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SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT

Dr. Carlos E. VenturaKate Thibert & Hugón Juárez García

February 26th, 2007

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Acknowledgements

Dr José Martí, Dr Jorge Hollman, David Grigg (Campus and Community Planning), Alejandro Cervantes, Juan Carlos Carvajal, Jack Rong, Lucy Liu, Paul Couch  and Dave ManciniMatt Shannon and Natanella Vukojevic (Records office), Erin Kastner and Doug Smith (UBC Utilities), John Manougian (Hospital), JIIRP members (Professors and students)

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Outline

Seismic Risk Assessment Building Damage Assessment Lifeline Damage Assessment UBC Campus Case Ongoing and Future Tasks Conclusions

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Our Goals

Evolve from a Culture of Reaction into a Culture of Preparedness

Analysis of Interdependencies among Critical Infrastructures Evaluate Hazards Develop Scenarios Analysis of critical interdependencies Reconsider strategies

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Seismic Risk Assessment

Seismic Risk Assessment

Seismic hazard assessmentSite specific ground motion parameters

Soil related problems (liquefaction, subsidence, and others)

Tsunamis, etc

Direct damageBuildings

Non structuralLifelines

Indirect Losses

Indirect damageFloods

Fire

SurveyClassification and

characterization of the structural systems and

lifelinesDatabase

Direct LossesAffected inhabitants (deaths, injured, homeless)

Economic loss

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PGA / MMIPGA / MMI

Select Probability LevelSelect Probability Level

% Damage and $ Loss% Damage and $ Loss

Damage TablesDamage Tables

Building TypeBuilding TypeSeismicHazard

BuildingVulnerability

SeismicRisk

Seismic Risk

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Seismic Hazard

Source: GSC

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Vulnerability

The seismic behaviour of a structure depends on:

•The structure

•Non-structural-components (equipment, electric generators, pumps, pipelines, etc)

•Lifelines (electricity, water, gas, communication systems, highways, etc)

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Buildings

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Estimation of building damage

Building classification Structural Damage Damage to Non structural

components Casualties Economic Loss Functionality parameters

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Lifelines

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Lifelines

HighwaysRailwaysAir transportationSea water transportationElectricalWater supplySanitary sewer

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Example: Water Supply System

Water supply system

Building (concrete structure)

(30%)

Underground

Pipeline (from the reservoir to the

power house)

Pumping stations

Power House

(100%)

Underground

Pipeline (leaving the power house)

Mechanical equipment

(50%)

Electrical equipment

(20%)

Reservoir

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UBC Campus Case Study

Why modeling UBC campus? UBC campus shares attributes of a small city

47,000 daily transitory occupants 10,000 full time residents well defined residential, recreational and business areas own utility providers

Information accessibility Objective of the Campus Case:

Earthquake scenarios developed to analyze consequences for infrastructures and people.

Collect UBC’s infrastructure information in a GIS feature Seismic Risk Assessment of UBC campus is just a part of the

project

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UBC Campus Results

Approximately 400 buildings on UBC Campus were assessed

Building inventory data from three sources: 1995 Assessment Records Office Sidewalk survey

Damage Assessed for MMI VIII, IX and X

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UBC Campus Results (preliminary)

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What are the most important lifelines at UBC campus?

Power pumping (water, steam, oil), air conditioning,

heaters, refrigeration systems, telephone, internet, media, light, information systems, gas, oil

Water (drinking, sewer, storm)

Transportation Services + supplies

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Underground Water Pipelines

•Main 24 km

•Sec 45 km

For a MMI = VIII,

0.69 breaks / km

Main, 17 breaks

Sec, 31 breaks

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Ongoing Tasks

Building Assessment Non Structural Components Assessment Casualties Assessment Hazard Assessment Ambient Vibration Tests on “key” buildings Microtremor test of “UBC site” to determine

site characteristics Non structural vibration tests

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Ongoing tasks

Lifeline Assessment A survey of important lifelines within UBC campus

Pipelines (water, gas, sewer, etc) Transportation (highways, roadways, etc) Services (health facilities, telecommunications,

commerce, etc) Account for the different problems that affect the seismic

behaviour of lifelines (soil, interaction, standards, age, etc)

Important lifelines outside UBC campus that will affect functionality

Vibration tests of existing infrastructure

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Future tasks – Seismic Risk Assessment of Selected Areas of the GVRD

Source: GVRD

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Building Damage - Preliminary Results

Seismic Risk Assessment of Vancouver

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Building Structural Damage

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Building Monetary Losses

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Building Structural Damage and Monetary Losses

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Conclusions

The research is ongoing, therefore some of the results shown in this presentation are preliminary and subject to further change

Vibration test will help to confirm the damage relationships and seismic behaviour

JIIRP is a very important study which will help us prepare for and understand disaster scenarios in a holistic way

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Thank you