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150 Himmelein RoadMedford, NJ 08055
609-714-0546
Agenda:• Capital Markets review and
investment outlook
First Quarter 2014
MFG Investments, LLCA Registered Investment Advisor
Securities Offered Through Securities Service Network, Inc. Member FINRA / SIPC
U.S. Economic Growth Remains Modest
Existing Home Sales and Prices Slow Down
1 U.S. Existing Home Sales shows the number of existing homes sold each month, expressed an annualized rate in millions. 2 U.S. Existing Home Sales Median Price Year-over-Year % Change shows the rate of change in the median home price (the point at which half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less) compared to the same month last year. Source: National Association of Realtors
Headline Inflation Remains Contained
Fed Sets Threshold for Potential Rate Increases
Unemployment Rate Continues to Decline
Earnings Decline Despite Rising Forecasts
Returns for Major U.S. Equity Indices
1Q14 1 YearS&P 500 1.81% 21.86%
Russell 2000 1.12% 24.90%NASDAQ 0.83% 30.18%
Dow Jones -0.72% 12.89%The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely traded stocks. Created by Standard & Poor’s, it is considered to represent the performance of the stock market in general.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded Blue Chip stocks, primarily industrials but including service oriented firms. Prepared and published by Dow Jones & Co., it is the oldest and most widely quoted of all the market indicators. The components, which change from time to time, represent between 15% and 20% of the market value of NYSE stock.
The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index (the 3,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies based on total market capitalization).
The NASDAQ Composite is a market-capitalization price only index that reflects the aggregate performance of domestic common stocks traded on the regular NASDAQ market, as well as national market system traded foreign common stocks and ADRsReturns shown are total returns, and thus include reinvested dividends. The indices are not investment products available for purchase.Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: FactSet
Earnings Yields vs. Bond Yields
1Yr Forward Earnings Yield: One year forward IBES stock earnings forecasts divided by the current stock price. Earnings yield is the inverse of P/E.
Interest Rates Step Back Some in Early 2014
Summary
The opinions expressed are those of LSA Portfolio Analytics and are no guarantee of future performance of any LSA Portfolio. This information is not intended to serve as investment advice; it is for educational purposes only.
•U.S. Economic Growth (GDP)– Moderate Growth, Not Robust Yet– Do Not Expect Another Recession
•Inflation– Contained Inflation is Most Likely Near Term– Risks of Higher Inflation Longer Term
•Fed Policy– Continued Near-Zero Interest Rate Target Likely Until 2015– Continued Tapering of Bond Buying Program, Most Likely Ending Fourth Quarter 2014
•Interest Rates– “Normalization” Underway--Near- and Long-Term Rates Trending Moderately Higher
•International– Mostly Muted Economic Growth and Low Inflation on a Global Basis
Looking Ahead
The opinions expressed are those of LSA Portfolio Analytics and are no guarantee of future performance of any LSA Portfolio. This information is not intended to serve as investment advice; it is for educational purposes only.
• Economic Outlook – Moderate Growth—Continued Subdued Improvement, Not Robust Yet
– Inflation Contained Now, Could Rise Later
– Normalization of Interest Rates--Near- and Long-Term Rates Trending Moderately Higher
• Market Outlook– Overweights: U.S. Large Cap Growth Stocks; Short- Dated High Yield Corporate Bonds; Non-Agency MBS; Commercial MBS;
ARMs; CMOs, ABS; U.K., Norwegian, Swedish, Spanish, and Belgian Bonds, including credit positions (low BBB, BB) and Puerto Rican Municipal Bonds
– Underweights: U.S. Nominal Treasuries, Agency Debt, Fixed-Rated Agency MBS, U.S. Large Cap Value Stocks
– Other Positioning: Due to our expectations surrounding continued normalization of interest rates higher, we have shortened duration within our bond portfolios
• Items to Watch– How weather affected U.S. Growth and Inflation, and how changes in those areas could affect Fed Monetary Policy
– Conflict in Crimea
– Corporate Earnings
– Middle East Tensions
– Strength of Chinese Economy