1

UKADIA Annual Conference

A Dangerous Experiment Putting At Risk Universities and Creative Education?

Peter ScottProfessor of Higher Education Studiesp.scott@ioe.ac.uk

Centre for Higher Education Studies

Plan of talk

1. ‘The past is a foreign country’ >>> ‘New Order’

2. Two questions: all change or no / limited change?

3. Continuity, rupture or contingency: three theories

4. Knowns, known-unknowns and unknown-unknowns: intended and unintended consequences

5. What next?

3

‘The past is a foreign country’

Rapid growth – 50% since 2000 (Home / EU), 40% (international)

Generous public spending (with fee income ‘additional’) – but 20% below OECD average

Block grants to HEIs (although identifiable T and R streams) Price groups based on relative cost not policy preferences Student numbers controlled – but within tolerance bands Additional Student Numbers awarded through bidding Limited top-down ‘steering’ (HEFCE a planning body)

4

The Government’s reform package End of student growth – blip or trend? Tuition fees major source of T funding Substitution rather than additionality …but all HE funding increasing (unsustainable in longer

term = post-SR/2015 cuts?) No more block grant (STEM/SIVS, QR, initiatives) Multi-tier SNCs – AAB/ABB; core + margin; others Regulators jostling for position / HEFCE as eminence grise Consumers and markets: KIS, marketing and branding

5

Two key questions

Are the Government’s funding reforms the culmination of a long-term trend towards ‘cost sharing’, i.e. fees – or do they represent a ‘paradigm shift’?

Will they lead to a ‘Brave New World’ – or, after a turbulent transition, will ‘normal service’ be resumed (‘Things must change so that things can stay the same’ – Lampedusa The Leopard)?

6

The ‘culmination’ theory

Maintenance grants scrapped for most students in early 1990s

Fees (re)introduced after Dearing Report (£1K) Fees tripled by Charles Clarke in 2004 – but OFFA

established Browne report recommends end to cap – but also ‘tax’

on fees of more than £6K Government imposes £6K-9K cap – but eases

repayment

7

The ‘paradigm’ theory

‘Fee income no longer ‘additional’ – deep cuts in T funding (‘shadow of the deficit’)

No (direct) public funding for arts / social science students

‘Free market’ in AAB/ABB students – but tough SNC for rest

‘Core & margin’ experiment to favour low-fee institutions

Opening floodgates to private providers

8

… and the ‘contingency’ theory

Liberal Democrat pressure >>> generous repayments (unsustainable funding regime?)

Pricing up to the cap = higher-than-expected fees Random effects of (multiple) fee caps Steady-state / declining student numbers (Browne

package designed to fund growth) Managed market = flawed market? Shying away from legislation = regulatory vacuum

9

Knowns

‘Race to top’ in fees / ‘branding’ not ‘market’ strategies Admissions down by 13% in 2012 (flow-through =

shrinkage?) Variable (random?) pattern of shortfall among HEIs ‘Recovery’ in 2013 applications (but well below 2011 level) Decreasing number of young adults (except in London / SE) Low-fee ‘margin’ cut in half – formulaic not competitive ‘Top’ student pool enlarged (AAB >>> ABB) Slow arrival of private providers

10

Known-unknowns Generous repayment regime = (a) continuing high levels of

‘public’ subsidy; (b) reduced price sensitivity Postgraduate time-bomb (access/equity and demand) ‘Top’ universities most dependent on public funding (QR,

STEM/SIVS) Higher fees for part-time students – despite loans Chilling effect of UKBA on international recruitment REF ‘joker’ – like or unlike RAE / more or less concentration HE funding / reform ‘toxic’ – for all political parties

11

Unknown-unknowns

Impact of prolonged recession on student aspirations (applications)

Insatiable appetite for ‘graduate’ cultural capital / irresistible rise of ‘expert’ class

Unsustainable funding system = deep post-SR / post-election cuts or retreat from neo-liberal economic policies

Global challenges to West’s hegemony of higher education (decline / fall of ‘Anglophonia’)

Muddling through / institutional resilience

12

Challenges for art & design HEIs

Challenges (opportunities?) of ‘critical mass’ Limited capacity for cross-subsidy Multi-faculty ‘universities’ v. art ‘schools’ Threats of restructuring: mergers and acquisitions Balancing ‘craft’ with ‘critique’ (and the academic) Intellectualism – and research Elitism, access and fees

13

Prospects for creative education

CREATIVE & CULTURAL INDUSTRIES

Decline of manufacturing / collapse of financial services / fragility of consumption / destruction of public services – creative & cultural industries move centre-stage

RISE OF THE CREATIVE CLASSES

‘Clever Cities’, new social movements, new technologies (and cultures), alternative agendas...

14

Conclusions

WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN Muddling through to 2015 – and beyond Political denial / running out of options Restricting / cutting student numbers Apres moi le deluge (cutting into the bone)

WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN HE as critic (alternatives to neo-liberalism) – not victim (of

regulation / cuts) Winning hearts-and-minds (reaching beyond Westminster /

Whitehall)

15