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EVALUATING HOW AN AGENCY EXERCISES FORESIGHT….

High-Clockspeed Technology-Based TrendsHigh-Clockspeed Technology-Based Trends**

Judith A. Droitcour, Ph.D.U.S. Government Accountability OfficeContact: droitcourj@gao.gov

Presented at Evaluation 2009Panel: Prospective Evaluation and Technology: New Developments and 21st Century ChallengesNovember 13, 2009

*Based in part on GAO, HIGHWAY SAFETY: Foresight Issues Challenge DOT’s Efforts to Assess and Respond to New Technology-Based Trends, October 2008 (GAO-09-56). The views expressed in this presentation do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

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TECHNOLOGY-BASED TRENDS:TECHNOLOGY-BASED TRENDS: Key Phases -- Innovation Cycle

Phase 3

--benefit(s) at individual, societal level (e.g., economic)

--side effects (<= how used)

Phase 2

--commercialization--consumer adoption

--potentially varied uses of innovation

Phase 1

--research and development

--“validation” of new innovations

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TECHNOLOGY-BASED TRENDS TECHNOLOGY-BASED TRENDS CAN IMPACT AGENCY GOALSCAN IMPACT AGENCY GOALS

Phase 3

--benefit(s) at individual, societal level (e.g., economic)

-- side effects that negatively Impact safety goals

Phase 2

--commercialization--consumer adoption

--potentially varied uses of innovation

Phase 1

--research and development

--“validation” of new innovations

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PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES, PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES, LIKE CELL PHONESLIKE CELL PHONES

2. Consumer adoption,varied uses

3. Side-effects

1. New innovations

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SIDE EFFECT: IMPACTS DOT’s/ SIDE EFFECT: IMPACTS DOT’s/ NHTSA’S HIGHWAY SAFETY GOALNHTSA’S HIGHWAY SAFETY GOAL

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CLOCKSPEED:CLOCKSPEED: Can an agency keep pace with a fast-paced technology-based trend?(organizational clockspeed = rate at which an organization introduces new products, adopts new production processes, or reorganizes itself; Sources: Charles H. Fine, 1998; David W. Rejeski, 2003)

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STILL-EVOLVING INNOVATIONS:STILL-EVOLVING INNOVATIONS: e.g., visual component (experts don’t see tech. slowing down)

Source: Prof. Babak A. Parviz, University of Washington

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COMMERCIALIZATION, CONSUMER COMMERCIALIZATION, CONSUMER ADOPTION:ADOPTION: fast-evolving trend over the past decade

• dates of wide-availability• PDAs late 1990s• hands-free phones (no

wire to ear) ~ 2003• GPS and cameras on

phones ~ 2004

• newest cell phones• have streaming TV,

video-calling• have internet access• are replaced every 17

months

• text messages numbered• 14 million/mo. 2000• 18+billion/mo. 2006• 120+ billion/mo.

2009*

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COMBINING INNOVATIONS, USES, COMBINING INNOVATIONS, USES, SIDE EFFECTS:SIDE EFFECTS: road-phoning devices

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GAO EVALUATION (2008) When faced with an evolving trend that can affect key goals, agencies may “exercise foresight” by….

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1. DECIDING/RESPONDING:1. DECIDING/RESPONDING:Evidence-Governance Options Framework

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NHTSA: DECIDING/RESPONDINGNHTSA: DECIDING/RESPONDINGelectronic driver distractions--2008electronic driver distractions--2008

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2. DEVELOPING EVIDENCE2. DEVELOPING EVIDENCE: Criteria for selecting methods to assess impact of high-clockspeed trend

Technically adequate

Timely

Capable of being repeated over time (relatively frequently, i.e., non-costly)

…..as we found for NHTSA and new distractins, it can be difficult to meet all three

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3. COMMUNICATING3. COMMUNICATING

Two key attributes

Comprehensiveness re: relevant trends

Timeliness

….. as of 2008 DOT had not included new driver distractions in key reports to the Hill

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GAO’S RECOMMENDATIONS re: high-clockspeed trends affecting safety

1. deciding/respondinganticipatory risk management…*

or adaptive strategies, weigh old vs new, etc.

2. developing evidencepotentially, use newest technology

3. communicatingmore complete, timely

communications

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POSTSCRIPT: FALL 2009

deciding/respondingDOT took some key steps….re: banning

developing evidenceNHTSA developing new research plan

communicatingDOT’s driver distraction summit, included Hill and

other stakeholders

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THANK YOU

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2nd TECHNOLOGY-BASED TREND:TECHNOLOGY-BASED TREND: in-vehicle crash-avoidancecrash-avoidance tech’s

Phase 3

--benefit(s) at individual, societal level (e.g., life-saving)

--side effects (<= how used)

Phase 2

--commercialization--consumer adoption

--potentially varied uses of innovation

Phase 1

--research and development

--“validation” of new innovations

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DOT/NHTSA: IN-VEHICLE CRASH-AVOIDANCE TECHNOLOGIES

deciding/respondingexpand NCAP* program (include crash-avoidance

info’)

developing evidenceencountered difficulties getting highest level

evidence that is timely

communicatingconsiderable communication

*NCAP = New Car Assessment Program (earlier sole focus: crash-worthiness)

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FORESIGHT FRAMEWORK When faced with an evolving trend that can affect key goals, agencies may “exercise foresight” by….