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Quantitative Information Quantitative Information ActivitiesActivities

California Water Plan Analytical Tools and Data Workgroup

June 3, 2005

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Objectives for MeetingObjectives for Meeting

● Morning – Discuss 3 groups of planned activities related to quantitative information

● Afternoon – Talk more about a proposed method to decide how to produce numbers for the California Water Plan

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ContextContext

● California Water Plan Update 2005 Volume 1: Chapter 5 Implementation Plan Recommendation 11 – Improve Water Data

Management and Scientific Understanding

● Lists an Action Plan and Intended Outcomes

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Activities in Action PlanActivities in Action Plan

● Develop a general checklist of issues, resources, data, and analytical tools as well as guidelines to aid regional integrated resource planning

● Select and/or develop analytical tools and data in support of California Water Plan Update 2010

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Activities in Action PlanActivities in Action Plan

● Develop the Water Plan Information Exchange (Water PIE) for collecting and sharing data, and networking existing databases and websites, using GIS software to improve analytical capabilities and developing timely surveys of statewide land use, water use, and estimates of future implementation of resource management strategies

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Activities in Action PlanActivities in Action Plan● Participate in efforts by

the CWEMF to develop and carry out a plan for long-term improvement of analytical tools and data for statewide planning.

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Current ActivitiesCurrent Activities

● Collaboration – How can we work together effectively for long-term quantitative development?

● Information exchange – What role can state serve in sharing useful information for regional and statewide planning?

● Numbers for the Water Plan – How to produce Quantitative Deliverables?

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CollaborationCollaboration

Cooperating for Quantitative Capability

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Topics of CollaborationTopics of Collaboration

● Partnering on near-term studies● Institutional setting for quantitative work● Sharing information, research, and

analytical tools● Document “state of knowledge” as it

evolves● Public involvement

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Reasons to CollaborateReasons to Collaborate

● Integrated resource planning requires multi-disciplinary information

● Want to improve understanding and access to useful information across the state at an appropriate resolution

● No single entity can develop the analytical tools and data needed to answer these broad questions

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Some Current PartnersSome Current Partners

● Long-term quantitative development with California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum (CWEMF)

● Robust decision making under uncertainty with RAND

● Implications of climate change with Natural Heritage Institute (NHI) and EPA

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Addressing Institutional SupportAddressing Institutional Support

● Much interest in demonstrating performance for public investment

● Want acceptable means to report on system changes and benefits

● No system in place to fully support quantitative needs of integrated regional water management

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CWEMF Draft ReportCWEMF Draft Report

● California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum prepared a draft report entitled: “Strategic Analysis Framework for Managing Water in California” March 11, 2005

● Available on CWP web site● Suggested some ideas for possible

institutional support

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Examples to ConsiderExamples to Consider

● CWEMF draft report offers several options to consider for institutional support Some form of consortium Separate research and development unit Approved set of quantitative methods, tools,

and data Etc.

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Institutional ConsiderationsInstitutional Considerations

● Division of Planning and Local Assistance is taking the lead to develop proposals in this area

● Interested parties please contact Kamyar

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Information Information ExchangeExchange

Sharing Information Across Regions and Statewide

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Recommendations - Update 2005Recommendations - Update 2005

● Inventory existing tools and data and identify key gaps

● Design a conceptual framework to collect and share information related to statewide and regional water planning

● Begin implementation of an information exchange system

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Recommendations - CWEMFRecommendations - CWEMF

● Focus on developing a database system that will serve to manage data sets used as inputs to analytical tools

● Improve geographic representation of water related information

● Refine conceptual design for data management

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Recent ProgressRecent Progress

● California Land & Water Use database and web portal

● Created a relational database for information needed to complete water portfolios

● Linked to GIS system to view geographically

● Created a web portal for sharing

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Database DescriptionDatabase Description

● Contains water use estimates for three years of water portfolio data

● Organized at a DAU by county level of detail

● Contains crop ET, EP, ETAW, CF, and AW and urban water use by customer class and sources of supply

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Data QueriesData Queries

● Can obtain data by: Hydrologic region Planning area County Detailed analysis unit

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CA Land & Water Use Web PortalCA Land & Water Use Web Portal

www.landwateruse.water.ca.govwww.landwateruse.water.ca.gov

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Discuss Information ExchangeDiscuss Information Exchange

● Considering how to proceed● What is most useful information to host

first?● What role should state play?● How does this affect upcoming grant

cycles?

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Numbers for the Numbers for the Water PlanWater Plan

How to produce

Quantitative Deliverables?

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Big Picture for NumbersBig Picture for Numbers

● Enhance shared understanding of California water management system

● Illustrate recent conditions ● Consider what changes are

likely between now and 2030● Identify and test promising

responses to expected changes

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Quantitative DeliverablesQuantitative Deliverables

● Water Portfolios

Describe where water originates, where it flows, and what it is used for based on recent data

● Future Scenarios Describe expected changes by 2030 if water

managers do not take additional action

● Alternative Response Packages Describe packages of promising actions, predict

expected outcomes, and compare performance under each scenario

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Talk About NumbersTalk About Numbers

● In order to focus our discussion, we are calling the numbers we want to produce reporting metrics

● Reporting metrics are those items we are most interested in from the quantitative deliverables

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Example Reporting MetricsExample Reporting Metrics

● Water delivery quantity by place and time● Population by region and time● Meteorological conditions ● Urban water supply reliability● Agricultural production● Ecosystem health

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Building BlocksBuilding Blocks

● All reporting metrics consist of observable data, or some combination of observable data

● Analysis will focus on providing the relevant building blocks

● Basic information can be combined in various ways for different purposes or interests

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How to Produce Numbers?How to Produce Numbers?

● We have agreed on a what we want

● Getting specific about how to produce them

● Consider near-term and long-term

Task: Select or develop

analytical tools

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Parts of an Analytical ToolParts of an Analytical Tool

● Conceptual model● Theoretical model● Numerical model● Data● Data management● Software● Hardware● Administrative aspects

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Before Selecting ToolsBefore Selecting Tools

● We want to take a fresh look at our collective understanding of how the water management system works

● We want to interact with domain experts to make sure we capture the latest thinking

● Document our collective understanding of water management system domain(s)

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Describing RealityDescribing Reality

● We must describe the water management system and how we think it changes

● We can describe different views of what we “know”

● Describe using: Observable data Relationships This is not a skull.

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Analysis Factor ViewAnalysis Factor View

Water Management

System

Water Management

System

Geophysical Parameters

Geophysical Parameters

Evaluation Criteria

(Economic, Management, Societal)

Evaluation Criteria

(Economic, Management, Societal)

Human and Environmental

Water Demands

Human and Environmental

Water Demands

Management Strategies

Management Strategies

Demand Drivers

Demand Drivers

Water Management Objectives

Water Management Objectives

OrganizationOrganization DefinitionsDefinitionsOverviewOverview

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Accounting ViewAccounting View

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O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB

5.1Service Area

WATER DEPOSITS: SURFACE WATER: 27.6 GROUNDWATER: 17.0 RECYL & DESAL: 0.0 TRANSFERS: Not Applicable

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OF APPLIED WATER: AG: 21.8 WETLANDS: 0.6 URBAN: 2.6

WATER USE (APPLIED): AGRICULTURAL: 31.5 WETLANDS: 1.3 URBAN: 8.4 TOTAL 41.1

INCIDENTAL E & ET AG RETURN FLOWS:

0.3

AG & WETLANDS RETURN FLOWS:

13.1

Return Flow within

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39to 43

3738

CONVEYANCE LOSSES:URBAN: 0.4 AG: 1.1 WETLANDS: 0.0

CONVEYANCE LOSS TO E & ET: URBAN: 0.4 AG: 0.8 WETLANDS: 0.0

CONVEYANCE LOSS TO RETURN FLOWS: URBAN: 0 AG: 0.0453 WETLANDS: 0

CONVEYANCE LOSS TO SEEPAGE: URBAN: 0.0 AG: 0.3 WETLANDS: 0.0 MEXICO: 0.0

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EVAPORATION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OF APPLIED WATER, PRECIPITATION AND CONVEYANCE LOSSES:

Insufficient Data17

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Other Conceptual ViewsOther Conceptual Views

● Existing analytical tools all include one or more conceptual models

● Examples include CALSIM, CALVIN, WEAP, IWR-MAIN, and CALAG

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Current Goal for Current Goal for Numbers ActivityNumbers Activity

● Produce a set of “artifacts” that capture and document our knowledge of the domains necessary to produce meaningful reporting metrics

● Use the artifacts as guidance for developing and selecting analytical tools for next set of quantitative deliverables

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How to Document DomainHow to Document Domain

● We are applying a technique widely used in commercial software development

● Rational Unified Process technique Iterative approach used to define actors and

their objectives Leads to system requirements Produces a number of artifacts

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Object-Oriented ThinkingObject-Oriented Thinking

● Object-oriented analysis emphasizes finding and describing the objects or concepts in the problem domain

● Use a familiar way of human thinking and abstraction

● Describe abstract system in terms of entities, interactions, and responsibilities

● Can use the existing visual Unified Modeling Language

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Example of Domain ModelExample of Domain Model

Sailboat Mast

Hull

1

1

1..2

1..3

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SummarySummary

● Approaching quantitative work arranged in three activities: Collaboration Information Exchange Numbers for California Water Plan

● After lunch we will discuss how to proceed towards developing and selecting analytical tools

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Lunch BreakLunch Break

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Select and DevelopSelect and Develop

Analysis and Design

to Produce

Quantitative Deliverables

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System Under Discussion (SuD)System Under Discussion (SuD)

● Want a quantitative system to produce desired reporting metrics contained in Future Scenarios & Alternative Response Packages

● Expect to develop some new analytical tools

● Expect to use some existing tools● Working to decide what combination of

new and existing

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Guiding PrinciplesGuiding Principles

● CWEMF report proposes Principles for Development and Use of Analytical Tools and Data

● Principles address: Strategy Transparency Technical Sustainability Coverage Accountability and Quality Control

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Proposed ApproachProposed Approach

● Focus on one reporting metric at a time (e.g., urban water supply reliability)

● Capture and document necessary domain components to compute reporting metric satisfactorily

● Interact with domain experts to create and refine domain model

● Select potential implementation techniques and test along the way

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Common Artifacts from RUPCommon Artifacts from RUP

● Domain model● Glossary● Use-case model and supplementary

specifications● Design model

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Analysis vs. DesignAnalysis vs. Design

● Analysis – emphasizes an investigation of the problem and requirements, rather than a solution Do the right thing.

● Design – emphasizes a conceptual solution that fulfills the requirements Do the thing right.

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e.g., Urban Supply Reliabilitye.g., Urban Supply Reliability

● First analyze what is required to compute the reporting metric

● Then design how to perform the computations

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Getting StartedGetting Started

● Define urban water supply reliability● Identify other reporting metrics required

Demand Population Delivery Location Etc.

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About ObjectsAbout Objects

● Objects have an identity, behaviors, and attributes

● Objects can contain other objects ● Each object relies on the other objects to

know how to do their own thing● This allows us to do modular analysis and

design that works together

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Example ObjectsExample Objects

● Climate● Meteorology● Dwelling● Building● Land● Geographic area● Metropolitan area● Water supplier

● Water user● Water infrastructure● Government● Water regulations● Public interest group● Water source● Economic market● Establishment

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Sample GlossarySample Glossary

● Water user – entity with a desire to apply water to a beneficial use

● Economic market – entity that describes how to efficiently allocate resources

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Brainstorming ExampleBrainstorming Example

Actor Responsibility Collaborate

Water user Decide upon the resources desired to accomplish a beneficial use

Supplier

Economic Mkt.

Government

Facility

Water supplier

Deliver, obtain, & treat water

Set prices

Remain functional

Water users

Other suppliers

Economic Mkt.

Govt., etc.

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Modeling DemandModeling DemandDescribing AssociationsDescribing Associations

Water User Water Supplier

1..*

Sets-price

Requests-quantity

Delivers-water 1..*

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Modeling DemandModeling DemandDescribing a Water UserDescribing a Water User

1 1..*Water User Person

Dwelling

LandBuilding

1 1

Infrastructure Infrastructure

1

1

1 1

1 1

1..* 1Beneficial

Use

1

1..*

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Modeling DemandModeling Demandby Regionby Region

Water User

Metropolitan Region

*

Resides-in1quantityDemanded

MeteorologicalConditions

EconomicMarket

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Start with Coarse ModelStart with Coarse Model

● Begin with large domain subsets● Capture key concepts● This approach allows us to discuss a very

complicated system in manageable chunks

● Each subset will be described and tested incrementally, expecting evolution

● Can refine each subset over time

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Questions and CommentsQuestions and Comments

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Next StepsNext Steps

● Continue to draft domain representation needed to compute urban water supply reliability

● Begin detailed interactions with domain experts for domain subsets

● Others?

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