Upload
louise-baker
View
217
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
Jordan Center for Social ResearchAn Independent, Non-Profit Think Tank
Amman – Jordan
National Poll #2 of Jordanian Public National Poll #2 of Jordanian Public Opinion on:Opinion on:
Democratic Transformation and Political Democratic Transformation and Political Reform in JordanReform in Jordan
Dr. Musa Shteiwi
3
Poll ObjectivesPoll Objectives
• The most important challenges facing Jordanian society• Public perceptions of justice and procedural fairness• Levels of trust in national institutions• Levels of support for various electoral models• Public support for various political tendencies and electoral
quota systems• Attitudes on the urgency of political reform and the relative
importance of security vs. political reform; • Public support for passing an anti-terrorism law
JCSR and its partners produced their first national poll in September 2005. The main objective of this second poll is to examine Jordanian public opinion regarding issues related to the process of democratic
transformation and political reform in the wake of the hotel bombings in Amman, including the following issues:
4
Poll SamplePoll Sample• The sample consisted of 1000 persons (50% males and
50% females) who are 18 years or older.
• The sampling methodology used was a random cluster sample which included 100 sites all over the Kingdom. The margin of error is ±2.5%.
• The frame of the 2004 census was used (courtesy of the Jordanian Department of Statistics.)
• The field work for the poll was conducted between the 10th and 14th of December 2005 by Middle East Marketing and Research Consultants.
• The poll was conducted with the support of the International Republican Institute (IRI).
6
IN GENERAL, ARE THINGS IN JORDAN GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION OR THE WRONG DIRECTION?
48.3
44
6.9
0.8
70.6
23.8
5.20.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
September December
Things are going in the right direction Things are going in the wrong direction
Not sure/ do not know Refused to answer
7
27.4
18.3
5.9 5.12.3 1.5 1 1.1
3.7
30.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Rising cost of living Unemployment Poverty Deteriorating economic conditionsTerrorism Corruption Water scarcity Population Growth No Problems others
IN YOUR OPINION,WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM FACING JORDAN TODAY? (OPEN ENDED)/ DECEMBER
8
38.2
26.6
10.1 9.6
4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Rising cost of living UnemploymentWorsening economic conditions PovertyCorruption
IN YOUR OPINION,WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM FACING JORDAN TODAY? (OPEN ENDED)/ September
9
TAKING ALL THINGS INTO CONSIDERATION, WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT POLTICAL PROBLEM FACING JORDAN TODAY?
(OPEN ENDED)/ December
29.1
11.5
3.11.4
3.1 2.1 1.5 2
17.8
26.6
1.1 0.50
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Terrorism Instability of neighboring countries Opposition to Jordan’s policies Weak government performance Weak democratic practices The impact of weak economyCorruption Increased number of expatriates No problems Do not know Refused to answer Others
10
48.6
11.3 11.4 10.5
4.4 3.8 4.3 3.41.7
0.60
10
20
30
40
50
60
Corruption Weak party participationLack of freedom of expression Lack of personal freedomWeak loyalty Discrimination and inequalityLack of a free press Not sure/ don't knowGovernment interference in the parliament and judiciary Refused to answer
TAKING ALL THINGS INTO CONSIDERATION, WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT POLTICAL PROBLEM FACING JORDAN TODAY?
(OPEN ENDED)/ SEPTMEBER
11
THE BEST WAY TO GOVERN THE SOCIETY
69.6
63.867.3
71.1
80.2 8178.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
December SeptemberA government whose power is balanced by the parliament.Judges who apply the law whatever the government says.Newspapers free to criticize the government and enjoy freedom of expressionLocal authorities who are elected by the people
12
66.3
70.4
53.2
25
49
27.123.8
29.2
70.9
6.3 5.5
9.4
35.2
45.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
In court In a policeinvestigation
At the tax office In the hiringprocess
In a universityentrance
procedure
Likely Not Likely Not Sure
THINGS BEING AS THEY ARE AT PRESENT, IN WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING SITUATIONS HAS ONE A GOOD CHANCE TO GET FAIR
AND JUST TREATMENT ?
13
I WILL MENTION SEVERAL INSTITUTIONS/ORGANIZATIONS TO YOU. PLEASE TELL ME IF YOU FULLY TRUST THEM,
SOMEWHAT TRUST THEM, OR DO NOT TRUST THEM AT ALL.
98 97.690 89.8
78.6 78.475 73.8
1 2.16.7 8.8
14.9 18.111.4 12
31
54
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
The Arm
y
Public
Sec
urity
The Gove
rnm
ent
The M
edia
Munic
ipal
ities
The Par
liam
ent
NGOs
Profe
ssio
nal U
nions
Politi
cal P
artie
s
Trust No Trust
14
96.1 96.2
84.7 86.180.4
75.3 77.4 79.5
54.2
2.9 3.1
13 12.416.8
6.7
35.9
17.515.2
0102030405060708090
100
Trust Not Trust
I WILL MENTION SEVERAL INSTITUTIONS/ORGANIZATIONS TO YOU. PLEASE TELL ME IF YOU FULLY TRUST THEM,
SOMEWHAT TRUST THEM, OR DO NOT TRUST THEM AT ALL.
15
93.3
56.4
97.7
43.5
5.1
37.4
1.3
61.6
1.35.7
0.7
24.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Prosecution of violentpolitical action
Prohibiting politicalactivities of the
opposition
Prosecuting peopleand groups workingagainst the national
interest
Censor and close thepress
Agree Disagree Not sure
A GOVERNMENT CAN USE DIFFERENT METHODS TO PROTECT ITS ABILITY TO GOVERN A COUNTRY. WHICH OF THE
FOLLOWING METHODS DO YOU AGREE OR DO NOT AGREE/ December
16
74.5
5.7
49.9
21.3
91.6
41.9
3.5 2.57.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Peaceful meetings andprotest?
Violent action Waiting for the nextgovernment to be appointed
appropriate Not appropriate Not sure
THINK OF A SITUATION IN WHICH MANY PEOPLE ARE DISSATISFIED WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND WANT TO CHANGE IT. WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING DO YOU CONSIDER APPROPRIATE OR
NOT APPROPRIATE?/ December
17
73.9
16
44.5
20.6
80.7
47.8
4.9 2.86.8
0.6 0.6 0.80
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Peaceful meetings and protest? Violent action? Waiting for the next government to beappointed?
appropriate Not appropriate Not sure Refused to answer
THINK OF A SITUATION IN WHICH MANY PEOPLE ARE DISSATISFIED WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND WANT TO CHANGE IT. WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING
DO YOU CONSIDER APPROPRIATE OR NOT APPROPRIATE?/ September
18
4% 48.4%
48%
Guaranteed Not Guranteed Not sure
TO WHAT DEGREE DO YOU THINK THAT THE FREEDOM TO CRITICIZE THE GOVERNMENT’S DECISIONS AND POLICIES IS GUARANTEED
IN JORDAN/ December
19
35.2
60.0
3.41.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
GUARANTEED NOT GUARANTEED NOT SURE REFUSED TO ANSWER
TO WHAT DEGREE DO YOU THINK THE FREEDOM OF Criticizing the government publicly IS GUARANTEED IN JORDAN/ September
20
0%
10% 43%
6%
16%
23%
1%1%
Jordanian Nationalist Political IslamistArab nationalist Socialist/leftistWill not vote on the basis of political ideology Will not participate in the electionsNot sure Refused to answer
IF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY, WHICH POLITICAL TENDENCY WOULD YOU MOST LIKELY VOTE FOR?/ December
21
0.2%14%
27%
12%
10%
37%
Jordanian Nationalist IslamistsArab nationalist Will not vote on the bases of political ideologyNot Sure Refused to Answer
IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS FOR OUR PARLIAMENT, WHICH POLITICAL TENDENCY WOULD YOU MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR?/
September
22
Please tell us whether you approve or disapprove of the following election methods?
68.6
52.6
45.5
42
27.1
40.5
45.1
50.7
2.8
5
7.4
5.8
The same law as in2003.
One seat for eachdistrict.
Mix of list anddistrict seats.
Party/electoral listsat the national
level.
Not Sure
Disapprove
Approve
23
WHICH OF THE ABOVE METHODS DO YOU THINK IS MOST APPROPRIATE FOR JORDAN?
48.8
17.517
10.45.6 0.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
The same law as in 2003
Party/electoral lists at the nationallevel
One seat for each district
Mixture of list and district seats
Do not know
Refused to answer.
24
8%
0.4%
15.2%
17.4%59%
Keeping the law Changing the law Does not matter to me Not sure Refuse to answer
ARE YOU IN FAVOR OF KEEPING THE PARLIAMENT ELECTION LAW OF 2003 OR CHANGING IT?/ September
43.1% of those who would like to change the law prefer a multiple voting system
25
53.7
35.6
9.2
1.70
10
20
30
40
50
60
One vote, where the voter chooses either the district candidate or the list.Two votes, one for the district seat and one for the list.Not SureRefused to Answer
LET US SUPPOSE THAT THE MIXED ELECTION SYSTEM HAS BEEN SELECTED; DO YOU AGREE THAT THE VOTER SHOULD HAVE….
26
62.4
25.6
10.5
1.20
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
The district candidate The national list Not sure/do not know Refused to answer
LET US SUPPOSE THAT VOTERS WERE GIVEN ONE VOTE ONLY, WHICH ONE WOULD YOU GIVE YOUR VOTE
TO?
27
THE JORDANIAN ELECTION LAW OF 2003 SET ASIDE A QUOTA OF SEATS FOR MEMBERS OF CERTAIN GROUPS. DO YOU AGREE, OR
DISAGREE WITH KEEPING THE QUOTA IN PARLIAMENT FOR:
75 72.969.9
82.3
23.5 23.7 26
15.6
1.5 2.9 3.5 1.60
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Women Christians Circassians Bedouin
Agree Disagree Not Sure
28
50%
14.6%
34.7
0.7%
Yes No Not Sure Refused to Answer
DO YOU SUPPORT THE DISSOLUTION OF THE CURRENT PARLIAMENT AND HOLDING EARLY PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS?
29
0.2%5.1%4.3%
90.4%
Yes No Not Sure Refused to Answer
AFTER THE ATTACKS ON HOTELS IN AMMAN, THE GOVERNMENT IS PLANNING TO INTRODUCE AN ANTI-
TERRORISM LAW. DO YOU SUPPORT ENACTING SUCH A LAW?
30
75.7
11.26.5 6.3
0.30
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Continued as planned Slowed down. Not sureCompletely stopped Refused to answer
IN LIGHT OF THE ATTACKS ON HOTELS IN AMMAN, DO YOU THINK THAT CURRENT POLITICAL REFORM
EFFORTS WILL BE:
31
25.8%69.4%
0.1%
3.5%
1.2%
Both the stability of the country and political reform. Maintaining the stability of the country.Proceeding with the political reform. Not SureRefused to Answer
WHICH IS MORE IMPORTANT FOR YOU TODAY: TO MAINTAIN THE SECURITY AND STABILITY OF THE COUNTRY OR TO
PROCEED WITH POLITICAL REFORM, OR BOTH?