Gosw
ami
et a
l.,
Sci
ence
, D
ec.,
200
6
Ch
anges
in
th
e F
requ
ency
Dis
trib
uti
on
of
Extr
emes
C
han
ges
in
th
e F
requ
ency
Dis
trib
uti
on
of
Extr
emes
du
rin
g 1
951
du
rin
g 1
951-- 1
970
and 1
980
1970
an
d 1
980-- 2
000
2000
Climate during last seven years
0.7
2006
Yea
rR
ain
fall D
epartu
re (%
)
2000
-11
2001
-15
2002
-19
2003
+2
2004
-13
2005
-1
2007
1.0
Extreme Events
Extreme Events
All India
All India
Rainfall
Rainfall
••2002 drought
2002 drought
••20 day heat wave during May 2003 in Andhra Pradesh
20 day heat wave during May 2003 in Andhra Pradesh
••Extreme cold winter in the year 2002
Extreme cold winter in the year 2002-- 0303
••Drought like situation in India in July 2004
Drought like situation in India in July 2004
••Abnormal temperatures during March 2004 and Jan 2005
Abnormal temperatures during March 2004 and Jan 2005
••Floods in 2005
Floods in 2005
••Cold wave 2005
Cold wave 2005 --0606
••Floods in arid Rajasthan & AP and drought in NE regions in 2006
Floods in arid Rajasthan & AP and drought in NE regions in 2006
••Abnormal temperatures during 3
Abnormal temperatures during 3rdrdweek of Jan to 1
week of Jan to 1ststweek of Feb 2007
week of Feb 2007
Impact of ISMR anomalies on Crop Production
y = -0.0067x2 + 0.4884x
R2 = 0.5236
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
-25
-20
-15
-10
-50
510
15
20
ISMR anomaly (%)
Crop Production Anomaly (%)
7.1
020
5.8
315
4.2
210
2.2
85
0.0
00
-2.6
1-5
-5.5
5-1
0
-8.8
3-1
5
-12.4
4-2
0
Crop
Production
(Im
pact) %
ISM
R
Anom
aly
Deficient rainfall
has more impact
compared to above
normal rainfall
Ref. M.Rajeevan, NCC,IMD, Pune
Pro
ble
ms w
ith A
gri
culture
in India
•G
reen
Rev
olu
tion fatigue
•Low
pro
duct
ivity in r
ain
fed a
reas
–Sm
all h
old
ings
–Subsist
ence
–M
ercy
of m
onso
on
–Lim
ited
wate
r and land
–D
isea
se, pes
ts, dro
ught, w
eeds
–Sto
rage
and tra
nsp
ort
ation
�C
onven
tional pla
nt im
pro
vem
ent m
ethods are
reach
ing thei
r lim
its
�A
gri
cultura
l gro
wth
is now
<2%
com
pare
d to
3%
in 1
970s
Thus, tec
hnolo
gy m
ust
ev
olv
e and
per
cola
te to the
end-u
ser
at a m
uch
fast
er p
ace
“We must aim at an agricultural growth of 4% per year, if India has to
achieve its ambition of overall economic growth rate of over 8 %
per
annum”
(Prime Minister’s Inaugural Speech at National Conference on Krishi Vigyan
Kendrasin New Delhi. October 27, 2005)
Though the XthPlan assumed a growth rate of 4% for agricultural
production, the reality was different…
. the first 3 years we have not been
able to ensure 1.5% rate of growth…. We are focusing on technological
breakthroughs for scaling up yields…
.
Clim
ate
change
Impact
s on A
gri
culture
•Shifts
in the sow
ing tim
e a
nd length
of grow
ing seaso
ns geogra
phic
ally
•In
most
tropic
al
and s
ub-tropic
al
regio
ns
pote
ntial
yie
lds
are p
roje
cte
d t
o
decrease
for m
ost
proje
cte
d incr
ease
s in
tem
per
atu
re
•In
mid
-latitu
des, c
rop m
odels indic
ate
that
warm
ing o
f le
ss t
han a
few
°C
and th
e ass
ocia
ted in
crease
in
C
O2 concentr
ations
will
lead to
generally
positive r
esp
onse
s and g
enerally n
egative
resp
onse
s w
ith g
reate
rw
arm
ing.
•In
tr
opic
al
agri
cultural
are
as, sim
ilar ass
ess
ments
in
dic
ate
th
at
yie
lds
of
som
e cr
ops
would
decre
ase
w
ith even m
inim
al
increase
s in
te
mperatu
re
because
they
are
near
their
maxim
um
tem
peratu
re tole
rance
•M
ost
of
the
sim
ula
tion s
tudie
s have s
how
n a
decre
ase
in t
he d
uration a
nd
yie
ld o
f crops as te
mperatu
re
increase
d in d
iffe
rent parts
of In
dia
.
•Y
ield
s of
both
kharif
andrabi cr
ops
decre
ase
d a
s te
mper
atu
re
incre
ase
d;
a
2°C
increase
res
ulted in 1
5-1
7 p
er
cent
decre
ase
in t
he
grain
yie
ld o
f both
crops, b
ut bey
ond that th
e d
ecre
ase
was very
hig
h in w
heat.
Pote
ntial Im
pact
s of C
lim
ate
Change
on A
gri
culture
•W
heat
yie
lds
in c
entr
al
India
are
likel
y t
o s
uffer b
y u
p t
o 2
per c
ent
in t
he
pess
imistic s
cenario
but th
ere
is a
lso a
poss
ibility that th
ese
mig
ht im
prove b
y 6
per c
ent if the g
lobal change is optim
istic
•Sorghum
, bein
g a
C4 p
lant, d
oes
not
show
any s
ignific
ant
resp
onse
to incre
ase
in C
O2 a
nd h
ence the
diffe
rent sc
enario
s do n
ot affect its yie
ld.
•The
nutr
itio
nal
quality
of
cere
als a
nd p
ulses
may a
lso b
e m
oder
ate
ly
affec
ted w
hic
h,
in tu
rn,
will
have
conse
quen
ces
for
our
nutr
itio
nal
secu
rity
•The
change
in c
lim
ate
may b
ring a
bout ch
anges
in p
opula
tion d
ynam
ics,
gro
wth
and d
istr
ibution o
f in
sect
s and p
ests
.
•M
ost
crops
have C
3 p
hoto
synth
esis
(resp
onsive to C
02), w
hile m
any w
eeds
are
C4 p
lants
(non-r
esp
onsive to C
O2). T
he
clim
ate
change c
haracte
riz
ed b
y h
igher
CO
2 c
oncentr
ation w
ill fa
vour c
rop g
row
th o
ver w
eeds.
•U
nder the c
lim
ate
change sce
nario
, th
e o
nse
t of th
e sum
mer m
onso
on o
ver India
is p
roje
cte
d to b
e d
ela
yed a
nd o
ften u
ncerta
in.
Pote
ntial Im
pact
s of C
lim
ate
Change
on A
gri
culture
Climate Chan
ge an
d C
rop Productivity
Tem
perature Effects on C
rop Y
ield –
Sev
eral M
ajor Crops
Cro
pTopt,
°C
Tm
ax,
°C
Yie
ld
at Topt,
t/ha
Yie
ld
at 28
°C, t/ha
Yie
ld a
t
32°C
t/ha
% d
ecre
ase
(28 to 3
2 °C
)
Ric
e25
36
7.5
56.3
12.9
354
Soybea
n28
39
3.4
13.4
13.0
610
Dry
bea
n22
32
2.8
71.3
90.0
0100
Pea
nut
25
40
3.3
83.2
22.5
820
Gra
in
sorg
hum
26
35
12.2
411.7
56.9
541
Sta
tion
Cro
p
Increase
in w
ate
r
requir
em
ents
(2020-2
005)
mm
Anak
apalli
Maize
51.7
Groundnut
61.3
Anan
tapur
Groundnut
70.1
Red
gram
174.3
Jagtial
Cotton
60.5
Maize
49.0
Rajen
dranag
arRed
gram
114.5
Groundnut
73.0
Tirupathi
Groundnut
73.0
Projected Crop Water Requirement
Sta
tion
Cro
p
Red
uct
ion in
crop d
ura
tion
(wee
ks)
Anakapalli
Maiz
e1
Groundnut
1
Ananta
pur
Groundnut
1
Red g
ram
1
Jagtial
Cotton
2
Maiz
e1
Raje
ndra
nagar
Red g
ram
2
Sorghum
1
Tir
upath
iG
roundnut
1
Changes in crop duration
Impact
s of ch
angin
g c
lim
ate
on r
ice
pro
duct
ion in T
am
il N
adu
5217
4843 ( -7.1 %)
3218 (-38.3 %)
2200 (-57.8 %)
4858
4348 ( -10.5%)
3556 ( -26.8%)
2458 ( -49.4 %)
3945
3665 ( -7.0%)
3123 ( -20.8 %)
2597 ( -34.1 %)
4367
3977 ( -8.9%)
3145 ( -27.9 %)
2307 (-47.2 %)
4829
4403 ( -8.8 %)
3379 (-30.0 %)
2108 ( -56.3 %)
4920
4576 ( -6.9 %)
3686 ( -25.0 %)
2365 (-51.9 %)
6267
5688 ( -9.2%)
5115 (-17.8%)
4534 ( -27.6 %)
3985
3489 (-12.4 %)
3056 ( -23.3 %)
2340 ( -41.2 %)
5989
5335 ( -10.9 %)
4594 (-23.3 %)
3400 ( -43.2 %)
4156
3712 ( -10.6 %)
3012 (-27.5%)
2511 ( -39.5 %)
4595
4045 ( -11.9 %)
3508 ( -23.6 %)
2977 (-35.2%)
5262
4997 ( -5.0 %)
4565 ( -13.2%)
3181 ( -39.5%)
3510
3254 ( -7.3 %)
2875 ( -18.0 %)
2234 ( -36.3%)
4961
4612 ( -7.0 %)
3852 ( -22.4 %)
2956 ( -40.4%)
4157
3684 ( -11.3 %)
3023 ( -27.2 %)
2643 ( -36.4%)
Base
2020
2050
2080
Tamil
Nadu
-8.7
-23.6
-42.2
Range
-6.9 to 12.4
-13.2 to 38.3
-27.6 to 57.8
Open Top Chamber Facility at CRIDA, Hyderabad
•Under
elevated CO
2
conditions the initiation
of spike was early and
No. of female flowers
per
spike
were
increased
Impact of elevated CO2on
Insect pests of Castor
Extension of oil sardine
fish
populations (>
50%)
to east-co
ast
(the co
lored lines indicate
percentage of All India oil sardine
production)
SST pattern
along the
Indian Coast
Data Source : ICOADS and
AVHRR data from
NOAA/NASA
Clim
ate
change
and Liv
esto
ck
June
1980
65 72 78 80
THI
Reference: Drawn on the basis of data of Hadley Centre U.K.
∆ ∆∆∆T June2020 With Respect to 1980
65 72 78 80
THI
System of Rice Intensification (SRI) Cultivation
Tra
ditiona
l Rice cultiva
tion
•Low seed rate 1 kg/ac
•Less than half the water required
•Crop duration reduced by one month (Nursery 8 days)
•Mostly managed with family labour
•No inorganic fertilizers (weeds are plowed back)
•Yield doubles
•Cost of cultivation reduced (low seed + low labour + no fertilizer)
•Scope for area/ crop diversification Yield doubles
Eco
fri
endly
managem
ent
CRID
A
•R
educe
s th
e nutr
ient lo
ss to the
atm
osp
her
e
•Pro
longed
nutr
ient availability
•Enhance
s fe
rtiliz
er u
se e
ffic
iency
•Sust
enance
of so
il q
uality
Conjunctive use of Inorganic and Organic Nutrients for greater stability
Integrated Nutrient Management
Bio
fert
iliz
ers pla
y a
vital ro
le
Rhizobium
Azospirillum
Azotobacter
Azolla
BGA
Eco
fri
endly
managem
ent
CRID
A
In-situ moisture conservation and water harvesting
Vegetative barrier
Percolation tank
Farm
pond
Conservation furrows
Prosopisjuliflora
has wide
adap
tation to w
ater stress an
d
drought co
nditions
Used as so
urce
material for
drought tolerant gen
esC
ontr
ol
36 d
ays of w
ate
r
withdra
wal
Gen
etic
Shie
ld a
gain
st a
dver
se c
hanges
in p
reci
pitation
Preparing for clim
ate ch
ange
Crop M
ixture-NutriMillets, Pulses and O
ilseed
Enla
rgin
g the
Food B
ask
et
Clim
ate Management (Value added agro advisory service)
�Short, Medium and Long range of weather forecasts has
to be converted to location and farm
ing systems specific
action plans
Inform
ation Technology in
•Quan
titative assessmen
t of specific crop responses at different crop stages to
enhan
ced lev
els of GHG, precipitation and U
V-B
rad
iation.
•Breed
ing agricu
ltural crops for tolerance to high tem
peratures.
•New
area that is mad
e av
ailable for ag
ricu
lture is to be properly categ
orized
and m
apped
to avoid chan
ces of in appropriate land-use choices.
•Probab
ilities of occurren
ce o
f ex
trem
e weather even
ts (droughts &
floods)
and their im
pacts on plant growth.
•The
impacts of
elev
ated
CO2 on plant
soil-w
ater balan
ces
and the
corresponding crop growth should be linked
.
•W
ater b
alan
ce for drought or flood p
rone regions in d
ifferent parts o
f the
world for ch
anging climatic conditions.
•The quality of global m
odeling projections is further improved
with suitab
le
modifications in the global circu
lation m
odels.
•The datab
ases for all the param
eters need to be strengthen
ed.
Futu
re thru
sts
Thank you