10-31-09 Complicated vs Complex

8/6/2019 10-31-09 Complicated vs Complex

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.

Jack RingSystemist

OntoPilot [email protected]

Prepared for

14th Annual INCOSE Region II Fall Mini-Conference,

10/31/2009


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Complicated vs. Complex

Leveraging the understanding = 2 = 2


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Complicated vs. Complex

Leveraging the understanding

e = mc2 or e/k = mc2?


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plic --- as in complicated


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plex --- as in complex


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Art: Jamcracker

plic as in Requirements Management

Go Forth and Stultify!


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DescriptiveDescriptiveModelModel

ProblemProblemystemystem

. ,


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Boardman, John, Prof. Stevens Institute of Technology, Systemitool


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plex as in a SoS Problematique= U * P * C where;

U = degree of understandingP = level of role proficiency

C = level of collaboration abilit

Z = model of the local system of interest= fidelity of Z to S

Beneficiaries Beneficiaries

Operators

DB Admin

Operators

DB Admin

Config Admin Config Admin

In-service Eng.

Dev.Eng.

In-service Eng.

Dev. Eng.

Systems Eng. Systems Eng.


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Simulation-Based Engineering ofComplex SystemsB John R. Cl mer

The OpEMCSS Software


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OBTW, Complexer is betterOBTW, Complexer is better ------ usuallyusuallyYear 1945 Scenario

Every Citizen a Switchboard Operator

If Navigable by humansIf Navigable by humans


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Semiotics 4 Systemicse = entity

= relation = behavior = e

RS

e e = systeme

ee

S = Stimulus, R = Response

ee= system (explicit)

e =

e

ee Entity can containe

ee= system (implicit)

e e

e

= s stem

e e

e

ee

ee

S stem of S stemsee (soft) (promulgates ambiguity)


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A Few System Types

ProblemClass Value

Space

Class

TypeOutIn

Situation

pace ype

f(t)t

Value

= f(k) = ballistic = f(O) = governor Pr = Problem Space=

Class

= = an c pa ory = f(Sit, O) = homeostatic

S = StimulusR = Response

= f(Pr) = self-organizing = f Pr Val = auto oietic

= ua on = System TransferFunction

= f(all) = autocatalytic


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Agenda Understanding the difference

L v r in h n r n in

We are learning that we need a science of complex systems,and we are beginning to construct it.

. , -

Generative SE

Intelligent SE

Work Program of Complexity

Self-Aware SE

System of Systems Engineering o e - ase


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The Essence of Systems Praxis

System1.

Problem System;Content, Process,

Behavior

System Context ProblemSuppression2.

Problem Su ression

System: Content.

Adapted from

Problem SuppressionSystem: Content,

Structure Behavior

4.t

t2

t3 ,

John Warfield


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Whole Systems Engineering

System CharacterizedBoK Updated

SituationProblem DiscernedProblem System Understood

Value of System Quantified

Effects on Problem Known

Solution Effect

Envisioned POSIWID Known

Context Adapted

EvaluateDiscover

PSS S>


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Traditional Systems Engineering

System CharacterizedBoK Updated

SituationProblem DiscernedProblem System Understood

Value of System Quantified

Effects on Problem Known

Solution Effect

Envisioned POSIWID Known

Context Adapted

EvaluateDiscover

PSS S>


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Beware Re-use?


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Essence of Complex, Adaptive

Low Med High

ExtentTraditional SE

SoSEar ety

Whole

AmbiguityRealization

c e ro emsEExtent: # of cognates (es and rs)VVariety: # of unique cognates, both temporal and semioticAAmbiguity: fog, conflicting data, cognitive overload


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Systems Praxis in Context

Problemati ue

H M LExtentVarietAmbiguity

Systems

SEEducing

ExpeditionaryPursuitGenerativeCut/Paste

Anal-yzer

Kinds of PractitionersKinds of

Critic

Infrastructures

I&D AutomationPSEs Mediation

InformaticsBiomaticsTeleonomics

Technologies

eLearning

Value Generated

oc a ynam csEconomics

Ecologics


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ModelModel--based System Engineeringbased System Engineering

The truth,The truth,

the whole truth,the whole truth,

but the truth.but the truth.

Relevant Emergence

n maImplicateImplicate

Order

Not to be confused with INCOSE MBSE/SysMLNot to be confused with INCOSE MBSE/SysML


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An input/output (I/O) requirement, IOR

A performance requirement, PR

A technology requirement, TYR

A cost requirement, CR

A tradeoff requirement and, TR

Model-based Systems Engineering, A. W. Wymore, CRC Press, 1993


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InformaticsThermodynamics

omat csTeleonomics

Social D namicsEconomicsEcologics


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Relevant Emergence

t

t1t3

Adapt Pattern of Relationships

Co-align Contenton ex

Content

Adjust GradientsStructure


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The Autonomy Domain

Low Med High

Extent

Traditional SE

SoSEar ety

Whole

AmbiguityRealization

c e ro emsEExtent: # of cognates (es and rs)VVariety: # of unique cognates, both temporal and semioticAAmbiguity: fog, conflicting data, cognitive overload

Tools < Process < The Way We Think, or Dont


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Opportunity Lies At Nexus of Tensions

Qua ity of So utiondepends on

Ca abilit of Envisioners

Challenge Inherent in

Suppressing the Symptoms

Key Success FactorsPurpose

Preparation

PracticeSynergy Conflict

Patience

Availabilit Analo s, Ke Techni ues

ofTechnology

Archetypes,Intuition

Separation of ConcernsElaboration of Information

FMEA: Cognitive Overload Underconceptualization


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Warfields Work Program of Complexity

Interactive ManagementInterpretive Structural Modeling

Discovery Resolutioncomposed of

Diagnosis Design ImplementationDescription

Situation Complexity Index

Where: N is Miller Index, V is Spreadthink index and K = DeMorgan index

a ey, . . , omp ex y easuremen s n ys em es gn n n egra e es gn anProcess Technology, A. Ertes, et al, Editors, IDTP Volume 1, Austin, TX, 153-161


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Semantics of Systemics

System Model

Algorithm

Ontology

Theory

Functor

Depends on your viewpoint


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Example: Autonomous Test and Evaluation

/5a/

Adjust/7/

Descriptive Models

Autonomous Autonomous

AS(1)

AS(2)

/4//4/

/3//3/ /2//2/Co-align designs

&generates

Enterprise

AST&E(i)(n.m)

/6/

exercises

&

observesproduces

Quality

Parsimony

Knowledge/1//1/DescriptiveT&E

Assets

/5b//6/

5000.02

Programs

Quick Reaction

Programs

Missions

(1 k)Warfighters Oversight

Models

090928 [email protected] 29


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Self-Aware Systems Engineering, SASE

Debra HurdDebra Hurd


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Levels of Human Synergy

Relationship Meaning Mediators

Co-evolve Tri-coherent morphing Joy-enabled Level of

Co-facilitate Value Out/Value In eN N-party Stewardship

Co-learn Meaningful reflection Shared knowledge claims

Collaborate Help one another Desire to serve

Co-celebrate En-joying one another Time & Space, F2F

oopera e ompa e c ons ng o wa

Commit Principled relationship Courage to plan

Converge Com elling ur ose Self & shared res ect

Communicate Share interests and values Common language

Connect Two discover one another Accessible attributes

Evolve to a CoEvolve to a Co--evolving Cultureevolving Culture


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The Reflective Practitioner

Four ascending levels of behavior:1. Know how.

' '. -- .

3. Knowing-in-action (devising while doing)4. Reflection-in-action.

Objectivist

Constructivist -- world making--Designing: knowledge-in-action, holistic, honors unspecified(unspecifiable?) design qualities (aesthetics)

Joint experimentation, Follow Me!

Educating the Reflective Practitioner, Donald Schon, Jossey Bass, 1987


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Generative Systems Engineering

When you crack open an

oak tree.

You find a nut -- that knows

how to become an oak tree --and will, IFF it gets the right

environment and.


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Locus of SE --- Folded SystemsEprise Autocatalytic

E rise

Rules

Configurators

EpriseG(IE) Self-improving

EpriseG(E) Bureaucratic

Sys 2G(S) Self-Regulating/AdaptiveZ(S)G(SE)

Sys 3G(S) -

SystemG(S) Fixed/ProgrammableZ(S)

State Determined IndeterminateZ = model of

G = Generator ofS = System


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Relevant Homilies

Those who do not read the newspapers are uninformed.Those who do are misinformed. Mark Twain

stan ar s

All models are wrong. Some are useful. George Box

Static models of systems induce false confidence. Joe Skipper

Use S stem D namics to understand the existin s stem,never to justify a design. J. Forrester

clear, simple --- and wrong. H. L. Mencken

arge, success u systems are ma e on y rom

small, successful systems. John Gall


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How many of you understand ---

. . _____

Complex, Adaptive = f(EVA)? _____ _____

How many of you-

of Intelligent Systems Engineering?_____


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ar ca onsar ca ons

The castle, Hawkins, besiege the castle!castle!

Thank YouThank You

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10-31-09 Complicated vs Complex