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For a Population Statistical Register
Characteristics and Potentials for the Official Statistics
Central department for administrative data and archives and statistical registers
Q8 European conference on quality in official statistics Rome 9 – 11 luglio 2008
Roberta Vivio, Valentina Talucci, Grazia Petraccone
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• To widen the available informative basis, in addition to the traditional surveys
To reduce the statistical “burden” on households, enterprises and institutions
To reduce the costs of the public statistics
European Conference
on Quality in
Official Statistics
Main objectives for using administrative sources in the statistics:
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
3
All national statistical institutes have a duty to produce official statistics with the highest possible quality with reference to:
• Relevance and completeness• Timeliness and punctuality• Accuracy• Comparability and clarity• Cost efficiency• Low response burden
The standard indicators of quality in Istat are divided into process and product. Among those process component quality is the Accuracy in terms of:
• coverage • coding
European Conference
on Quality in
Official StatisticsQuality Standard
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
4
Hence, in this context, Istat proposes its project to construct:
A statistical register on persons living in Italy
and
Specialised archives linked with this register
European Conference
on Quality in
Official Statistics
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
5
Persons register
Education and training
Work
Welfare
Health
Dwellings
Foreigners
European Conference
on Quality in
Official Statistics
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
6
The project’s phases involve to:
•Select the primary input source= to select the best list for the register
• reconnaissance study on existing archives• control on their quality and informative potentials
•Plan the register:• study of the construction process • study of the actions for identifying, measuring and correcting any error
•Experiment the application fields of the register together with other archives
European Conference
on Quality in
Official Statistics
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
7
The “Tax authorities individual register”
• part of the Tax Informative System
• realized for the strategic objectives of the Ministry of Finance
• created and managed by the Tax Agency for the Ministry of Finance
European Conference
on Quality in
Official Statistics
Base input source
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
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Characteristics of the tax register
1) Population target:
Tax population (that is bigger than Resident Population = Population of interest)
2) Statistical unit: each person with a fiscal code (it’s the identification and linkage key)
3) Territorial detail: address
4) Coverage: all Italian municipalities
5) Administrative and statistical link between the tax register and legally resident population register
European Conference
on Quality in
Official Statistics
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
9
Population target and Statistical Unit
The TAX POPULATION of a municipality
is made up of Italian and/or foreign persons
- Legally resident in the municipality;
- Not legally resident in the municipality, but having a fiscal code based on actions they carry out that involve the obligation to use such code (taxpayers)
In other words:
DOES NOT include persons
NON-resident and fiscally NON-domiciled
European Conference
on Quality in
Official Statistics
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
10
Link with the legally resident population register
Populations identifiable in the Tax Population
“ALIGNED” POPULATION: the population whose data held in the tax register coincide with those held in the legally resident population register
“ALIGNED” POPULATION
Statistical register on persons
is primary input of
European Conference
on Quality in
Official Statistics
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
11
The quality testThe sample
• 3.8 millions of records • 8 Municipalities• 12 variables:
Fiscal code
Name, surname
Sex
Date of birth
Municipality of birth (cadastral code)
Fiscal address:
Municipality (cadastral code)
Address
Legally residence: (ONLY IF different from the tax domicile)
Municipality (cadastral code)
Address
Source of the fiscal code, tax domicile, Legally residence
European Conference
on Quality in
Official Statistics
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
12
THE TEST: quality assessments on macro data(coverage and matching errors in relation to the objective’s
population, non-responses)
Formal and substantial controls;***
Statistical indicators:
Simple distance indexSimple distance index (%)
Index of dissimilarity (simple and relative)Index of dissimilarity (simple and relaive for ordered
characters)Coefficient of correlation
****Demographic indicators:
Mean Age (of the population)Birth Rate Sex Ratio
Dependency Ratio Etc.
European Conference
on Quality in
Official Statistics
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
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Business register – physical persons Archive of Retired Persons Tax archive on employee
Birth registration
Tax register
LINK
TEST ON MICRO-DATA
• confirms
• integrates
• qualifies the units eligible for the register
European Conference
on Quality in
Official Statistics
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
14
SOME RESULTS
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on Quality in
Official Statistics
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
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Dissimilarity index Tax Population VS Official Istat Population Population by year
Index
Municipalities Simple
distance index
Simple distance
index (%)
Index of dissimilarity (simple and
relative)
Index of dissimilarity (simple and relative for
ordered characters)
Coefficient of correlation
Bologna 8,7 2.3 0.033 0.010 0.999 Capri 215,0 2.9 0.013 0.003 0.997 Firenze 7,4 2.0 0.010 0.003 0.999 Monopoli 1,8 3.6 0.006 0.002 1.000 Padova 10,0 4.7 0.012 0.003 0.997 Roma 146,6 5.7 0.027 0.006 0.988 Salerno 11,3 8.4 0.034 0.016 0.988
European Conference
on Quality in
Official Statistics
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
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European Conference
on Quality in
Official Statistics
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
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Fields of application:
examples of linkage
of the primary archive
with some specialized archives
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on Quality in
Official Statistics
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
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Tax register &
Archives of work and pension incomes
Nati in Italia
Nati all'Estero Nati in Italia
Nati all'Estero
Nati in Italia
Nati all'Estero
Nati in Italia
Nati all'Estero
89,1 10,9 95,4 4,6 51,1 48,9 67,2 32,8
92,9 7,1 53,9 46,1Nati in Italia Nati Estero Nati Estero
17,3
Nati in Italia
40,3 59,7 82,7No reddito Si reddito No reddito Si reddito
Allineati75,6
Non allineati 24,4
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
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Tax register &
Archives of work and pension incomes
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
0-4 5-9 10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100e
piu'
foreign countries
Non legally resident persons with work and/or pension income, by age and place of birth %
European Conference
on Quality in
Official Statistics
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
20
Tax register & Archive of retired persons
Resident retired persons in the I° Quarter of Rome by age and number of pensions Year 2004
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
meno d
i 5
05-0
9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85-8
9
90-9
4
95+
pensionati
pensionati 1 P
pensionati 2P
European Conference
on Quality in
Official Statistics
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
21
Some possible application for the Population Register
For sample surveys: direct sampling of persons
For the archives:
Statistical system on persons based on the interaction of several specialized registries on one base register
For the census: Constitution of auxiliary lists (Italians and foreigners)
European Conference
on Quality in
Official Statistics
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
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In addition….
Check and/or integration of alphabetical, numerical and alphanumeric items of other surveys
e.g.: “Place of birth” in the Census
“Municipality of residence” in the register of retired persons
……………………….………………………………………………
European Conference
on Quality in
Official Statistics
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
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Conclusions
The statistical population register is a tool that will help to improve the official statistics on the population.
To have the address allows to develop analisys at very detailed territorial reference
The important information from the tax register becomes even more important when considering that to have the fiscal code represents also the first step towards a complex informative system up until now only imagined.
European Conference
on Quality in
Official Statistics
Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008
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Coverage errors
Children in Rome
Maschi Femmine Totale Maschi Femmine Totale
2007 294 315 609 - - -
2006 12.532 11.955 24.487 12.807 12.155 24.962
2005 11.136 10.137 21.273 12.141 11.219 23.360
2004 7.381 7.071 14.452 12.970 12.597 25.567
2003 6.412 6.180 12.592 12.747 12.317 25.064
2002 6.897 6.601 13.498 11.388 11.944 23.332
2001 7.466 6.981 14.447 11.147 10.592 21.739
2000 11.193 10.423 21.616 11.594 10.828 22.422
1999 11.664 11.128 22.792 11.252 10.791 22.043
1998 11.907 11.161 23.068 11.333 10.623 21.956
1997 11.738 11.076 22.814 11.144 10.537 21.681
Popolazione residente per sesso e anno di nascita, confronti Agenzia delle entrate e Posas. Roma.
PosasAgenzia delle EntrateSESSOANNO
DI SESSO
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Correction strategy: Integration with the micro-data from the archive “Birth registration”
Istat
Aligned
population
Population
Total Posas
Coupling Total Pop.Birth registrations
2006 24487 --- 24962 ---
2005 21273 26576 23360 23531
2004 14452 26673 25567 25212
2003 12592 26372 25064 25269
2002 13498 25799 23332 24435
Resident population per year of birth. Municipality of Rome. Years
2001 - 2006. Various sources.
Tax Agency
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The First Statistical Population register in Italy is considered at the moment to be among the most innovative ones in Istat:
in particular it’s a product innovation as it will become the First National register of Persons to be available to the Institute.
Up until now, the Institute could count only on non-individual register information and more than 8 thousand municipalities.
In addition, it is also a process innovation: to construct it, a source that despite being originally created for tax administrative sources, will indeed be used for demographic purposes.
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Populations identifiable with the tax Population
AGGREGATES
AGGREGATES
“Aligned” population
Population not yet “aligned”
Population thatcannot be “aligned”
Total
a b c T
Tax population X X X T=a+b+c
Residentpopulation
X X T=a+b
