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http://www.afa.com.eg/uploads/papers/2011/files/120108130843_4_fifa_presentation.pdf
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April 11-13, 2011
Cairo Marriott Hotel, Egypt
Australian Fertilizers Prospects ad Issues
Mr. Nick Drew Executive Manager, FIFA
Australia
5/2/2011
1
AustraliaNick Drew
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
Executive Manager
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
5/2/2011
2
Size and Value 2002-2010
• 4 to 6 Mt, Av 5.1 MtUrea 1 to 1 3 Mt Av 1 2Mt– Urea 1 to 1.3 Mt, Av 1.2Mt
– MAP/DAP 1 to 1.5 Mt, Av 1.3Mt
– Single Super 0.5 to 1.3 Mt, Av 1.0Mt
• ~$3 billion sales
• >$15 billion effect on agricultural
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
$15 billion effect on agricultural production
• >$40 billion contribution to Australian economy
Seasonal Demand
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
5/2/2011
3
FIFA and Public Policy
• All manufacturers, bulk importers and major distributors are membersmajor distributors are members.
• A number of significant public policy issues with potential to disrupt the industry.
• Early positive involvement of the industry will lead to improved outcomes and
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
pforewarning.
Environment
• N and P in Water
• QLD WA Coastal Plain• QLD, WA Coastal Plain
• Many other areas
• Greenhouse emissions
• Abatement and sequestration credits for agriculture Carbon Farming
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
agriculture – Carbon Farming
• Emissions Trading
• NOx 16% of agricultural emissions
5/2/2011
4
Security - Contaminants
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
Quarantine
• No organic contamination
• No treatment options for finished product• No treatment options for finished product
• Protocols developed to remove risk at source– Engineering, procedures, sampling, to AQIS
approval
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
pp
– Third party annual audit, including AQIS audit every three years
• Risk status 1 (low) to 3 (high)
5/2/2011
5
Total Tonnage by Risk Level
90%
100%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Multiple
Processing
Level 3
Level 2
Level 1
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
0%
10%
20%
30%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
• Asean Bintulu
• KAFCO
Champions
• KAFCO
• SABIC
• PIC
• GPIC
M i Ri i (T )
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
• Mosaic, Riverview (Tampa)
• Profertil
• QAFCO
5/2/2011
6
Supply
• Phosphate RockMorocco– Morocco
– Togo
– China
• MAP/DAP– Australia (42%)
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
( )
– USA
– Morocco
– China
Supply
• Urea– Australia (18% of total)Australia (18% of total)
– Qatar
– Saudi Arabia
– Kuwait
– Bahrain
– Bangladesh
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
– Malaysia
– Argentina
– China
5/2/2011
7
Supply
• PotashUSA– USA
– Canada
– Russia
– Jordan
– Germany
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
– Israel
Trends?
1 000
1,200
400
600
800
1,000
t 00
0's
N P K
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
0
200
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
5/2/2011
8
Farm vol. Nutrient vol.
1 800
Fertilizer vs. Farm Production Volume
1 000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
0t /
Vo
lum
e In
dex NPK VI
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
600
800
1,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
N+
P+
K 0
00
Crop Area Growth
1.8
2
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Crop Area
Cattle No.
Sheep No
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
0
0.2
0.4
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
5/2/2011
9
Potential for Growth(FAO 2003)
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
Rainfall
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
5/2/2011
10
Crop Regions Rainfall(ABARES 2010)
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
East V West(ABARES 2010)
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
5/2/2011
11
Current Situation - Agronomic
• Water storages fullReturn of cotton rice and other irrigated– Return of cotton, rice and other irrigated crops.
• Soil profiles full– Confidence for large winter crop planting
(Eastern Australia)
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
– WA dry and dependent on planting rainfall
• Continuing productivity growth– GM and Precision Agriculture
Current Situation - Economic
• 2010 Winter crop production up 22% to 43Mt 43Mt – WA down
– Weather damage
• Eastern State confidence recovers
• Summer crop area 2011 up 67% to 1.5M
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
Summer crop area 2011 up 67% to 1.5M Ha
5/2/2011
12
Australia - Prospects
• Global trader
• Modern flexible agriculture• Modern flexible agriculture
• Steady productivity growth
• Capacity to respond
• Fast response to economic signals
F tili k d t i t f d ti
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
• Fertilizer a key determinant of production levels – and up to 30% of crop costs
• Seasonal factors critical
Key Economic Factors
• Cereal prices – also pulses and canola
• Fertilizer prices (Up to 30% of grain• Fertilizer prices (Up to 30% of grain production costs)
• Longer term recovery in animal numbers if prices remain high
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
• Forecast?– Volatility seems certain – Australia responds
to international prices for grain and fertilizer
5/2/2011
13
Australian New Production
• Legend - North QLD 72Mt @17% P2O5
• Minemakers Wonarah NT 1 258Mt @• Minemakers – Wonarah NT 1,258Mt @ 12% P2O5
• Perdaman - Collie Urea 2Mt pa 2014
• Latrobe Fertilisers – Urea 1.5Mt pa
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
Opportunities
• FIFA MembershipGPIC– GPIC
– QAFCO
• Australian Fertilizer Industry Conference 2013
• The Fertilizer Newsletter
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
The Fertilizer Newsletter
5/2/2011
14
Thank You
www.fifa.asn.au
Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia
+61 411 410 903