1 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey ( ) : President Rotary Club of Norwich District 1080 Environment Officer District 1080 ComVoc Chair Rotary

1

Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal

Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) : President Rotary Club of NorwichDistrict 1080 Environment Officer

District 1080 ComVoc Chair

Rotary Club of Felixstowe Landguard: April 26th 2012

A Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future: A Rotarians Guide

The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy Security and Cost of our Future Energy Supplies

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Increasing Occurrence of Drought

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Increasing Occurrence of Flood

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19792003

Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region

• NASA satellite imagery

• في الجليد الصيفالشمالي القطب

المنطقة تغطيةالقطبيه

• الصور ناساالفضاءيه

Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years

في ٪ 20• سنوات 24تخفيض

المناختغير كاب القطبيه الجليديه على 2003 - 1979 اثار

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Is Global Warming natural or man-made?

Natural causes• Earth’s Orbit• Sunspot Activity• Volcanic Eruptions • Etc.

Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960

Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period.

BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement

• Winter: October – March: • Summer: April to September• Compared to 1960 – in 2010,

– 13.1% less heating needed– And 106% more cooling.

Temperature changes: Evidence in East Anglia

Temperature rise in East Anglia over last 50 years is unequivocal

Data to end of Oct 20102010 is on track to be 2nd warmest year (GLOBALLY) Despite cold in UK – December worldwide was 1st/2nd hottest ever

• Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport.

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Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.

Fuel Approx emission factor Comments

Coal 900 – 1000gDepending on grade and efficiency of power station

Gas 400 – 430gAssuming CCGT – lower value for Yarmouth as it is one of most efficient in Europe

Nuclear 5 – 10g Depending on reactor type

Renewables ~ 0 For wind, PV, hydro

Overall UK ~530gVaries on hour by hour basis depending on generation mix

• Norfolk and Suffolk is a very low carbon electricity generation zone in UK• But current accounting procedures do not allow regions to promote this.• A firm in Norfolk / Suffolk would have only 16% of carbon emissions

from electricity consumption

Suffolk & Norfolk (2009)

~83gSizewell B, Yarmouth and existing renewables

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Bil

lion

cu

bic

met

res

Actual UK production

Actual UK demandProjected productionProjected demand

Import Gap

Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UKGas Production and Demand in UK

Only 50% now provided by UK sources.

Warning issued on 17th April 2012 that over-reliance on

Norway and imported LNG from Qatar will lead to price

rises by end of year

Prices have become much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas.

UK no longer self sufficient

in gas

Langeled Line to Norway

Oil reaches $130 a barrel

Severe Cold Spells

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What about energy Prices

In recent years, electricity retail prices have varied much less than wholesale prices and have also risen less.

In Real Terms, Domestic Electricity Prices have only recently returned to 1981 levels

Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers

Energy Review

2002

9th May 2011 (*)

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (at present 45-

50%)Available now (but gas

is running out)~2p +

8.0p[5 - 11]

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 15% (France 80%) - (currently 18% and

falling)

new inherently safe designs - some

development needed2.5 - 3.5p

7.75p [5.5 - 10]

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest not until

2050 for significant impact

"Clean Coal"Coal currently ~40% but

scheduled to fall

Available now: Not viable without Carbon

Capture & Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p

[7.5 - 15]p - unlikely

before 2025

* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2009

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

In

sta

lled

Ca

pa

cit

y (

MW

)

New Build ?

ProjectedActual

Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020.

?

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Future prices from

* Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011 Climate Change Committee

1.5MW TurbineAt peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes

On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year

~8.2p +/- 0.8p

Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002

(Gas ~ 2p)May 2011

(Gas ~ 8.0p) *

On Shore Wind~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]

available now for commercial exploitation

~ 2+p

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~8.2p +/- 0.8p


(Gas ~ 2p)May 2011

(Gas ~ 8.0p) *



~ 2+p

Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount

Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%some technical

development needed to reduce costs.

~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

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~8.2p +/- 0.8p


(Gas ~ 2p)May 2011

(Gas ~ 8.0p) *



~ 2+p



~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at

Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.

Rated capacity 5.5 kW

Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

Hydro (mini - micro)

5%technically mature, but

limited potential2.5 - 3p

11p for <2MW projects

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~8.2p +/- 0.8p


(Gas ~ 2p)May 2011

(Gas ~ 8.0p) *



~ 2+p



~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5






Climate Change Report suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) might be achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW.

Photovoltaic<<5% even

assuming 10 GW of installation

available, but much further research needed to bring down

costs significantly15+ p 25p +/-8

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~8.2p +/- 0.8p


(Gas ~ 2p)May 2011

(Gas ~ 8.0p) *



~ 2+p



~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5






Photovoltaic<<5% even assuming

10 GW of installation

available, but much further research needed to bring down costs significantly

15+ p 25p +/-8

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

• Compressed gas from methane from waste.

To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass

Sewage, Landfill, Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas

??5% available, but research needed in some areas e.g. advanced gasification

2.5 - 4p7 - 13p

depending on technology

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2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind

~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p

Off Shore Wind

25 - 50%available but costly

~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW projects

Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very

costly15+ p 25p +/-8

Biomass ??5% available, but research

needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW may be

1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)

techology limited - major development not

before 20204 - 8p

19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p

+/- 7.5p Wave

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2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind


Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5





needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Streamn


1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)

technology limited - major development not

before 20204 - 8p

19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p

+/- 7.5p Wave

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2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind


Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5





needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream


1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)


before 20204 - 8p

19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p

+/- 7.5p Wave

Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently

e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009

Severn Barrage could provide 5-8% of UK electricity needs

In Orkney – Churchill Barriers

Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south.

Would save 40000 tonnes of CO2

Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%

technology available but unlikely for 2020. Construction time ~10 years.

In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development

26p +/-5

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2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind

~25% available now ~ 2+p

~8.2p +/- 0.8p

Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW




needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW

(~0.1%)


before 20204 - 8p

19p Tidal 26.5p Wave

Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%In 2010 Government abandoned

plans for development26p +/-5

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be

confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity

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2002 (Gas ~ 2p)

May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)

On Shore Wind

~25% available now ~ 2+p

~8.2p +/- 0.8p

Off Shore Wind


~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW




needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p

Wave/Tidal Stream

currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW

(~0.1%)


before 20204 - 8p

19p Tidal 26.5p Wave

Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%In 2010 Government abandoned

plans for development26p +/-5

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be

confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity

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Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?.

Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 10 - 20 years.

[very expensive or technically immature or both]

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?

Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee

[9th May 2011]If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult

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Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS

for around 70% of our heating and electricity

imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria

Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another

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Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation

Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.

Existing Coal

Existing Nuclear

Oil


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

TW

H (b

illio

ns o

f uni

ts (k

Wh)

)

Existing Coal

UK GasImported Gas

New Nuclear

New Coal

Existing Nuclear

Other Renewables

Offshore Wind

Onshore Wind

Oil

• 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020.• 1 new coal station with CCS each year after 2020• 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020 - 40% of homes fitted by 2030 • 15+ GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now


• No electric cars or heat pumps

Version suitable for Office 2003, 2007 & 2010

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How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake

than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

Raising Awareness

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Raising Awareness

• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)

• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year.

• Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

上海徐汇区高第一小学

• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

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0

1000

2000

3000

4000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

kWh

in p

erio

d

No of people in household

Electricity Consumption

1 person2 people3 people4 people5 people6 people

• Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual electricity consumption

• For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER or COOKING] can vary by as much as 9 times.

Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar

• Significant savings in money can arise from effective awareness raising

• When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times

Raising Awareness

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Sustainable Options for the future?Energy Generation•Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels – generally lees suitable for other businesses

•Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation

• Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years).

• The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get!

• Renewable Heat Incentive available from 2012

• Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer

• Approximate annual estimate of generation

= installed capacity * 8760 * 0.095

hours in year load/capacity factor of 9.5%

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Pilot Lights £9 per week

Pilot lights

off

Pilot Lights turned off

during week

District 1080 Community Service & Vocations Committee

Awareness Raising and Good Record Keeping results in significant savings

St Paul’s Church, Tuckswood

Heated by 3 warm air heaters

New Strategy: pilot lights off throughout summer and used strategically in winter resulted in an annual saving of:5400 kWh of gas; 1030 kg of CO2 ; and a monetary saving of £260Or a percentage saving of 38%

• Which can spread the message• Engage with Schools• Dispel myths• Use simple messages that people understand - often monetary

values mean more• Think about our own actions.

– Tumble drying – once a week amounts to £25 a year• Can we car share when going to District Council?

– Four people travelled separately from North Norfolk to District 1080 Assembly. They would have emitted and extra 75kg CO2 extra compared to travelling together at a cost of £30 extra in fuel.

• Energy Security issues will be just as important as Carbon reduction in the UK.

• Energy Security will increasingly affect us in next 10 years• Global warming will increasingly affect our fellow citizens of the

planet in the developing world in the next 10 years• Addressing Energy Security by taking small steps now will also

help with Global Warming• Otherwise the Young will suffer during their life times.• We in Rotary have the resources to work with the Young to

combat the challenges facing us.

Rotary is a Community

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30

1.33 billion people

0.94 billion people

Raw materials

1.03 billion people

Products: 478 M

tonnes

CO 2 increase in

3 years

Aid

& E

du

cation

The Unbalanced Triangular Trade

Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years

Water issues are equally important.

Each tonne of steel imported from a developing country consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of water

Ethical Issues of International Trade

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.”

And Finally

• Engage with the Local Community / Schools?

– To promote awareness

– To Join together to get discounts on sustainable projects

• Share a remote reading meter around your club to help members/local community cut their energy consumption, improve energy security, cut carbon emissions and save money?

• Is there merit in organising a District Workshop on Environmental Issues? e.g.

– raising awareness where the individual can save money?

– Providing a sustainable and energy secure future for our children

– Engaging with the community to protect the environment.

What could Rotary Do?

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Existing Coal

UK Gas

Imported Gas

New Nuclear

New Coal

Existing Nuclear

Other Renewables

Offshore WindOnshore Wind

• 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020.• 1 new coal station fitted with CCS each year after 2020• 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020 - 40% of homes fitted by 2030 • 19 GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now

Existing Coal

Oil

UK Gas

Imported Gas

New Nuclear

New Coal

Other Renewables

Offshore Wind

Onshore Wind

• 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020.• 1 new coal station fitted with CCS each year after 2020• 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020 - 40% of homes fitted by 2030 • 19 GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now



Existing Nuclear

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Documents

1 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey ( ) : President Rotary Club of Norwich District 1080 Environment Officer District 1080 ComVoc Chair Rotary