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11 th Petro India, New Delhi, 11 th Dec’12. Potential For Co-operation Between Neighboring Countries Upstream / Refining & Marketing /Gas. Ashok Dhar President (Industrial Marketing ). Forward looking statements. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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11th Petro India,New Delhi, 11th Dec’12
Potential For Co-operation Between Neighboring Countries
Upstream / Refining & Marketing /Gas
Ashok DharPresident (Industrial Marketing)
www.ril.com
Forward looking statementsThis presentation contains forward-looking statements which may be identified by their use of words like “plans,” “expects,” “will,” “anticipates,” “believes,” “intends ” “projects ” “estimates” or other words of similar meaning. All statements that address expectations or projections about the future, including, but not limited to, statements about the strategy for growth, product development, market position, expenditures & financial results, are forward looking statements.Forward-looking statements are based on certain assumptions & expectations of future events. The companies referred to in this presentation cannot guarantee that these assumptions and expectations are accurate or will be realized. The actual results, performance or achievements, could thus differ materially from those projected in any such forward-looking statements These companies assume no responsibility to publicly amend, modify or revise any forward looking statements, on the basis of any subsequent developments, information or events, or otherwise.
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Contents
South Asia – Regional Constituents Regional Indicators. Dependency on Fossil Fuels (Global &
South Asia). Energy Trade Patterns and Potential
areas of Co-operation. Trade Inhibiting factors. Way forward.
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South Asia: Regional Constituents
South Asia – A region of huge potential, both in human capital and natural resources, where people are dreaming for a better tomorrow.
South Asia – Regional Indicators
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South Asia: Demographic & Economic Indicators
South Asia, home to 1.6 billion people, facing challenges of hunger & poverty, rich in resources, not well distributed, has still turned into a region of developing economy inspite of all odds.
Source: www.cia.com, World fact book
Particulars Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Myanmar Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka
Area ('000 sqkm) 652 144 38 3,287 0.298 677 147 796 66Population (in mm) (Jul’12 est.) 30 161 1 1,205 0 55 30 190 21
GDP (PPP in $ bn) (2011 est.) 29.74 283.5 4.31 4421 2.8 82.68 38.08 488.4 116.3
GDP real growth rate (%) (2011 est) 5.8 6.5 5.3 6.8 5.8 5.5 3.9 3.0 8.30
GDP per capita (in$) (2011 est.) 1,000 1,900 5,800 3,700 8,600 1,300 1,200 2,800 5,700
Coast line (in kms) Landlocked 580 Landlocked 7,000 644 1,930 Landlocked 1,046 1,340
Natural Resources
natural gas, coal, petroleum, lead, copper, chromites, talc, barites, zinc, sulfur, iron ore, salt, precious and semi precious stones
natural gas, arable land, timber, coal
timber, hydropower, gypsum, calcium carbonate
coal, iron ore, manganese, mica, bauxite, rare earth elements, titanium ore, chromites, natural gas, diamonds, petroleum, limestone,
fish
petroleum, tin, timber, zinc, antimony, lead, copper, coal, tungsten, marble, limestone, precious stones, natural gas, hydropower
quartz, water, timber, hydropower, small deposits of lignite, copper, cobalt, iron ore
extensive natural gas reserves, limited petroleum, poor quality coal, iron ore, copper, salt, limestone
limestone, graphite, mineral sands, gems, phosphates, clay, hydropower
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Country comparison with the world
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South Asia: Trade with India
India has very low trading volumes with its South Asian Neighbors.
Source: www.commerce.nic; Figures for 2011-12
Afganistan Bangladesh Bhutan Maldives Myanmar Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Total Region
Exports
Value (Rs Crores) 2429 18387 1104 598 2645 13130 7448 20951
% Share 0.17 1.25 0.08 0.04 0.18 0.9 0.51 1.43 4.56
Imports
Value (Rs Crores) 622 2793 974 92 6352 2639 1918 3436
% Share 0.03 0.12 0.04 0 0.27 0.11 0.08 0.15 0.80
Total Trade
Value (Rs Crores) 3051 21179 2079 690 8997 15770 9366 24387
% Share 0.08 0.56 0.05 0.02 0.24 0.41 0.25 0.64
Rank 83 40 91 120 53 42 52 35 -
Trade Balance 1807 15594 130 506 (3708) 10491 5531 17516 47867
India Total Export – Rs.1465959 CroresIndia Total Import – Rs.2345463 Crores
66692
2.24
18826
85518
Dependency on Fossil Fuels - Global & South Asia
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Global Dependency on Fossil Fuels:
Globally, the share of fossil fuels will only decrease by 6% in the next two decades. The fuel mix changes slowly, due to long gestation periods and asset lifetimes.
Source: BP Outlook 2012
88%
82%
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South Asia - Dependency on Fossil Fuels
Demand of South Asian countries is outstripping the resource availability necessitating imports.
Source: www.eia.com, Oil and Gas estimates for 2011, Coal estimates for 2010
Country
Oil Gas CoalProven
Reserves Production ConsumptionNet
Export / (Import)
Proven Reserves Production Consumption
Net Export / (Import)
Proven Reserves Production Consumption Net Export /
(Import)
billion bbls 000 bbls / day trillion cu.ft billion cu.ft billion tons Million tons
Afganistan 0 0 5 (5) 2 5 5 0 0.4 0.04 0.04 0
Bangladesh 0.03 5.7 110 (104.3) 7 710 710 0 3.3 1.2 2.2 (1.0)
Bhutan 0 0 1 (1) 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.02
India 5.7 936.8 3426.0 (2489.3) 38 1682 2261 (579) 118.1 686.5 795.9 (109.3)
Maldives 0 0 7 (7) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Myanmar 0.05 20.8 45.0 (24.2) 10 421 118 303 0.3 1.6 1.2 0.4
Nepal 0 0 19 (19) 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.02 0.4 (0.4)
Pakistan 0.3 62.1 371 (308.9) 30 1383 1383 0 3.5 4.1 12.8 (8.7)
Sri Lanka 0 0 98 (98) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 (0.2)
Region 6.1 (3056.3) 87 (276) 125.6 (119.1)1025 4082 4201 4477 693.7 812.8
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Dependency on Fossil fuels is here to stay:
Algae Farm
Liquid demand growth is driven by transportation. One has to evolve a model of sustainable mobility that displaces liquid transportation fuels
Source: BP Outlook 2012
Liquid demand by sector Liquid demand by product group Transportation demand by energy type
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South Asia - Dependency on Fossil Fuels:
With rising demand for energy, all South Asian countries will continue to remain big importers of fossil fuels.
Source: BP Energy 2030
Source: integrated Energy potential of South Asia; Vision 2020
South Asia – Energy Trade Patterns and Potential areas of Co-operation
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South Asia – Energy Trading Potential
Inward looking energy import substitution policies aimed at national self sufficiency have resulted in low energy sharing.
Source: integrated Energy potential of South Asia; Vision 2020
CountryOil & Petroleum Products Gas Coal
Import Export Import Export Import Export
Afghanistan Yes No Yes No No NoBangladesh Yes No Yes No Yes No
Bhutan Yes No Yes No Yes YesIndia Yes Yes Yes No Yes No
Maldives Yes No Yes No No NoMyanmar Yes No No Yes No Yes
Nepal Yes No Yes No Yes NoPakistan Yes No No No Yes NoSri Lanka Yes No Yes No No No
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South Asia : Surplus Energy Availability
South Asian region, through cross border infrastructure linkages can look forward to reducing import dependency on the outside world.
HYDRO POWER
HYDRO POWER & GAS
GAS
GAS
REFINED PRODUCT
TRANSITLINKAGE
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South Asia: Energy Trade Prospects
Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Myanmar Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka
Afghanistan x x x Transit for
Energy trade with East Asia
x x xTransit for
Energy trade with East Asia
x
Bangladesh x x Marginal
hydropower & gas export via
India
Significant hydropower &
gas exportx x
Marginal hydropower & gas export via
India x x
Bhutan xMarginal
hydropower export via India
x Significant
hydropower export
x xUnlikely;
Similarity of resources
x x
India Supply Refined
products via Pakistan
Supply Refined products
Supply Refined products x Supply Refined
products Supply Refined
products Supply Refined
products Supply Refined
products Supply Refined
products
Maldives x x x x x x x x x
Myanmar x Marginal
hydropower export via India
xSignificant
hydropower & gas export
x x x x x
Nepal xMarginal peak hydropower
support x
Marginal peak hydropower
support x x x x x
Pakistan Supply of
electricity and gas
x x Supply of gas x x x x x
Sri Lanka x x xMarginal peak hydropower
support x x x x x
EXPO
RTIN
G C
OU
NTR
Y
IMPORTING COUNTRY
Co-operation of energy across the region will have multiple impact on social & economic conditions of the country.
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India’s – Refined Product Surplus Availability
India’s superior refining capabilities and surplus product availability can cater to demand of whole South Asian region.
Source: www.eia.com; cia world Factbook; Facts Global Fall 2011 Edition
Country
Refined Product Refining Installed Capacity
Production Consumption Net Export / (Import) 2011 2015 2020
000 bbls/day 000 bbls/day
Afganistan 0 4.2 (4.2) 0 0 0
Bangladesh 24.8 89.6 (64.8) 31 31 31
Bhutan 0 1.7 (1.7) 0 0 0
India 4125.0 3292.0 833.0 3967 4746 4906
Maldives 0 6.9 (6.9) 0 0 0
Myanmar 16.7 40.6 (23.9) 57 57 57
Nepal 0 18.4 (18.4) 0 0 0
Pakistan 205.9 426.7 (220.8) 294 436 686
Sri Lanka 38.6 108.9 (70.3) 50 50 50
Region 4411 3989 422 4400 5320 5730
India Surplus = 833 Kbbls/dayOthers Deficit = 411 Kbbls/day
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India and Pakistan – A Case Study Pakistan’s Refined Product Demand (Zonewise):
Zone I (Punjab/NWPF) is geographically and logistically near to India and shares close proximity to the Bhatinda Refinery/Panipat Refinery and Jalandhar pipeline tap-off point.
Zone 2 (Balochistan/Sindh) can be logistically fed by Indian Refineries from Gulf of Kutch via karachi and will replace product imports from Middle East.
Zones ProvinceDemand Concentration (in KT)
Demand (%)
Diesel Gasoline Jet/Kero FODemand Deficit Demand Deficit Demand Deficit Demand Deficit
Zone 1 Punjab/ NWPF 63% 4425 2266 1532 702 683 120 5792 4285Zone II Balochistan / Sindh 37% 2599 1331 900 413 401 70 3401 2516
Total 100% 7024 3597 2431 1115 1085 190 9193 6801Source: Fact Global Fall 2011
Destination To Road distances From (in Kms)Closest Supply PointZones Province Main City Location Karachi Jalandhar Bhatinda Panipat
Zone I
NWFP Islamabad North 1460 503 561 792 JalandharNWFP Peshawar North 1364 639 697 927 JalandharPunjab Lahore North 1282 133 205 415 JalandharPunjab Multan Central 936 488 495 706 Jalandhar
Zone II
Balochistan Quetta Central 692 1113 1084 1332 KarachiSindh Sukkur South 476 955 962 1173 KarachiSindh Hyderabad South 164 1262 1233 1150 KarachiSindh Karachi South 0 1415 1385 1613 KarachiSource: one way distances from www.googleearth.com
Indian refineries are better positioned to bridge product deficits of Pakistan, if there are no disincentives (prices, payment security and level playing field) for doing trade.
Trade Inhibiting Factors
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South Asia – Present Trade Inhibiting Factors Political/Security Considerations
Prolonged political tension between India and Pakistan. National Policy & Political Mindset
Reluctance to make efficient policy decisions due to the threat of possible supply disruptions due to political uncertainty.
Infrastructure Constraints.Lack of cross-border infrastructure to address mismatch between resource distribution and demand growth distribution.
Regulations and Sector ownershipPervasive state ownership of the energy companies and regulation of the retail prices with no effective independent regulatory body for resolution of disputes.
Mindset of policy makers should be more positive towards improving mutual relationships and reducing trust deficits.
Way forward
INDIAMYANMAR
AFGHANISTAN
BHUTAN
PAKISTAN
NEPAL
SRI LANKA
MALDIVES
We can have friendship pipelines, ferries and trains convert South Asia into a seamless region for a common market and an economic union on the lines of the European Union.
At present, South Asia is following independent inclusive policies for self sufficiency.
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Energy Trade Flow Boosters Friendship Product Pipelines:
– Jalandhar (India) – Lahore (Pakistan) – Kabul (Afghanistan)
– Haldia (India) – Dhaka (Bangladesh) Friendship Product Ferries:
– Jamnagar (India) – Karachi (Pakistan)– Vizag / Paradeep / Haldia (India) –
Chittagong (Bangladesh)– Vizag / Paradeep / Haldia (India) – Yangon
(Myanmar) Friendship Product
Transnational Freight corridor:– Lahore (Pakistan) - Delhi (India) – Kolkata
(India) - Dhaka (Bangladesh) – Agartala (India) [2453 km]
– Thimpu (Bhutan) - Haldia (India) [760 km]– Thimpu (Bhutan) – Chittagong
(Bangladesh) [880km]– Kathmandu (Nepal) - Phulbari (India) –
Chittagong (Bangladesh) [1442 km] – Kathmandu (Nepal) - Haldia (India) [1323
km] A quantum leap in connectivity will have Schumann Plan like transformational impact
Refined Products
………can then harness well endowed tradeable energy resources of Iran, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan……
An united South Asian Region……..
May this be the Delhi declaration of this conference for economic upliftment of people in the region.
Thank You