10 05 27 Transmission Automation Trends

8/8/2019 10 05 27 Transmission Automation Trends

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Webinar:Transmissionautomationtrendsintheglobal

commercial

vehicles

industry

Chairperson:

DrPeterWells,Director,

CentreforAutomotiveIndustryResearch,

CardiffBusiness

School

Speakers:DetlefSchmidtWABCO

RodrigoMeirellesEaton

SandeepKar

Frost

&

Sullivan

Sponsoredby:


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Transmission Automation Trends in theGlobal Commercial Vehicles Industry

Detlef Schmidt

WABCO BU DLC Marketing Leader


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May 27, 2010

Automotive

World Webinar

ABOUT WABCO

3


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May 27, 2010

Automotive

World Webinar4

CONTENT

Global transmission market overview

Industry issues determining future trends

Usage in trucks and buses

WABCO's path of transmission automation

system (AMT) development AMT for emerging markets

Summary


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May 27, 2010

Automotive

World Webinar5


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May 27, 2010

Automotive

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INDUSTRYISSUES

Regulation

Technology

Supplychain

FleetsOwner/op

Increasing emission standards requiring higher focus on fuel efficiency

Government incentives in certain regions to push new technologies

Transmission and driveline developments seen economically most

effective in providing FUEL ECONOMY improvements

Truck manufacturers in emerging markets requiring short-term technical

solutions at lowest invest

Focus on vehicle efficiency, total cost of ownership, limited invest

Fuel being the most relevant driver of total cost of ownership

and the winner is

Increasing vehicle efficiency is on everyones agenda


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May 27, 2010

Automotive

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DRIVERS OF FUEL EFFICIENCY

Fuel price is the highest in India and China compared to purchasingpower, representing up to 50% of the operating cost structure. Fuelsavings will have the highest impact on the whole value chain.

Despite the lowest fuel price over purchasing power, fuel efficiencyin the US is driven by government incentives and overall economicclimate. In fact, fuel costs still account for 20% - 30% of totaloperating costs.

Different drivers for fuel efficiency worldwide


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May 27, 2010

Automotive

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AMTIN TRUCKS & BUSES

Transmission automation provides benefits across all applications

LONG-HAUL Truck/Trailer combinations

DISTRIBUTION and CITY Trucks

COACHES and CITY Buses

incl. Hybrid applications

CONSTRUCTION and DUMP Truckswith specific off-road functionality


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May 27, 2010

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TRANSMISSION AUTOMATION

SYSTEMSPNEUMATIC TRANSMISSION AUTOMATION

Modular System

Components are mounted to the transmission

according to their function and replace manualactuators on standard manual transmissions

Integrated System

All system components are integrated in one unit

directly built into the transmission structure

ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION AUTOMATION

Electro-Hydraulic System

Central power supply by electro-motorically driven

hydraulic pump and accumulator

Hydraulic gear and clutch actuation

Electro-Motoric System

Separate electro-motors for actuation of gears and clutch

Customer and market requirements determining optimal solution


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May 27, 2010

Automotive

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Extension to MD

Expansion to new markets

Increasing integration

10

LEADING EXPERIENCE IN

TRANSMISSION AUTOMATION

1985 1988

20001995

2003

First transmission

automation for

trucks

1st transmission

automation

system withintegrated

valves and

actuators

2002

2004

Next system

generation

First hydraulic transmission

automation for medium duty

application

Fully integrated

system with shift

forks

First fully

integrated

transmission

automation

Modular system

with integrated

ECU

2009

20+ years of innovation and experience

1996

Improved

system structure

with optimized

components

First series

introduction of

AMT in China


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May 27, 2010

Automotive

World Webinar11Modularity and standardization is key to increasing penetration

WAY TO WABCOOptiDriveTM

Most cost efficient solution for emerging markets High level of standard components with synergies for different applications

Simple adaptation to existing transmission platforms Short time to market

Min. space requirements at the transmission System integration in existing vehicle environment

Various applications to be covered Modularity from 5 to 16 speed

Add-On AMT system for manual transmission

Complete system development for OE customers

Market / Customer Needs

NOT equipped with AMT Equipped with AMT


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SUMMARY

Market requirements focusing on reduction of total

cost of ownership, specifically fuel efficiency

Driveline and transmission technology is seen mosteffective in achieving short-term fuel efficiency

Transmission automation systems (AMT) combine

benefits of both manuals efficiency andautomatics electronic control

Increasing penetration of transmission automation

systems in emerging markets will be key to

significantly contribute to global emission reduction

Increasing focus on fuel efficiency globally is expected to push AMT penetration


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PASSION


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Webinar:Transmissionautomationtrendsintheglobalcommercialvehiclesindustry

Thenextpresentationisfrom:RodrigoMeirelles

Director,GlobalProductPlanning

CommercialVehicles

EatonCorporation

Sponsoredby:


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2010 Eaton Corporation. All rights reserved.

This is a photographic template your

photograph should fit precisely within this rectangle.

Transmission Automation Trends in theGlobal Commercial Vehicles Industry

Rodrigo MeirellesDirector, Global Product Planning

Commercial Vehicle Transmissions

Eaton Corporation


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Agenda

Transmission technologies

Automation drivers

Regional acceptance


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The Mature Transmission TechnologiesCMTConstant-Mesh Transmissions

De-facto NAFTA HD standard (70%)

Eaton is market leader

Replaced in W.E. by SMT in 1990s,

same happening in China now

Robust & reliable, but requires

trained drivers

SMTSynchronized Manual Transmissions

Global MD & HD reference

Eaton, ZF & VI OEMs

Key growth platform for emerging

markets (China & India)

Robust & simpler to drive, but not

all synchronizers are reliable

AMTAutomated Mechanical Transmission

De-facto W.E. HD standard (67%)

Driven by VI OEMs (Volvo & Daimler)

Up to now limited to on-highway

applications

UltraShift PLUSdesigned for on/off-road

Easy to drive and efficient

TCA Torque Converter Automatic

NAFTA MD Standard (70%)

Allison is market leader

Bus, Specialty & Off-Road

Good drivability, but poor fuel

efficiencyAutomated

Manu

al


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Automation Drivers

Why people buy AMTs...

Safety

Ease of use

Powertrain and drivetrain

protection

Why they dont...

Acquisition price

Unproven fuel economy

Uptime and service

Fear of the unknown


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W Europe: AMTs De-facto Standard for HD Similar design used by all OEMs

2 x 3 x 2 transmission

Pneumatic actuation Organic clutch

AMT solved technical hurdles to SMT

integration

Boosted clutch linkage

Remote shift controls

VI OEMs competing for vehicle share

Future AMT adoption increase expected in MD

AMTs sell at little or no premium


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2020

NAFTA: Mixed Adoption Rates TCA current standard for MD, bus & coach, some HD

vocational: Limited by:

Fuel economy, cooling requirements, vehicle controllability

HD AMT adoption currently limited by:

Driver culture (but its changing as skilled driver pool shrinks)

Acquisition price (Fuller 10-speed & NA vehicle architecture)

On-highway vocation focus created limited 2nd user

acceptance

New US government fuel economy goals may drive

more AMTs

UltraShift PLUSfamily covers most On-Highway and

Off-Road specialty vocations


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Emerging Markets: New Frontier for AMT,

but How Distant? Total cost of ownership & lack of skilled drivers keys to

AMT adoption

Acquisition price / service capability main barriers inChina, India, Russia

Premium & public segments will lead

Brazil likely to follow European OEM model for similarvocations

New transmission suppliers will struggle with

technology

Key is in system logic, not hardware

Adoption rate is low, but all OEMs are eager to learn

and develop AMT capabilities


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UltraShiftPLUSBest-in-class Automated Transmission System

Family of highly capable automated transmissions for On & Off-

Road applications

Modular construction based on proven twin countershaft

architecture

Competitive alternative to Torque Converter Automatics

Higher efficiency

Lower cooling requirements Superior controllability

Family of highly capable automated transmissions for On & Off-

Road applications

Modular construction based on proven twin countershaft

architecture

Competitive alternative to Torque Converter Automatics

Higher efficiency

Lower cooling requirements Superior controllability


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2323


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Webinar:Transmissionautomationtrendsintheglobalcommercialvehiclesindustry

Thenextpresentationisfrom:Sandeep

Kar

GlobalManager

CommercialVehicleResearch

Frost&Sullivan

Sponsoredby:


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Global Commercial Vehicle Powertrain Systems Market

Clear Signs of Growth in Demand for Automated and Automatic Transmissions

Sandeep Kar- Global Manager- Commercial Vehicle Research

May, 2010


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Global Commercial Truck Production: Polarization of Truck ClassesImplies Growth in LCV and HCV Segments


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Case in Point: Chinese and Indian CV Markets Show Strong PolarizationTrends


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In Europe the LCV Segment is Expected to Experience a CAGR of 2.4Percent (2008-2013)

LCVs Powered by Diesel Engines

(55% Penetration Forecast for 2015-2020) and

Featuring Stepped MTs will

Prevail..DCT, ATs will

Gain Penetration

LCVs Powered by Diesel Engines

(55% Penetration Forecast for 2015-2020) and

Featuring Stepped MTs will

Prevail..DCT, ATs will

Gain Penetration


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Demand Analysis: Trucks by Transmission Type (North America),

Trucks in Operation by Class Type (2009)

New Truck Sales by Transmission Type (2009) New Truck Sales Forecasts (2005 2015)

Demand for automatic and automated transmissions for Class

6-8 trucks is forecast to increase until 2015 because they are

easier to operate and are more fuel efficient

In 2015, automatics/automated will represent almost 35% of

new truck sales, rising from 22% in 2008.

In 2008, Class 8 production trucks had the highestconcentration of automated manual transmissions (11%).

Both are more costly than manuals to maintain (require more

fluid), repair, reman/rebuild (much more complex).

Automatics cost 20 to 30% more than manuals. Comparatively,

automated manuals are cheaper and cost 10-15% more than

manuals.

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2008. Source: Frost & Sullivan


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Future Intentions of Automatic/Automated TransmissionsTechnologies Among Fleet Managers in U.S.

87% are familiar withAutomatic

Transmission.

64% are familiar with

AutomatedTransmission.

Q: How likely are you to consider automatic/automated transmissions over manual transmissions

in future new truck purchases?

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Rising Awareness and

Demand for Automatic and

Automated Transmissions


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Fuel Efficiency Enhancement of Trucks Through A Combination ofModifications and Regulatory Support

Source: Frost & Sullivan

2007 2015

Hybrid

Powertrain

ElectronicControls andModulation

Class 6-8 Truck Fuel Efficiency Enhancement

Automated/Automatic

Transmission

AdvancedTurbocharger

SmallerEngine,Camless

Engine

Powertrain Systems Modifications for Hybrid Trucks

AuxiliaryPower Unit

AdvancedThermal

Management

Lightweight Structural andBody Materials

Air- Disc Brakes,Regenerative Braking

Lighter Fuel Tank

Vehicle GeometryAerodynamic Modifications

Fuel Injection,Valve ActuationImprovements

Low Resistance Tires

Reduced EngineFriction Reduced Trailer Gap

HigherLoads

LesserCongestion

OptimumSpeed

Other Design Modifications

Regulatory Support

Low- viscosity Lubricants

Hybrid

Powertrain

ElectronicControls andModulation

Truck Fuel Efficiency Enhancement

Automated/Automatic

Transmission

AdvancedTurbocharger

SmallerEngine,Camless

Engine

Powertrain Systems Modifications for Hybrid Trucks

AuxiliaryPower Unit

AdvancedThermal

Management

Lightweight Structural andBody Materials

Air- Disc Brakes,Regenerative Braking

Lighter Fuel Tank

Vehicle GeometryAerodynamic Modifications

Fuel Injection,Valve ActuationImprovements

Low Resistance Tires

Reduced EngineFriction Reduced Trailer Gap

HigherLoads

LesserCongestion

OptimumSpeed

Other Design Modifications

Regulatory Support

Low- viscosity Lubricants


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Hybrid Commercial Vehicle Market= Smart Business At Play

North American and European Hybrid Commercial Vehicles Market:Production Forecast (North America & Europe), 2006 - 2016

CAGR 90.9 %

CAGR 99.6 %

North American and European Hybrid Commercial VehiclesMarket: Market Attractiveness of Commercial Hybrid Systems(North America & Europe), 2009-2016

Market attractiveness forhybrid vehicles is highest

in the MCV, HCV and Bussegments

Least Pressure on ExistingInfrastructure Will Continue DrawingGovernments, Truckmakers andCustomers Towards Hybrid CVs inEU and NA in New Decade

Class 6-8 Hybrid Truck Production: Hybrid Trucks to Set to Account for 8


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Class 6 8 Hybrid Truck Production: Hybrid Trucks to Set to Account for 8Percent of Total Truck Production by 2015, New revenue Streams forAutomated/Automatic Transmission Suppliers

Volvo/Mack11%


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Questions?


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WebinarQ&A:Transmissionautomationtrendsintheglobalcommercialvehiclesindustry

Q&Achairedby:DrPeterWells,Director,

CentreforAutomotiveIndustryResearch,

CardiffBusiness

School

Speakers:DetlefSchmidtWABCO

RodrigoMeirellesEaton

SandeepKar

Frost

&

Sullivan

Sponsoredby:

Documents

10 05 27 Transmission Automation Trends