21
AUHF 2015 Garden Court, Marine Parade, Durban (South Africa) October 26 – 28, 2015 HOUSING MARKET DYNAMICS IN AFRICA Issa FAYE AfDBM Research Department Africa’s rapid urbanization and increasing population growth has sharply increased the demand for affordable housing across the continent… 2 Source: Hofinet !Urbanization processes and housing dynamics are inter5related !Urban population growth and urbanization put pressure on institutional and resource capacities of urban authorities !Twin development process—‘formal’ and ‘informal’ settlements developing in parallel !Cities being built ‘back to front— building @irst and servicing afterwards, required infrastructure retro@itting Source: The Economist

2. Day 1 HMDA AUHF 2015 FINAL Durban copy · Gabon Equatorial Guinea Congo-Kinshasa Chad Cape Verde Burundi Botswana Angola Average!mortgage!interest!rates!in!Africa,!2015! Most!of!African!Large!Cities!are!unaffordable:!high!

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Page 1: 2. Day 1 HMDA AUHF 2015 FINAL Durban copy · Gabon Equatorial Guinea Congo-Kinshasa Chad Cape Verde Burundi Botswana Angola Average!mortgage!interest!rates!in!Africa,!2015! Most!of!African!Large!Cities!are!unaffordable:!high!

!!!

AUHF!2015!Garden!Court,!Marine!Parade,!Durban!(South!Africa)!

October!26!–!28,!2015!

HOUSING!MARKET!DYNAMICS!IN!AFRICA!!

Issa!FAYE!AfDBM!Research!Department!

!!

Africa’s!rapid!urbanization!and!increasing!population!growth!has!sharply!increased!the!demand!for!affordable!housing!across!the!continent…!

2

Source: Hofinet

! Urbanization*processes*and*housing*dynamics*are*inter5related*

! Urban*population*growth*and*urbanization*put*pressure*on*institutional*and*resource*capacities*of*urban*authorities*

! Twin*development*process—‘formal’*and*‘informal’*settlements*developing*in*parallel*

! Cities*being*built*‘back*to*front—*building*@irst*and*servicing*afterwards,*required*infrastructure*retro@itting*

Source: The Economist

Page 2: 2. Day 1 HMDA AUHF 2015 FINAL Durban copy · Gabon Equatorial Guinea Congo-Kinshasa Chad Cape Verde Burundi Botswana Angola Average!mortgage!interest!rates!in!Africa,!2015! Most!of!African!Large!Cities!are!unaffordable:!high!

…resulting!in!widespread!shortage!of!affordable!housing!supply!!in!Africa!

Kenya!(pop.!44.4mn)!Housing*backlog*of*2mn*units;*estimated*annual*de@icit*of*200K*units*

Cameroon!(pop.!25mn)!Housing*backlog*of*over*700k*units*

Angola!(pop.!21.5mn)!Housing*de@icit*of*over*1.9mn;*estimated*annual*shortage*of*100K*

Ivory!Coast!(pop.!20.3mn)!!Housing*backlog*of*over*700k*units*

Ethiopia!(pop.!94.1mn)!Estimated*de@icit*of*1mn*units;*100k*annual*shortage*

Nigeria!!(pop.!173.6mn)!Housing*backlog*of*17mn;*annual*shortage*of*700k*units*

South!Africa!(pop.!53mn)!Housing*de@icit*of*2.1mn*units;*an*estimated*1.5mn*households*live*in*slums*

Morocco!(pop.!33.01mn)!Housing*de@icit*of*800k*units,*growing*178K*p.a.*

Uganda!(pop.!37.6mn)!Estimated*annual*housing*de@icit*of*233k*units*

Source:(CAHF,(UN0Habitat,(National(Sources(!

This!lack!of!affordable!supply!has!translated!to!the!growth!of!informal!settlements!

4

•  Over*200*million*Africans*live*in*slums*•  Cities*accommodate*72%*of*slum*dwellers*across*Africa*The!housing!issues!should!be!looked!at!under!the!broader!perspective!of!urbanization!Data(sources:(UN0Habitat(

Page 3: 2. Day 1 HMDA AUHF 2015 FINAL Durban copy · Gabon Equatorial Guinea Congo-Kinshasa Chad Cape Verde Burundi Botswana Angola Average!mortgage!interest!rates!in!Africa,!2015! Most!of!African!Large!Cities!are!unaffordable:!high!

Four!main!issues!to!deal!with!to!address!the!shortage!of!affordable!housing!^inance!on!the!continent!!

5

Major*constraints*to*providing*affordable*housing*at*scale:*

Lack!of!access!to!^inance!for*poor*and*lower5middle5income*families,*as*well*as*real*estate*developers*

Unsecured!land!tenure!and!weak!land!governance!inhibits*the*active*participation*of*the*private*sector*

Rising!cost!of!construction!makes*it*dif@icult*to*build*homes*at*an*affordable*price*for*the*majority*of*households*

Inability!to!provide!infrastructure!and!lack!of!human!and!institutional!capacity!across*the*housing*delivery*value*chain*

CHALLENGES!&!OPPORTUNITIES!

HOUSING!FINANCE!

Page 4: 2. Day 1 HMDA AUHF 2015 FINAL Durban copy · Gabon Equatorial Guinea Congo-Kinshasa Chad Cape Verde Burundi Botswana Angola Average!mortgage!interest!rates!in!Africa,!2015! Most!of!African!Large!Cities!are!unaffordable:!high!

Underdeveloped!^inancial!markets!(1)!

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

CEMAC* WAEMU** Angola bostwana Zambia Nigeria Tanzania Namibia Uganda Ghana Kenya South Africa

Morocco

African!Bond!Market!size!as!%!of!GDP!

Low!Level!of!Intermediation!!  Credit*to*the*economy*/*GDP*still*low:*18%*!Lack!of!LongMterm!Finance!and!Inadequate!Instruments!!  Lack*of*equity*for*developers*!  Untapped*contractual*savings*industry–*Pension*Funds*and*insurance**companies,*etc.*!  Inadequate*instruments*:lack*of*secondary*markets;*few*mortgage*re@inancing*facilities*(WAEMU,*Tanzania,*Nigeria,*Algeria,*Egypt),*shallow*capital*markets*including*bond*markets*(highly*driven*by*treasury*bills)*

Source:(African(Market(Initiative(*(CONSUMAF((cumulative(issues(200702001)(**CREPMEF((market(capitalization)(

Underdeveloped!^inancial!markets!(2):!Mortgage!markets!quasiMinexistent!

Page 5: 2. Day 1 HMDA AUHF 2015 FINAL Durban copy · Gabon Equatorial Guinea Congo-Kinshasa Chad Cape Verde Burundi Botswana Angola Average!mortgage!interest!rates!in!Africa,!2015! Most!of!African!Large!Cities!are!unaffordable:!high!

Underdeveloped!^inancial!markets!(3):!!Low!mortgage!penetration!rates!

9

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Namibia RSA 0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

Residential!Mortgage!Loans!outstanding!as!%!GDP**

Source:(AfDB,(World(Bank!

Unmet!Demand!of!Residential!Real!Estate!Loans!in!SSA!

Source:!IIF!

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

11Q4 12Q2 12Q4 13Q2 13Q4 14Q2 14Q4

Supply of Residential Credit Demand for Residential Loans

Diffusion index (50=neutral)

Page 6: 2. Day 1 HMDA AUHF 2015 FINAL Durban copy · Gabon Equatorial Guinea Congo-Kinshasa Chad Cape Verde Burundi Botswana Angola Average!mortgage!interest!rates!in!Africa,!2015! Most!of!African!Large!Cities!are!unaffordable:!high!

Affordability!Issue:!double!digits!interest!rates!deter!borrowers!

Source:!Author’s observation, BCEAO, CAHF, Numbeo !

18.80% 15.80%

19.50% 7.46%

9.13% 14.80%

13% 11%

19% 9.24%

20.60% 12.50%

11% 18%

18.89% 9.10%

10.50% 20.50%

5.83% 8.40% 8.75%

42.33% 18.50%

6.88% 13.49%

11.50% 15.71%

9.18% 24.83%

20% 14%

9.50% 18%

10.02% 11%

7.30% 19.75%

15% 5%

15% 5%

8.50% 10.33%

6.73% 10.88%

8.47% 11.75%

4.58%

Zimbabwe

Uganda

Togo

Swaziland

South Sudan

Sierra Leone

Senegal

Nigeria

Namibia

Morocco

Mali

Madagascar

Liberia

Kenya

Ghana

Gabon

Equatorial Guinea

Djibouti

Congo-Kinshasa

Chad

Cape Verde

Burundi

Botswana

Angola

Average!mortgage!interest!rates!in!Africa,!2015!

Most!of!African!Large!Cities!are!unaffordable:!high!risk!&!information!asymmetries,!inadequate!legal!framework;!high!costMto!service!customers;!high!interest!rates,!in^lation!

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Alg

eria

Egyp

t

Mor

occo

Tuni

sia

Cam

eroo

n

Cen

tral A

fric

a Re

p.

Cha

d

Con

go-B

razz

avill

e

Mal

i

Beni

n

Nig

er

Burk

ina

Faso

Gam

bia

Sene

gal

Gui

nea

Gha

na

Nig

eria

Cot

e d’

Ivoi

re

Keny

a

Ethi

opia

Buru

ndi

Djib

outi

Com

oros

Tanz

ania

Mal

awi

Moz

ambi

que

Zam

bia

North Africa Central Africa West Africa East Africa Southern Africa

40 sq m hse

80 sq m hse

House!Price!to!Income!Ratio!in!Africa,!2015!

Page 7: 2. Day 1 HMDA AUHF 2015 FINAL Durban copy · Gabon Equatorial Guinea Congo-Kinshasa Chad Cape Verde Burundi Botswana Angola Average!mortgage!interest!rates!in!Africa,!2015! Most!of!African!Large!Cities!are!unaffordable:!high!

Opportunities!for!Developing!Housing!Finance!Markets!(1):!A!different!way!of!Doing!Business!

• Prior*savings*(credit*history,*income*proxy)*

•  Independent*check*of*stated*income,*e.g.*periodic*surveys*

• KYC*rule,*lending*to*existing*customers*•  Lower*Loan5To5Values*&*Debt5To5Incomes*limits,*some*repayment*@lexibility**

• Credit*Information*systems*

Reducing!Risk!&!uncertainties:!

!Prudent!lending!practices

• Develop*capital*markets • Develop*Mortgage*Re@inancing*Facilities*(CRRH5UEOMA,*Nigeria,*Algeria,*Egypt,*Tanzania,*Ghana*mortgage*re@inancing*schemes)

•  Linkage*with*the*opening*of*pension*systems*to*the*informal*sector*(Kenya,*Côte*d’Ivoire)*

• Equity*for*developers*• Building/strengthening*capacity*of*local*developers*

Missing!Links

Opportunities!for!Developing!Housing!Finance!Markets!(1):!how!to!go!down!market!while!covering!the!informal!sector!(i.e.!irregular!incomes!and!unstable!cash!^lows)?!!

"  Alternative!Security:!!#  Equitable*mortgage,*deposit*of*title*certi@icate*with*the*lender,**#  promissory*mortgage*liens*#  lien*on*pension*fund*accounts,*within*limits*(Kenya,*RSA)*#  Personal*guarantees,*pledged*savings,*salaries*payroll*deduction*

"  Mortgage!Insurance!&!Guarantee!Schemes:!rare!cases!#  RSA,*Kenya*(self5insurance)*–*Failure*ex.*(Mali),*or*pilots*with*no*follow5ups*(*Caisses*Populaire*du*Burkina)**

#  Best*practice:*Moroccco*Damane*Assakane*#  Many*markets*still*not*mature*enough**

*

Page 8: 2. Day 1 HMDA AUHF 2015 FINAL Durban copy · Gabon Equatorial Guinea Congo-Kinshasa Chad Cape Verde Burundi Botswana Angola Average!mortgage!interest!rates!in!Africa,!2015! Most!of!African!Large!Cities!are!unaffordable:!high!

Opportunities!for!Developing!Housing!Finance!Markets!(2):!How!to!go!down!market!while!covering!the!informal!sector!(i.e.!irregular!incomes!and!unstable!cash!^lows)?!!!

Lowering!the!frontier:!some!promising!models!!"  Combination!of!housing!cooperatives!/!banks!

#  Tripartite*arrangements*Banque*de*l’Habitat*du*Sénégal*/cooperatives*/land*or*building*developer**

#  Kenya*NACHU:*savings*&*credit*mobilization*for*cooperatives**"  Financing!the!Informal:!Some!Feasibility!evidence!experiences!

#  India:*several*specialized*lenders*active*in*this*segment*–*best*practice:*GRUH*Finance,*very*performant*(NPLs:*1,5%)*

#  Morocco*FOGARIM*guarantee*scheme*5*10*year*experience,*20%*market*share*#  Colombia:*Fondo*Nacional*de*Garantia*–*provident*fund*and*housing*lender,*open*to*informal*HH*since*2007**

"  Support!the!development!of!housing!micro^inance!products!#  Support*development*of*savings5linked*HMF*products*(Indonesia)*#  Provide*technical*assistance*to*lenders*and*borrowers*such*as*CEMEX’s*Patrimonio*

Hoy*in*Mexico,*Lafarge’s*HMF*program*(e.g.*capacity*building*for*MFI*staff,*design*speci@ications,*bills*of*quantities,*etc.)*

#  Home*improvement*subsidies*for*self5construction;*improved*targeting*mechanism*needed

Opportunities!for!Developing!Housing!Finance!Markets!(3):!Complementarity!of!public!and!private!actions!needed!!

"  Develop!municipal!bond!markets!#  Develop*cities*as*credit*worthy*borrowers*(Dakar)*#  Expand*skill*sets,*training*and*capacity*building*to*local*governments*#  Credit*enhancement*critical*as*it*increases*lenders*perceived*security**

"  Fiscal!decentralization!for!local!governments!to!help!fund!urbanization!e.g.!collection!of!!certain!taxes!(licensing!fees,!property!taxes,!etc.)!

"  Land!Value!Capture!as!a!Funding!Source!For!Urban!Investments!!"  Promote!contractual!savings!industry!as!well!as!private!equity!investments!for!longMterm!infrastructure!^inance!

"  Diaspora!savings!and!remittances!remain!an!untapped!resource!!"  Support!construction!^inance!facilities!for!small!scale!developers!and!contractors!e.g.!NURCHA!in!South!Africa,!IFCMCITIC!investment!platform,!etc.!

Page 9: 2. Day 1 HMDA AUHF 2015 FINAL Durban copy · Gabon Equatorial Guinea Congo-Kinshasa Chad Cape Verde Burundi Botswana Angola Average!mortgage!interest!rates!in!Africa,!2015! Most!of!African!Large!Cities!are!unaffordable:!high!

Leverage REIT!structure!to!attract!private!sector!capital!for!Rental!Housing!(For!illustrative!purposes!only)!

SHAREHOLDERS(Pension funds, insurance firms, IFIs, DFIs, private

investors)

AFFORDABLE HOUSING REIT LTD

Distribution in the form of dividend

Investment for an equity stake in residential assets

SPONSOR (AfDB, IFC,

etc.)

REIT MANAGER

Wholly or partly owned

Management services

Management fees

TRUSTEE

Trustee fees

Acts on behalf of shareholders

RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES

Ownership of residential assetNet property income

Construction of 4,000-units housing development

Acquisition of 120-units multifamily housing

Purchase of affordable mortgage portfolios

CHALLENGES!&!OPPORTUNITIES!

LAND!&!INFRASTRUCTURE!

Page 10: 2. Day 1 HMDA AUHF 2015 FINAL Durban copy · Gabon Equatorial Guinea Congo-Kinshasa Chad Cape Verde Burundi Botswana Angola Average!mortgage!interest!rates!in!Africa,!2015! Most!of!African!Large!Cities!are!unaffordable:!high!

Financing!Land!&!Infrastructure!for!Housing:!a!challenge!

Estimated Infrastructure needs as % of GDP

Infrastructure spending as % of GDP

!

M!Urban!infrastructure!competes!with!huge!global!infrastructure!needs!in!SSA!(15%!GDP/!year,!only!half!of!which!is!satis^ied)!M!Financing!land!and!its!equipment!is!challenging!!

(Source:(World(Bank(

*

Low!density!urban!expansion!comes!at!a!cost!for!urbanization!

$  Implications!of!urban!sprawl!include:!!!  High*cost*of*“retro@itting”*infrastructure*and*services**

!  Poor*transport*connections*between*residential*areas*and*city*centers/places*of*employment*

!  Environmental*damage*!  Accelerated*loss*of*agricultural*land*

Much!of!Africa’s!urban!expansion!is!occurring!through!unplanned!and!lowMdensity!consumption!of!rural!land!at!a!rapid!pace!

Page 11: 2. Day 1 HMDA AUHF 2015 FINAL Durban copy · Gabon Equatorial Guinea Congo-Kinshasa Chad Cape Verde Burundi Botswana Angola Average!mortgage!interest!rates!in!Africa,!2015! Most!of!African!Large!Cities!are!unaffordable:!high!

Divided!Cities:!Multiple!land!tenure!regimes!

"  A*majority*of*urban*residents*are*unable*to*access*or*afford*land*or*housing*in*the*formal*sector*

"  On*average,*only*around*10%*of*land*is*formally*registered*to*individuals*as*private*property**

% Diminishes*security*of*land*rights*of*housing*consumers*due*to*lack*of*clear*land*rights*% Crowd*out*private*investors*from*housing*% Complicates*land*assembly*for*new*housing*projects.*Clear*challenge*for*urbanization*% Contributes*to*rising*housing*prices,*as*formal*land*supply*is*constrained**

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Full*security**

Degree!of!tenure!security**

No*security**

Zero*legality** Degree!of!legality** Full*legality**

Pavement*dweller**

Squatter*regularized*and*unregularized**

Tenant*with*contract**

Leaseholder**

Freeholder**

Distinguish!de(jure(and!de(facto(tenure:!there!is!more!than!1!legally!acceptable!system!!

Source:*Geoffrey!Payne,!2001*

The!land!titling!debate:!Which!tenure!regime!to!support?!(1)!

Continuum!of!Tenure!Categories!!

Page 12: 2. Day 1 HMDA AUHF 2015 FINAL Durban copy · Gabon Equatorial Guinea Congo-Kinshasa Chad Cape Verde Burundi Botswana Angola Average!mortgage!interest!rates!in!Africa,!2015! Most!of!African!Large!Cities!are!unaffordable:!high!

Source:(UN0Habitat,(2012(*

The!land!titling!debate:!Which!tenure!regime!to!support?!(2)!

Continuum!of!Tenure!Categories!!

Registered individual freehold may not be necessary to provide adequate security

The!land!titling!debate:!Which!tenure!regime!to!support?!(3)!

Formal!land!titles!are!an!absolute!preMcondition!if!

largeMscale!housing!provision!is!to!

occur!!!

There!are!alternatives!to!formal!land!titles!that!are!cheaper!and!easier!to!implement!

Are!formal!(i.e.!registered)!and!individual!land!titles!needed!as!a!preMcondition!for!largeMscale!housing!provision?!

Page 13: 2. Day 1 HMDA AUHF 2015 FINAL Durban copy · Gabon Equatorial Guinea Congo-Kinshasa Chad Cape Verde Burundi Botswana Angola Average!mortgage!interest!rates!in!Africa,!2015! Most!of!African!Large!Cities!are!unaffordable:!high!

Making!the!Legal!and!Regulatory!Framework!related!to!Land!Issues!right:!Strong!Governments!and!Institutions!needed!

$ Three!main!priorities!related!land!supply!for!housing:!!!% Reforming!the!land!administration!and!allocation!systems!*******Improving*land*rights*delivery*system,*including*land*formalization*and**********making*land*available*to*buyers*or*allottees*at*scale********!!!!!!!!!!%  !!Resolve!the!contradictions!between!customary!and!statutory!tenure!forms:!!Traditional*systems*of*land*delivery*are*now*generally*being*integrated*into*land*markets**Most*common*state*response*to*customary*authorities*is*a*progressive*integration*and*subordination*of*customary*systems*within*the*statutory*land*market*structure***

% Making!land!and!property!rights!enforceable!!

Land!Policy!reforms!should!be!part!of!a!broader!urbanization!plan!

$  Decentralization:!Link!urban!planning!to!regional!and!local!plans!%  Mapping*of*available*land*at*municipal*level*(well*functioning*cadaster)*%  Acquisition*of*land*for*relocation*of*existing*populations,*reservation*of*easements*and*development*of*the*physical*infrastructure*necessary*for*faster*development*in*these*areas*(AUC5ECA5AfDB*2010).*

%  Putting*the*necessary*conditions*to*foster*Land*value*capture**

$  Liberating!land!for!housing!and!infrastructure:!%  Vacant/idle*land*tax*%  Pre5emption*rights/right*of*@irst*refusal*with*land*sales*%  Land*readjustment*

$  Guided!Land!Development!(GLD)!%  Planning*of*peri5urban*areas*through*the*installation*of*physical*infrastructure*in!advance!of!settlement*development,*followed*by*servicing**

%  GLD,*a*@lexible*planning*approach*and*a*way*to*create*new*land*for*housing,*involving*multiple*stakeholders—including*also*customary*landowners,*where*needed.**

*

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CHALLENGES!&!OPPORTUNITIES!

CONSTRUCTION!COST!

The!Cost!of!Construction!Doubled!within!8!Years

Source:(AECOM,(AFRICA(PROPERTY(AND(CONSTRUCTION(HANDBOOK(2013(

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Rising!cost!per!square!meter!for!an!average!detached!!house!(brick,!block,!or!timber!frame)!signi^icantly!impacts!housing!affordability!for!lowMincome!families

Source:(AfDB,(World(Bank((

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

1000.00

Price!/!sq!m!for!an!average!detached!house!(Brick,!block,!or!timber!frame)!

Due!to!rising!construction!cost,!only!an!estimated!15.7!million!households,!or!6.7!percent!of!all!African!households!can!afford!an!entryMlevel!home!supplied!by!the!formal!market!with!prices!usually!starting!at!USD!28,000

Source:(AfDB,(World(Bank((

0*

5000*

10000*

15000*

20000*

25000*

30000*

35000*

40000*

Price!of!40!m2!house!(USD)!

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Formal!Housing!Construction!Costs:!The!case!of!Kenya!–!Construction!materials!and!Infrastructure!are!driving!the!costs!

*****

•  Infrastructure*cost*can*account*for*over*20%*of*the*construction*costs*for*affordable*housing*projects**

*•  40%*of*the*cost*of*a*housing*project*relies*on*the*cost*of*construction*materials*

*

Contingences!5%!!!

Finance!charges!5%!

!Professional!

fees!10%!

Land!10%!

Infrastructure!10%!

Direct!Building!cost!

60%!

Labour!!30%!!

*Material!70%!

***

Source:(AfDB(

A!GovernmentMled!Site!&!Service!Scheme!to!Reduce!Construction!Costs:!LEM!Project!in!Ivory!Coast!(!illustration!on!how!to!leverage!PPPs)!

•  Subscribers*to*the*program*to*build*60,000*affordable*housing:*60%*are*not*"bankable"*(informal*job*or*income*too*low)*

•  "Plan*B"*had*to*be*designed*by*the*Ministry*of*Construction*to*present*a*suitable*housing*product**

•  Sale*of*land*with*basic*services**at*subsidized*cost*•  Pre5approved*architectural*design*•  De@ined*urban*project,*providing*necessary*infrastructures*and*amenities*•  Ability*to*carry*out*self5build*project*•  Supervision*of*works*by*a*contractor**•  Obligation*to*ful@ill*the*the*project*in*a*limited*time*(2*years)*

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Encourage!the!Use!of!Local!Materials!and!Alternative!Building!Technologies!(ABTs)!

%  Use!of!ABTs!is!one!way!to!address!the!conventional!brick!and!mortar!process!of!housing!construction,!especially!cost!and!time!

%  High!constructions!costs:!Imports!of!materials,!especially!of!^inishing!products.!

!

•  The!use!of!expanded!polystyrene!panels!in!prefabricated!homes!in!Kenya!

•  Starting!price!is!US$14,000!(KES!1.25mn)!

•  Example!of!“red!brick”!project!in!Abuja,!Nigeria!

•  2!bedroom!apartment!starting!from12mn!Naira!(US$!62,000)!

!!Source:(Urban(Shelter(

Local!Production!of!Alternative/Building!Materials:!How!to!make!it!sustainable?!

%  Sustainable!local!production!of!building!materials:!Industrialization*approach*

%  Harnessing!economies!of!scale!through!regional!integration.!Need*common*policies,*standardized*building*codes*and*methods*adapted*to*local*circumstances*and*realities.**

%  Scale!Production:!lower!cost!of!alternative/!building!materials!

%  Financing!Mechanism:!PPP*approach*with*Government*to*provide*the*right*incentives*for*private*sector*to*invest*in*new*industries*

!

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Local!Production!of!Alternative/Building!Materials:!how!to!make!it!sustainable?!Crowding!in!the!Private!Sector!

%  The!Ethiopian!case:!% Construction!materials,!including!cement!should!be!produced!locally,!wherever!possible.!In*the*past,*only*government*factories*could*produce*cement*% Estimated*production*capacity*2*million*tons/yr*insuf@icient*to*meet*demand*(~7*million*tons/yr)*

% Price*of*cement*US$*249*5*299*per*ton**% Following!privatization:**

%  11*cement*factories*operate*in*the*country*today,*with*a*combined*capacity*of*over*13*million*tons*

% Led*to*a*sharp*decline*in*cement*prices*by*over*50%*(today,*a*ton*of*cement*cost*between*US$*110*and*124)*

% As*a*result*of*lower*cement*cost,*the*overall*cost*of*construction*has*reduced*by*about*5%!

!

SOME!KEY!MESSAGES!

ROLE!OF!DEVELOPMENT!FINANCE!INSTITUTIONS/MDBs!

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Key!Messages:!Challenges!

%  Housing!Financing!Problem:!Not*only*a*@inancial*engineering*issue.*The*value*chain*dimension*is*key:*%  Multiple*tenure*regime/*Insecurity*of*tenure*%  Lots*of*pressure*on*available*@inancing*for*infrastructure*%  Inappropriate*legal*and*regulatory*framework*%  Inadequate*urbanization*plan/Weak*institutions/*Lack*of*capacity*&*skills*%  High*construction*costs:*Imports*of*building*materials,*infrastructure*costs*very*high*

%  Financial!systems!are!underdeveloped!or!shallow!%  Low*level*of*@inancial*intermediation*%  Lack*of*long5term*@inancing*and*adequate*instruments*%  Lack*of*adequate*underwriting*processes*%  Lack*of*equity*for*developers*%  Lack*of*primary*and*secondary*mortgage*markets*%  Inexistent*capital*markets*and*untapped*contractual*savings*industry*

%  Housing!in!most!of!African!large!cities!is!unaffordable!%  High*interest*rates*(double*digit)*%  High*price*to*income*ratios*%  Collateral*request*

%  Housing!Markets!is!segmented:!Housing*issue*more*acute*for*Low5income*group*and*the*informal*sector.**%  Signi@icant*gap*market/affordable*market*underserved*%  Bottom*of*the*pyramid*non*served*

%  Widespread!shortage!of!affordable!housing!supply

Key!Messages!(1):!Opportunities!

%  Banks!need!a!new!way!of!doing!business:!prudent*lending*practices*and*innovative*instruments*to*derisk*transactions*required.*Adapting*the*@inancial*infrastructure*and*engineering*to*respond*to*a*risky*environment*

%  Financial!sector!development!agenda!to!be!promoted:!go*beyond*the*banking*sector*to*develop*NBFI*(capital*markets,*HFCs,*MFIs*for*incremental*housing*and*slum*upgrading,*Housing*Re@inancing*Facilities,*guarantee*schemes,*dedicated*private*Equity,*REIT,*etc);*attract*the*contractual*savings*industry*(pension*funds,*SWFs,*insurance)*

%  Mechanisms!to!^inance!affordable!housing:!Go*down*market*for*a*greater*developmental*impacts:*PPP*approach*would*be*most*valuable*with*an*activist**Government*providing*subsidies*and*right*incentives*to*attract*the*private*sector*facilitate*its*ability*to*derisk*the*transactions.*For*the*poorest*of*the*poor,*some*public*social*housing*programs*would*be*more*appropriate*

%  Getting!the!land!Tenure!issues!right!%  Improving*land*Governance*and*security*of*tenure*%  Streamline*property*registration*procedures*and*processes*for*resolution*of*contract*disputes**%  Making*land*and*property*rights*enforceable*%  Reconcile*customary*and*statutory*tenure*regimes:*Traditional*systems*of*land*delivery*are*now*

generally*being*integrated*into*land*markets**

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Key!Messages!(2):!Opportunities!

%  Land!reforms!should!be!part!of!broader!urbanization!plan!%  Planning*of*peri5urban*areas*through*the*installation*of*physical*infrastructure*in*

advance*of*settlement*development,*followed*by*servicing**%  Fiscal*decentralization*to*mobilize*resources*to*@inance*infrastructure*%  Promote*land*value*capture*for*the*bene@it*of*urbanization*and*housing*infrastructure*%  Liberating/reserving*land*for*housing/infrastructure.*Going*back*to*Sites*and*services*

%  Densi^ication!will!reduce!urban!sprawl!and!the!costs!of!urban!infrastructure!%  Development*of*rental*market*

%  Promotion!of!local!production!of!alternative/building!materials:!bring*construction*costs*down*

%  Local!production!of!building!materials:!a*source*of*industrialization*and*jobs*creation.*Possibility*to*crowd*in*private*sector*

%  Regional!integration!to!be!harnessed!for!a!sustainable!production!of!alternative/building!materials!at!scale!

%  PPPs!throughout!the!housing!value!chain!are!necessary!for!massive!housing!production!

%  Any!program!in!support!of!the!housing!value!chain!should!involve:!%  all!stakeholders!%  Financing!and!nonM^inancing!elements!(technical*assistance*and*advisory*services*in*capacity*building,*skills*upgrading,*institution*building,*governance,*etc)

Development!Finance!Institutions!Roles!(1)!

"  Development!Policy!Operations/programs!(concessional!lending)!to!support!Governments!Reforms!and!actions!in!Housing!delivery:!

!  Reforming!land!tenure!systems!including!legal!and!regulatory!frameworks!!  Promote!good!governance!and!digitized!land!registration!systems!!  Resource!mobilization!at!central!and!local!level!to!^inance!infrastructure!and!

urbanization!!  Putting!housing!at!the!center!of!urbanization!strategies!and!plan!!  Infrastructure!development!!  Promote!Industrialization!through!local!production!of!alternative/building!

materials!(tax!exemptions,!seed!provision!of!capital,!set!up!incubators,!etc.)!!  Improvement!of!the!investment!climate,!including!enforcing!property!rights!!!  Ensure!competition!in!the!industries!supplying!building!materials!(e.g!

privatization)!!  Social!housing!programs!!!  Fiscal!Decentralization!and!empowering!municipalities!and!local!governments!

for!better!land!administration!and!infrastructure!building!!

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Development!Finance!Institutions!Roles!(2)!

"  Catalytic!Role!to!Crowd!in!Private!Sector:!A!Housing!Finance!Facility!to!be!put!in!place!!  Credit!enhancement/guarantee!schemes!to*derisk*transactions*involving*individual*

in*the*informal*sector*or*without*regular*incomes*!  Equity!and!longMterm!debt!to*support*the*development*of*the*mortgage*market*

through*Banks,*HFCs,*HMFs,*Re@inancing*facilities*!  Equity!for!Developers!and!Industries!supplying*local*building*materials*!  Issuance!of!housing!bonds!to*develop*capital*markets*and*attract*the*contractual*

savings*industry*"  Technical!Assistance!and!Advisory!Services:!

!  Build!capacity!and!skills!for!developers!to!enable!them!to!build!at!scale!!  Build!capacities!at!central!and!municipality!level!(tax!administration,!cadaster,!

land!governance,!building!codes!and!standards,!etc)!!  Build!institutions!(modernize!administrative!systems,!computerize/digitize!land!

registration!systems,!provide!necessary!tools!and!equipment!for!a!better!management!of!land!and!infrastructure)!

!  Revamp!Urbanization!strategies!and!planning!!  Create!housing!related!databases!and!indices!to!provide!information!on!the!

housing!market!to!bene^it!of!customers!and!investors!!  Financial!literacy!programs!for!housing!customers!

Thank!You!!!

[email protected]!www.afdb.org!