0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20M01 20M02 20M03 20M04 20M05 20M06 20M07

World: Daily new confirmed cases of Covid since late JanuaryPer 1,000,000 population, 7-day moving average

Canada

U.S.

OECD ex U.S.

and Canada

Cases per 1,000,000 population

NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Johns Hopkins CSSE)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

SG

P

AU

S

NZ

L

KO

R

SV

K

JP

N

GR

C

LT

U

HR

V

PO

L

CZ

E

ISR

NO

R

HU

N

ES

T

TU

R

SV

N

FIN

RO

U

AU

T

DN

K

DE

U

PR

T

LU

X

CA

N

CH

E

US

A

NLD

SW

E

FR

A

ITA

GB

R

ES

P

BE

L

World: Deaths per 1,000,000 population, selected countries50 days following first day of 1 death per 1,000,000

Deaths per 1,000,000 population

NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Johns Hopkins CSSE)

Forecast model for mortality related to Covid-19

Dependent Variable: Deaths per 1,000,000 population 50 days after first day of 1 death per 1,000,000

Number of observations: 30

Variable Coefficient

Constant 332.9

Mobility in the week preceding threshold of 1 death per 1,000,000 4.4

Number of long-term-care beds per 1,000 population aged 65 and over 2.5

Annual international arrivals 2.3

Number of hospital beds per 1,000 population -18.4

GDP per capita -0.003

Binary variable (Belgium) 548.2

R-squared 0.91

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

NZ

L

SV

K

AU

T

SV

N

ISR

PR

T

PO

L

CZ

E

RO

U

LT

U

GR

C

CA

N

IRL

HU

N

TU

R

ES

T

FIN

AU

S

DN

K

LV

A

NO

R

DE

U

BE

L

JP

N

SG

P

SW

E

KO

R

US

A

ITA

NLD

GB

R

CH

E

FR

A

ES

P

World: Mobility at beginning of epidemic, selected countriesGoogle-reported mobility in the week preceding threshold of 1 death per 1,000,000

Google mobility index

+7500 deaths in Canada

−5000 deaths in Canada

NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Johns Hopkins CSSE, Google)

31.2

16.518.5

16.5

17.3

Mobility in the week

preceding threshold of 1

death per 1,000,000

GDP per capita

Annual international arrivals

Number of long-term-care

beds as a % of population

aged 65 and older

*To measure the contribution of each variable, we multiplied the coefficient of each by their standard deviation. We then expressed each of

these values as a percentage of the total.

NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Johns Hopkins CSSE, World Bank, Google)

Number of

hospital beds

per 1,000 people

Contributions of model variables*

-13

-12

-11

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-72 -68 -64 -60 -56 -52 -48 -44 -40 -36 -32 -28 -24 -20 -16 -12 -8

World: Correlation of projected GDP losses with lockdown measuresDownward revision of 2020 GDP vs. Google mobility for 50-day period,* OECD countries

NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Google, OECD)

* Period of 50 days following first day of 1 death per 1,000,000

TUR

LUX

AUT

SVNBEL

PRT

ESP FRA

ITA

GBR

NZL

GRCCAN

CHE

POL

LTU

HUN

FIN

SVK CZE

EST

USA

DEU

AUS DNK

NOR

JPN

SWE

KORRevision of 2020 GDP

(percentage points)

Average decline of movements

over the period (Google data)

17,200

17,600

18,000

18,400

18,800

19,200

19,600

20,000

20,400

20,800

21,200

21,600

22,000

22,400

22,800

23,200

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

U.S.: Economic impact will be felt for several yearsReal gross domestic product – Congressional Budget Office projections

US$ billion, chained 2012 dollars

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via CBO)

May

projections

January

projections

10-year cumulative

downgrade: 37% of

annual pre-recession

GDP (2019)

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

United-States: A record indebtedness expected at the end of 2021Debt held by the public (% of gross domestic product)

% of GDP

NBF Economics and Strategy (data from CBO)

32.3

46.9

16.1

4.7

23.1

64.0

8.5

4.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

14 and younger 15-44 45-64 65 and older

Proportion ofpopulation

Proportion of deathsfrom flu andpneumonia

U.S.: Spanish flu vs. Covid, distribution of deaths by age group

NBF Economics and Strategy (data from CDC, Census Bureau)

18.6

39.7

25.8

16.0

0.022.5

16.8

80.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

14 and younger 15-44 45-64 65 and older

Proportion ofpopulation

Proportion of deathsfrom Covid-19

Spanish flu (1918) Covid-19 (to June 6)

% %

AgeAge

Léger poll

20

14 15 15

10

26

0.1 0.2 1 2

7

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

29 and younger 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70 and older

Proportion of COVID-19 cases

Proportion of deaths from Covid-19

Canada: Age distribution of Covid-19 cases and deathsAs of June 15

%

NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Public Health Agency of Canada)

Result of linear regression

NBF Economics and Strategy (data from Johns Hopkins CSSE, World Bank, Google)

Dependent Variable: Deaths in 50 days following 1 death per million pop.

Method: Least Squares

Included observations: 30

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C 332.9 86.3 3.9 0.0

Mobility at 1 death per million pop. 4.4 0.8 5.3 0.0

65+ in long-term care 2.5 0.8 2.9 0.0

International travelers 2.3 0.6 3.6 0.0

Hospital bed -18.4 4.4 -4.2 0.0

GDP per capita 0.0 0.0 -2.7 0.0

Dummy Belgium 548.2 66.9 8.2 0.0

R-squared 0.91 Mean dependent var 148.56

Adjusted R-squared 0.89 S.D. dependent var 183.36

S.E. of regression 62.13 Akaike info criterion 11.30

Sum squared resid 88787.74 Schwarz criterion 11.62

Log likelihood -162.46 Hannan-Quinn criter. 11.40

F-statistic 38.26 Durbin-Watson stat 2.16

Prob(F-statistic) 0

.

.