1 Terrorist Use of WMD: A Concrete Threat? Dr. Yair Sharan –ICTAF Director [email protected] 2nd Annual Arms Control Conference: New Trends in WMD

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Terrorist Use of WMD: A Concrete Threat?

Dr. Yair Sharan –ICTAF Director

[email protected]

2nd Annual Arms Control Conference: New Trends in WMD Arms Control

Ma’ale Hachamisha,

February 8-9, 2005

ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

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• It is very easy for terrorists groups to acquire non-conventional capabilities (especially when chemicals and biologicals are concerned).

• Non conventional weapons are weapons of mass destruction. The number of casualties as a result of an attack will be huge.

THE TWO AXIOMSTHE TWO AXIOMS


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Characteristics of Non-Conventional Agents in Characteristics of Non-Conventional Agents in the hands of Terroriststhe hands of Terrorists

Covert use

It is possible to apply agents covertly and delay warning.

Indetectability

Some agents are not detectable in real time by present warning and sensing systems.

Small quantities

Potentially cause significant effects resulting in casualties or contamination.


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Characteristics (cont.)Characteristics (cont.)

Incubation time There is a time lag between application of biological agent

and the onset of casualties. First symptoms may not appear for days or weeks. This creates difficulties for the defense system and the attack validation

Persistent contamination

Radioactivity as well as some of chemical and biological persistent agents can deny human access to important areas, infrastructures, and urban areas. Effects may be long-lasting: decontamination is possible in most cases although very expensive.


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Characteristics (cont.)Characteristics (cont.)

EpidemicsContagious Bio-agents (e.g. Small pox, Plague) have potential to cause epidemics.(A two sided sward??)

Psychological effects

Combination of collective memory and ignorance of CBW weapons effects.


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General ObservationsGeneral Observations

Non-conventional Terrorism threat utilized by non-state actors, has developed slowly.

Terrorist organizations have caused significant economic and psychological damages. Non-conventional weapons in the hands of terrorists have been “Weapons of Mass Impact” rather then “Mass Casualties” or “Mass Distraction”

Biological NCT is the major threat. The nuclear threat has a low probability; the chemical NCT has a low impact (comparable to conventional means).

• Non state actors show great willingness to harm large numbers of civilians (e.g Madrid, 9/11)


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Lessons learned from recent eventsLessons learned from recent events

1. Bioterrorism (use of Anthrax) resulted in a small number of casualties (none in Japan, several in U.S.A.)

2. Casualties were caused by military quality agents (and not by self-made ones).

3. Casualties from Bacterial agents (e.g. Anthrax) were successfully treated by antibiotics,

4. Biological events were quickly identified by well equipped and trained health systems (U.S.A.)

5. Terrorists are aiming at most infectious effective agents – anthrax the lord of bioterrorism

Is Smallpox the next???Is Smallpox the next???


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Basic Ways for Achieving Non Basic Ways for Achieving Non Conventional capability by terroristsConventional capability by terrorists

• PrimitivePrimitive – Use of “natural”

Contagious sources (e.g. ill people, corpses)

• Technological Technological – Self made/produced agents/weapons

• PoliticalPolitical – Covert state assistance (the problem of rouge states)


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The “Technological” The “Technological” AlternativeAlternative

Terrorist Knowledge BaseWeapon Effects

Operation Choice &

Deployment

Acquisition of Key

Components

Manufacture

Weaponization

Storage and Transportation

Weapon Use


10ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

Outcomes of a simulationOutcomes of a simulation

The main obstacles Preventing terrorists from utilizing CW as mass destruction weapons are:

• Sort out a suitable agent out of huge information.

• Impure agents due to the low quality of the raw materials and the improvised manufacturing equipment.

• Small quantities that can be produced and transported.

• Difficulty of efficient dispersion.

• Manufacturing assembling, storage and transportation of large quantities of CW are difficult under covert conditions.

Self production of Chemical Agents would result in Self production of Chemical Agents would result in relatively low toxicity products, and thus smaller effects relatively low toxicity products, and thus smaller effects in a real event.in a real event.

Documents

1 Terrorist Use of WMD: A Concrete Threat? Dr. Yair Sharan –ICTAF Director [email protected] 2nd Annual Arms Control Conference: New Trends in WMD