1973-12-03 Central Intelligence Bulletin: Arab States-Israel

7/29/2019 1973-12-03 Central Intelligence Bulletin: Arab States-Israel

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APPROVED FORRELEASE:10-May-2011

Central Intelligence Bulletin

c 2043 December 1973


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ARAB STATES - ISRAEL: Efforts to reopen theEgyptian-Israeli talks continued over the weekend,while at the same time UN sources reported signsaround Ismailia of possible Egyptian preparationsfor renewed attacks. Cease-fire violations, however,dropped over the last two days and, with one excep-tion on the Syrian front, were generally minor.

UN observers reported unusually large movementsof Egyptian troops and equipment toward the Suezfront yesterday.|

In the past week, the Egyptians reporte yhave built two ponton bridges across the Suez Canalabout three miles north of Ismailia and two bridgesover the sweetwater canal west of the city.

Attemptsto contact the senior Egyptian liaison officer yes-terday were thwarted when UN officials were told hewas attending a large, hastily convened meeting inIsmailia.

Cairo newspapers continue to stress Egypt'sability and will to fight if Israel persists in"violating" international agreements, particularlythe six-point cease-fire accord. The semi-officialpaper Al Ahram warned that "Israel is mistaken tothink that there is an alternative to the resumptionof fighting in order to implement all provisionsof the cease-fire arrangements." Other paperswarned of renewed fighting if Israel continues onthe same path.

UNEF Commander Siilasvuo met late yesterday inCairo with Egyptian Minister of War Ismail afterconferring earlier in the day with Israeli DefenseMinister Dayan in Jerusalem to explore ways to re-open the disengagement talks broken off on 29 Novem-ber. Following the Jerusalem meeting, which Siilasvuotermed "useful," Dayan issued a statement expressing)3 Dec 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin


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*~~~~OPSEeR LIIIIjsrael's willingness to resume talks whenever Egypt- is ready. He noted that Israel's negotiator, GeneralYariv, would be prepared with "instructions from thegovernment and will be able to submit them to theEgyptians." No statement was issued after theSiilasvuo-Ismail talks.

Several cease-fire violations were reportedalong the Syrian and Egyptian fronts yesterday. Inthe most serious, Damascus claims to have destroyedan Israeli engineering unit, three tanks, a bulldozer,and an ammunition dump during a three to four-hourbattle. The Israelis contend that the clash wassparked when the Syrians fired on a tractor workingin an area very near the Israeli forward line. TheSyrians reportedly employed small arms, artillery,an d tank fire, as well as anti-tank missiles. AnIsraeli spokesman said that two Israeli soldiers werewounded, but they neither confirmed nor denied theSyrian claims.

Several probably related clashes occurred be-tween Israeli and fedayeen forces along the Lebaneseborder over the weekend, touched off by fedayeenshelling of an Israeli settlement and a militaryposition.

3 Dec ?73 Central Intelligerwe Bulletin 2


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JORDAN: Prospects for Jordan's participationin a Mide East peace conference have brightenedas a result of King Husayn's temporizing requestfor a "clarification" of the Palestinian representa-tion issue.

The King's expectations of representing WestBank residents as citizens of Jordan at the Genevapeace conference suffered a setback early in theweek when the Arab summit conference in Algiersignored his warning and designated the PalestineLiberation.Organization (PLO) as the sole interna-tional bargaining agent for Palestinian interests.This decision activated Husayn's threat to boycottthe peace conference, as he had the summit proceed-ings, but his position has now been modified.

In a speech to Jordan's National Assembly on1 December, Husayn:

-- laid primary emphasis on his standing require-ment that any Arab-Israeli settlement be a com-prehensive one jointly and simultaneously agreedto by all nations concerned, and include Israeliwithdrawal from all occupied Arab territories;he ruled out "withdrawal from any part," suchas the Sinai, "at the expense of any other part,"such as the West Bank of the Jordan.--reiterated his willingness to allow self-determination by West Bank residents "afterwe perform our duty of liberating the WestBank and Jerusalem" and, other Arab lands. Tothis end., he formally proposed a UN-administeredreferendum and pledged that whatever the outcome--a unified Jordan, a confederation, or separate.states--"we shall be their noble brothers."--withheld his decision on attending a Genevaconference, pending clarification from "brotherlyArab quarters" of his own responsibilities forthe restoration of. Palestinian lands and rights.Although he promised to "shoulder our respon-sibilities...in every international arena,"

3 Dec 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3


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he would not "compete with anybody" if Jordanwere excluded from representing Palestinianinterests.

Husayn's statements can be read as an appealto Egyptian President Sadat for reassurance that noseparate deals will be made with Israel at Jordan'sexpense and for some solution of the Palestinianrepresentation issue that would permit Jordan's ac-ceptance of a peace conference seat.

The US Embassy in Amman believes Husayn willdo his utmost to strike a direct bargain with the. PLO that will allow him to go to Geneva. A prominentWest Bank politician assured an embassy officershortly after Husayn made his speech that talks withthe PLO were already under way and were likely tosucceed.

3 DF



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USSR MIDDLE EAST: Moscow is displayingheightened concern over the Middle East situation,but appears to expect the current cease-fire tohold.

Pravda launched its toughest attack on Israelin several weeks last Friday, accusing Tel Aviv oftrying to pursue its pre-October course and ofplacing every possible obstacle in the way of apolitical settlement. The following day, Moscow -radio gave its tacit approval to Cairo's decisionto break off the talks at Kilometer 101 and warnedof a sharp increase in tensions caused by Israeliactivity. A Soviet official in Cairo, however, hasexpressed no special concern over the breakdown ofthe talks and has acknowledged that Soviet depend-ents are returnin to E t.

What is especially nettlesome to the USSR atthis juncture is the budding US-Egyptian relation-ship. Soviet officials in Cairo have questionedboth US visitors and the Egyptian Foreign Ministryabout relations between Cairo .and Washington.

In response to the Soviet demarches, and inan apparent effort to ensure that Egypt's majorsource of military equipment is not cut off at thiscritical juncture, the Egyptians are demonstratingovert gratitude and affection for the USSR. InFriday's Al Ahram, for example, influential editorHaykal term~ed the Soviet-Egyptian relationship"vital and irreplaceable for Arab peace." He wrotethat relations with the US s ould not be permittedto diminish the Soviet role.



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FOR THE RECORD*

Libya-Ecypt: Libya has closed its diplomaticoffice in Cairo and recalled its personnel. Thedecision was apparently taken several days ago,butwas not noted in the Cairo press until yesterday.There has been no indication that Egyptian diplomatshave been asked to leave or are being withdrawn fromTripoli. In what may be an effort at mediation,Syrian President Asad, according to press reports,has dispatched a cabinet minister to Tripoli witha message to President Qadhafi "dealing with safe-guarding unity in Arab ranks."

Romania: After an overnight stop at Algiers,Romanian President Ceausescu will arrive in the UStoday to begin a state visit. Ceaus.escu reportedlyinvited himself to Algeria at the last minute toexplain why Romania refused the Arabs' request tobreak relations with Israel. Ceausescu's emissariesreceived a "cool" reception during their recent tourof Arab capitals.

*These items were prepared by CIA without consuZta-tion with the Departments of State and Defense.


Documents

1973-12-03 Central Intelligence Bulletin: Arab States-Israel