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1
New Hampshire Trends, Higher Education and the State Budget
Steve NortonExecutive Director NH Center for Public Policy Studies
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
Nashua Rotary, 11-10-08
2
Voting PatternsChange
3
4
5
6
When Will it End?(Economy.com)
7
Macro Trends
• Aging– People are getting older, fewer children
• Economic Change– Agriculture -> Manufacturing -> ?
• The World is Flat– Information, Communication, Transportation
• Environmental Change– Climate, Water, Conservation
• Migration• Role of Towns in Shaping New Hampshire
8
Age Distribution: 1970
Distribution of NH Population by Age in 1970
(60,000) (40,000) (20,000) - 20,000 40,000 60,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Persons
(60,000) (40,000) (20,000) - 20,000 40,000 60,000
Males Females
9
Age Distribution: 1995
Distribution of NH Population by Age in 1995
(60,000) (40,000) (20,000) - 20,000 40,000 60,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Persons
(60,000) (40,000) (20,000) - 20,000 40,000 60,000
Males Females
10
Age Distribution: 2020?
Distribution of NH Population by Age in 2020
(60,000) (40,000) (20,000) - 20,000 40,000 60,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Persons
(60,000) (40,000) (20,000) - 20,000 40,000 60,000
Males Females
11
Health Care (not high income jobs) Accounts for Much of Projected Job
Growth
Source: NH Department of Labor Projections
Distribution of Estimated 113,788 New Jobs by Industry (2004-2014)
Education (All)24%
Retail17%
All Other17%
Health Care42%
12
What is NH?
The Tech Corridor?
The Lakes RegionThe North Country
The Seacoast
The Capital RegionThe Monadnock Region
Mt Washington Valley
13
Geographic Variation: What Do Regions Have in Common?
Source: NH Office of State Planning Estimates
Population C hange 2000 to 2005
-27 - 50
50 - 100
100 - 200
200 - 300
300 - 1,000
1,000 - 3 ,000
14
Proportion of Population Over the Age of 65 Dramatically Changing
15
Where did the money go?
Share of $1.3 billion increase in general fund appropriations 1998-1999 to 2008-2009
10 NH RETIREMENT
SYSTEM (Including Health)
12%
16 DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS
8%06 UNIVERSITY
SYSTEM5%
08 TREASURY DEPARTMENT
7%
All Other16%
03 DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
7%
04 NH COMMUNITY TECH COLLEGE
SYS2% 01 DEPT OF
HEALTH AND HUMAN SVCS
43%
16
Per Capita General Fund Appropriations(Inflation Adjusted)
$1,029.93 $1,038.48
$0.00
$200.00
$400.00
$600.00
$800.00
$1,000.00
$1,200.00
1997 Per Capita (in 2007 $) 2007 Per Capita
What about purchasing power … has it increased?
17
Feast and Famine: 1997-2007 Change in General Fund Appropriations
(in $2007 per capita)
($90.94)
$10.20$11.91$15.36$29.17
$32.86
($110.00)
($90.00)
($70.00)
($50.00)
($30.00)
($10.00)
$10.00
$30.00
$50.00
MedicaidProvider
Payments
RetirementSystem
SpecialEducation
SchoolBuilding Aid
Dept ofCorrections
Rest ofBudget
11
18
Changes in General Fund Contributions (Education Related)
Appropriation Type FY 1997 Budget FY 2007 Budget
1997 Per Capita (in 2007 $)
2007 Per Capita
Change in Inflation
Adjusted Per Capita
Spending 3 Special Education $9,900,000 $35,990,000 $11.30 $26.66 $15.364 School Building Aid $16,000,000 $40,735,039 $18.27 $30.18 $11.91
11 Post Secondary Education Commission $1,637,593 $4,464,040 $1.87 $3.31 $1.4427 College for Lifelong Learning $987,000 $1,787,514 $1.13 $1.32 $0.2038 UNH - Consulting Center $143,000 $167,703 $0.16 $0.12 ($0.04)47 UNH - Manchester $1,349,000 $1,823,027 $1.54 $1.35 ($0.19)51 Keene State College $8,230,000 $12,239,338 $9.40 $9.07 ($0.33)57 Plymouth State College $8,430,000 $12,239,338 $9.63 $9.07 ($0.56)63 Dept of Post Secondary Technical Education $17,579,338 $25,772,228 $20.07 $19.09 ($0.98)77 UNH - Durham $35,713,000 $48,425,634 $40.78 $35.87 ($4.91)
Total GF Contributions (Excluding Uncompensated Care) $901,949,480 $1,401,853,534 $1,029.93 $1,038.48 $8.55
Changes in State General Fund Contributions 1997-2007
19
What about 2010-2011? NH Total Revenues, incl Medicaid Enhancement Rev
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Mill
ion
s $
Actual &Est Update Recovery and TrendRepeat of 2001-03 Repeat of Early 1990'S
Revenues from the General Fund and Education Trust Fund
$500 Million Biennium Shortfall
20
A Convergence of trends ….
• Over the past decade a decline, in real terms, in state’s participation in higher education in the state.
• Economic recession Increases competition for state general funds.
• Aging Declining number of children graduating from high school Increased competition for college students.
• State budget conversations will impact ongoing state support (retirement, education adequacy).
• Independence of community colleges system will likely require initial support.
21
May lead to tough decisions …
• Engage with business community etc… in a broader conversation about need to invest in higher education?
• Recruit and enroll students who would not have previously gone to college?
• Increase tuition rates faster than in recent years?
• Reduce faculty and programs?
22
All of our reportsare available on the
web:
www.nhpolicy.orgwww.nhpolicy.org
New Hampshire Center New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studiesfor Public Policy Studies
Board of Directors
Donna Sytek, Chair
John B. Andrews
John D. Crosier
Shelia T. Francoeur
Chuck Morse
Todd Selig
Stuart Smith
James Tibbetts
Brian Walsh
Kimon S. Zachos
Martin Gross
Staff
Steve Norton
Dennis Delay
Ryan Tappin
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”