14 June 1974Volume 184, No. 4142

LETTERs Lost Opportunity?: B. Heinrich; Scaling in Ecology: R. Mitchell; R. M. May;Mr. Wonderfull's Surprize: K. Franklin; Landlubbing Admiral?:F. C. Whitinore, Jr.; B. C. Heezen; Research Chemicals: Supply and Demand:R. L. Katztnan: Telling Time: A. Porges...............................

EDITORIAL Will There Be Enough Food?: R. Revelie. ...............................

ARTICLES Recent Developments in the Analysis of Toxic Elements: D. J. Lisk. ............Mutant Genes in the Mexican Axolotl: G. M. Malacinski and A. J. Brothers.......Careers in Science and Engineering for Black Americans: A. Y. Wilh,,r,i..........

NEWS AND COMMENT

R6SEARCH NEWS

BOOK REVIEWS

The Sloan-Kettering Affair (11): An Uneasy Resolution ....................

European Community Energy Policy: Regulation or Mainly Information? ........

Uranium Enrichment: Both the Americans and Europeans Must Decide Whereto Get the Nuclear Fuel of the 1980's ..............................

Breast Cancer Research: Problems and Progress ...........................The Long and Short of Lasers (II): The Vacuum Ultraviolet ..................

H. G. J. Moseley, reviewed by W. A. Blanpied; Conformation in Fibrous Proteinsand Related Synthetic Polypeptides, S. Krimm; Surface Color Perception,D. Jameson; Books Received ....................................

REPORTS Kaolinite Synthesis at 25°C: J. D. Hem and C. J. Lind .........................

Spectroscopic Measurements of Stratospheric Nitric Oxide and Water Vapor:C. K. N. Patel, E. G. Burkhardt, C. A. Lambert ......................

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BOARD OF DIRECTORS LEONARD M. RIESER ROGER REYELLE MARGARET MEAD RICHARD II. BOLT EMILIO Q. DADDARIORetiring President, Chairman President President-Elect BARRY COMMONER EDWARD E. DAVID, JR.

CHAIRMEN AND MATHEMATICS (A) PHYSICS (B) CHEMISTRY (C) ASTRONOMY (D)John G. Kemeny SolomonAu.tBiubaum Milton Harris Ivan R. KingCRETRIE Truman A. Botts Rof VM. Sinclair Leo Schubert Arlo U. LendoltAAAS SECTIONSPSYCHOLOGY ¢I) SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SCIENCES (K) HISTORY AND PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE (L ENGINE N (N)ChirUsC GeorgeJ.Stigler OwenGingerich Byron 0. TapeAEdin P. tiollander Daniel Rich Georg Basalla PaulH. RobbinsEDUC (Q DENTISTRY (R) PHARMACEUTICAL SCIENCES (5 INFORMATI(SON AN COMMUNICTIN (T)J. Myo tinHwr N. Myer"oi P. Jeffrey Mri rebre

Philli R. FrdyceShalo PearnianLon AutlanJoehecr

DIVISIONS ALASKADIVISION PACIFIC DIVISIONWilliam E. Ds Irma Duncan Robert C. MIller Robert T. Orr Joseph A. Sbchufe Max P. DunChairman, Executive Committee Excutiveu Seeryrysurr P dent Exctve Offi e

SCIENCE Is ublIshed weel, sweptthe ls e In De , but wIth an afIra laonthle fouth Tusday In November, by the Amerias A clate for t Ad tof$SCIece 1516 -Mschust Ave.. NW.fWashngon DC. 200. New combined with hcnIftc othI. Seod-cass postage paid at Washington, D.C. Coht (0 1574 byethe AAmican Association for th: Aancemet of S Membe ras on request.Anal subsciption $40; foreign poct: Amecs $6, ovewas: $8, aki lift to Eu $20.Single copie $1 (back issue, $2) e00xcep amI" to Sc Ifc I et which is $4. SchoI year subcrlption: 9 m s $30;10 months $33.50 Provide.6 wees notice for cangoaddeofss, giving now and old aWdrss ad 0ipc .e a rent address label. Scln I Rade's G i tPeriodIca LIterature.

Acid Rain: A Serious Regional Environmental Problem: G. E. Likens andF. H. Bormann ............................................. 1176

A Greater Gondwanaland: A. R. Crawford ................................... 1179

Methane Formation in Living Trees: A Microbial Origin: J. G. Zeikus andJ. C. Ward ............................................... 1181

Lateral Phase Separation of Lipids in Plasma Membranes: Effect of Temperatureon the Mobility of Membrane Antigens: V. A. Petit and M. Edidin .............. 1183

Latent Ganglionic Infection with Herpes Simplex Virus Types 1 and 2: ViralReactivation in vivo after Neurectomy: M. A. Walz, R. W. Price, A. L. Notkins . 1185

Taurine Concentrations in Congestive Heart Failure: R. Huxtahle and R. Bressler . . . 1187

Thyroid Hormone Action: In vitro Demonstration of Putative Receptors in IsolatedNuclei and Soluble Nuclear Extracts: H. H. Samuels, J. S. Tsai, J. Casanova . . . . 1188

Leprosy: Confirmation in the Armadillo: J. Convit and M. E. Pinardi . ............... 1191

Perception of Letters in Words: Seek Not and Ye Shall Find: J. C. Johnston andJ. C. McClelland .. ......................... ................... 1192

Operant Conditioning of Single-Unit Response Patterns in Visual Cortex:P. G. Shinkman, C. J. Bruce, B. E. Pfingst .................................. 1194

Deposition of DDE and Polychlorinated Biphenyls in Dated Sediments of theSanta Barbara Basin: W. Hom et al ................................1197

Technical Comments: Curvature Detectors in Human Vision?: C. F. Stromeyer, III;L. A. Riggs; Eye-Tracking Patterns in Schizophrenia: J. R. Stevens;B. T. Troost, R. B. Darofl, L. F. Dell'Osso; P. S. Holzman et al .............1199

MEETINGS REPORTS Moscow Symposium on Radiation Chemistry of Aqueous Systems: R. H. Schuler;Forthcoming Events .. .......................................... 1204

PRODUCTS AND Graphics Tablets; Diagnostic Thermography; Digoxin Assay Kit; Orrery andMATERIALS Star Dome; Petri Dish Holder; Heating Stage; Microcalorimeter; Solid

Phase Digoxin RIA System; Hydrocarbon Monitor; Tissue Sieve; SpecificIon Electrodes; Literature ............................................ 1211

RUTH M. DAVIS CARYL P. HASKINS WILLIAM T. -OLDEN WILLIAM BEVANWARD H. GOODENOI.GH CHAUNCEY STARR Treasurer Extetdive Officer

.GEOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY (E) BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES (0) ANTHROPOLOGY (H)Tera L. Smiley Beatrice M. Sween4y Bernice KaplanRamon E. Bisqu Jane C. Kaltenbach Philleo Nash

~MEIQ91,M MSCIENCS( ACU(0); IN USTRIAL SCIENCE (P) COVER

SbalmJ. 0abrNdD1Bye ao trase0ATTI (U ATOSHEI AND0 YIRSIIRI GENERAL (X) Pigment mutants in the Mexican

aohnWxolotl. (Left) White (did); (center)EStGlsr ilan R. BeneeJJeP Cseellow albino (a/a, DID); and (right

dark, wild type (D/D). See pageCXA1142. [G. M. Malacinski, Indiana

- XiUniversity, Bloomington]

14 June 1974. Volume 184, Number 4

AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FORTHE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCEScience serves its readers as a foruiim for the

presentation and discussion of imiiportant issuesielated to the advancement of science. inClLudinethe presentation of minoritv ot- conflicting pointof view, rather than by publishing onliv imaterialon which a consensuLs has been reached. Accord-ingly, aill articles ptLblished in S ierice-includingoccitorials, news and comment. Mod book reviews-are signied and teflect the individual viess of theziauthois and not official points of x ci adcopted b!the AAASoi the institLitioll ' iith \\hichl thetiletho,at-e afliated.

Editorial Board1974

ALFRiED BROWN FL I\K WV. Pt I NAN1JANMES F. CROSN' NXIS\iN 1- SINtuAZSEYN10UR S. KE'I GO(I)toN WVOLMSANFR\NK PRIESS

1975HI:RBERT S. GUrOWsSKY DON \.l) LiNDSiLLN. BRUCE HANNAY (U-111 P\IRiCKDONNALD KENNEDY R,\)NlOND 1-. TitoNoiSONl)DAN11L E. KOSHLAND, JIi.

Editorial StaflEditor

PHILI' H. ABELSON

Poiblisaler Businte.vs Afalzate'rWILLIANt BEVAN HANS NussittuNiManaging Edlitor: ROBtERI V. ORNMESAssistant Editors: ELLEN E. MURPHY, JOHN E.

RtNoLEt

Asiitantts to thei 511dito)1 : N, Ni Ti 10SL'Ri \NS.PiIRtciS ROWSE

Netws atiii CLottinnt JOIIN WAELStt. 1 UI Itt J.CAtiJER, DEBORAH SHAPELY, ROtLERT GtLLiiL'E, NICHO-LAS WADE, CONSTANCE HOLDEN, BARBARA J. CULLITON,SCHERRAINE MIACK

Researcl News: ALLEN L. ISAN1\1tOND, WXILLIAt1I). Mlitz. TrtON1AS 11. MS1L\(I II, JEAN L. MIARX,AR'ItIUR l. ROBINSON, GiSA BARI KOLA'IA

BookC Rev'iew s: SYLV'IA LEii1ii\tti. KS-liltiNt- IVi-tN'('SIsiN, ANN O'BRIEN

Cuver Editor: GRAYCE F1-INtiAEditorial A ssistatits: MARGAIESI At.LI N. IS%BELLE

BOULDIN, ELEANORE Butiz, MAR\' DORI NIAN, JU)itiH(tIVELBi R. CORRINE HARRIS, NANc' HARINA(,tL, OLISL'RIIEATWSOLE, CtiRISTINE KARLIK, MARGARI I- LLOD, ERICPOGGtINPOHL, JEAN ROCKNwOOD, LEAH RS'AN, LoIsS(i NtIIr-, MICHAEL SCHWARIZ, RI HARD SLMIKLOSE, YALi SWtIGAR, ELEANOR WARNER

Gtiitle to ScieJtific( ln.itSrurrztenit: IICHARI) SOiMMiER

Alembiherslhip lRecr ititrite,tt: GWsENi)OLY'N HUDDLE.Stbscrirtiopti ReiZcurds antil AMembi/er lRecodIs: ANNIRA GiLA N D

Adlertising StalffDir-ector Prodtictitoi Mllania-crEARL J. SCHERAGO StI\IS(\REI' SFERiLING

Adi ertisinlg Sales iflariager: RICHARD L CHARIcSSalcs: NELV YORK. N.Y. 10036: Herbert L. BuikiLund,11 W. 42 St. (212-PE-6-1858); SCOICI PLAINS, N.J.07076: C. Richard Callis. 12 UJn.ami Lane (201-889-4873); CHICAGO. ILL. 60)611: Jalck Rxari, Room2107, 919 N. Michigan Ave. (312-DE-7-4973); BEr-ERLY HILLS, CALIF. 90211: Winn Nance. Ill N. LaCienega Blvd. (213-657-2772)

EDITORZIAL CORRESPONDENCE: 1515 Massa-chuLsetts Ave., NW, Washington. D.C. 20005. Phones:(At-ea code 202) Ceolti-al Office: 467-4350; Book Re-views: 467-4367; BuLsiness Office: 467-4411; Ciicula-tion: 467-4417; Guide to Scientific In tiuments: 467-4480; News and Comiimenlt: 467-4430; Reprints andPet-missions: 467-4483; Rteseat-ch Newvs: 467-4321.Reviewing: 467-4440. Cable: Advancesci. Washinlrton.Copies of "Instructions for Contr-ibtutors" can beobtained fromii the editorial oflice. See also page xs.Stientce, 29 Mlarch 1974. ADVERTISING CORRE-SPONDENCE: Roonm 1740, 11 WV. 42 St.. New York.N.Y. 10036. Plhone: 212-PE-6-1 858.

SCIENC:E4142

Will There Be Enough Food?The ancient prayer. "Give us this day otLir daily bread," may havedesperate Ulrgency for huLndreds of millions of human beings during

the next few years. World demand for cereals and plant proteins hasbecn soaring, in part becaulse of population growth in the poor COtLntriesanid partly becaulse of the use of beef in the rich countries as theirper capita incomles rise. World grain reserves have fallen to theirlowest level in two decades, equal to only abouLt 27 days stLpply. Atthe same time the rise in petroleum prices has created a worldwideshortage of nitrogen fertilizers and has greatly lessened the ability offarmers in the poor couLntries to pump water for irrigation.The United States, the leading supplier of food exports for the

rest of the world, has brought all its idle cropland into production;tnd with luck will produce a buLmper crop this year. BuLt most of our stur-plus will be sold to the other rich couLntries at prices the poor ones cannotafford, and food aid shipments are being severely reduced. Mankind maybe drawing closer to a precipice where mass starvation occurs wheneverdrought or plant disease restLlts in less-than-average crop production.How can we draw back from the precipice? An obviouls, diffiCUlt, but

in the long run absolutely essential, way is throuLgh reducing rates ofpopuLlation growth. SuLpplies can be increased by three lines of action:for the short term, a world food bank; for the longer term, a moderniza-tion of agricLllture in the poor couLntries; and finally, a sharp intensifica-tion of agricultuLral and food research.A world food bank shouLld have several components-stores of wheat

and other cereals and of soybeanis and other legumes; stores of fer-tilizers to enable crop produLction to be quickly expanded; reserves ofland which can be puLt under the plow in emergencies; a bank of infor-mationi and technology which canl be tLsed to increase crop yields; andstores of crop genes to enable seeds of new varieties to be qulickly multi-plied when the old varieties are stricken by pests or plant disease.The modernization of agriculture in the poor cotintries has been

shown to be technically feasible by the limited successes of the GreenRevolution. BuLt it requtires much more than technology. The farmersmtlst be able to buly the fertilizer, irrigation water, high-yielding seeds,plant protection, and knowledge necessary to increase their produLc-tion; and benefits they receive from selling crops must be enoughgreater than the cost of inptLts to provide incentives for increasedprodtlction. Transportation, storage facilities, markets, and profitableprices are all essential components of modernization, as are reformsin land tenuLre systems, greater opportunities for rLural employment, andnmechasnisms for transfer of technology to the farmer.The modernization of agriculture depends on contintling agriculttlral

rcsearch not only to produLce new disease-resistant crop varieties but toincrease the eflicienicy of water use, to find ways to combat soil deterio-ration and crosioni, and in the long rull to increase the efficiency of photo-synthetic conversion of solar energy to food eniergy, proteins, anid other1nLutrients that are acceptable conmponents of huLmani diets. EqLually impor-tant are research and development on1 improved methods of food storageand processing. plaint protection against pests and disease, and researchwhich wotlIld permit crop diversification and lead to improved diets.The United States has become the breadbasket of the world, in large

part becauLsc of sUccessfUl programs of research and application ofresearch resuLlts. American- agricultural researchers need to face aneven greater fUtllre task to tise their methods and their insights tomake possible a vast increase in food and fiber production throughoutthe world. In mceting this challenge they need reinforcement from theentire scienitific comminilnity.- ROGER REVELLE