10 5 - tefficient · tefficient AB 14 April 2020 1 Industry analysis #1 2020 Mobile data – full year 2019 Indosat, ID The gig economy: 58% more gigabytes generated 0.4% more revenue

tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 14 April 2020 1

Industry analysis #1 2020

Mobile data – full year 2019

The gig economy: 58% more gigabytes

generated 0.4% more revenue

5G monetisation lessons from China and Korea

Tefficient’s 26th public

analysis on the

development and drivers

of mobile data ranks 105

operators based on

average data usage per

SIM, total data traffic and

revenue per gigabyte in

2019.

The data usage per SIM

grew for each and every

operator. 44% could turn

that data usage growth

into ARPU growth.

Identify the skilled

minority that delivered on

“more for more”.

In this analysis, we take

5G monetisation lessons

from China and Korea.

Surely 5G could increase

data usage – but what

happens to ARPU?

T-Mobile, CZ +304%

Zain, KW

DNA, FI3, AT

Zain, BH +1%

Jio, IN +8%

Plus Cyfrowy Polsat, PL +7%3, ID +117%

Indosat, ID +146%

Kyivstar, UA +120%

Beeline, UZ +123%VEON, PK +103%

0

5

10

15

20

25

FY 2018 FY 2019

GB

pe

r S

IM p

er

mo

nth


Eighteen operators above 10 GB per SIM per month in 2019

Figure 1 shows the average mobile data usage for 105 reporting or reported1 mobile operators globally with

values for the full year of 2019 or for the first half of 2019.

Figure 1. Average data usage per reported SIM per month – all operators

As it’s not easy to read Figure 1 we will break it down into three regions of the world, but let’s first identify

the global data usage podium – see Figure 2.

There is a change at the top: Zain Kuwait has overtaken DNA as the operator with the highest

mobile data consumption per SIM. With 27.7 GB of data per SIM per month in 2019, Zain

records the highest-ever average usage to date. Zain launched 5G in June 2019 and sells smartphone plans

with massive buckets – up to 1 TB per month with 4G and up to 2 TB per month with 5G. Zain is also

offering data-only plans with buckets up to 6 TB – and one premium truly unlimited data-only plan.

With 25.4 GB, the previous number one, DNA from Finland, gets the silver medal. Unlimited,

speed-tiered, plans – both for smartphones and data-only – form a key component of the Finnish

1 By regulators – if reported latest 7 April 2020

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Zain, KW

DNA, FI

3, AT

Elisa, FI

FarEasTone, TW

Taiwan Mobile, TW

Zain, SA

Zain, BH

Chunghwa, TW

Nova, IS

*Telia, FI

Zain, JO

3, DK

**Digi, MY

**Maxis, MY

Jio, IN

Telia, DK

Celcom, MY

Telenor, SE

**LG Uplus, KR

3, SE

TDC, DK

Bite, LT

China Unicom, CN

3 Europe, Group

**dtac, TH

Tele2, SE

Plus Cyfrowy Polsat, PL

AIS, TH

**Free, FR

*3, UK

3, ID

Tele2, LT

Play, PL

Telia, LT

Telenor, DK

China Telecom, CN

Zain, Group

**Bouygues, FR

China Mobile, CN

***Wind 3, IT

Ice, NO

Vodafone, IT

Síminn, IS

Swisscom, CH

Airtel, IN

**Starhub, SG

Vodafone, TR

Orange, PL

XL, ID

**MegaFon, RU

**Turkcell, TR

Movistar, CL

Telia, NO

MTS, RU (smartphone)

Indosat, ID

Movistar, ES

**Singtel, SG

Vodafone, ES

Telia, SE

Movistar, PE

**Beeline, RU

Vodafone, IS

**Türk Telekom, TR (4G-only)

Vodafone, UK

Vodafone Idea, IN

Telkomsel, ID 1)

**MTN Irancell, IR

T-Mobile, CZ

**TIM, BR

Vodafone, PT

Vodafone, RO

Telenor, NO

O2, UK

**TIM, IT

Telenor, Group

Vodafone Ziggo, NL 1)

Vodafone, DE

**Kyivstar, UA

Vodafone, Group

Smart, PH

Vivo, BR

**Djezzy, DZ

**Proximus, BE

Movistar, AR

**Orange, BE

O2, DE

*Telekom, DE

Dialog, LK

Globe, PH

Movistar, MX

**Beeline, UZ

Vodafone, GR

**VEON, PK

Movistar, CO

Robi, BD

Vodafone, EG

**Grameenphone, BD

**Banglalink, BD

Zain, IQ

**MTN, ZA

Zain, SD

Vodacom, Group

**MTN, NG

Ncell, NP

Gbyte per reported SIM per month

FY 2019 1H 2019

*) Calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Data traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage

***) Calculated as 3 Europe total minus all other 3 operations1) FY 2019 = Q1-Q3 2019


market logic. DNA doesn’t report2 how large share of its base that has unlimited plans, but for Finland as a

whole, that share was 74% of non-M2M SIMs in December 2019. The Finnish operators all launched 5G in

2019, but DNA was the last to do so in December and then only as a solution for fixed wireless. (DNA has in

2020 expanded that offering into general mobile as well). DNA did nevertheless have the fastest growth in

mobile data usage among the three Finnish operators in 2019, but the 22% growth rate was slower than

previous years.

Figure 2. Average data usage per reported SIM per month – top 16 operators

Drei (3) Austria defends its bronze position from our previous report. The company carried 44% of

Austria’s total mobile data traffic in 2019. The Austrian home internet plans were pretty much

invented by Drei and come with unlimited, speed-tiered, data. Hybrid routers are now offered

by all operators (A1, Magenta and Drei) to speed up the slow fixed internet that is characteristic for Austria.

Unlimited smartphone plans are though a relatively new thing in Austria – Magenta and A1 (and finally also

Drei) introduced these in 2019.

Below the podium we find Elisa from Finland (20.7 GB per SIM per month in 2019). In spite of launching 5G

months before its two competitors Telia and DNA (well before there were any 5G terminals to deliver), there

wasn’t any 5G effect on Elisa’s overall mobile data usage: It grew 20% in 2019, a tad slower than for DNA.

2 Telenor Group acquired DNA in 2019 and reporting standard might change

27,7

25,4

24,8

20,7

20,6

20,1

19,4

16,5

15,5

13,9

13,8

12,0

11,7

11,4

23,7

22,6

19,2

18,4

18,3

14,1

15,4

13,9

12,0

8,6

10,7

11,2

Zain, KW

DNA, FI

3, AT

Elisa, FI

FarEasTone, TW

Taiwan Mobile, TW

Zain, SA

Zain, BH

Chunghwa, TW

Nova, IS

*Telia, FI

Zain, JO

3, DK

**Digi, MY

**Maxis, MY

Jio, IN


FY 2019 1H 2019


1

2

3

https://tefficient.com/mobile-data-operators-1h-2019/


Elisa is chased by the two Taiwanese operators FarEasTone (20.6 GB) and Taiwan Mobile (20.1 GB).

Zain’s operations in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain follow as #7 and #8. In position 9 we find Taiwan’s

Chunghwa that has significantly lower usage (15.5 GB) compared to FarEasTone and Taiwan Mobile but

the fastest growth – 36% in 2019.

The fastest growth in Figure 2 is though with Digi from Malaysia. In 2019, its average usage grew 83%

and Digi thereby surpassed its local competitor Maxis (+47%) in average data usage.

Zain Bahrain had the slowest growth – just 1%. It is not just slowest among the operators in Figure 2, but

the slowest of all our studied operators globally. We have compiled many reports like this over the years, but

we have not yet spotted an operator without growth in the overall mobile data usage.

Also Jio from India (#16) features slow growth – 8% in 2019.


Europe: Nordic operators and ‘3’ dominate the top

Now to the first of three breakdowns: Europe. The number 2 and 3 of the world, DNA Finland and Drei (3)

Austria, tops this chart with Elisa as third.

Figure 3. Average data usage per reported SIM per month – European operators

Nova from Iceland is ranked as number 4 based on the latest available 1H 2019 data. Telia from Finland

follows. Since Telia doesn’t report its mobile data traffic, we have assigned the country residual to Telia

(after having deducted Elisa’s and DNA’s reported traffic). A bunch of Danish and Swedish operators follow

based on latest available 1H 2019 data.

The bottom seven operators are from the low usage markets3 of Greece (Vodafone), Germany (Telekom,

O2, Vodafone), Belgium (Orange, Proximus) and the Netherlands (Vodafone Ziggo).

Who is then having the fastest usage growth in Europe? It’s T-Mobile Czech Republic with a

whopping 304% – from just 0.7 GB per month in 2018 to 3.0 GB per month in 2019. After years of

3 See our latest country data usage report: https://tefficient.com/usage-up-but-monetisation-falters/

25,424,8

20,7

13,9

8,4

7,77,5

7,36,96,96,7

6,35,8

5,8

5,75,1

4,44,1

3,33,03,03,0

2,82,62,5

2,31,91,81,81,8

1,3

15,4

12,010,7

9,59,2

8,6

7,7

6,6

5,8

5,7

4,8

4,13,6

2,9

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

DNA, FI

3, AT

Elisa, FI

Nova, IS

*Telia, FI

3, DK

Telia, DK

Telenor, SE

3, SE

TDC, DK

Bite, LT

Tele2, SE


**Free, FR

*3, UK

Tele2, LT

Play, PL

Telia, LT

Telenor, DK

**Bouygues, FR

***Wind 3, IT

Ice, NO

Vodafone, IT

Síminn, IS

Swisscom, CH

Orange, PL

Telia, NO

Movistar, ES

Vodafone, ES

Telia, SE

Vodafone, IS

Vodafone, UK

T-Mobile, CZ

Vodafone, PT

Vodafone, RO

Telenor, NO

O2, UK

**TIM, IT


Vodafone, DE

**Proximus, BE

**Orange, BE

O2, DE

*Telekom, DE

Vodafone, GR


FY 2019 1H 2019



https://tefficient.com/usage-up-but-monetisation-falters/


political and consumer pressure, the Czech operators in 2019 finally gave in and started to offer premium

unlimited smartphone plans. The allowances on data-only plans were also expanded significantly – but the

home internet plans with unlimited data are no longer offered, so the traffic growth in that segment may

have overwhelmed T-Mobile.

At the other end of the usage growth scale we find Plus/Cyfrowy Polsat from

Poland with just 7%. Little by little, the Polish operators have capped its unlimited

home internet plans and Plus/Cyfrowy Polsat is today no longer offering mobile-based

home internet without a usage cap. And as data-only subscriptions represent a

disproportionate share of the total mobile data traffic, such changes has an immediate

impact on the overall data usage. There are no Polish figures reported to support this,

but in e.g. Austria data-only represented 28% of the non-M2M SIMs but 76% of the

mobile data traffic in 2019.

Some signs of that

Europe’s operators

start to scale back

on unlimited home

internet

https://www.radio.cz/en/section/business/babis-seeks-clarity-from-operators-on-actual-mobile-data-prices


Asia and China: Taiwan fills the podium – but Malaysia on the move

The three Taiwanese operators FarEasTone, Taiwan Mobile and Chunghwa4 hold the top three usage

positions in Asia and China. Our previous report featured a special section on Taiwan. In short, one could

sum it up saying that dirt cheap unlimited plans drive traffic much more than it drives service revenue.

India’s Jio has been overtaken in our ranking by Digi and Maxis from Malaysia. Celcom, the incumbent, is

number 7 just behind Jio. Unlimited plans are becoming more common in Malaysia driven into the market by

the fourth operator, U Mobile5.

Figure 4. Average data usage per reported SIM per month – Asian and Chinese operators

There are three Asian/Chinese operators with more than 100% growth in the mobile data usage in 2019:

Indosat Indonesia +146%

3 Indonesia +117%

VEON Pakistan +103%

4 The operators aren’t reporting their mobile data traffic themselves; it is being reported by the regulator with a certain delay. There are

two other Taiwanese operators, T Star and Gt, but they are just reported together as ’other’. Their usage is in between Taiwan

Mobile/FarEasTone and Chunghwa. 5 Regretfully not reporting

20,6

20,1

15,5

12,0

11,7

11,4

10,3

9,5

8,3

8,0

7,5

7,0

6,4

5,9

5,4

5,3

5,1

4,6

4,2

3,2

3,2

2,0

1,8

1,7

1,3

1,2

0,9

0,8

0,5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

FarEasTone, TW

Taiwan Mobile, TW

Chunghwa, TW

**Digi, MY

**Maxis, MY

Jio, IN

Celcom, MY

**LG Uplus, KR

China Unicom, CN

**dtac, TH

AIS, TH

3, ID

China Telecom, CN

China Mobile, CN

Airtel, IN

**Starhub, SG

XL, ID

Indosat, ID

**Singtel, SG

Vodafone Idea, IN

Telkomsel, ID 1)

Smart, PH

Dialog, LK

Globe, PH

**VEON, PK

Robi, BD

**Grameenphone, BD

**Banglalink, BD

Ncell, NP


FY 2019 1H 2019

**) Data traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage1) FY 2019 = Q1-Q3 2019

https://tefficient.com/mobile-data-operators-1h-2019/


The slowest growth is with Jio – just 8%. Having said that, Jio is still top-ranked in

India with 11.4 GB per month. That usage is more than double that of Airtel and 3.5x

that of Vodafone Idea. But competition is coming closer: Airtel’s growth was 93% and

Vodafone Idea’s 75%.

Usage generally

grows quickly in

Asia and China


5G monetisation lessons from China and Korea

Our previous report featured a special section on 5G’s impact on the data usage in Korea. We will provide an

update on that in a bit, but let’s first study some preliminary results from another high-profiled 5G launch in

2019: China.

The Chinese 5G networks were launched in November/December 2019 and Figure 5 shows the subscriber

stats for February.

Figure 5. Reported subscriber bases – total and 5G – for China Unicom and China Telecom, February

China Mobile – with a total of 942 million mobile subscribers – had 15.4 million 5G subscribers in

February, making it the operator with the largest 5G base in the world. China Telecom had 10.7 million 5G

subscriptions, but as China Telecom’s total mobile base is roughly one third of China Mobile’s, China

Telecom’s 5G adoption was actually 3.2% – twice that of China Mobile. The third Chinese operator, China

Unicom – with 318 million mobile subscribers – has yet to report its 5G base.

The Chinese 5G plans are not unlimited, but come with very large data buckets. Most likely, some of these

plans are used by customers not having purchased a 5G handset. It’s not easy to match the time series with

that of e.g. Counterpoint, but the 5G subscriber numbers in China appears to be larger than the number of

942,2

330,4

15,4 10,7

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

China Mobile China Telecom

Mo

bil

e s

ub

scri

pti

on

s, Fe

bru

ary

20

20

[M

]

Total mobile subscriptions

of which 5G

5G: 3,2%5G: 1,6%

https://tefficient.com/mobile-data-operators-1h-2019/https://www.counterpointresearch.com/china-captured-46-global-5g-sales-cy-2019/


shipped 5G handsets. The Chinese operators are also pointing out that what they report is “mobile

customers who have subscribed to 5G tariff plans”. But the two 5G-reporting operators, China Mobile and

China Telecom, are keen to show that the 5G customers have much higher data usage, see Figure 6.

Figure 6. Development in mobile data usage – Chinese operators

The lines are showing the average mobile data usage per any subscription for the three Chinese operators.

Traffic is reported on a quarterly basis. By the end of 2019, the average Chinese mobile subscription used

about 7 GB per month.

China Mobile reported an average data usage of 16.9 GB per 5G subscriber for December. That’s roughly

three times that of the average China Mobile subscription in Q4 2019. In December, China Mobile only had

2.6 million 5G subscribers (compared to 15.4 million two months later) so one could suspect that the usage

wouldn’t stay at the 16.9 GB level. And we do not of course know what usage the early adopters of 5G had

before they migrated to 5G.

Well actually we do, since China Mobile reported these two before/after figures for February:

Data usage +16.8% vs. pre-migration

ARPU +6.5% vs. pre-migration

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Q12018

Q22018

Q32018

Q42018

Q12019

Q22019

Q32019

Q42019

Dec2019

Feb2020

Mo

bil

e d

ata

usa

ge

pe

r su

bscri

pti

on

pe

r m

on

th [

GB

]

China Mobile, 5G

China Telecom, 5G

China Unicom, full base

China Telecom, full base

China Mobile, full base

5G

5G


So if we trust this, a 5G plan customer had 16.8% higher data usage after having migrated from a 4G plan

to a 5G plan. More importantly, that customer paid 6.5% more. That sounds much better than the

headline of this analysis – 58% more gigabytes generated 0.4% more revenue.

Returning to Figure 6, we can see that also China Telecom dropped a figure for the

data usage among its 5G customers: 13.2 GB for February. That’s roughly double that

of the average China Telecom subscription in Q4 2019. Also here, it led to a like-for-

like increase in ARPU:

ARPU +10% vs. pre-upgrade

Does this mean that any operator should expect to see similar growth rates in ARPU

once 5G is launched? Not necessarily; the Chinese competition logic is different than

that of most other markets. And it doesn’t happen without investments. The Chinese

operators operate sizeable 5G networks:

China Mobile 50k 5G sites by end of December

China Unicom 60k 5G sites by end of February

China Telecom 80k 5G sites by mid-March

Most of the 5G sites operated by China Unicom and China Telecom are shared, but the total number of 5G

sites in China has still surpassed that of the previous rollout leader, South Korea, who had about 110k 5G

sites in total by the end of February.

Over to Korea then. The green line in Figure 7 shows the development in the average usage per 4G

subscription: It has been quite stable at around 9-10 GB per month. The introduction of 5G in April 2019 has

not had any major impact on the average 4G usage.

Chinese operators

report quite

significant ARPU

increase for

customers

upgrading to 5G


Figure 7. Development in mobile data usage per 4G and 5G subscription – South Korea6

The upper, red, line shows the 5G usage. Most months, it has been three times higher than the 4G usage.

As we mentioned in our previous report, 5G has de facto introduced truly unlimited plans to the general

public in Korea – so thinking that 5G in itself triples usage is incorrect. Or?

Pre-empting the one year anniversary of 5G, SK Telecom reported these before/after figures in March 2020:

Data usage: From 14.5 GB to 28.5 GB (2x)

You can see these two data points to the right in Figure 7. Note that the upgrading customers of SK

Telecom had significantly higher data usage already when in 4G; 14.5 GB vs. the country average of about

9-10 GB. But nevertheless that usage doubled after having moved to 5G. SK Telecom mentions that the

usage of VR, video streaming and gaming increased with 5G. In a previous update, SK Telecom also

mentioned that subscribers spent 37% less time connected to Wi-Fi after the transition to 5G – suggesting

that some 5G subscribers simply toggled Wi-Fi off. That behaviour could rather be driven by the introduction

of unlimited than the introduction of 5G, though.

In October 2019, SK Telecom reported that the doubling of data usage for customers upgrading to 5G had

resulted in a 50% increase in ARPU. It sounds almost too good to be true and perhaps it isn’t any longer

– as SK Telecom didn’t provide an update to it in its one year anniversary release. Looking at Figure 8,

6 As reported by the ministry, MSIT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Mar19

Apr19

May19

Jun19

Jul19

Aug19

Sep19

Oct19

Nov19

Dec19

Jan20

Feb20

Mar20

Mo

bil

e d

ata

usa

ge

pe

r su

bscri

pti

on

pe

r m

on

th [

GB

]

SK Telecom: After upgrading to 5G

Korea: 5G

SK Telecom: Before upgrading to 5G

Korea: 4G

https://tefficient.com/mobile-data-operators-1h-2019/https://www.sktelecom.com/en/press/press_detail.do?page.page=1&idx=1451&page.type=all&page.keyword=


though, we can see that the launch of 5G seems to have helped to lift the overall ARPU into the growth

territory again after two years of y-o-y decline. It’s only LG U+ that still has to pass the zero line.

Figure 8. Development in overall mobile ARPU per operator – South Korea

The number of 5G subscriptions in Korea was 5.4 million by the end of February. That’s 8% of the total

mobile base. 5G’s share of traffic was 23%.

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19

Mo

bil

e A

RP

U e

xcl.

I/C

–Y

-o-Y

tre

nd

SK Telecom KT LG U+

Launch of 5G

Increase in SIM-onlydiscount from 20% to 25%


RoW: Zain dominates the top

The rest of world ranking combines Latin American and Russian/CIS operators with operators from Middle

East, Africa and reporting international groups, see Figure 9.

Figure 9. Average data usage per reported SIM per month – RoW operators

The world leader, Zain Kuwait, tops this chart. Actually all of the top four operators are Zain operations.

Zain Group is though just ranked as number 6, showing that two Zain operations, Iraq and Sudan, pull that

group average down significantly. Two thirds of the subscriptions in Zain Group are in these two countries.

3 Europe Group is ranked as number five and it’s easy to see why; in the European comparison (Figure 3),

several operations of ‘3’ are top-ranked: Austria, Denmark and Sweden.

Russian and Turkish operators have relatively high usage but the growth has slowed considerably compared

to previous years. The Latin American operators have – with the exception of Chile and Peru – fairly low

average usage.

It is a pity that none of the US or Canadian operators report their data traffic or usage. Otherwise they

would have been in this chart.

27,7

19,4

16,5

13,8

8,1

6,3

5,2

4,8

4,8

4,7

3,6

3,6

3,3

3,1

3,0

2,5

2,2

2,2

1,9

1,9

1,9

1,6

1,4

1,2

1,0

0,8

0,7

0,7

0,5

0,5

4,9

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Zain, KW

Zain, SA

Zain, BH

Zain, JO

3 Europe, Group

Zain, Group

Vodafone, TR

**MegaFon, RU

**Turkcell, TR

Movistar, CL


Movistar, PE

**Beeline, RU


**MTN Irancell, IR

**TIM, BR

Telenor, Group

**Kyivstar, UA

Vodafone, Group

Vivo, BR

**Djezzy, DZ

Movistar, AR

Movistar, MX

**Beeline, UZ

Movistar, CO

Vodafone, EG

Zain, IQ

**MTN, ZA

Zain, SD

Vodacom, Group

**MTN, NG


FY 2019 1H 2019

**) Data traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage


African operators are – together with Zain Iraq – having the lowest monthly data usage per SIM in our

sample.

There are three RoW operators with more than 100% growth in the mobile data usage in 2019:

Beeline Uzbekistan +123%

Kyivstar Ukraine +120%

Djezzy Algeria +103%

As mentioned earlier, Zain Bahrain has the slowest usage growth rate in the world: 1%.


China Mobile carried 86% more traffic in 2019 than in 2018

We have seen that the data usage varies much between customers of different operators in different

countries. If we instead compare the total data traffic, the large population differences between the

countries make the spread even wider, see Figure 10.

Figure 10. Total data traffic – all operators

As it’s difficult to read Figure 10 we will in a bit break it down into the three regions of the world, but let’s

first identify the global data traffic leaders – see Figure 11.

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000

China Mobile, CN

Jio, IN

China Unicom, CN

China Telecom, CN

Airtel, IN

Vodafone Idea, IN

Vodafone, Group

Telenor, Group

Telkomsel, ID 1)

**MegaFon, RU


3 Europe, Group

AIS, TH

Zain, Group

XL, ID

Indosat, ID

3, ID

**Beeline, RU

**Turkcell, TR

**dtac, TH

**TIM, BR

Chunghwa, TW

Zain, SA

FarEasTone, TW

Taiwan Mobile, TW

**MTN Irancell, IR

Vivo, BR

Globe, PH

**LG Uplus, KR

**Digi, MY

Smart, PH

***Wind 3, IT

Vodafone, TR

Vodafone, IT

**Maxis, MY

**Bouygues, FR

**Free, FR


Celcom, MY

Play, PL

Elisa, FI

*Telekom, DE

Movistar, ES

**TIM, IT

O2, DE

Orange, PL

**VEON, PK

Zain, KW

*3, UK

3, AT


DNA, FI

O2, UK

Vodafone, DE

**Grameenphone, BD

**Kyivstar, UA

Vodafone, UK

Robi, BD

Vodafone, ES

Zain, JO

Movistar, PE

*Telia, FI

Vodacom, Group

Movistar, MX

Movistar, CL

Vodafone, EG

Swisscom, CH

Movistar, AR

**MTN, NG

Tele2, SE

**Djezzy, DZ

Vodafone, RO

TDC, DK

**Banglalink, BD

Telenor, SE

Dialog, LK

Telia, SE

**MTN, ZA

Movistar, CO

T-Mobile, CZ

3, SE

**Singtel, SG

3, DK

Telia, DK

Vodafone, PT

Tele2, LT

Zain, IQ

Telenor, NO

**Beeline, UZ

**Starhub, SG

Zain, BH

**Proximus, BE

Telenor, DK

Telia, NO

Zain, SD

Telia, LT


**Orange, BE

Ncell, NP

Bite, LT

Vodafone, GR

Ice, NO

Nova, IS

Síminn, IS

Vodafone, IS

Mobile data traffic [Petabyte]

FY 2019 1H 2019




Figure 11. Total data traffic – top 13 operators

China Mobile has 950 million mobile subscribers and is now, by far, the largest operator

in the world in mobile data traffic. Its total handset traffic grew 86% from 2018 to 2019.

The Indian challenger Jio is now the operator with the largest subscriber base in India – 370 million.

The data traffic growth in 2019 was 60%. Airtel India had a traffic growth of 91% whereas the

struggling Vodafone Idea only had 54%. As shown in the previous section on usage, Jio’s usage per

subscription didn’t grow much in 2019 – just 8%.

China Unicom is the Chinese operator with the highest average usage per subscription. Relative

to China Mobile, Unicom’s subscription base is small, though: Just 318 million. Even China

Telecom has a larger base now (336 million). The total handset data traffic of Unicom grew slower than

China Mobile’s and China Telecom’s: 46% in 2019.

Note that Vodafone Group (excluding India) only comes in as number 7 even though it consists of about

20 countries. It says something about the size of the Chinese and Indian operations.

65890

44560

31621

24370

18273

13452

7192

5500

4786

4397

4054

3753

29830

20460

14603

10896

7897

6170

3179

3032

2226

1937

1845

1771

China Mobile, CN

Jio, IN

China Unicom, CN

China Telecom, CN

Airtel, IN

Vodafone Idea, IN

Vodafone, Group

Telenor, Group

Telkomsel, ID 1)

**MegaFon, RU


3 Europe, Group

AIS, TH


FY 2019 1H 2019


1

2

3


Europe: Italy, France and Poland take the first six positions

First to the European breakdown. Since the highest ranked European operator is just number 32 in our

global rank, we could generally conclude that the European countries are less populated than the global

leaders – but also that growth is significantly faster outside of Europe. And it’s not the operators that you

necessarily would suspect (with the largest SIM base) that are in the top of Figure 12.

Figure 12. Total data traffic – European operators

The Italian operator Wind 3 is likely7 Europe’s largest operator in total data traffic. Vodafone Italy is the

runner-up. Italy has had an explosion in mobile data usage ever since the new fourth operator, Iliad,

launched 30 GB for 5.99 EUR in May 2018 – and all of competition copied.

7 CK Hutchison has taken over the full ownership of Wind 3 and as it was their previous shareholder VEON that reported data usage, we

miss input from Wind 3. In this analysis we have assigned the residual traffic of 3 Europe Group after having subtracted the calculated

traffic of UK, Denmark, Austria, Sweden and Ireland. When the Italian regulator reports the total mobile data traffic for Italy for 2019,

we should be able to check this calculation vs. the residual traffic of Italy – as TIM and Vodafone Italy report their traffic and Iliad’s

traffic on its own network (beyond national roaming) should have been limited in 2019.

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

***Wind 3, IT

Vodafone, IT

**Bouygues, FR

**Free, FR


Play, PL

Elisa, FI

*Telekom, DE

Movistar, ES

**TIM, IT

O2, DE

Orange, PL

*3, UK

3, AT

DNA, FI

O2, UK

Vodafone, DE

Vodafone, UK

Vodafone, ES

*Telia, FI

Swisscom, CH

Tele2, SE

Vodafone, RO

TDC, DK

Telenor, SE

Telia, SE

T-Mobile, CZ

3, SE

3, DK

Telia, DK

Vodafone, PT

Tele2, LT

Telenor, NO

**Proximus, BE

Telenor, DK

Telia, NO

Telia, LT


**Orange, BE

Bite, LT

Vodafone, GR

Ice, NO

Nova, IS

Síminn, IS

Vodafone, IS


FY 2019 1H 2019


***) Calculated as 3 Europe total minus all other 3 operations1) FY 2019 = Jan-Sep 2019


The two French operators Bouygues and Free follow8. The two Polish operators Plus/Cyfrowy Polsat

and Play come in as number 5 and 6 whereas the relative base midget Elisa (with 4.1 million subs) finishes

seventh.

The operators with the fastest traffic growth in Europe are:

T-Mobile Czech Republic +307%

Telia Lithuania +73%

Vodafone Italy +70%

Orange Belgium +67%

Bite Lithuania +65%

It’s interesting to note that with the exception of Vodafone Portugal, the European

operators with the slowest traffic growth in 2019 are operators that are or have been

renowned for unlimited:

Swisscom Switzerland +25%

DNA Finland +23%

Free France +22%

Elisa Finland +21%

Vodafone Portugal +17%

Telia Finland +16%

Plus/Cyfrowy Polsat Poland +10%

8 Orange and SFR could have been high-ranked as well, but neither are reporting data traffic or usage

The European

operators

renowned for

unlimited had quite

slow traffic growth


Asia and China: Quick traffic growth

We find the six global traffic leaders in the top of the Asian/Chinese comparison: China Mobile, Jio, China

Unicom, China Telecom, Airtel and Vodafone Idea. The 2018 to 2019 growth rates are high for all

these operators (46-91%).

Figure 13. Total data traffic – Asian and Chinese operators

The Indonesian operators (Telkomsel9, XL, Indosat and ‘3’) and the Thai operators (AIS, dtac) follow.

Although not matching the traffic growth of most of the Chinese and Indian operators, the Indonesian

operators are still experiencing pretty fast traffic growth:

Indosat Indonesia +72%

XL Indonesia +51%

3 Indonesia +41%

Faster still is the traffic growth of VEON Pakistan (+115%), Smart Philippines

(+96%) and Robi Bangladesh (+95%). Airtel India isn’t far behind with 91%,

Banglalink Bangladesh with 88% and, not to forget, China Mobile with 86%.

9 Represented with its Jan-Sep 2019 traffic for FY 2019 as Q4 2019 hasn’t yet been reported

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000

China Mobile, CN

Jio, IN

China Unicom, CN

China Telecom, CN

Airtel, IN

Vodafone Idea, IN

Telkomsel, ID 1)

AIS, TH

XL, ID

Indosat, ID

3, ID

**dtac, TH

Chunghwa, TW

FarEasTone, TW

Taiwan Mobile, TW

Globe, PH

**LG Uplus, KR

**Digi, MY

Smart, PH

**Maxis, MY

Celcom, MY

**VEON, PK

**Grameenphone, BD

Robi, BD

**Banglalink, BD

Dialog, LK

**Singtel, SG

**Starhub, SG

Ncell, NP


FY 2019 1H 2019


Fastest traffic

growth in Pakistan,

Philippines and

Bangladesh – but

India/China close


RoW: MegaFon larger than 3 Europe Group and Zain Group

Figure 14 collects operators from the rest of the world, but also a few reporting international groups.

Figure 14. Total data traffic – Rest of world operators

Vodafone Group and Telenor Group are number 1 and 2 in this RoW ranking. The other two groups, 3

Europe and Zain, are ranked as number 5 and 6.

MegaFon has regretfully stopped reporting data usage and is therefore represented with its last reported

1H 2019 traffic.

The Russian competitor MTS shadows whereas Beeline (#7) has a significantly lower traffic. Turkish,

Brazilian and Saudi operators follow – together with MTN Irancell.

The operators with the fastest growth in mobile data traffic in 2019 are:

Kyivstar Ukraine +119%

Beeline Uzbekistan +105%

Djezzy Algeria +101%

Slowest growth? Zain Bahrain – just 4%.

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Vodafone, Group

Telenor, Group

**MegaFon, RU


3 Europe, Group

Zain, Group

**Beeline, RU

**Turkcell, TR

**TIM, BR

Zain, SA

**MTN Irancell, IR

Vivo, BR

Vodafone, TR

Zain, KW


**Kyivstar, UA

Zain, JO

Movistar, PE

Vodacom, Group

Movistar, MX

Movistar, CL

Vodafone, EG

Movistar, AR

**MTN, NG

**Djezzy, DZ

**MTN, ZA

Movistar, CO

Zain, IQ

**Beeline, UZ

Zain, BH

Zain, SD


FY 2019 1H 2019



How much money can you make on mobile data?

The way we calculate revenue per gigabyte – total mobile service revenue per carried gigabyte – will

resonate with mature markets where operators generally aren’t attempting to monetise voice and SMS

based on usage. Instead they have made voice and messaging allowances unlimited and included them in a

flat fee.

In maturing markets, usage-based monetisation is still used to a higher degree. This is true also for voice

and messaging. With our calculation method, one might think that the operators ending up with the highest

effective revenue per gigabyte would thus be operators from maturing markets. You do find three African

operators in the lower parts of Figure 15 accompanied by Zain Iraq – but otherwise the operators with the

highest revenue per GB are from six European countries: Greece, Belgium, Norway, Germany, the

Netherlands and Switzerland.

Figure 15. Total mobile service revenue per gigabyte – all operators10

10 That also report mobile service revenue

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Jio, IN

Airtel, IN

3, ID

Indosat, ID

Vodafone Idea, IN

XL, ID

**MTN Irancell, IR

DNA, FI

China Unicom, CN

Taiwan Mobile, TW

FarEasTone, TW

3, AT

**Digi, MY

Zain, JO

**MegaFon, RU

Elisa, FI

Chunghwa, TW

Telkomsel, ID 1)

**dtac, TH

China Telecom, CN

Smart, PH

AIS, TH


**Kyivstar, UA

Zain, BH

China Mobile, CN

Tele2, LT

Zain, SA

**Maxis, MY

Zain, KW

Telia, LT

Globe, PH

Orange, PL

Celcom, MY

Play, PL

Vodafone, TR

Robi, BD

**VEON, PK

Movistar, PE

**Beeline, RU

Zain, Group

*Telia, FI

3, DK

**Banglalink, BD

Bite, LT

Telenor, Group

**Beeline, UZ


Movistar, CL

**Free, FR

Telia, DK

***Wind 3, IT

**TIM, BR

Movistar, MX

**Grameenphone, BD

Dialog, LK

TDC, DK

**Djezzy, DZ

3, SE

3 Europe, Group

Vodafone, RO

*3, UK

Telenor, SE

Zain, SD

**Bouygues, FR

Tele2, SE

**LG Uplus, KR

Telenor, DK

Vodafone, IT

Vodafone, EG

Movistar, AR

Movistar, CO

T-Mobile, CZ

Vivo, BR

**Starhub, SG

Vodafone, Group

Ice, NO

Vodafone, ES

**TIM, IT

Telia, SE

**Singtel, SG

Ncell, NP

Vodafone, UK

O2, DE

O2, UK

Vodafone, PT

Swisscom, CH

Telia, NO

Vodafone, DE

*Telekom, DE

Zain, IQ


**MTN, NG

Vodacom, Group

**Proximus, BE

**MTN, ZA

Telenor, NO

**Orange, BE

Vodafone, GR

Total mobile service revenue per Gbyte [EUR]

FY 2019 1H 2019*) Calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators

**) Data traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage***) Calculated as 3 Europe total minus all other 3 operations

1) FY 2019 = Q1-Q3 2019


We will – for readability reasons – soon break Figure 15 down into Europe, Asia/China and RoW, but let’s

first look into a disclaimer with regards to operators marked with * or **.

Having explained this, let’s now in Figure 15 identify the ten operators that get the lowest total mobile

service revenue per gigabyte in the world:

1H 2019 FY 2019

1. Jio, India 0.1 EUR 0.1 EUR

2. Airtel, India 0.3 EUR 0.3 EUR

3. 3, Indonesia 0.3 EUR 0.3 EUR

4. Indosat, Indonesia 0.5 EUR 0.4 EUR

5. Vodafone Idea, India 0.5 EUR 0.4 EUR

6. XL, Indonesia 0.4 EUR 0.4 EUR

7. MTN Irancell, Iran** 0.6 EUR 0.6 EUR

8. DNA, Finland 0.6 EUR 0.6 EUR

9. China Unicom, China 0.7 EUR 0.6 EUR

10. Taiwan Mobile, Taiwan 0.7 EUR 0.7 EUR

When reporting mobile data traffic, take inspiration from Vodafone and Telefónica

Most graphs in this analysis carry this legend:

*) Data traffic calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators


There are a number of operators globally that, in their regular easy-to-use Excel sheets, report their total mobile data traffic

quarter by quarter. Of the larger operators groups, Vodafone and Telefónica are two good examples. We encourage all

operators to follow their example.

Some operators are instead reporting – or occasionally indicating – data usage. These are the operators marked with **. The

problem here is that many operators aren’t defining what a user is – sometimes it is all users, sometimes “active data users”

(whatever that is), sometimes smartphone users, sometimes branded smartphone users, sometimes postpaid users, sometimes

4G users. Typically these usage numbers are stated to impress, i.e. they are representative only for a smaller, high-usage,

segment of the subscriber base. Exceptions to that operators reporting usage aren’t reporting the number of associated users are

e.g. VEON Group, MTN Group and AIS that report the usage per mobile data customer and the number of such mobile data

customers (a subset of the total customer base). Well done.

The majority of operators are still not reporting anything, though. Orange Group and Telia Company are examples of it. And, of

course, all North American carriers. In some cases, country regulators are helpful in reporting a breakdown per operator. But in

most cases, the country regulator is just reporting a total. In such occasions – and if also all other operators report data traffic or

at least usage – we have calculated the country residual and assumed that this traffic equals that of the non-reporting operator.

These are the operators marked with *.

It’s not necessarily so that a regulator and the reporting operators use exactly the same definition when reporting data traffic.

Traffic via MVNOs can e.g. disturb the comparability. Where the error risks to be the largest, though, is in countries where the

country residual has been assigned to a *-marked operator while, at the same time, one or several of the other operators are **-

marked operators, i.e. have not explicitly reported the total data traffic but some type of usage.

So if any operator (*-marked or **-marked) is unhappy with its calculated data traffic, the solution is simple: Start to report your

total mobile data traffic.


These operators are either active in mature high data usage markets (Finland, Taiwan) or in highly

competitive maturing markets (India, Indonesia).

The ten operators that get the highest total mobile service revenue per gigabyte in the world are:

1H 2019 FY 2019

1. Vodafone, Greece 14.0 EUR 11.6 EUR

2. Orange, Belgium** 11.3 EUR 10.8 EUR

3. Telenor, Norway 8.7 EUR n/a

4. MTN, South Africa** 8.7 EUR 8.7 EUR

5. Proximus, Belgium** 9.2 EUR 8.7 EUR

6. Vodacom, Group 8.8 EUR 8.0 EUR

7. MTN, Nigeria** 8.4 EUR 7.9 EUR

8. Vodafone Ziggo, Netherlands 1) 8.0 EUR 7.1 EUR 1) FY 2019=Q1-Q3 2019

9. Zain, Iraq n/a 6.4 EUR

10. Telekom, Germany* 11 n/a 6.3 EUR

In our mature market focused country analysis you can identify Belgium, Germany, Greece, Norway and the

Netherlands as some of the country markets (of the covered) with the highest revenue per gigabyte so this

list seems plausible.

We conclude that there in 2019 there was 83x difference between the operator with the highest total

service revenue per gigabyte (Vodafone Greece) and the operator with the lowest (Jio India).

11 Since Telekom doesn’t report mobile data traffic, but the two competitors O2 and Vodafone both do, we have calculated Telekom’s

traffic as the country residual. The regulator BNetzA has not yet reported the final mobile data traffic figure for 2019, though – just a

preliminary figure. If the final figure deviates significantly, Telekom’s position will change.

https://tefficient.com/usage-up-but-monetisation-falters/


Europe: Wide spread in the revenue per GB

Figure 16 shows the European breakdown. Since European operators played both in the bottom and in top

of the global chart, the spread is almost as large as in the global view. To ease comparability, the scale is

kept intact throughout this section.

Figure 16. Total mobile service revenue per gigabyte – European operators

As pointed out in the global section, Greek, Belgian, Norwegian, German, Dutch and Swiss operators play in

the bottom of the graph – where the total service revenue per consumed gigabyte is high. In the other end

of the scale – where the revenue per gigabyte is low – we find operators from Finland, Austria, Lithuania

and Poland.

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

DNA, FI

3, AT

Elisa, FI

Tele2, LT

Telia, LT

Orange, PL

Play, PL

*Telia, FI

3, DK

Bite, LT

**Free, FR

Telia, DK

***Wind 3, IT

TDC, DK

3, SE

Vodafone, RO

*3, UK

Telenor, SE

**Bouygues, FR

Tele2, SE

Telenor, DK

Vodafone, IT

T-Mobile, CZ

Ice, NO

Vodafone, ES

**TIM, IT

Telia, SE

Vodafone, UK

O2, DE

O2, UK

Vodafone, PT

Swisscom, CH

Telia, NO

Vodafone, DE

*Telekom, DE


**Proximus, BE

Telenor, NO

**Orange, BE

Vodafone, GR


FY 2019 1H 2019




Asia and China: Revenue per GB decreasing, but not as fast as before

Figure 17 shows the Asian and Chinese operators. Indian and Indonesian operators have the lowest revenue

per gigabyte whereas no operator is having very high revenue.

Figure 17. Total mobile service revenue per gigabyte – Asian and Chinese operators

The erosion in revenue per gigabyte in Asia/China is no longer as quick as it has been in our previous

reports. In most cases, data usage has reached new highs – of these operators, only Bangladesh’s

Banglalink and Grameenphone plus Nepal’s Ncell were below 1 GB per SIM per month in 2019.

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Jio, IN

Airtel, IN

3, ID

Indosat, ID

Vodafone Idea, IN

XL, ID

China Unicom, CN

Taiwan Mobile, TW

FarEasTone, TW

**Digi, MY

Chunghwa, TW

Telkomsel, ID 1)

**dtac, TH

China Telecom, CN

Smart, PH

AIS, TH

China Mobile, CN

**Maxis, MY

Globe, PH

Celcom, MY

Robi, BD

**VEON, PK

**Banglalink, BD

**Grameenphone, BD

Dialog, LK

**LG Uplus, KR

**Starhub, SG

**Singtel, SG

Ncell, NP


FY 2019 1H 2019



RoW: Big drop in revenue per GB in certain maturing markets

We are ending this section with Figure 18 – showing the operators in the rest of the world alongside a few

groups that separate out mobile service revenue in their reporting.

Figure 18. Total mobile service revenue per gigabyte – rest of world operators

MTN Irancell, Russian operators, Kyivstar from Ukraine and Zain’s Middle East operations dominate the top

of the chart where revenues are the lowest per gigabyte. Latin American operators clutter the middle of the

chart whereas sub-Saharan operators populate the bottom of the graph.

Beeline Uzbekistan, MTN Irancell, Movistar in Peru and Mexico and Djezzy from Algeria had very significant

drops in the revenue per gigabyte in 2019.

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

**MTN Irancell, IR

Zain, JO

**MegaFon, RU


**Kyivstar, UA

Zain, BH

Zain, SA

Zain, KW

Vodafone, TR

Movistar, PE

**Beeline, RU

Zain, Group

Telenor, Group

**Beeline, UZ


Movistar, CL

**TIM, BR

Movistar, MX

**Djezzy, DZ

3 Europe, Group

Zain, SD

Vodafone, EG

Movistar, AR

Movistar, CO

Vivo, BR

Vodafone, Group

Zain, IQ

**MTN, NG

Vodacom, Group

**MTN, ZA


FY 2019 1H 2019



The revenue per GB vs. usage chart

Let us now combine the revenue per gigabyte with the usage. Those of you that have read our data usage

and revenue analyses before are familiar with the revenue per GB vs. usage chart, see Figure 19.

Figure 19. Mobile data usage vs. total mobile service revenue per Gbyte

With all those markers, we have only been able to highlight the operators that have more extreme positions.

The amber line is not a regression line, but illustrates where 15 EUR of ARPU is earned. Operators above the

line earn more – and operators below the line less than 15 EUR.

Most mature markets operators operate with an APRU of around 15 EUR. Many operators in maturing

markets clutter in the southwest or south parts of the chart.

Elisa, FI

*Telia, FI

DNA, FI

*Telekom, DEVodafone, DE

O2, DE

3, AT

T-Mobile, CZ Vodafone, UKO2, UK

*3, UKPlay, PL

**Proximus, BE **Orange, BE

Vodafone, IT

**TIM, IT Vodafone Ziggo, NL 1)Vodafone, RO

Vodafone, GR

**Bouygues, FRSwisscom, CH

Bite, LT

Vodafone, EG

Zain, KW

Zain, BH

Zain, SA

Zain, JO

Zain, IQ **MTN, ZA

Movistar, CL

Movistar, CO

**Maxis, MY

Celcom, MY

**Singtel, SG

**Starhub, SG

**LG Uplus, KR

FarEasTone, TW

Chunghwa, TW

Taiwan Mobile, TW

Vodafone, GroupTelenor, Group

3 Europe, Group

Vodacom, GroupNcell, NP

Vodafone Idea, IN

Airtel, IN

Jio, IN

Robi, BD

Indosat, ID

3, ID

China Unicom, CN

Smart, PHGlobe, PH

**Digi, MY

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 5 10

Gb

yte

pe

r re

po

rte

d S

IM a

nd

mo

nth

, FY

20

19

Total mobile service revenue per Gbyte, FY 2019 [EUR]

15 EUR ARPU line

*) Data traffic calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Data traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage***) Calculated as 3 Europe total minus all other 3 operations1) FY 2019 = Q1-Q3 2019


The ARPU vs. usage chart

One could criticise the previous chart for comparing the number of gigabytes with something that relates to

it – the revenue per gigabyte. Our next chart, Figure 20, is therefore comparing the number of gigabytes

with the revenue per subscription, i.e. the ARPU. And that is perhaps even more interesting.

Figure 20. Mobile data usage vs. total mobile service revenue per SIM

Of all the operators there are three12 – Swisscom, Zain Kuwait and LG Uplus – that enjoy much higher

total mobile service revenue per SIM than all other operators. In the case of Zain the data consumption is

also very high – highest in the world. Swisscom’s subscribers – although many are on speed-tiered unlimited

plans – are not using particularly much data, but the ARPU is the highest in this group of reporting operators.

In the middle top of the graph there is a cluster of operators with very high average data usage but

moderate ARPU of about 15-20 EUR. Here we find the Finnish and the Taiwanese operators together with

Drei (3) Austria and Zain in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

12 Of the operators that have reported data usage and mobile service revenue in 2019

Elisa, FI

*Telia, FI

DNA, FI

*Telekom, DEO2, DE

3, AT

T-Mobile, CZVodafone, UKO2, UK

*3, UKPlay, PL

**Proximus, BE **Orange, BE

Vodafone, IT***Wind 3, IT

Vodafone, ES


Vodafone, GR

**Free, FR

**Bouygues, FRSwisscom, CH

Bite, LT


Vodafone, TR

Zain, KW

Zain, BH

Zain, SA

Zain, JO

**MTN, NG**MTN, ZA

Movistar, CL

Vivo, BR

**Maxis, MY

Celcom, MY

**Singtel, SG

**Starhub, SG

**LG Uplus, KR

FarEasTone, TW

Chunghwa, TW

Taiwan Mobile, TW

3 Europe, Group

Vodafone Idea, IN

**Banglalink, BD

Airtel, IN

Jio, IN

XL, ID

Robi, BD

Indosat, ID

3, ID

China Unicom, CN

Smart, PHGlobe, PH

AIS, TH**dtac, TH

**Digi, MY

R² = 0,28

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Gb

yte

pe

r re

po

rte

d S

IM a

nd

mo

nth

, FY

20

19

Total mobile service revenue per SIM and month, FY 2019 [EUR]

15 EUR ARPU line*) Data traffic calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Data traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage***) Calculated as 3 Europe total minus all other 3 operations1) FY 2019 = Q1-Q3 2019


And then there’s Jio. Its ARPU isn’t the lowest, but considering an average data usage above 11 GB per

month, Jio is the clear affordability leader of the world.

The grey regression line suggests that operators with higher data usage have

higher ARPU.

To moderate this, one has to realise that the adherence to this line (shown by a R2

value below 1) isn’t perfect. And we should also remember that the line visualises an

international – not a national – trend: It is quite difficult to find national examples

showing that operators with higher data usage enjoy higher ARPU. If anything, it’s

rather the opposite. It’s typically the challenger operator that has the customers with

the highest data usage and challenger operators tend to have lower ARPU than

incumbents.

International trend:

Operators with

higher data usage

tend to have higher

ARPU


Dressing the Christmas tree

Absolute ARPU aside, how many of the operators have been able to deliver on

“more for more” i.e. been able to increase ARPU while increasing data usage? And

how many are just following the “more for less” stream, giving users more data but

not being able to charge anything more?

This isn’t the prettiest Christmas tree you’ve seen, but it is at least relatively well

balanced: When data usage increased, 44% of operators could grow ARPU

(with branches growing to the right) – 56% could not.

Figure 21. Mobile data usage development vs. ARPU13 development – 2018 to 2019

Let’s highlight a few best practices of successful “more for more” operators:

13 ARPU is calculated as the reported total mobile service (non-equipment) revenue incl. interconnect & roaming divided with the

average number of reported SIMs. It can differ from the definition of operator reported ARPU.

Elisa, FI

*Telia, FI

DNA, FI

3, AT

*3, UK

Orange, PL

**TIM, ITVodafone, RO

Vodafone, GR

**Free, FR

Bite, LT

MTS, RU (smartphone)Vodafone, TR

**Kyivstar, UA

Vodafone, EG

Zain, KW

Zain, BH

Zain, SA

Zain, JO

Zain, IQ

**MTN Irancell, IR

Movistar, AR

Movistar, PE

**Maxis, MY

Celcom, MY

**Singtel, SG

**LG Uplus, KR

FarEasTone, TW

Chunghwa, TW

Taiwan Mobile, TW

Ncell, NP

Airtel, IN

Jio, IN

Telkomsel, ID 1)

Robi, BD

Indosat, ID

3, IDChina Telecom, CN

China Unicom, CN

China Mobile, CN

Globe, PH

**Digi, MY

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Gb

yte

pe

r re

po

rte

d S

IM p

er

mo

nth

Total mobile service revenue per SIM and month dev. 2018-2019 [local currency]

FY 2019

FY 2018

Decreasing ARPU Increasing ARPU

*) Calculated as country total minus all other (reporting) operators**) Data traffic not reported, but calculated based on reported usage***) Calculated as 3 Europe total minus all other 3 operations1) FY 2019 = Q1-Q3 2019

Data usage grew

for 100% of

operators

ARPU grew for

44% of operators


The Finnish operators DNA and, to a lesser extent, Telia have been able to grow ARPU thanks to

more and more customers upgrading to faster (and more expensive) speed tiers on their unlimited

plans. Based on its reported service revenue (which includes Estonia), Elisa was just below zero.

Zain in Saudi Arabia could increase revenues in 2019 in spite of a fall in subscriber base. The

company launched a large-scale 5G network in October 2019.

Celcom in Malaysia managed to turn the usage growth into ARPU growth when the two local

competitors Maxis and Digi could not.

Free in France isn’t growing its total mobile base any longer – but are gradually increasing the share

of customers who subscribe to their premium unlimited 4G14 plans, thereby lifting ARPU. Local

competitor Bouygues is also growing its data usage, but with a falling ARPU.

All three Lithuanian operators Tele2, Telia and Bite could once again turn usage growth into ARPU

growth.

India’s Airtel experienced the most disruptive entrant ever, Jio, but has now managed to turn the

expansion in mobile data usage into APRU growth. Airtel has fared much better than its competitor

Vodafone Idea even though also Vodafone Idea also had a bit of ARPU growth. Note that Jio’s ARPU

is now in decline.

3 and Indosat in Indonesia had a massive ARPU expansion but the main reason is the mandatory

SIM registration in Indonesia in 2018 that halved the subscription bases of the two operators. In

spite of this, 3 and Indosat could still grow revenue y-o-y which suggests that most of these

disconnected non-registered SIMs were not generating much revenue. Telkomsel is also on the

right side of the Christmas tree based on its reported Q1-Q3 2019 data.

We do not mention Movistar in Argentina as the development mainly is due to hyperinflation.

56% of the operators are on the branches facing left. They had data usage growth, but anyhow a decline

in ARPU. There are a few operators standing out quite negatively here:

Taiwan where the three incumbent mobile operators FarEasTone, Taiwan Mobile and Chunghwa all

continued to experience decreasing ARPU in spite of growing data usage.

All the three Chinese operators – China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom – have

experienced significant growth in data usage while ARPU has been falling 8% to 10%.

Finally MTN Irancell where data usage grew but ARPU collapsed when further sanctions worsened

the country’s financial crisis.

The fact that less than half (44%) of the operators managed to turn data usage growth into APRU growth is

regretfully a deterioration compared to our Christmas tree graph for the first half of 2019 – in which a

majority, for the first time, could grow ARPU. Let’s hope that our 1H 2020 analysis – supported by 5G –

could show an improvement. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic might have unforeseen consequences,

though.

14 Unlimited in conjunction with a Freebox (triple-play) subscription – otherwise limited to 50 or 100 GB


Conclusion

In this analysis, we have presented fourteen updated ranking charts and two correlation plots and

we hope these are useful for you in understanding how mobile data usage, traffic and service

revenues are developing globally. Generally speaking, data usage and traffic grow – while service

revenue is flat. If summing up all our studied operators, they carried 58% more gigabytes in

2019 compared to 2018 – but only generated 0.4% more revenue. It’s remarkable that a

product that is so much in demand can’t be monetised better.

Our special section this time focused on how 5G affects data usage and ARPU in China and

South Korea. Let’s see if this extends to the rest of the world – but according to Chinese and

Korean operators, 5G customers use much more data after having upgraded from 4G. Better

news still: Figures from China speak about ARPU increasing 6.5% or 10% for upgrading

customers. And in Korea, 5G – although just adopted by 8% of the subscribers – has been a factor

behind the turnaround in total market ARPU. After two years of y-o-y decline, ARPU rose again in

Q4.

Our beloved Christmas tree

graph shows that data

usage grows for all

operators – but that less

than half of these operators

have been able to turn that

into ARPU growth; 44%

delivered on a “more for

more” promise. They

proved their capability to

monetise an increasing

mobile data usage.

How do you do that? Well,

there are many initiatives

tried out – unlimited, zero-rating, rollover, speed/video/priority tiers, inclusive content, FMC, all-

digital brands – and, of course, 5G. As specialists in mobile data monetisation, we can help you to

understand what works.

International telco competitiveness specialist providing operators and suppliers with analysis, benchmarks and go-to-

market preparation. Expertise in data monetisation, customer loyalty, Nonstop Retention®, FMC, mobile video, fibre, Wi-

Fi and 5G business models.

www.tefficient.com

Elisa, FI

*Telia, FI

DNA, FI

3, AT

*3, UK

Orange, PL

**TIM, ITVodafone, RO

Vodafone, GR

**Free, FR

Bite, LT

MTS, RU (smartphone)Vodafone, TR

**Kyivstar, UA

Vodafone, EG

Zain, KW

Zain, BH

Zain, SA

Zain, JO

Zain, IQ

**MTN Irancell, IR

Movistar, AR

Movistar, PE

**Maxis, MY

Celcom, MY

**Singtel, SG

**LG Uplus, KR

FarEasTone, TW

Chunghwa, TW

Taiwan Mobile, TW

Ncell, NP

Airtel, IN

Jio, IN

Telkomsel, ID 1)

Robi, BD

Indosat, ID

3, IDChina Telecom, CN

China Unicom, CN

China Mobile, CN

Globe, PH

**Digi, MY

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Gb

yte

pe

r re

po

rte

d S

IM p

er

mo

nth

Total mobile service revenue per SIM and month dev. 2018-2019 [local currency]

Decreasing ARPU Increasing ARPU
http://www.tefficient.com/

Documents

10 5 - tefficient · tefficient AB 14 April 2020 1 Industry analysis #1 2020 Mobile data – full year 2019 Indosat, ID The gig economy: 58% more gigabytes generated 0.4% more revenue