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Strengthening Risk

Governance Capacities for

Climate Risk

Sanny R. Jegillos

UNDP Asia-Pacific Regional Center

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Risk Governance

• integrates scientific, economic, social and cultural aspects and includes the effective engagement of stakeholders

• how risk-related decision-making unfolds when a range of actors is involved, requiring co-ordination and possibly reconciliation between a profusion of roles, perspectives, goals and activities.

- International Risk Governance Council

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Increase in severity of events

• Tropical Cyclone (TC) Nargis in Myanmar (2008)

• TC Ketsana, Parma and Mirinae which affected the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Lao PDR (2009)

• Historic flooding in Thailand and in Pakistan (2010-2011)

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EM-DAT/CRED 2009 Report

• number of victims from hydro meteorological disasters have increased from 35 million on average per year during 2000-2008 to 50.2 million in 2009

• out of the 245 disasters in 2009, 224 were weather related, accounting for 55 million people out of the 58 million

• people affected, 7000 out of 8900 of those killed, and US$15 billion out of the US$19 billion in economic damages.

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Trends

• Experienced based • Lessons learned

• Changes in laws, policies, institutional arrangement, approaches.

• Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015

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But-

• Recent experiences are confusing ;• Hotspots and new historic levels of impact;• Past experiences are no longer reliable predictors

of future events;• changing characteristics of hazards in terms of

frequency magnitude, location and other characteristics.

Substantial differences in estimating probability of risk?

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Why is this critical for human development?

Poverty reduction programmes will be at risk.

Human development faces constraint.

Uncertainty due to climate change is a significant risk to achieving organizational goals.

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The Millennium Development Goals

1. Eradicating extreme poverty and hunger.2. Achieving universal primary education3. Promoting gender equality and

empowering women4. Reducing child mortality5. Improving maternal health6. Combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other

diseases.7. Ensuring environmental sustainability8. Developing a global partnership for

development

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Example of disaster impacts on effort to meet the MDGs

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MDG-Based poverty reduction strategies

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Paths to attending MDGs: with/without DRR

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1. Eradicate extreme poverty and

hunger• Direct impacts

– Damage to housing, service infrastructure, savings, productive assets and human losses reduce livelihood sustainability.

• Indirect impacts– Negative macroeconomic impacts including severe

short-term fiscal impacts and wider, longer-term impacts on growth, development and poverty reduction.

– Forced sale of productive assets by vulnerable households pushes many into long-term poverty and increases inequality.

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2. Achieve universal primary

education• Direct impacts

– Damage to education infrastructure.– Population displacement interrupts schooling.

• Indirect impacts– Increased need for child labor for household work,

especially for girls.– Reduced household assets make schooling less

affordable, girls probably affected most.

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3. Promote gender equality and empower women

• Direct impacts– As men migrate to seek alternative work, women/girl

bear an increased burden of care.– Women often bear the brunt of distress ‘coping’

strategies e.g. by reducing food intake.

• Indirect impacts– Emergency programmes may reinforce power structure

which marginalize women.– Domestic and sexual violence may rise in the wake of a

disaster.

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4. Reduce child mortality

• Direct impacts– Children are often most risk, e.g. of drowning in floods.– Damage to health and water and sanitation

infrastructure.– Injury and illness from disaster weakness children’s

immune systems.

• Indirect impacts– Increased number of orphan, abandoned and homeless

children.– Household asset depletion makes clean water, flood and

medicine less affordable.

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5. Improve maternal health

• Direct impacts– Pregnant women are often at high risk from death/injury

in disasters.– Damages to health infrastructure.– Injury and illness from disaster can weaken women’s

health.

• Indirect impacts– Increased responsibilities and workloads create stress

for surviving mothers.– Household asset depletion makes clean water, food and

medicine less affordable.

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6. Combat HIV and AIDS, malaria and other diseases• Direct impacts

– Poor health and nutrition following disasters weakens immunity.

– Damages to health infrastructure. Increased respiratory diseases associated with damp, dust and air pollution linked to disaster.

• Indirect impacts– Increased risk from communicable and vector borne

diseases, e.g. dengue and diarrheal diseases following floods.

– Impoverishment and displacement following disaster can increase exposure to disease, including HIV and AIDS, and disrupt health care.

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7. Ensure environment sustainability

• Direct impacts– Damage to key environment resources and

exacerbation of soil erosion or deforestation. Damage to water management and other urban infrastructure.

– Slum dwellers/people in temporary settlements often heavily affected.

• Indirect impacts– Disaster-induced migration to urban areas and damage

to urban infrastructure increase the number of slum dwellers without access to basic services and exacerbate poverty.

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8. Develop a global partnership for development.• Direct impacts

– Impacts on programmes for small island developing states from tropical storms, Tsunami etc.

– Impacts on commitment to good governance, development and poverty reduction – nationally and internationally.

Critical Knowledge Needed

Improve understanding of Disaster and Poverty Linkages

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Intensive & Extensive Risks – Sri Lanka

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Intensive Risk

Extensive Risk

Mortality

Houses Destroye

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Intensive Risk

• Concentrated in seismically active regions, coastal zones, flood plains and cyclone track zones;

• Changes over time with changes in vulnerable populations, economic assets and lifeline infrastructure exposure;

• Catastrophic in scale thus received formal support in relief and recovery and where structural mitigation measures are implemented.

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Effects of Intensive Risk to Poverty

• In El Salvador, the two earthquakes in 2001 led to an estimated 2.6-3.6 per cent increase in poverty.

• In Honduras, the percentage of poor households increased from 63.1% March 1998 to 65.9 % in March 1999 as a consequence of Hurricane Mitch in October 1998.

• In Vietnam, it is estimated that a further 4-5 per cent of the population could be pushed into poverty in the event of a disaster.

• In Aceh, Indonesia, the 2004 tsunami is estimated to have increased the proportion of people living below poverty line from 30 to 50 percent.

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Intensive & Extensive Risks – Nepal

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Intensive Risk Extensive Risk

Mortality

Houses Destroyed

Intensive & Extensive Risks – Tamil Nadu

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Intensive Risk Extensive Risk

Mortality

Houses Destroyed

Extensive Risk

• Increasing in Asia due to greater frequency and intensity of extreme climate events;

• More frequent, dynamic and widespread, affecting livelihoods and poverty:

• Invisible in official reporting, risks that are unaccounted for and disguise an increasing burden of risk to low income households and communities;

• Invisible to official response systems, increase burden for coping with consequences of impact since formal support for response recovery and institutional disaster risk management programmes are lacking if not absent.

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Extensive Risk

• UNACCOUNTED: 10% more deaths, 80% more affected, 20% more economic loss , 50% more houses damaged, 83% more injured, 45 % more schools damaged and 55% more damages to health facilities

• 93% are hydro meteorological hazards (1989-2009) in 20 countries studied

• Comparative analysis at sub national level reveal that risk is increasing most rapidly in small and medium sized urban centers with weaker capacities to manage urban growth, deforestation and destruction of coastal ecosystems are magnifying risk; landslide and flood risk at the local level are closely associated with poverty

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Recommendations for improving analysis

• Build and maintain quality disaster loss databases (historical)

• Improve poverty datasets

• Use intensive/ extensive analysis to draw attention of policy makers to extensive risks which provide “real time” information for risk accumulation that will eventually result into intensive risk or catastrophic event

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Trends in Climate Risk

Impact is unfavorable to Least Developed Countries

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change that “ major natural disasters today can cost an average of 5% of GDP of LDCs ” and further say that the “cost of climate change in South East Asia could be as high as a 9-13% loss in GDP by 2100.“

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Climate Risk: Cambodia and Timor Leste

• Relatively low to medium exposure to natural hazards.

• Vulnerability is a dominant reason for climate risk.

Evolution of vulnerability and exposure will depend on the risk management and good governance approaches that will be taken.

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Capacities (1)

• Risk Sharing • Technology and Infrastructure• Institutional and regulatory• Risk avoidance • Early Warning Systems and Risk Knowledge• Research, Education and Risk Communication• Community coping mechanism

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Capacities (2)

• Capacity to Reduce Vulnerability• Capacity to Monitor Risk• Capacity for Early Warning and Preparedness• Capacity to Respond• Capacity to Recover

Asia-Pacific Regional Centersanny.jegillos@undp.org

UNDP is the UN’s global development network, advocating for change and connecting countries to knowledge, experience and resources to help people build a better life