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Complex Projects
“I think the 21st century will be the century of complexity”
(Hawking, 2000)
Carolyn Limbert, Principal Planner, Harmonic Ltd, May 2014
Outline
● What is Complex?
● Complex Projects
● Managing Complexity
● Aspects of Complexity
What is Complex?
Making Mayonnaise? Building a Stadium?
Emergence
What is Complex?
COMPLEX
Aircraft Carrier – Complicated or Complex?
Complex Projects - Back to BasicsNew view on PM
Performance
CostTime
Performance
Time Cost
Context Financing
(Strategic Highway Research Program, 2012)
“The intrinsic complexity of projects, in part, is driven by political, social, technological and environmental issues, as well as tight fiscal pressures, end user expectations which may change dramatically during the life of a project, and government instability.” (ICCPM, 2012)
Complex Projects
Adapted from; (Dombkins, 1997)
Scope: WHATObjectives are to be
achieved
Delivery: HOWTo implement objectives
Low Uncertainty
HighUncertainty
Low Uncertainty
Initiation
Concept
Definition
Mobilisation
Implementation
Closure
Complex Projects
Adapted from; (Dombkins, 1997)
Scope: WHATObjectives are to be
achieved
Delivery: HOWTo implement objectives
Low Uncertainty
HighUncertainty
Low Uncertainty
Closure
InitiationConceptDefinitionMobilisation
Implementation
Types of Project(PA Consulting, RUSI 2006)
Intr
icac
y
Uncertainty
Straightforward Projects
Complicated Projects
Volatile Projects
Strategic CreativityCoordination
Communication
VVee Model
Waterfall Model
Emergence Model
Option Model
Complex Projects
Processes are clearThings go to plan
Risk events escalate rapidlyInnovation & learning high
Complicated Complex
Simple, best practice leadership
Expert based consultative leadership
Experimental, collaborative leadership Crisis leadership,
directive, rapid action to prevent collapse
Tipping point
Control ChaosDiscipline Expertise
System Tools & Techniques
Discipline Leadership
Programme Leadership
Portfolio Leadership
Straightforward
Independent Expertise
Influence vs. Control(INCOSE UK Capability Working Group)
Influence
Control
Influence – Control Spectrum
PurposeFocus
Value Solution
Enterprise Capability Service Product
Influence
Control
Influence
Control
Influence
Scope: WHATObjectives are to be
achieved
Delivery: HOWTo implement objectives
Low Uncertainty
HighUncertainty
Low Uncertainty
Initiation
ConceptConcept
DefinitionDefinition
Mobilisation
Implementation
Closure
Scope: WHATObjectives are to be
achieved
Delivery: HOWTo implement objectives
HighUncertainty
Low Uncertainty
Closure
InitiationConceptConceptDefinitionDefinitionMobilisation
Implementation
Aspects of Complexity
12
Requirements
What are the common challenges present in a complex
project landscape?
Funding / Finance
Uncertainty Culture
Assumptions Trades
Change
Length of Time
Decision Making
Optimism Unrealistic Solutions
Lack of Maturity Geography
BehavioursSystems of Interests
Regulatory
Organisational Capability
Ambiguity
Risk Stakeholders Dependencies
Approaches to Managing Complexity
● Complexity is subjective
● Complexity changes - Flex your approach
● Know your areas of control and your areas of influence
