10 - Automotive Lightweighting and Upcoming Engery-Climate Policy Opportunities.pdf

7/27/2019 10 - Automotive Lightweighting and Upcoming Engery-Climate Policy Opportunities.pdf

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Great Designs in Steel is Sponsored by:

ArcelorMittal Dofasco, ArcelorMittal USA, Nucor Corporation,

Severstal North America, Inc. and United States Steel Corporation



ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE FUND

Automotive Lightweighting and UpcomingAutomotive Lightweighting and UpcomingEnergyEnergy--Climate Policy OpportunitiesClimate Policy Opportunities

John M. DeCiccoJohn M. DeCiccoSenior FellowSenior Fellow ▪▪ Automotive StrategiesAutomotive Strategies

Great Designs in SteelGreat Designs in SteelLivonia, MichiganLivonia, Michigan ▪▪ May 13, 2009May 13, 2009



OutlineOutline

•• Current Policy OverviewCurrent Policy Overview

▸▸

CAFE, California, EPACAFE, California, EPA•• National Climate LegislationNational Climate Legislation

▸▸ USCAP approach, Waxman billUSCAP approach, Waxman bill

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•• Implications for AutomobilesImplications for Automobiles▸▸ Ongoing policy driver likely, fuels issuesOngoing policy driver likely, fuels issues

•• Role of LightweightingRole of Lightweighting

▸▸ Clear role regardless of powertrain / fuelClear role regardless of powertrain / fuel

•• ConclusionsConclusions



Current Policy OverviewCurrent Policy Overview

•• Fuel economy / auto COFuel economy / auto CO22 emissions have been aemissions have been alongstanding challenge for public policylongstanding challenge for public policy

•• Result has been an evolving mix of requirementsResult has been an evolving mix of requirements

•• CAFE:CAFE: historical federal policy rationalizedhistorical federal policy rationalized

4

•• CA AB 1493 (Pavley):CA AB 1493 (Pavley): automobile GHG standardsautomobile GHG standardsenacted in 2002; status unresolved (EPA, courts)enacted in 2002; status unresolved (EPA, courts)

•• EPA:EPA: Mass. vs EPAMass. vs EPA 2007 Supreme Court decision,2007 Supreme Court decision,leading to the April 17 proposed endangermentleading to the April 17 proposed endangermentfinding that would trigger GHG regulationfinding that would trigger GHG regulation



Automotive Technology TrendsAutomotive Technology Trends

1.50

1.75

1 9 7 5 = 1 )

FUEL ECONOMY

HORSE

POWER

New U.S. vehicles, car and light truck combined fleet 1975-2008

5

0.75

1.00

.

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Model Year

I n d e x

(

WEIGHT

Source: derived from EPA data



Total Air Pollution and Fuel ConsumptionTotal Air Pollution and Fuel Consumption

Trends for U.S. Cars and Light TrucksTrends for U.S. Cars and Light Trucks

1.0

1.5

2.0

( 1 9 7 0 = 1

)

Fuel DemandFuel Demand

+73%+73%

6

0.0

0.5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

I N

D

E X

Air PollutionAir Pollution

--65%65%

The Clean Air Act framework has proven to beThe Clean Air Act framework has proven to bea critical driver for success.a critical driver for success.



Need for New PolicyNeed for New Policy

•• Importance of regulatory coordinationImportance of regulatory coordination

▸▸ Automakers call for "one national standard"Automakers call for "one national standard"

▸▸

Obama Administration is reviewing California waiverObama Administration is reviewing California waiverapplication and policy context.application and policy context.

▸▸ Waxman bill:Waxman bill: §§211(a)211(a) "… to the extent practicable,"… to the extent practicable,harmonize standards … b NHTSA EPA Cali . " harmonize standards … b NHTSA EPA Cali . "

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•• Desire for new national climate policyDesire for new national climate policy

▸▸ "Notwithstanding this required regulatory process,"Notwithstanding this required regulatory process,both President Obama and Administrator Jacksonboth President Obama and Administrator Jackson

have repeatedly indicated their preference for have repeatedly indicated their preference for comprehensive legislation to address this issue and comprehensive legislation to address this issue and create the framework for a clean energy economy." create the framework for a clean energy economy."

▸▸ USCAP: Blueprint for Legislative Action (Jan 2009)USCAP: Blueprint for Legislative Action (Jan 2009)



USCAP BLA Cover Page



Member Organizations:

Diverse Voices Represented



The Scientific Case for ActionThe Scientific Case for Action

•• Science is sufficiently clear to justify promptScience is sufficiently clear to justify promptaction to protect our environmentaction to protect our environment

•• Each year we delay action increases the risk of Each year we delay action increases the risk of unavoidable and potentially costlierunavoidable and potentially costlierconse uencesconse uences

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“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident fromobservations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures,widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.”

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report



The Economic Case for ActionThe Economic Case for Action•• Unchecked greenhouse gas emissions will strainUnchecked greenhouse gas emissions will strain

public budgets, limit economic growthpublic budgets, limit economic growth

•• Investment in 21Investment in 21stst century technologies andcentury technologies andpractices can generate jobs, economic growthpractices can generate jobs, economic growth

•• U.S. needs to be positioned to succeed in theU.S. needs to be positioned to succeed in the

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new lownew low--carbon, global economycarbon, global economy"… to truly transform our economy, protect our security, and save our planet

from the ravages of climate change, we need to ultimately make clean,renewable energy the profitable kind of energy. So I ask this Congress to

send me legislation that places a market-based cap on carbon pollution anddrives the production of more renewable energy in America."

President Barack Obama,Address to Joint Session of Congress, Feb. 24, 2009



Cap and TradeCap and Trade

•• Federal capFederal cap--andand--trade program coupled withtrade program coupled withcost containment measures and complementarycost containment measures and complementary

policies ensures environmental integrity,policies ensures environmental integrity,economic stabilityeconomic stability

•• Declinin economDeclinin econom --wide emission reductionwide emission reduction

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targetstargets

•• Provides incentives to transition to newProvides incentives to transition to newtechnologies while ensuring GHG emissionstechnologies while ensuring GHG emissions

reductionsreductions



What is theWhat is the BlueprintBlueprint??

•• Detailed framework for climate legislationDetailed framework for climate legislation

•• An approach to achieveAn approach to achieveaggressive environmentalaggressive environmentalgoals in a responsible andgoals in a responsible andeconomicall sustainableeconomicall sustainable

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mannermanner•• Consensus of a diverseConsensus of a diverse

organization, but notorganization, but not

the only path forwardthe only path forward



Core Blueprint ComponentsCore Blueprint Components

Targets &Timetables

ClimateProtection

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Scope ofCoverage

Reductionby 2050




EconomicProtection

Cost

Contain-ment

Targets &

Timetables

15

Allocationof Allowance

Value

Offsets

ma e

Protection80% GHGReduction

by 2050

Scope ofCoverage




Climate

CostContainment

Targets &Timetables

EconomicProtection

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Protection

80% GHG

Reductionby 2050

Allocation

of AllowanceValue

Offsets

Scope ofCoverage



Fair and Equitable AllocationFair and Equitable Allocation•• BlueprintBlueprint identifies principles to guide fair andidentifies principles to guide fair and

equitable allocation of allowances to:equitable allocation of allowances to:

▸▸ EndEnd--use consumers of electricity, natural gas,use consumers of electricity, natural gas,transportation fuelstransportation fuels

▸▸ Energy intensive industries facing international competitionEnergy intensive industries facing international competition

▸▸ TradeTrade--ex osed commodit roductsex osed commodit roducts

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▸▸ Competitive power generators and other nonCompetitive power generators and other non--utility largeutility largestationary sourcesstationary sources

▸▸ LowLow--income consumers and workers in transitionincome consumers and workers in transition

▸▸ Programs to achieve technology transformationPrograms to achieve technology transformation

▸▸ Adaptation needs of vulnerable people and ecosystems atAdaptation needs of vulnerable people and ecosystems athome and abroadhome and abroad



COMPLEMENTARY MEASURESCOMPLEMENTARY MEASURES

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TransportationTransportation

•• EconomyEconomy--wide emission reduction targetswide emission reduction targetsrequire systematic approach involving:require systematic approach involving:

▸▸ Fuel providersFuel providers

▸▸ Vehicle and equipment manufacturersVehicle and equipment manufacturers

▸▸

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▸▸ Public transportation, infrastructure and land usePublic transportation, infrastructure and land useofficialsofficials

•• Recommendations include improving fuel andRecommendations include improving fuel and

vehicle standards, efficiency of transportationvehicle standards, efficiency of transportationsystemsystem



Auto Efficiency is aAuto Efficiency is a

Matter of Design PriorityMatter of Design Priority

•• Technology progress has been steadyTechnology progress has been steady

▸▸ Most technologies have multiple benefitsMost technologies have multiple benefits▸▸ Whether fuel efficiency is gained depends on:Whether fuel efficiency is gained depends on:

-- Design objectives of a given vehicleDesign objectives of a given vehicle

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-- Overall mix of vehicles sold (e.g., car vs. truck)Overall mix of vehicles sold (e.g., car vs. truck)▸▸ Until very recently, past two decade's autoUntil very recently, past two decade's auto

technology improvements have gone mainly totechnology improvements have gone mainly toimproving power, capacity and other amenitiesimproving power, capacity and other amenities

•• Going forward, outcome will depend on jointlyGoing forward, outcome will depend on jointlyexpressed priorities of consumers, automakers,expressed priorities of consumers, automakers,and policymakersand policymakers



Options for Auto EfficiencyOptions for Auto Efficiency

•• Powertrain efficiencyPowertrain efficiency

▸▸ Advanced gasoline engines: many opportunitiesAdvanced gasoline engines: many opportunities

▸▸Improved transmissionsImproved transmissions

▸▸ HybridHybrid--electric, diesel in some applicationselectric, diesel in some applications

?? Breakthrough options: fuel cells, plugBreakthrough options: fuel cells, plug--in electricin electric

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•• Platform efficiencyPlatform efficiency▸▸ Mass reduction through balancing of fleet mix,Mass reduction through balancing of fleet mix,

plus lightweight materials and design techniquesplus lightweight materials and design techniques

▸▸ Aerodynamic drag reductionAerodynamic drag reduction

▸▸ Tire and accessory improvementsTire and accessory improvements

CostCost--effective approaches for mass reduction will beeffective approaches for mass reduction will be fundamental regardless of the powertrains and fuels used. fundamental regardless of the powertrains and fuels used.



Fuel OptionsFuel Options

•• BiofuelsBiofuels

▸▸ EthanolEthanol

▸▸ BiodieselBiodiesel

▸▸ Fully fungible fuels: green gasoline & diesel (includingFully fungible fuels: green gasoline & diesel (includingcoal+biomass to liquids with carbon capture & storage)coal+biomass to liquids with carbon capture & storage)

Many are promising, but few will be chosen. Fuels ultimately Many are promising, but few will be chosen. Fuels ultimately will succeed only by demonstrating market competitivenesswill succeed only by demonstrating market competitiveness

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•• ectr c tyectr c ty

▸▸ PlugPlug--in hybridsin hybrids

▸▸ Pure electric (battery only)Pure electric (battery only)

•• Natural gas ("Pickins Plan")Natural gas ("Pickins Plan")

•• Hydrogen ("FreedomCAR")Hydrogen ("FreedomCAR")

The most efficient vehicle mix possible will be crucial noThe most efficient vehicle mix possible will be crucial nomatter what fuels are chosen, to minimize both consumer matter what fuels are chosen, to minimize both consumer

costs and other impacts.costs and other impacts.



Advanced Gasoline EnginesAdvanced Gasoline Engines

GM's upcoming inline 4GM's upcoming inline 4--cylinder engine with Variable Valve Timingcylinder engine with Variable Valve Timing

•• AllAll--new, 1.4L turbonew, 1.4L turbo

version to powerversion to power

2011 Chevy Cruze2011 Chevy Cruze

•• 140 hp output and140 hp output and

148 lb148 lb--ft of torqueft of torque

23Source: GM Media © 2008 General Motors and Wieck Media Services, Inc.

•• Also to be used inAlso to be used in

two additional GMtwo additional GM

vehicles not yetvehicles not yet

announcedannounced

•• NonNon--turbo versionturbo versionto serve as rangeto serve as range--

extender for theextender for the

Chevy VoltChevy Volt



Findings from MIT "On the Road in 2035" studyFindings from MIT "On the Road in 2035" study

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

s e

i n

C o

s t

FUEL

CELL

PLUG-IN

HYBRID

BATTERY

ELECTRIC

Costs and Benefits of Technology Options Relative to a 2006 Midsize CarCosts and Benefits of Technology Options Relative to a 2006 Midsize Car

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0%

10%

20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Reduction in GHG Emissions

I n c r

e

GASOLINE

DIESEL TURBOGASOLINEHYBRID

GASOLINE TURBO

Source: http://web.mit.edu/sloan-auto-lab/research/beforeh2/otr2035/ (July 2008)



ULSABULSAB--AVC design results:AVC design results:SteelSteel--based 52 mpg Midsize Carbased 52 mpg Midsize Car

25Source: American Iron and Steel Institute ULSABSource: American Iron and Steel Institute ULSAB--AVC reportAVC report



Selection of low COSelection of low CO22--intensive materials is critical forintensive materials is critical for

reducing a vehicle's fuel use and net COreducing a vehicle's fuel use and net CO22 footprintfootprint

26Steel Lifecycle GHG BenefitsSource: WorldAutoSteelSource: WorldAutoSteel



Incentives for ProgressIncentives for Progress

•• Lightweight steel technologies are an importantLightweight steel technologies are an importantbut perhaps underbut perhaps under--recognized technology optionrecognized technology option

for vehicle efficiency and GHG reductionfor vehicle efficiency and GHG reduction•• "Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing"Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing

Incentive Program" (EISA 2007,Incentive Program" (EISA 2007, §§136)136)

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▸▸

Powertrain orientation: 25% higher fuel economyPowertrain orientation: 25% higher fuel economyrequirement for qualifying vehiclesrequirement for qualifying vehicles

▸▸ Does allow for qualifying components and vehicleDoes allow for qualifying components and vehicleintegration costsintegration costs

•• A need to educate policy makers regarding theA need to educate policy makers regarding thecritical enabling role played by technologies forcritical enabling role played by technologies forlightweighting, particularly "the new steel."lightweighting, particularly "the new steel."



ConclusionsConclusions

•• Current policy is in flux but presents opportunitiesCurrent policy is in flux but presents opportunities

•• Many parties point to need for new legislation toMany parties point to need for new legislation to

enable a balanced approach on energy and climateenable a balanced approach on energy and climate•• Climate policy will establish a steady, measuredClimate policy will establish a steady, measured

driver for higher vehicle efficiencydriver for higher vehicle efficiency

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unanticipated market forces)unanticipated market forces)

•• Ultimately, auto efficiency is a matter of designUltimately, auto efficiency is a matter of designpriority, not just "technology"priority, not just "technology"

•• Important role for platform efficiency and materialImportant role for platform efficiency and materialsolutions, especially advanced highsolutions, especially advanced high--strength steelsstrength steels

•• Truly technologyTruly technology--neutral policy is essential forneutral policy is essential formaximizing associated economic opportunitiesmaximizing associated economic opportunities



Thank you!Thank you!

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Contact:Contact: John M. DeCicco, Ph.D.John M. DeCicco, Ph.D.

Senior Fellow for Automotive StrategiesSenior Fellow for Automotive StrategiesEnvironmental Defense FundEnvironmental Defense Fund

[email protected] / [email protected] / www.edf.org



w w w . a u t o s t e e l . o r g

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Great Designs in Steel is Sponsored by:

ArcelorMittal Dofasco, ArcelorMittal USA, Nucor Corporation,

Severstal North America, Inc. and United States Steel Corporation

Documents

10 - Automotive Lightweighting and Upcoming Engery-Climate Policy Opportunities.pdf